SITREP 12/21/24: Things Heat Up in Kherson, Ukraine Losses Update, and More
After a period of strange rumors that Russian forces may attempt to storm the Dnieper, last night Russian forces began a massive artillery and MLRS bombardment of the Kherson region with claimed attempts of isolated groups to cross to the other side.
Details are scarce, and no one quite yet knows if this is all a part of some psyop campaign to throw the AFU off, or a real concerted beginning toward a major operation. Here’s what some of the reports are saying:
For several days now, heavy processing of APU facilities in Kherson has been underway. Strikes occur both at night and during the day. The enemy expects our offensive in this sector and claims that the Russian forces are grouped up to 120 thousand people on the left bank.
Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev believes that the Russian army will create several bridgeheads on the right bank of the Dnieper. At the same time, according to him, an offensive operation will take place in Zaporozhye. According to him, the first wave will also include up to 2,000 troops and 300 boats.
From RVVoenkor:
They report Russian forces stormed the Antonovsky Bridge area and captured or consolidated the dachas around it:
Hell in Kherson: Russian Army breaks through and consolidates dachas near Antonovsky Bridge near Kherson
▪️This was reported by director Sergei Zeynalov, who previously lived in Kherson.
▪️He reported that Kherson experienced “hell” the night before last, and the shelling reached the speed of “1000 shells in 40 minutes.” And at that moment, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups tried to enter the city from the Antonovsky Bridge several times.
➖"The Russians have secured positions right behind the bridge, at the dachas," he said. The dacha area is on the left bank of the Dnieper and is partially controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
▪️Yesterday, Kherson authorities reported a sabotage and reconnaissance group attack on the city and heavy shelling on the night of December 20.
▪️ Zeynalov reports that Russian fighters were able to gain a foothold on the left bank in the Dachi area, which they can use as a springboard to attack the right bank, Antonovka and Kherson.
▪️Earlier in Kyiv it was reported that the Russian Armed Forces have plans to force the Dnieper in the near future, although this is an extremely difficult operation.
Nikolayev governor Kim confirmed some of the information in a video, though he remained confident, claiming Ukrainian forces on that side are ready for everything and that populations can be evacuated if necessary.
The interesting wrinkle was a new satellite map revealed that Ukraine had recently constructed a line of fortifications just in front of the area where Russia seemed to aim their assault, as if they’d long been expecting a cross-Dnieper offensive:
A wider view for context so you can see where the fortifications are in reference to the Antonovsky assault—Vysoke seen above is circled below, with the yellow line indicating the rough placement of fortifications:
The situation is confused because the AFU itself continues attempts to storm the river, with both small DRGs which are quickly eliminated, as well as larger forces. This video from last week gave the first recent glimpse of what the riverbed in that area may look like:
A final report claimed some Russian sabotage groups even made it to the other side, but at this stage it’s impossible to verify it as yet:
In the Kherson direction, the enemy claims that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been spotted on the right bank, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are located, in the area of the Antonovsky Bridge. There is, however, no official confirmation of this information. There is objective control data on the most powerful combined attacks on the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions. Thus, the largest anti-tank missile defense system, located in one of the buildings of the former oncology hospital, was hit by a missile strike. The enemy used the floors of the hospital to install electronic warfare systems and launch UAVs, and to treat lightly wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers
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Elsewhere, Russian forces have finally captured virtually all of the residential parts of Kurakhove, with only the industrial western area with the thermal power plant remaining:
They’ve also captured the entirety of Novy Komar north of Velyka Novosilka:
As well as expanding their hold in the southwest pincer and making their way into the town proper in the southeast, slowly bringing the stronghold into encirclement.
In the last report I covered how General Syrsky inadvertantly exposed the West’s narrative of high Russian losses with his bombshell that Russia actually gained 100k troops just in 2024 alone. Now we have something complementary to further reinforce and supplement this determination.
Yesterday another ‘exchange of bodies’ was announced, which was so lopsided in Russia’s favor that even I was at first instinctually skeptical. For the past two exchanges, the numbers were extremely lopsided, nor any ‘source’ given so I retained a healthy sense of skepticism, refusing to post about it until I can uncover more validating info for myself.
