He's actually been losing weight lately. He looks better than he did in 2020. But that isn't necessarily a good thing - I have found that older people start losing a lot of weight before they pass.
Overall it seems the Russians have upped the pressure even more. Simplicius didn't mention the front west of Pokrovsk. After getting bogged down in January and standing their ground during multiple counter attacks the Russians seem to have the initiative again. Only a few kilometres to the largest lithium reserve on Europe. Earlier in the week they took another lithium mine north of Velyka Novosilka.
what astonishes me about this war is the size of the material losses. Only in Kursk Ukraine-NATO has lost more than 900 armed vehicles, which raises the total amount of armed vehicles losses to 20+ thousand. Just think about it. A country like France or Germany are supposed to have no more than 3 thousand IFV each ! This confirms the Ukranian war has been a new collective Lebensraum assault on Russia which by the way is fading everyday. The very globalist sionist FT no longer mentions Ukraine AT ALL. Van der Liar is struggling to deal with Trump's tariff blitzkrieg and still needs to feed the Ukranian blackhole every single day. Of course, the British could try a new spectacular stun to bring Ukraine to the headlines, but it seems unlikely, with Trump visibly moving away from that pain in the ass and focusing on a hotter potato like Iran.
In my opinion the situation for the Kievan Junta is worse than we think. Aid is shrinking, attention is fading, the front is collapsing. Its uncomprehensible the AFU and the Kievan Junta are still standing.
<Its uncomprehensible the AFU and the Kievan Junta are still standing.>
Part of the explanation may be that the present leaders in Kiev, who aren't ethnic Ukrainians for the most part, don't give a damn about the Ukrainian nation and its future. They are willing to tolerate losses in lives, material and infrastructure which normal, caring leaders would not even think of tolerating.
“The head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sees a connection between the wars Ukraine and Israel are fighting.
At a festive banquet held at Kyiv's central synagogue, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, lit the second Hanukkah candle on the menorah alongside Vitali Klitschko, the Chief Rabbi, and the Israeli ambassador.
Before the ceremony, Budanov addressed the banquet participants with a formal speech. Among other remarks, he stated, "The flame of this candle will illuminate our future victory – both ours and that of the State of Israel."https://spzh.eu/en/
Now if Putin could figure this out... Actually Israel is the biggest TERRORIST THREAT to the UNITED STATES. Look at 911 and Kennedy new assassination information.
Here is a judeo-banderite’s devotional speech for his overlords:
“At a festive banquet held at Kyiv's central synagogue, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, lit the second Hanukkah candle on the menorah alongside Vitali Klitschko, the Chief Rabbi, and the Israeli ambassador.
Before the ceremony, Budanov addressed the banquet participants with a formal speech. Among other remarks, he stated, "The flame of this candle will illuminate our future victory – both ours and that of the State of Israel."
"A story is spreading in Ukrainian channels that the Russian army is using micro-submarines to transfer infantry and ammunition to the bridgehead on the western bank of Oskol." - I doubt Oskol is deep enough for even mini submarines.
You completely lost the thread of conversation. It was about how Russians move their troops to the point where they seem to appear from "nowhere" - they can't do it on the surface, hence under the water, but Oskol is shallow.
Not sonar detectible, maybe with a MRI scanner? They carry a crew of 4 men and a beautiful girl. They are small enough to navigate inside your blood vessels, where the crew can destroy a blood clot in your brain with lasers.
Propulsion 32 hp (24 kW) Otto petrol engine, 13 hp (9.7 kW) electric motor,
Speed
6.5 knots (12.0 km/h) surfaced
5.3 knots (9.8 km/h) submerged
They were made in about 6 weeks in 1944. The Russians have had plenty of time and have plenty of incentive to develop some sort of stealth transport for the inland waterways.
The talk of using mini submarines is Ukrainian propaganda for western morons. It's really a shame the people reading this sub take it as a possibility.
The Oskol river is only 2. 5 to three meters deep, with a maximum depth of 10 meters in a very few places. Those depths are easily forded by Russian armor using standard Russian underwater snorkel / fording techniques. The practice also is called "deep wading" in the west and a typical Russian tank like a T-72 can handle rivers five meters (over sixteen feet) deep. Newer tanks can go deeper, as can some armored personnel carriers.
