SITREP 5/1/24: The Russian Steamroller Rolls On as Ukraine Braces for Impact

Let’s start things a little differently this time and go straight to battlefield updates, as the Russian forces continue to make headway in a number of key sectors.

On the Avdeevka axis there have been several noteworthy gains since last time.

Firstly, the large gap area between Arkhangelsk and Keramik has been completely taken, circled in yellow below:

Arkhangelske itself is now also being stormed with a portion of it reportedly occupied by Russian troops, seen above the yellow arrow.

And now even Sokol/Sokil on the west side is being approached, with Russian troops moving up Karl Marx Avenue from Soloviev and engaging in battles with AFU troops on the outskirts of the small settlement.

Zooming out, we can once again see that the key hub of the region, Kostantinovka, is slowly being enveloped by the salients pushing in from Ocheretino and Chasov Yar, with the Ocheretino, the southern portion of the pincer now 10km from cutting Konstantinovka’s MSR:

In the north, RF units of the 98th Airborne Division advance in Chasov Yar not only directly head on, but bypassing the easternmost portion to the south where Russian troops have now been geolocated to passing over the Seversky-Donets canal highlighted in white below:

This means they appear to be attempting to put the main body of Chasov Yar into a pincer like so:

Spiegel:

Ukrainian militants are preparing for a quick retreat from the Chasov Yar area - Spiegel

“If the enemy occupies a height in the area of the village of Ivanovskoye, then he will be able to bring his anti-aircraft systems closer and hide his equipment between buildings, and we will be forced to withdraw firepower,” an Ukrainian Armed Forces officer told the German publication.

AFU soldiers complained about problems with supplies, as well as frequent strikes by Russian artillery and aviation.

According to the authors of the article, after the retreat from Chashi Yar, the northern part of the Donbass front may collapse. The situation for Kyiv is aggravated by the flight of militants from Ocheretino.

Observers of The Wall Street Journal agree with their German colleagues, who wrote that the advance of the Russian Armed Forces revealed the vulnerabilities of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Julian Ropcke at Bild is likewise despondent:

Soon the army will enter Chasov Yar: it is approaching the city from the South, - BILD

During the attack on Chasov Yar, the army uses double strike tactics, BILD military expert Julian Röpcke previously reported. The Armed Forces directly attack the Kanal microdistrict to the east of the city and also bypass it from the North and South, passing through the villages of Bogdanovka and Ivanovskoye (Krasnoye). In the center and north, the Armed Forces maintain the line.

Now, on the southern flank of the Armed Forces, they managed to cross the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal and advance towards the city.

"The Forces have crossed the canal at Chasov Yar, 1 km southeast of the town. It is only a matter of time before they enter the town through the East or the South,” writes Röpcke.

Bild further writes:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough soldiers to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, reports the German Bild.

"The best soldiers have been killed, wounded or on almost continuous duty. Many are absolutely exhausted because rest and recovery phases are impossible due to lack of personnel. This reduces their combat effectiveness and morale," the publication notes.

A new wave of mobilization will not be able to solve the personnel shortage, because the recruits do not receive good training and do not know how to use weapons.

In fact, here’s how the often-prescient Arestovich predicted the upcoming Russian efforts for this summer:

The events of the summer, according to Arestovich, will develop like this. The Russian army makes a breakthrough to Konstantinovka west of Chasova Yar, and in the Ocheretino area develops an offensive towards Pokrovsk. It is unclear what will happen further north in the area of Belogorovka-Seversk. The final task is to reach the Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka-Toretsk line by the end of June, and in September-November the battle for Slavyansk.

You can see that the two extremely key cities of Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka are nearly equidistant from the latest Ocheretino salient, so it’s likely Russian forces will continue developing both directions at the same time, finding the freest gaps to advance through like water flowing through areas of least resistance:

There are other advances in Urozhaynoye (Harvest), Rabotino, and even Kupyansk region, but for now this will suffice.

