SITREP 10/10/25: Lights Out in Kiev as Putin "Hardens His Heart"
Last night Russia struck another massive blow to Ukraine’s power grid, triggering sprawling blackouts throughout a number of the largest Ukrainian cities, including Kiev, seen below:
This follows unprecedented strikes against Ukraine’s oil and gas facilities which were revealed to have wrecked a mind-blowing 60% of Ukraine’s gas production:
A series of massive Russian air strikes in the past week have disabled nearly 60 per cent of Ukraine’s gas production, raising fears of winter shortages, according to two Ukrainian officials with knowledge of the damage.
Many now believe that these latest actions may be the “big one”, marking Putin’s decisive turn to shut Ukraine off for good. But it’s difficult to know if the latest is merely another Russian “retaliation” for Ukraine’s own infrastructure strikes, and will subside once Ukraine ceases, or if it represents a real pointed campaign to finish Ukraine’s infrastructure off.
Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezugla warned that Kiev would be entirely “shut down”:
The list of the latest hit power centers in last night’s strikes is long:
A list of the plants targeted yesterday evening as part of the attack…
• Kamianska HES (Hydroelectric Power Station)
• Kanivska HES
• Kremenchutska HES
• Zaporizka HES
• Seredniodniprovska HES
• Prydniprovska TETs (Combined Heat and Power Plant)
• Trypilska TES (Thermal Power Station)
• Kaniv TES
• Kamianske TES
• Kremenchuk/Svitlovodsk TES
• Desnianska TETs
• TEC-5, TEC-6
• Dnipro TES
Another working theory as to why Russia has decided to finally bring the hammer down like this now rather than, for instance, last year, is because it has only been semi-recently that Russian Geran drone production skyrocketed to such levels as to allow the total overwhelming of Ukrainian city air defenses.
In the past, major cities like Kiev could put up a much bigger resistance because top NATO missile systems like Patriot and IRIS-T were able to whittle down Russian cruise missiles while mobile anti-drone teams could take out a large portion of Russian Gerans and other decoys. But now it seems a critical mass has been reached where a huge amount of objects are able to get through defenses, giving Russia perhaps its first true opportunity of total dominion over Ukraine’s energy grid.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesman Yuri Ignat has acknowledged that Russia is testing ‘new tactics’ in these recent strikes:
Other recent articles had noted how Russian Iskanders have supposedly been tuned to be even more maneuverable, which has caused the Patriot system much grief.
And this isn’t the end of it: Russia has also been carrying out a simultaneous large-scale and systematic strike campaign against Ukrainian railroad infrastructure:
It is reported that in the last 3 weeks, 40 locomotive depots, power supply stations, and traction substations have been destroyed or damaged in Ukraine.
Trains are actively used to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, military trains are often mixed with passenger trains, which serve as a cover.
Last night, the railway infrastructure in Chernihiv’s Nizhyn was destroyed, resulting in the loss of electricity and the halt of trains.There have been damages to the storage infrastructure of Ukrzaliznytsia, and a fire has broken out.
Another report:
The enemy’s channels are reporting that Ukraine will soon be left without a railway. Locomotives and depots have recently become the most important targets for the Geran, as the tracks are quickly repaired after attacks, and there is a large number of rolling stock available.
Russian reconnaissance UAVs track the concentration points of enemy trains and strike them. This is primarily done by the Russian UAV center Rubicon.
From a Ukrainian channel:
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But as blistering as these strike campaigns have been, they’re not even the biggest current story of the war. That distinction goes to the latest mass Russian advances leading to large collapses on the Ukrainian front.
The most notable of these has been in the long neglected east-Zaporozhye direction, what we’ll call the new Gulyaipole line, which we spoke of last time.
Unit Observer explains what happened, which is that Russian forces suddenly began to redeploy from southern Pokrovsk to reinforce this direction:
Russia continues to redeploy forces away from southern Pokrovsk.
- 90th Tank Division is now entirely south of Ivanivka-Novopavlivka
- 35th, 55th, 74th, 137th Brigades redeployed from southern Pokrovsk towards Novopavlivka.
- Only 15th, 30th Brigades & elements of 27th Division remain south of Pokrovsk.
The question as to why is a ‘chicken-or-egg’ argument; i.e. some believe Russians were “rebuffed” in Pokrovsk and thus decided to change directions. But in reality, the more likely catalyst was simply the observation on the Russian side that the Ukrainians were extremely thinned out in this neglected Gulyaipole direction. They had realized this front was primed for a big push and decided to act with initiative just at the moment they smelled ‘blood’.
