SITREP 1/17/25: Russia-Iran's Landmark Agreement Imitated in Starmer's Last Minute Kiev Stunt
A big day of future-securing meetings as Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian touched down in Moscow to sign the awaited comprehensive economic and defense agreement with Putin:
The signed agreement between Russia and Iran contains a clause on strengthening cooperation in the field of security and defense, as stated in the first article of the document.
The third article stipulates that if one of the parties is subjected to aggression, the other should not provide any assistance to the aggressor.
Russia and Iran also agreed on cooperation between intelligence agencies in order to strengthen national security and counter common threats.
Article 5
2. Military cooperation between the Contracting Parties covers a wide range of issues, including the exchange of military and expert delegations, calls of warships and vessels to ports.
4. The Contracting Parties consult and cooperate in the field of countering common military threats and threats to security of a bilateral and regional nature.
Article 8
1. The Contracting Parties protect the rights and legitimate interests of their citizens in the territory of the Contracting Parties.
Russian analyst Starshe Edda provides commentary on the difference between the two strategic partnerships with North Korea and now Iran:
The key difference between Russia's treaties with Iran and the DPRK is the issue of alliance. The treaty signed with Pyongyang – unconditionally union, it contains more substantial obligations of the parties for military support than most of these documents today, including the notorious 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which formed the NATO bloc. In accordance with Article 4, the parties expressly, without any reservations about consultations and so on, undertake to provide each other with military and other assistance by all available means.
The agreement with Iran is different. Its article 3 provides for an obligation, if one of the parties is attacked, not to support the aggressor and to help resolve the conflict.
This is a fundamental difference in the current warring world, and the grounds for it are clear: Russia and Iran have fairly different views on the world, including in the Middle East, and it would be unnecessary to fit in with Tehran’s obligation to cover it in the event of an attack – most Iranian conflicts lie outside the field of Russian interests. As well as vice versa.
But here is what Iran and [Russia] can help each other – including in terms of circumventing the – sanctions regimes, we will help each other. Including in the production of weapons.
At the same time Keir Starmer made a ‘surprise visit’ to Kiev where he attempted to upstage Russia by likewise signing a “100-year partnership” with Ukraine, pledging billions of UK citizens’ tax dollars:
Starmer promised to ‘explore options for [British] military bases in Ukraine’. The full agreement on the official UK Gov site can be read here. The common understanding is that Starmer was sent by his globalist masters to prevent Zelensky from falling under Trump’s persuasion for ending the war. The Europeans in general are now terrified of being ‘locked out’ of Ukrainian negotiations as Trump stands to bulldoze them out of the way and deal with Putin directly, giving Europe as always no say in its own future.
This came on the heels of reports that the UK and France have continued ‘secret meetings’ regarding peace keeper troop deployments to Ukraine.
Even the Telegraph authors seem dubious given the dismal yearly depletion the British armed forces have suffered of late, with its army reportedly down to its lowest troop count since Napoleon’s time:
Putting British troops on the ground in Ukraine comes amid a backdrop of cuts to the Armed Forces which had called its credibility as a fighting force into question.
The number of Army soldiers fell below 73,000 in May for the first time since the Napoleonic era as all three military services have struggled to recruit and retain personnel in recent years.
Meanwhile, new reports claim that France is secretly preparing a contingent of 2,000 troops to enter Ukraine and has conducted the ‘Perseus’ war games which apparently simulated fighting on the Belarus front:
This is interesting for two reasons:
Firstly, because Belarusian generals have now come out saying there are secret Ukrainian plans to seize parts of Belarus and overthrow the government to expand the war, and secondly, because Russian sources report despite ‘claims’ the exercises simulated the Belarusian border, they in actuality imitated the Dnieper River area:
Intelligence online writes that France has secretly trained 2,000 of its troops to enter Ukraine. In the fall of 2024, secret exercises Perseus were held, which practiced the deployment of French special forces on the territory of Ukraine to repel an attack from Belarus. However, for some reason, the exercises were conducted in an area imitating the Dnieper River.
Military Watch above corroborates this as the part of the Dnieper north of Kiev. What’s further interesting about that is the Telegraph article specifically notes British plans as including a potential Kiev deployment zone, as one of three proposed plans:
The Telegraph writes about three scenarios for the deployment of a contingent of British troops in Ukraine. Create points along the buffer zone, patrolled by fighter jets and attack helicopters and rapid reaction forces in the rear.
In the second option, they want to create a line of defense around Kiev, which will release some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the front line. And the third and most likely option is to send troops to the west of Ukraine under the cover of a powerful air defense system and conduct training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there.
