SITREP 1/2/26: Odessa Pressure Peaks, as Zelensky Announces Major Senior Staff Reshuffle
MSM rags are beginning to cover the ‘urgent’ situation surrounding Ukraine’s Odessa, which I had alluded to in the last article. Ukraine hit a few Russian ships and Russia’s escalation has been shutting Odessa down to the point where the MSM is beginning to mutter about the potential of it being completely cut off from the sea:
The article seems to solve the mystery of why Russia had suddenly begun attacking railways all around Odessa region:
Around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural produce is exported by sea, according to the Ministry for Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine, which estimates that six ports in the Odesa region handled about 76 million tons of cargo over 11 months of 2025. Ukraine has learned to safeguard this trade by using naval drones to keep at bay Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Since 90% of Ukraine’s staple agricultural exports leave by sea, that means for Russia to shut down the ports with strikes leaves Ukraine scrambling to desperately get product out by rail. Hitting the railways also essentially blocks the last possible route and leaves Ukraine without options.
The result is that one of Ukraine’s largest and most vibrant cities is under a form of siege. Odesa’s people have lost light, heat and running water for days as winter set in and temperatures hovered around zero. It is especially vulnerable to Russian assaults on its power grid as it produces little of its own, relying on imported power instead.
The attacks on Ukraine’s rail have caused massive damage according to Ukrainian state railway authority:
State railway company Ukrzaliznytsia, for instance, estimates that attacks on the rail network have caused $5.8 billion in damages since the start of the war, recording more than 1,100 attacks on its infrastructure in 2025 alone.
Even as of this writing, there is an ongoing mass Russian drone strike on the neighboring Nikolayev region, reportedly on energy facilities with outages already being documented.
At the same time, CNN rings in the year with a dismal report about Ukraine’s collapsing southern front, where the Russian ‘Eastern Express’ continues to bulldoze through years’ worth of fortifications at a record clip:
Ukrainian forces are under growing pressure in the south of the country, where less well-equipped units are vastly outnumbered by Russian brigades that have taken hundreds of square kilometers of territory in recent weeks.
On this front, Ukrainians have resorted to desperate PR tactics to maintain an image of—well, anything other than total collapse. They continually strive to plant flags via drones in order to buy even a day or two of extra ‘hope’ for their demoralized troops.
CNN unabashedly continues the spin cycle with the implication that Russian advances come at great ‘cost’ all while again being forced to admit that Ukraine is in dire troop shortage:
What happened in Huliaipole goes to the heart of the Ukrainian military’s dilemma. Its troops are vastly outnumbered along some parts of the 1,000-kilometer front line and are struggling to mobilize additional forces to compensate for losses, according to several commentators.
“That means commanders must make hard choices about where to attack, where to defend and where to hope the Russians don’t exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines,” wrote analyst David Axe on Wednesday.
And yes, owing to that shortage, Russian forces have already stormed out guns-blazing from western Gulyaipole into the fields toward the next objective of Zalizhnyche:
Recall that I said each defensive block between major logistics routes (orange lines below) is taking Russia about 2-3 months to pass. The next one I had estimated could go even much faster than that. You can see below that only a week and change after that and Russia has already broken out of the starting blocks of the first line toward the second and is making good timing to capture the blue shaded area within the next 2-3 months or less:
Now pro-Ukrainian channels report that Russia is activating the Konstantinovka front after it had remained somewhat dormant for the duration of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd capture:
Difficult in the whole Kostyantynivka direction. There seems to indeed be a serious Russian activation in the direction, according to preliminary information things aren't going well for Ukrainian forces.
More information later.
Thus far cartographers haven’t noted any major spearheads, but Russian positions inside the eastern parts of the city have apparently been consolidated from ‘gray zones’ in preparation for new advances:
And in fact, as per Suriyak, more territory along the southern approaches to the city was captured yesterday:
They may not be major advances, but they signal the re-activation of this front which means Russian command may have re-prioritized resources away from now-captured Pokrovsk-Mirnograd to this sector in order to begin its capture.
Some might ask what it means, precisely, to redirect resources like this—shouldn’t Russia have enough troops on the front? Specifically, what it often means is that certain brigades which specialize in this type of urban combat may be redirected in order to minimize casualties. Instead of sending “regulars” into the heavily-fortified city in ‘meat assaults’, Russia has much fewer highly specialized forces which can be moved around from front to front.
