SITREP 4/22/25: Ukraine Begs 30% of Bundeswehr Stock to Survive
The peace push charade continues on like a kind of low-rent traveling circus, setting down its ramshackle tents in some new backwater hole each night. This week it’s word that Trump is pushing Ukraine to acknowledge—at minimum—Crimea as Russian, with Ukraine reportedly ready to “de facto” give up all current Russian-controlled territories:
As part of the conflict settlement, Kiev is apparently ready to give up 20% of the territories, as long as this is considered recognition "de facto" and not "de jure," the New York Post writes, citing an unnamed senior official of the American administration.
But the biggest reach came from reports that Trump intends to placate Kiev by proposing that US “takes control” of the Russian Zaporozhye nuclear reactor, turning it into a kind of neutral international zone. What do you say—does that move us closer or farther from a realistic settlement of the conflict?
In short, it’s about as absurd as Russian troops being allowed to take management of the Three Mile Island reactor in exchange. One wonders from where Kellogg and friends keep fishing out such cocked-up cockamamie claptrap. Of course, Zelensky reportedly won’t even go as far as that, which means the latest attempts are again another bust, as expected:
Some might muse whether it’s all still part of a choreographed act between the Russian and US sides, in slowly exposing Zelensky as the problem and chief obstacle to peace, as was hypothesized about Putin’s surprise Easter ceasefire offer. In that framework, Zelensky would have fallen into the trap with his new statements reported today that not only will Ukraine not recognize Crimea, but that Ukraine is “open to negotiations with Russia” only after a ceasefire is reached.
“[Crimea] is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine. We have nothing to talk about on this topic – it is outside our Constitution,” Zelensky said.
Unelected mandarin Kallas echoed the sentiment:
'The European Union will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia' — EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas
The ploy to push Russia into an unconditional ceasefire in order to quickly bring in UK and French troops remains obvious to see: it’s the only way to introduce troops without them being deemed “party to the conflict” by the international community.
Senior administration officials alluded to this with ‘new details’ about European peacekeepers that will not be called a ‘peacekeeping’ force, but rather a “resiliency force”:
While the terms are not yet set in stone as Kyiv and Moscow internally discuss the plan, one senior administration official told The Post they may include deploying European forces to Ukraine should an end to the war and cease-fire be reached.
How such a thing is even being floated is difficult to fathom, given that Russian officials have several times intimated that foreign troops in Ukraine without Russian approval would be a red line. There is a nuance here: Putin himself proposed a kind of UN-led transitional government for Ukraine to facilitate new presidential elections, that would presumably include a coalition of troops to keep the peace. Putin used Yugoslavia, East Timor, and New Guinea as his examples—but the implication is clearly that this would only work under Russia’s direct approval. Britain and the UK famously elocuted that “Russia has no right to dictate” who can put troops in “sovereign Ukraine”, so long as Ukraine allows it; thus the impasse.
Trump puffed out a hastily-scratched-together missive that appears to capture his real intent on ending the war—a feast of corporate profiteering for everyone!
Apparently, just like in Gaza, it’s not the killing that ever concerned Trump, it’s the ‘tragic’ lack of exploitation of raw fungible mammon!
Now the Financial Times claims that Putin told Witkoff he’s ready to freeze the conflict on current lines, and even relinquish claims to the remainder of uncaptured territories—according to ‘insider sources’, as per usual.
The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control, three of the people said.
This reeks of extremely desperate late-stage face-saving by the blob given that these regions are now enshrined in the Russian constitution and can no longer be parceled off in such a frivolous manner. Peskov, for what it’s worth, immediately shot the article down in a statement, implying it’s a “fake” and should not be trusted.
The fact is, the US continues to pump up the narco-regime all the while wheeling and dealing for Trump’s “fortune”-granting ceasefire bonanza. A new report sheds light on how US arms deliveries to Ukraine—when averaged out—appear to be going nearly as strong as ever:
Despite public rhetoric and media speculation, the change in the American administration has not yet had a significant impact on the volume of military supplies to Ukraine.
These volumes can be roughly estimated and compared by the number of heavy transport aircraft flights in the interests of the Pentagon to Rzeszow, Poland. If we take into account military transport C-17 and C-5, as well as chartered civilian cargo Boeing 747 and Douglas MD-11F, we get the picture shown in the graph above.
Abnormal surges in deliveries are clearly visible in preparation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in 2023 and late 2024 due to the Biden administration's concerns about the cessation of deliveries after Trump takes office.
