SITREP 5/19/24: Ukrainian Streets Deserted as New Mobilization Hits
There isn’t one big development today, but a series of smaller but still relevant items to update on to keep things within scope as the overall picture continues to escalate in the war in Ukraine and elsewhere. So, this report will be a bit scattershot as I cover many topics.
The biggest news is that yesterday, May 18th, the Ukrainian new mobilization strictures officially and finally went into effect. This has resulted in a flood of videos showing deserted streets, with claims that men are now in hiding like never before.
The below compilation starts with Poltava, then progresses to other cities:
Additionally, Ukrainian truckers even staged a mass protest, blocking roads. It will be not only ‘interesting’ to see where this goes and how successful it is, but in fact this will be one of the critical bellwethers for Ukraine as a whole. We know that the manpower issue is paramount and the entire future of this war rests on how successful—or not—this mobilization will be.
In the coming months, after lowering the draft bar to 25 years, an additional 100 thousand men born in 1998-1999 will be called up to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During these years, 416,349 boys were born. About half of them are already abroad. Summon the remaining half.
Further, it obviously converges with the end of Zelensky’s legitimacy in only two days hence, which even big Western media co’s like Economist are now beginning to seed into the public consciousness for a reason. This is significant because if the ‘enhanced mobilization’ takes a wrong turn, Zelensky’s lack of legitimacy will present an easy, ready scapegoat, and things can escalate against him very quickly.
In fact, there is some further evidence that such a potentiality is being prepared. As I said, last time was the Economist piece ‘reminding us’ that Zelensky’s term is almost over.
But we now have something even more insidious:
That’s right: Washington Post is now openly revealing Yermak as the shadow hand who secretly runs Ukraine. But more than that, by doing so they are calling into question Zelensky’s true power and legitimacy, in effect undermining him. Why would WaPo at this exact time, merely days before Zelensky’s presidency is supposed to run out, write things like this:
Yermak’s closeness to the president — and evident influence over him — has drawn a barrage of accusations: that he has undemocratically consolidated power in the president’s office; overseen an unneeded purge of top officials, including commander in chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny; restricted access to Zelensky; and sought personal control over nearly every big wartime decision.
And on the topic of legitimacy, they warn flat out:
Now, however, the legitimacy of the president and his top adviser are about to face even bigger challenges as Zelensky’s five-year term officially expires on May 20. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections under martial law. But as Zelensky stays in office, he will be vulnerable to charges that he has used the war to erode democracy — seizing control over media, sidelining critics and rivals, and elevating Yermak, his unelected friend, above career civil servants and diplomats.
It appears the Western CIA-run press is trying to curtail Zelensky’s power so they can bring him to the negotiating table in the near future, as signals for that are already increasing elsewhere in the Western press. Zelensky, however, knows that his power is entirely contingent on the continuation of war: as soon as anything is frozen, he immediately loses credibility and even relevance. Rezident_UA channel has reported Zelensky is now showing in third place behind Zaluzhny and even Budanov in national polls.
Zelensky’s plan to expand the war for now consists of things like the following:
I agree with this X thread on Anatoli Shari’s recent statements on the matter:
Ukrainian journalist and blogger in exile Anatolii Sharii about the recent trend with the calls to allow Ukraine to strike internationally recognized borders of Russia with foreign weapons and the scary prospects:
''What if Kiev deliberately provokes a strike, atleast tactical (nuclear) one, at least a small nuclear bomb, even a tiny nuclear bomb and the loss that is now happening in the battlefield and which is clearly connected with the corruption, with theft, with the stupidity of Zelensky, with the abomination of his entourage and so on. They will reformat it (the war) into something new. So when the strike happens, if God forbid there will be a strike with tactical nuclear weapons, everyone will again forget that Zelensky is a madman, that those around him are thieves, that they stole everything and so on and on. All of it will be forgotten. All the talk will be about the nuclear weapons, about opening Pandora's box and so on. Maybe they're doing this on purpose... ... Understand, the provoking of a Russian Federation strike in such way is beneficial for the government. They will increase the mobilization. So there will be precisely an excuse, ''look, what now? There is nothing we can do anymore. Now we need to throw everything at them. Lets recruit the 20-year-olds.'' Which they're already talking about and so on. Think about it.''
He makes interesting point. I would also put the strikes on Crimea and especially the recent attack on Novorossiysk port, the most critical in Russia into the same category with Zelensky looking for a major response from Russia. As long as Russia doesn't outright kill Zelensky himself any other retaliation is fine with Zelensky. He would use this opportunity to ask for more weapons, money and bigger support.
