SITREP 10/26/24: Zelensky Begs Grid-Strike Trade as 'Dark Winter' Looms
The most interesting Ukrainian news of the past week was Zelensky’s sudden floating of a ‘compromise’ wherein both Russia and Ukraine would stop attacking each other’s energy grids. What’s most eye-opening about this is it seems to reveal the actual true purpose behind Ukraine’s campaign of the past year or so of striking Russian oil refineries, etc. Rather than aimed at actually crippling Russia’s infrastructure—an unrealistic proposal—it seems the whole time to have been aimed at desperately stopping Russia from crippling Ukraine’s infrastructure and plunging the country into the stone age, as many have expected to happen this coming winter.
Zelensky plainly states:
Zelensky, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that he wants to offer Russia... stop firing at each other's energy facilities-well, before winter. It looks like this is the beginning of his "peace plan". Earlier, he made similar statements before the invasion of the Kursk region. It seems that in Kiev they are completely disconnected from reality - they believe in their propaganda and see themselves as the navel of the earth.
now the truth comes out. strikes on russian infrastructure were all about getting russia to stop finishing off ukraine’s entire energy industry.
But here’s where we can tie the threads together.
In the aftermath of the BRICS summit, Putin gave a short interview wherein he restated Russia’s current position on negotiations, with a noteworthy detail (second statement from the actual summit also included below):
First, he states that Russia is ready to negotiate based on current realities. Translation: this means the currently controlled territories are non-negotiable. Putin reaffirms this by again openly stating that on this particular issue there will be no concessions made nor any “exchanges”. The exchanges is clearly in reference to Zelensky’s previously-voiced plan to “exchange” the Kursk territories for Russian-controlled territories in the Donbass.
However, Putin then goes on to surprisingly say he’s open to some “reasonable” compromises—but what could those possibly be?
One clue is offered in this newly published but unverified text:
"Secret Chancellery" (Taynaya kantselyariya):
"According to our information, the Kremlin is discussing the format and date of the publication of a new ultimatum to Ukraine to begin the negotiation process and discuss detailed points of the peace track with the West.
Putin will personally voice a new proposal to stop the conflict in Ukraine after the US presidential elections, and two different versions of the text are being prepared. One text is for Trump's victory.
He will be offered a relatively soft version, which will preserve a certain amount of room for maneuver for the Republican (in particular, on the issue of the sanitary zone and demilitarization of Ukraine - these aspects can be quite flexible). The second text is for Kamala Harris' victory.
The Democrat will be given a tough ultimatum (according to our information, in addition to the withdrawal of troops from 4 new regions, demilitarization and denazification, Ukraine will be required to create a large sanitary zone along the border perimeter, 150-200 km, where no military infrastructure will be allowed).
The Kremlin is strengthening its negotiating positions by playing the "Korean card". Earlier, we also predicted that if the Ukrainian conflict continues, the likelihood of signing an agreement with Iran similar to the DPRK is growing. This measure will have to limit the US capabilities in relation to Tehran.
Considering the fact that Russia and NATO do not want to enter into direct confrontation with each other, the parties will look for hybrid response options in different regions of the world.
This is why the risk of activating the "Transnistrian card" is growing: each side will try to get as many chips as possible before the final game. Thus, the Ukrainian story is becoming the culmination of the geopolitical confrontation at the current stage."
I think such an ultimatum can be voiced by Putin, but I think that neither the West nor the Ukrainian government will be able to agree to such conditions. Even considering that neither the West nor Ukraine will comply with this, having accepted it. The West will not agree to this, even considering such peace as a respite for further rearmament in order to continue the war with Russia.
The very fact of accepting Russia's conditions would mean the West's refusal to play the role of hegemon in the world. There are no grounds for this. The West has still not been defeated by anyone. In turn, Russia cannot agree to less. Russia will never agree to the West's militarization of Ukraine. Therefore, Russia's peace plans are unfeasible and the war will continue until Russia's complete victory in Ukraine.
According to them, Putin will offer Trump a ‘softer’ negotiating position in order for Trump to save face and be able to stop the war on slightly more favorable conditions, while Kamala would be offered what sounds mostly like the Istanbul deal.
In both cases the non-negotiables appear to be that: Russia keeps all four new regions—Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson. But there is potentially flexibility on how deep the demilitarization goes and how big the “buffer zone” on the northern border would be.
