SITREP 11/2/24: Another Big Tone Change as West Now Fears Ukraine's Doom
Russian forces continue advancing along the southeastern front as Western headlines descend into ever-more-hopeless pleas. Moon of Alabama covered this angle well today, showcasing the NY Times’ gradual descent in pessimism in particular.
The epitomizing article that’s been making the rounds happens to be this one, and it provides many revealing new details:
First of all, recall last time I had mentioned how the Western press is finally beginning to call a spade by its name; they’ve been loosening restrictions on previous propaganda diktats from above, such has the situation deteriorated. So this NYT article opens with the following declarative shocker:
American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.
For months they tried desperately to sell the situation as a “stalemate” despite all obvious signs pointing to Russia gaining strength with Kiev merely conjuring the appearance of empty action by launching futile, showy assaults in places like Khrynki or Kursk. Now the reality has finally hit home and hard—for the first time officials are uttering the truth as it is.
Of course, they still couch it with the ridiculous lie that Ukraine has now lost “only” 57,000 troops while Russia’s losses “double that.”
Another major admission which demonstrates the quality of US official statements and assessments:
U.S. government analysts concluded this summer that Russia was unlikely to make significant gains in Ukraine in the coming months, as its poorly trained forces struggled to break through Ukrainian defenses. But that assessment proved wrong.
The most ironic part of that is in the adjacent paragraph they again state that Russian forces could be depleted by summer 2025, at which point Kiev could ‘capitalize’ on that. Who are they kidding? They just admitted their assessments are useless. That’s not to mention that just a few paragraphs later they contradict themselves with this viral bombshell:
You should know the standard formula by now: season in a few lies to soften the blow, then unleash the difficult to swallow truth in the following paragraphs. It is interesting though, isn’t it, how everyone continues to predict the war’s end by spring-summer of 2025, and here the Pentagon admits that Ukraine may run out of troops precisely by that time, which would initiate what we can only assume is a complete collapse.
At the same time they admit that despite claims of high losses, Russia continues to recruit adequate numbers:
Other Western diplomats dispute that the development is a sign of desperation and say it is a move meant to scare the West. Whatever the motivation, U.S. officials acknowledge that Russia is finding more troops and continues to sign up 25,000 to 30,000 new contracted recruits per month.
“Hero of Ukraine” Major General Marchenko confirms most of the above in two new videos where he says there are shortages of everything, from troops to ammunition, and that brigades are extremely exhausted:
The Economist joins in the newly unrestrained reporting tenor, giving free admission that Ukraine is no longer fighting to “win” any imaginary victories, but at this point, for sheer survival:
Their opening paragraph stencils over NYT’s exact earlier sentiment:
“AFTER 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months.
The article claims Russia too has problems and if a large breakthrough was created soon, they would not be able to ‘exploit it’:
“If they achieved a breakthrough they could not exploit it.” There is little short-term risk of Russian troops streaming west to Dnipro or Odessa.
Note the qualifier “short-term”—so they admit that on a slightly longer time-scale, Odessa is already in danger?
The article’s main thesis echoes what’s now a common refrain across the pro-Ukrainian landscape:
Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first.
Ukrainian officer Tatarigami said no less himself just earlier today when he wrote:
Some may recall this was my own common calling card since last year. I repeatedly wrote that Russia is suffering huge problems in this war, but they simply pale in comparison to those of Ukraine and the West—and in a race to the bottom, it is Ukraine that will unquestionably win.
The Economist article ends with:
The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.
As a final major source joining in on this new bent of accepting reality, we have the latest article from Mykola Bielieskov, whom some of you may know as a senior analyst that appears on Phillips O’Brien’s podcast and has worked in a variety of NGOs and think-tanks, including under the Ukrainian President’s Office and RUSI. I’ve listened to the O’Brien podcast just to hear Bielieskov talk because he is exceptionally knowledgeable and adept at analysis, remaining fairly grounded compared to many other more ‘famous’ analysts, while still being compelled to inflate Ukraine’s hopes. However, it seems even he has finally come around:
Writing for the Atlantic Council, he underscores the same thesis at discussion here:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is often depicted in the Western media as a bloody stalemate with neither side able to achieve a decisive military breakthrough. While this has been the case for much of the war, there are growing indications that Russia may now be creating the conditions for victory in Ukraine.