Moving on.

Let us touch on the topic of Ukrainian aid and prospects. Once the riotous fevers of post-aid jubilation cooled, Ukrainians have found themselves facing stark realities. I reported on it last time, but now we have even clearer confirmations of just how vaporous the promises may have really been.

The pro-UA commentariat is wailing from the soul that despite boisterous fanfare no aid has actually yet arrived, and much of the mainstays are not even due to be shipped for a long time:

He goes on to report:

Zelensky appeared to confirm this:

This follows what I wrote in the last report about U.S. merely beginning to take orders for materiel that can take 1-2 years to arrive.

This is greatly hampered by a sclerotic defense industry which is experiencing not only soaring costs but also great hesitancy and doubt:

For instance this report:

Some contractors do not want to enter into long-term contracts with the US Department of Defense with fixed prices to replenish weapons supplied from the Pentagon stockpile to Ukraine, according to a report by the GAO Congressional Accountability Office.

According to the department, the US military departments have concluded or are planning to conclude in the near future multi-year contracts for the purchase of five types of weapons supplied to Ukraine. But Pentagon officials and contractor officials told GAO they are facing challenges in implementing those plans. Thus, a number of contractors are reluctant to enter into long-term agreements because of their fixed price.

Russian analyst Starshe Eddy made an insightful post precisely on this tack:

What is also interesting for Ukrainians with NATO supplies is that almost all improvements in the transferred armored vehicles and artillery, both in terms of ease of use and security, are the work of the crests themselves. Both effective and not very effective, but mostly handicraft. Factory modifications are mainly given to equipment that is in a state that requires major repairs - be it old Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers, or Western vehicles. And improvements are mainly carried out within the framework of existing pre-war projects and developments, practically without taking into account the experience of the war.

We also have room to grow in this area, but the configuration of the armor and additional protection of the same T-72B3 and T-90M, which go to the troops with UVZ, has already been changed several times, and will continue to be changed as the threat picture transforms. How will the recently withdrawn Abrams from the front change before returning there? The question here is rather whether they will have somewhere to return to.

The enemy’s strengths in this part are mainly concentrated on the territory of Ukraine itself and mainly in the development of drones - the improvement of the same drones there is now progressing at a pace that is faster than similar developments by NATO, due to the constant communication of developers with those who use these weapons.

Why is this happening? In general, everything is quite simple. NATO never perceived this war as something in which it was absolutely necessary to invest all its resources, and its industry still follows a cost-minimizing path that does not involve actively improving the transferred equipment, much less rapidly improving it. Pan-European bureaucratic processes, which have turned almost any Western military project into an endless bagpipe of papers and meetings, only exacerbate the problem.

For them. For us, of course, they simplify it.

This was underlined by Russian hacker group Beregini which released a report detailing how almost all the German Leopard 1A5 tanks given to Ukraine had defects:

On the other hand, Russian supplies, strikes, and groupings continue to increase. For instance, this update from defense analyst Konrad Muzyka:

"We have reached the point where the situation on the front is the worst since March 2022. The numerical advantage of the Russians is constantly growing, as is the number of attacks. Ukraine did not survive the darkest hour. It's just about to start."

It’s compounded by massive troop woes:

Summary from the above:

The 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered very heavy losses in soldiers, and also lost 40 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 5 Abrams tanks.

Forbes writes about this.

“When Ukrainian defenses collapsed a little over a week ago near the village of Ocheretino, a few miles west of the ruins of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian command did what it usually does in a crisis - it deployed the 47th mechanized “emergency brigade” there, trained by NATO instructors and riding on Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and M-109 self-propelled guns,” the publication writes.

But as Forbes notes, the 47th Brigade was unable to stop Russia's 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade from capturing Ocheretino last week and deepening a 5-mile salient that has cut like a knife into Ukrainian territory.