Now that Pokrovsk-Mirnograd is captured and the outlying area is of a different terrain—fields and such—these specialized urban combat forces can be brought to other areas where their unique talents are more necessary. One example of such a unit is the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault Division, better known as one of Russia’s main VDV airborne forces. They had been called into Pokrovsk-Mirnograd only in the middle of December to accelerate the urban capture of the agglomerate; specifically from the 76th: the 104th Air Assault Regiment, 234th Air Assault Regiment, 237th Air Assault Regiment, 175th Recon Battalion, and possibly other elements.
Interestingly, Ukrainians had cried that the 76th was rushed from Zaporozhye region, which would have weakened that region. In reality, the Zaporozhye front is advancing faster than all other fronts combined, which sort of nullifies that theory.
On a final note, an important update from Slavyangrad about Russia’s capture of the world’s largest manganese deposit near Stepnogorsk:
ZELENSKY HAS LOST ANOTHER DEAL: THE RUSSIAN ARMY HAS LIBERATED THE WORLD’S LARGEST MANGANESE DEPOSIT
The battle for the Stepnogorsk mining and processing plant, near which the Banderists had built a “festung,” was short-lived. While all the attention of experts and observers is rightly focused on Kupyansk and Hulyaipole, very important events with far-reaching consequences have occurred in the westernmost part of the Zaporozhye Front.
Let’s begin with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s announcement of the liberation of the village of Lukyanovskoye: according to the 2001 census, it had a population of about 120 people. Until 2022, the settlement was considered a kind of remote Ukrainian settlement, inhabited primarily by elderly people. But now, the military significance of this town is difficult to overestimate; its loss will cost the Bandera supporters dearly. Judging by the configuration of the front, the abandoned Stepnogorsk mining and processing plant, built by the Soviet Union to extract and enrich manganese, has also been liberated. Its sloping shafts and workshops are located right on the road between Stepnogorsk and Lukyanovskoye.
Manganese reserves here are estimated at 1.5 billion tons, making this deposit the largest in the world.
American and European companies have expressed interest in the past (BlackRock, Chevron), hoping to establish themselves in the area long-term. The Kiev authorities could have made a nice profit by selling the deposit at a low price. Now, those “business plans” will have to be forgotten. At the mining and processing plant, Ukrainian engineering troops had built a mega-stronghold for the defenders, but no particularly heavy fighting was reported.
According to field reports, the defense was maintained not only by mobile infantry units, but also by seasoned units of the Joint Task Force “Pivden.” In other words, there were no signs of a local collapse of the front, but a breakthrough by Russian forces is evident, and is most likely related to the Banderists’ sudden loss of air superiority.
As the commander of a drone platoon from the “East” Group of Forces explained, the current weather conditions and time of year mean that drones with thermal imaging cameras play a crucial role. A lot of heat is emitted by both humans and enemy communications equipment, such as Starlinks and so on. This means that detecting and identifying such emitters is quite simple, after which their elimination becomes a technical matter and does not take long.
Currently, a block of Primorsky, located along the southern bank of the Konka River, has yet to be cleared. Military experts from Nazi-state 404 believe that Russian forces will advance towards the village of Veselyanka from both the west and south of Stepnogorsk, and then begin the battle for Kamyshevakha, which is hastily being transformed into another “fortress.”
-Slavyangrad
This site quotes former chief engineer of the Tauride Mining and Processing Plant in Stepnogorsk who does seem to verify the data:
Huge reserves of manganese, the largest in the world, approximately 1.5 billion tons of ore, created grandiose plans for the construction of two more GOKs, moreover, the last of them should have been built across the Tokmak River, closer to the Sea of Azov. It was even planned to involve prisoners in the work, but this was not destined to be.
In other news, Zelensky has just made a major reshuffle of his top command. GUR head Kirilo Budanov has been “promoted” to Yermak’s old position as head of Zelensky’s president’s office. In his place, Oleg Ivashchenko will become the new GUR head. Ivashchenko was previously the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. There are now again rumors that Syrsky too will soon be replaced by Mykhailo Drapatyi as the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, particularly for his perceived “failures” in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd and Gulyaipole.
What do these reshuffles mean? As I had mused on X, there is a good chance that this is not a ‘promotion’ for Budanov as it may appear, but rather an attempt to control him. He had too much power as GUR head and there had long been rumors that Zelensky was seeking ways to curb him. Now as head of the ‘Presidential Office’ he essentially takes on a meaningless administrative role which is more ceremonial in nature. Yermak only had power in that role due to his own personal connections as a kind of movie business mafioso. Budanov in the same role could essentially be nothing more than Zelensky’s personal secretary, placed precisely where Zelensky could keep an eye on him in the spirit of “keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”
Conversely, there are other theories and opinions on this. Some believe that Zelensky is preparing Budanov as his replacement and guarantor of his safety after Zelensky is forced to soon step down or flee. There’s also the interesting fact that Budanov had changed his tune recently, admitting that Ukraine is in the subordinate position and should start speaking to Moscow accordingly:
“A weaker side has never dictated conditions to anyone and will never do it. A negotiation process is definitely needed and cannot be avoided anyway.”