If we exclude these anomalies, then on average 35 such flights arrived in Rzeszow per month in 2023-2024. And in February-April 2025, despite a week-long pause in March, there will be an average of 25 flights per month. Over the 19 days of April, 20 flights have already arrived.
©kargin_version -neinsider
Zelensky has committed himself to prolonging the war as long as possible as that is the only outcome which ensures his political survival—particularly given the new extension of martial law just signed:
Now Ukraine’s permanent representative to the UN Andriy Melnyk has requested for Germany to cough up a whopping 30% of the Bundeswehr’s treasure to ensure Ukraine’s continued survival. With this amount, he says, Ukraine can continue fighting on to 2029:
In the above Welt piece written by Melnyk himself as an ‘open letter’, he addresses ‘the Chancellor-designate’ directly. It begins in dramatic fashion:
Dear Friedrich Merz, I know that it is not customary for an ambassador to address an open letter to the Chancellor-designate of Germany. However, I am not writing to you as a diplomat, but as a human being and a European, as a neighbor and a Christian. For we are living in unusual, dark times. War is raging in Europe. A barbaric war that Russia has unleashed. People are afraid. People want peace. Especially the Ukrainians, who are making enormous sacrifices every day. And the politicians are desperately looking for solutions to put an end to this madness, but are unable to find any.
He goes on to articulate that only Germany can become the ‘beacon of hope and freedom’ of the world—or some such—and outlines the steps Merz needs to take to ensure Ukraine’s survival:
Firstly, a coalition decision should be made to finance arms deliveries to Ukraine to the tune of at least 0.5 percent of GDP (21.5 billion euros per year) or 86 billion euros by 2029. To take the wind out of your critics' sails, a credit agreement could be considered. This would be a fair solution and at the same time a huge investment in Germany's own security. These funds should be invested in the production of state-of-the-art weapons in both Germany and Ukraine.
So, first is a paltry €86 billion euros for defense purposes—not a huge ask, right?
Well, that’s just the icing—he then demands another separate €372 billion, and an additional €181 billion on top of that, just in case:
Secondly, initiate and implement the same 0.5 percent scheme at EU level (372 billion euros by 2029) and within the framework of the G7 (an additional 181 billion if the USA is not - yet - included). This mega-commitment of 550 billion euros for Ukrainian defense over the next four years would be a huge warning signal to Putin that you, Mr. Merz, and our allies are serious about helping Ukraine. That will impress Putin.
The €550 billion “mega-commitment” is meant to “impress Putin”. Well, it’s certain to impress Putin, there’s no question about that. He will undoubtedly be impressed by the monumental ineptitude, fraud, and profligacy of a dying order intent on destroying the futures of its own citizens—how can anyone not be?
He goes on to demand the immediate delivery of 150 Taurus missiles, which, according to previous estimates, could be the total sum of operable stock in the entire German stockpile.
But the next demand takes the cake, and is one of the most mind-bogglingly brazen ones ever publicly made by an ambassador to another country; it simply must be read in full:
Fourthly, in order to deploy the Taurus systems efficiently, a coalition decision should be made to hand over 30 percent of the available German fighter jets and helicopters from the German Air Force to Ukraine. That would be around 45 Eurofighters and 30 Tornados, 25 NH90 TTH helicopters and 15 Eurocopter Tigers. This step could also be carried out as part of an all-encompassing loan - a loan and lease law that could be passed by the Bundestag. The main thing is that it is delivered quickly. The same 30 percent rule could also be introduced for other weapons systems from the army's inventory in order to release the following critical deliveries: 100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, 115 Puma and 130 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 130 GTK Boxers, 300 Fuchs armored transport vehicles, 20 MARS II rocket artillery systems with ammunition. At the same time, orders were to be placed for a massive modernization of the Bundeswehr in order to quickly replace the weapon systems supplied.
Seriously, read that again: the madman literally wants 30% of the entire German Armed Forces, including its air force. He might as well ask for Germany to take over the fight entirely for Ukraine, a sort of midgame substitution. If that wasn’t bad enough, his last request is for Germany to help seize the ‘frozen $200B of Russian funds’. The only realistic part of the slapstick appeal is his paralleling of Christ rising from the dead on Easter to the type of “miracle” Ukraine is in dire need of.
A quick summary put together by someone else for those who want a quick rundown:
🇺🇦 Hoping for a miracle on Easter: Kiev asked its allies for 550 billion euros to continue the war.
