Russia is obviously clobbering Ukraine and will, I think, destroy it completely, but what, Simplicius, do you think would constitute victory in this SMO/war? Is it victory if Ukraine ceases to exist and the banderites slip into the woods? Is it victory if the US finds some other proxy to send drones into Russia? Is it victory if there is no cessation of deaths or threat? Or does victory require some sort of agreement that really opens the way to peace? Because I have a hard time thinking the west will ever go for such an agreement. Ukraine will cease to exist, but I'm not expecting an end to the war between NATO and Russia in my lifetime. Of course life can be unpredictable, so there's that.
I wish I thought you were right. But if it’s so obvious (and I think it is) that Ukraine is being destroyed, why aren’t THEY calling it quits? I’d guess it’s because Ukrainians aren’t making the call, the US puppetmaster is, and he’s content to let Ukraine go to hell.
There is no such thing as countries as real entities on their own, there are groups of people governing territories, and the interests of those people can be, and often indeed are, completely misaligned with the interests of the majority of people inhabiting the territories.
If this ends with Ukraine still mostly intact and Zelensky and co. retiring as near-billionaires in Miami and never having been seriously threatened either by Kinzhals on their bunkers or GRU operatives with FPVs and other means of destruction pursuing them in Miami, there will be plenty of elites elsewhere enthusiastic to volunteer for the same kind of deal.
> thinking the west will ever go for such an agreement
Who cares while the rest of the world moves on? Think about the normative force of the facts ("normative Kraft des Faktischen") — Germany may come to remember a concept of its state theorist Georg Jellinek at some point.
The rest of the world is just going to move on while drones are still landing in Russia and Israelis are still free to commit genocide? How is that different than not moving on?
Good questions. No one dares to ”discuss” or stick their heads out regarding what exactly a ”victory” is. The same goes for ”peace” - what defines a peace?
Sad truth is that we never had peace. Just ignorance, la-la-land and an illusion of ”not war”. At least in ”my neighbourhood”. The WW2 did not end. The Mauerfall in Berlin 1991 didnt bring peace to Earth. It opened up more opportunities for warfare. And it will go on forever.
”Victory” is NOT something that brings peace. Victory in Ukraine is something else than Victory for Russia. What we need is a morale defeat for the West, especially for the sneaky little brits and the brusselites. They must lose face.
So Russia need to deliver, NOT negoiate, a crushing defeat and surrender of Ukrainian Armed forces. They need to remove and punish the junta in Kiev.
And if Macron/Starmer/Metz/Tusk dares to send troops to Ukraine - attack and make them look ridiculous. That would be a Victory in Ukraine, but certainly not bring peace, or for that matter Victory for Russia.
Victory for Russia comes after Victory in Ukraine AND if US/Europe aknowledge the right for Russias existence as a sovereign state on equal terms. If Russia can negoiate a new order of ”detente” or pause in the secret warfare against each other it would be called a Victory.
Why was Russia so backwards compared to Western Europe?
A big part of it is the shitty climate which made accumulating surplus very difficult. Especially before Ukraine was recovered and the Kuban region take over. Plus it was colder back then too.
But another big part of the problem is it being situated on the wide open Eurasian plane and warfare being constant. And not just constant, but also extremely destructive -- a lot of the European wars, especially in the late Middle Ages, were quite theatrical in nature. Nothing like a Mongol invasion. And nothing like constant slave raids -- Russia had millions of its people abducted into slavery by the hostile entities that occupied the southern steppes all the way into the 19th century. Think about the effects that had.
In the 19th century borders were pushed away sufficiently for a wide region to become permanently safe and some development to begin, but then in the 20th century there was the Nazi invasion, and we know what that did.
Meanwhile in Britain there has been no real invasion in a thousand years, two civil wars, some wars with Scotland and some bombing from the Germans in WWII, but overall it has barely seen any destruction. No wonder it emerged in such a favorable position eventually. And then replaced by the US, most of which has also seen no war ever, and absolutely none since 1865.
Well, what do we have now? Modern technology has made it so that cheap drones are flying all the way to Perm. And Russia is surrounded by enemies who are attacking it from all sides. Which is at best the same situation it was in before it defeated the steppe nomads, but in many ways much worse, because now there is no real rear.
And that will destroy its development prospects if it is not stopped, the same way the country was so handicapped for much of its existence.
But the only way to stop it is the application of extreme violence that reimposes deterrence and/or physically eliminates the hostile entities on the border. Nothing else will suffice.
"AND if US/Europe acknowledge the right for Russia's existence as a sovereign state on equal terms. If Russia can negotiate a new order of ”detente” or pause in the secret warfare against each other it would be called a Victory."
FWIW: the folks I listen to all agree that Russia -may- occupy Kiev, but won't go further West to Lvov.
They give chances as 50/50 on Odessa.
Let me go out on a limb and ask why Russia wouldn't want Moldova to control the area between Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi? It is part of the Odessa oblast, but we're not playing "Risk" here.
I don't think Russia had any territorial aspirations when the SMO started at all, but the question is what it will take to restore safety to the Russian people. I think it will take much more than Putin has expressed, but we shall see.
Also FWIW, I'm not at all sure we aren't playing Risk here. I think the neocons in DC are, although the game I'd have referred to is Civilizations.
if one could rearrange the world according to his own plan, one would be the master of the universe. No one Is omnipotent. There is a limit to US/West powers.
US/West thought it could impose its will on Russia, by constriction, series of regime changes.... We all follow the ongoing story.
The essence is US/West misjudged the extent of their power, they overreached, intervened into the region where they cannot rule,
Russia is pushing them back...
Ukraine is learning that geopolitics is very cruel business, decisions have consequences.
It would not have been an easy job to guide Ukraine through geopolitical storms as a neutral country, it would have been a hard, difficult journey of creating a solid, sound, economically, politically society against all the ills of foreign intervention, meddling, extremism, corruption, hijacking the country by oligarchs...
It was easier to go for war, as it meant support for the coalition of foreign agents/extremists/corruptionist running the state was unquestioned.
But it led to war and defeat. In defeat, Bandera will lead once again, in his spirit and following his example.
The current leitmotiv is irreversibility of the defeat.
There is no going back. No one is offering Crimea for neutrality as in 2013, Donbas for neutrality as in 2021... even Crimea and 4 oblasts, plus neutrality, are questionable, now.
Defeat now is a relief for all soldiers on the front, the essence of defeat is going back in time, to the time when decisions have been made, and accepting all that has been lost as being lost forever.
I don't think the US cares about regimes. I have argued elsewhere that Ukraine and the US are fighting different wars, with overlap. Ukraine is fighting for survival for itself, the US is fighting to retain hegemony. It doesn't need Ukraine to survive in order to win. I'm not saying it can or will win, incidentally, just that Ukraine's survival is unnecessary.
Pushing back would mean everything east of Brussels exiting NATO. Which is what the official demands from December 2021 anounted to. Quietly forgotten by Russia itself since then. But there was an implicit promise to use force to make it happen if necessary. Where is that force? As NATO fires into Russia with impunity daily...
>Searching for a 38th parallel.
1) The 38th parallel was not a win for the good guys -- the Americans got what they wanted, which was a foothold on the mainland. Whether that is half of Korea or all of it doesn't really matter.
2) It was a defeat for the Koreans -- they lost half their country. Similarly, as I keep asking here every week, and nobody has ever answered meaningfully -- if Stalin had begged for peace and a freeze along the then current lines in mid-1943, would that have been a victory for the USSR or a defeat? That would have meant the Baltics, Belarus and half of Ukraine remaining with the Nazis. Kind of like what we have now -- Belarus is not in the Nazi hands, but most of Ukraine is, and the Baltics.
the terms of the peace will be very clear: Ukraine totally neutral. No EU (now that the EU transformed itself into NATO's alter-ego, switching jobs off between one another in the war-making division). No NATO. No heavily-armed offensive military force. Odessa Russian and perhaps Kiev under a special regime of government. I hope that we are entering the era in which NATO shrinks back or even dissolves and the EU collapses. The EU -- started as a collective bargaining arrangement and ended as Thought Police. Fitting epitaph.
I don't think the chances of the west agreeing to that are very good, and you couldn't win that on the battlefield. That is, you could destroy your enemies but not necessarily make them agree to those terms. Hence my believe that Russia needs to act more decisively.
Victory is the achieving of the long-stated objectives, which do not include the cessation of Ukraine as an independent nation-state - albeit one which will never recover its former geographical extent.
Not at all likely even on the terms you mention, in my opinion, and a Pyrrhic victory if it is, if things continue as they are. The US is fighting a war, and Russia is trying to conduct an SMO. I think this incompatibility harms Russia.
>long-stated objectives, which do not include the cessation of Ukraine as an independent nation-state
That is not an option Russia has any more. Or really ever had -- fundamentally there can be no such thing as a non-anti-Russia Ukraine.
If the objectives of Russian leadership do not include the end of Ukraine as an independent state and the complete and permanent de-Ukrainization of the territory, then Russian leadership has to be put on trial for grand treason and replaced by new leadership that does pursue that objective.
The Russians will likely give the Baltics a spanking just to show the NAFO goons how bigly bad their future might be if they don't do a course correction.
That certainly would be out of character for Putin. They certainly are annoying little yappers, though. Something might happen if they seize a Russian oil tanker, though.
What point? Did you really think Russia would come out unscathed from the SMO?
Putin and the Russian leadership have their heads on their shoulders and thanks to them we are not seeing an uncontrolled escalation that would lead to WWIII and possibly nukes flying both ways and vaporizing many metropolitan areas.
It should not but when you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you and don't mind seeing the destruction of others someone has to step up as the adult in the room.
>when you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you
When you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you, you destroy them first.
You certainly don't allow them to launch hundreds of light cruise missiles deep inside Russia every day, with ever heavier payloads, and not knowing when those payloads will be nuclear.
The significance of ”adults” is nile in this World. Either you have clowns and sheeps or leaders and wolwes.
If you meet a Russophobe that wants to destroy you regardless of consequences for others you certainly must kill that person instantly.
And there are no Russophobes. Phobia is a construction.
There is just Evil people trying to force another people into submission and slavery for the Globalist masters. They use propaganda and every means to achieve theirs goals. The minute they are your Master there is no ”phobia”around - they can even, with a gentle smile, invite you to clean their toilets.
Crazy like a fox, apparently, if all the adults pretend it isn't happening. But for all their talk, are they really crazy? Take some pimp like Mertz or Trump: they sacrifice their countries' well-being, but they personally make out like bandits while the adults in the room make sure they get to keep doing it. Consensus seems to be that appeasement wasn't right for Hitler; why would it be right for Trump?
It doesn't. That's what people seem to not understand. War decisions are in the hands of the military and the political advisers surrounding Putin, not Putin himself.
Last month Lukashenko said that the military went to Putin with detailed decapitation strike plans, and Putin vetoed them.
Also, do you seriously think the strict order to not fire against fired on first that was in place in the initial weeks of the SMO, and which doomed much of the war effort subsequently, came from Gerasimov and not from Putin? Please...
P.S. Note that when I rant against Putin, it is not just the man himself -- it is the collective of Putin and the oligarchic influences around him that appear to be doing a controlled demolition of Russia.
Do you really think the US would throw ogrines at Russia, risking its own demise, just to protect the unruly dwarves of Eutope? If that happened, it wouldn't be the US anymore, but a slave of the EU, maybe in the year 6098.
Restraint is not weakness. A blow struck is strength expended at the risk of greater retaliation. Russia strongly desires to confine operations to pursuing the goals of the SMO. If Russian leaders were as stupid as ours, the world we know would evaporate.
Idiots will continue to poke the bear with dry sticks, imagining themselves out of reach. The bear will stay low and slow, and focused on its immediate aims. Stupid dwarf trolls will mince and preen. It will not matter.
If they feel a real need to, the Russians will strike. But they are winning without resorting to this escalation. They can ignore the frothy mouthed Russophobes in NATO: All bark and no bite (or all fur coat and no knickers, if you prefer).
Because I have heard plenty of talk from the Russian side but zero action.
Meanwhile NATO is striking Russia with impunity.
>If they feel a real need to
There is a very real need, because Russian deterrence is completely destroyed, and can only be restored by wiping whole countries off the map.
Work through the decision tree.
Let's say Finland feels like launching drones towards Murmansk, St. Peterseburg, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, etc. It's actually not even a hypothetical, they already did it on numerous occasions. What does Russia do?
1) Pretend it didnt't happen. Which is what it did in real life, but that only opens you up for more strikes
2) Launch conventional strikes on Finland. Which will not in any way take Finland out, because Finland has been preparing for many decades for something like this and is well dug in, thus such a move will only open another interminable war of the same kind as in Ukraine, but this time it won't be Donetsk, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Saratov, etc. that are bombed daily, but St. Petersburg and the rest of the Russian northwest.
3) Wipe most of Finland off the map with nukes, move in and occupy the land, finish off the survivors.
Only the last option solves the problem.
But if Russian leadership has taken it off the table, then we are left with the first two outcomes.
Which means that anyone can launch strikes into Russia if they feel like Russia won't dare fire back and/or they have been sufficiently politically captured to be another kamikaze.
And that is the permament state from here on, until someone gets the Option #3 treatment above and nobody else dares even think about it again.
Or there are conventional strikes against the source of the problem, not the kamikaze proxies, of the kind that would make the source of the problem think twice before continuing with the current course.
you're a fucking nut. You people have nothing left of value to offer anyone, except maybe what it feels like to make gigantic, disastrous foreign policy mistakes. The world knows this.
How about you actually address the points I made rather than calling me a nut?
Let's have another example -- a lot of the drones that now fly towards the Urals come from Kazakhstan. We know that because:
1) They often appear out of nowhere, with no sightings of any drones for hours in the space between Ukraine and Orenburg/Bashkiria/Udmurtia/Perm/Chelyabinsk prior to that.
2) Even the longest-range Ukrainian drones can only get there only if the 100-kg warhead is replaced with additional fuel
3) Recently a crashed drone was found near the border inside Kazakhstan, and it was an FP-1 drone. But FP-1 drones only have a range of 200 km.
4) Even Lavrov called it out publicly back in July.
But Lavrov called it out for another reason, which he mixed up with the heavy drones -- in mid-June there was a Ukrainian DRG armed with FPVs that tried to enter from Kazakhstan and seize the Russian ICBM silo base in Orenburg. Yes, you read that right. It was almost completely hushed because of the strategic implications of it, but after that Lavrov called the Kazakhs out about drones being launched from their territory and "expressed hopes it will never repeat again". Spoiler alert -- the attacks not only continued, they expanded, as that was before any drones had reached Perm, Udmurtia and Chelyabinsk yet.