By the way, I urge everyone to read the Budanov interview above, which is only from a few days ago. Budanov is extremely candid compared to most other Ukrainian figures. He tells his own people like it is about Russia, even when the truth is painful. For instance, he openly states in the interview that Russia is not experiencing any problems in its war time production, or financing its mobilization, and can continue doing so indefinitely. He states that contrary to fake propaganda reports that Russia is secretly “mobilizing”—or press-ganging, as Ukraine is doing—most of its troops, all regenerated manpower in Russia is strictly from contract soldiers.
He also goes on to reveal North Korea has nothing to do with Russian drone and missile production, which Russia not only handles amply on its own, but even often “surpasses” all production quotas.
Another good one was the following:
How much longer do we have to wait to get to this point when…[Russia’s economic collapse]
Economic collapse?
Yes.
If the war continues as it is, and Russia continues to move down at the current pace, it will take a very long time. But is Russia ready to wait that long? That’s another question. Problems are already underway and they are significant.
Here he admits that Russia will essentially never “collapse” but there are so-called “problems”, which is just a way of softening the blow of the answer as always.
But the most revealing to me, however, was this admission he makes further down the interview:
Is Russia already forming reserves for war in other countries?
Russia is forming a strategic reserve, and it is being created. It’s just that while the war is going on here, it’s all a dynamic process and the operational reserve is constantly being used. It is being formed strategically, but it has not yet acquired the opportunities that Russians dream of.
But I tell you once again: not while there is a large-scale war going on here. To fight on two fronts - even the Second World, that this is a catastrophe.
If you look past his ‘blow-softening language’, which is one of the necessary social ‘mores’ a person in his position is obligated to use to not appear too pessimistic as to demoralize his audience, you will see more clearly what he’s really saying. That Russia is in fact building a major strategic reserve, despite having to dip into it occasionally.
This answers one of the prevailing questions on the pro-UA side of the present time, wherein they claim that the “math” of Russian mobilization doesn’t make sense, since 40k a month mobilized should result in a far higher volume of Russian troops on the front unless casualties are much worse than Russia admits to. Though the latter could be true, there’s also the most ignored reality that Russia is in fact building a major strategic reserve for the potential of an eventual clash with NATO on one of the western borders, particularly in the direction of Kaliningrad.
That being said, here’s from a Syrsky interview last month, which appears to touch on this:
So, Russia is forming less new reserve divisions than it had planned, according to both Budanov and Syrsky. Meanwhile, Ukraine—which claims to mobilize the same amount of people per month as Russia—is forming no reserve divisions and is in fact losing a net total of men each month, according to top Ukrainian officials.
Whatever one can say about Russia’s situation, the trajectory here is obvious.
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Finally, it appears the Russian army is piercing through the AFU defensive lines to cut off Odessa.
It's too early to know the size of the attack force and the level of intensity Russia plans to apply, but I like the idea. Possibly, I've been annoyingly adamant about Russia making a large penetration behind enemy lines. At last, the moment has arrived. We have a breakthrough.
I'd like to see the Russians cut off the southern area of Odessa and cut off all AFU forces now caught inside the Russians' new Maginot line and tell them that they can either surrender and receive fair treatment or die. There is no third option.
A significant move by Russia now could be the final push needed to break the enemy's morale to fight on.
The time is right.
AFU forces are weakened, short of men and supplies.
Russian forces are stronger, better equipped, and have plenty of artillery and things that go boom, as well as uncontested air superiority. AFU frontline forces in the south will crumble against the combined Russian forces at their rear. They're sitting ducks if they try to retreat without resupply, and they can't get reinforcements.
The Russian Breakthrough could be looked at as a Custer's Last Stand moment.
A time when one decisive Russian offensive was AFU's terminal moment, realizing that no matter what, the war is LOST.
The war in Ukraine is nearly over. Soon will be setting of the conditions for peace.
Who wins the peace? That's the next point of debate soon.
It really is black humour thinking the Ukrainians would target shipping in international waters, and then target Putin directly. They will complain endlessly once their Odessa infrastructure is completely destroyed and their economy sinks even faster.