Kiev has big requests again. Ukraine's representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, has published a list of "wishes" for Western allies — from future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to the G7 leaders.
The demands were published in Die Welt:
1.Transfer 30% of the Bundeswehr's arsenal to the Ukrainian Armed Forces — including 45 Eurofighter fighters, 100 Leopard-2 tanks, 300 Fuchs armored personnel carriers, dozens of helicopters, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored vehicles.
2.Enshrine in law the allocation of 0.5% of Germany's GDP to aid Ukraine — 86 billion euros by 2029.
3.Convince the G7 and the European Union to allocate 0.5% of GDP — 550 billion euros in aid over 4 years.
4.Confiscate 200 billion euros of Russian assets and guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU.
5.And, of course, to transfer 150 Taurus missiles.
Melnik admitted that he "has no illusions" and that his list will cause discontent in Berlin. But, according to him, during Easter "we can hope for a miracle".
The fact is, depending how you count it, Germany has likely already provided upwards of 30% of its armaments from certain categories to Ukraine. For instance, several dozen Leopard 1s and 2s out of 200-300 total, the same goes for air defense.
Now as of this writing the Telegraph has reported another kind of ‘leaked’ Trump plan for the cessation of hostilities, which boils down to the same old frosted Kelloggs concoction:
- (Immediate) Ceasefire now
- DIRECT Ukraine-Russia talks
- Kiev DROPS NATO ambitions
- Crimea recognized as RUSSIA
- Ukraine signs mineral deal
- US lifts ALL anti-Russia SANCTIONS
- US-Russia ENERGY cooperation
Specifically, it states that all Russian sanctions would be lifted—at least by the US—and a new era of US-Russian cooperation on energy would begin; i.e. “making a FORTUNE!” as per Trump’s earlier ejaculation.
Unfortunately, that still does not address any of Russia’s core conditions.
Let’s switch to some battlefield updates.
The largest gains by far of the past week have come about in the southern Konstantinovka area. The cap came today when Russian forces captured Sukha Balka, seen in this video gelocated at 48.3220217, 37.7653219:
68th Tank Regiment together with the 20th Motorized Rifle Regiment wave the Russian flag confirming full control over Sukhaya Balka next to Valentinovka
To understand the nature of the advance, here is a timelapse from Ukraine’s DeepState maps over the course of the past week and a half or so—Sukha Balka is seen at the southern edge of the LoC:
And in fact the above doesn’t even record the full captures, as Ukrainian map-makers are infamous for updating Russian wins extremely late.
This advance is significant because it’s slowly relieving the flanks of the long-embattled Toretsk, which will eventually create a powerful unified front against the stronghold of Konstantinovka itself.
There were many other nibbling advances in Seversk direction, Orekhove in Zaporozhye, and Velyka Novosilka directions, of which even Rob Lee wrote about:
In Kupyansk Russian forces took new positions on the ‘beachhead’ across the Oskil river around here:
South of there in the Lyman direction Russian forces again advanced:
Here’s a wider view with Lyman circled for reference:
And here’s a close up of Nove (circled in red above) to show how Russian troops have entered the town:
A write up from a Russian military channel with more details as to the units operating on this front. It was written about a week or two ago before Nove was captured, so it’s slightly out of date but gives good unit descriptions for those interested in following along:
The other big capture was the Gornal monastery in the Kursk region, which is virtually the last holdout of Ukrainian forces on Kursk territory:
Note the area not shaded in red above near the white line representing the Russia-Ukraine border. This is the last remaining small tract of land Ukraine holds in Kursk. A wider view:
The red is the last remaining Ukrainian area of control, while the yellow shows the areas of Sumy region that Russian forces have captured and now hold, with the white line being the border.
This quick report gives us an insightful glimpse at the kinds of forces Ukraine is throwing at the border region—it concerns a group of half a dozen or so captured POWs on the border today:
Yesterday, 5 Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters surrendered in one of the areas, including one girl as an assault soldier. The age of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters who surrendered varies from 18 to 23 years.
The Russian Aerospace Forces is increasing strikes on concentrations of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the adjacent territory in the Sumy and Kharkov regions.
A few last items:
Arestovich explains to Zelensky precisely what will happen if he doesn’t take the current deal:
Simple enough, no?
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Russian moto-forces practice a novel way of bypassing concertina wire:
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General Wesley Clark correctly assesses the end game of the war:
Odessa is the key to Russia's victory. - Former NATO commander.
