Qatar "Talks" Just Another Ukrainian Perception Management Diversion
Qatar "Talks" Just Another Ukrainian Perception Management Diversion
The latest lede driving the buzz for the past few days is the claim that Russia and Ukraine were set to meet in Qatar to discuss a mutual ceasefire against hitting each other’s energy grids. The furnished narrative suggests that Russia has been hurting from the “crippling” strikes on its oil and gas infrastructure conducted by Ukrainian drones, and so was willing to stop hitting the Ukrainian electric grid in exchange.
From the outset, this story smelled fairly fishy for obvious reasons. I’ll let one of the top pro-Ukrainian accounts explain the absurdity of it. Here’s Illia Ponomarenko’s take:
Read that very carefully:
And yes, it's extremely unlikely that Russia would be interested in halting its large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for no more Ukrainian attacks on its oil depots and refineries. Because Russia doesn't need an "energy attacks ceasefire" as badly as Ukraine now. Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities are painful and harmful but not as closely bad as the situation with Ukraine's national energy grid, which is critical now. Ukraine's non-nuclear energy generation has been nullified with Russian missiles at the national level. Down to the point that we had large-scale power outages during peak summer heat. Ukraine's energy transition and importing system is extremely vulnerable to new Russian bombing campaigns. And winter is coming soon. And air defense remains in terrible deficit.
Why would Russia want to stop this now, again? For the sake of saving some oil depots from Ukrainian drones? This is naive af.
Following that, we’ve had several statements from official Russian figures denying any such talks were being planned.
Yuri Ushakov, advisor to the Russian president:
"As follows from the latest statement by Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian president, Putin's peace plan itself is not being cancelled. However, "at this stage, given this adventure [of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region], we will not talk."
Lavrov:
In a comment to Pavel Zarubin, Lavrov called reports of "hidden contacts" between Moscow and Kyiv, allegedly mediated by Qatar and Turkey, rumors.
Information about such contacts, according to the minister, is part of the development of the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland, where a decision was made to create working groups.
But for Moscow this process is unacceptable, because its only goal is to promote an ultimatum called the "Zelensky formula," Lavrov emphasized.
Maria Zakharova put the final nail in on the theory:
In response to the report, Zakharova claimed that "no one broke anything off because there was nothing to break off."
"There have been no direct or indirect negotiations between Russia and the Kyiv regime on the safety of civilian critical infrastructure facilities," Zakharova added.
Even the Washington Post article which first broke the story quoted a Ukrainian official as stating how catastrophic the energy situation in the country has become:
One of the reasons Ukrainian officials doubted Russia’s sincerity is its extensive bombing campaign of Ukrainian energy infrastructure in recent weeks. More bombardment could leave civilians without power for hours each day during the frigid winter months.
“We have one chance to get through this winter, and that’s if the Russians won’t launch any new attacks on the grid,” a Ukrainian official who was briefed on the talks said.
So, then if this truly is the case, who is behind the Qatar story, and what is its purpose?
It’s obvious that Ukraine gains the most from promulgating such a story: it seeks to portray Russia as desperate, which in turn makes Ukraine look triumphant in its campaign of strikes against Russian oil processing sites. It makes Putin look like he’s “crawling back” to Ukraine for negotiations. In effect, it seems like nothing more than another leg of ongoing PR management and damage control for Ukraine, with the strategy of always taking the initiative of rolling out stories unfavorable to Russia’s image first, so that Russia is forced to invariably play off the back foot, in a defensive position by perception.
This all ties into the wider information sphere management on the NATO-Ukrainian side as they desperately work to cultivate perceptions of the war favorable to Ukraine, with the European citizenry as the main target audience. As long as Ukraine can be presented as victorious and upbeat, the military-industrial parasite clan grift can continue squeezing out more tax payer funds for the money laundering scheme that is this war.
Unfortunately, cracks continue to grow in that direction:
Recall I had surmised the “sudden” unearthing of Nord Stream evidence against Ukraine was not coincidental.
Now the foreign correspondent for The Economist even states he was told the recent Nord Stream legal case was in fact part of a new internal shift in Germany, which appears to be trying to extricate itself from Ukraine:
The above references this article:
"According to the current budget planning, only the military aid that has already been approved can be delivered [to Ukraine]. Therefore, air defense systems will no longer be purchased."
"Betrayal" on the First German Channel! And the most terrible announcement: Germany has no extra money for Ukraine. But, in order to smooth things over, they are allowed to put in their two cents - both the upset Ukrainian ambassador Makeyev and a couple of experts concerned about the problem. From now on it is like this: the deeper the holes in the German budget, the deeper the sympathy for Ukraine. Bare, dictionary-like.