The brigade was actually in the process of being withdrawn from the front to recover when the Russian 30th Brigade attacked Ocheretino. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping "Donetsk" ordered the 47th to turn around and return to battle, where it suffered huge losses, Forbes writes.

The publication recalls that the 47th brigade led the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Rabotino back in June and suffered heavy losses in Russian minefields. 4 months later the brigade was thrown 100 miles into the massacre in Avdeevka. The city fell in February, and the 47th remained to cover the retreat and then moved to support the flank at Ocheretino.

“It suffered heavy casualties and lost at least 40 of its approximately 200 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 5 of 31 Abrams tanks. The brigade is in dire need of rest, reboot and reorganization,” Forbes writes.

And Washington Post indirectly dropped another bombshell when they finally admitted that Zelensky’s laughable casualty figure was fake, meant to bolster morale, and that the real number is likely significantly higher—something those capable of breathing through their nose have long known:

https://archive.ph/N7JTY

In fact, the U.S. is reportedly running out of Ukrainian men to train:

https://www.rt.com/russia/596761-ukraine-troops-running-out/

Rezident UA reports that up to 35% of AFU servicemen went AWOL during European training and were never found—a number that increases each year:

#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff does not consider the training of Ukrainians abroad to be an effective model, last year almost 20% of men did not return, this year the percentage increased to 35%.

In light of the above, Western figures continue futilely peacocking by threatening to send troops:

Former British Minister of Defense and current Member of Parliament, James Heappey, supported Macron's idea of sending Western troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainians.

When asked by a journalist if British troops should be sent to Ukraine, he answered affirmatively.

And the U.S. Army Special Forces interestingly begin fast-tracking Ukrainian language courses to recruits as if in anticipation of future deployment to the country:

A brief mention about the Kerch Bridge. There continue to be ‘reports’ that Ukraine is gearing up to strike the bridge as early as May 7-9 in time for Putin’s inauguration, in order to mar it.

Foreign SIM systems confirm the transfer of at least 100 modified ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for a range of 300 kilometers. Taking into account the use of ADM-160 MALD deception missiles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a powerful arsenal to attack the Crimea. The next attack is expected in early May for Putin's inauguration on May 7 and May 9. Crimea is saturated with air defense systems, our people are waiting for an attack and preparing.

From Rezident UA:

Our source in the OP General Staff said that the first introductory instructions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces units on Operation Crimean Bridge have been received. A combined strike from water/underwater/aerial UAVs, ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile launches is being prepared.

And from Legitimny:

Our source reports that, for significant damage to the Crimean bridge, it is necessary to expend almost all the long-range missiles transferred by the partners. And then, this will put the bridge out of action for 2-3 months.

This, of course, will partially disrupt the holiday season in Crimea, but will not affect the course of hostilities in any way. It will just be a loud and expensive PR campaign. Ukraine will spend a lot of resources, but will receive minimal profit; in the long run this will turn out to be a huge problem and another miscalculation of the OP.

The only thing that experts cannot say now is what the Kremlin’s response will be to the next increase in the stakes in the game (someone is deliberately provoking it).

More likely:
- Ukraine will be cut off by 70% of all electricity and distribution stations will be constantly hit.
- Ukraine will be deprived of its gas trump card. Most likely, the UGC will somehow be disabled.
- the infrastructure of railways and bridges will be more severely destroyed. Perhaps the bridges will be hit with something very large and powerful, in order to immediately “topple” them with one blow.
- they will start hitting the ports hard again.

Overall: life in Ukraine will become even worse and more difficult for the population. The Ukrainian authorities know this, but they carry out the instructions of those who pay for this “holiday” and pay office fees for this “cinema.” Take care of yourself! For the authorities, you are just a tool for PR and making money.

Ever since Ukraine has received new ATACMs batches, there have been several large-scale strike attempts already recorded, including one in Crimea days ago which had inconclusive results. One report pointed to Russian AD successfully intercepting 10-12 ATACMs missiles, while grainy satellite images did show some ‘questionable’ marks on the airfields which could have potentially been ‘semi-successful’ hits, but no one is quite certain.