To me, this is all nothing more than the same old attempts to come up with a joint plan for protecting Ukraine from falling when the point comes that Russia totally overruns AFU lines, and the AFU begins collapsing en masse. They say so themselves in the above Telegraph article:
A coalition of the willing could be formed to create a defensive cordon around the Ukrainian capital, relieving Ukraine’s own forces to be sent forward to stem any Russian advance.
This is a theory which has been discussed by officials and strategists in Western capitals, but is seen as the nuclear option, one which very few are genuinely willing to countenance.
The “allies” know they have a limited number of troops at their disposal, so they’re desperately trying to decide whether it’s more efficacious to protect the Dnieper zone, the capital of Kiev, or something else—like Odessa. In truth, Russia won’t care much because Article 5 doesn’t apply to Ukrainian territory, and the prospective NATO contingents in Ukraine won’t have much logistics backends or local infrastructure to deal with a major Russian push.
Zelensky himself just embarrassed NATO even further by declaring that all of Europe stands no chance against Russia alone without Ukrainian help—listen carefully below, it’s one of the few times Zelensky doesn’t lie:
Two nights ago Ukraine launched arguably their largest drone attack of the entire war on Russia, spurring concerns that all those promised Western ‘programs’ to supercharge Ukraine’s drone production have finally come into full bloom:
Since yesterday evening, the regions of the Russian Federation have been subjected to the first massive attack by missiles and UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least 200 drones in total. The greatest damage was caused to the Saratov region - most of the UAVs were shot down, but some flew. The fuel and energy complex - Saratov Oil Refinery-was attacked. For the second time in a week, the Kristall oil depot of the Federal Reserve in Engels was hit. At the moment, the elimination of consequences continues at both sites.
In Tatarstan, Kazan was under attack, strikes by drones "Fierce" and "Inferno". Under attack was the base of liquefied gases at the Kazanorgsintez facility, tanks are burning. Drone arrivals were seen in the residential area and Aviastroitelny-near the S. P. Gorbunov plant, where enemy drones were flying. For the first time, the work of air defense was noted in the city of Almetyevsk, several hundred kilometers southeast of Kazan - oil facilities were under attack.
In the Bryansk region, the Bryansk chemical plant in the village of Seltso was attacked.For the attack, the APU used ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, as well as UAVs.The exact damage to the company is not yet clear.About 35 more UAV arrivals were recorded in the Orel region, Voronezh, Kursk and Tula region.14 drones were shot down over the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of the Rostov region.
This comes right after the NY Times announced a new secret program by the US to fund Ukraine’s drone development to the tune of an additional $1.5 billion black budget dollars, not ledgered in the previous Biden admin funds. And this program had only run from 2024 onward, rather than the beginning of the war:
The New York Times, citing a declassified document, writes about investing $ 1.5 billion in the development of UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from September 2024. This is among other secret infusions that we don't know about. According to Jake Sullivan, the US national Security Adviser, this investment had a "real strategic impact" on the course of hostilities.
The money was allocated for the purchase of spare parts, the process is controlled by CIA special agents sent to Ukraine.
Large-scale investment in UAVs was accelerated, which is interesting - after the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv region, when the limits of "normal capabilities of Ukraine" were reached.
On top of that, Forbes reports the long awaited Anduril ‘Hyperscale’ drone plant is finally going up in Ohio, due to become the ‘largest ever’ infrastructure project in Ohio history:
The new facility, announced by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Lt. Governor Jon Husted, and JobsOhio, and represents the biggest new project ever in Ohio’s history by number of employees.
The article however delivers a dose of reality as well: Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks, chief ‘champion’ of the Replicator project, is leaving, which essentially puts the project’s future in doubt. That’s after ex-Google head Eric Schmidt had already last year admitted that much of their initiatives like Project White Stork had failed due to the inability to gain enough consensus and momentum on the projects from the various involved partners. The Anduril factory above is only beginning construction—who knows when it can actually realistically hire and train those 4,000 workers and be up and running.
Either way, ostensibly in response to Ukraine’s attacks Russia launched its own series of withering strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure:
In response to ATACMS strikes and an attempt to disrupt gas supplies through the "Turkish Stream," the Russian Armed Forces targeted gas and energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
They successfully hit the ground infrastructure of Ukraine's largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lvov region.
Not mentioned was that several thermal power plants were again reportedly hit as well. On top of which, another training center was hit by Iskanders in Krivoy Rog, with footage showing strewn bodies all around the building as well as various reports of potential NATO trainers being killed, like this one:
❗️Russian missile strikes in Krivoy Rog killed a Danish F-16 instructor.
In today's strikes on the aviation college in Krivoy Rog, a NATO pilot instructor from Denmark was killed. His friends confirmed to death on social media today.