The article ends with:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now at a critical juncture. Unless steps are taken in the coming few months to reverse today’s negative dynamics, Russia’s advantages will continue to grow until the military situation reaches the point of no return.
Much will depend on the outcome of the United States presidential election on November 5. Whoever wins the race for the White House, they will inherit a war in Ukraine that requires their urgent attention to prevent a Russian victory that would signal the decline of the West and transform the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.
Well, I think that’s pretty self-explanatory. In short, the West’s top analysts now understand the severity of the situation. For a variety of converging reasons, Ukraine seems to have 6-12 months left of fighting at this pace, with this level of “support” from the West.
And what may come next could really speed up the downfall, and get those dominoes tipping.
For the past few reports I’ve made continued mention about rumors of a large-scale Russian offensive building up on the southern Zaporozhye line. The flow of whispers about this has become so large as to be impossible to ignore at this point.
Last time it was Budanov himself who said Russia may gun for Zaporozhye city, now we have an unverified report from ‘German intelligence’:
"Russian Armed Forces are preparing for a major offensive in the Zaporizhia region," German intelligence says
According to the source, Russian military units have already completed training at one of the training grounds. The offensive will involve a lot of equipment, including infantry fighting vehicles and tanks. "This is due to the terrain, along which Russian servicemen plan to advance quickly." It is reported that the main attack could be made in the coming weeks.
The thing is, this report is actually corroborated by the sighting of ongoing fortifications being built near Dnipro and Pavlograd:
The predictions of various experts regarding the advance of the Russian Armed Forces towards Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk indirectly confirm the data on the intensification of engineering work on fortification around these cities.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces suddenly started digging where nothing had ever been erected or built. For example, in the village of Peschanoe, 10 km from Dnepropetrovsk towards Pavlodar. That is, Pavlodar itself was unlucky.
The above write up misspells a couple places, but this video appears to correct it. The fortifications are being built near “Pischenka”
In that particular case, it would seem the fortifications are not to withstand an offensive from the south, but rather one from the east in Pavlograd. And there have been rumors that Russia’s offensive will be multi-pronged with one major fork going toward Pavlograd from the Pokrovsk and Ugledar direction, while perhaps the western-most flank near Energodar will try to advance north to Zaporozhye city.
Here’s Rezident UA channel, which, despite many people considering a mostly propaganda channel, has actually been proven accurate more times than not:
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider
MI-6 passed on new intelligence to the OP and the General Staff that the Kremlin is preparing a main offensive in Donbass with the onset of cold weather, for this purpose 8 new brigades have been formed and armed. The operation will begin after the capture of Pokrovsk, the front will be divided into two parts, the main attack on Pavlograd and a flank attack on Slavyansk/Kramatorsk. British intelligence recommends that Zelensky withdraw troops from the Kursk region and concentrate on the defense of Pokrovsk, which is the key to these plans.
Rezident
If the above is true, here’s how I see it playing out.
Firstly, here’s the Pokrovsk front now. I found it humorous that one of the earlier articles said, as if in consolation, that “Russia has not been able to capture Pokrovsk yet.”
Correction: Russia has not even attempted to capture Pokrovsk yet, and will likely not do so until they have fully flattened out the front like so:
The red arrows represent where the captured areas should come up to before Pokrovsk is slowly enveloped, so that the salient is not too overstretched. For that front to flatten out you will notice that Kurakhove will have to be captured—this is currently in progress as we speak.
Russian forces have already begun storming Kurakhove from its eastern suburbs, but the fortress town is a very tricky one as it’s protected by a reservoir on the north side and wide open fields with little cover to the south.
However, Russians are advancing quickly from the south. Recall last time they had just begun to capture Yasna Polyana, and as can be seen, are already north of there, and have captured a large portion to its east, including Maskymovka:
A pro-UA mapper notes:
Russian FABs are beginning to hit Rozlyv, west of Kurakhove, in preparation for ground assaults on the village. Roslyv lies just south of the main highway leading into Kurakhove, and its fall would lead to severe logistical problems for the Ukrainian garrison in the city.