Many will say this sounds completely bogus, and you’re well within your right. But recall the video I just posted where Putin himself openly states he’s willing to make “reasonable compromises”—so isn’t that what this sounds like?
However, we can’t necessarily take these things at face value. Recall that Russia is under some pressure—even if it may not be genuine—by allies to seek peace at all times. Even during the BRICS conference major allies like China expressed their wish for Russia to seek a peaceful resolution; however those vocalizations may very well be performative in nature. Everyone knows they must put on a facade and appear to outwardly seek peace even if the true aims are more maximalist.
So in this case I still suspect that Putin may be playing the accommodating peace-maker when in actuality he knows full well that the terms cannot possibly be met by Ukraine. In short, it’s the classic poison pill offer meant to give the appearance of genuine effort when in reality there’s little chance of acceptance. Why would there be little such chance? I’ve explained many times before: because the terms surrounding just the issue of the four regions themselves are extremely unrealistic for Ukraine to abide by: they would require Ukraine to fully abandon control of both Kherson city on the right bank of the Dnieper and Zaporozhye city, a massive industrial center nearing 1 million population in size. It is simply unimaginable that there exists a political process in the Ukrainian state that would somehow realistically allow such an unprecedented concession. Hell, Zelensky still as of this week even clings to 1991 borders as a red line, let alone this.
But that’s where another interesting aspect comes in: there were some signs that the long ago discussed plan to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny could still be in play. Last week’s Daily Telegraph article made a big deal about Zaluzhny having changed his tone surrounding the reclaiming of lost territories. From the article:
General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and a former commander-in-chief of its armed forces, this week hinted that Ukraine could accept a peace deal that saw it give up some of its land to Russia.
Asked in London on Thursday if he could imagine a victory without getting all the lost territory back, he said: “I didn’t mention territories. I mentioned safety, security, and the feeling of being in one’s own home.
That is a subtle, but profound shift in official rhetoric which previously insisted on no peace until all of Ukraine was reclaimed.
That means when the moment comes, if Zelensky is not being amenable, he will be replaced with the guy that is. However, that could still be a very long way’s away as it’s difficult to do that in a fast kinetic way, but rather more realistic putting pressure on Zelensky to hold an official election at which point Zaluzhny would be brought in and win in a landslide.
And how is Ukraine’s situation on the front, which is pushing Zelensky into such extreme offers?
Firstly, it is now being officially admitted in Ukraine that mobilization is badly down:
The pace of mobilization in Ukraine has decreased, - said the representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vasyl Rumak.
According to him, several months ago, 35 thousand mobilized people were simultaneously undergoing training in training centers, now this figure has dropped to 20 thousand.
Remember, a while back it was 30-35k recruits per month, having spiked after the May mobilization announcement which brought the age down to 25. It was said this number was either just breaking even with losses, or already causing a net monthly loss. Now it’s down to only 20k per month recruits—so if the total losses are still near ~30k+, there will definitely be a net decline at this point.
This is confirmed by the likes of Rob Lee and co:
The Hromadske article quotes Ukrainian MP Kostenko with calling for ‘radical measures’ to take place:
Meanwhile, MP Roman Kostenko recently stated that the level of mobilization has decreased after several months of operation of the law. Therefore, he believes that it is necessary to take "radical" measures — for example, to reduce the draft age.
Behind the scenes there are more and more rumors that one of the reasons the West is so stingy with providing further large-scale aid is because it does not see the full-breadth commitment from Ukraine in lowering the mobilization age down to its limit of 18. There are constant whispers about a kind of exchange of promises: if and when Ukraine lowers the age, then Europe will feel assured of the war’s continuation and be able to provide further armament.
This brings up the logical progression: if Trump wins and cuts Ukrainian aid in 2025, Ukraine will be forced to take the radical step of lowering mobilization age at which point Europe will rally around this boost and use the major flood of new Ukrainian recruits as some PR ‘rebirth’ moment to try and sell the prolonging of the war. The problem is, the longer the war goes on that track, the quicker Ukrainian society and economy both collapse from taking the remainder of the men out of the pool.
This week the collapse of the front has again accelerated, with several settlements falling and others nearing to completion.