Previously, the exchanges I had reported on went as follows:
May 31 exchange: 45 Russian bodies vs. 212 Ukrainian bodies.
June 14 exchange: 32 Russian bodies vs. 254 Ukrainian bodies.
August 4 exchange: 38 Russian bodies vs. 250 Ukrainian bodies.
October 18 exchange: 89 Russian bodies vs. 501 Ukrainian bodies.
Since then, there have been three new claimed exchanges as follows:
November 8 exchange: 37 Russian bodies vs. 563 Ukrainian bodies.
November 29 exchange: 48 Russian bodies vs. 502 Ukrainian bodies.
December 20 exchange: 42 Russian bodies vs. 508 Ukrainian bodies.
As you can see, the last few have gotten so lopsided it began to raise questions.
I looked into the sources and was shocked to find they were pretty much verified by Ukraine’s side, with a small caveat.
Taking just yesterday’s as an example, it was reported directly by Russian Duma deputy Shamsail Saraliev, which was subsequently reposted by all the top Russian news outlets like Lenta, Tass, RBC, etc.
The bodies of 42 dead soldiers were returned to Russia. This was stated by the representative of the parliamentary coordination group on military operations, State Duma deputy Shamsail Saraliev.
The bodies of 503 dead Ukrainian soldiers were returned to the Ukrainian side. According to Saraliev, the exchange took place on December 20.
The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War specified that 403 bodies were transferred from Donetsk, 12 from Luhansk, 57 from Zaporizhia, and the rest were returned from morgues in Russia.
It was further independently corroborated by frontline reporter Alexander Kots who gained further information from his own sources, including the precise checkpoint where the exchange occurred, which was Gomel, Belarus region:
But this is still just ‘hearsay’ from the Russian side. So now we turn to what Ukrainian officials reported. The official Telegram channel for the ‘Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War’ reported on the exchange of bodies. This organization is part of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and appears to be headed by Budanov himself since 2022. Their official website is here, which also reported on the exchange, even listing precisely where all 503 Ukrainian bodies were from:
Now here’s the catch:
None of the Ukrainian sources list the Russian bodies returned to Russia—only Russia itself lists this. So, we do have confirmation from both sides of the Ukrainian body count, but only confirmation from the Russian side for the Russian bodycount. This means technically Russia could be making up a lower figure—to play devil’s advocate—but it is unlikely.
Why? Because if Russia’s bodycount was high, Ukraine would readily have reported it. For instance, if the exchange was around ~500 to ~500, then you would think logically the Ukrainian sources would have noted the Russian losses. But because the Russian losses appear so comparatively low, the Ukrainian reports simply omit them, only listing their own repatriated bodies in order to maintain narrative.
Thus, we can say with fairly high confidence that the exchanges are probably accurate, and this points to horrific loss ratios for Ukraine. Let’s tally them all up:
May 31 exchange: 45 Russian bodies vs. 212 Ukrainian bodies.
June 14 exchange: 32 Russian bodies vs. 254 Ukrainian bodies.
August 4 exchange: 38 Russian bodies vs. 250 Ukrainian bodies.
October 18 exchange: 89 Russian bodies vs. 501 Ukrainian bodies.
November 8 exchange: 37 Russian bodies vs. 563 Ukrainian bodies.
November 29 exchange: 48 Russian bodies vs. 502 Ukrainian bodies.
December 20 exchange: 42 Russian bodies vs. 508 Ukrainian bodies.
Russian losses: 331
Ukrainian losses: 2,790
Ratio: 8.43 to 1
Now, the next natural objection is always: “Ukraine is retreating, so Russia gets to pick up more of the bodies, while Ukraine leaves its dead behind.”
Yes, and the reason Ukraine is retreating is because they’re taking heavier losses and losing in general. If they weren’t taking the losses, they wouldn’t be retreating—it would be Russia retreating.