Because why not? What cost had been imposed on the Kazakhs, and what realistic threat were they under? None.
And Kazakhstan is even more dangerous for Russia than Ukraine, because all the truly strategic objects in Russia are lined up along the Kazakh border -- during Soviet times that was the deepest, most untouchable rear. Now it being that hinges on Kazakhstan remaining a friendly state. Which is no longer the case -- Kazakhstan signed a military cooperation agreement with the UK (!!!) earlier this year...
I'll address them. You have lost the war. The war was never anything but naked US/EU imperialism backing the nastiest, most vile elements available. Your diplomatic and military reputations are in tatters.
China kicked the NED out of Xinjiang. Russia saved Kazakhstan from a coup (I think it was 2 years ago). The BRI is rapidly expanding across Central Asia. HSR has made it to Tehran. The INSTC is being realized (although the US occupation of the Zangezur corridor may represent a problem for the land route). The US is going to waste billions trying to set up Rare Earth processing which is going to take a decade to reach useful levels. Venezuela is going to be Americans next Vietnam. China has alternate sources for the food it needs. Aircraft carriers are quickly becoming obsolete.
There is absolutely nothing to be gained by Russia entering into a more aggressive Kinetic War.
I can't believe I have to repeat this on this Simplicius article.
I am continuously amazed by the inability of people to compare real world outcomes with predictions and analysis and then draw conclusions about who is realiable source of information and analyst, and who is not.
We have been listening to these people for years, that is a large enough sample size.
The facts are:
1) Kazakhstan signed a military cooperation agreement with the UK.
2) Drones started flying from there into Russia even before that. Sporadically at first, but after that agreement was signed, it ramped up.
3) After that there was also an attempted small-scale ground incursion aiming to capture the Russian ICBM base in Orenburg
4) Lavrov publicly called the Kazakhs out.
5) Nothing changed -- drones continued flying from Kazakhstan into Russia, hitting refineries, chemical plants, metallurgy, defense manufacturing, etc.
6) Then the *-stans went to DC all together. Extremely ominous.
7) Then Tokayev went to Moscow and just because he went to Moscow some people decided that eternal true friendship will be the norm from here on. But in fact pretty much every day since then drones have again flown from Kazakhstan.
8) All throughout, and since before the SMO even, Kazakhstan has been carrying out de-Russification policies very reminiscent of what was going on in Ukraine two decades ago.
P.S. Is Escobar even aware drones are flying from Kazakhstan into Russia? I don't think I have ever heard him mention it. If he isn't, then, well, what is there to even say about his reliability as a source?
You underestimate Putin. Against all western opinions odds he play's this Chess the same way the Chinese would do. Long Term Solutions matter, not the quick win like they were looking forward in Vietnam and Afghanistan and had to run with their tail between their legs. The Sun rises in the East and goes down in the West.
There is no need for drama. Finland will slowly or not so slowly learn the reality of cutting itself off from its natural trading partner and quietly decline back into northern economic irrelevance.
Sooner or later the Finns and the Swedes will understand why they were not permitted a referendum on ending a long and sucessful policy of neutrality and that their leaders are thinking of jobs in Brussels etc and not the welfare of their voters.
The Finns are irredeemable Nazis, the only cure for which condition is measured in kilo- and megatons. If they were ever going to understand anything, we would not be here.
Read Medvedev's essay on Finland from a few months ago.
GM's strategy for everything is to proceed directly to WWIII and the nuclear apocalypse.
I'm almost certainly wasting my time here, but I'm not banking on the 1% chance that GM isn't a schizoid and is amenable to reason, I'm talking to the rest of those here, who I presume don't have an Armageddon fetish.
If you're playing a game where you have a 51-49% advantage, or even a 60-40% advantage, then you don't go all in and risk everything on a single turn of the cards or roll of the dice.
Russia and the East have the advantage here, so they're playing multiple small stakes games over a long period and still maintaining the escalation dominance.
He is a neocon propagandist. Probably paid. He is pushing their narrative. Russia is losing and is desperate to strike back. It serves 2 purposes. To increase pressure on Putin to do something stupid. Strike a NATO country. Failing that set the narrative for a false flag. US/NATO needs this to drum up support for continuing the war. What they really want is Romania and Poland to be the next cannon fodder.
Ahhh, those Nukes ! If they would make any Difference for one side to survive the Israeli would have used them already. But even those perverted Killers won't dare because they would be evaporated in response. Britain and the US already supplied depleted Uranium Ammo to both Irak and Ukraine which caused millions of people suffer but not instantly died. That kind of Nukes are already in use. So nothing new.
Try looking through the other end of your ukie telescope. It is Ukraine that is being destroyed at all levels. The Russian bear by comparison has a few mosquito bites. Fool
that's what the Europeans want, so Russia must forego its own pleasure and its strikes outside of Ukraine. The day may come, but Russia isn't waiting for Europe to rearm to take what it needs for its security in Ukraine. By the time the Europeans work up the nerve to cold-bloodedly start WWIII, Odessa will be a highly fortified Russian port and Ukraine will ask permission to use it for grain exports. As for Poland -- there go its dreams of co-owning Odessa.
> Reports indicate that most Ukrainian troops in the pocket have no retreated to the north part of Mirnograd and are hiding in basements
Sly Simplicius' innuendo, equating Ukrainian troops to incels hiding from life in their mother basements. Although in the Ukrainians' case they are hiding from death
> Not far to the west of that, Russia has made a surprise breakthrough in the Orekhove direction, capturing most of Mala Tokmachka, from whence Ukraine’s ill-fated 2023 counter-offensive had once begun
English here: there is a "from whence" above, but 'from' is redundant as 'whence' is already "from where"
someone has to step in, otherwise "from whence" will spread like "irregardless" did, like a cancer in the mouth of every speaker.
Sadly if you become too permissive with regards to language and its rules, then you let free to develop monstrosities like valley girl accent and ebonics
Hello Frantic. Whence is an older term and mostly used, in my view, as more of an artistic application. It is an elegant word. I dug this up for you. Cheers.
Irregardless is self-contradictory. From whence is redundant. Not the same. Another fun one is used all the time by the British Premiere League (football) announcers -- 'just about'. To a Brit, it means that the action barely succeeded, and to an American means the action barely failed (the keeper just about kept the ball out of the net). As an American it is always kind of jarring to hear it employed in that way even though I know what it means.
"i+" prefix and "+less" suffix both express the concept of negation, lacking something, being without
Hence there is redundancy in "irregardless"
It's also self-contradictory as you mention, if we look at the word as composed of "ir+regardless"="not without regard" ?= "with regard" = "regardful" ??
Instead of pouncing on Simplicius' choices of rhetorical style deviations, you should rather be pointing at the ubiquitous pain-in-the-side lack of quality of those many blocks of subpar machine translations. It would be so much better to run the Russian/Ukrainian originals through ChatGPT and ask it for style adjustment to American newspapers. Requesting "Boston Globe", for example, makes these sources actually quite readable.
Because many use the expression does not mean it is correct. Not certain, but I doubt you will find much use of the expression in literature before the 60s.
Moderns are not familiar with declension in the English language
The declension here is: "whence" = "from where" (motion/cause from some point of origin)
Declension is used thoroughly in the German language, in Russian and in the other Slavic languages I know of, anciently in Latin as well, although among the Romance languages, it survives only in Romanian.
Usage of it got lost in modern English, probably in the process of Old English and Norman French mixing, and only the simpler features (of French in this case) survived.
Therefore, an English speaker not comfortable with using declension to express the concept of motion from a place ("whence"), should employ the more familiar preposition+noun/adverb construct ("from where").
When instead he goes with "from whence", he manages to botch both approaches at the same time
It looks like the Russian army is gearing up for a sprint to Zaporozhye and the City of Dnieper. I have no idea what kind of troop numbers they would need to make those pushes, but simply maneuvering into blocking positions at both of those cities would be devastating. Russia would be able to flank most of the eastern front from the southwest with a defensible line at the Dnieper river and those 2 cities.
What Russian sprint lol, it is like 6 months they are stuck assaulting Stepnogorsk, which following the Dniepr northward, is 5 or 6 settlements removed from Zaporizhzhia
The Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil infra may not be very effective, but the attacks on power stations seem to have more desired effects. Can't really hide power outages. Are they nuisance attacks? Maybe. But people notice instantly.
The way the attacks against the Ukrainian grid were mismanaged by Putin (has that man managed anything properly since he returned to office in 2012?) will go down as one of the biggest unforced errors in history. If it was indeed an unforced error and not part of the controlled demolition project that it seems to be. Only the conduct of the first month of the SMO rivals it.
Let's review the history:
1) Istanbul (which was grand treason on its own, but let's not revisit that right now) falls apart, and then Putin sits on his hands for six months as his army is whittling away due to attrition and lack of new recruits, refusing to mobilize, while the enemy mobilizes a million men.
2) Ukrainians begin to turn the tide, boosted by NATO weapons, first slowly in Kherson, then the collapse in Kharkov happens.
3) Then the first strikes on infrastructure happen -- first a dam on the Ingulets river is hit, then TPPs in Kharkov (likely not because they were TPPs, but because they were used as staging areas for equipment)
4) The Crimean bridge gets blown up on Saturday morning, October 8th 2022
5) Then Surovikin, newly appointed as commander, unleashes one of the few proper missile strikes on Ukraine on Monday, October 10th 2022. Some impressive hits in the center of Kiev, but mostly it was energy grid strikes. And we thought "They will finally shut it all down for good and win the war". Yeah, not so fast. Because:
6) The strikes continue with gradually diminishing intensity all the way to December, the Ukrainian grid is near collapse, but not pushed over the edge, then they are suddenly halted, and Surovikin is dismissed.
7) Then we have on-and-off strikes here and there, but the moment has, characteristically for Putin, been missed. Instead of shutting the grid down permanently, he gave them time to connect to Europe as a backup power supply source, reinforce substations, buy up all the spare transformers in the world, etc. etc. And he opened himself to reciprocal action.
8) Ukraine/NATO then begin striking refineries in Russia in early 2024. There is no meaningful response even though that sets an absolutely unacceptable precedent -- nothing should ever have been allowed to fly further than Belgorod without an immediate nuclear response, because that undermines completely the nuclear posture of the country.
9) The attacks on Russian refineries largely stop after that, but not the general drones strikes. And they are eventually renewed in mid-2025, leading this time to real fuel shortages.
10) Then in the last month NATO started striking TPPs and 330-kV and even 750-kV transformers. As far away as Vologda, Vladimir and Tatarstan. No response to that either.
Meanwhile Ukraine has still not been shut down for good.
So what was the end result of Putin initiating the energy infrastructure strikes back in 2022? Russia opened itself for strikes on its own infrastructure, while Ukraine has not been shut down in any meaningful way, plus nobody cares about Ukraine anyway.
Masterful 5D chess play by the cosmic grandmaster, isn't it? The only way to not see catastrophic incompetence here is to invoke grand treason and it being part of a controlled demolition program building off what Gorbachev did (who similarly successfully managed to mask his true intentions behind nice sounding rhetoric, and by the time people wised up to what was happening it was too late)
One thing that Putin's opponents in the West have gotten right, especially the Europeans, is that they have the measure of the man. They know him inside out - they know he is risk averse, slow to act, craves a deal, and is at heart a Europhile. Accordingly, the Boiled Frog strategy is perfect.
The mistake started on Day 1, invading with a weak force and assuming a deal would be forthcoming immediately. The man has always been a great tactician, but not a very good strategist.
Also, he cannot be a strategist, it is not allowed under the current Russian system, or at least not strategy oriented towards winning and other significantly beneficial for Russia outcomes. The current system is rooted in the defeat in the Cold War.
Which is why for example, you have Nabiulina saying there will be a deep recession in Russia in the coming years and then making it happen herself with the self-sabotaging Central Bank policies she has put in place.
'They know him inside out - they know he is risk averse, slow to act, craves a deal, and is at heart a Europhile. Accordingly, the Boiled Frog strategy is perfect.'
This is precisely what the oligarchs thought about Putin until one day they were manipulated into meeting him in a house next to Moscow. The house happened to be the ex-home of Stalin.
Hmmm, risk averse? Putin took back Crimea with hardly a shot being fired in 2014. In 2022, in a few days, the Sea of Azov became a Russian lake and now controls access to the Caspian. At the same time the Russian army seized control of the biggest nuclear power station in Europe and dealt with the US lab threat. Putin is currently leading his country in the biggest war in Europe since 1945 with a front line twice the length of the Western Front in WW1. The West threatens to close the Baltic to Russian ships. Why don't they do it? Because it is outside the scope of the NATO treaty and they know that if they do, Russia can close the entrance to the Baltic, not with a dramatic blockade, just a few missiles. Ask the Houthis.
The West has now run out of weapons and money and is totally discredited. Diplomatically Russia China and Iran are immensely stronger than they were a few years ago. The Global South can hardly be impressed with the political, diplomatic and miltary prowess of the Western powers. The Bretton Woods world of 1945 is falling apart.
One wonders what Putin might get up to if he wasn't risk averse.
You write as though Putin is the sole decision maker and originator of all things Russia. This is not true. He is the FINAL decision maker but in the end responds to internal pressures just like any other political leader. And as time passes he is increasingly more and more isolated within his own administration as views harden. I've commented many times here and other blogs that Vladimir Putin is THE liberal faction of the Russian polity. Everyone else is to the right of him
Agreed, as per Sakwa, he is a powerful Chairman of the Board. BUT he still has to decide and does. Many political leaders try and avoid deciding at all costs - that way they can't be wrong... they hope.
Putin was clearly focusing on economic and cultural developments until 2022. This act created him the prosperity and popularity to face the NATO intrusion toward Ukraine. He has enough credit to finish this war and remain at the top position. Neither the Russian leadership nor the general population is looking to be in the middle of a nuclear war. It is the homicidal/suicidal maniacs of the West who are playing for planetary depopulation.
Russia reacted to the Maidan coup because they realized they could lose the whole Black Sea + Fleet. Reacted. No risk. They were forced to react.
2022, they reacted to Ukraines demands of entering NATO and getting Nukes to defend themselves. Reacted. No risk. They were forced, and I would say tricked/lured to react. The ISW-site was up and running the day after the Invasion. The sanctions and frozen/stolen assets was prepared in advance. What West didnt anticipate was the Ukrainian stubborn defense and blunders from the Russian side. The War was then created and formed as it took it own turns.
And if Russia continue to react they will soon be outsmarted.
The young Putin was hard. He took the fight with CIA and the Oligarchs - he took back the oil- gas and ore industry the first years of 2000. And saved Russia.
