New Ukrainian Missile Threat: Another Empty Hype-Train?

In the aftermath of the negotiations shuffle, Ukraine has intensified a new campaign of infrastructure strikes against Russia. This has come amidst a spate of announcements about various new Ukrainian long-range weapons systems reportedly nearing introduction into the AFU’s arsenal. This includes the so-called ‘Flamingo’ and the new ERAM missiles promised by the US—but we’ll get to those later.

The intensified strikes Ukraine has already been conducting with its own standard arsenal of drones has included faraway Russian refineries, and the Druzbha pipeline which brings oil to Europe, and particularly Hungary and Slovakia. The latter make it obvious why the strikes were organized, as Hungary’s Orban and Slovakia’s Fico represent two of the biggest thorns in Ukraine’s side when it comes to Zelensky’s various EU-related pipe dreams and assorted anti-Russian initiatives.

As a tangential note, let us mention something about the effects of these strikes. As most know, doomers and concern-trolls alike constantly try to play up these attacks as somehow devastating to Russia, ignoring how quickly most of them are repaired, and how inconsequential they are in the grand scheme of things. As poignant example of this, here is Hungarian FM Peter Szijjarto’s statement regarding the Druzbha strikes—take note of the first sentence:

It was confirmed a couple days later that the pipeline was quickly restored and put back into operation:

https://tass.com/world/2008319

BUDAPEST, August 28. /TASS/. Oil supplies from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline, which had come under attack by the Ukrainian armed forces, have been restored, according to Hungarian company MOL, which receives crude oil through this route for its refineries.

And keep in mind, this Bryansk pumping station point of the pipeline was hit not once, but three times in the span between August 12th and 23rd, and even the damage from this score of strikes was able to be restored in six days. Granted, those six days reportedly still left Hungary and Slovakia critically low on oil, but it simply goes to show how ultimately inconsequential and fleeting many of these strikes are, producing little more than brief PR moments.

Also on that count, this week saw a new Carnegie Endowment report which admitted that Ukraine’s wide-spread campaign of strikes against Russian oil terminals has not drastically changed the situation in Russia, contrary to pro-UA reports that Russia is spiraling into a gas crisis and fuel shortages:

"Right now, the situation looks challenging but manageable. Most of the refineries that have been hit by Ukrainian drones continue to produce gasoline, albeit in reduced quantities. It has also been possible to redirect gasoline from unaffected regions, and some of the deficit has been eased by tapping state reserves.

Note this particularly significant portion from the report, vis-a-vis the strikes affecting Russia’s military capabilities:

It’s important to remember that a lot of Russian vehicles and military equipment run on diesel, not gasoline, and Russia has a diesel surplus. Accordingly, the sort of full-scale fuel crisis that could end up impairing the functioning of the economy—or the army—is still a long way off...

That said, larger shortages could push the government to more extreme steps... For now, however, none of this appears imminent. There is still a long way to go before the transport, agriculture, and industrial sectors—or, most importantly, the army—experience any significant fuel shortages."

But we shouldn’t jump from one extreme to the other—the strikes certainly are doing damage, but those with an agenda to grind simply wish to vastly exaggerate the damage to spin a narrative about some imminent collapse or moment of ‘reckoning’ that will hit Putin or Russia in the near future. None of this is true.

Now, as for the alleged long-range strike systems Ukraine is on the cusp of obtaining, there is some debunking to be done there as well.

First, let’s start with the so-called ‘Flamingo’ system, which according to many reports turned out to actually be the British-Emirati FP-5 from the Milanion Group.

Earlier, it was reported that Western countries may supply their own missiles to Ukraine, passing them off as Ukrainian developments. Therefore, it is possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon receive more missiles that are identical to the German Taurus missiles.

Earlier today Ukraine released footage of three such ‘Flamingos’ being fired at the same time, in order to signal some sort of ‘mass strike’ capability:

Apparently to deflect links to the British missile, Ukraine released faked photos of the Flamingo being manufactured in what was claimed to be a Ukrainian production line. But not long after this, intrepid Russian investigators geolocated the building from clues in the photos and found that the building was being offered for rentals on a warehouse rental site, leading to the conclusion that Ukraine had rented the site to stage these already-made missiles there in order to portray it as an indigenous manufacturing line:

While the missile’s warhead size and power are formidable, we can guess that if speculation is true about its real manufacturing origins, the total numbers produced will not possibly be high enough to affect much, given known production limitations of Western countries like the UK. The rumors claim 50 per month manufacturing capacity, but this is likely very optimistic.

But of course, missiles of this sort are not meant to damage actual critical infrastructure—particularly of the military variety. No, their sole goal would be to create politically expedient PR moments, like a hit on the Kremlin or something of that sort, hoping to change the calculus of the war by making Putin act out of character.

Also, it should be mentioned the missile is extremely large, not particularly fast, does not appear to have any advanced guidance that allows it to fly low and stealthy, using terrain mapping, etc., which means it will likely be quite easy to detect on radars and should, in theory, be an ideal and easy target for Russian air defense. Recall Russia had begun routinely shooting down the West’s most advanced stealthy cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow, which means this bargain bin “low-cost” dump truck of a missile should be Pantsir-fodder.

As for the ERAM missile, its pedigree and viability are even murkier.

Touted as part of a program meant specifically to create a basic, ‘low-cost’, no-frills cruise missile that is just “good enough”, it seems on paper perfect for Ukraine’s needs. Unfortunately, according to some reports, this missile exists entirely ‘on paper’.