Gornyak has finally been captured by the DPR’s 114th Brigade—just days ago this town had not even been entered yet:
Meanwhile, Selidove is said to be 95% captured and as of this writing there are even reports it has finally been totally overwhelmed:
And for those who might think these are some form of controlled collapse or planned retreat on the AFU’s part, this will be an interesting read. The article details precisely how Gornyak collapsed under the strain of mad scrambles, panic, and disorder in the AFU, which included threats of kinetic retaliation between neighboring hostile units. As has often been the case, Russian forces attacked precisely during a brigade ‘rotation’, leading to utter confusion and seeming betrayal on the Ukrainian side as the 210th Battalion received no help from a new brigade it was reassigned to ad hoc.
The most interesting moves are being made in the south on the eastern-Zaporozhye or western-Donetsk line. Russia is activating this line more and more to pincer the whole Kurakhove basin just as I had described several reports ago.
Now there has been a sudden shock surge toward Shaktarsk, with the area circled below being captured in a day or two, as well as the area just under Bohoyavlenka:
Video at geolocation 47.808860 37.043634 with a large armored assault by the 40th Pacific Fleet Marine Brigade:
The reason that’s important is if you’ll recall Russian Marines had just captured Levadne to the west of Velyka Novosilka, the main stronghold seen above. That means as we had stated, a slow envelopment of Velyka Novosilka from both sides is being prepared:
And in general this entire area, which is a little west of Ugledar, has seen a lot of steady advancement. If you take a look at Ugledar now the area of control is unrecognizable as Russian forces have broadened their control on every side of the fortress city.
It’s clear that a general motion to collapse the entire Kurakhove basin is proceeding:
Even Russian troop channels are in shock at the speed of the Shaktarske collapse. The below communication states at least two lines of defenses were built just south of Shaktarske, but Russian forces passed them quite easily “as if they were empty”:
The speculation has been that Ukraine is so short on men they’re forced to pull them from previously inactive areas like this one, allowing Russians to capitalize.
This goes for Selidove as well, where Russian troops had only just entered from the east and begun assaulting it days ago—yet AFU forces merely abandoned it and scrammed out the other side. Although that likely has more to do with it being enveloped on all sides, but it could still be exemplary of troop shortages. In other cities like Toretsk, Ukraine still puts up a bitter fight.
This map from Suriyak is dated October 20th, when Russian troops had only just begun entering Selidove:
Now today, again—and you can see that it is a sizeable city with about 70% the population of Avdeevka, for comparison:
Look how many streets and blocks it has—to cover all that in less than a week is quite a feat and a clear sign of Ukraine’s ongoing collapse.
One other interesting possibility to note: you may recall Russian forces had recently probed along the west Zaporozhye line toward Zapo city itself, and there have been rumors of other build ups on that front. Now in light of Putin’s recent statements and other negotiations talk we can extrapolate that perhaps in the near future Putin intends to strike out toward Zaporozhye city to bring Russian forces much closer to it, if not to its very borders as a kind of negotiations pressure to make the possibility of giving up the city more palatable, since its impending assault would be quite palpable.
Likewise, the North Korean scare may be designed for such an effect as well. This is very speculative and questionable, but just for the sake of argument, we can theorize that Putin could create the threatening sense of a huge allied effort in order to break Ukraine’s spirit and eventually force a surrender. MSM now reports that after the initial batch of “2,000 North Korean soldiers” Russia is allegedly preparing to receive another massive 10,000-man grouping.
The West has responded by threatening to send their own troops—for instance infamous German Defense Committee Chair and resident loon Strack-Zimmerman has called to counter the NK troop threat with NATO troops in Ukrainian uniforms—meanwhile US Rep Mike Turner calls for “direct military action”:
But this may be the best take, from Legitimny channel:
#layout
Our source reports that the topic of soldiers from the DPRK Zelensky disperses not only for pressure on Western partners in the case of increasing arms supplies, but also to justify a future decline in mobilization age in Ukraine.
He will say this to the Ukrainian people: look, Putin from the DPRK carries tens of thousands of assault troops, we urgently need to reduce mobilization to 20-22 years, otherwise we will lose.
—
Two headlines give us the pulse of the Western commentariat:
Of course, there’s also the other side of the coin, absurd as it may be:
—
Some last updates and items:
A week or so ago there was another exchange of bodies between both sides, with Russia receiving 89 deceased, and Ukraine a whopping 501:
Rezident channel broke down the Ukrainian dead as having been killed in the following regions:
- 382 of them died in the Avdeevka direction;
- 56 - in Bakhmut;
- 45 - in Maryinsky;
- 7 - in Lugansk;
- 6 - at Ugledarsky;
- 4 - at Zaporizhzhya.
