SITREP 3/2/23: AFU Strikes Brazen Cross-Border Terror Siege Into Russia

Reports are coming in this morning that the AFU is now resorting to one of the lowest forms of direct terrorism possible—giving stark echoes of the troubled Chechen War period, where militants blew up apartment blocks, sieged Moscow theaters, and committed mass casualty hostage/terror attacks on schools.

Today, a Ukrainian DRG sabotage group snuck over the Russian border in the Bryansk region, and laid siege to a tiny village for some sort of psychological attack. The intent, of course, was likely to take attention—as per the usual MO—from the impending Bakhmut catastrophe which is now claiming ‘two companies’ of men (250-500 soldiers) per day, according to this AFU soldier.

SIMPLICIUS The Thinker Ѱ @simpatico771

Jeeez....AFU soldier says they lose 2 companies PER DAY in Bakhmut. That's 200-400 soldiers and is in line with Russian estimates. Meanwhile, Prigozhin has stated Wagner loses 20 men on average day there. 10:1 ratio as we all suspected all along.

Details are scarce, so take everything with an unconfirmed pinch of salt, apart from the things with actual photo evidence. But so far what we’re piecing together is the following:

Map showing the Russian-Ukraine border, and the village of Sushany that was attacked.

The AFU DRG group snuck over the border—which is only a couple hundred meters—after first destroying Russian observation posts (cameras) with kamikaze drones, and took some ‘boasting photos’ in front of the local ‘official buildings’ of the very small village (100+ population). But then, they reportedly began to take hostages and had some type of fire fight which killed/injured several people.

Here’s a subtitled version of their video in front of the customs house:

Царь Владимир Владимирович @TsarofMoscow

Translated video of the so called "Russian Volunteer Corps"(CIA asset unit within the AFU)

They claim they are members of a Russian volunteers corps, i.e. the Russian traitors who joined the AFU. However, many of them have already been outed as prominent Ukrainians.

"Based on the videos, Readerovka found info. about 3 members of the sabotage group of the so-called Russian Volunteer Corps of the Ukrainian forces. The first is the Nazi Denis Kapustin, who became the leader of Vlasov's organization in Ukraine. Another is the Nazi poet Solar Cross, who even ended up in front of a Ukrainian court because of his verses about love to Nazism. And the last one is just an ordinary Nazi Alexander Naydyuk."

There were some reports that 40-80 troops participated in this siege, however the photo/videos can only attest to a small number.

A shootout occurred, during which one ~60 year old man died, and a 10 year old boy was shot/wounded, but made it to the hospital, according to reports. There were other reports that they tried to siege a school and various other things, but none have been confirmed so far. They were subsequently chased off the territory by Russian FSB forces.

War Monitor @WarMonitors

⚡️#BREAKING Ukrainian sources published a video of the "Russian Volunteer Corps" in the Bryansk region, which claims to have crossed the border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine

Putin himself issued a statement, and confirmed that they fired on a civilian car, killing a man and wounding the child.

Now a flood of reports circulate about potential high-level meetings in the Kremlin as a response, with the usual antipodal forecasts of what they will amount to. Some expect major ‘escalations’ while others expect the usual lukewarm ‘warnings’ of further red lines.

There are unconfirmed reports that Putin will hold private meetings with individual members of the security council today to work out initial decisions on the situation that would be implemented in tomorrow’s official meeting.

#BREAKING In the coming hours, Putin will hold an emergency meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation — Kremlin sources

Here’s a few accounts from alleged witnesses who were actually there:

And by the way, authorities are now preparing to reward the boy:

TASS: The authorities of the Bryansk region are preparing documents to present for an award for bravery to a ten-year-old boy who was wounded during an attack by Ukrainian saboteurs on a village in the Klimovsky district,but brought out two other children and helped them hide. This was announced by the Governor of the region Alexander Bogomaz on the First Channel. “We believe that the boy is a hero, we are preparing all the documents for awarding him the medal “For Courage”, the governor said.