Note the road running west of Kurakhove as the final main supply route, which runs through Dachne on the map. If Russians can reach that road, Kurakhove should be effectively blockaded. Then once that entire empty area to the southeast falls, the front should be more or less consolidated and we will be one step closer to the final showdown on Pokrovsk.
Here are the main supply routes of the region:
The main line runs straight from Pokrovsk to Pavlograd, and Russian forces could attempt to follow that directly, using it as their own backbone.
It may seem like a long way to Pavlograd, but Ukrainian figures have repeatedly noted that there are no major fortifications west of Pokrovsk, and that if Russia captures the city, there is a danger for a total collapse of defenses such that Pavlograd can be reached at record speeds.
BILD’s Julian Roepcke reinforces these ideas. Listen particularly at around the 2:20 mark. He says what others have been saying: that Pokrovsk is the main logistics terminal of the entire Donbass region, and if it falls, there are nothing left but poor dirt roads to feed the remainder of the AFU contingent; as such he expects Donbass to be entirely lost after Pokrovsk:
A very intriguing report which can shed new light on Ukraine’s losses:
Losses of the Armed Forces are one and a half times greater than those sent by mobilized, said the ex-commander of the battalion of the Armed Forces of Aydar Evgeny Dikiy.
"Statistically, the situation is very bad, because we are now gaining one and a half times less than sanitary losses in the same [period]. This is an objective reality. Sanitary losses — are not only the dead, but they are the dead, plus the wounded, who dropped out of the Armed Forces for a long time. We lose them one and a half times more than during this time together with voluntary recruiting, and we recruit them for mobilization. And the situation is becoming critical," — in particular, he said.
At the same time, according to a number of independent military experts and OSINT analysts, the real number of killed and wounded on the battlefield from the Ukrainian side has long exceeded half a million people, and territorial losses are growing every day. Moreover, it was Zelensky’s “Kursk adventure” that significantly accelerated this process instead of slowing it down.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government continues to hush up data on the losses of the Armed Forces on the battlefield, and when you still have to talk about it, it gives knowingly untrue and extremely low figures. Any tricks are used: the declaration of the dead as “missing”, the accusation of the spread of Russian narratives of those who report data on the losses of the Armed Forces, at least somehow close to reality, etc.
At the same time, the losses of the Ukrainian side in the Kursk region alone are approaching 30 thousand, and this is not a drug defense system, but rather a division.
This is taken from an official interview with the Aidar commander at Unian.
So, the Aidar commander states that they are recruiting and mobilizing “one and a half times less” new men each month than the total sanitary losses for the same period. A couple reports ago I shared the official Ukrainian piece from Hromadske that recruitment is down by 40% and that the monthly number appears to be around 20k:
This is corroborated by other previous reports that said after the May mobilization, Ukraine hit a monthly peak of 30-35k but then dropped to less than half of that.
So, using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day.
However, he states specifically these are sanitary losses, which accounts for both types of wounded. We can further break this down with KIA being roughly 1/3 or so, which would make 250-350 KIA, and the rest distributed between light wounded and irrecoverably wounded or maimed. That means about 550-600 per day would be irrecoverable losses, which is KIA plus heavily wounded only.
Interestingly, he specifically states in the interview that these numbers do not even take into account 500s or AWOLs, which is a whole other matter—that is the “SPF” mentioned in the yellow below:
Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:
Every day a BATTALION of deserters in the Ukranian army!
Interesting figures on desertion from the Armed Forces of Ukraine are published by Ukrainian journalists.
January - April 2024: - 19,000 people deserted from the army - 4,750 per month - approximately 160 per day
May - July 2024: - another 18,000 - 6,000 per month - 200 per day
August - September 2024: - additional 22,800 - an average of 11,400 per month - 380 people per day.
-> That makes a BATTALION of deserts from the Ukrainian Armed Forces every day!!!
