SITREP 4/28/25: Russian Vise Tightens as West Dawdles and Dallies with "Ceasefire" Sham

Trump and Rubio continue to claim that a ceasefire deal is “very close” to happening, with Reuters having published the full Trump “plan”, after a week or two of teasing ‘leaked’ versions of it:

⚡️Reuters has published the final terms of the US peace proposal.

The plan was presented to European officials by Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff at talks in Paris on April 17. It is the final US offer to both sides:

▪️ Both sides shall immediately enter into negotiations on the technical implementation of a permanent ceasefire.

▪️ Ukraine refuses to join NATO, but may become a member of the EU.

▪️ Security guarantees for Ukraine are provided by a military contingent of European states, which non-European countries can voluntarily join.

▪️ The United States de jure recognizes Crimea as Russian, and de facto recognizes Russia’s control over Luhansk region and the “occupied” parts of Donbass, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions.

▪️ Ukraine regains control over the "occupied" areas of the Kharkiv region.

▪️ Ukraine regains control over Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhya NPP. The station will be managed by Americans, electricity will be distributed to "both sides".

▪️ Ukraine will gain unimpeded passage along the Dnieper and control over the Kinburn Spit

▪️ The United States and Ukraine are implementing an agreement on economic cooperation and development of mineral resources.

▪️ Ukraine will receive full restoration and financial compensation.

▪️ Sanctions against Russia, imposed since 2014, will be lifted.

▪️ The United States will cooperate with Russia in energy and other industrial sectors.

In the meantime, the message being sent by Russian officials is the opposite.

In an interview with Face the Nation, Lavrov categorically rejected the ZNPP plant being transferred over to the US, while again reiterating Russia’s main demands:

Sergey Lavrov once again approved Russia's demands for ending military operations in Ukraine:

▪️Ukraine must refuse to join NATO and remain neutral.

▪️Kiev is obliged to stop legislatively and physically destroying everything Russian in Ukraine - language, media, culture, traditions and Orthodoxy.

▪️Crimea, Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions must be internationally recognized as Russian territory .

▪️All sanctions against Russia must be lifted , lawsuits and arrest warrants cancelled and frozen assets returned.

▪️Moscow must receive reliable security guarantees against the threats created by the hostile activities of NATO, the European Union and their individual member states on our western borders.

▪️The task of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine is not removed from the agenda .

▪️All of Kyiv’s obligations under the peace agreement must be legally enshrined, have enforcement mechanisms, and be permanent.

In fact, this even sounds like a toughening of the negotiating position, since previously a ceasefire required only the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from new regions of Russia. Now, Kyiv is required to internationally recognize their Russian affiliation.

Military Informant

Unfortunately, Ukraine and US both continue to hold that Ukraine should be able to maintain a military force, which is a non-starter for Russia:

Peskov likewise interestingly noted that “if Ukraine were to withdraw from the four regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson” then Russia would stop the war immediately. As always, consider that the chances of Ukraine withdrawing from Kherson and Zaporozhye cities, the latter being nearly one million in population, are slim to none.

Ex-foreign minister Kuleba, having floated down in his ‘golden parachute’ somewhere in the West, insists “we are not even close to real negotiations”:

And what kind of ceasefire could Russia have with people like this? Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security Roman Kostenko stated in a new interview that: “In the event of a freeze in hostilities, Ukraine must intensify the activities in Russia and carry out a whole series of political assassinations.”

So, one of the highest ranking Ukrainian officials openly admits that were the war to come to an end, Ukraine has as its duty the right to continue assassinating everyone in Russia who was even remotely connected to the hostilities. Knowing this, why would Russia ever sign a ceasefire without first fulfilling the mandate of “demilitarization” and “deNazification” of Ukraine? The latter I view more as a de-radicalization: removing the ‘extremist’ segment from the Ukrainian ranks.

But even so, Putin has now offered a new three-day ceasefire for Victory Day, from May 8th to May 11th. It’s difficult to say if it’s another deliberate ploy meant to ‘trap’ Zelensky in a kind of zugzwang—but if that’s the case, Zelensky immediately took the bait as he publicly rejected the ceasefire, to the detriment of his image:

Zelensky effectively rejected Putin's proposal for a three-day truce in May, writes the publication "Strana".

He called the proposal manipulation and called for a 30-day truce, not a three-day one.

"Now here is another attempt at manipulation: for some reason everyone should wait until May 8 and only then cease fire to ensure Putin's silence during the parade. There is no reason to wait until May 8. The fire should be stopped not for a few days. An immediate, complete and unconditional ceasefire - and for at least 30 days," he said.

Of course, he counter-offered for an immediate permanent ceasefire in order to inject European troops and freeze the conflict long-term against Russia’s will.

On this account, a Russian commentator had the following stirring take:

"Opinion of the subscriber, Russian officer O:

"Negotiations, negotiations, negotiations.

