Out of Options, West Again Floats Flushing Zelensky?
In seeming coordination this week, multiple publications began to throw Zelensky under the bus:
At the same time Seymour Hersh again mounted his oracle pulpit and declared—per his sources—that Zelensky is due to be replaced by Zaluzhny in the near future. Many have criticized Hersh for his record with previous predictions, however last month his prediction of strikes on Iran mere days before they happened did pan out quite accurately.
B at MoA covered this in full, so I don’t need to rehash every detail. But suffice it to say that it accords with Trump’s alleged recent opinion that Zelensky is the ‘main obstacle to peace’, despite new misgivings about Putin. B does point out that Hersh reportedly makes a perplexingly off-target claim about Russian losses, as follows:
I have been provided with new Russian casualty numbers, from carefully evaluated US and British intelligence estimates, that show that Russia has suffered two million casualties—nearly double the current public numbers—since Putin started the war in early 2022.
If the same sources who’ve furnished Hersh with such outlandish casualty figures are the ones who’ve relayed the latest Zelensky intel, then it certainly casts doubt on the rest of their info.
In fact, another round of new body exchanges has shown casualty disparities continuing in the stratospheric range, as Russia gave back 1,000 new bodies to Ukraine, and received 19 in return:
Not to mention head of Ukraine’s prestigious ‘Come Back Alive’ charity Taras Chmut in a new interview admitted that Russian recruitment is higher than its losses, while Ukraine’s is the opposite:
If Russian losses are two million as per Hersh’s sources, then Ukrainian losses must be in the double million digits.
But getting back.
While Trump has not been happy with Zelensky, it begs the question of what, exactly, Zaluzhny can do differently? First of all, it must be reminded that Zaluzhny is really the MI6’s guy, which is why he was sent to act as ambassador to the UK. The UK does not want to end the war, contrary to Trump’s stance. That means if Zaluzhny were to be installed, it would certainly not be for peace purposes, but rather to find new ways of continuation for the war.
The most likely method would be merely to serve as a new PR boost to lift the morale and spirits of the populace, given Zaluzhny’s erstwhile popularity. This would buy the European deep state another half year or so of continuity before the public again slowly sours. Recall that the chief desire from the European deep state is for Ukraine to launch full-scale mobilization of the 18-25 cohort—but Zaluzhny has been on record in the past as against this, and instead seeks more advanced weapons from the West before sacrificing the last fraction of the population.
So unless Zaluzhny has a sudden change of heart, I don’t see how his installation would alter the calculus at all. Russian experts agree, and believe there are other candidates being considered for that very reason:
There are no clear favorites for Zelensky's replacement in the US; besides Zaluzhny, they also meet with Poroshenko and Yermak, political scientist Alexander Asafov told "Zvezda." They are constantly compared sociologically and tested for manageability. Hersh's claims greatly oversimplify the situation.
"Sooner or later, the States will force Zelensky to go through elections. His chances are exactly the same as everyone else with whom discussions are ongoing. To say that Washington has unequivocally backed Zaluzhny is quite a bold simplification," the expert noted.
The candidate is not confirmed because the elections in Ukraine will create a new reality, and the US will again have to make additional efforts, Asafov believes. From the American perspective, their efforts are already excessive and should be handled by Europeans.
Scott Ritter has another idea:
The above may have the right idea. At this point, Trump’s only real imperative is to create perceptions of strength and success in the public eye, and particularly for his opponents in the media. To one extent it, it relates to feeding his ego, and to another it’s simply a consequence of his realization that there’s nothing he can really do to end the war, and so the only remaining impulse is to make sure whatever happens can at least be spun as a personal victory. The 50-day window buys time to allow Trump to look tough with the threat of harsh sanctions, without actually having to follow through with them, in hopes something will flip the calculus by then and save him from having to commit to impossible promises. In short, a wayward, rudderless foreign policy, as always.
Getting someone to replace Zelensky is merely a gambler’s chance: another roll of the die in hopes someone more amenable takes charge. Amenable to what, you ask? To accepting the ‘realities’ even Trump knows are necessary, which Zelensky outright rejected: freezing the conflict at the current line, officially giving up Crimea and other territories, and more such concessions.
