Planetary Scare: Russian Doomsday Space Weapon Steals Headlines of Avdeevka Collapse
Yesterday, reports of a new Russian DOOMSDAY WEAPON sent corporate media into a shark-feeding frenzy:
Jake Sullivan broke the news to a wide-eyed pressroom, keeping mum but claiming he will be having what sounded like emergency meetings with ‘the gang of eight’—these are the top Congressional leaders who are privy to the most classified information.
Of course, the irony of the scare tactic was not lost on some:
The customary ‘leaks’ followed soon after and pointed to some type of new Russian “space capability” that reportedly threatens US and its partners, though Sullivan seemed to even imply that it’s a threat to the population while claiming he didn’t want to ‘cause mass panic.’ Ironically—or not—everything about his announcement appeared designed to do precisely that. Gee.
The announcement sparked a swell of theories on the internet from an endless array of people who aren’t really knowledgeable on the subject matter, and used their ignorance to further the attempt at scaremongering. And most likely this was the whole point: people immediately and rightfully pointed to the obvious timing of this scare tactic.
The Senate had just passed its side of the Ukraine-Israel aid bill and the bill once more had the door slammed shut in its face in the House, courtesy of Speaker Johnson and co. So what do they do? Predictably roll out some deus ex machina doomsday weapon totally out of thin air to terrify defiant Republicans into enriching the MIC with another cool ~$100 billion.
But getting to what it actually is, as I said wild rumors flew about everything from the ‘Rods of God’ kinetic weapons, to FOBS space nukes for hitting cities in the same way a conventional ICBM would, to EMP weapons and beyond.
Let’s try to demystify it, and see what the actual platform realistically and most likely does.
The main misconception around the usage of this potential weapon from armchair ‘experts’ on social media revolves around a misunderstanding of how satellite warfare works. To sum it up very briefly: everyone knows Russia has anti-satellite missiles that can fly into orbit and shoot down satellites. But in the modern age, this ability has become nearly meaningless and, in some ways, neutralized by the advent of mass saturation of small satellite constellations.
Anti-satellite weapons like Russia’s A-235 ‘Nudol’ are some of the most advanced and expensive assets, and are primarily designed to take out the large flagship Electro-Optical style spysats like US’s ‘Keyhole’ systems, which are $4-5 billion dollar a pop and few in number. Yes, it’s critically important to have the capability to take out these E/O satellites, which create regular high-res optical imagery of military targets.
However, there are many other types of much smaller and cheaper satellites like ELINT/SIGINT and GPS ones which number in the thousands, and most certainly cannot be taken out by conventional anti-satellite missiles like the Nudol as they are simply too numerous. The latest and biggest intractable problem is of course SpaceX’s Starlink, which now numbers nearly ~4,000 total small satellites in orbit at this time. There is simply no way to take them all out via manual targeting of each, one by one.
So: what is the only other option? To blow vast swaths of them out at the same time, either via space Kesslerization, of which I wrote about several times, or via triggering several large nuclear/EMP explosions to wipe out entire constellations in one go, even if it doesn’t trigger total breakaway Kesslerization of common orbits.
What the ‘Russian threat’ sounds like is potentially some version of the old American-attempted Project Excalibur, of which I also wrote about several times in past mailbags. A quick primer from wiki:
It’s a very complex topic and much of it remains classified, but the basic gist is a sort of satellite that has special ‘rods’ which can point toward and target other objects like Soviet ICBMs or satellites. At the center of these ‘rods’ made of special reactive material, is a nuclear bomb. When that bomb is detonated, the ‘rods’ are heated up and create ultra powerful ‘x-ray lasers’ which shoot out and can zap objects like ICBMs/satellites from thousands of kilometers away in space, as long as they’re within the visual field of view of the Excalibur system. The nuclear explosion is necessary and therefore central to the system.