The Dane had allegedly leaked his location to a local prostitute. — via Mission Z
But despite the perhaps overly ambitious promises of Anduril and the like, Ukraine has been making innovations in the drone department. I reported a couple weeks back about how Ukraine’s new naval drones were armed with Soviet R-73 air-to-air missiles, and had already successfully shot down Russian helicopters near Crimea.
Now a Tor air defense system was hit by a Ukrainian naval drone which was acting as a mothership for FPVs. The naval drone delivered the FPVs to Crimea, presumably also acting as their signal extender, allowing them to then take off to find and destroy the shore-based Tor unit.
That said, Russia has momentarily jumped far ahead in the drone race, with announcements claiming that the fiber-optic ‘Vandal’ drones are set to be mass-produced in five separate factories:
A network of assembly plants for Prince Vandal Novgorodsky drones is being created in Russia
The facilities will be located in the European part of the country and in the area of the special military operation. The laboratories there will receive assembly kits for manufacturing drones for a specific combat mission.
The FPV kamikaze drones, controlled via fiber-optic cable, developed in Novgorod by the Ushkuynik center are resistant to electronic warfare. They began to arrive to the Russian military in August 2024. The devices can be used at any time of the day thanks to the equipment of a camera with a thermal imager.
Now Russia continues pushing ahead, recently showing the latest natively produced AI-powered FPVs being rolled out en masse:
Despite all that, on the ground Russian forces continue plowing along to the eternal chagrin of Western commentators:
As hinted at by Roepcke above, Russian forces have now cut one of the major arteries to Pokrovsk, with the battle for the city proper set to begin soon:
Ukrainian experts write their forecasts for how the assault will take shape:
How is the enemy going to capture Pokrovsk and Mirnograd?
The text will be my personal vision of the operation, in several parts. Taking into account how the enemy sees its conduct.
I will note right away that no information that could harm the Defense Forces will be published.
The diagram shows the enemy's vision.
1. It is obvious that first they will try to cut all the main routes connecting Pokrovsk with the Dnieper region.
There are two of them - to Mezhova and Pavlograd.
The first has already been lost in the Kotlyny-Udachny area. The enemy must capture both villages to stabilize the wedge.
And no matter how simple it looks on the diagram - in reality, this requires the allocation of resources comparable to an entire combined-arms army.
Next - they will need to capture Hryshyne (Grishina). A large village, divided by a river and heights. Resources are needed no less.
In the next part we will look at all the other aspects of the operation. It will be tomorrow.
👆👉 Ukrainian Post
Toretsk has now been essentially entirely captured to ever more wails:
The above is already out of date by a couple days, here’s the new map:
But the big one has been Velyka Novosilka, where Russian forces have effected almost an entire encirclement, as well as begun to push into the town itself from the southwest.
Suriyak writes:
Ukrainian Army can no longer hold Velyka Novosilka for much longer. During the last days Russian Army completely developed the operational encirclement around the largest locality in the west of Donetsk oblast. Similar to what happened in Selydovo the Russians begin to assault the town from an axis forcing the retreat of the remaining troops to the fields and forest lines which are the last escape routes while drones and artillery are chasing them. The gates to Dnipropetrovsk oblast are already open on this front.
Wider view:
That can’t possibly hold out for much longer.
In the ever-ping-ponging expectations of Trump’s approach to ‘ending the war’ we have the latest which again claims that Trump’s team plans to play hardball with Russia by putting the sanctions squeeze on Putin to get him to the table—according to ‘anonymous insider sources’ as usual:
Trump's team is developing a massive sanctions strategy to force a deal between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months
▪️At the same time, the United States intends to put pressure on Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
▪️Two main approaches are considered:
➖a set of policy recommendations - if the future administration believes that a resolution to the war in Ukraine is in sight - "includes some good-faith measures in favor of sanctioned Russian oil producers that could help broker a peace deal." That is, easing sanctions against Russia,
➖new sanctions and increased pressure if it becomes clear that Russia refuses to end the war.
▪️For now, these plans of the Trump team are in the early stages and, ultimately, depend on the president-elect himself.
➖"Trump's advisers will ultimately wrestle with the same question as the Biden administration - how to avoid major supply and price disruptions in the oil market at a time when Washington has imposed sweeping sanctions on the world's three largest producers. Another challenge: calibrating the right balance between using the tools of economic warfare and the desire to preserve the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency," Bloomberg comments.
RVvoenkor
Well, this is why Russia is now signing various comprehensive deals with friendly states, sanctions-proofing itself for this very possibility. Russia has been the most sanctioned country on earth for several years running now and a few more from Trump certainly would not bring Putin ‘to his knees’ and suddenly cause him to cry uncle on Ukraine.