In short: Zelensky is desperate to use any excuse in escalating the war and inviting NATO into it. He knows the only way he can stop Russia is by embroiling the U.S. into the conflict, and he can do that by repeatedly pushing red lines against Russia in order to force Russia to react against NATO. But there is little chance it will work, as NATO has thus far demonstrated surprising risk aversion to the prospect of facing off with Russia.
On the other hand, it must be said that there remains a cadre of hardline hawks within NATO countries which is clearly pushing for more escalation as well:
From the above new NYT piece:
Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment.
This was followed by a lot of noise like the following, with claimed German MPs wanting to position missiles on the Polish border to create a ‘no fly zone’ over west Ukraine:
The problem is, all these things are cyclical and have been ‘trotted out’ a dozen times before whenever NATO starts getting worried and desperate. For instance, look at the date of this identical report:
And of course, that went no where as well, as most likely the new ‘threats’ will do. We can see that the warhawks most closely aligned with or directly controlled by the Davos/Bilderberg cabal are barking loudest with threats of existential collapse:
For example, there are continued reports like the following:
🇫🇷France is preparing “super-secretive” intelligence officers to be sent to Ukraine
❗️ The French Armed Forces are testing a reconnaissance group created to support offensive operations. Such “super-stealthy soldiers” could be useful in Ukraine, German radio station RTL reported.
We are talking about the FRAN group. The level of skill of its fighters was demonstrated as part of NATO exercises in Estonia.
“France is testing the competencies of a new unit that would be useful in Ukraine,” the material says.
As RTL notes, thanks to camouflage, the unit’s scouts can sit in the bushes for hours and use drones to monitor the enemy. Their responsibilities include identifying enemy strongholds, searching for trench entrances, and coordinating assault groups.
Not to mention this quite interesting video of a captured French Foreign Legion soldier who says he was active duty, having simply gotten the green light from superiors to “volunteer” in Ukraine. He makes some very eye-opening revelations and is proof positive of previous reports that ‘French troops’ were already fighting in Ukraine, to one extent or another:
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On that topic, many of the ‘boldest’ or simply irreverent voices in the West are now openly saying the quiet part out loud. Here was an absolutely fascinating diatribe by the exiled oligarch Khodorkovsky, who gives precise dates for Ukraine’s forthcoming defeat:
According to him, Ukraine to lose Kharkov in 2024, Odessa in 2025, and the rest of the country by 2026.
I think in some ways that’s very idealistic, depending on the political situation within Ukraine. If Ukraine’s new mobilization culls enough men and Zelensky manages to put out the political fires threatening to engulf his regime, then Kharkov falling in 2024 is unlikely, especially now that we see how few forces Russia is actually committing to the northern offensive at the moment.
Another such poignant confession came from CFR wig David Sanger, who likewise underscores the earlier theory that Zelensky would not survive any cessation of the conflict:
NYT is even again trotting out the prediction for the war’s near-future end:
▪️The New York Times: Russia and Ukraine may negotiate and freeze the conflict according to the Korean scenario.
According to the publication, there is a growing feeling within the Biden administration that the next few months could be decisive as at some point the two sides could finally move to a negotiated truce similar to the one that ended active hostilities in Korea in 1953.
The problem is, Putin has now confirmed our theories and openly expressed the idea that Zelensky’s legitimacy is a problem for Russia to negotiate with. Watch the end of this video:
“Such documents need to be signed by legitimate leadership.”
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Meanwhile, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas says another one of the quietest parts aloud—Russia should be entirely broken up:
She argues that it’s totally fine for countries to be separated into smaller units of nations. Oh, really? So, the independence of the Donbass Republics from Ukraine was likewise completely acceptable as per ‘Rules Based Order’ and ‘Rule of Law’. That’s great to know.
Jests aside, it shows the type of craven, feckless, unprincipled and totally amoral puppets at the top of the West’s pyramid of rulership. There are no principles, only arrant hypocrisy and lies.
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Some other sundry items.
First, let’s update on the Belbek base strike in Crimea. I wrote a long report last time about Russia’s failures there, but new information appears to suggest it may not have been quite as large of a failure as we thought. You see, it’s become more evident that the destroyed planes at the base were likely old part donors and already inoperable, thus not able to be scrambled out:
Satellite images confirmed: Ukraine spent ATACMS on a barrel of kerosene. Ukrainian media published satellite images of the consequences of two missile attacks on the Belbek military airfield in Sevastopol. It is alleged that two aircraft and a structure near the runway (preliminarily, a tank with jet fuel) were hit . For comparison, the satellite fixation from May 1 and May 16 is given.