Chapline attended a meeting where Sobel'man's work on X-ray lasers was presented. He had learned of the unique underground nuclear tests made on behalf of the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA), where the burst of X-rays produced by the nuclear reactions were allowed to travel down a long tunnel while the blast itself was cut off by large doors that slammed shut as the explosion approached. These tests were used to investigate the effects of X-rays from exoatmospheric nuclear explosions on reentry vehicles. He realized this was a perfect way to pump an X-ray laser.
The Soviets created a somewhat related system called Skif, which was a space-based laser that could reportedly take out other satellites. Neither project got off the ground for either country.
So here’s what some of the ‘experts’ are saying about the current secret doomsday weapon:
James Acton, co-director of Carnegie Nuclear Policy, writes on Twitter:
NewsHour reporting that the Russian mystery weapon may be a nuclear-POWERED (not a nuclear-armed) anti-satellite system. If so, it could be highly effective, though also grossly irresponsible.
I assume the advantage of a nuclear reactor is that it could generate large amounts of energy that could be used for electromagnetic attacks across a large volume of space. (2/n)
More speculatively, I wonder if this is a reaction to U.S. military interest in proliferated constellations, i.e. constellations comprising large number of small satellites that are resilient against kinetic attack. (3/n)
It appears to be grossly irresponsible because what do you do with a nuclear reactor in orbit when the satellite has finished its useful life? You really, really don't want it to burn up on re-entry which is the normal disposal "solution" for satellites in LEO..
Caveat: There's a ton we don't know. Is it nuclear powered or nuclear-armed? What orbit? Has this thing been launched or is it at an earlier phase of development?
Here’s another account writing on Russian ‘Super-EMP’ capabilities. And this astrophysicist clarifies a bit of semantics in that ‘EMP’ is not precisely the effect that kills other objects in space:
Rather, according to him, it is the direct gamma ray radiation from a nuclear explosion that would destroy all other objects like satellites in line-of-sight.
Lastly, we get to the possibility of secret Russian project Ekipazh.
The article is a very interesting investigative attempt to put together clues as to what the top secret project could potentially be about, and one of the conclusions they come to is the following:
While not going into too much detail, the articles acknowledged that Plazma-2010 had been designed with the possibility of installing EW payloads. The presence of a nuclear reactor would make it possible to install “jammers operating in a wide range of frequencies” and place such payloads into highly elliptical and geostationary orbits for “uninterrupted suppression of electronic systems in large areas.”
The spacecraft would be delivered to their operational orbits by an electric propulsion unit and are therefore referred to in the articles as “transport and energy modules.” The EW mission would require a reactor generating at least 30 to 40 kilowatts, allowing the satellites to be launched by the Soyuz-2-1b rocket. For more advanced EW missions, the performance would have to be increased to 100 kilowatts, necessitating a switch to the more powerful Angara-A5 rocket. The 2016 article (as quoted by Izvestiya) said KB Arsenal was working on two types of reactors with a capacity of 30 and 50 kilowatts respectively. It was also noted that satellites flown under KB Arsenal’s Liana program could provide intelligence in support of the EW mission. It would even be possible to adapt the solar-powered Liana bus for a “more limited” electronic warfare mission requiring less power.
They quote a Russian dispatch that states:
More specifically, it talks about the need to deploy “multifunctional space-based EW complexes for reconnaissance and suppression of radio-electronic systems used by radar, navigation and communications systems.”
The article was written in 2019, and says that a testflight could be done within several years by 2021, give or take, so the timing is interesting, particularly given that some of yesterday’s reports claimed this asset may even already have been launched by Russia and is already in space. They conclude with the following:
It is hard to say what exactly the role of the space-based component is. Assuming that the EW satellite is indeed Ekipazh, the most plausible objective would be electronic attack, the only of the three that would seem to require the amount of energy warranting the use of a nuclear power source. However, a combination of the various functions is also possible.
In essence, it’s a satellite requiring a huge (nuclear) power source, as much as 1 megawatt, or a million watts, for some type of very powerful electronic suppression of enemy satellites.