The capture of Odessa will become a symbol of the end of the war and de facto victory of Russia, said the former commander of NATO's allied forces in Europe, General Wesley Clark. According to him, the city is a strategic target of Vladimir Putin.
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The Houthis have announced the third downing of an American MQ-9 Reaper drone just this week alone. Sources claim this is the 22nd Reaper destroyed by Houthis since October 7th, which is somewhere in the vicinity of 10% of the entire Reaper inventory of the US Armed Forces.
It brings up renewed arguments of how ‘obsolete’ heavy UCAVs are in modern warfare. But interestingly, Russia’s own usage of these platforms has increased of late, as Ukraine’s air defenses have slowly depleted. Today alone we have two videos of the Forpost being used.
The first is a strike against a Ukrainian field command post in Novodymtrovka at the below coordinates:
#UkraineRussiaWar
Place: #NovodmytrivkaDate: ~22.04.2025
Coordinates: 50.757129,35.372044Description: Russian Forpost UAVs destroyed three temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novodmytrivka.
Interestingly, that is on the Sumy border, where these UCAV platforms have been operating in the largest quantity.
The second video is from Ukraine’s Magyar drone unit, which shows a Russian Forpost being attacked by an FPV, which at the least proves they are being widely used:
Ukrainian interceptor drone takes down Russian "Forpost" UAV at 4 km altitude. The Forpost is a large UAV, similar in function to a Bayraktar, capable of both reconnaissance and carrying a combat payload—typically two missiles or other munitions for striking ground targets.
By the way, I’m not at all convinced the above strike actually disabled the Forpost. When you consider the actual size of this platform you’ll note that a tiny FPV would have to get a very precise hit to actually take it down, as it doesn’t have the raw explosive power to do so and relies on the accuracy of its very narrow cumulative jet—if so equipped:
It should also be noted the Forpost in question was armed with Kab-20 laser-guided bombs and was thus not simply outfitted for reconnaissance and the like:
At the same time Russia’s Rostec has announced a ‘friend or foe’ system for Russian UAVs:
👁 Rostec has begun testing the “friend or foe” system for UAVs.
The holding company "RosEl" has started testing the drone identification system. The equipment has already passed the stage of testing for electromagnetic compatibility with the rest of the "stuffing" of the carrier drones.
How does the system work?
The key element of the new system is a radar identifier installed in the drone. At the first stage, the equipment will work with stations using the Russian state identification system. Such devices are used, for example, in aviation to distinguish friendly equipment from enemy equipment.
What is the use of this?
The equipment operates on the “friend or foe” principle and automatically marks friendly drones at an altitude of up to 5 km and a distance of up to 100 km from the radio interrogator.
"The transponder is lightweight - no more than 90 g - and has low power consumption. This allows the product to be integrated into a wide range of civilian and special-purpose drones, including agricultural or geodetic quadcopters," Rosel said.
One of the prototypes will be tested on the Geodesy-401 UAV manufactured by Geoscan. This is a complex for aerial photography in urban conditions and quarries.
It is planned to begin production of the pilot batch of the identification system in 2025.
rostecru
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Lastly, Germany proudly announced a new powerful military package to Ukraine days ago. But already they are heavily backtracking, with much of the aid now reduced or postponed, as described here.
From the article:
But now things are changing! Yesterday evening, the company apparently felt compelled to change large parts of the online communication on the package. After editing, it is clear that a significant proportion of the new weapons systems and ammunition announced in the package had long been publicly promised or will not be delivered as originally promised.
In my eyes, this is a real communication disaster!
Going into detail, for instance, they note that out of the 4 promised IRIS-T air defense systems, only one can actually be realistically delivered, with the rest postponed to 2026—and likely beyond, we can guess. Likewise, the majority of actual missiles for this system are not expected until 2026 or later.
In summary, it can be said that, despite the official announcement, there will be no main battle tanks, no infantry fighting vehicles and only a single IRIS-T SLM fire unit, in which two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers are integrated, in addition to the weapon systems already promised this year.
Same old European PR bait-and-switch.
Judging by the above, what do you reckon are the chances Merz is able to fulfill ambassador Melnyk’s wild extravagances?
I guess a last resort shopping trip with Macron is in order.
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Remember all those times that European armies accepted "Ceasefires" when they were winning on the battlefield?
Nah, me neither.
Does anyone imagine if the Ukrainians were invading deep within Russia, the West would accept Russian pleas for such a ceasefire and freeze of the conflict??
Just came off a 14 hour shift and lo and behold, the mighty Simplicius and his majestic writing is waiting for me.