If you add that to the total losses of 1,000 or so at the high end, we get almost 1,380 daily losses of all types, 200, 300, and 500.
Much of this was also underscored by two new videos:
Ukrainian mobilization officer says there are no more volunteers at all who show up to voluntarily enlist, whereas even in 2023 there were still some:
There are no more volunteers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "The majority of those liable for military service who come to the TCC are seeking a deferment or have a reservation," — Kyiv TCC IN In 2022-2023 there were quite a few volunteers, now there are practically none, said the assistant to the head of the Kyiv TCC and SP Titkarenko.
The other is Ukrainian General Krivonos who states that only 10 out of 100 mobilized people even reach the frontline (1:30 of video below):
Out of 100 mobilized Ukrainians, on average, no more than 10 people reach the front due to desertion and terrible training, said the former deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and former deputy head of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, Major General Serhiy Krivonos.
From one of Ukraine’s top channels—note the audience reaction emojis underneath:
In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?
Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.
However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most. Some sources state the decision is already mostly made and that Zelensky and his team are just waiting for the US elections to finish up so that the decision to lower mobilization can be blamed on the new US administration “abandoning Ukraine” and forcing it to make such “difficult decisions”. Also, Zelensky will likely want to give the new admin a chance, to see if they can spring some miracle aid rather than leave him to his fate.
Rezident channel reports:
"Resident:
Our source in Zelensky's administration said that Zelensky will not negotiate and is ready to retreat to the Dnieper. The format of a general mobilization of men and women, which should resolve the issue with reserves, was already discussed at headquarters.
Any negotiations with the Kremlin on Putin's terms would mean capitulation personally for Zelensky, who refused to sign Istanbul-1 and disrupted the Istanbul-2 agreements.
And:
#Inside
Our source in the OP said that Andrei Ermak wants to play the Dnieperpetrovsky Gambit with Russia, which is why they are now easily renting out territories in the Donbass, and the Armed Forces are leaving their positions without a fight. At Bankova, we are confident that Russia's progress towards the Dnieper will force the West to allocate financing and new weapons, as well as send military contingents. For Zelensky, now the main thing is to draw NATO into direct conflict, which is why the Armed Forces began the operation in the Kursk region.
Last items:
Multiple sources report that Russia and Ukraine are in some sort of ‘secret negotiations’ to limit attacks on each other’s energy grids once again.
There is FT:
And German Zeit:
Ukraine and Russia are holding private talks to determine possible concessions, - Die Zeit
▪️German propagandists write that Kyiv and Moscow are allegedly holding confidential talks to discuss possible concessions, including mutual deterrence from attacks on energy infrastructure, prisoner exchanges, the return of children, and a grain deal. These talks are taking place at the level of political advisers and concern issues such as the fate of Crimea and the willingness of the parties to compromise.
▪️The publication notes that the negotiations were held in Copenhagen, Kyiv, Davos, Jeddah and other places with the participation of the G7 countries and China.
▪️Journalists believe that the question is no longer whether peace talks will take place, but when and how.
All we can say for now is that for the record, Russia has already dismissed this as fake propaganda.
Peskov called the Financial Times publication, which states that Russia and Ukraine have begun negotiations to stop mutual strikes on energy facilities, a fake.
"There are a lot of fake news now that have nothing to do with reality. Even the most reputable publications do not shy away from such fake news." -Peskov
—
UN Rep Nebenzya again reiterated that Russia will not compromise in any negotiations, and all previous demands must be fulfilled: demilitarization, deNazification, etc., etc. He also states that with each day that passes, Ukraine will have to give up more territory to Russia in any future negotiations:
Lavrov later echoed this:
The longer Kiev breaks one agreement after another, the less territory this regime has left – Lavrov
—
Lavrov also met with the North Korean Foreign Ministry, which had some very encouraging words for the Russian operation:
🇰🇵🤝🇷🇺 DPRK will help the Russian army and people in their holy war - North Korean Foreign Minister
▪️The DPRK has no doubt that the Russian army will achieve victory, Pyongyang will firmly stand next to its Russian comrades.