So, as a summary: land-based anti-satellite weapons are useless against the mass proliferation of small satellite constellations like GPS, Starlink, etc., because it’s far too impractical to shoot them down this way. Even the mass amounts of NATO/Western/Five-Eye larger electro-optical, SARs, etc., satellites poses a problem as the fleet has now grown pretty large and would likely present a challenge—or be nigh impossible—to shoot down or significantly degrade in its entirety.
Thus, the only truly ‘economic’ option that exists is by using some sort of space-based nuclear weapon that can take out dozens or even hundreds of such satellites in a single blow.
Interestingly, last year the Resident channel reported the following—check the date below:
But let’s broach the most important point: why this, why now?
There are several options:
1. The entire story is either fake or exaggerated and being rolled out by Democrats at a strategic time to achieve several purposes: scaremongering Congressmen into voting on Ukraine aid, as well as potentially conditioning the masses and setting the stage for a black swan falseflag to cancel the 2024 elections later this year. What better way to do a ‘mail-in voting hoax’ redux than to claim a secret Russian nuclear satellite “disabled” all communications and thus voting machines, allowing the deepstate to either fiddle with the results or outright cancel/postpone elections if things are getting dire for them.
At least that’s the theory if you ask this guy:
2. U.S. establishment wants to use some new scare tactic to take attention away from the current ongoing Avdeevka collapse—a standard headline-smothering tactic. They know that support for Ukraine is hanging by a final tiny thread, and emerging news of the total collapse of the AFU could be the last nail in the coffin, potentially spurring ‘on-the-fence’ lawmakers to question what the point of any further “aid” is when Ukraine is already collapsing. This is doubly possible given the recent headline-dominating fiasco about Zelensky firing his entire general staff, which has already soured appetites for conflict extension by a large margin. Following this recent news, for example, many headlines have turned particularly despondent, even compared to some of the previous most ‘downer’ examples. For instance:
3. This explanation is something I’ve been thinking about for some time. The constant slow encroachment from NATO/U.S. has been making itself increasingly painfully felt for Russia. Not only have red lines famously been eroded a little at a time, but most of it has to do with the West’s ISR overmatch, allowing them to have total strategic informational awareness of Russia’s military designs at all times.
This has increasingly led to painful losses like the recent attack on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships, as well as various infrastructure terror strikes happening over the course of the past few weeks, on oil and gas refineries, civilian cities like Belgorod, and much more. There had to have come a point where Russia says “enough” and flexes some sort of asymmetrical muscle to signal for the West to back off.
Thus, this could be a potential new escalation on Russia’s behalf to draw a final red line and issue the implied threat that if you continue meddling and harming us with these assets, we will consider wiping out your entire space-based ISR assets.
Of course, the problem with such an approach—if we’re talking about the nuclear/EMP-style option, at least—is it would indiscriminately wipe out everything in sight, including friendly and allied space assets. But I agree with one analyst who said that China likely wouldn’t mind trading a few of its own destroyed satellites in exchange for seeing the entire fleet of U.S./NATO assets go up in smoke.
Such a weapon could truly be a ‘hand of god’ that totally erases the Empire’s most crucial capabilities, instantaneously blinding it in every theater all over the world, allowing Iran, Yemen, North Korea, China, and anyone else to run rampant. I said before that Russia knows how to fight blind—hundreds of videos attest to its artillerymen, for instance, using Bussols and other scopes to accurately hit targets day in and out, while NATO relies primarily on satellite-guided GPS for almost everything.
We’ll see over the coming days or weeks which option may prove true—it could even be a mixture of both: a well-timed propaganda release of an actual legitimate Russian asset/threat to serve the deepstate’s interests at a strategically opportune moment.