Trump this, Zeleboba that.

This whole circus is about nothing. We have not achieved our goals. The Ukrops do not consider themselves defeated yet. Neither they nor we are ready to "trade" their territories.

Besides, if we don't bring the matter to its logical conclusion, the Ukrps will modernise, staff up (including the youth. Or rather, first of all) and continue the war. Except that our losses at this stage will be much higher among both military personnel and civilians, and there will be orders of magnitude more destruction of populated areas and industrial/infrastructure facilities. Don't be under any illusions.

Apart from everything else, Geo-Europeans, most likely, who will also have rebuilt their economies on "military rails" by that time, will come to attack us. And I doubt the Pindos will be on the sidelines.

So we have no choice but, now and to the end.

Now we are at war directly with the Ukrops. The others, although they have put their stinking paws, mostly indirectly. Under the new arrangement it will be different.

Ready or not ready... We're already at war. And the initiative is on our side. Mobilisation, too. Mobilisation, at worst. They are also not ready as they will be in a couple of years when they are prepared and stockpile, introduce conscription, etc.

The Ukes have a shortage of personnel right now, b/c of that. Gotta get to the bottom of it. Take off the rose coloured glasses! We are tired too, but they are more tired. All the more reason for us to squeeze.

Otherwise, the guys who are dead won't forgive us. Neither will those who stood up for the country in 1941-1945. We weren't ready then either, and we were also dead tired, but we stood to the end. And walked to the end. Had we not made it then, what next? Something like "The Unthinkable", including the Wehrmacht, which had regained its fighting capacity? And what would have been our losses then? Especially if the British and Germans, etc. from Europe, and the Pindos from the Far East....

...Let the Koreans get involved. And not only. We must finish this hydra. Otherwise, instead of one head, several new ones will grow.

Russia and anti-Russia will not exist in parallel. This stage has already passed. It's either them or us. There is no place for us in this world at the same time. The youth of b/Ukraine are being prepared for war from childhood. Our destruction is on the Ukrops' banners now. They will use everything in case of a truce. Including the fifth column, and the sixth (migrants), and, as in the Soviet Union, they will divide the peoples and nationalities of our country by provocations, etc. There can be no way back and 'jumping in place'."

Well said. Unfortunately, as is almost always the case in history, ‘clean victories’ rarely come. The forces pushing against Russia to capitulate to some kind of early ‘compromise’ are growing each day. In his latest presser, Trump again tabled hard sanctions against Russia, venting his frustrations at Putin’s refusal to make an easy peace.

Meanwhile, NATO continues to build up and prepare provocations, as Patrushev reports:

A new Polish report also claims Poland is proposing to close the Baltic Sea to Russian traffic:

🇷🇺🇵🇱 Poland has proposed closing the Baltic Sea to Russia under the pretext of protecting offshore wind turbines , reports the Polish Defense 24.

Among the options are:

- installation of special equipment on wind turbines for "security control", but in fact for guiding NSM anti-ship missiles;

- the use of well-armed "private security organizations" with the support of the Polish Navy.

This will require the creation of more than a dozen special monitoring centers, which, according to the authors, should operate day and night all year round.

Even the authors of the plan do not understand how to distinguish tourists, yachtsmen and fishermen who may end up near wind farms from “possible Russian saboteurs.”

They are offering to pay for this... to wind turbine operators, who can transfer their costs to... electricity consumers.

https://inosmi.ru/20250423/baltika_polsha-272726235.html

In light of these latest provocation tips, Russia’s Naryshkin said that Russian special services should begin acting proactively against these measures:

The special services of Russia and Belarus are ready to act preemptively in the face of NATO activity and increasing escalation from Europe around Ukraine, said Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. We see an increase in military activity by NATO countries near our borders, we feel and see that European countries, especially France, Great Britain and Germany, are increasing the level of escalation around the Ukrainian conflict, so we need to act preemptively. We are ready for this.

We can guess what that alludes to.

When just days ago Estonia suggested to start sinking Russian ships accused of ‘violating’ their arbitrary rules, Patrushev likewise remarked that Russia needs to start thinking of ways to respond:

Hopefully Russia has already long begun contemplating this, contrary to Patrushev’s suggestion.

One last important thing to mention, is that Trump continues to admit that Russia’s biggest concession to Ukraine is not taking the whole country:

This means the US administration clearly understands that a “ceasefire” would be an arbitrary decision for Russia, not an exigent one based on urgent need. In fact, Trump continued to remark that if the peace deal falls through, Russia will capture the entire country “in a matter of years”:

So then, what is Russia’s real incentive to stop? Trump is in effect asking for a ‘favor’, and Russia will need much more than what is being offered to consider making such an unfavorable ‘concession’.

A quick update on the frontline situation. The past day has again seen a surge of Russian advances in key areas.