Before commenting on Russian military operations the first AND ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL source is Jacques Baud and his book “The Russian Art of War”. It’s like talking about the Gulag without reading Solzhenitsyn.
Also. Electricity and alternating current are complicated beasts. The demand must be matched by equal generation in a grid instantaneously all the time. Take of large group of consumers and you have over generation and frequency increase forcing you to take more generation off as protection. Take generation off, frequency reduces and you have to take load off. The problem is that those big adjustments are way to big and tend to overcorrect, leading to other imbalances, so in the end you have cascade effects and large spread blackouts. Then, taking capacity back online is not easy, as every generator in the grid needs to be made to match the frequency and phase of the grid, lest it be destroyed by excess currents
The addition of a small propulsion unit is an obvious upgrade to the glide bombs. I have been expecting to see this for months now.
I can't imagine the terror that these weapons induce. Russia has thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks). NATO has no defence against this very few comparable weapons.
Negotiations now! End the war. Save millions of lives.
NATO has no answer to whatever they come up with, Ukraine is their one and only testcase and they are bleeding to death, enough sacrifice of Ukrainian drone fodder time to surrender. GM why don’t you put your nukes into the place where the sun never shines?
Open war between NATO and Russia will be much different than this proxy war. NATO is pretty much cornered into implementing combined arms maneuver, which it's been training and equipping for. FAB glide bombs AND tactical nukes would theoretically have a potential role, so you may want to extricate your comment from wherever the sun wasn't shining and recalibrate it.
Vinny NATO is already in an open war with Russia and guess where? They’re tormenting and haunting their brains how to stop this Russian Bear which is for now only in a hibernating grinding meat mode, stop suggesting that NATO is preparing for war, they are in the middle of it, all their strategy experts, their think or dumps thanks, their financial contributions, their economic debts and social unwillingness to get involved in an exclusive elite cabal war and above all their powerlessness. Like NATO Russia isn’t left alone, China cannot afford it and don’t forget EU and NATO have everything to lose all their colonies, their Empires based on theft and sucking all their resources, the east can only win their self determination and above all the disposal of an enormous wealth on basic energies and rare earths, for some China owns 99%, all these the west badly needs for their hightech and advanced weapons, not to mention the progress of their economy.The sun I do hope shines for everybody but there are places where it shines more for some than for others, and it’s shining for the east now. My advice get more in the sun also the place where it usually doesn’t shine.
NATO isn't in an open war with Russia. NATO will avoid an open war with Russia. Even after Russia tames the three annoying and insignificant Baltic states by either arms or diplomacy the rest of NATO won't care that much.
There is still the belief amongst various ignoramus elites in the EU and NATO that sanctions are going to disrupt Russia and "turn the ruble to rubble". The Russian Federation can get along quite well without importing nails and knitting needles from former Soviet republics.
Yes, Russia and China have growing capacities of industrial production. The EU claims it wants to re-arm while deindustrializing. The West is really that stupid.
Know the facts! What was Secretary Nuland doing in Ukraine years before the Russian invasion? What did she mean when she said the CiA-DARPA biolabs were only there for research and not for development? Is there someone who believes what she said? How many billions pumped Biden into Ukraine knowing there was 10% for the Big guy, who could that guy be? NATO was already on Ukrainian soil before Putin marched in. EU is falling apart, how many small business but also mega corporations are closing their doors and not symbolic but now Chinese businesses are invading EU markets and this no EU company can compete with. The West is losing ground under their feet. Both are really needed, China as an alternative and equal economic partner and Russia to come to terms geopolitically with the EU, I don’t see any other option except eternal war.
“82 percent of Israeli Jews support the idea of expelling the entire population of Gaza and nearly a half support killing them. 80 percent of Israelis say they are “not so troubled” or “not troubled at all” by reports of famine and suffering among the population in Gaza.”
<<<<<<SHORAD can take them out, but most importantly, there is really no conceivable scenario in which NATO will have to defend against them.<<<< NATO is using them in Ukraine. SHORAD hasn't been able to stop everything so far. In fact, all everyone on the ground can talk about is how it's failure to shape the conflict has changed the whole notion of peer to peer ground combat.
One of the main purposes of the glide bombs is to further defeat the western military iterations of SHORAD.
What exactly do you think the big consequential advantage of tactical nukes is? You keep talking about them like it's game over for whoever is receiving them once they are employed. Why is that?
Tactical nukes don't fit with Russia's current strategic objectives in Ukraine. What's more they are winning handily without using them so they seem unlikely to change their successful strategy.
To honest... thermonuclear weapons are very unlikely to be used. Russia can not afford the fallout and the EU knows they will be in the receiving end as well.
What worries me are neutron bombs. A thermonuclear weapon without the external layer of fissionable material. Neutron weapons are primarily fusion bombs with very little radioactive fallout but massive amounts of life killing charged particles... they will kill humans and animals alike. Insects too?
Indeed, neutron bombs are the nuclear equivalent of chemical warfare... and that worries me a lot. Using them would be catastrophic, but the demented globalist financial aristocracy in Western Europe won't care, they'll see this as the "least" loss to their wealth.
A slight technical correction: " Russia has thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks) " should be " Russia has hundreds of thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks). "
Also interesting: Russia can also easily scale to build out gravity bombs by the hundreds of thousands per year. The remarkable thing about gravity bombs is they don't have to be anywhere nearly as precisely manufactured as, say, artillery shells. They can be primitive, imprecise castings filled with poured explosive and the glide kit takes care of adjusting away all imprecision.
When I was young, in the early seventies, I was a sports shooter. We trained three times a week at the shooting range of the Soviet military unit in our city. Of course, Russian soldiers were our regular visitors, and we were on friendly terms with several of them. When they saw how little ammunition we had and how we had to count every empty cartridge, they laughed at us. Then one of the guys went and brought a large cap of ammunition. When we asked if this would not be missing from some register, he laughed and said that the amount of ammunition that is kept in the warehouses is not enough to count. We learned then that when a Russian says that there is enough of something, our number can mean a gigantic, unimaginable number for average Europeans. The West has no idea what a terrible amount of military material the Russians have accumulated over time, with the largest raw material reserves on the planet and a huge production capacity behind them. I really hope that the stupid warmongering Western leadership will stop bragging about the edge of the abyss into which they now want to push the European peoples, again !
Germany solved your Jew problem as you suggest and it was more war like than any of the surrounding countries. There were an infinitesimal number of Jews in China and Japan in the pre second world war period and those countries killed each other by the millions. In fact, it took intervention by what you would call Jew dominated countries to step in (for their own reasons) and finally put an end to the slaughter. There were a tiny number of Jews in Iran and Iraq when they had their mass slaughter conflict for a number of years.
Edit: There were no Jews period in the pre contact native population of the America's but they had endless horrific wars, some of them on a pretty large scale over an extended period of time.
War is the result of tribalism. There was, is and always will be tribalism in human society.
Removed the Jew then Germany experienced a time of plenty and beauty. So the Jew declared war in 1933 and used its puppet empires U.S. uk Soviet to destroy it.
Same success occurred as when king Edward removed the Jew in 1280- the middle class thrived.
Defense of the Jew is being a traitor to your own race - goebbles (presuming you are not a chicken swinging g sin merchant defending your own tribe)
Yes. I am the product of a Judeo/Christian culture as is just about everybody on this board. Even if you, yourself, weren't born and raised in it, you are so immersed in the culture that you use the Judeo based value system and the language that expresses it. Your very condemnation of Judaism and seeking to see evidence all around you that fulfills your paranoid views is a moral classification world view that is founded on Judaic roots.
In the sense that you use the word, we are all Jews here. My ancestors, my immediate past family and myself all professed our faith based on an English translation of the Bible. We then supplemented that with the writings of a group of Jews writing about another Jew who expanded on the Bible. We call that the New Testament. Those two foundational texts have shaped Western culture. The terminology of condemnation that you use is reflects the morality and perception of reality that flows from those two texts.
And yes, your use of quotes around my name as a allusion to perhaps the Judaic influence over me is well put. Of course, the origin of Ronald is Aaron, the name of a number of notables in the Bible. But fortunately you are on the case. Uncovering another Jewish plot to foist Jewishness on the world along with names like Mary, Jacob and wait for it.....David.....
TLDR but Aside from the sky daddy nonsense - Judeo/christian is a false relationship spread by the Jew volcano demon foreskin for land demon worshipers who actually believe Christ is boiling in feces and spit on Christians.
Until the leaders and generals, and their families (if the concept of "family" counts for crap anymore with these animals) start dying there will be no negotiations. No real negotiations.
These 'glide bombs' were invented during the Vietnam conflict and were called 'smart bombs'. Some spectacular video came out of Operation Desert Storm on CNN when Middle East Arabs and Western forces chased Sadam Hussein's army out of Kuwait. It was said that an operator could guide the glider through the doorway of a target building. Ordinary bombs have long been fitted with tail additions that turn a gravity bomb to a guided glider. The addition of the propulsion unit is to my knowledge a new and now obvious improvement which actually produces a hybrid between a common gravity bomb and a full air to ground missile. I am also reminded of the Japanese additions to their torpedoes dropped in Pearl Harbor to enable usage in shallow waters.
Having followed the generational changes of the Russian glide bombs over the last three years I see a fundamentally different approach in design and cost between the US and Russia.
The US created very expensive glide bombs... yes, they are very accurate but their cost prevents the volume necessary. In many cases they are also guided by an operator, using laser designators, inertial and GPS guiding, etc... wonderful machines... and very expensive.
Russia, OTOH, started with extremely crude designs, stuff that could be strapped to a plain gravity bomb (of whey the have millions around?) and lobbed it into a self guided, of sorts, bomb. Over time they have improved their designs but they look to be on the simple side of things and producible in very large numbers.
I mean, adding a small jet to the bomb has to double, triple? the cost of the guiding package, huh?
Of course, there is the importance of range. The Russians can keep their cheap short range FAB in the tactical front while they use their more expensive versions for strategic offense...
IMHO, this war is a defining line. Even the fog that currently allowed the Russians to use their mixed weapons assault will soon not be an issue as cheap imaging devices that can see through the fog will be implemented.
Even as a drone is more expensive than a bullet or a grenade, the overall system cost is much lower. Delivering that bullet/grenade requires some infantry with all the concomitant expenses and risks. Delivering a grenade via a cheap drone is actually much cheaper, and often more accurate. Heck, they can deliver the drone through a window and a passageway...
War is getting cheap and more accurate.
The future of war is in unmanned vehicles. drone and cheap guided weapons.
God help us... the cost of waging very deadly wars on the cheap is upon us.
Up until now, the Aristocratic Classes held back on wars due to their very high costs.... now, wars are becoming cheap and automated.
I used to work in Kazakhstan in the oil refinery known as Tengiz located on the shore of the Caspian Sea. It was/still is a joint venture primarily between Chevron and the government of Kazakhstan (there are other western partners too) which was signed in the early 1990’s for forty years. All of its production goes through a large pipeline from the site in a Kazakhstan to the port facilities in Novorossisk where it is exported to world markets. The oil is from Kazakhstan and NOT from Russia.
Now I understand why the price of gasoline in Germany has risen by over 14 cents since Saturday.
Oil from Kazakhstan flows primarily to Germany and other European countries, where it reaches refineries via pipelines such as the Druzhba pipeline and by sea. The PCK refinery in Schwedt, for example, obtains some of its oil from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba pipeline to ensure security of supply.
Via seaports and pipelines: Kazakh oil also arrives by tanker at European ports such as Trieste (Italy) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). From there, it is transported via pipelines to end customers in various EU countries.
For refineries: The oil is delivered to refineries like PCK in Schwedt, where it is processed into various products such as diesel or gasoline.
John! On a map of Kazakhstan, you will find the city of Atyrau just north of the delta of the Ural river, where it empties into the Caspian Sea on its north shore. The Tengiz oil field and refinery are located about 300km (as the crow flies) WSW of Atyrau and about 100km south of a town called Kulsary. In general, it is not located near to any settlement of significance - remote! Due to its location, a dedicated oil pipeline was built from Tengiz to the Black Sea (Novopossisk). It is owned and operated by the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) which was headquartered in Moscow.
I found Atyrau, but only 100m west and you are very much in Russia. I'm pretty sure you meant ESE, because if you go south on Sarykamy's Road from Kulsary, i found what looks like it could be a refinery.
About 500 miles from the lake. LOL. Interesting choice of names.
Thanks.
Funny that Chevron is still involved. Sure makes the Ukraine war seem even more insane than it is. Just one giant scam after another.
Yes, yes, you are quite correct, to the east. Should be 300km east-southeast from Atyrau. The settlement of Sarykamys (about 50km from the plant) was eventually evacuated and everyone resettled in Atyrau because of the air released by the processing plant. To the west, the distance to the border with Russia is actually 360km, to Astrakhan is 390km
The attacks on Russian oil-refinerys are of course exaggerated by the Ukrainians (and West). Neverthless, they are hurting and completely unneccessary to sustain from Russian perspective. They are made possible from UK/US resources which should be taken out.
Any other reasoning is treason.
The glide-bombs accuracy should be discussed. How is it possible to hit something in a 50 meter cirkle from 200km? Without guidance, just kinetic energy and alignment when released?
The first ones hitting 10-30km away was astounding, but 200 km…or 400km?
This fall and winter will hopefully be foggy all over the front so we can be home by Christmas.
I think the rocket is needed for maneuverability also but question the hit ratio at such a distance.
” In 2025, Ukrainian forces reportedly began jamming Russian UMPK-equipped glide bombs, significantly reducing their accuracy. According to David Axe, writing for Forbes, jamming has forced Russia to use up to 16 bombs to hit a target. These countermeasures disrupt satellite guidance, undermining one of Russia’s battlefield advantages.”. From Wiki for what it is worth.
Seriously, and I don't mean to be rude or dismissive, what David Axe (writing for Forbes) has to say about the accuracy of anyone's bombs and artillery isn't worth much.
And that's not a personal point about David Axe.
BUT, if he can explain how he reached the mathematical conclusion of "16 bombs to hit a target" then he can show his working, and explain it all in detail to the world.
Could be D Axe is inventing ”western” facts. I wrote for ”what it is worth”. Obviously nothing.
I was more curious about the accuracy of the bombs when tossed those distances. Jamming the GPS is one thing. Lining up the aircraft and releasing the bomb at exact bearing and height is one thing 8 km from target and a whole other thing 80 km from target.
Kinzhals and Zircons are flying with pin-point accuracy, and you have the plasma problem to deal with there, so why would glide bombs have difficulties with guidance?