Sure, Russia requires far more than this as part of its demands, but Trump is still blind, deaf, and dumb to that—he believes the basic set of concessions from Ukraine—which Zelensky is incapable of accepting—will be enough to mollify Putin. Since Trump does not actually understand the core genesis of the conflict, he’s physically incapable of grasping why Russia requires far greater security guarantees by way of victory terms. American exceptionalism precludes US leaders from ever fundamentally grasping the existential security concerns of other nations; Israel, of course, being the sole exception.
On the front there continues to be talk of a ‘much larger’ Russian offensive, with a claimed 150,000 troops that Russia has positioned for the task. Most of this is bunk, as the troop count refers merely to troops Russia is already using for the purpose. However, it’s true that Russia has not yet maximized the intensity to its fullest. But don’t expect a massive fresh army to suddenly start doing “big arrow”-style pushes everywhere.
CNN’s latest repeats the claim of “160,000 troops”, but also provides some interesting tidbits:
A commander they interviewed confirms that Russia’s summer offensive has not yet peaked:
A Ukrainian commander, who goes by the call sign Musician, and has led a drone company near Pokrovsk since October, told CNN the Russian offensive had been underway for some time. “It has probably not reached its peak yet,” he said, “but they have been advancing for some time and are doing so quite successfully.”
Note the last part.
In fact, the article makes a humorous contradiction. First, they admit Russian forces are conducting ‘logical’ advances to encircle Pokrovsk:
Musician said the defense of Rodynske was key. “The enemy understands this and is counting on it. If they advance from Rodynske, the situation will be critical. There are one or two roads there that they can take control of, and logistics will be cut off. It’s a logical move on the part of the enemy.”
But then they go on to claim that Russia is suffering 90% losses in these recent pushes:
Ukrainian blogger and serviceman Stanislav Buniatov, who goes by the call sign Osman, wrote that the advances bring Moscow’s forces further into the Dnipropetrovsk region, an area not originally part of Putin’s territorial goals. The daily clashes leave “70-90% of the enemy’s personnel and equipment destroyed, but the enemy is advancing, and everyone understands why,” Osman wrote.
The hilarious irony comes next, as they go on to conclude, totally straight-faced, that lies about the front are precisely what’s doing Ukraine in:
Misleading reports from Ukrainian commanders to their superiors were hampering their defense, DeepState posted on Wednesday. “A big part of the enemy’s success is the lies in reports from the field about the real state of affairs, which makes it hard to assess risks and respond to changes in the situation from above… this is a huge problem that has catastrophic consequences. Lies will destroy us all.” The post highlighted the area to the south of Pokrovsk as particularly vulnerable to this internal, Ukrainian failing.
Imagine how propagandized you have to be to not put two and two together; in one sentence, blithely mentioning Russia’s “90% losses” in “otherwise successful assaults”, while in the next admitting that lies are precisely the reason Ukraine is losing.
Face meet palm.
Taras Chmut from another recent interview says that, contrary to the propaganda, the Russians are evolving faster on the battlefield than Ukraine. Listen carefully:
—
To finish off with the front, other Ukrainian sources continue claiming Russia is gearing up for larger movements:
Russia is gathering forces from the rear of the Zaporizhzhia region and preparing for an offensive in the second half of July. This is according to Andryushchenko, an ex-advisor to the fake mayor of Mariupol.
For now there hasn’t been too much new movement on the Zaporozhye front. Only at its eastern end, Russian forces expanded control around Zelene Pole, with some sources claiming Russian units have begun attacking the outskirts of Temyrovka to the west:
Just north of there Russia has had its biggest successes of late. There was a lot of back and forth activity here.
Recall last time Russia had captured Poddubne and was approaching Voskresenka to its south. They managed to fully capture Voskresenka, but then were booted out by a Ukrainian counterattack, though they now hold a portion of the town’s outskirts:
Up north, however, they had success and captured both Tolstoi and most or all—by some accounts—of Novokhatske. Dachne was also mostly taken, while Yalta was taken but again recovered by the AFU in a counterattack. Note that Myrne was also taken just days ago, and now all the fields to its west have been captured to flatten out the line between Voskresenka and Novokhatske.