Furthermore, NY Times’ new article also doused water on negotiation theories, stating out right that Putin is not focused on negotiations now but on “revenge”:
If you read the rest of the article above, you’ll note the tone entirely revolves around peace talks for Ukraine, with every interpretation of the Kursk assault coming down to Ukraine trying to force Russia into negotiations. It’s a very shifty game the West is playing: militate in every possible way for negotiations and a cessation of conflict, all the while pinning it on Russia, and claiming Russia is scrabbling desperately for talks.
This is a smokescreen of magnificent proportions, an epic gas lighting campaign only the regime media could pull off with such brazen verve. In actuality, when you cut the noise and closely examine the reality, it becomes clear that Russia is not yenning for talks of any kind and continues to prosecute its military campaign very methodically, with no degree of caginess or contradiction. The more Ukraine pushes this surreal smokescreen, the more it becomes evident that Zelensky must truly be on his last leg, and the internal figures in the AFU must be flashing red.
Interestingly, there continues to be indication that the West may be pushing for the type of desperate armistice we discussed several times a month or two ago. Namely: cutting all the Russian-controlled land off, and immediately whisking rump-state Ukraine off into NATO proper:
The plan appears to be to create a continuing crescendo of hype and tension around the figment that the situation is deteriorating for Russia on every front—the home front, the northern military front, and soon to be other fronts around Zaporozhye and elsewhere. It’s all to create a sort of tangible wave of pressure against Russia’s leadership, and shift global perceptions about the war in Ukraine’s favor to freight Russia with anxiety coming even from allies toward ending the war.
As we’ve been discussing, the next stage entails potentially activating the Zaporozhye front, with rumors continuing to abound about buildups there:
Dangerous situation on the Zaporozhye site. The enemy is pulling vehicles and fuel trucks to the Orekhovo direction. There is a lot of equipment on the Kamensk site-north of Vasilyevka. The direction of impact is on the Zapad NPP and the Vasilyevka-Tokmak highway with access to Melitopol. At the same time, the Crimean Bridge will be hit. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expects only one thing-to reduce our forces in this area.
But now there’s even another old escalatory master plan being tediously revived: the Transnistria gambit. Suddenly, from several seemingly coordinated vectors at once, we’ve had signals that Ukraine may soon attempt to enflame the Transnistria corridor in their attempt to drown Russia in chaos from every side, perhaps imagining they will freeze the Russian general staff in a kind of indecision crisis doom spiral.
Here we have Ukrainian charity Come Back Alive head Taras Chmut dropping a hint:
This was suddenly followed by Moldovan ex-Defense Minister Anatole Shalaru declaring that Moldova and Ukraine should jointly “solve” the Transnistria issue once and for all sometime soon:
And then there were other small hints on rumor mill channels like Rezident UA, etc., that Ukraine is considering opening up that front to stoke the flames against Russia’s war.
Of course, as before, this is now the fourth or fifth time Ukraine has threatened to stoke that theater into conflict, and most likely it will come to naught again, but it’s something to keep an eye on as Ukraine enters the ninth inning.
Also, Ukraine has telegraphed its own intentions in the coming nuclear falseflag Zelensky potentially plans to carry out:
As can be seen by the above, the Kursk diversion allows them to carry out a possible falseflag under the immunity of the lie that it’s a “desperate Russia” that’s responsible. This is why these cognitive campaigns and information psyops are so important, to seed the ground for Western audiences to truly be convinced that it is Russia’s situation that’s slowly deteriorating and causing Putin to turn desperate.
—
To get back to the Kursk invasion for a moment, one thing that’s been made increasingly visible is that the operation appeared hidden from the US, while in actuality it was the UK taking the lead in goading Ukraine into such a daring foray. This could explain why the US insisted they were not told about it, and ostensibly refuses to allow Ukraine to use its more prestige systems on Russian territory, while the UK is conversely gung ho and all-in on the escalatory ladder.
The British Sunday Times’ new column punctuates this, and the overall schematic does correspond to earlier theories that a rift existed between the US/UK, with UK being the more maximalist, while the more politically-fractured Biden administration leaned toward reeling the conflict in. MoA covered this angle also.
Of course this has more to do with the fact that the US has more to lose in a superpower exchange with Russia, while the UK gets to hide behind mommy’s skirt; so the US will naturally be the more cautious and wary, while UK gets to play the squealing poodle.