Russia is unusual in that each and every Russian tank crew practices underwater fording and has demonstrated their ability to rig up a snorkel and drive down into a river and cross it underwater and then come back up the other side. They have to demonstrate that to graduate from tank school. They don't need bridges for small rivers like the Oskol.
American forces no longer do underwater fording outside of actual war. They think it's too dangerous to practice in peacetime. The Russians don't. Instead, they have good gear (like emergency rebreathers built into inflatable life vests) the crew can use to get to safety if the tank gets stuck mid-river. They then recover the tank and refurb it. Guys who have done it say it's scary the first time but then you get used to it and it's no big deal.
I've talked to some of them. I've also talked to guys in Russian paratroop forces who have parachuted in a tank. Russia has light tanks and other armored vehicles that paratroop forces use. Unlike the US, where they drop such tanks separately from their crews and the crew then has to find the tank, get to it, and get it rigged up, Russian paratroopers fly into combat sitting inside their tanks.
They drop inside the tank so when it lands they're ready to roll right into combat. The guys that do that say it is definitely tense the first time but after you do it once they much prefer dropping in the tank ready to go. For starters, you don't have to worry about getting beat up by dropping into a tree as the tank around you protects you when you're landing.
Russian paratroopers wearing wingsuits and invisibility cloaks?
I’m only half joking. Wingsuits can carry a paratrooper nearly 20 miles from a drop at 30,000 feet. More conventional High Altitude Low Opening methods might also work if chutes are opened at a thousand feet or so (which is not for the feint of heart). I may have missed hearing about the use of paratroops in the SMO, but the absence of their mention seems conspicuous. I’m fairly sure the Russians have inserted special operators this way, if for no other reason than to test methods.
Also, what if the Russian cyber nerds have a method of spoofing the video feeds of those Magyar drones?
Or, speaking of tunnels, do we know if Elon sold any Boring Machines to the Russians?
Obviously, we aren’t going to hear about these kinds of special methods and operations until the military history books are written sometime in the far future.
Perhaps they are using something invented by the drug cartels for importing their "product" . It appears that a few Columbians are fighting for Ukraine...
@Mark, wasn't it the Ukrainian press speculating that Russia transfers its troops in these "mini-submarines" through the Oskol River? How do Columbians fighting for Ukraine fit into the above scenario? If Russia uses these mini Flying Dutchmen, most likely, they'd be of Russian design/make:-)
The Russians are not above using a good idea , and would have researched what tech was working . The cartels have had to innovate their equipment to avoid detection and that is what the Russians would need . I was speculating that some of the Columbians who were captured may have had knowledge of these vessels . Just sayin...
>He claims Ukraine’s destruction of the Russian Toropets arsenal in September 2024 caused Russia to halve its shell usage
Which once again brings us to the question of how it is possible for a couple "drones" carrying 10-20 kg of explosive to destroy dozens of hardened ammunition storage hangars, separated 40-50 meters from each other?
Nobody has provided a satisfactory explanation to this day...
Look at the strike on the fiber optic plant in Saransk. Those were heavy drones and the one carrying a FAB-250 seems to have destroyed the engineering room, but the one that hit the tall building just burned the wall, didn't really penetrate much.
But the hardened shelters designed to withstand a low-yield tactical nuke strike all exploded at once?
Well a Ukrainian general can claim anything, it's not like he is burdened by truth. If Russian artillery strikes were reduced by half it could be for many different variables, stockpiling for future use; shortage of Ukrainian targets; increased use of drones; or basically a change of strategy. A Ukrainian drone dropping a Russian 250kg fab bomb is ridiculous. Call the bomb something else as to gain glide capability the drone would need to acquire altitude and speed to give glide capability. So the drone dropped a gravity bomb or maybe you can claim a JDAM or JASSM Ukraine found a way to fire a western cruise missiles from a drone that would give a more credible argument.
Well a drone dropped something. If it's a Ukrainian video it's probably heavily edited; done with a green screen with the help of someone with much experience in special effect. Please link the video.
As this information is from the Ukrainians, it can be true, but our experience tells us, there is a high chance that this is propaganda. Therefore I do not make any further conclusions.
Syrsky can of course tell us fairy-tales but why be so specific?
If ammunition is nearly halved?! from 40 000/day to 27 000 we are talking of 1,8 million of shells lost in Toropets… Ukraine claim they destroyed 30 000 tonnes of explosives. And they have claimed it was Grad-ammunition and S300,400 and Iskanders, not artillery. The explosions were clearly not artillery shells.