And it worked, AFU forces here have suffered the fastest collapse over the past few days since the infamous north-Pokrovsk ‘bunny ears’ salient from a couple months ago.
You may recall just several reports back I had mentioned how Russian forces were approaching this line of settlements running along the Yanchur river—now the Russians have sprinted right up to the river and have already begun storming some of the villages along the line:
Note the red line in the above map, it is where experts have observed that the next closest major Ukrainian defensive line lies. That means the huge swath of open land between the Yanchur zone along the orange line and that of the red line will quickly be rolled up by the Russians once they take over this sprawl of settlements along the Yanchur. And once they get to that next defensive shield, the siege of Gulyaipole will begin.
Note that this red defensive line runs north from Gulyaipole up to a second Pokrovske, not related to the main Pokrovsk further east:
Due to the rapidity of Russia’s advancement, it has been announced that this Pokrovske is now undergoing emergency evacuations, as they already expect Russian forces to be nearing soon:
A resident of Pokrovskoe in the Dnepropetrovsk region reported a mass evacuation due to the approaching frontline — the village is just 15 km away.
Businesses in the town are closing, and many residents have left for Kropyvnytskyi (Kirovograd).
A closer look shows that a new stab out of previously-captured Verbove is headed directly in the direction of Pokrovske, written Pokrovskoe in Russian:
There were many other smaller bits of territory captured between this zone and Pokrovsk, but we’ll stick to the main action for the sake of brevity in this piece.
In Pokrovsk, the Ukrainians have been unable to evict Russian forces from the ‘bunny ears’ of the Dobropillya salient, and in fact Russian control has now been increasing there again.
Even more surprising was that Russia launched one of the first larger armored assaults in a long while, at a time when everyone thought armor pushes were dead for good. Recall we had recently written one analyst’s opinion that Russia may soon begin large armor pushes again after greatly weakening Ukrainian defenses on some of these fronts, and that apparently was proven true. Others have aptly opined that as foliage falls away through fall and into winter, Russians may begin using more armored attacks given that the “trickle” method of inserting two and three-man groups of troops isn’t as effective when there’s no tree cover.
Pokrovsk direction: remains a priority for the Russians.
One of the key bets of the Russian command is on seasonal weather changes. Based on their experience conducting offensives in other sectors of the front (for example, last year’s offensives in the Kursk region), the Russians place great hopes on rain and fog, intending to carry out rapid advances with mechanized columns, as such weather complicates the operation of Ukrainian Defense Forces unmanned aerial vehicles
Yesterday’s assault was launched on Shakhove from Volodimirovka, about here:
Ukrainians claimed “massive losses” with hundreds of Russian troops killed, dozens of vehicles destroyed, etc., while Russian accounts differed and reported that the assault appeared to be successful as Russian forces managed to lodge themselves in southern Shakhove:
The official Deep State account admitted Russian forces managed to land from 50 to 75 infantrymen into the village, which sounds like the assault may have succeeded:
Later however some Ukrainian accounts claimed Russian forces were no longer in the southern part of Shakhove, either having been eliminated or having retreated—but there is no confirmation one way or another yet.
For full transparency here’s one Ukrainian account of what happened including the claimed losses:
After a long pause, Russia is again sending big armored columns into attack. A mass assault with 35 tanks & AFVs on Ukrainian positions took place in the area of responsibility of Azov 1st Corps:
Oct 9 — Ocheretyne axis: Russia launched a massed assault, committing 35 heavy armored vehicles (tanks & AFVs), preceded by waves of motorcycles, aiming to seize Shakhove.
Results of Ukraine’s defense:
•Personnel: 107 Russians KIA, 51 WIA.
•Vehicles destroyed/damaged: 1 armored recovery vehicle (ARV), 3 tanks, 16 AFVs, plus 41 motorcycles and 2 light vehicles.
The assault came in several waves from multiple directions: motorcycle groups first, then tank/AFV columns with infantry. Thanks to pre-laid minefields and coordinated actions by Ukrainian artillery (AFU & National Guard) and UAV crews, Russia was forced to reroute, lost orientation, abandoned vehicles, and dropped infantry in unplanned areas.
Volodymyrivka: Russia managed to land 32 infantry; 12 were eliminated immediately, the rest hid in ruined houses and basements. In the evening and night, heavy bomber UAV crews struck those shelters.
By the morning of Oct 10, no Russian infantry movement remained in Volodymyrivka.
