SITREP 11/16/25: Overblown Energy Strikes on Russia Again Mask UA Frontline Collapse
A note on the Russian energy attacks by Ukraine. There has been an interesting confluence of new reports that contradict the narrative of how badly Russia is suffering from these Ukrainian strikes.
It comes coincidentally a mere day after Ukraine launched a “large-scale” attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which had allegedly crippled some large percentage of Russian energy exports. Now, today brings news from Ukrainian accounts that Russian ships have already been seen loading product at the very port said to have been ‘crippled’ a day earlier:
From Reuters:
I’ve often harped on the fact that pro-Ukrainian voices use months-old strikes as ‘proof’ of the damage Russia is taking, while completely ignoring how fast the damage from those attacks is often repaired—not to mention that sometimes there’s hardly any damage to begin with, and the impact of the strikes is vastly overstated from the get-go.
Now Bloomberg has hilariously reported that attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure are party to the rising cost of gas in the US and elsewhere:
EU and US sanctions against Russia and ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries have led to rising fuel prices in the United States — Bloomberg 😂
▪️Diesel prices have increased by 3%, gasoline remains at the level of the beginning of the year, despite a 20% drop in global oil prices. This is “unlikely to please the US administration,” for whom affordable energy is a key element of the economic program.
▪️The price increase is linked to reduced refining: attacks on Russian infrastructure, disruptions at plants in Asia and Africa, as well as refinery closures in Europe and the US have removed millions of barrels of fuel from the market.
▪️Additional pressure comes from sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, as well as the EU ban on petroleum product imports coming into effect in January 2026.
This Ukrainian outlet even reported that Russian oil refining only declined “slightly” from recent attacks, dropping a mere 3%
According to independent industry sources, Russia’s oil refining this year fell by only about 3% despite large-scale drone attacks, as refineries used spare capacity to offset the blows.
That’s not to mention the fact that Russia’s refining capacity primarily serves its own domestic market and not its crude exports to the world; about 70% of refined products are for the domestic market and therefore do not even affect Russian “oil revenues” as many in the West claim.
This article corroborates the above, noting that Russia was able to activate “idle capacity” at other plants to make up for the ones taken offline given that Russia has a vast surplus of available refining capacity, such that it keeps some of it dormant for precisely such rainy days.
Yet despite the barrage, aimed at stifling Moscow’s main financial lifeline to fund its war in Ukraine, Russia’s total oil processing output has fallen by only 3% this year, as the country activates idle capacity at other plants.
Lastly, Financial Times reports that Russia’s Gazprom is fully moving ahead with its major Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China that will entirely replace the lost exports to Europe:
For comparison, the Power of Siberia 2 will ship 50+ billion cubic meters of gas to China annually, which is roughly the estimate of what Russia exported to Europe in the past two years; at its peak many years ago, Russia exported over 150 billion cubic meters.
Now onto some battlefield updates.
The coming disaster is really beginning to dawn on many pro-Ukrainian figures for the first time in a truly visceral fashion. Ukrainian political aspirant and ex-Right Sector Odessa-branch leader Serhii Sternenko published the following much-discussed urgent plea:
This was followed up by Julian Roepcke’s own similar-minded appeal which even evoked the exact same token of ‘strategic defeat’:
His ignorance to the fate of the “17,000 mobilized” men in Ukraine is quite humorous to witness; maybe he should go to the front and check under the autumn leaves.
In the meantime, a Ukrainian soldier of the 35th Brigade—which presently operates on the collapsing Novopavlovka front—has reportedly written this evocative plea that, in the context, should also be read:
👉A Ukrainian soldier from the 35th Marine Brigade:
The brigade will be withdrawn; the losses are terrible. I hope others are not facing the same. We are holding the defence.
All losses come from FPVs and KAB (Fab bombs) strikes; no one has seen the enemy face-to-face. Sometimes snipers work, but that is rare. You come to war and get burned by an FPV or torn apart by a KAB; who you were actually fighting — no one knows. This is how it is everywhere now, and this is how it will always be.
Here, the one who survives is the one who digs deeper and doesn’t stick his head out unnecessarily. I always tell newcomers to stay deep in the ground and not test their luck.
But the irony is that the longer you fight, the more willingly you stay underground, and the less you’ve fought, the more often you stick your head out, whether you need to or not. That’s why only the old hands survive.
Many are afraid they might get buried underground, but that’s only likely if a KAB lands close or heavy artillery hits. The chances are low. More likely, a drone will fly in and tear your skull or chest apart with its payload.
Another fear is when the groin artery is ripped — the chances of survival are small, but at least it isn’t very painful. The wounded sit in a “thinker’s pose” and wait for death; it comes to everyone sooner or later.
Some people came and said not to spread information about the situation in the brigade. Good thing no one knows I run this channel. They’ll be surprised — without truth, there will be no victory, remember that.