The Russian Dzen outlet writes just that:

But here's the catch: this "black" missile, which the Western media is trumpeting, seems to exist only in the Pentagon's dreams and on the pages of newspapers.

They believe that the missile has not even finished testing, let alone begun any sort of mass production, contrary to overzealous reports:

Moreover, the Pentagon has not yet identified a manufacturer, and ERAM tests, according to publicly available data, have not yet been completed. Even if production has begun, producing 3,350 missiles in a few years is a monumental task, not to mention the six weeks mentioned by the WSJ.

It sounds like more of the same, in accordance with many of the recent reports that now routinely promise some large number of systems—like the German Patriots, etc.—only to conceal the ‘fine print’ at the bottom: that the delivery timeframe is that of years, and Ukraine will not actually receive an appreciable amount of the systems until closer to 2030, etc.

For instance, this official State Department release curiously states that they have made a “possible” approval, with Ukraine merely “requesting” the stated amount of missiles, which all sounds very tentative and perhaps conditional:

And let’s not forget the simultaneously contradictory announcement that Ukraine’s long-range strikes using US systems or assets have allegedly been blocked:

What to make of the contradiction? Even if it’s true that Ukraine will receive these phantom missiles which may or may not actually exist, we can assume perhaps Trump again wants to ‘sit in two chairs’ by appeasing the neocon crowd with the weapons delivery, yet simultaneously not angering Russia by then disallowing Ukraine from actually using the delivered weapons, at least on Russian territory. But to be honest, the sudden appearance of both missiles, coinciding with various PR pushes, make the missiles seem more like boondoggles that will never actually see the light of day—kind of like the F-16s, which were technically ‘delivered’ in some kind of number long ago, yet have not actually done much of anything.

Russia, on the other hand, continues to use its own strike systems to decimate Ukraine’s various production facilities. Recall the recent ‘provocative’ strikes which destroyed the American electronics factory in western Ukraine. Not long before that, there was a series of strikes that reportedly devastated Ukraine’s attempt at a different indigenous ballistic missile system:

The FSB reports that a high-precision strike on underground workshops in Pavlograd disrupted Ukraine's production of Sapsan ballistic operational-tactical missile systems. They wanted to use operational-tactical missiles for strikes in the depths of Russia.

There have also been reports of repeated strikes on Shostka in the Sumy region, where a lot of supplies are produced for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Now, during the large-scale Kiev strikes several days ago, Russia reportedly destroyed a Turkish production facility for producing Bayraktar drones:

New details on the night strikes in Kyiv It turns out that the "Bayraktar" factory was also hit.

According to available information, the factory was hit twice, resulting in serious damage to the production facilities.

But the most amazing part is one that answers a long-standing question many have posed about why Russia allows these facilities to sit for so long before hitting them. It turns out the facility was literally set to be launched in August, after being under construction since last year:

The manufacturer of the famous Bayraktar TB2 UAVs planned to build a drone production plant on the territory of Ukraine back in 2022, and the construction itself was launched at the beginning of 2024 with the expected readiness of the enterprise by August 2025. Apparently, there will be problems with readiness.

According to some reports, today's strike was already the 4th in the last 6 months

Proof from an article dated October 2024:

And here is one analyst’s write up which explains Russia’s philosophy behind the timing of such strikes:

"Although the strikes are not hitting hypothetical workshops "for the future," but exactly where the "respected partners" very much want to start earning, apparently there is a game of "who outsmarts whom." And in this game, regularly using missiles to delay or disrupt the next stage of construction, in our opinion, is not very reasonable and it might be necessary to change the approach.

The "interaction" method in this regard can be adopted from the German (or American) tax police. They operate like this: the potential "contact" object is allowed to spend/invest illegally earned money, carefully recording where it goes and where it is invested, without making decisions that might "scare off" the target. Then, after a couple of years, the investigation target is arrested and everything reachable is seized. Russian missile forces and intelligence should also allow one or several targets to "fatten up," have interested parties invest resources, organize a site, bring in equipment, and then liquidate the assets with a single strike.

The Turks, of course, are stubborn people, and they did not abandon the construction of the Bayraktar plant in Kyiv after four strikes. Theoretically, they will try to complete it, but the prospects for its stable operation are zero. And everyone understands this. Systematic strikes on Kyiv show that any arms production on Ukrainian territory is in a zone of constant risk.

As for the plant, it was planned to be put into operation "after the end of hostilities," with technical readiness planned for 2025, but there is a feeling that the ceremonial ribbon-cutting will not happen."

He appears to be suggesting Russia should allow such projects to ‘fatten up’ even more, but as I understand it, Russia did pretty much as he suggests—and this is the crux of the technique. Russia did not strike the ‘groundbreaking’ ceremony in 2024, nor the laying of the site’s foundation.

No, Russia waited for all the project’s finances to be invested, everything built up to a shiny finish, and then virtually on the inaugural day, Russia blew it apart, turning the many years of effort and countless invested millions into ash at the drop of a dime.

But before you celebrate, know that this was likely the plan all along, and the Ukrainians involved infact outsmarted all involved ‘colleagues’ and counterparts.

You see, anyone with half a brain would surely know and expect any such production facilities, particularly so close to the front, as having no possible chance of survival beyond their launch day. That means the facilities were likely constructed with the very intent of being expendable write-offs, with only embezzlement and enrichment by the involved planners sufficing as the true motive behind knocking together such obviously juicy targets.

In the end, the joke’s on Russia, and in this case Turkey. The factories may be destroyed, but some very rich Ukrainian “business partners” who got fat from the embezzled construction contracts are laughing their way to the bank.

---

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

---