SITREP 4/6/25: Hint of Spring as Russian Pressure Rises on Every Front
Geopolitical news has been relatively slow the past few days so it seemed a good occasion to catch up on frontline advancements, which have been picking up this week.
Russian forces have continued advancing on virtually every front, with new rumors cropping up amongst Ukrainians about various potential offensive directions. One of them is the Kupyansk direction, where Russian forces have reportedly been amassing troops.
The advances there are accelerating. Russian forces entered Kamyanka, capturing a large portion of the town:
A wider view below for perspective, with Kamyanka circled in red, and Kupyansk in yellow:
A bit south of there, Russian control increased toward the direction of Kupyansk itself, seen just at the very bottom of the following map:
One can see that new ‘bridgehead’ over the Oskil river is growing and growing.
South of there, on what I’ll call the Kreminna-Izyum axis, Russian forces are likewise expanding every day:
A wider view for perspective:
In fact, it is on this front that a prominent Ukrainian officer has sounded alarms about the worsening situation:
Platoon Commander of 24th Battalion "Aidar" Stanislav Bunyatov reports worsening situation on Lyman axis: Yampolivka is under Russian control, enemy uses infiltration in 1-2 man groups through forest, making movement hard to track
The specific area of Yampolovka he’s referencing in relation to the above maps is here:
In Toretsk, Russia recaptured many positions that Ukraine had recently seized in their short-lived counter-offensive meant to bolster Zelensky during the ceasefire talks.
Just south of there on the Konstantinovka front, Russian forces have bisected a key supply route; from Suriyak:
Situation on Grodovskaya front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army advances west of Oleksandropil taking control over the trench system at the H-20 highway.
And the Zaporozhye front has seen some of the largest advances over the past week, with expansions of territory in multiple directions:
On the Velyka Novosilka front, Russia has expanded as well, capturing the village of Vesele, and expanding westward as well:
Suriyak:
With the latest advance Russian Army reached the Lithium deposit at the eastern outskirts of Shevchenko.
For comparison purposes is a screenshot from my last Sitrep mentioning the area, where you can see Vesele had not been captured:
On Ukrainian TV, an Azov commander warned of a coming Russian offensive in April:
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia Preparing Offensive in April — Azov Nazi
▪️Two or three Russian divisions have been training at training grounds for over a month. They are well-equipped and have reserves, complains the commander of the 1st assault battalion of the 3rd assault corps "Azov", a terrorist unit of Ukrainian Nazis.
▪️Earlier, the head of the Center for Combating Disinformation Kovalenko said that Russia is preparing for an offensive not in April, but in May.
RVvoenkor
He claims Russia has 2-3 divisions for this task, and the offensive will be in the direction of his 3rd Separate Assault Brigade’s area of responsibility, which is on the Lyman-Izyum axis.
Below is the position of this Azov brigade circled in red, with Izyum circled in yellow on the left, and Lyman on the bottom, for geospatial reference (click on images to enlarge):
As confirmation of the above, one Ukrainian analysis channel presented the below video with claims that “huge Russian force” of 30,000 troops are preparing for an offensive to capture Lyman and reach the Oskil river:
Ukrainian post: The Russian so-called willingness for peace is accumulating about 30,000 terrorists In the north of Ukraine for an attack in the Lyman area to reach the Oskil river - according to Reporting From Ukraine.
The latest data on the pace of Russian advances:
05,04,25 SVO Zone - Progress Rate
The average daily rate of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the SVO zone in March 2025 was 8.3 km².
Let’s do an instructive autopsy on one of the recent advances, to understand how current frontline assault tactics are evolving.
From the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, formerly of the 2nd Army Corps of the LPR forces. This brigade operates in the south Chasov Yar region, west of Bakhmut. Several days ago they captured Ukrainian positions with a classic armored train of heavily-modified combat vehicles:
Images of the 4th Motorised Rifle Brigade.
A group of tanks approaching Ukrainian positions, the tanks carry anti-mine rollers, extensive additional protection including many electronic warfare systems.
The tanks themselves were used as transports, from which the troops were lowered.
It can be seen the front of the group uses tanks with heavy rollers to neutralize mines and form a safe passage to the target area. Note that the tank is sporting anti-drone EW modules on the roof—different modules to cover as many frequencies as possible:
At the 0:40 second mark of the video you’ll note infantry dismounts from beneath the tank shed itself. Which means the main battle tanks are being used to carry assault infantry directly on top of them, in conjunction to other armored personnel carriers.
One of the reasons is due to the ongoing drone threat, it’s now often considered ironically safer to ride on top rather than inside of a ‘deathbox’, because it allows troops to quickly dismount and disperse if drone detectors are warning of a threat, or hits are already incoming.
For these purposes often T-62s are used, since they effectively become transports:
In the context of being mounted on the roof, I think it is preferable to ride on the roof of a modified T-62 rather than a BMP-2 of any modification.
- Better mine protection
- More firepower
- The structure and power of the tank allows for the mounting of thicker handmade armour.
The next most important part is 2:12 of the video.
You’ll note the tank is providing heavy smoke cover as troops dismount. The troops then blow Ukrainian trenches and capture dugouts.
The drone threat has increased so much on both sides that any assaulting armored vehicle can be expected to be hit upwards of 10 times by enemy drones. But contrary to propaganda which shows rapidly spliced hits of explosions, most tanks survive a multitude of drone hits before they are disabled.