But we are talking about solid bombs with attached UMPK-kit, tiny wings and fins and no propulsions. Free falling bombs , lobbed from planes, and then gliding to the target area. The maneuverability cant be that extensive going through to the target and facing rain, strongs winds etc. GLONASS can be jammed.
”In 2025, Ukrainian forces reportedly began jamming Russian UMPK-equipped glide bombs, significantly reducing their accuracy. According to David Axe, writing for Forbes, jamming has forced Russia to use up to 16 bombs to hit a target. These countermeasures disrupt satellite guidance, undermining one of Russia’s battlefield advantages.”
And if we talk about 400 km for a glide-bomb you really have to propulse it with a jetmotor.
There is no practical difference in guidance acuity caused by increased range when supported by machine vision, terrain mapping and shielded satellite guidance.
I discussed with someone who thought all of these UMPK was propelled.
And with these 400km ”jet-boosted” throwed solid bombs with tiny wings and steering fins (steering with what?) my question was: how do you get accuracy?
My understanding of those kits is that they have adjustable guidance through terrain mapping and satellite and, now, propulsion. They are pretty pinpoint - you don't get that accuracy from a fire and forget standoff weapon. Anyway my point is that however they do it, increasing the range won't impune its accuracy.
The commentariat here dont have insights in the law of physics…
The bombs are throwed/tossed and they are NOT equipped with terrain mapping (for what use would it be??). You have to toss it in the precise direction to the target, eg. bearing and probably adjust for winddirection (as snipers do). These glide-bombs loses height, they can never gain height, and cant turn at all. Just do small adjustments.
Doing this at a range of 400km…its revolutionary or fake.
Asked Grok and got this:
”To deliver a glide bomb equipped with a UMPK kit (or similar satellite navigation aid) accurately on target, the aircraft—typically a fighter-bomber like the Su-34—must follow a specific flight profile to maximize standoff range, ensure the bomb's wings can deploy post-release for gliding, and minimize exposure to ground-based air defenses. The process treats the munition as an enhanced gravity bomb that transitions into guided glide mode after drop. Here's how it works step by step:1. Approach PhaseThe aircraft approaches the release zone at medium to high altitude (typically 3,000–9,000 meters initially, climbing to 9,000–12,000 meters for release) and high subsonic speed (around 700–800 km/h or more).
It flies in a straight or slightly climbing path toward the target's general direction, often 40–70 km (or up to 100 km with advanced variants) behind the front line or away from the target to stay outside enemy air defense engagement zones.
Escorts (e.g., Su-35 fighters) may accompany for protection against interceptors.
Target coordinates are pre-programmed into the bomb's satellite navigation system (e.g., GLONASS-based) before takeoff or en route.
2. Release Maneuver (Loft or Toss Bombing Technique)To extend the bomb's glide range (up to 60–95 km or more, depending on the kit and bomb size), the aircraft often performs a "loft" or "toss" bombing maneuver:The pilot pulls up the nose sharply to a pitch angle of 30–40 degrees (or more in some cases), entering a zoom climb.
At the peak of the climb (when upward momentum is highest), the bomb is released from underwing or centerline pylons.
This imparts additional forward and upward velocity to the bomb, allowing it to follow a ballistic arc before gliding—essentially "tossing" it farther than a level-flight drop.
In simpler scenarios (shorter ranges), a level-flight release at cruising altitude and speed may suffice, but lofting is common for maximum standoff to avoid threats.
The bomb free-falls initially as a gravity munition, then its wings unfold automatically (via spring/pyrotechnic mechanisms) seconds after release, rotating the bomb if needed for proper orientation.
3. Post-Release PhaseImmediately after release, the aircraft banks sharply and turns away (often 180 degrees) to exit the area quickly, descending if needed to evade detection.
The bomb's guidance system activates: satellite navigation (with inertial backup) corrects the trajectory using control surfaces and fins, allowing it to glide precisely to the target over 7–10 minutes.
No further input from the aircraft is required, as it's fire-and-forget.
This method ensures the bomb hits with high accuracy (CEP of 10–30 meters) while keeping the delivery aircraft safe. Factors like wind, release altitude/speed, and bomb weight (e.g., FAB-500 to FAB-3000) influence the exact profile, but the loft technique is key for operational use in contested environments. ”
"This fall and winter will hopefully be foggy all over the front so we can be home by Christmas."
I had no idea that you are serving on the "front" I have to ask who is the "we" that you talk about?? Or are you just another of my fellow Americans who sits and moralizes thousands of miles well out of harm's way??
We are the poor Russian soldiers dying at the front, the even sadder Ukrainians sacrificed for nothing, the civilians in Ukraine and abroad, the Russians all over Russia. We are also the guys and girls of Simplicius substack doing working hours to comprehend, discuss and making our voices heard in that sabre-rattling noise that has spread all over the World.
Just as I suspected. A fellow American who will sit and judge thousands of miles away and suddenly you are concerned with anyone who must suffer "real war" Guess what? You can say that crap all you want, your posts show your true feelings so go blow that nonsense out of your ass
"I’ve often harped on the fact that pro-Ukrainian voices use months-old strikes as ‘proof’ of the damage Russia is taking..."
To say nothing of the damage they claim that Russia is inflicting. Wiping out entire kindergartens for example, or attacking apartment buildings where the damage is clearly from their own failed air defence intercepts. Need a photo of a destroyed Russian T-72? No problem, just paint a Z on the side of one of your own, right over the dirt even. No one will notice. Then there was that photo that showed a bunch of destroyed cars right next to an apartment block with not a shattered window on any of the apartments and no burn marks on the ground.
I believe them when they say Russians hit a hotel though, because you can be sure it wasn't a wedding or bar mitvah happening there. Only the best accommodation for our brave NATO warriors. Well, you got what you paid for, or at least what you deserved.
I am very much looking forward to the total capitulation of the terrorist state ukraine with zelensky and his evil ilk either dead or facing life sentences.
"I am very much looking forward to the total capitulation of the terrorist state"
The moment that happens, NATO nations quickly suffer economic shock & collapse - Their central banks bought Ukrainian government bonds as security for hundreds of billions in loan guarantees.
Blackrock and chums also have the UK and other NATO member governments by the balls. If a change of policy or leadership happens, they get quietly reminded the Blackrock cartel will stop buying their government bonds.
The wave of public truth telling (and I am not denying it is the truth) is not evidencing a sudden about-face amongst the Ukrainian zealots although there is a slow slide in the vigour of the death wish here. It is about throwing the kitchen sink at getting NATO to intervene directly in the air and on the ground. It is a threat to the west that Ukraine is not going to keep throwing itself onto this pyre unless the west gets real about fighting the Russians. It is the penultimate paragraph to the end one which goes like this
-we were not defeated by Russia. We were betrayed by our allies.
You can guess where this leads......
Fresh out break of panic amongst the western leading non entities not sure which way to run- because no way is NATO going to get stuck into this lost war now, and go down with Ukraine. Although if Paris, Berlin, the Baltic frontline and the odd US aircraft carrier want to burn they could lob some serious missile damage at Russia and see what a final total loss of patience looks like.
If they were too utterly stupid and gullible to not understand the clear warnings of dozens, hundreds even, of credible interlocutors that NATO's games would definitely get them demolished while their oligarch overlords made billions, they will also be too stupid, not to mention just plain dead, to have the wherewithal, resources or motivation to make ANYONE 'pay'.
The most hopeful outcome for the the Ukrainians is that they end up like the Chechens: brought to Russian heel, militarily euthanized and as well-fed as they are obedient.
Brave man Vinny. I'm guessing you don't live in a country where dissent gets you death in a front line trench? Or a country filled with millions of Ukrainians? Such a brave man.
It was clear from the beginning that Ukraine was to be used as an expendable battering ram. It is even more clear that the USA, NATO et al have been meddling in Ukraine for a very long time. In a sense, Ukraine is meeting its destiny and given that it’s not really one big country anyway there is room for “adjustment”….
This winter will be horrible for Kyiv. I know from a friend there that they're lucky - getting electricity for 2 hours/day, some have none at all, and are lucky to have water. Poor regular folks.
Of course, we tend to forget these "regular folks" in Western Ukraine and even Kiev hate Russia intensely and wish for little else than Russian blood. I only feel for the kids caught up in all this and being brainwashed daily by the nazis.
My friend is not like that. She is not a fanatic. She got no illusions. It's much harder for non-fanatics. She didn't leave Kyiv because her husband is of draftable age and can't leave, so she stayed.
My wife also has a couple of friends in Kiev also much in the same situation. So certainly we can never say all people feel that way. It is a tragedy any way one chooses to look at it - so many people must suffer for the greed of a few.
Unfortunately when nations are swept up in the tides of war brought on by the moneyed few, suffering and death are widespread. But the fact of the matter is that Ukraine is being used a disposable proxy, and as such there are consequences. These are to beaten into the population and will echo for generations. It has always been so, we in the pampered west have merely gotten out of touch with this brutal reality. That too is about to change…
They will have to settle for Russian fire instead of blood, which will cool their jets whether they like it or not. The Russiaphobia is manufactured - it can be dismantled and ameliorated.
Ok, more serious now. I believe that we're looking for another longer period of Wars, Conclicts, Up-and Downrisings and Totalitarism, Censorship and Arrests. Most Westerners either have no idea or are totally ignorant what's about heading to them (like Digital ID or Agenda 2030) like a War coming right to their own Home doorstep.
Germany in Particular has a History where a 30 year War left scars but the next Generation simply said : Get over it ! heading for a short period of Peace before the Shit hit the Fan for the next War and the next War ... now heading for WWIII.
In that respect i would possibly feel safer in North Korea than in German, Berlin.
Once again, if NATO strikes on Russian infrastructure are no big deal, then why is Russia not striking NATO infrastructure?
Hit the US refineries along the Gulf Coast, 750-kV transformers in Europe, TPPs in Germany, etc.
No big deal, what's all that fuss about, right?
"The Art of Sophistry" authored by GM. 🥴
He makes a valid point though. The infra attacks are NATO-enabled. There's no deterrence. And, they do have an impact.
True, big difference between having *a* point and *the* point.
Russia is obviously clobbering Ukraine and will, I think, destroy it completely, but what, Simplicius, do you think would constitute victory in this SMO/war? Is it victory if Ukraine ceases to exist and the banderites slip into the woods? Is it victory if the US finds some other proxy to send drones into Russia? Is it victory if there is no cessation of deaths or threat? Or does victory require some sort of agreement that really opens the way to peace? Because I have a hard time thinking the west will ever go for such an agreement. Ukraine will cease to exist, but I'm not expecting an end to the war between NATO and Russia in my lifetime. Of course life can be unpredictable, so there's that.
The victory will be good enough to restrain the next applicant from becoming a proxy.
I wish I thought you were right. But if it’s so obvious (and I think it is) that Ukraine is being destroyed, why aren’t THEY calling it quits? I’d guess it’s because Ukrainians aren’t making the call, the US puppetmaster is, and he’s content to let Ukraine go to hell.
No, it won't.
There is no such thing as countries as real entities on their own, there are groups of people governing territories, and the interests of those people can be, and often indeed are, completely misaligned with the interests of the majority of people inhabiting the territories.
If this ends with Ukraine still mostly intact and Zelensky and co. retiring as near-billionaires in Miami and never having been seriously threatened either by Kinzhals on their bunkers or GRU operatives with FPVs and other means of destruction pursuing them in Miami, there will be plenty of elites elsewhere enthusiastic to volunteer for the same kind of deal.
Geographically, Ukraine is the best proxy - direct border with NATO and Russia. Central Asian countries trade routes are dependant on BRICS countries.
Iran just seized a tanker in Hormuz strait with Azerbaijani oil presumably destined for Israel.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OoTE0ijkd4E&t=743s
> thinking the west will ever go for such an agreement
Who cares while the rest of the world moves on? Think about the normative force of the facts ("normative Kraft des Faktischen") — Germany may come to remember a concept of its state theorist Georg Jellinek at some point.
The rest of the world is just going to move on while drones are still landing in Russia and Israelis are still free to commit genocide? How is that different than not moving on?
Good questions. No one dares to ”discuss” or stick their heads out regarding what exactly a ”victory” is. The same goes for ”peace” - what defines a peace?
Sad truth is that we never had peace. Just ignorance, la-la-land and an illusion of ”not war”. At least in ”my neighbourhood”. The WW2 did not end. The Mauerfall in Berlin 1991 didnt bring peace to Earth. It opened up more opportunities for warfare. And it will go on forever.
”Victory” is NOT something that brings peace. Victory in Ukraine is something else than Victory for Russia. What we need is a morale defeat for the West, especially for the sneaky little brits and the brusselites. They must lose face.
So Russia need to deliver, NOT negoiate, a crushing defeat and surrender of Ukrainian Armed forces. They need to remove and punish the junta in Kiev.
And if Macron/Starmer/Metz/Tusk dares to send troops to Ukraine - attack and make them look ridiculous. That would be a Victory in Ukraine, but certainly not bring peace, or for that matter Victory for Russia.
Victory for Russia comes after Victory in Ukraine AND if US/Europe aknowledge the right for Russias existence as a sovereign state on equal terms. If Russia can negoiate a new order of ”detente” or pause in the secret warfare against each other it would be called a Victory.
Why was Russia so backwards compared to Western Europe?
A big part of it is the shitty climate which made accumulating surplus very difficult. Especially before Ukraine was recovered and the Kuban region take over. Plus it was colder back then too.
But another big part of the problem is it being situated on the wide open Eurasian plane and warfare being constant. And not just constant, but also extremely destructive -- a lot of the European wars, especially in the late Middle Ages, were quite theatrical in nature. Nothing like a Mongol invasion. And nothing like constant slave raids -- Russia had millions of its people abducted into slavery by the hostile entities that occupied the southern steppes all the way into the 19th century. Think about the effects that had.
In the 19th century borders were pushed away sufficiently for a wide region to become permanently safe and some development to begin, but then in the 20th century there was the Nazi invasion, and we know what that did.
Meanwhile in Britain there has been no real invasion in a thousand years, two civil wars, some wars with Scotland and some bombing from the Germans in WWII, but overall it has barely seen any destruction. No wonder it emerged in such a favorable position eventually. And then replaced by the US, most of which has also seen no war ever, and absolutely none since 1865.
Well, what do we have now? Modern technology has made it so that cheap drones are flying all the way to Perm. And Russia is surrounded by enemies who are attacking it from all sides. Which is at best the same situation it was in before it defeated the steppe nomads, but in many ways much worse, because now there is no real rear.
And that will destroy its development prospects if it is not stopped, the same way the country was so handicapped for much of its existence.
But the only way to stop it is the application of extreme violence that reimposes deterrence and/or physically eliminates the hostile entities on the border. Nothing else will suffice.