However, if you compare the latest photos with the old ones from 2023, you can be convinced that both affected aircraft had been in the same place for a long time - therefore, these were long-out-of-service aircraft, taken out of service. In the photographs you can also see fake images of fighters applied to the strip to deceive the enemy.
Apart form newly surfaced photos showing old scrapped planes, the biggest piece of evidence was the discovery of satellite photos from October 2023 which appeared to show the same two planes roughly in a similar position as where they were just ‘destroyed’. Note the date on the photo below:
This thread figured it out:
He states that the Russian base actually does have hardened aircraft shelters right next to where the Mig-31s were stationed:
And he points out another satellite photo showing that the entire base was abandoned of virtually all craft just weeks ago (just as I had reported), but oddly the two Mig-31s remained in the same position:
Note the date above, and compare to the photo of them ‘destroyed’:
He concludes:
So, are the Russians really stupid? Or is something else going on? The clear possibility is that the Mig-31s were decoys designed to attract the ATACM attack. The Russians have plenty of nonfunctional Mig-31s to use as decoys. Hundreds were built in the 1980s, but they were retired in the 1990s because they were expensive to operate and had a limited service life.
The Mig-31s presently in service are produced by refurbishing the old ones at the Sokol Aviation Plant in Nizhny Novgorod. The refurbishing process adds about 1000 hours of service life to the planes. Now, 1000 hours is 200 5-hour patrols, so it’s easy to see that lifetime-expired Mig-31s could be available for use as decoys in addition to old, non-updated ones.
That being said, while it’s true that likely no truly valuable planes were destroyed, the attack did still penetrate the AD and blew up a large fuel warehouse right behind where the Mig-31s were. Also, the S-400 system was still hit.
However, last night Ukraine launched what was said to be another absolutely massive attack on Crimea, with UA channels claiming literally every single Crimean base was under heavy attack.
Now Russian sources claim everything was successfully reflected, with numerous ATACMS shot down. But Ukrainians claim two ships—a minesweeper and a corvette—were hit and destroyed by ATACMS in Sevastopol bay. So: did Russians learn that quickly from their mistakes? We’ll have to wait for satellite BDAs and see.
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A large-scale attack on Novorossiysk was likewise reflected with dozens—or, according to some reports, hundreds—of drones shot down. This was the only known damage done:
A tiny burn mark on top of one of the refineries there.
The air defense looked quite extraordinary in shooting down the drones:
Pro-UA top OSINT confirmed no damage to Novorossiysk port:
Meanwhile, Russia’s hit on Lvov is now seen to have wiped out a major gas facility:
The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.
The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed.
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Interesting note:
Forbes writes about the worrying accelerating of the "chain of elimination" of the Russian Army – this is the process from target detection to its elimination. So in recent weeks, several helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed at once. Previously, strikes were delivered with a delay of several hours, but now they count by minutes. This was largely due to the introduction of new communication systems in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The publication also writes about the critical shortage of air defense missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This follows another new Russian military satellite having gone up
Information has emerged about the payload of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle, which was launched on May 17 from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
In addition to the spacecraft launched in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense, six spacecraft produced by the private Russian company Sputniks were launched into orbit.
Two of them are Zorkiy-2M Earth remote sensing satellites, and the other four are satellites of the SITRO-AIS automatic identification system, which tracks sea vessels.
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Satellite images appeared which reportedly show the extent to which NATO is being demilitarized by the Ukrainian conflict. A large armor storage site in Italy has been nearly emptied out of various things like M113s, M109Ls, etc.:
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Russia continues advancing on the Kharkov and other fronts. The pro-UA side claims things have slowed down in Kharkov while forgetting that this is precisely the Russian plan: not to effect a blitzkrieg in the north but merely use it to divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts while capturing areas there. This has already bore fruit as Rabotino was said to have been finally recaptured in full:
Which did not pass notice with Western MSM:
A few more notable hits from “Jihad Julian”:
Now, there are reports that Klescheyevka near Bakhmut has also been totally recaptured. Ukrainian channels in the meantime complain of “heavy losses” in the Volchansk fight in north Kharkov:
By the latest maps, Volchansk appears something like 40-50% taken, with Russian forces said to have begun crossing the Vovcha river which runs through its center:
Syrsky himself commented, in the process confirming some of the new Russian units activated in this region:
He names the 6th Army, with the 11th and 44th Army Corps. The 6th is the main combat element of the new Leningrad Military District. The 11th Army Corps is the one based in Kaliningrad, and is essentially the Baltic Fleet troops. The 44th is apparently another new corps from the Leningrad District, which the UK intel commented on over a month ago:
It looks like their above question was answered as to whether Russia would actually utilize this corps.