Wargonzo reported the following:

WarGozo: More than 100 people are being held hostage by Ukrainian terrorists in the Bryansk region. According to incoming reports, at about 10:00 about 80 Ukrainian saboteurs entered the territory of the Bryansk region and, splitting up, headed to the villages of Sushany and Lyubechane, where they took local residents hostage.

And FSB now states they’ve recovered a ‘large amount of explosives’.

Many Russian congressmen and thought-leaders are having vociferous reactions to this latest incident:

State Duma Deputy Delyagin: “The only the normal response to the taking of hostages in the Bryansk region is the immediate elimination of Zelensky and Zaluzhny.”

And here’s one on the ground report:

At the moment, the exact number of hostages is unknown, according to preliminary data, there may be more than a hundred people. Some residents of the villages were able to escape, while others shut themselves in their homes.

At the moment, the places where Ukrainian terrorists operate are cordoned off by security forces, there is a battle for the release of hostages.

Also, a gas station and power generation unit / substation of some sort was reportedly hit and/or blown up in this Bryansk region, presumably by the same DRG’s.

Deputy of Duma: Elena Panina, Institute of Russian Strategic Studies: "Today's attacks by Ukrainian saboteurs on Russian territory, with attacks on children and taking civilians hostage, have turned Ukraine into an analogue of the Islamic State, and its security forces into a copy of the Ichkerian militants. There are no differences left. Those also recouped civilians, suffering military defeats. They also tried to bring terror to Russia. Murderers and terrorists have come to our land to kill our people. Whoever was in the DRG: regular officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, foreign mercenaries or traitor collaborators, today's raid was sanctioned by the leadership of Ukraine. The Kyiv regime is a terrorist organization. There don't talk to terrorists, don't trade or make deals - them are destroy"

The ever serene Dmitry Peskov had this to say:

"It's more of a PR move, the attack by the Ukrainian terrorist group, but the tragic thing is that there are innocent victims.

They wanted attention for 15 minutes, got it and ran away. There will be more in the future, but these are a sign of Ukraine's weakness; to punch and run... is not strength."

I’m inclined to side with Peskov. I understand the immediate knee-jerk lust for fire and brimstone after such provocations, but that’s exactly what the AFU was aiming for. Why should Russia jump to their carrot-on-a-stick goading attempt?

The fact of the matter is, you can’t completely root out ‘terrorism’ without subsequently descending into outright tyranny like the U.S. did after 9/11 with the ‘National Emergencies Act’, which incidentally Biden just renewed.

The AFU is goading Russia to off-balance them. They’re like a horsefly buzzing around a horse (or a bear?), nipping it in the butt, dancing to avoid the whip of the horsetail.

The fact of the matter is, the AFU is collapsing on every front. Bakhmut is almost done, Krem-Svatovo is increasingly pressured and AFU continues to incrementally fall back. Marinka, Avdeevka, and even Ugledar are now seeing gains, incremental though they may be. Ukraine has zero initiative anywhere. That means they’re forced to rely on progressively meaningless gimmickry, which has not only upped in tempo but has actually become less and less successful.

There were numerous recent ‘drone attack’ attempts on Crimea, St. Petersburg, near Moscow region, Sevastopol, Belarus (Minsk airport), and many others. And not a single one was successful. Everything they’re doing is now being fended off, increasingly with EW warfare, as the recent Tu-141 drones which crashed near Krasnodar were said to have been brought down by EW.

So to compensate for these failures, the AFU is now desperately relying on outright terrorism. Now, what I mean by ‘outright’ is this. I’ve written recursively for nearly a year now about ‘increasing terror attacks’, such that it may seem like a disingenuous skipping record. But, in the past it seemed to me the AFU used more effort in clothing their terror actions under the guise of legitimate strikes.

For instance, when they bomb Donetsk, they claim that either they’re striking Russian military targets, or that it’s the Russian forces doing the strikes. Same goes for hitting the Energodar nuke plant, or even hitting nominally ‘civilian’ targets in Bryansk/Kursk region, but at least they were targets of dual civilian-military purpose—like oil depots and electricity substations which obviously serve the Russian military in the region as well.

