Oreshnik Post-Strike Analysis
The public version.
Now that the smoke has cleared, we can analyze last night’s Russian strikes against Kiev with a little more accuracy.
Firstly, it has come to be known that while Kiev was hammered with an assortment of ballistic and cruise missiles, not to mention drones, the Oreshnik did not actually strike Kiev itself, but rather the neighboring Bila Tserkva airbase not far away from the capital city. This was stated by several sources, both Ukrainian and Russian.
The Western side reports that during a massive missile strike on Kyiv and the region, the Iskander tactical missile system likely hit some industrial facilities in Bila Tserkva, where "sensitive Western weapons" might have been located. What exactly these weapons were and the result of the strike are still unknown. In this regard, information from the Russian Defense Ministry with objective control footage would be useful, but most likely, they will not publish it.
From FighterBomber:
As a response to Starobilsk, an airfield in Bila Tserkva and Kyiv was chosen. Apparently, we hit the airfield with the ‘Oreshnik’, and hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drones.
The strike and the choice of targets for it didn’t bring any surprises.
It turned out to be a military operation with a bonus in the form of the ‘Oreshnik’.
Why the ‘Oreshnik’ didn’t hit Kyiv is pointless to ask, but I think it’s related to its accuracy.
After all, an airfield is a large, flat target, just like a factory, and the likelihood of one of the missiles hitting the wrong place and, God forbid, hitting Zelensky, for example, is minimal.
But the fact that we can afford to hit wherever we want with the ‘Orekhnik’ once every six months is pleasing.
FighterBomber believes the Oreshnik cannot be used on Kiev because it’s not exactly a precision weapon. We’ve analyzed the possibilities before and arrived at the likelihood that the Oreshnik submunitions are not independently maneuverable themselves, but are rather aimed kinetically by their “bus” in outerspace like most nuclear MIRV warheads. This means they are unlikely to achieve true precision on the order of 5-10 meters CEP like Iskanders, Kalibrs, etc.
New footage gives us some idea.
Here’s a foreigner in Kiev filming the strikes from a distance:
And here is a closeup of the impacts in Bila Tserkva which shows the spread of the submunitions just before impact:
Granted, that’s not to say the Oreshnik wouldn’t destroy the target it was pointed at—it’s simply that it would likely destroy quite a few things around that target also. And in a major population center like Kiev, that’s not quite tenable.
Compare to Iran’s most advanced Khorramshahr-4 IRBM:
The groupings of the submunitions appear much more widely dispersed, which appears to indicate the Oreshnik is quite a bit more accurate. A prominent Iranian analyst believes the reason for this is that the Khorramshahr needs to eject its submunitions much earlier in order to prevent US THAAD systems from targeting the entire bus which carries them. This causes them to disperse more widely during re-entry, making them less accurate. Since Russia doesn’t have to contend with true exo-atmospheric ballistic missile defense in Ukraine, it can dial in the submunition release much closer to the ground, making it more precise—at least according to this theory, which is plausible. It’s like shotgun buckshot or birdshot: the closer you fire, the tighter the grouping of pellets.
Here’s a FIRMS map of Kiev that covers the remainder of the attacks:
According to satellite imagery data, fire outbreaks have been observed in the vicinity of the following important objects in Kyiv and its surroundings:
▪️ workshops of the Artem defense enterprise, specializing in the production of missiles;
▪️ an industrial zone in the Darnytsia district of Kyiv;
▪️ workshops of the Analitpribor plant, specializing in analytical and measuring equipment, as well as the former Relay and Automation plant;
▪️ a warehouse of the ATB company on the western outskirts of Kyiv;
▪️ the vicinity of the SBU building in the Podilskyi district of Kyiv.
Another interesting aspect was the announcement by Ukraine that Russia began to strike Kiev’s water supply facilities:
Russia has started to strike at water supply facilities of the capital — several missile strikes have damaged the Bortnytska aeration station.
⭕️This is the only large wastewater treatment plant in Kyiv and parts of the region's settlements. Damage or destruction of the facility will have catastrophic consequences.
If true, it would represent another small milestone in a potential “gloves-off” shift of strategies from the Kremlin.
Additional Kiev strike footage:
There may be more attacks with “Orekhnik”. Russia has increased the production of this ballistic missile system, - Defence Express
Russia also allegedly fired a ground-based hypersonic Zircon for the first time last night:
Ukraine’s air defense chief Ignat: The only new thing in last night’s strikes was Russia launching Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles from Kursk. Everything else we’ve seen before and are effectively countering.
As most know, the Zircon has been a ship-fired missile system but Russia had planned to create a ground version for a while now, and apparently—if the reports are true—it is now operational. This is relatively significant because it means the Zircon can now become a much more unpredictable system, fired from any direction rather than only from the exact same launch box in the Black Sea.
A Ukrainian channel’s account of the night time strikes:
For those that read the premium piece yesterday and recall my theory that Zelensky and his gang likely provokes such Russian attacks—Oreshnik and all—on purpose because it suits the political agenda to paint Russia as an aggressive force hellbent on destroying civilian cities. Medvedev earlier appeared to share that opinion almost verbatim in his own post.
But he poses an interesting conundrum: since Zelensky’s very intention is to provoke these reprisal strikes, does that mean Russia should not strike at all? He answers it decisively:
Dmitry Medvedev:
The drug-addicted freak and his Bandera-affiliated gang have provoked a harsh response from Russia with their terrorist attacks on children.
Apparently, this was intentional. They needed to trigger massive strikes against the structures located in Kiev.
Let everything burn! It’s easier to beg for money and weapons this way. It’s easier to steal. It’s easier to make excuses. Especially since our strikes might help consolidate part of the electorate around the current despicable Kiev regime. Which, of course, is important for it in the upcoming elections in country 404.
So what, not to strike at all to avoid provoking the strengthening of the neo-Nazi regime?
No, of course not. We need to strike - as we are doing today, and even much more forcefully! After all, the ruins and gray ashes in the place of their capital’s symbols demoralize the enemy no less than the loss of a battle standard.
What do you think?
Lastly, a memorial of confirmed victims of Ukraine’s attack on the Starobelsk college in Lugansk:
Note the many Ukrainian names of the deceased above. These are the same ‘children’ the West was claiming Russia “stole from Ukraine”, and was so adamant about protecting and returning. Yet when they get slaughtered by those very Ukrainians, suddenly there’s not a peep.
The West’s top press agencies had no interest to visit the crime scene:
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
The talk about war has become a terrible normal thing. One should expect outrage at the killing of so many people that want nothing but living a good life, build by their own hands. They want to love, to be loved and enjoy what life has to offer. Just some of us take their life's because they can - we are no humans, we are barbaric monsters.
"Granted, that’s not to say the Oreshnik wouldn’t destroy the target it was pointed at—it’s simply that it would likely destroy quite a few things around that target also. And in a major population center like Kiev, that’s not quite tenable."
It absolutely is tenable. What isn't tenable is Zelensky's continued existence and European and American freedom to wage war on Russia without retaliation.
About civilian deaths, the west obviously loves inflicting those and the Ukrainian press is full of talk about the barbaric Russians murdering civilians anyway, so it isn't *politically* untenable. And plenty of civilians are dying in many ways in this war, including from lack of energy no doubt as well as the numerous strikes Ukraine is intentionally directing towards Russian civilians (don't they count??), so actually trying to win the war isn't morally untenable either.
Putin better get on with it. The risk of losing this war is palpable even if unseen by most of the people who will read this comment.