Yet what is Putin doing? Well...
"AND if US/Europe acknowledge the right for Russia's existence as a sovereign state on equal terms. If Russia can negotiate a new order of ”detente” or pause in the secret warfare against each other it would be called a Victory."
Agreed. Cold day in hell then?
Victory lies in destruction of the Anglo-American Oligarchy.
Unless they are removed, the USA will continue its wars just as it has for all but 16 years since it was founded.
FWIW: the folks I listen to all agree that Russia -may- occupy Kiev, but won't go further West to Lvov.
They give chances as 50/50 on Odessa.
Let me go out on a limb and ask why Russia wouldn't want Moldova to control the area between Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi? It is part of the Odessa oblast, but we're not playing "Risk" here.
I don't think Russia had any territorial aspirations when the SMO started at all, but the question is what it will take to restore safety to the Russian people. I think it will take much more than Putin has expressed, but we shall see.
Also FWIW, I'm not at all sure we aren't playing Risk here. I think the neocons in DC are, although the game I'd have referred to is Civilizations.
Elena,
if one could rearrange the world according to his own plan, one would be the master of the universe. No one Is omnipotent. There is a limit to US/West powers.
US/West thought it could impose its will on Russia, by constriction, series of regime changes.... We all follow the ongoing story.
The essence is US/West misjudged the extent of their power, they overreached, intervened into the region where they cannot rule,
Russia is pushing them back...
Ukraine is learning that geopolitics is very cruel business, decisions have consequences.
It would not have been an easy job to guide Ukraine through geopolitical storms as a neutral country, it would have been a hard, difficult journey of creating a solid, sound, economically, politically society against all the ills of foreign intervention, meddling, extremism, corruption, hijacking the country by oligarchs...
It was easier to go for war, as it meant support for the coalition of foreign agents/extremists/corruptionist running the state was unquestioned.
But it led to war and defeat. In defeat, Bandera will lead once again, in his spirit and following his example.
The current leitmotiv is irreversibility of the defeat.
There is no going back. No one is offering Crimea for neutrality as in 2013, Donbas for neutrality as in 2021... even Crimea and 4 oblasts, plus neutrality, are questionable, now.
Defeat now is a relief for all soldiers on the front, the essence of defeat is going back in time, to the time when decisions have been made, and accepting all that has been lost as being lost forever.
Searching for a 38th parallel.
I don't think the US cares about regimes. I have argued elsewhere that Ukraine and the US are fighting different wars, with overlap. Ukraine is fighting for survival for itself, the US is fighting to retain hegemony. It doesn't need Ukraine to survive in order to win. I'm not saying it can or will win, incidentally, just that Ukraine's survival is unnecessary.
>Russia is pushing them back...
Russia isn't pushing back anything.
Pushing back would mean everything east of Brussels exiting NATO. Which is what the official demands from December 2021 anounted to. Quietly forgotten by Russia itself since then. But there was an implicit promise to use force to make it happen if necessary. Where is that force? As NATO fires into Russia with impunity daily...
>Searching for a 38th parallel.
1) The 38th parallel was not a win for the good guys -- the Americans got what they wanted, which was a foothold on the mainland. Whether that is half of Korea or all of it doesn't really matter.
2) It was a defeat for the Koreans -- they lost half their country. Similarly, as I keep asking here every week, and nobody has ever answered meaningfully -- if Stalin had begged for peace and a freeze along the then current lines in mid-1943, would that have been a victory for the USSR or a defeat? That would have meant the Baltics, Belarus and half of Ukraine remaining with the Nazis. Kind of like what we have now -- Belarus is not in the Nazi hands, but most of Ukraine is, and the Baltics.
the terms of the peace will be very clear: Ukraine totally neutral. No EU (now that the EU transformed itself into NATO's alter-ego, switching jobs off between one another in the war-making division). No NATO. No heavily-armed offensive military force. Odessa Russian and perhaps Kiev under a special regime of government. I hope that we are entering the era in which NATO shrinks back or even dissolves and the EU collapses. The EU -- started as a collective bargaining arrangement and ended as Thought Police. Fitting epitaph.
I don't think the chances of the west agreeing to that are very good, and you couldn't win that on the battlefield. That is, you could destroy your enemies but not necessarily make them agree to those terms. Hence my believe that Russia needs to act more decisively.
Victory is the achieving of the long-stated objectives, which do not include the cessation of Ukraine as an independent nation-state - albeit one which will never recover its former geographical extent.
Not at all likely even on the terms you mention, in my opinion, and a Pyrrhic victory if it is, if things continue as they are. The US is fighting a war, and Russia is trying to conduct an SMO. I think this incompatibility harms Russia.
>long-stated objectives, which do not include the cessation of Ukraine as an independent nation-state
That is not an option Russia has any more. Or really ever had -- fundamentally there can be no such thing as a non-anti-Russia Ukraine.
If the objectives of Russian leadership do not include the end of Ukraine as an independent state and the complete and permanent de-Ukrainization of the territory, then Russian leadership has to be put on trial for grand treason and replaced by new leadership that does pursue that objective.
The Russians will likely give the Baltics a spanking just to show the NAFO goons how bigly bad their future might be if they don't do a course correction.
That certainly would be out of character for Putin. They certainly are annoying little yappers, though. Something might happen if they seize a Russian oil tanker, though.
Well put.
What point? Did you really think Russia would come out unscathed from the SMO?
Putin and the Russian leadership have their heads on their shoulders and thanks to them we are not seeing an uncontrolled escalation that would lead to WWIII and possibly nukes flying both ways and vaporizing many metropolitan areas.
Why should that responsibility lie on solely Putins shoulder?
It should not but when you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you and don't mind seeing the destruction of others someone has to step up as the adult in the room.
>when you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you
When you are dealing with insane Russophobes that want to destroy you, you destroy them first.
You certainly don't allow them to launch hundreds of light cruise missiles deep inside Russia every day, with ever heavier payloads, and not knowing when those payloads will be nuclear.
Adults?
The significance of ”adults” is nile in this World. Either you have clowns and sheeps or leaders and wolwes.
If you meet a Russophobe that wants to destroy you regardless of consequences for others you certainly must kill that person instantly.
And there are no Russophobes. Phobia is a construction.
There is just Evil people trying to force another people into submission and slavery for the Globalist masters. They use propaganda and every means to achieve theirs goals. The minute they are your Master there is no ”phobia”around - they can even, with a gentle smile, invite you to clean their toilets.
Crazy like a fox, apparently, if all the adults pretend it isn't happening. But for all their talk, are they really crazy? Take some pimp like Mertz or Trump: they sacrifice their countries' well-being, but they personally make out like bandits while the adults in the room make sure they get to keep doing it. Consensus seems to be that appeasement wasn't right for Hitler; why would it be right for Trump?
It doesn't. That's what people seem to not understand. War decisions are in the hands of the military and the political advisers surrounding Putin, not Putin himself.
Blatantly false.
Last month Lukashenko said that the military went to Putin with detailed decapitation strike plans, and Putin vetoed them.
Also, do you seriously think the strict order to not fire against fired on first that was in place in the initial weeks of the SMO, and which doomed much of the war effort subsequently, came from Gerasimov and not from Putin? Please...
P.S. Note that when I rant against Putin, it is not just the man himself -- it is the collective of Putin and the oligarchic influences around him that appear to be doing a controlled demolition of Russia.
So you mean the General Staff is to blame? And the advisors? Putin is lured into appear amable and taking it on the chin?
Reasoning in Abes way leads to failure and premature death for Russians.
He’s the adult in the room, maybe?
There a lot of adults in the room. But many of them are behaving irresponsibel.
Do you really think the US would throw ogrines at Russia, risking its own demise, just to protect the unruly dwarves of Eutope? If that happened, it wouldn't be the US anymore, but a slave of the EU, maybe in the year 6098.
Restraint is not weakness. A blow struck is strength expended at the risk of greater retaliation. Russia strongly desires to confine operations to pursuing the goals of the SMO. If Russian leaders were as stupid as ours, the world we know would evaporate.
Idiots will continue to poke the bear with dry sticks, imagining themselves out of reach. The bear will stay low and slow, and focused on its immediate aims. Stupid dwarf trolls will mince and preen. It will not matter.
Art of Stupidity more apt. Lord Haw Haw levels of “sophistry” or Tokyo Rose , and about as effective.
If they feel a real need to, the Russians will strike. But they are winning without resorting to this escalation. They can ignore the frothy mouthed Russophobes in NATO: All bark and no bite (or all fur coat and no knickers, if you prefer).
>All bark and no bite
Who does that refer to?
Because I have heard plenty of talk from the Russian side but zero action.
Meanwhile NATO is striking Russia with impunity.
>If they feel a real need to
There is a very real need, because Russian deterrence is completely destroyed, and can only be restored by wiping whole countries off the map.
Work through the decision tree.
Let's say Finland feels like launching drones towards Murmansk, St. Peterseburg, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, etc. It's actually not even a hypothetical, they already did it on numerous occasions. What does Russia do?
1) Pretend it didnt't happen. Which is what it did in real life, but that only opens you up for more strikes
2) Launch conventional strikes on Finland. Which will not in any way take Finland out, because Finland has been preparing for many decades for something like this and is well dug in, thus such a move will only open another interminable war of the same kind as in Ukraine, but this time it won't be Donetsk, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Saratov, etc. that are bombed daily, but St. Petersburg and the rest of the Russian northwest.
3) Wipe most of Finland off the map with nukes, move in and occupy the land, finish off the survivors.
Only the last option solves the problem.
But if Russian leadership has taken it off the table, then we are left with the first two outcomes.
Which means that anyone can launch strikes into Russia if they feel like Russia won't dare fire back and/or they have been sufficiently politically captured to be another kamikaze.
And that is the permament state from here on, until someone gets the Option #3 treatment above and nobody else dares even think about it again.
Or there are conventional strikes against the source of the problem, not the kamikaze proxies, of the kind that would make the source of the problem think twice before continuing with the current course.
you're a fucking nut. You people have nothing left of value to offer anyone, except maybe what it feels like to make gigantic, disastrous foreign policy mistakes. The world knows this.
How about you actually address the points I made rather than calling me a nut?
Let's have another example -- a lot of the drones that now fly towards the Urals come from Kazakhstan. We know that because:
1) They often appear out of nowhere, with no sightings of any drones for hours in the space between Ukraine and Orenburg/Bashkiria/Udmurtia/Perm/Chelyabinsk prior to that.
2) Even the longest-range Ukrainian drones can only get there only if the 100-kg warhead is replaced with additional fuel
3) Recently a crashed drone was found near the border inside Kazakhstan, and it was an FP-1 drone. But FP-1 drones only have a range of 200 km.
4) Even Lavrov called it out publicly back in July.
But Lavrov called it out for another reason, which he mixed up with the heavy drones -- in mid-June there was a Ukrainian DRG armed with FPVs that tried to enter from Kazakhstan and seize the Russian ICBM silo base in Orenburg. Yes, you read that right. It was almost completely hushed because of the strategic implications of it, but after that Lavrov called the Kazakhs out about drones being launched from their territory and "expressed hopes it will never repeat again". Spoiler alert -- the attacks not only continued, they expanded, as that was before any drones had reached Perm, Udmurtia and Chelyabinsk yet.
Because why not? What cost had been imposed on the Kazakhs, and what realistic threat were they under? None.
And Kazakhstan is even more dangerous for Russia than Ukraine, because all the truly strategic objects in Russia are lined up along the Kazakh border -- during Soviet times that was the deepest, most untouchable rear. Now it being that hinges on Kazakhstan remaining a friendly state. Which is no longer the case -- Kazakhstan signed a military cooperation agreement with the UK (!!!) earlier this year...
I'll address them. You have lost the war. The war was never anything but naked US/EU imperialism backing the nastiest, most vile elements available. Your diplomatic and military reputations are in tatters.
You would be right -IFF- the NED were being successful in Kazakhstan.
Escobar says "no way"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyd8Uy17oWk
China kicked the NED out of Xinjiang. Russia saved Kazakhstan from a coup (I think it was 2 years ago). The BRI is rapidly expanding across Central Asia. HSR has made it to Tehran. The INSTC is being realized (although the US occupation of the Zangezur corridor may represent a problem for the land route). The US is going to waste billions trying to set up Rare Earth processing which is going to take a decade to reach useful levels. Venezuela is going to be Americans next Vietnam. China has alternate sources for the food it needs. Aircraft carriers are quickly becoming obsolete.
There is absolutely nothing to be gained by Russia entering into a more aggressive Kinetic War.
I can't believe I have to repeat this on this Simplicius article.
Escobar has no idea what he is talking about.
I am continuously amazed by the inability of people to compare real world outcomes with predictions and analysis and then draw conclusions about who is realiable source of information and analyst, and who is not.
We have been listening to these people for years, that is a large enough sample size.
The facts are:
1) Kazakhstan signed a military cooperation agreement with the UK.
2) Drones started flying from there into Russia even before that. Sporadically at first, but after that agreement was signed, it ramped up.
3) After that there was also an attempted small-scale ground incursion aiming to capture the Russian ICBM base in Orenburg
4) Lavrov publicly called the Kazakhs out.
5) Nothing changed -- drones continued flying from Kazakhstan into Russia, hitting refineries, chemical plants, metallurgy, defense manufacturing, etc.
6) Then the *-stans went to DC all together. Extremely ominous.
7) Then Tokayev went to Moscow and just because he went to Moscow some people decided that eternal true friendship will be the norm from here on. But in fact pretty much every day since then drones have again flown from Kazakhstan.
8) All throughout, and since before the SMO even, Kazakhstan has been carrying out de-Russification policies very reminiscent of what was going on in Ukraine two decades ago.
P.S. Is Escobar even aware drones are flying from Kazakhstan into Russia? I don't think I have ever heard him mention it. If he isn't, then, well, what is there to even say about his reliability as a source?
You underestimate Putin. Against all western opinions odds he play's this Chess the same way the Chinese would do. Long Term Solutions matter, not the quick win like they were looking forward in Vietnam and Afghanistan and had to run with their tail between their legs. The Sun rises in the East and goes down in the West.
There is no need for drama. Finland will slowly or not so slowly learn the reality of cutting itself off from its natural trading partner and quietly decline back into northern economic irrelevance.
Sooner or later the Finns and the Swedes will understand why they were not permitted a referendum on ending a long and sucessful policy of neutrality and that their leaders are thinking of jobs in Brussels etc and not the welfare of their voters.
Delusional idiocy.
The Finns are irredeemable Nazis, the only cure for which condition is measured in kilo- and megatons. If they were ever going to understand anything, we would not be here.