Ex-Aidar deputy commander Ihor Mosiychuk gives his perspective on how these ‘negotiations’ will go:
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As a last note, Zelensky made a very interesting statement in regard to a question we’ve been delving into here for a long time—that of Ukraine’s mystified manpower numbers. First for context, recall that recently Rada MP Goncharenko wondered where the “million-man” army had went, and why there is a supposed ‘troop disparity’ with Russian forces when Russia is said to only have 700k men according to Syrsky himself.
Here Zelensky mind-bogglingly states that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in fact have 880,000 men and Russia a mere ~600,000. What a relief! It turns out the AFU vastly outnumbers Russian forces after all.
But what he says next is truly mystifying. You see, despite having less troops, Russia is able to somehow concentrate those troops in greater numbers at certain key frontlines, giving the mere appearance of an advantage. So that finally explains things!
Of course, the natural follow-up is never answered: How is it possible the country with the larger active and deployed force is not able to concentrate that force in greater quantity than the comparatively less numerous opponent? Logic, it would seem, is in shortfall.
Another recent explanation, however, has piqued my interest—according to Rezident channel Ukraine has 100,000 TCC mobilization officers, with an additional 300,000 “security services” spread throughout the country, guarding borders and doing other rear work. One can see a disparity issue here: Russia does not need such numbers of rear workers because Russia does not rely on forced mobilization but on volunteers which show up daily to recruitment centers. Similarly, Russia is not in dire threat of invasion along a large portion of its borders, unlike Ukraine.
Thus, we can see that a much larger portion of Ukraine’s actively counted total troop force is used for rear non-combat roles. So even if the two armies’ numbers were roughly equivalent, Ukraine would be at a disadvantage, having to use much more of its frontline-capable troops in these capacities. Meanwhile, Russia already has a separate line of conscripts not allowed in the SMO, but which fulfill all the rear-guard duties without being a drain on active combat troop potential.
If Ukraine has 800k+ total troops, but if ~400k of them are forced to do rear non-combat, non-support work like mobilization and border patrol, then that leaves only 400k+ for active frontline combat. Meanwhile, Russia may have the 600-700k Zelensky claims, yet most of them are available for either combat roles, or at least non-combat support roles—i.e. those which directly support the combat roles, rather than being in a totally unrelated class like TCC mobilizers; these are roles like drivers, technicians, logistics, intelligence analysts, cooks, etc.
In short: due to Ukraine’s morale and mobilization problems, Ukraine is forced to expend a disproportionate amount of its manpower on roles that do not directly affect combat efficiency. This is just another way of looking at the force disparities, thanks to Zelensky’s insightful nuggets.
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Marco Rubio sums it up: Ukraine’s problem isn’t that it’s running out of money, it’s that it’s running out of Ukrainians:
Of course, he goes on to speciously claim that Russia “will have to make concessions” in the negotiations. The whole world besides the rotten US oligarchy knows Russia needs to do no such thing. It’s the height of fallacy to literally claim in one sentence that Ukraine is running out of Ukrainians, then in the next that Russia will have to make concessions—that makes no sense at all. No, all Russia has to do is fulfill Rubio’s own prophetic quip by continuing the grind until Ukraine is “out of Ukrainians”—voila, game over.
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In fact, one of the biggest ongoing scandals in Ukraine continues to revolve around the forced mobilization of airforce pilots and technicians to frontline combat and assault squads. It has picked up steam with the whole country now sounding off.
Firstly, controversial Rada MP Maryana Bezugla aired it out:
Then the official AFU General Staff account actually confirmed it:
Another Ukrainian officer corroborates, warning of the deleterious cascading effect this will have on Ukraine’s air defenses and everything else:
And another from an aviation officer himself:
Contradicting the general staff’s claims that only “some” technicians are being sent to the front, the above aviation officer says almost all of them from his unit are being press-ganged to the front.
I said before, Russia has done this also to an extent—but, it was clarified by at least one person in the know that Russia only sent what were essentially “surplus” or redundant units which were not needed in their air wings—since the Russian airforce is vastly larger than the Ukrainian one, and thus logically has far more ‘idle’ and ‘extraneous’ units. How true this explanation is, we can’t say for absolute certain. But we can say there’s no such level of national outcry and panic over the dire issue as seen in Ukraine above.
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"British troops can lead Ukraine..." to pardon, where LOL? The same British troops that were fixing their submarine with superglue and shopped for the Admiral on LinkedIn?
My completely unwarranted predictions: 1)Trump will pull the plug on Ukraine ASAP and blame it on Biden, Zelensky and the Europeans. No super sanctions. 2) There will be no war with Iran. Iran, Russia and China do not want war and Iran's power has already has been sufficiently demonstrated. The Pentagon knows Iran's capabilities and will brief Trump. Trump will restrain Israel vis-a-vis Iran. 3) Trump will throw Europe under the bus and negotiate a security architecture with Russia to focus on China and the Western hemisphere.