A Russian ‘shed’ tank from a recent assault was likely hit several times:
A Ukrainian recording shows a Russian BMP-2 being hit literally ~10 times in a span of seconds, such is the drone proliferation along many fronts:
This is what an assault on armored vehicle looks like in conditions where drones completely control the airspace. Video of the attack attempt by Russian BMP-2, filmed by the 38th Brigade of Ukraine
A Russian unit again shows off the vast amount of drones their electronic warfare has downed near the Kursk border:
Over 1,000 Ukrainian FPV drones were grounded by Russian electronic warfare units near the Kursk border.
They stripped them for parts that’ll come in handy for Russian drones, and piled up the empty frames into a sort of improvised installation—kind of a visual on the new realities of modern warfare. The Khokhol keeps trying to hold even one foot in our border area, constantly sending in new drone crews.
Here Russian center group is seen recently training some of these assault tactics:
Russian ground drones are seen with increasing regularity on the front as well:
An update from the American side, showing what new drone units the US Army is forming with the knowledge being gained from the Ukraine war:
At the same time, some reports claim the US Army may slash a massive 90,000 active duty troops due to budget cuts:
The Army is quietly considering a sweeping reduction of up to 90,000 active-duty troops, a move that underscores mounting fiscal pressures at the Pentagon and a broader shift in military strategy away from Europe and counterterrorism, according to three defense officials familiar with the deliberations.
As a last topic, a new Telegraph article making the rounds has proffered the suggestion that Trump will soon get fed up and hit Zelensky with an ultimatum:
The Telegraph, citing its sources, reports that Zelensky will soon face a new ultimatum from Trump.
The ultimatum is: either sign a peace agreement on Russia's terms, or lose US support.
The publication notes that Trump views Ukraine as a “wholly owned US subsidiary.”
What’s interesting about the above piece, besides the ultimatum claim, is that for the first time we’re beginning to see major Western publications begin realistically acknowledging the possibility of Ukraine losing all five of the regions demanded by Putin, including Kherson and Zaporozhye in whole. Until now these long-standing Russian demands were virtually ignored or dismissed out of hand by MSM, which only spoke condescendingly enough about the prospects of Russia keeping Crimea, Lugansk, and Donetsk, let alone the others.
But now, reality is beginning to dawn on them. The Telegraph piece breaks the omerta and broaches the delicate eventuality:
How would the map of Ukraine change after such a one-sided ceasefire? Putin claims five provinces: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The last three are still only partially occupied by the Russians.
Agreeing to withdraw Ukrainian forces from these regions would increase the Russian-occupied area from about 20pc to roughly 25pc of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. That might sound like a sacrifice worth making to stop the slaughter, though it would inevitably deprive Kyiv of yet more economic resources and its fortified front lines.
But such a deal would also mean evacuating millions of civilians. After the well-documented murder, torture and abduction of tens of thousands in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere, it is unthinkable that Zelensky would abandon his people to Putin’s paramilitaries and secret police. So a war-torn, impoverished country would have to absorb a huge influx of refugees.
Confirmation they understand this would include losing the capital cities of these regions themselves:
Worse, a ceasefire on Putin’s terms would crush Ukrainian morale. Some of the cities that would be lost, including Kherson itself, have already been liberated from the Russians, often at great cost.
It’s clear that little by little the inevitable acceptance of Russia’s full demands is being digested.
But what’s particularly fascinating—and egregious—to observe about the above, is the suggestion that “evacuating millions of civilians”, particularly after many of them were allegedly ‘tortured and murdered’, is something so unthinkable, that it beggars the contemporary imagination, and should definitely be resisted by the moral forces of the world. After all, there is simply no place on earth we could even conceive of where millions of people are currently under similar threat of both mass genocide and forced displacement. The highly principled Western press would certainly apprise us of such an obvious parallel, bringing to light the stupendous hypocrisy thereof, were it to exist somewhere on this small rock, no?
And this highly righteous press would unquestionably condemn the mirroring tragedy—if such a hypothetical one existed—with the same pharisaical outrage as exhibited here, right?
….Right?
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Good rundown, but the Middle East is where the action is. Another THAAD and 2 more Patriot batteries to Israel, another couple of MQ-9s down in Yemen. Expanding destruction in Syria and the gas chambers and ovens in Gaza have been belching the ashes of ever more women, children and rescue workers. Tons(literally) of transport and recon activity and a second carrier just passed through the Strait of Malacca. It's hard to doubt that the big one is coming with Iran. No predictions since my thoughts regarding the efficacy of Hezbollah were wildly off (they lost). I would yawn and think it couldn't possibly happen if it were not for the wall-to-wall Zionist lunatics in the Trump administration. Apparently his military advisors are every bit as astute as his economic ones. But we did manage to wipe out a couple of hundred sinister participants in a Yemeni village council meeting and thereby save the USS Harry Truman. Nice work guys! (add American flag and arm muscle emoji here) I honestly thought it was impossible to be worse than Biden/Harris. Oh well, live and learn.
It's a laugh that the Ukies refer to the Russian forces as faggots, considering the testimonies and videos documenting Ukie filth engaging in homosexual acts.
NAZIs love projection.