And even when they perpetrated outright terrorist massacres like Bucha and the Kramatorsk Tochka-U strike, they did it under the guise of blaming the Russian side.

But we’re now seeing a new shift. We’ve never witnessed them committing outright ‘out-in-the-daylight’ terror with full blanket admission. Not hiding behind excuses or guises but patently admitting and gloating over it.

For instance, take last week’s new Donetsk drone strikes. They didn’t try to ‘clothe’ them under some hybrid excuse but fully and openly targeted actual outright civilians in the city center of Donetsk in complete mimicry of ISIS terror acts, and then posted the footage themselves. This was a new level of brazenness we haven’t seen before.

Sure they covered Donetsk with petal mines on numerous occasions—but they never outright admitted to it, posted boastful videos as triumphant proof of their work; instead they stayed shtum and pretended it didn’t happen.

This shows an elevated level of desperation and ‘terminal mania’ of a sick, dying, diseased creature pleading to be put out of its misery. But should Putin and Russia off-balance themselves by reacting disproportionately to these provocations in a knee-jerk manner?

Well, why not tell me what you think?

And it’s not surprising that CNN gave platform to at least one of the terrorists previously:

Donbass Devushka @PeImeniPusha

Shocker, one of the terrorists had a CNN interview in ukraine... https://t.co/fsjJ0dadYP

It’s par for the course for the completely amoral Western spindoctors, such as this MSNBC host who cavalierly bemoaned Ukraine’s inability to repeat the Crimean terror attacks, while standing on Crimean territory. Luckily, there were a few bold residents nearby to put the buffoon in his place.

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In other news, as mentioned, the pincer is closing on Bakhmut. The dying gurgles and raspy throat-rattles of the writhing, bleeding beast of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is experiencing their calvary moment.

The DPR hacker consortium ‘Joker’, reports there are now armed mutinies in Bakhmut which are repudiating Zelensky’s order to fight to the last bloody drop.

Sort reports indicate that the entire area east of the Bakhmutovka River is collapsing, and Wagner musicians are swiftly sweeping in to reclaim the territory.

Here’s a more granular view of some of the eastern half:

And here’s a clearer full city view from Rybar:

Above you can see how a solid portion of the eastern half of the city has already been liberated.

And here’s a map of the last supply road left that’s not under full fire-control of Russian forces:

Bakhmut is re-oriented here 90 degrees counter-clockwise such that the left part of the photo is the ‘north’. The muddy fields between these roads are the only other way out, which likely explains why this recently escaped squad is covered head to toe in mud.

One top Ukrainian channel reports this as the main reason for Bakhmut’s precipitous collapse:

The Ukrainian TG channel "Resident" writes: The problem of the defense of Bahmut is that the OSU artillery practically does not take part in the battle, and the soldiers are forced to hold the front from 3 sides. You don't need to be a military expert to notice the difficulties with the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the problems with the morale component, when several companies die a day, while the defense of Bakhmut makes no strategic sense. It was much easier to align the front along Chasov Yar and repulse attacks from one side instead of three at once, while artillery would help our army, but politicians have their own view of the situation...

So, not only do they corroborate what the AFU soldier said, that they lose several companies per day (remember, this is in Bakhmut only. They lose many more men on other fronts, like the hot Svatovo theater), but that the chief culprit is their lack of artillery ammunition. According to the report, their artillery hardly ‘works at all’ on this front.

Either way, some report that most of the ‘elite’ units have already been withdrawn, and only 1500-2000 recently-mobilized, untrained ‘territorial defense’ have been stuffed as cannon-fodder to hold off the Russian advance for a little while longer. It’s difficult to know with certainty, if that’s true, though.

It’s only a short matter of time then, before the twilight sets on AFU’s occupation of Bakhmut, and so closes another chapter in reminiscent fashion. For someone once quoth:

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

SIMPLICIUS The Thinker Ѱ @simpatico771

History repeats itself, the first as tragedy, then as farce. - Karl Marx