And even if they find out, how will they punish me? Send me to the war? Hahaha.
All eyes are now focused on the Zaporozhye direction, which is simply collapsing faster than anything in the war previously. Many pro-Ukrainian accounts are in veritable panic:
—
On the front, Russian forces again continued steamrolling west in the Gulyaipole direction after capturing both Rivnopillya and Yablukove:
The taking of Rivnopillya by Russia’s 114th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern forces:
Not far to the west of that, Russia has made a surprise breakthrough in the Orekhove direction, capturing most of Mala Tokmachka, from whence Ukraine’s ill-fated 2023 counter-offensive had once begun:
The biggest surprise continues to be in the Novopavlovka direction, where Russian forces apparently used heavy fog cover to make mechanized drops of troops throughout the town, penetrating even further north and capturing the majority of it:
Details of the breakthrough have appeared in Novopavlovka, where our troops have already reached the northernmost part of the village, which is very large.
Under the cover of fog, a crossing was established between Yalta and Dachnoye. Subsequently, 10 pieces of armored vehicles were transported, and a large landing force entered the village, spreading out among the houses. Three more landing force groups arrived on BMPs. The attack was successful.
The fighting on the outskirts of Novopavlovka has been going on for 3 months, but our troops have never dreamed of landing such a large force.
Ukrainian military channels were shocked at this advancement:
For context, here’s what the fog there looks like from a Mavic spotter drone, just to give you an idea why troops are able to conduct something approximating maneuver warfare when the weather permits:
In Pokrovsk, it’s being reported by some sources that virtually everything in the southern part of the boiler is captured and being swept:
Reports indicate that most Ukrainian troops in the pocket have now retreated to the north part of Mirnograd and are hiding in basements and other building positions.
A few last disparate items:
Russia is now developing a new UMPK glide bomb with an astounding 400km range that surpasses anything available in the world:
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is developing FABs with UMPK that can fly up to 400 km. This will allow for significant savings on missiles, each of which is more expensive than a new tank. The 400 km range can only be achieved with the use of jet boosters, which is the focus of current research. The current D-30SN UMPK FABs can hit targets at a distance of 120-130 km. If new FABs are dropped over the Kursk region, they will be able to reach Kiev, Kremenchug, and Krivoy Rog without any problems. 100-200 pieces per day?
There have already been new photos of a Russian UMPK with what appears to be rocket boosters attached to increase range considerably:
The first photos of the new version of the Russian high-explosive aerial bomb with a rocket booster integrated into the planning and correction module have appeared. It is reported that with the help of the rocket booster, Russia has gained the ability to strike targets at a distance of about 200 km. Compared to the first versions of the UMPK, the new set differs not only by the booster but also by the mounting system, in the central part of the body of which, apparently, new sensors of the interference-protected satellite system “Kometa” are integrated.
That’s not to mention videos have emerged of, apparently, a failed one that crashed in Ukraine somewhere:
—
Lastly, a famous American mercenary medic in Ukraine tells us what we’ve long known:
This is the future of war – and the West isn’t ready for what may be coming in an open conflict with Russia: mass casualties and a transformation of the battle beyond anything that Nato’s armies are training for.
The laptop feed is for Rebekah Maciorowski, an American volunteer paramedic who runs the medical operations, evacuation and training for an entire battalion of men and women on Ukraine’s eastern front, under its 3rd Brigade. In a conventional war, she would be a major. In this conflict? She has no idea what her rank is and cares even less.
More:
But her team takes heavy losses. Over the last week, a top medic, callsign Viking, was killed on a rescue mission east of Slaviansk. A few weeks before that, another driver was blown up by a drone.
“I don’t see other Europeans coping with this,” she says.
Something we’ve long been talking about here:
Nato doctrine focuses on what it calls “combined arms manoeuvre”. This means an emphasis on the concentration of aircraft, armour, infantry and artillery with the aim to surprise and overwhelm an enemy.
That doesn’t work any more.
Another important point:
Nato’s method is to take on mass attacks by the “near peer” forces of Russia. But Russia’s tactics no longer concentrate on mass – the weight of numbers in men and arms used against Ukraine three years ago.
Well, it seems the smart-alecks are finally wising up.
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
The addition of a small propulsion unit is an obvious upgrade to the glide bombs. I have been expecting to see this for months now.
I can't imagine the terror that these weapons induce. Russia has thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks). NATO has no defence against this very few comparable weapons.
Negotiations now! End the war. Save millions of lives.
I used to work in Kazakhstan in the oil refinery known as Tengiz located on the shore of the Caspian Sea. It was/still is a joint venture primarily between Chevron and the government of Kazakhstan (there are other western partners too) which was signed in the early 1990’s for forty years. All of its production goes through a large pipeline from the site in a Kazakhstan to the port facilities in Novorossisk where it is exported to world markets. The oil is from Kazakhstan and NOT from Russia.