Read Medvedev's essay on Finland from a few months ago.
It lays it out quite well.
https://tass.ru/opinions/24989035
Seriously, seek medical help as soon as possible
Sometimes it works.
GM's strategy for everything is to proceed directly to WWIII and the nuclear apocalypse.
I'm almost certainly wasting my time here, but I'm not banking on the 1% chance that GM isn't a schizoid and is amenable to reason, I'm talking to the rest of those here, who I presume don't have an Armageddon fetish.
If you're playing a game where you have a 51-49% advantage, or even a 60-40% advantage, then you don't go all in and risk everything on a single turn of the cards or roll of the dice.
Russia and the East have the advantage here, so they're playing multiple small stakes games over a long period and still maintaining the escalation dominance.
A war of attrition is the correct strategy.
He is a neocon propagandist. Probably paid. He is pushing their narrative. Russia is losing and is desperate to strike back. It serves 2 purposes. To increase pressure on Putin to do something stupid. Strike a NATO country. Failing that set the narrative for a false flag. US/NATO needs this to drum up support for continuing the war. What they really want is Romania and Poland to be the next cannon fodder.
Number 3, that’s the spirit behind Hiroshima and Nagasaki isn’t it? You see, from GM’s point of view the Americans do know how to fight.
The Americans control most of the globe
The Russians don't even control their own land.
So yeah, it does look like the Americans know how to fight...
Who is this referring to? You, of course.
Be patient and thank your 'gods', the demons. 'Revenge is a dish best taken cold'. Russians know this. You do not.
You are so eager to have both sides launch a mass of nukes at each other.
Seems like you are eager to have many millions of people vaporized east and west.
If Russia sticks to winning where it counts, the west loses where it counts.
Hence the frantic feel to GM's comments these days.
Ahhh, those Nukes ! If they would make any Difference for one side to survive the Israeli would have used them already. But even those perverted Killers won't dare because they would be evaporated in response. Britain and the US already supplied depleted Uranium Ammo to both Irak and Ukraine which caused millions of people suffer but not instantly died. That kind of Nukes are already in use. So nothing new.
Try looking through the other end of your ukie telescope. It is Ukraine that is being destroyed at all levels. The Russian bear by comparison has a few mosquito bites. Fool
Once again, if NATO strikes on Russian infrastructure are no big deal, then why is Russia not striking NATO infrastructure?
You might want another go at that sentence, GM because you answer it yourself!
baloney... "NATO" is not hitting russian infrastructure, it is all Ukraine.
that is the charade
Why are you here, commenting? Why don't you go and enlist?
Maybe the Russian High Command will recognize your 'great ideas' once you've proven yourself on the battlefield?
that's what the Europeans want, so Russia must forego its own pleasure and its strikes outside of Ukraine. The day may come, but Russia isn't waiting for Europe to rearm to take what it needs for its security in Ukraine. By the time the Europeans work up the nerve to cold-bloodedly start WWIII, Odessa will be a highly fortified Russian port and Ukraine will ask permission to use it for grain exports. As for Poland -- there go its dreams of co-owning Odessa.
You answer your own question.
Because the NATO attacks are having such limited impact, Russia doesn't need to up the ante.
> Reports indicate that most Ukrainian troops in the pocket have no retreated to the north part of Mirnograd and are hiding in basements
Sly Simplicius' innuendo, equating Ukrainian troops to incels hiding from life in their mother basements. Although in the Ukrainians' case they are hiding from death
In cells - incels
Well, more time than due with the mother, it would also be the living death ..
> Not far to the west of that, Russia has made a surprise breakthrough in the Orekhove direction, capturing most of Mala Tokmachka, from whence Ukraine’s ill-fated 2023 counter-offensive had once begun
English here: there is a "from whence" above, but 'from' is redundant as 'whence' is already "from where"
The biggest 'redundancy' in the world is a common, vulgar Ukro-Nazi shill like you.
lol what did i do?
Heil there!
someone has to step in, otherwise "from whence" will spread like "irregardless" did, like a cancer in the mouth of every speaker.
Sadly if you become too permissive with regards to language and its rules, then you let free to develop monstrosities like valley girl accent and ebonics
Irregardless sounds like a good word to steal:-)
yeah, let's go
Then "Grunge" music would surely follow, bringing an end to all decency & goodness...
You mean what didn’t you do? You didn’t read this.
https://open.substack.com/pub/simplicius76/p/sitrep-111625-overblown-energy-strikes?r=1d5s28&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Stop with the negative attacks on the ‘Nazi’. Break your simple minded Jew programming - if you midwitts even can
Hello Frantic. Whence is an older term and mostly used, in my view, as more of an artistic application. It is an elegant word. I dug this up for you. Cheers.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/whence
Whence means "from what place, source, or cause." Does that mean that saying "from whence" is wrong?
Samuel Johnson certainly seemed to think so. In his 1755 A Dictionary of the English Language, he called from whence "a vitious mode of speech."
https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/is-from-whence-wrong
It's obviously the same redundancy problem that comes with "irregardless".
Besides, we should cherish whatever vestiges of declension still exist in the English language.
Adding "from" to "whence" makes the use of the declension "whence" superfluous, hence trivialising it
Language is important - we are losing that discipline as we are losing so much more culturally.
So to sum up: from whence is declension superfluous, irregardless of redundancy. Sleep well!
Doesn’t “whence” = “from where”?
Irregardless is self-contradictory. From whence is redundant. Not the same. Another fun one is used all the time by the British Premiere League (football) announcers -- 'just about'. To a Brit, it means that the action barely succeeded, and to an American means the action barely failed (the keeper just about kept the ball out of the net). As an American it is always kind of jarring to hear it employed in that way even though I know what it means.
Irregardless ~= without regard
"i+" prefix and "+less" suffix both express the concept of negation, lacking something, being without
Hence there is redundancy in "irregardless"
It's also self-contradictory as you mention, if we look at the word as composed of "ir+regardless"="not without regard" ?= "with regard" = "regardful" ??
Instead of pouncing on Simplicius' choices of rhetorical style deviations, you should rather be pointing at the ubiquitous pain-in-the-side lack of quality of those many blocks of subpar machine translations. It would be so much better to run the Russian/Ukrainian originals through ChatGPT and ask it for style adjustment to American newspapers. Requesting "Boston Globe", for example, makes these sources actually quite readable.
No I want to keep Simplicius on his toes. He's got great potential, and anything less than perfect form from him is a letdown
Then do some research in British and American literature, and you will find plenty uses of "from whence" — a 100 % correct English expression.
no, "from" is manifestly redundant and detracts from the elegance of the use of declension in "whence"
See GM? No need to agonize over nuclear war. Start an argument over English usage and WWIII will surely come.
Because many use the expression does not mean it is correct. Not certain, but I doubt you will find much use of the expression in literature before the 60s.
It may be archaic or dated, but it _is_ correct English.
"Whence" is archaic
"From whence" is a modern, mangling adaptation
Moderns are not familiar with declension in the English language
The declension here is: "whence" = "from where" (motion/cause from some point of origin)
Declension is used thoroughly in the German language, in Russian and in the other Slavic languages I know of, anciently in Latin as well, although among the Romance languages, it survives only in Romanian.
Usage of it got lost in modern English, probably in the process of Old English and Norman French mixing, and only the simpler features (of French in this case) survived.
Therefore, an English speaker not comfortable with using declension to express the concept of motion from a place ("whence"), should employ the more familiar preposition+noun/adverb construct ("from where").
When instead he goes with "from whence", he manages to botch both approaches at the same time
It looks like the Russian army is gearing up for a sprint to Zaporozhye and the City of Dnieper. I have no idea what kind of troop numbers they would need to make those pushes, but simply maneuvering into blocking positions at both of those cities would be devastating. Russia would be able to flank most of the eastern front from the southwest with a defensible line at the Dnieper river and those 2 cities.
What Russian sprint lol, it is like 6 months they are stuck assaulting Stepnogorsk, which following the Dniepr northward, is 5 or 6 settlements removed from Zaporizhzhia
Very insightful, it is of course the Ukrainian retreat breaking all records in the sprinting arena
The Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil infra may not be very effective, but the attacks on power stations seem to have more desired effects. Can't really hide power outages. Are they nuisance attacks? Maybe. But people notice instantly.
The way the attacks against the Ukrainian grid were mismanaged by Putin (has that man managed anything properly since he returned to office in 2012?) will go down as one of the biggest unforced errors in history. If it was indeed an unforced error and not part of the controlled demolition project that it seems to be. Only the conduct of the first month of the SMO rivals it.
Let's review the history:
1) Istanbul (which was grand treason on its own, but let's not revisit that right now) falls apart, and then Putin sits on his hands for six months as his army is whittling away due to attrition and lack of new recruits, refusing to mobilize, while the enemy mobilizes a million men.
2) Ukrainians begin to turn the tide, boosted by NATO weapons, first slowly in Kherson, then the collapse in Kharkov happens.
3) Then the first strikes on infrastructure happen -- first a dam on the Ingulets river is hit, then TPPs in Kharkov (likely not because they were TPPs, but because they were used as staging areas for equipment)
4) The Crimean bridge gets blown up on Saturday morning, October 8th 2022
5) Then Surovikin, newly appointed as commander, unleashes one of the few proper missile strikes on Ukraine on Monday, October 10th 2022. Some impressive hits in the center of Kiev, but mostly it was energy grid strikes. And we thought "They will finally shut it all down for good and win the war". Yeah, not so fast. Because:
6) The strikes continue with gradually diminishing intensity all the way to December, the Ukrainian grid is near collapse, but not pushed over the edge, then they are suddenly halted, and Surovikin is dismissed.
7) Then we have on-and-off strikes here and there, but the moment has, characteristically for Putin, been missed. Instead of shutting the grid down permanently, he gave them time to connect to Europe as a backup power supply source, reinforce substations, buy up all the spare transformers in the world, etc. etc. And he opened himself to reciprocal action.
8) Ukraine/NATO then begin striking refineries in Russia in early 2024. There is no meaningful response even though that sets an absolutely unacceptable precedent -- nothing should ever have been allowed to fly further than Belgorod without an immediate nuclear response, because that undermines completely the nuclear posture of the country.
9) The attacks on Russian refineries largely stop after that, but not the general drones strikes. And they are eventually renewed in mid-2025, leading this time to real fuel shortages.
10) Then in the last month NATO started striking TPPs and 330-kV and even 750-kV transformers. As far away as Vologda, Vladimir and Tatarstan. No response to that either.
Meanwhile Ukraine has still not been shut down for good.
So what was the end result of Putin initiating the energy infrastructure strikes back in 2022? Russia opened itself for strikes on its own infrastructure, while Ukraine has not been shut down in any meaningful way, plus nobody cares about Ukraine anyway.
Masterful 5D chess play by the cosmic grandmaster, isn't it? The only way to not see catastrophic incompetence here is to invoke grand treason and it being part of a controlled demolition program building off what Gorbachev did (who similarly successfully managed to mask his true intentions behind nice sounding rhetoric, and by the time people wised up to what was happening it was too late)
One thing that Putin's opponents in the West have gotten right, especially the Europeans, is that they have the measure of the man. They know him inside out - they know he is risk averse, slow to act, craves a deal, and is at heart a Europhile. Accordingly, the Boiled Frog strategy is perfect.
The mistake started on Day 1, invading with a weak force and assuming a deal would be forthcoming immediately. The man has always been a great tactician, but not a very good strategist.
I don't see good tactics either.
Also, he cannot be a strategist, it is not allowed under the current Russian system, or at least not strategy oriented towards winning and other significantly beneficial for Russia outcomes. The current system is rooted in the defeat in the Cold War.
Which is why for example, you have Nabiulina saying there will be a deep recession in Russia in the coming years and then making it happen herself with the self-sabotaging Central Bank policies she has put in place.
'They know him inside out - they know he is risk averse, slow to act, craves a deal, and is at heart a Europhile. Accordingly, the Boiled Frog strategy is perfect.'
This is precisely what the oligarchs thought about Putin until one day they were manipulated into meeting him in a house next to Moscow. The house happened to be the ex-home of Stalin.
Hmmm, risk averse? Putin took back Crimea with hardly a shot being fired in 2014. In 2022, in a few days, the Sea of Azov became a Russian lake and now controls access to the Caspian. At the same time the Russian army seized control of the biggest nuclear power station in Europe and dealt with the US lab threat. Putin is currently leading his country in the biggest war in Europe since 1945 with a front line twice the length of the Western Front in WW1. The West threatens to close the Baltic to Russian ships. Why don't they do it? Because it is outside the scope of the NATO treaty and they know that if they do, Russia can close the entrance to the Baltic, not with a dramatic blockade, just a few missiles. Ask the Houthis.
The West has now run out of weapons and money and is totally discredited. Diplomatically Russia China and Iran are immensely stronger than they were a few years ago. The Global South can hardly be impressed with the political, diplomatic and miltary prowess of the Western powers. The Bretton Woods world of 1945 is falling apart.
One wonders what Putin might get up to if he wasn't risk averse.
You write as though Putin is the sole decision maker and originator of all things Russia. This is not true. He is the FINAL decision maker but in the end responds to internal pressures just like any other political leader. And as time passes he is increasingly more and more isolated within his own administration as views harden. I've commented many times here and other blogs that Vladimir Putin is THE liberal faction of the Russian polity. Everyone else is to the right of him
Agreed, as per Sakwa, he is a powerful Chairman of the Board. BUT he still has to decide and does. Many political leaders try and avoid deciding at all costs - that way they can't be wrong... they hope.
Putin was clearly focusing on economic and cultural developments until 2022. This act created him the prosperity and popularity to face the NATO intrusion toward Ukraine. He has enough credit to finish this war and remain at the top position. Neither the Russian leadership nor the general population is looking to be in the middle of a nuclear war. It is the homicidal/suicidal maniacs of the West who are playing for planetary depopulation.
Russia reacted to the Maidan coup because they realized they could lose the whole Black Sea + Fleet. Reacted. No risk. They were forced to react.
2022, they reacted to Ukraines demands of entering NATO and getting Nukes to defend themselves. Reacted. No risk. They were forced, and I would say tricked/lured to react. The ISW-site was up and running the day after the Invasion. The sanctions and frozen/stolen assets was prepared in advance. What West didnt anticipate was the Ukrainian stubborn defense and blunders from the Russian side. The War was then created and formed as it took it own turns.
And if Russia continue to react they will soon be outsmarted.
The young Putin was hard. He took the fight with CIA and the Oligarchs - he took back the oil- gas and ore industry the first years of 2000. And saved Russia.