On the cross-Oskil river ‘beachhead’ Russian troops were geo-confirmed as having planted their flag in Kamyanka:

Geoloc of the flag. Ru mappers show the rest of the town in the grey zone but Ru MoD announced full control over Kamenka.

Maps

Coordinates 49.98043, 37.83959

It sits on the other side of the Oskol/Oskil river.

For reference, this is here, with Kupyansk at the very south of the map:

Circled in yellow is an area where Russian troops also slightly expanded their territorial control.

The largest gains happened just south of there on the Kreminna-Lyman line:

Situation north of Donetsk: During this week Russian Army made new advances along the border with Donetsk & Luhansk in the direction of Hrekivka.

Russian troops expanded control in several directions at once in the direction of Izyum, still far away for now.

There were many other small advances, such as from Belgorovka toward the Seversk direction, with Russian troops entering the outskirts of Gregorovka.

In the front between Toretsk and Pokrovsk, Russian troops continue making advances toward Konstantinovka in the north. The 150th Division for instance broke through past northwestern Toretsk to cut and capture a railway line circled in yellow below:

In fact, Ukraine’s top TG analyst Myroshnykov notes that the above section is now by far the most difficult of the front for the AFU, claiming that Russia has recently been bringing up new reserves here:

The most difficult section of the front now is, without a doubt, the junction of the Pokrov and Torets directions.

The enemy prepared a lot of forces and resources before the start of the operation.

When it seemed that we managed to extinguish the fire in our defense, an "armistice" came for Easter, and the enemy took advantage of this 1000%.

Having regrouped and replenished their losses over those 30 hours, they rushed with renewed vigor to the Rusyn Yar - Oleksandro-Kalinove line.

Currently, the situation is not stabilized, the enemy is pressing on Tarasivka, pressing on Sukhaya Balka, and is rushing towards Romanivka and Nova Poltavka with Novoolenivka.

It is about 7 km to Oleksandro-Kalynovoy. And from Toretsk to Ivano-Pol - 8 km. Both villages are the closest approaches to Kostyantynivka.

And the enemy's task by May 8-9 is to occupy these lines so that after the hypothetical "truce" (after May 10) they can begin their operational-tactical offensive on Kostyantynivka itself.

But I feel that they will be able to reach comfortable positions near Konstaha from the south and west throughout May, if not longer.

Here are the directions he’s referring to:

Many of the areas above at the tip of the spear were just captured recently, from Sukha Balka just south of Romanovka, to the areas east of Vodyane at the western part of the map. For instance, here’s the small advance toward Berezovka from today, courtesy of Suriyak maps:

On this front Russian forces have been accelerating inexorably toward Konstantinovka, which itself is the final major barbican protecting the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomerate.

The only other thing of intrigue was a claimed report that Russian forces had landed across the Dnieper and captured territory on the opposite side in the Kherson region:

In ukrokanaly they write that the Russian army attempted to force the Dnieper in one of the sections of the Kherson direction. It is likely that this is one of the intelligence or special forces raids. There have been such cases more than once, but they were not attempts to create a foothold. The enemy command is trying to keep the group on the outskirts of Kherson, but every month it becomes more difficult.

It was claimed to have been here opposite Khrynky.

Other reports described it as the capture of the island group between the shores, which is much more realistic:

We’ll have to wait for confirmation and see.

Some last disparate items:

The results of a Russian missile strike on a scientific complex in Kiev on April 23rd have been revealed.

Before and after:

Result of a missile strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Workshop No. 10 of the O.K. Antonov Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex in Kyiv.

The workshop suffered significant damage - the roof collapsed in several places. The plant became the target of a massive missile strike at night on April 23.

Let's recall that it was at the Antonov production facilities that the enemy organized the production of long-range kamikaze drones AN-196 "Liutyi". However, since the Soviets built for the ages, it is impossible to destroy the entire complex with several ballistic missiles, a systematic approach is needed here.

—

A Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down today, confirmed by their own general staff.

Footage from Cherkassy, near the Sumy border, showed huge fires near the airport, where Russian Geran drones continued to pummel various facilities. The Su-27 was sent up to respond to the drones but was somehow destroyed in the process. One theory stated it was the typical ‘Geran debris’ from shooting the drone down too closely, another that a Russian S-400 was responsible, while a third rumor claimed a Ukrainian F-16 shot down its own friendly.

—

Speaking of ‘mishaps’, in a humiliating incident today the US Navy lost a $60+ million F/A-18E Super Hornet when the USS Truman aircraft carrier was forced to veer hard right to avoid a Houthi attack:

Official US Navy press release: https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/4167948/harry-s-truman-carrier-strike-group-fa-18-super-hornet-lost-at-sea/

For those who didn’t know aircraft carriers can essentially ‘drift’ on the seas, here’s an example:

Did someone forget to put the parking brake on the Hornet?