Now onto the actual most pressing and significant news: Avdeevka is undergoing a catastrophic terminal collapse:
Presented in three parts here by the ever-dependable Jihad Julian:
We spoke last time of lines being overrun, with Syrsky having brought in the AFU’s most elite units to try to stem the Russian advance. Now it’s being reported they’re merely acting as cover for the mass retreats:
Here’s one alleged report on that matter:
The headquarters inside Avdeevka received a directive to withdraw along three “logistics corridors.” The key role was played by the commanders of the 3rd “Azov” brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; after entering, they quickly understood the situation, lost one and a half battalions and decided to leave “due to the lack of positions and logistics routes prepared for defense.” (there were also reports on TG channels about Ukrainian soldiers leaving position without permission in the very eastern part of the cauldron - I think what we see now is a sort of narrative damage control - Russian sources also report: We won't let them leave - they can surrender or they will die - there is no escape)
This highlights pervasive rumors that the Azov Brigade in fact countermanded direct orders and fled due to heavy losses. One claimed report directly from Azov itself seems to corroborate the brutality of the foregoing clashes:
Ukrainian TG channel reports: Avdeevka . Briefly from the deputy commander 3rd Brigade (AZOV): “Our third assault carries out combat missions in conditions that were difficult even for us to imagine. The confrontation is not just with superior enemy forces - there are a huge number of enemies, coming from all sides. The battles in Avdievka were several times the hellish of the hottest battles of this phase of the war, which were in Bakhmut.”
Some videos and photos have come out depicting a hellish landscape in Avdeevka:
Avdeevka
02/15/2024 photo of a day going down in history.
FABs continue to fly now...
The main breakthroughs occurred in the suburb sector, totally bisecting the city and even extending a deep salient outward toward supply lines:
Sensing the coming collapse, yesterday Russian forces were said to have broadly transmitted a surrender ultimatum to the entire Avdeevka garrison, giving them upwards of one day to lay down their arms en masse:
Avdeevka. "Ultimatum" . "The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine this morning, on their frequencies, was asked to surrender and avoid losses of personnel. In return, a safe corridor was proposed to reach our rear and guarantee the preservation of lives. No answer. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to conduct fierce resistance. Over the course of 24 hours, about 50 people reached our positions. All of them were frostbitten."
Soon after, the rapid collapse began as Russian forces pushed in virtually from every single side of the embattled town.
Zelensky himself reported on the situation, seemingly referencing “saving personnel”—a euphemism for “retreat”:
And the AFU spokesman confirmed an evacuation “to more advantageous positions” was in order, while trying to downplay the situation:
In this animation you can see the area called ‘Zenit’ of the old air defense base, which had been in a boiler, completely falling:
Russian troops posted a flag raising ceremony from there:
Geolocation:
And as Jihad Julian referenced earlier, they reportedly put up flags at the entrance to the Coke Plant where Zelensky took selfies last month (yes, the joke writes itself…):
My understanding is that the geolocation for that is here:
And the map further shows that Russian troops have reportedly now begun even entering the premises of the Coke Plant at the south and southeastern sides.
All sorts of reports have been streaming out from the Ukrainian side about the catastrophic nature of some of the proceedings. For instance, this video of a trapped AFU soldier speaking to his loved one:
John Kirby and the administration went into overdrive begging for aid to help the foundering AFU:
Note his laughable characterization of Russian ‘conscript forces’. If Russia is able to decimate and humiliate the combined power of NATO just with its ‘conscripts’ then I’m frightened to imagine what would happen if Russia put its real professional troops into the fight.
Biden’s handlers desperately chimed in as well:
Meanwhile half-conscious Floyd conspicuously sported a Ukrainian flag in his hospital roo—I mean ‘Pentagon office suite’:
Unfortunately for Ukraine: the House went into recess until basically March without voting on or approving any Ukrainian aid:
That means, once again, the timeline gets so compressed as to be extremely unfavorable for the AFU: even if the House returns and manages to approve something in March—unlikely in itself—aid would not begin streaming in to Ukraine until potentially two months after that; and recent statements from Ukraine’s own Rada deputy Arakhamia claimed Ukraine could last “two more months” on their current munitions:
Though it should be said, I don’t put particular store in such reports, but it’s merely something to take note of.