Before commenting on Russian military operations the first AND ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL source is Jacques Baud and his book “The Russian Art of War”. It’s like talking about the Gulag without reading Solzhenitsyn.
Also. Electricity and alternating current are complicated beasts. The demand must be matched by equal generation in a grid instantaneously all the time. Take of large group of consumers and you have over generation and frequency increase forcing you to take more generation off as protection. Take generation off, frequency reduces and you have to take load off. The problem is that those big adjustments are way to big and tend to overcorrect, leading to other imbalances, so in the end you have cascade effects and large spread blackouts. Then, taking capacity back online is not easy, as every generator in the grid needs to be made to match the frequency and phase of the grid, lest it be destroyed by excess currents
The addition of a small propulsion unit is an obvious upgrade to the glide bombs. I have been expecting to see this for months now.
I can't imagine the terror that these weapons induce. Russia has thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks). NATO has no defence against this very few comparable weapons.
Negotiations now! End the war. Save millions of lives.
>NATO has no defence against this very few comparable weapons
SHORAD can take them out, but most importantly, there is really no conceivable scenario in which NATO will have to defend against them.
Tactical nukes at this range will be delivered by Iskanders.
NATO has no answer to whatever they come up with, Ukraine is their one and only testcase and they are bleeding to death, enough sacrifice of Ukrainian drone fodder time to surrender. GM why don’t you put your nukes into the place where the sun never shines?
Open war between NATO and Russia will be much different than this proxy war. NATO is pretty much cornered into implementing combined arms maneuver, which it's been training and equipping for. FAB glide bombs AND tactical nukes would theoretically have a potential role, so you may want to extricate your comment from wherever the sun wasn't shining and recalibrate it.
"Would be", not "will" -- and let's hope it stays that way.
Agreed!
Vinny NATO is already in an open war with Russia and guess where? They’re tormenting and haunting their brains how to stop this Russian Bear which is for now only in a hibernating grinding meat mode, stop suggesting that NATO is preparing for war, they are in the middle of it, all their strategy experts, their think or dumps thanks, their financial contributions, their economic debts and social unwillingness to get involved in an exclusive elite cabal war and above all their powerlessness. Like NATO Russia isn’t left alone, China cannot afford it and don’t forget EU and NATO have everything to lose all their colonies, their Empires based on theft and sucking all their resources, the east can only win their self determination and above all the disposal of an enormous wealth on basic energies and rare earths, for some China owns 99%, all these the west badly needs for their hightech and advanced weapons, not to mention the progress of their economy.The sun I do hope shines for everybody but there are places where it shines more for some than for others, and it’s shining for the east now. My advice get more in the sun also the place where it usually doesn’t shine.
NATO isn't in an open war with Russia. NATO will avoid an open war with Russia. Even after Russia tames the three annoying and insignificant Baltic states by either arms or diplomacy the rest of NATO won't care that much.
There is still the belief amongst various ignoramus elites in the EU and NATO that sanctions are going to disrupt Russia and "turn the ruble to rubble". The Russian Federation can get along quite well without importing nails and knitting needles from former Soviet republics.
Yes, Russia and China have growing capacities of industrial production. The EU claims it wants to re-arm while deindustrializing. The West is really that stupid.
Know the facts! What was Secretary Nuland doing in Ukraine years before the Russian invasion? What did she mean when she said the CiA-DARPA biolabs were only there for research and not for development? Is there someone who believes what she said? How many billions pumped Biden into Ukraine knowing there was 10% for the Big guy, who could that guy be? NATO was already on Ukrainian soil before Putin marched in. EU is falling apart, how many small business but also mega corporations are closing their doors and not symbolic but now Chinese businesses are invading EU markets and this no EU company can compete with. The West is losing ground under their feet. Both are really needed, China as an alternative and equal economic partner and Russia to come to terms geopolitically with the EU, I don’t see any other option except eternal war.
Name the Jew problem if you want war to stop.
Paranoid delusional troll.
Go away Jew boy ‘don’.
My first comment applies here as well.
“82 percent of Israeli Jews support the idea of expelling the entire population of Gaza and nearly a half support killing them. 80 percent of Israelis say they are “not so troubled” or “not troubled at all” by reports of famine and suffering among the population in Gaza.”
Grok disabled automatic Hebrew translation bc the Jew does not want the goyim to know
So Russia and Putin are winning now contrary to your usual incoherent rubbish. Idiot
Nah... it's still a stalemate or something.
GM
<<<<<<SHORAD can take them out, but most importantly, there is really no conceivable scenario in which NATO will have to defend against them.<<<< NATO is using them in Ukraine. SHORAD hasn't been able to stop everything so far. In fact, all everyone on the ground can talk about is how it's failure to shape the conflict has changed the whole notion of peer to peer ground combat.
One of the main purposes of the glide bombs is to further defeat the western military iterations of SHORAD.
What exactly do you think the big consequential advantage of tactical nukes is? You keep talking about them like it's game over for whoever is receiving them once they are employed. Why is that?
Tactical nukes don't fit with Russia's current strategic objectives in Ukraine. What's more they are winning handily without using them so they seem unlikely to change their successful strategy.
To honest... thermonuclear weapons are very unlikely to be used. Russia can not afford the fallout and the EU knows they will be in the receiving end as well.
What worries me are neutron bombs. A thermonuclear weapon without the external layer of fissionable material. Neutron weapons are primarily fusion bombs with very little radioactive fallout but massive amounts of life killing charged particles... they will kill humans and animals alike. Insects too?
Indeed, neutron bombs are the nuclear equivalent of chemical warfare... and that worries me a lot. Using them would be catastrophic, but the demented globalist financial aristocracy in Western Europe won't care, they'll see this as the "least" loss to their wealth.
Are you hunting that the N bomb is OK if it is used to eliminate the German cockroach?
Liked because what you wrote is spot on.
A slight technical correction: " Russia has thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks) " should be " Russia has hundreds of thousands of them (old USSR gravity bomb stocks). "
Also interesting: Russia can also easily scale to build out gravity bombs by the hundreds of thousands per year. The remarkable thing about gravity bombs is they don't have to be anywhere nearly as precisely manufactured as, say, artillery shells. They can be primitive, imprecise castings filled with poured explosive and the glide kit takes care of adjusting away all imprecision.
The West is far too deluded to negotiate in good faith, so the carnage must continue. Sometimes there's no avoiding war!
When I was young, in the early seventies, I was a sports shooter. We trained three times a week at the shooting range of the Soviet military unit in our city. Of course, Russian soldiers were our regular visitors, and we were on friendly terms with several of them. When they saw how little ammunition we had and how we had to count every empty cartridge, they laughed at us. Then one of the guys went and brought a large cap of ammunition. When we asked if this would not be missing from some register, he laughed and said that the amount of ammunition that is kept in the warehouses is not enough to count. We learned then that when a Russian says that there is enough of something, our number can mean a gigantic, unimaginable number for average Europeans. The West has no idea what a terrible amount of military material the Russians have accumulated over time, with the largest raw material reserves on the planet and a huge production capacity behind them. I really hope that the stupid warmongering Western leadership will stop bragging about the edge of the abyss into which they now want to push the European peoples, again !
The Jew does not care how many goyim die. Solve the Jew problem to have peace in the world. Free Palestine free the world.
Dhdh
Germany solved your Jew problem as you suggest and it was more war like than any of the surrounding countries. There were an infinitesimal number of Jews in China and Japan in the pre second world war period and those countries killed each other by the millions. In fact, it took intervention by what you would call Jew dominated countries to step in (for their own reasons) and finally put an end to the slaughter. There were a tiny number of Jews in Iran and Iraq when they had their mass slaughter conflict for a number of years.
Edit: There were no Jews period in the pre contact native population of the America's but they had endless horrific wars, some of them on a pretty large scale over an extended period of time.
War is the result of tribalism. There was, is and always will be tribalism in human society.
Removed the Jew then Germany experienced a time of plenty and beauty. So the Jew declared war in 1933 and used its puppet empires U.S. uk Soviet to destroy it.
Same success occurred as when king Edward removed the Jew in 1280- the middle class thrived.
Defense of the Jew is being a traitor to your own race - goebbles (presuming you are not a chicken swinging g sin merchant defending your own tribe)
Are you a Jew ‘Ron’ ?
L.O.L
Yes. I am the product of a Judeo/Christian culture as is just about everybody on this board. Even if you, yourself, weren't born and raised in it, you are so immersed in the culture that you use the Judeo based value system and the language that expresses it. Your very condemnation of Judaism and seeking to see evidence all around you that fulfills your paranoid views is a moral classification world view that is founded on Judaic roots.
In the sense that you use the word, we are all Jews here. My ancestors, my immediate past family and myself all professed our faith based on an English translation of the Bible. We then supplemented that with the writings of a group of Jews writing about another Jew who expanded on the Bible. We call that the New Testament. Those two foundational texts have shaped Western culture. The terminology of condemnation that you use is reflects the morality and perception of reality that flows from those two texts.
And yes, your use of quotes around my name as a allusion to perhaps the Judaic influence over me is well put. Of course, the origin of Ronald is Aaron, the name of a number of notables in the Bible. But fortunately you are on the case. Uncovering another Jewish plot to foist Jewishness on the world along with names like Mary, Jacob and wait for it.....David.....
TLDR but Aside from the sky daddy nonsense - Judeo/christian is a false relationship spread by the Jew volcano demon foreskin for land demon worshipers who actually believe Christ is boiling in feces and spit on Christians.
Thanks for admitting you are a racial Jew
Until the leaders and generals, and their families (if the concept of "family" counts for crap anymore with these animals) start dying there will be no negotiations. No real negotiations.
Yes. Luigi the jew wherever it may be. Soros kushner blinken kagan all start to have accidents.
As ford said - remove the top 50 Jews and all wars stop.
These 'glide bombs' were invented during the Vietnam conflict and were called 'smart bombs'. Some spectacular video came out of Operation Desert Storm on CNN when Middle East Arabs and Western forces chased Sadam Hussein's army out of Kuwait. It was said that an operator could guide the glider through the doorway of a target building. Ordinary bombs have long been fitted with tail additions that turn a gravity bomb to a guided glider. The addition of the propulsion unit is to my knowledge a new and now obvious improvement which actually produces a hybrid between a common gravity bomb and a full air to ground missile. I am also reminded of the Japanese additions to their torpedoes dropped in Pearl Harbor to enable usage in shallow waters.
God bless Us All
Having followed the generational changes of the Russian glide bombs over the last three years I see a fundamentally different approach in design and cost between the US and Russia.
The US created very expensive glide bombs... yes, they are very accurate but their cost prevents the volume necessary. In many cases they are also guided by an operator, using laser designators, inertial and GPS guiding, etc... wonderful machines... and very expensive.
Russia, OTOH, started with extremely crude designs, stuff that could be strapped to a plain gravity bomb (of whey the have millions around?) and lobbed it into a self guided, of sorts, bomb. Over time they have improved their designs but they look to be on the simple side of things and producible in very large numbers.
I mean, adding a small jet to the bomb has to double, triple? the cost of the guiding package, huh?
Of course, there is the importance of range. The Russians can keep their cheap short range FAB in the tactical front while they use their more expensive versions for strategic offense...
IMHO, this war is a defining line. Even the fog that currently allowed the Russians to use their mixed weapons assault will soon not be an issue as cheap imaging devices that can see through the fog will be implemented.
Even as a drone is more expensive than a bullet or a grenade, the overall system cost is much lower. Delivering that bullet/grenade requires some infantry with all the concomitant expenses and risks. Delivering a grenade via a cheap drone is actually much cheaper, and often more accurate. Heck, they can deliver the drone through a window and a passageway...
War is getting cheap and more accurate.
The future of war is in unmanned vehicles. drone and cheap guided weapons.
God help us... the cost of waging very deadly wars on the cheap is upon us.
Up until now, the Aristocratic Classes held back on wars due to their very high costs.... now, wars are becoming cheap and automated.
Cogent observations. I learned something, thankyou.
God Bless Us All
Wait until they add nuclear propulsion, they'll be able to drop FAB 3000s on all European and US cities.
Hmm... the US and Russia do not need nuklear propulsion... we can already deliver megatons on each other and any one else that gets in the way.
Maybe if a couple of them could somehow go wayward and take care of the rich aristocrats in Europe... before we go at each other's throats?
I used to work in Kazakhstan in the oil refinery known as Tengiz located on the shore of the Caspian Sea. It was/still is a joint venture primarily between Chevron and the government of Kazakhstan (there are other western partners too) which was signed in the early 1990’s for forty years. All of its production goes through a large pipeline from the site in a Kazakhstan to the port facilities in Novorossisk where it is exported to world markets. The oil is from Kazakhstan and NOT from Russia.
So, attacks on those port facilities DO NOT reduce Russia’s oil production or export capacity. It is all oil from Kazakhstan.
826 / 5.000
Now I understand why the price of gasoline in Germany has risen by over 14 cents since Saturday.
Oil from Kazakhstan flows primarily to Germany and other European countries, where it reaches refineries via pipelines such as the Druzhba pipeline and by sea. The PCK refinery in Schwedt, for example, obtains some of its oil from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba pipeline to ensure security of supply.
Via seaports and pipelines: Kazakh oil also arrives by tanker at European ports such as Trieste (Italy) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). From there, it is transported via pipelines to end customers in various EU countries.
For refineries: The oil is delivered to refineries like PCK in Schwedt, where it is processed into various products such as diesel or gasoline.
And this war is being prolonged by subsidies from German and other European taxpayers. Wow - slavia!
Novorossisk is on the Black Sea. Just curious, is the refinery on the North Shore of the Caspian?
Tengiz is a very popular name from Türkiye into Kazakhstan. Mostly though I get pointed to a salt lake in the middle of Kazakhstan.
John! On a map of Kazakhstan, you will find the city of Atyrau just north of the delta of the Ural river, where it empties into the Caspian Sea on its north shore. The Tengiz oil field and refinery are located about 300km (as the crow flies) WSW of Atyrau and about 100km south of a town called Kulsary. In general, it is not located near to any settlement of significance - remote! Due to its location, a dedicated oil pipeline was built from Tengiz to the Black Sea (Novopossisk). It is owned and operated by the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) which was headquartered in Moscow.
I found Atyrau, but only 100m west and you are very much in Russia. I'm pretty sure you meant ESE, because if you go south on Sarykamy's Road from Kulsary, i found what looks like it could be a refinery.
About 500 miles from the lake. LOL. Interesting choice of names.
Thanks.