But, wait: “That’s not right. Ukraine isn’t necessarily retreating because they’re taking heavier losses, it’s because Russia has MORE men! Ukraine is so outnumbered, they can dole out more casualties onto Russia while still being forced to retreat due to being outnumbered!”
Yes, unfortunately Ukraine started off the war vastly outnumbering Russia with a claimed 1 million troops to Russia’s 250,000. How is it that Russia is now outnumbering Ukraine by such a high count? There’s only one answer, and you know what it is.
Of course, it is true Russia is likely picking up more dead and thus the 8:1 ratio is probably skewed somewhat in accordance to this; I’m simply arguing that the ‘retreating’ myth is not entirely responsible for it. Maybe instead of 8:1 the real ratio is 5:1 or whatever it may be, but we have every indication it’s still greatly in Russia’s favor—this is just the latest in a long line of evidence which includes Syrsky’s stunning admission of 100k net Russian gain for 2024 while Ukrainian officials simultaneously revealed Ukraine now suffers a net monthly loss of troops.
Also, one of the reports stated the following:
▪️At the end of November, the total number of already identified bodies of soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stored in morgues in southern Russia awaiting exchange, exceeded 4,000.
RVvoenkor
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Which segues us:
A series of interviews with Ukrainian officers, who spoke anonymously, given the sensitivity of the issue, paint a worrying picture for Ukraine’s war effort.
“The people we get now are not like the people who were there in the beginning of the war,” said one soldier currently serving in Ukraine’s 114th territorial defence brigade, who has been stationed in various hotspots over the past two years. “Recently, we received 90 people, but only 24 of them were ready to move to the positions. The rest were old, sick or alcoholics. A month ago, they were walking around Kyiv or Dnipro and now they are in a trench and can barely hold a weapon. Poorly trained, and poorly equipped,” he said.
The article goes on to write that Ukraine is sending air defense soldiers as infantry:
Two sources in air defence units told the Guardian the deficit at the front has become so acute that the general staff has ordered already-depleted air defence units to free up more men to send to the front as infantry.
“It’s reaching a critical level where we can’t be sure that air defence can function properly,” said one of the sources, saying he had been prompted to speak out by a fear that the situation was a risk to Ukraine’s security.
“These people knew how air defence works, some had been trained in the West and had real skills, now they are sent to the front to fight, for which they have no training,” said the source.
Of course, this was countered by certain Russian analysts noting that recently Russia even sent Strategic Missile Force troops as assault infantry as well. And I mentioned previously Russia was reportedly making assault squads out of airfield technicians, pilots, et cetera. However, upon digging I did learn these were not actively needed personnel, and were usually people who were deemed reserves or redundant in their positions.
Either way, the contradiction can easily be explained by the classic 3:1 ratio needed for successful assaults. If Russian troops hypothetically outnumber Ukraine on a given front by a large amount, they could still technically be considered “short on troops” because you need a much larger force disparity to successfully assault without huge losses. Simply assaulting head-on at 1:1 could succeed but with high losses, so it’s best to concentrate as high disparities as possible, for which Russia presumably seeks to generate additional forces wherever possible in order to effect this. There are also the previous tooth-to-tail arguments, given that Ukraine can afford to field more frontline units out of its “total” active force since NATO fills in as Ukraine’s ‘rear’ noncombat contingent. Meanwhile, Russia can have far more ‘active’ units, but is required to utilize more of them in noncombat logistics roles, thus needing to generate more active combat ones.
Ukrainian journalist Vladimir Boyko said that he foresees by spring of 2025, the AFU will simply begin to scatter and run away on every front:
We may be entering a stage of heightened Ukrainian provocation attempts in lead up to Trump’s inauguration. There has been a rash of SBU-orchestrated arson attacks throughout Russia, assassinations—like that of General Kirillov—followed by various new ATACMS, HIMARS, and drone strikes, particularly yesterday’s brazen one on various residential buildings in Kazan.