And:
Currently, 12 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate are involved in the Kharkiv direction, and the enemy's General Staff is already assessing the situation as critical. The two main problems are the lack of readiness of defensive fortifications and the lack of connections. How long the Kraken Nazis and the GUR special forces will last is unknown. At the moment, Kiev is faced with a reality - in each brigade, no more than two battalions have the maximum combat capability.
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Lastly, Sumy rumors continue unabated:
Sumy region of Ukraine is preparing for defense.
There were shots of the next dumps "dragon's tooth", as if no one had noticed them before. But now, in anticipation of the Russian offensive from day to day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are asking the question-and when will they be deployed?
Sumy border guards are driven into fortifications, given an additional BC and weapons. Vsushnikam in this direction for the most part pay 10 thousand hryvnia instead of 100, they say the money from Washington has not yet arrived, and as they come - there will be full salaries. Really, and explain yesterday's selyukam.
Police and Sbushniki evacuate their families from the region, and they themselves are prohibited from leaving the territory of their service.
The same Russian mil channel which posted “soon” to the Kharkov incursion days before troops crossed the Kharkov border has now also posted this teasing nugget:
But the most interesting rumor of all is the following:
Another source:
The Russian Armed Forces are increasing their air force in the Republic of Belarus. They are also accumulating forces and resources in the southern (Ukrainian) direction
Recall that the only two real cities Russia could possibly use Belarus as a staging area and springboard for are either Kiev or Chernigov:
It could all be maskirovka, of course—but it certainly is thought-provoking. It’s in Russia’s best interest to stretch the front as much as possible and totally break Ukraine’s ability to resist, exhausting their units. The only question is how much of the newly-raised forces does Russian command dare commit to such a long-term operation, and how much heavy armor and gear does Russia have to equip another such large force.
Interestingly, in the new NYTimes Oped by Rob Lee and Michael Kofman, they openly admit the latest tactic is exhausting Ukraine’s best brigades for precisely the reason I’ve outlined for months—they are being whisked willy-nilly to and fro to plug gaps because Russian logistics agility is superior:
The Harry and Lloyd of analysts correctly spell out Russia’s objective:
Russia’s aim is not to take Kharkiv, but to menace it by advancing toward the city and threatening it with artillery. While Russia lacks the forces to assault the city itself, the operation is designed to create a dilemma. Ukrainian forces are already stretched relatively thin; by drawing Ukraine’s reserves and better units to the defense of Kharkiv, the Russian attack weakens other parts of the front line. Russia remains focused on occupying the remainder of the Donetsk region in the east, looking to seize key transit hubs and population centers.
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A couple videos about Ukraine’s ongoing fortifications problem; a Ukrainian soldier inspects the rear line in fury:
Another one says everything was stolen:
A Russian video demonstrating why the fortifications were such failures—Lancet drones kept blowing up all the Ukrainian trench-building equipment in the north:
And the most demonstrative one of all—Ukrainian workers complain that Russian Lancets took out all their trench diggers:
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A Freudian slip by cookie monster:
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And a last piece of excellent content—a new mini-doc about the taking of the infamous Terrikon or Slag Heap in Avdeevka by the heroic 114th Brigade (former DPR). This piece is extremely revealing about some of the things I’ve written so much about, particularly the unit autonomy and initiative that exists in the larger Russian Armed Forces framework. This should single-handedly dispel any NATO lies about “centralized command” merely ordering the mindless “drone-worker” soldiers to their deaths. In fact, the battalion commander here openly reveals his brigade superior gave him total freedom to act accordingly, setting their own plan for the capture of this all-important node.
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Estonian PM Kaja Kallas calls for the creation of ethnic enclaves in Russia, while criticizing the creation of the DDonbass republics, Abkhazia, south Ossetia, Catalonia, etc. other similar enclaves in Europe, which makes her a hypocrite. She doubles down on her ethnic hypocrisy by persecuting and suppressing the ethnic Russian minority in her own country. Just call her Kaja "The Bigot" Kallas.
Russia's patience, restraint and honorable warfighting in the face of NATO's reckless belligerence will be its real victory in the fullness of time. Each instance of Russia refusing to take the provocative low-fruit bait must be infinitely infuriating for their antagonists and of great interest to their undecided, potential allies. I find it as admirable as it is inspiring.
Thanks for the update Simplicius - live long and prosper!