In a previous article you’ll recall I listed all the recent exchanges as follows, which I’ll update with the new one:
May 31 exchange: 45 Russian bodies vs. 212 Ukrainian bodies.
June 14 exchange: 32 Russian bodies vs. 254 Ukrainian bodies.
August 4 exchange: 38 Russian bodies vs. 250 Ukrainian bodies.
October 18 exchange: 89 Russian bodies vs. 501 Ukrainian bodies.
This now totals 204 vs. 1217 in Russia’s favor. That makes a ratio of 1:5.9 or about 1 Russian loss for every 6 Ukrainian losses. That is very close to the ratio previously given by Putin:
—
There’s now a lot of talk about the EU giving Ukraine a big tranche of money taken from captured Russian funds. In reality, the fine-print detail I’ve read is that it’s not taken from the actual stolen Russian money, but rather the ‘profit’ from the funds’ accumulated interest is used as “collateral” to materialize these new funds—essentially as secured loans—to Ukraine. In effect, it’s just a phony shell game to make it sound like Russian funds are paying for it when in reality they’re not.
—
Massive swarms of Russian Geran drones have been hitting Ukraine for the past couple weeks. Some have been captured on video which show the unprecedented scale of the attacks:
On top of that the first ever video of a Geran with electro-optical cameras striking a Ukrainian energy substation in Sumy—recently the drones have been increasingly equipped with such cameras for surveillance purposes so that as they crisscross the country they can also gather valuable intelligence:
First ever STRIKE footage of the Geran-2 armed with E/O cameras which are now becoming widespread:
This kamikaze drone was first shown during Vladimir Putin’s visit to the “Special Technology Center” site in St. Petersburg.
In the video, the drone with a camera targeted a substation in the Sumy region.
Such drones will begin to hunt air defense systems, mobile fire groups and air defense positions. RVvoenkor
A previous video released days earlier showed another camera-equipped Shahed merely overflying territory:
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Scholz himself admits that Ukraine cannot enter NATO while in a state of war:
Meanwhile German TV again says Ukraine cannot be allowed to lose because of the vast riches of minerals it possesses:
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We finally have the first ever true definitive proof that Russia’s 5th gen stealth Su-57s are being used in the war. A video has appeared showing an Su-57 fully armed with the new Kh-59MK2 missiles:
National Interest even did a piece on it:
It’s been reported the Su-57s have been particularly active around Crimea and the Black Sea, launching these missiles at various targets around the Odessa region, and potentially even the floating oil platforms that Ukrainian GUR uses to stage special forces operations against Crimea. However, as you’ll recall just a couple weeks ago an Su-57 was spotted in the Konstantinovka direction west of Donetsk with its S-70 wingmate.
—
An interesting news story that claims BlackRock is buying up Moldovan land:
Unfortunately no details are given. It’s said on the heels of the election there, Maia Sandu will feel emboldened to begin provocations against Russia and Transnistria as per the bidding of her masters.
Many have previously asked for details of BlackRock’s involvement in Ukraine. Here’s one article which points out that a new instrument called the Ukrainian Development Fund was created to the tune of $15B and “the Financial Markets Advisory Group of BlackRock has five members working on the fund” for “free”.
This information is confirmed even by mainstream outlets like Bloomberg:
You’ll note that BlackRock partnered with JPMorgan for the venture, so this is particularly noteworthy:
Isn’t it interesting how all the top military-intelligence-industrial-complex figures end up running banks? The revolving door between the top elite stratosphere is obvious to see. Last time I had posted the video showing ex-CIA head Mike Pompeo also now runs a bank called Impact Investments (you won’t find any info on it on the web for some reason!) which is buying up Ukrainian telecoms, which puts him on the board as a director of Kyivstar telecom. Just a coincidence I’m sure!
—
I’ll leave you with this pertinent thought-provoker by Andrey Medvedev:
The desire of the West to somehow freeze the Ukrainian conflict, reduce everything to negotiations, the Korean version, the Kosovo version, the Bosnian, whatever other option that benefits only the West, is explained, oddly enough, not only by the military successes of the Russian army.