▪️The head of the DPRK Foreign Ministry, who is on a visit to Moscow, stated that Kim Jong-un had instructed the Russian army to help it from the very beginning of the North Korean War.
➖"From the very beginning of the special military operation, the respected comrade Chairman of State Affairs Kim Jong-un gave instructions that we, without looking back at anyone, should unwaveringly and powerfully support and provide assistance to the Russian army and the Russian people in their holy war," said Choi Song-hui, adding that the relations between the two countries are reaching the level of "invincible combat comradeship."
▪️Sergey Lavrov, in turn, announced that relations had reached an unprecedented new level.
RVvoenkor
—
On the topic of North Koreans, Biden has now stated that Ukraine will only be given permission to “fire on the North Koreans” if they cross over into Ukraine. Well, obviously—I don’t think they need special permission for that. But the underlying message appears to be that the presence of defensive DPRK troops in Kursk will not cause the US to give Ukraine special permissions to fire into Russia or onto the DPRK troops themselves, which is another in a long line of setbacks for Zelensky:
Zelensky also claims that Russia has already officially informed Western states that North Korean troops are there and will take part in combat. That may be the case, but as stated it would likely be defensive only in Kursk as per the strategic mutual defense pact signed between Russia and Korea.
For his part Nebenzya says it’s none of anyone’s business what Russia does with North Korean troops. He asks the obvious question: what gives US the right to help Ukraine, but Russia’s allies are not allowed to help Russia?
Nebenzya — about North Korean troops: I want to ask one very simple question: even if we imagine that everything our Western colleagues claim about military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK suddenly turned out to be true, why are the US and its allies trying to impose on the whole world the rotten logic that they have the right to help the Zelensky regime, mobilizing for this purpose the entire military and intelligence potential of NATO, while Russia's allies do not have the right to do this? Where, ladies and gentlemen, do you get this neocolonial sense of your own exceptionalism and impunity and the unfounded belief that what you can do, others cannot?
—
A new BBC article makes this hilariously ironic and dilatory admission:
—
As another example of Ukrainian troop woes, Rada MP Mariana Bezuglaya gives further updates as to how Ukrainian air defenses have been degraded due to Syrsky mobilizing the technicians into frontline combat units:
The Russian side has been doing this to airforce crews for some time as well, however, as per FighterBomber. But the difference is, Russia has a lot more “fat” in its Airforce, Navy, etc., which can be trimmed due to those branches’ more limited participation in the war owing to their relative size.
Russian Geran usage update:
The alleged high interception rate makes no difference, half the reason Russia even uses these drones is to merely deplete Western AD ammo, which costs far more than the drone itself.
Of course, that’s when they can even hit it—footage from Kiev earlier today:
—
New reports and photos claim Russia has finally been actively building hardened aircraft shelters as well as blast barriers at various airfields around Ukraine:
—
Several of the articles quoted at the opening of this report have published the ‘alarmingly’ accelerating territorial capture rates Russia is now enjoying:
—
Lastly, a Russian commander shows how Selidovo was captured with new movement tactics:
During the liberation of Selidovo, the stormtroopers used the tactic of “multiple cuts”.
"We were everywhere. They didn't understand where we were. There was a report that the Russians had surrounded us. There, there, there - and now there was shooting from behind," Andrei Chuvashov, commander of the assault battalion of the 433rd regiment, explained to Zvezda war correspondent Anastasia Avsyuk.
The enemy was expecting an attack from the south, but the Russian military struck from the north and also went around the flank from the east. As a result, the settlement was taken in pincers, and the Ukrainian militants began to panic.
And by the way, when they captured Selidovo, Russian forces of the Samara-based 30th Brigade sent a creative message indicating the future capture of Kiev:
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Puzzled by your numbers: "then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 37.5k and 50k monthly losses".
Wouldn't those products be 22.5k and 30k? Or do you mean those are the net losses? Please explain.
Those in the know have now realized the truth:
Ukraine is toast and they've wasted their youth!
Long in the making and amply foretold;
The Russians gave warning before the tanks rolled.
So pity poor Ukraine; so callously used,
As a blunt NATO weapon - conned and abused.