Oddly enough, Ukrainians themselves tried to launch a much larger-than-average assault near nearby Mirnograd. A large column of AFU light armor was wiped out about here, according to geolocators:
The video:
Well, that one certainly looks more like a total wipe out compared to the Ukrainian video of the Russian assault, where a few tanks seemed to have suffered partial hits and were likely salvageable.
It should also be mentioned that Russians have made progress in the city of Pokrovsk itself, capturing more of the southern districts and outlying areas:
In the Konstantinovka direction there were advances as well, with some reports Russians began entering the city from the southeast Oleksandro-Shultyne salient—but we’ll leave this for next time.
Heading further north, in the Seversk direction there have been big changes. Russian forces are advancing closer to Seversk from the south:
In the Seversk direction, our troops are advancing towards Zvanovka through the recently captured village of Kuzminovka. The 88th Brigade is advancing there, but the control over the enemy’s strongholds near Kuzminovka is questionable. The Russian Armed Forces have confirmed their control over Vyemka. According to reports, the village was formally liberated half a year ago, but it is only now being reclaimed.
Just to the north the key town of Yampol has been half taken:
Now that Zarichne has also been fully captured, Russian forces are getting closer than ever to Krasny Lyman from three directions:
In fact, the advances here have been so decisive that the Ukrainian command has issued a directive officially re-designating the various directions of this front:
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to breakthroughs by the Russian army, announced changes in the names of the operational directions of the front, effectively admitting the loss of extensive territories
The statement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine acknowledges that the names are changing due to ‘changes in the operational situation’:
Seversk - Slavyansk
Toretsk - Kostiantynivka
Novopavlovsk-Oleksandrivka”
Lastly we head to Kupyansk, where some of the biggest breakthroughs were also recorded.
In fact, as you can see Russian forces have captured a huge portion of the town,
Report:
East of the Oskil (in the Kupiansk area) there are 4 Ukrainian brigades:
-14th Mechanized Brigade
-43rd Mechanized Brigade
-112th Territorial Defense Brigade
-116th Mechanized Brigade
Soviet brigades are 4.000 man each, counting that the organisation is probably around 50% there are 8.000 soldiers east of the river.
There are even a battalion and a regiment, to be precise the 205th battalion and the 31st regiment.
Once Kupiansk falls they dont have any bridges left intact to use (except maybe pontoon bridges, if they have any).
They will be forced to retreat by swimming in the Oskil or by small boats, like in Severodonetsk, exposing themselves to FPV strikes.
Obviously every heavy equipment will be left behind.
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Last assorted items:
Top AFU drone figure Maria Berlinska says Ukraine is now losing technologically to Russia:
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As corollary to the above, Russian forces are reportedly testing a laser on their Courier UGV bot:
The Ignis laser system, mounted on a “Courier” UGV, is used during military exercises.
In this photo, the Ignis is burning out TM-62 anti-tank mines on a riverbank. The mines are destroyed without detonation, simply disintegrating after being burned by the laser. The effective range is up to 200 meters.
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Further, in the Kharkov region Russia has reportedly been testing new AI drone swarms with fully autonomous targeting of human targets:
In the Kharkiv region, Russia is testing swarms of drones (7-8 drones per swarm) with NVIDIA Jetson AI. The AI is outdated, but it has already learned to recognize a person with a machine gun, and there has already been a precedent of attacking Ukrainian infantry. These drones have been used in the Kharkiv region so far. The electric version can fly up to 70 km in depth, while the gasoline version can fly further. There is an option to evade anti-aircraft drones. The Russian Armed Forces use up to 200 such drones per month, and there are also reconnaissance variants. Ukraine does not have or develop any similar products.
According to the above, the drone can recognize a person with a “machine gun” and automatically attack them…this is probably bad news for any civilian holding a mop, rake, or other common garden implements. Best to stay inside these days.
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Further on the topic, Putin announced that Russia is developing new “intercontinental” weapons that are as of yet unknown to the world:
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Ukrainian MP recognizes that the West is using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia, the only problem is that Russians don’t surrender, and neither do the Ukrainians since they’re essentially shadow selves of one another, which leads to a catastrophic bloodbath—one that NATO loves to see.
The Russians don’t surrender” — Ukrainian MP Artem Dmytruk
“We ourselves understand that Ukraine is the best agent in this direction of weakening Russia”
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More fear-porn from failed-state Europe—the French are preparing doomsday supplies for Russia’s ‘inevitable’ attack:
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It’s about time stronger measures were taken. This needs to end before the European trash leadership finds a way to false flag us into a new world war.
Like I keep saying: Ukraine men would rather die in a trench than say no to a 5 foot jewish comedian.