One of the only last remaining things to be seen is how much of the AFU garrison can escape Avdeevka without being captured. There are various contending and often contradictory reports: some from the Russian side claim upwards of 2000-3000 AFU are trapped, while the Ukrainian side claims an orderly retreat.
From the official 35th of the AFU:
A final interesting aspect of ongoing events is the brewing theory, posited by the famed hackers of DPR Joker and others, that the most rabid ‘nationalistic’ formations were in fact ‘fed’ into the grinder of Avdeevka for a very specific purpose. According to the theory, Syrsky was onboarded precisely to help ‘destroy’ the nationalist groups that Zaluzhny husbanded and cultivated in order to facilitate the proper conditions for an ensuing negotiations or surrender—which the nationalist groups would not have allowed, were they at full strength:
I don’t necessarily buy the theory, but as usual, it’s something to file away just in case. Even so, the reports from the front claim the nationalist Azov, for their part, are being torn apart. From Slavyangrad:
I just received good news from the officers who are killing the enemy in Avdeevka. Azov residents are simply rolled into the ground. The neo-Nazis' losses are colossal. They don’t retreat, they remain in their positions as corpses. Soldiers and commanders of the Russian Army, especially after today’s tragedy in Belgorod, are tearing the enemy to pieces. Artillery and aviation are burning enemy positions.
In the north of Avdeevka, west of the coke plant, the Russian flag is already flying. And this means that the noose is tightening. The Avdeevka meat grinder has already become the site of colossal losses for the formations of the Kyiv regime. The situation is such that even if the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decides to withdraw personnel, the flight will be accompanied by significant losses.
Glory to the Russian soldier. Thank you, brothers.
Some last items:
British Intelligence published an official endorsement of Ukraine’s findings that Russia used the Zircon hypersonic missile for the first time in strikes on Kiev:
An earlier Kiev report claimed that they found the missile “did not match the stated characteristics”—a somewhat awkward, if not humorous, assertion given that the missile penetrated Kiev’s formidable air defenses and hit its target.
Next:
Last time I reported on Syrsky and Yermak having Russian relatives still living in Russia. Now the Head of Presidential Office Podolyak has been exposed as not only having an older brother who lives in Russia, but one who may be working in the FSB:
Next:
The American ‘Avenger’ AD system, equipped with Stinger missiles, had an encounter with the Russian Lancet. While the Lancet couldn’t catch the truck, which fled at high speed, the Avenger missiles tried several times to shoot the drone down, missing each attempt:
The Avenger is the same system which failed multiple times in protecting American troops in al-Tanf from various rockets/drones. It seems to be quite a dud.
Lastly:
Putin visited Russia’s premier tank building plant of Uralvagonzavod, inspecting T-90M, T-72BM3, and BMPT Terminator production lines as well as praising workers for their 5x tank output boost:
Noteworthy in light of this is the fact that Western press suddenly bemoaned just how vast Russia’s productive capacities were revealed to be:
All this while Europe and allies circle the drain:
Even a top Ukrainian analyst yesterday admitted that Russia has more modernized tanks now than before 2022, but appears to claim units have fewer tanks due to structure changes—if I’m understanding correctly:
Most striking in all the latest admissions like that of the article above is how closely they match the hubristic revelations of Hitler vis a vis Russia’s productive potentials. Some may have seen the infamous train ride video where a dumbfounded Hitler expresses disbelief at the sheer inhuman scale of Russia’s manufacturing capacities, admitting that if he knew how large their tank factories were before hand, he would have never invaded:
And does this sound familiar, also?
How does the saying go? History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
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I wish they'd stop trying to scare people. My understanding is that Russia wants peace, but the USA doesn't.
The last throws of an empire always defile its own existence.