Recall that only a few months ago, the Navy had shot down another Hornet while combating the Houthis:

The above post makes a good point. A CNN article from last year had detailed that a Houthi missile had come so close to a US carrier battle group that the USS Gravely had to switch to its last line of defense, the CIWS.

"The USS Gravely had to use its last defence layer, Phalanx CIWS against a Houthi cruise missile per a U.S. official to CNN. "

Meanwhile, even a West Point report added that a Houthi missile allegedly splashed down a mere 200 meters from the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier, after having bypassed the entire battle group defense shield:

Now, today, we get word that a US carrier had to make emergency defensive maneuvers so violent that it tossed a Super Hornet overboard—along with its “towing tractor” and personnel.

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An interesting but speculative report from Russian Politnavigator agency claiming that previous Ukrainian finance minister Mykola Azarov is being ‘prepared’ by both US and Russia as a kind of compromise figure to head the new Ukrainian rump state at the end of the SMO. This was revealed by Alexander Kazakov—ex-advisor to the head of the DPR—on a Krym 24 TV channel interview:

❗️Azarov is being offered the role of “iron hand” for the denazification of Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister in 2010-14 Mykola Azarov, now co-chairman of the People's Unity Club, is a compromise figure for the United States and Russia to head the Ukrainian state at the end of the SMO. This information, citing sources close to the negotiation process, appeared in a number of European media, reports a correspondent of PolitNavigator.

🔴On the air of the Krym 24 TV channel, Alexander Kazakov, ex-advisor to the head of the DNR and co-chairman of the CNE, noted that the format of external management of the part of Ukraine that will remain administratively an independent state is indeed being discussed at the level of the newly created platform.

🗣"The European sources who threw in this information were at least eavesdropping on us. Since with regard to the part of the former Ukrainian SSR that will not become part of Russia - Azarov, Glazyev, I and our other colleagues understand - what will happen there: the coming years will be terrible. To prevent them from turning into a pan-European catastrophe, a territory of armed chaos, a war of “all against all,” a strict order, literally dictatorial, must be imposed there. It is possible to do this only outside the constitutional framework - this is external governance," he said.

🔴External governance is imposed on behalf of the curators and sponsors - Russia and the USA. The “Club of People's Unity” has a task: to gather intellectual color to jointly find a solution to seemingly intractable issues and problems related to the former Ukrainian SSR.

🗣"We proceed from what our president proceeds from - a fraternal people. The presence of Sergei Glazyev among the chairmen indicates one of the possible ways - a Union State can eventually become bigger. The tasks are clear to us, but it is very difficult to carry out the ideas even in Russia - the society is red-hot with anger over the years, and no one makes efforts to lower the boiling level. We won't be able to do it either - it will happen, by itself. But we don't want to solve such historical challenges when they have already come - we want to prepare for them in advance," Kazakov concluded.

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Lastly, after yesterday’s official declaration of North Korea’s involvement in the Kursk operation, new ‘official’ footage is now slowly trickling out showing the North Koreans in action. In this case, it is reportedly training in the Kursk region, with some combat footage at the end showing a capture of a control point likely near the Ukrainian border:

You can clearly see that all the descriptions found in my previous article of the North Korean troops’ combat prowess were accurate. The troops are all young, spritely, highly motivated, with snappy fast-twitch reflexes. In short, they look better than the average garden variety Russian grunt, most of whom at this point are older and less refined volunteer types, having passed through only the most cursory re-training programs.

From famed frontline correspondent Alexander Kharchenko:

About Korean training

I saw these guys several times in business. And every time I caught myself thinking that they were preparing for another (ed: unrealistic) war. Which looked a little strange. Still, North Korea is a military state. For 70 years they have been de facto at war. Huge budget funds go on national defense, and a meeting with the Ukrainian army made Koreans think and reconsider their views on the war.

Very soon, they realized that you can’t stumble, and attacking with a line is not a good idea. And they heard the REB and the UAV, but they did not understand the true meaning.

Once again, I note that in order to learn from the war, you need to lose your soldiers on the battlefield. Koreans have paid their price and will now process this valuable experience. Commanders mouths grow to the generals. And all their careers they will remember the nasty buzzing of the FPV drones, and will do everything to minimize their threat.

All military personnel of this world are watching the SVO. But true conclusions will be available to only a few. Most will make decisions based on objective control materials and dry intelligence reports. And I am sure that most generals will not be able to draw the right conclusions from the experience of the SVO. Which, however, is in our hands. The time is now dashing, and only a few armies can boast of combat experience.

Alexander Kharchenko

Another popular Russian military blogger named Starshe Edda delivered a fitting capstone with the following gut-tickling variation on Tsar Alexander III’s famous exclamation:

“Russia has only three allies: the Army, the Navy, and North Korea.”

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