I agree with the following analysis, which is very much to the point:
The British intelligence agency MI6, together with the CIA, wants to develop the topic of arson and fireworks (near ATMs and MFC) swept through the regions of Russia in recent days, with propaganda about "Russian rebels" and Ukrainian intelligence. In fact, the SBU works by deceiving mentally ill and over-credited people, forcing them to commit such rash acts.
According to some sources, the enemy is planning attacks by surface and air drones on infrastructure and military facilities in Armenia and Georgia. It will also try to reach out to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, hook the Northern and Pacific fleets and remote, significant economic objects. Creating the impression that Russia has lost control of the situation in its air and water space. All this will be done to bring Russia to a favorable negotiating position in January-February 2025 and force us to a truce for 2-3 years.
This comes just as CIA chief Burns visited Kiev for the last time, likely to give Zelensky his final instructions:
The objective is to create a swell of negative perception around Russia’s war efforts in order to keep Ukraine in the game when the expected “negotiations” season starts upon Trump’s arrival.
The problem is, recent signals indicate Trump may infact be regressing into the same old warhawk model as reports came today that Trump intends to continue arming Ukraine come late January:
This could be more preemptive sabotage by the MSM, but Trump has not yet denied it, as he so often vociferously does when some ‘fake news’ about him is spread.
As such, we cannot help but make the following projection for one possible outcome:
When Trump takes office and ceasefire overtures to Russia are rejected, Trump may revert to more war as suggested above. In this case, we now know from other recent sources that Zelensky has internally agreed to drop the mobilization age if more weapons are promised. As such, if Trump allows the war hawks to totally puppeteer him again, we can foresee an outcome where Ukraine gets its arms and aid quid pro quo then lowers mobilization, and the war continues on in the current grinding fashion. After all, a Ukrainian advisor to the Committee on Economic Development stated on video that the age will definitely be lowered to 18-20 by February-March 2025:
According to Volyansky, an adviser to the Committee on Economic Development, Western partners have been calling for this since 2022. The decision, according to him, will be made no later than March.
We can see that, as is always the case, Trump appears to be backsliding on all campaign promises. Early reports claimed he was exploring options to support Israel striking Iran, and now the new reports about continuing military aid to Ukraine. It seems increasingly likely the swamp will slowly assimilate Trump’s second term leading ultimately to little difference in foreign policy from the Biden administration.
Lastly, as of this writing it’s being reported a US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet has been shot down by its own Ticonderoga class warship while conducting illegal terror strikes against Yemen:
Recall the talks of Russia’s “IFF failures” and ‘unprofessionalism’ when Russia suffered friendly fire incidents. Except Russia is in a near-peer conflict, while the US IFF doesn’t even function in a low contested environment. The US couldn’t even shoot down a Chinese balloon without major failures. The US would rue the day it ever got into a near-peer scenario, as such incidents would be near daily occurrences in today’s highly degraded and deteriorated US armed forces.
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It's really bad news if Trump decides to keep fueling the one sided conflict in Ukraine...Ukraine will become demographically dead...and there is no possibility of success..Is this Black Rock's idea?
Well USA policy has successfully detatched Europe from Russia, both politically (for at least a generation) and economically. Trump says that Europe has to buy US energy or face tariffs, which they will, as they few other realistic options to fill the hole that was provided by Russia and need to keep exporting to the USA.
On the war I wondered if Trump was simply blustering or actually playing a good game here. Bearing in mind he has actually personally said very little - though this is not what you may think. He has said Europe needs to spend 5% of gdp on defence, 3.5% straightaway - ie c double current spend. This won't happen and is a precondition for continuing US support for Ukraine. We understand that Z has said he won't negotiate except on terms based on his ludicrous peace plan. He needs to negotiate on Trump's terms, whatever they may be. So Mr T has set both Europe and Ukraine up to be abandoned. Russia has simply said it is prepared to talk, but only to a legitimate power. I cannot follow whether it has set any preconditions but I think not simply to open a dialogue.
The best plan for Mr T is to walk away from this tar baby as soon as possible. There are worrying signals that he won't, and that he may have formed the view that he can coerce Russia to accept some sort of de facto defeat, pulled from the jaws of its victory. Well, we live in interesting times.