One of the byproducts of these movements is that Novopavlovka is now also being slowly encircled, like its larger neighbors to the northeast, Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka:
In the area of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration, not much has changed other than Russian forces have fully established themselves on the outskirts of the key center of Rodinske such that cautious map-makers have finally penciled it in:
Top Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov believes the situation is getting critical:
On the Myrnohrad direction, the enemy is approaching Rodynske.
Everything happened too quickly, and now the enemy is practically on the outskirts of the city.
This now creates huge problems for the defense of the entire Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
And if you consider that the enemy is already on the outskirts of Novoekonomichne, the situation can be described as critical.
There are literally subsidence areas everywhere — in the south near the village of Shevchenko, and in the southwest near Kotlyne-Udachne.
The enemy constantly "switches" between the main attack sectors, forcing us only to react.
For now, the initiative is completely with the enemy — we can only react, and that post factum.
At first, they advanced on the Toretsk direction, where they were stopped.
Then there was Sumy region. There, they were also stopped.
And now the enemy again, as in summer-autumn 2024, has directed its main efforts to the Pokrovsk direction.
In all these actions from the Toretsk direction to Pokrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, we constantly shifted forces back and forth. And it kept "breaking through" further.
That's the situation.
Notice the small revelations he makes about the Russian strategy, which we covered here many times before. Due to Russia’s superior logistical abilities, Russia is able to re-deploy its forces all across various fronts much faster, continuously attacking Ukraine where it has the least or weakest units.
He gives another analysis:
On the Pokrovsk direction, where it seemed this spring that there were all chances to hold the agglomeration, the situation has now begun to smell very bad.
The scum are advancing towards the very mine near Pokrovsk.
Also, the enemy is simultaneously advancing towards key points - the routes to Pavlohrad and Dobropillia, and they are having success.
In the event that they cut them off - this is practically an operational encirclement, because narrow rural roads will remain, which are already littered with destroyed cars, especially civilian ones.
The scum don't care who they kill with drones. Everything that moves is already under drone attack.
The situation in the entire direction is critical, and the prospects for our defense at the moment are very unpromising.
And at the same time, I don't see anything at the moment that would change the situation.
Our soldiers are doing much more than their capabilities allow. Therefore, help for our army, especially on the hot directions - is vitally necessary!
Recently the AFU had a string of small tactical successes in counterattacks on various fronts, including the above-mentioned ones. One of the reasons I typically don’t bother posting these is because in almost every case, they are reversed soon after, and thus are transitory.
One recent example of this is in Sumy, where Ukraine counterattacked and pro-UA analysts made a huge rouse about how Russians were “driven out” of Kondritovka, as seen below:
Now only days later, reports indicate Russian forces recaptured all lost positions. This is a typical tactic by Russian troops to briefly abandon positions that are pre-calculated for artillery solutions and let the Ukrainians essentially impale themselves there, then storm back in to clean up. This usually happens each time, which is why it’s pointless reporting on the temporary Ukrainian ‘successes’.
Lastly, on the Konstantinovka front, there is no confirmation yet but some pro-UA sources claim this lower area has fallen:
By the way, Western “analysts” continue to exult over the fact that Russian advances, while continual and relentless, are “tiny” in the overall scheme of things. They show fancy calculations of how at its current pace, Russia is set to take everything up to Kiev in 70 years.
The problem is, Russian advances are not linear, but rather they are going exponential on a yearly scale. This year they are already double that of last year, and given Ukraine’s terminal decline in resources and manpower, it can be expected that they may continue to multiply this way.
Just look at the chart below, with blue lines representing gains from the same time last year, which are always half or less than half of current gains:
If last year averaged around 5km2 per day, and this year is averaging 10-15km2 per day, then what if next year averages 20-30km2 per day, and the year after that 40-60km2? At that exponential rate, Russia would capture everything within a few years, rather than “70” as claimed. Collapse is never linear, just check the earlier chart for body exchanges.