Today, a new video showed an ATACMs striking a concentration of Russian troops in Lugansk, again with questionable results.

But the point is: Ukraine has them and has been using them. A strike on the Kerch is not out of the question as the above rumor mill indicates. But it’s unlikely to succeed as the accuracy of the missiles is not high enough to do concentrated damage.

Furthermore, reports continue to stream out about just how badly Western tech has been degraded by Russia’s progressively improving EW capabilities.

Last time we wrote about the GLSDB debacle, now the vaunted Excalibur GPS-guided 155mm artillery round has been exposed as well:

The effectiveness of Ukraine's Excalibur GPS-guided rounds decreased from 70% to 6% within six weeks as Russia adapted and employed various EW assets to counter them. Source: https://congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116957/witnesses/HHRG-118-AS35-Wstate-PattD-20240313.pdf

The Excalibur was reduced to 6% effectiveness? That’s virtually useless.

By the way, that goes to show why Russia’s Krasnopol is superior: it has laser-guided capability which is un-jammable in the same way.

Finally, this all dovetails with continued speculations about the next Russian offensive.

I’ll share a few rumblings and rustlings vis-a-vis the Kharkov direction in particular, which is increasingly a focal point of worry for Ukraine.

First, the Financial Times has now thrown its hat in the ring for the Kharkov direction:

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 The Russian Federation is preparing for a major offensive at the end of May or in June, sources in the Ukrainian General Staff told the Financial Times.

According to them, ahead of this operation, Russia is launching missile strikes on Kharkov and other strategically important cities, "softening the battlefield."

A source in the Ukrainian Armed Forces told Bild that he fears an attack on Kharkov involving 20-40 thousand Russian soldiers.

💬 "Then we will have to decide whether we want to defend the north or the east. It is impossible to do both," he said.

https://archive.ph/vkzxc

Interestingly, satellite photos reportedly show Russia building a new airfield right on the opposite side of the Kharkov border:

Western media, citing Satellite images, report that Russia has started building a new Airfield 70 km from Ukraine in the Belgorod region.

The length of the runway is approximately 1800 meters. This is sufficient for different types of Aircraft.

This confirms the Plans to shift the front from the border to the west.

Could it be in preparation for increased aerial support for a new northern campaign?

As the above FT article noted, some are claiming Russia would utilize only 20-40k troops to enter from the north—hypothetically. This isn’t enough to capture the entire region or Kharkov city itself, however that may not be the point.

As the implication goes, the force may merely be to divert Ukrainian troops from the deteriorating Donbass line in order to create much bigger breakthroughs. The Ukrainian officer in the article admitted they don’t have enough troops to effectively resist in both areas.

This would once again be part and parcel to the Russian piecemeal strategy of ‘nibbling’ Ukraine away little by little in the grand attritional war—death by a thousand cuts from every side.

Bild reports on Ukraine’s fortifications in anticipation:

Here’s a thread on the fortifications which includes videos showing that Russia is actively bombing the Kharkov fortifications right on the Russian border:

And Zelensky likewise echoed that Russia is ‘preparing for an offensive’:

But many are not confident for Ukraine’s prospects. Swiss paper Blick:

“The Russians will take over Donbass by October, then the conflict will freeze and we will have to negotiate with Putin,” the publication quotes the words of an officer of the 5th assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which holds the defense in Chasovy Yar.

Let’s look at some last few sundry items.

Russian Iskanders reportedly destroyed a huge Novaya Pochta mail warehouse in Odessa that, according to some sources, was housing one of the large new weapons shipments—particularly 155mm ammo—from NATO:

An hour and a half ago, a warehouse with shells from the United States, which had just been brought, was destroyed in Odessa.