To mention one other thing about the Kursk operation, many have espoused the belief that perhaps Russia somehow lured Ukraine into a deliberate trap. I’m not convinced that it was intentional, per se, but now that Ukraine has committed such important, elite forces there, and now that most Russian civilians have reportedly been evacuated from the region, I am partial to the idea that Putin will once again not “hurry” the cleansing operation too much because it’s simply too good of an opportunity to allow the enemy to over-extend himself and be destroyed in a bad position.
A couple corresponding opinions from the network:
So he points out that many of the military personnel in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to say that there is a possibility that the Russians specifically launched us into the Kursk region. For them, from the point of view of the military strategy, this is not dangerous. Plus, you can use the regular army, and logistics is complicated for the Armed Forces. The more the Armed Forces of Ukraine controls, the more forces are needed for this, as was the case with the Russians in 2022, when they took a lot from the end in Ukraine, and there were no prepared reserves, and then this resulted in the Kharkov offensive of the Armed Forces, and the retreat of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
No matter how it goes now.
Furthermore, Russia has utilized a minimalist strategy thus far, leveraging relatively small amounts of force to deplete and attrit a much larger Ukrainian one:
#hearings
Our source reports that the Russians solved the issue of Kursk case at the lowest cost. With the help of UAV Lanzet, drone scouts, fpv drones and aviation, they stopped the advance of the Armed Forces. At the same time, they did not have to transfer thousands of soldiers from the front line, which was so expected on Bankova
Even top pro-UA propagandists are forced to admit Ukraine is making no gains in Kursk at the moment, blaming Biden for the slow down:
Think about it this way, in Kursk conscripts are allowed to fight because the proscription against their usage applies only to Ukrainian territory of the SMO. Thus, Russia is effectively able to open up an entirely new previously un-used force while Ukraine has to partition out its own depleted one.
Here’s a video of a young Russian conscript calling men of the nation to come join them and help:
—
Turning to the main front of the war, Russia continues pressing ahead with no slow down, capturing several more settlements and areas today. Most significantly it has expanded its territory toward Pokrovsk, with the situation there turning increasingly dire for Ukraine.
Julian Ropcke now calls the situation “catastrophic” for Ukraine:
The above Forbes article states plainly that Ukraine is losing double the normal amount of equipment in Kursk, which will affect its operations everywhere:
Calls for total evacuation continue for Pokrovsk region; here’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereschuk:
Due to the worsening situation in the Pokrovsk direction, residents of Selidovo, Pokrovsk and Mirnograd need to leave the cities, - Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine
"I ask you to evacuate. If you are not involved in the defense of populated areas, you should leave for safer regions... I understand that evacuation can involve difficulties and uncertainty. But it is better than being under fire on the line of fire," said Irina Vereshchuk.
Over the past week, the evacuation from Pokrovsk has accelerated — about 1,800 people have left, the MVA says. All public utilities continue to operate in the community. The city is preparing for defense, the construction of fortifications continues. RVvoenkor
Rezident UA:
Our source reports that if Western partners / sponsors now hesitate with «packages » of military assistance, then in 60 days the Armed Forces will have the largest shortage of equipment, ammunition, air defense, for the entire period of the war.
Holding Kursk adventures will eat all reserves and reserves.
Zelensky now asks Western partners to issue large-scale «assistance packages », he needs this to cover the deficit that has already begun and is gaining momentum due to the Kursk adventure.
Some last odds and ends:
Another Economist article had a very interesting revelation:
It states that Syrsky himself was previously “ordered” by the US to stand down on a given mission, and he reportedly kept the Kursk operation secret from them specifically to bypass the need for American approval. This is one of the most direct affirmations we have of the fact that the AFU is entirely controlled by NATO general staff—for the most part.
The article also reveals that while the opening of the operation was meticulously planned, now it’s being run totally extemporaneously:
It concludes that losses are now “increasing” as Russians have begun figuring the AFU out:
“The bastards have figured out how to fight and they understand our tactics,” says Private Serhiy in the 80th. “But that doesn’t mean we don’t understand their tactics—or that we won’t continue to take them down.”
—
FT, meanwhile, reports about the catastrophic winter soon to eclipse Ukraine’s woes.
—
Kiev Independent gives the score on how many Ukrainian women have joined the ranks:
—
Vast amounts of AFU continue to be captured in the Kursk region. At this point, Russia has likely more than equalized the POW exchange after Ukraine initially caught the border guard conscripts:
—
Some have marveled at a new Russian capability, as an entire Ukrainian armor column in Kursk is hit in turn by some kind of precision guided Russian munition:
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
It appears that Simplicius has dropped yet again!
The man! His brain! This war! His pen!!
What insights, what angles, what bombshells today?
Let's discuss what The Thinker has mustered to convey....
Well done, Simplicius.