Funny that Chevron is still involved. Sure makes the Ukraine war seem even more insane than it is. Just one giant scam after another.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tengiz_Field
Yes, yes, you are quite correct, to the east. Should be 300km east-southeast from Atyrau. The settlement of Sarykamys (about 50km from the plant) was eventually evacuated and everyone resettled in Atyrau because of the air released by the processing plant. To the west, the distance to the border with Russia is actually 360km, to Astrakhan is 390km
Ah, a climate catastrophe! How interesting that is overlooked.
But then, I remind myself of East Palestine, Ohio and it isn't like the USA will do anything differently. <sigh>
Thanks for that tidbit!
I did some projects there, many years ago. My one experience in Kazakhstan.
The attacks on Russian oil-refinerys are of course exaggerated by the Ukrainians (and West). Neverthless, they are hurting and completely unneccessary to sustain from Russian perspective. They are made possible from UK/US resources which should be taken out.
Any other reasoning is treason.
The glide-bombs accuracy should be discussed. How is it possible to hit something in a 50 meter cirkle from 200km? Without guidance, just kinetic energy and alignment when released?
The first ones hitting 10-30km away was astounding, but 200 km…or 400km?
This fall and winter will hopefully be foggy all over the front so we can be home by Christmas.
I don't see why it can't be done, the guidance is the GLONAS system, released at high altitude and high velocity with the rocket as extra energy.
I think the rocket is needed for maneuverability also but question the hit ratio at such a distance.
” In 2025, Ukrainian forces reportedly began jamming Russian UMPK-equipped glide bombs, significantly reducing their accuracy. According to David Axe, writing for Forbes, jamming has forced Russia to use up to 16 bombs to hit a target. These countermeasures disrupt satellite guidance, undermining one of Russia’s battlefield advantages.”. From Wiki for what it is worth.
David Axe has lost all credibility cheerleading for NATO's flaky gear - he is Popular Mechanics grade info, at best. Even Wikipedia won't quote him.
Seriously, and I don't mean to be rude or dismissive, what David Axe (writing for Forbes) has to say about the accuracy of anyone's bombs and artillery isn't worth much.
And that's not a personal point about David Axe.
BUT, if he can explain how he reached the mathematical conclusion of "16 bombs to hit a target" then he can show his working, and explain it all in detail to the world.
Otherwise he's just another chattering mouth.
Could be D Axe is inventing ”western” facts. I wrote for ”what it is worth”. Obviously nothing.
I was more curious about the accuracy of the bombs when tossed those distances. Jamming the GPS is one thing. Lining up the aircraft and releasing the bomb at exact bearing and height is one thing 8 km from target and a whole other thing 80 km from target.
Kinzhals and Zircons are flying with pin-point accuracy, and you have the plasma problem to deal with there, so why would glide bombs have difficulties with guidance?
Ballistic missiles yes.
But we are talking about solid bombs with attached UMPK-kit, tiny wings and fins and no propulsions. Free falling bombs , lobbed from planes, and then gliding to the target area. The maneuverability cant be that extensive going through to the target and facing rain, strongs winds etc. GLONASS can be jammed.
”In 2025, Ukrainian forces reportedly began jamming Russian UMPK-equipped glide bombs, significantly reducing their accuracy. According to David Axe, writing for Forbes, jamming has forced Russia to use up to 16 bombs to hit a target. These countermeasures disrupt satellite guidance, undermining one of Russia’s battlefield advantages.”
And if we talk about 400 km for a glide-bomb you really have to propulse it with a jetmotor.
There is no practical difference in guidance acuity caused by increased range when supported by machine vision, terrain mapping and shielded satellite guidance.
There is no machine visions or terrain mapping in the UMPK-kit.
The bombs are throwed not propulsed, dude.
"The 400 km range can only be achieved with the use of jet boosters, which is the focus of current research" -- from what Simplicious posted above.
and?
I discussed with someone who thought all of these UMPK was propelled.
And with these 400km ”jet-boosted” throwed solid bombs with tiny wings and steering fins (steering with what?) my question was: how do you get accuracy?
Stay bemused, bemused.
Steering with what? How about air rushing past the control surfaces. Like an airplane. Those seem to steer pretty well.
:-)…you are funny. Or not. How do you alter the ”control surfaces”? With wishful thinking?
My understanding of those kits is that they have adjustable guidance through terrain mapping and satellite and, now, propulsion. They are pretty pinpoint - you don't get that accuracy from a fire and forget standoff weapon. Anyway my point is that however they do it, increasing the range won't impune its accuracy.
The commentariat here dont have insights in the law of physics…
The bombs are throwed/tossed and they are NOT equipped with terrain mapping (for what use would it be??). You have to toss it in the precise direction to the target, eg. bearing and probably adjust for winddirection (as snipers do). These glide-bombs loses height, they can never gain height, and cant turn at all. Just do small adjustments.
Doing this at a range of 400km…its revolutionary or fake.
Asked Grok and got this:
”To deliver a glide bomb equipped with a UMPK kit (or similar satellite navigation aid) accurately on target, the aircraft—typically a fighter-bomber like the Su-34—must follow a specific flight profile to maximize standoff range, ensure the bomb's wings can deploy post-release for gliding, and minimize exposure to ground-based air defenses. The process treats the munition as an enhanced gravity bomb that transitions into guided glide mode after drop. Here's how it works step by step:1. Approach PhaseThe aircraft approaches the release zone at medium to high altitude (typically 3,000–9,000 meters initially, climbing to 9,000–12,000 meters for release) and high subsonic speed (around 700–800 km/h or more).
It flies in a straight or slightly climbing path toward the target's general direction, often 40–70 km (or up to 100 km with advanced variants) behind the front line or away from the target to stay outside enemy air defense engagement zones.
Escorts (e.g., Su-35 fighters) may accompany for protection against interceptors.
Target coordinates are pre-programmed into the bomb's satellite navigation system (e.g., GLONASS-based) before takeoff or en route.
2. Release Maneuver (Loft or Toss Bombing Technique)To extend the bomb's glide range (up to 60–95 km or more, depending on the kit and bomb size), the aircraft often performs a "loft" or "toss" bombing maneuver:The pilot pulls up the nose sharply to a pitch angle of 30–40 degrees (or more in some cases), entering a zoom climb.
At the peak of the climb (when upward momentum is highest), the bomb is released from underwing or centerline pylons.
This imparts additional forward and upward velocity to the bomb, allowing it to follow a ballistic arc before gliding—essentially "tossing" it farther than a level-flight drop.
In simpler scenarios (shorter ranges), a level-flight release at cruising altitude and speed may suffice, but lofting is common for maximum standoff to avoid threats.
The bomb free-falls initially as a gravity munition, then its wings unfold automatically (via spring/pyrotechnic mechanisms) seconds after release, rotating the bomb if needed for proper orientation.
3. Post-Release PhaseImmediately after release, the aircraft banks sharply and turns away (often 180 degrees) to exit the area quickly, descending if needed to evade detection.
The bomb's guidance system activates: satellite navigation (with inertial backup) corrects the trajectory using control surfaces and fins, allowing it to glide precisely to the target over 7–10 minutes.
No further input from the aircraft is required, as it's fire-and-forget.
This method ensures the bomb hits with high accuracy (CEP of 10–30 meters) while keeping the delivery aircraft safe. Factors like wind, release altitude/speed, and bomb weight (e.g., FAB-500 to FAB-3000) influence the exact profile, but the loft technique is key for operational use in contested environments. ”
So I was right - its satellite guided and adjusts on the fly. Thanks for confirming.
"This fall and winter will hopefully be foggy all over the front so we can be home by Christmas."
I had no idea that you are serving on the "front" I have to ask who is the "we" that you talk about?? Or are you just another of my fellow Americans who sits and moralizes thousands of miles well out of harm's way??
Are you dumb?
”home by christmas” is a saying from WW1.
Who ”we” are is even more obvious.
We are the poor Russian soldiers dying at the front, the even sadder Ukrainians sacrificed for nothing, the civilians in Ukraine and abroad, the Russians all over Russia. We are also the guys and girls of Simplicius substack doing working hours to comprehend, discuss and making our voices heard in that sabre-rattling noise that has spread all over the World.
Just as I suspected. A fellow American who will sit and judge thousands of miles away and suddenly you are concerned with anyone who must suffer "real war" Guess what? You can say that crap all you want, your posts show your true feelings so go blow that nonsense out of your ass
"I’ve often harped on the fact that pro-Ukrainian voices use months-old strikes as ‘proof’ of the damage Russia is taking..."
To say nothing of the damage they claim that Russia is inflicting. Wiping out entire kindergartens for example, or attacking apartment buildings where the damage is clearly from their own failed air defence intercepts. Need a photo of a destroyed Russian T-72? No problem, just paint a Z on the side of one of your own, right over the dirt even. No one will notice. Then there was that photo that showed a bunch of destroyed cars right next to an apartment block with not a shattered window on any of the apartments and no burn marks on the ground.
I believe them when they say Russians hit a hotel though, because you can be sure it wasn't a wedding or bar mitvah happening there. Only the best accommodation for our brave NATO warriors. Well, you got what you paid for, or at least what you deserved.
I am very much looking forward to the total capitulation of the terrorist state ukraine with zelensky and his evil ilk either dead or facing life sentences.
Didn't look like you were, back in Minsk in 2014 and 2015
"I am very much looking forward to the total capitulation of the terrorist state"
The moment that happens, NATO nations quickly suffer economic shock & collapse - Their central banks bought Ukrainian government bonds as security for hundreds of billions in loan guarantees.
Incredible. Morons.
Also, several major corporations like Blackrock who invested heavily in a potential Ukrainian win.
Blackrock and chums also have the UK and other NATO member governments by the balls. If a change of policy or leadership happens, they get quietly reminded the Blackrock cartel will stop buying their government bonds.
Minsk? You have me confused with someone else good sir, but top of the morning to you.
turns out very few people got my pun..
The wave of public truth telling (and I am not denying it is the truth) is not evidencing a sudden about-face amongst the Ukrainian zealots although there is a slow slide in the vigour of the death wish here. It is about throwing the kitchen sink at getting NATO to intervene directly in the air and on the ground. It is a threat to the west that Ukraine is not going to keep throwing itself onto this pyre unless the west gets real about fighting the Russians. It is the penultimate paragraph to the end one which goes like this
-we were not defeated by Russia. We were betrayed by our allies.
You can guess where this leads......
Fresh out break of panic amongst the western leading non entities not sure which way to run- because no way is NATO going to get stuck into this lost war now, and go down with Ukraine. Although if Paris, Berlin, the Baltic frontline and the odd US aircraft carrier want to burn they could lob some serious missile damage at Russia and see what a final total loss of patience looks like.
I have been saying this from the beginning. We used the Ukrainians as tools, in bad faith, and they will repay us for tricking and betraying them.
Who are “they”?
The hired fag and his government? The slaughtered priests and their burned churches?
The ordinary Ukrainians.
If they were too utterly stupid and gullible to not understand the clear warnings of dozens, hundreds even, of credible interlocutors that NATO's games would definitely get them demolished while their oligarch overlords made billions, they will also be too stupid, not to mention just plain dead, to have the wherewithal, resources or motivation to make ANYONE 'pay'.
The most hopeful outcome for the the Ukrainians is that they end up like the Chechens: brought to Russian heel, militarily euthanized and as well-fed as they are obedient.
Brave man Vinny. I'm guessing you don't live in a country where dissent gets you death in a front line trench? Or a country filled with millions of Ukrainians? Such a brave man.
It was clear from the beginning that Ukraine was to be used as an expendable battering ram. It is even more clear that the USA, NATO et al have been meddling in Ukraine for a very long time. In a sense, Ukraine is meeting its destiny and given that it’s not really one big country anyway there is room for “adjustment”….
I'll make it simple. The West is having found a new Religion that has nothing to do with JC or any other man that speaks in the Name of you know whom.
The Religion is about the Black Cat
As Oscar Wilde said decades ago:
Religion is when a blind man walks into a totally dark room to find a black Cat ..................................... And finds it !
That about sums it up where we are today.
I thinks Confucius said it better, "it's hard to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if it isn't there"
This winter will be horrible for Kyiv. I know from a friend there that they're lucky - getting electricity for 2 hours/day, some have none at all, and are lucky to have water. Poor regular folks.
Of course, we tend to forget these "regular folks" in Western Ukraine and even Kiev hate Russia intensely and wish for little else than Russian blood. I only feel for the kids caught up in all this and being brainwashed daily by the nazis.
My friend is not like that. She is not a fanatic. She got no illusions. It's much harder for non-fanatics. She didn't leave Kyiv because her husband is of draftable age and can't leave, so she stayed.
My wife also has a couple of friends in Kiev also much in the same situation. So certainly we can never say all people feel that way. It is a tragedy any way one chooses to look at it - so many people must suffer for the greed of a few.
Agreed.
And it has always been so.....will it ever change?
Nope.
It’s always tough for people with few illusions
Unfortunately when nations are swept up in the tides of war brought on by the moneyed few, suffering and death are widespread. But the fact of the matter is that Ukraine is being used a disposable proxy, and as such there are consequences. These are to beaten into the population and will echo for generations. It has always been so, we in the pampered west have merely gotten out of touch with this brutal reality. That too is about to change…
They will have to settle for Russian fire instead of blood, which will cool their jets whether they like it or not. The Russiaphobia is manufactured - it can be dismantled and ameliorated.
For many, yes, over a generation or two. But for those in and around Galicia, probably never.
Since Zelenskii and his cronies will be snug and well-fed, why should they care?
Ok, more serious now. I believe that we're looking for another longer period of Wars, Conclicts, Up-and Downrisings and Totalitarism, Censorship and Arrests. Most Westerners either have no idea or are totally ignorant what's about heading to them (like Digital ID or Agenda 2030) like a War coming right to their own Home doorstep.
Germany in Particular has a History where a 30 year War left scars but the next Generation simply said : Get over it ! heading for a short period of Peace before the Shit hit the Fan for the next War and the next War ... now heading for WWIII.
In that respect i would possibly feel safer in North Korea than in German, Berlin.
These wars are only one tool the international bankers are using to further their efforts at world domination.
Crash the temple on everyone…then hard reboot with more controls in place….rinse, repeat.
Thank you so much for the updated analysis!!!
"Well, it seems the smart-alecks are finally waking up."
We'll know when the masses start voting in anti-War right wing parties such as AfD.
Traditionally Right Wing parties have not been anti-war.
So I am not sure it's wise to take their rhetoric at face value.
Look at Trump, the self-styled anti-war candidate.
It is incredible that people still think the world can be understood by this dichotomy right vs left.
Do tell?
It's incredible to me that people don't see the absolute centrality of Class in politics.
But happy to hear your views mate
Bi-polar social engineering is a helluva drug.
I want to know who bubba is. ‘Trump blew bubba’.