By the way, while everyone anticipates the mythical ‘summer offensive’, in reality Russia has always launched its main, largest offensives—counter-intuitively, it may seem—during late fall and winter, after rasputitsa. Two of the war’s biggest battles, Bakhmut and Avdeevka, both essentially began around October, of 2022 and 2023 respectively, and continued on throughout the winter.
In each case, it was mostly a consequence of Ukraine’s own summer offensives. Russia waited out the Kherson and Kharkov offensives during summer and fall of 2022, then began Bakhmut. In 2023, the famous ‘grand summer counter-offensive’ took up the summer, after which Russia launched the Avdeevka drive in October of that year. In 2024, Ukraine again used the summer to launch its own Kursk offensive in August, and Russia began the Kurakhove line of offensives after first stabilizing Kursk, around October of that year.
Similarly for 2025, Russia is “preparing” the ground for both the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration and Konstantinovka, and I don’t expect they will attempt the final capture of those cities until this winter at the minimum. As such, one or both of those key centers will likely be this winter season’s ‘big battle’ in the tradition of Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and Kurakhove. Although, Pokrovsk has a chance to begin much sooner given the particular precariousness of that encirclement—whereas, Konstantinovka still needs more time to warm in the oven.
Of course, that doesn’t mean there won’t be many other major advances all along the other fronts, particularly on the Donetsk-Dnipro front, where Russian forces will likely continue pushing toward Pavlograd to eventually connect with the Zaporozhye grouping pushing up from the south.
A few last items:
It turned out Trump ‘deceived’ Europe with the Patriot scam, says BILD. No one knows who’s actually sending the Patriots, and the few that may arrive won’t do so for up to 8 months or more:
Trump deceived again: Europe has big problems sending Patriots to Ukraine
The Patriot SAM from Germany for Ukraine will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes citing a source in the German government.
Initially, it was planned that Washington would transfer air defense systems to Ukraine from its own reserves, and Germany would pay for their replenishment. However, Trump stated that the US Army cannot give up a single unit. Europe must provide air defense from its own arsenals.
Thus, the publication writes, paying for weapons for Ukraine is not enough. Europe must dismantle its own stockpiles and order replacements from the American defense industry.
At the same time, Europe is short of air defense. Closed negotiations have been going on for several days about who can help Ukraine.
Currently, according to Bild, a decision is being formed: Switzerland is moving back in the queue for Patriot systems. The first unit will be sent not to Bern, but to Ukraine – at Germany's expense. But the system is still being finalized by the American company Raytheon and will be ready no earlier than in 6-8 months.
Germany corroborated that they had no clue what Patriots they were supposed to be sending, as per Trump:
Just more of the laughable shell game.
—
An extremely revealing story from a Ukrainian officer about a Ukrainian general who watched footage of dead AFU troops, and was flummoxed as to why they weren’t on the attack:
A Ukrainian Armed Forces General, watching a drone video broadcast at headquarters, was surprised that the dead Ukrainian soldiers were lying down and not going on the attack. This was reported by the Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Anton Chorny.
"Well, they are already dead, Mr. General," the drone operator explained to the high command.
—
Lastly, Trump showcased his risible cluelessness—or narcissism, depending on your point of view—by again claiming he will “quickly” destroy the BRICS if they ever pose a threat, and that the BRICS nations are so terrified of Trump they are “virtually afraid to meet”:
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
I hear that Russian losses have hit 120 million, and the whole country has been replaced by North Koreans.
The reason for the panic to remove Z and have elections is to get this going before this gangster regime is actually overthrown.
Western audiences are not being told but western intelligence knows that there is widespread swelling 'sick of this fascist regime and this war' growing ever more ominously in Ukraine. The people are terrified of the gangster regime and its heavies, but all oppressed people have a break point and there is a lot of weaponry swilling around out there. Then it really will all be over. The RF will move in to restore peace and order and then the legal claims against the west including for the return of all Russian assets, will begin, and that is what terrifies the current leaders of western europe whose only hope is to keep the war going in the hope that something will turn up to destroy Russia from within.
This is where we are.