Perhaps even within the framework of the newly accepted assistance package. 155 mm shells arrived in the morning from Romania by sea. At the moment, detonation is going on and a fire is raging. The SBU has cordoned off the area where two missiles from Comrade Iskander K. arrived, and catches everyone who is trying to film the place on video.

Detonations are still ongoing. $61 billion well-spent.

The fires and explosions were massive and are still raging for an entire day:

Geolocation: 46.39076154894405, 30.709783815056294

The U.S. ambassador cried about it:

In the strikes, it’s said that an important Major of the Ukrainian Southern Command was eliminated:

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Mobilization commissars complain that no one at all wants to join the army:

A fact now growing louder and louder amid Ukrainian society:

Over and over again on every program and interview, it’s the only thing mentioned anymore: “We’re running out of men.”

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Moscow’s Victory Day NATO armor assemblage is finally complete with the arrival of the Abrams and others. Here’s a humorous video from BBC’s perennial pest Steve Rosenberg bitterly devouring his sour grapes on the occasion:

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Russian engineers continue being the world’s fastest at updating equipment on the fly as per requirements fed directly from soldiers on the ground. The new T-90M iterations being sent to the troops now come factory-stock with a completely redesigned anti-drone grill that even has its own entry ports on top:

After finicking with it over the course of the SMO, it can be said Russia now has by far the most sophisticated and battle-proven anti-drone defensive attachments and alterations for armor of any country in the world. All it takes is one look at other country’s sophomore efforts to note how far behind in the adaptive chain they are.

For instance, South Korea recently began equipping its armor with ‘cope cages’ that are quite primitive by comparison, but at least prove that once again Russia innovates and leads while the world’s most advanced militaries follow in its footsteps:

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Russia continues hunting the elusive HIMARS, reportedly getting another successful strike on one they tracked with a Tornado-S guided missile:

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Lastly, to bring some clarity and closure to the Russell Bentley situation.

Many have asked me to comment on it but I have refrained for now in order to wait for actual confirmed details to gather. For the first time, we now have some actual details from a trustworthy source, in this case the German-Russian journalist Alina Lipp. You can listen to her account below and decide for yourself what to believe as far as the details:

Many have likely seen this previous video, but for those that haven’t, here’s Bentley’s Buryat friend addressing members of the above-mentioned 5th Brigade, which is reportedly from Buryatia:

Though nothing is truly ‘confirmed’ insofar as official sources, one other detail I’ve read which I’ll add is that allegedly Bentley’s burned remains were found in a burned and abandoned car. So we can assume that if the story above is true, the perpetrators panicked after ‘accidentally’ killing him and tried to dispose of the evidence.

The only question that would remain is: was it a targeted ‘abduction’, or a crime of opportunity? We know Donetsk was struck with missiles and Bentley went near a local gas station near the Petrovsky district to investigate with his camera-phone and record some videos. He was then seen being taken by men into a car. Some theories even stated that the strike had hit the 5th brigade’s HQ and the men saw an “American” snooping around and assumed him to be a NATO spy who was responsible for calling the strike down on them.

It’s impossible to know for sure, but the circumstances don’t quite make sense. It makes more sense to me from the standpoint of a crime of opportunity by people who did not even know who he was and only that he was some kind of American wandering around, but it’s impossible to know.

I respected Bentley but was not a huge “fan” of him “personally” per se, only because I’ve had interactions with him that were unsavory and have known people he was extremely rude and insulting to. Away from his tailored image, he was not the ‘nicest’ guy in real life, even to people who were helping or working with him. And I’m being diplomatic here for the sake of having some respect in light of his passing, if you get my drift.

However, being crotchety or even an outright asshole:

1. Does not make you deserving of death nor cause for me to celebrate your death

2. Does not take away your achievements or tarnish the positive things you’ve done

Therefore, I say RIP to “Texas”, who had a lot bigger balls than most of us, lived life to the fullest, and who can at least have said that he fought—and died—for something meaningful:

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