This, of course, affects the state of the minds of Western politicians. But in addition to the military component, the economy, which, suddenly for the West, took and did not collapse, affects the minds to a lesser extent. That is, everything went wrong. From and to.
Over the years after the collapse of the USSR, when it seemed to someone in joy that the “end of history” had happened, a completely definite scheme of actions with respect to rebellious countries developed in the West.
First, international ostracism at the level of various Europ tips, then sanctions, then bombing and ground invasion. And all this with the powerful information support of hundreds of media, together howling about nightmare Serbs or the terrible Gaddafi.
And it all worked. Even the threat of falling under the rink of this machine of democracy was a sufficient basis for many countries to sit submissively and not to shine. And while someone was bombed and disposed of with sanctions, the rest of the world calmly looked at it, and lived on the principle of "hut with the edge."
But it didn’t work out with the Russians. Threats alone did not scare the Russians. War and sanctions did not break. In places, the opposite is true. Now NATO generals say that the Russian army will come out of the war strong, dangerous and experienced. And experts are trying to understand what was wrong with the sanctions and why the Russian economy shows growth not only in the military sector, even despite the obvious problems. And here is the summit in Kazan. One way or another, major world players express their position. Even if they do not directly help Russia, but coming to Kazan is already support. It is clear to everyone that the hut on the edge burns first.
That is, obviously the situation is completely not typical. This has not happened since the mid-80s of the last century. The unconditional superiority of the West no longer exists. Nothing new has yet arisen, but the old has ended.
And a pause for several years, in a war in the West, is needed only in order to navigate how to act in the new conditions. Not against Russia, but in general. And against China, and with India, and with the Gulf monarchies. Ten, and even five years ago, a scream from the West was certainly perceived in many countries as a guide to action. Now the same Monarchies practically do not respond to the hysteria of Western politicians. And not that China intends to quarrel with the United States. But its line will be promoted more consistently than before 2022.
What to do tomorrow and how to regain your hegemony. These are issues that are extremely worrying for the elite in the West. In a situation, while the Russian army presses NATO fat men, it is difficult to think. It is difficult to even understand to what extent Kiev needs to be supported and how much money to spend on the Ukrainian project.
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Fucking hell, I am tired of being squeezed to death between imperial giants. One day, they're gonna murder my family and not even have the decency to report that it happened in PRIDNESTROVIE. Ugh.
Okay, as for the Blackrock bla bla buying up Moldovan land, sadly the West's marching orders are to starve out local farmers by denying them low-interest loans, investing in irrigation, etc., plus using the press to criticize it whenever the farmers protest.
You might ask, why? Who cares? Moldova is so tiny, etc. Yes, but for reasons too lengthy to get into here, agriculture is still the backbone of the Moldovan economy. It employs more people and makes more money than anything else. >50% of the people in Moldova are directly tied to the land.
In the elections last week (October 20), it became overwhelmingly obvious that both the EU and President Sandu are hated by the people in Moldova, who voted against her in 90% of counties and against joining the EU. But these are the people IN Moldova - meanwhile citizens living in the West voted overwhelmingly in favor of her and the EU (citizens in Russia were suppressed from voting and outright banned in places like Belarus). I personally know a Moldovan guy who hasn't been back in 15 years and lives in America, and he voted for Sandu and the EU.
Long story short, it's the people who live HERE who are the enemy of the GAE (esp because they regularly go to PMR and have no interest in fighting PMR and dying there). So how to get rid of these pesky locals? Easy. Bankrupt the farmers and then get everyone a job as a housekeeper, whore, construction worker, or carer for elderly people somewhere in the EU. Keep only the brainwashed "elite" living in Chisinau who work either for the puppet government or doing backoffice work for Western companies, and slowly make all street signs, apps, bars, buses, restaurants, etc in English only, which is proceeding apace.
That's what's really going on. They're buying people out with glamorous promises of a better more "civilized" life, and they're doing it in Tiraspol here too sadly as wel (tons of EU and USA-funded grants, study abroad programs, etc). We'll resist as much as we can, but as long as Putin and his spooks still want to make a "deal" with Ukraine/USA, we're fucked in the long run. And so too are all the ethnic Russians in Odessa et al.
The Istanbul deal was a very bad one for Russia...Putin will face major opposition if he even thinks about doing it again....Medvedev will surely oppose it, as will the General Staff...