Still we dont have any good explanations of how that catastrophe was achieved. It wasnt Nukes, GM, but they must have used a lot of Palianytsias (their own cruiser/drone) and extensive help from West.
For the record. The Shelters did not explode at once.
you are on to something, here. But keep your cool and do not let your reasonable worries turn into paranoia that can be used, and is used in psychological warfare.
US did prop up Ukrainian army in all possible ways,
creating it, supplying it with weapons, organising command structure, and taking command structure into its own hands. It was a surprise in 2022.
Russia answered by mobilising army, economy, society and starting to fight a real war, US continued to add more and more potent weapons, HIMARS, ATACAMS, F 16,
but it was not enough, Ukraine kept losing on the battlefield
US had to use US weapons against Russian territory (Toropets?)
It was a red line, and Russia communicated it to US, (stop it or it is a real war...i.e. nuclear) US stopped.
US continues supplying weapons, that were decided by Biden, but had not made any new decisions,
War is a clash of wills, Putin demands a real peace agreement, not just a ceasefire, that can be turned into South Korean stalemate, or ignited again in future,
(no NATO, neutral status, withdrawing from 4 oblast, peace agreement)
that is from the point of Ukrainian leadership, US, and NATO a clear defeat, accepting that Ukraine will never again be used as a proxy against Russia,
There is nothing short of US or NATO entering the war openly that can change the trajectory of the lost war. As long as the war is raging, US, NATO, West cannot keep up, and Ukraine will keep losing.
US and NATO are not willing to openly enter the war. And not willing to accept defeat, either.
The weakest link now, is Ukrainian side, in the long run is the number of soldiers, in the short run, until summer, or autumn in its psychological resilience. That is why all Europeans are promising support, to keep Ukraine running the war.
On the Russian side potential weak spot is the price of oil and gas, support of the BRICS, i.e. India.
War is the answer, no one else can give us the answer .
One addenda; the West favour the war continuing, and they might prefer it if to 'win' Russia is forced to take the western and pro-Western oblasts. And to face the inevitable 'Left behind' terror. Russia's ace card is that by then Odessa will be liberated to Russia forever, unless the West comes to its senses and drops this 'World Domination' idiocy 'game', and comes to a sensible deal that involves mutual security for all.
If Trump is dumb enough to attack Iran and oil goes to $400 Putin can buy Americans even for his war. Be funny to see former blackwaters who were paid 12-25K mo fighting in Russia.
My thoughts on Toropets was that it was hit at the perfect time as one or more storage bunkers could have had its doors open to receive more munitions. To me it was a stunning display of the ISR overmatch that NATO brings to the table, hitting within maybe a 15min window. Another example is baiting and destroying of RU AWAC assets to allow NATO to continue to use fighter jets close to the front line in shoot-n-scoot missile attacks.
I am starting to believe something else is going on the longer this goes on as these heavy drones are now hitting 2000+ kms inside Russia, showing that NATO ISR can map a plane through 2000km of Russian air defence. I would say its only a matter of time before they hit something important, but then again Russia loves to 'absorb' the punches don't they.
As for the nuke suggested use, I can't discount 100% as I am sure there are Fusion or Neutron bombs afoot that would give off little radiation if they were small and the western press would not report as the CIA would never give them the story. Or maybe a weapon not seen before (I mean is all that DARPA $ wasted?).
I do long for the days when I thought I knew what was going on in the world. With all the propaganda, AI fakery and people lying to your face or telling narcissists they live in a matrix, its tough to be 100% about anything anymore.
Popcorn has been purchased. Now I sit back and wait for the impending offensive. Would be nice if they used a couple of Oreshniks to start it all off with a bang.
Other than Ramstein AFB, Mi6 HQ, NATO HQ, and Diego Garcia it is hard to think of any targets worthy of an Oreshnik. But right now the combined west is self destructing, so it is better to pretend to care what DJT thinks.
You must have been in hibernation for the past three years. Not one Russian has ever said that they would crush Ukraine in a short period of time. That was all West propaganda. "3 days to take Kyiv." Russian forces were small at the beginning. Likely in the 150,000 range. Ukraine conversely had over 500,000 in the AFU. After the Ukes wouldn't sign the Istanbul peace treaty, Russia wisely pulled back, set up defenses, mobilized and recruited to now where they have a significant advantage. In the meantime Ukraine has suffered a minimum of 1.2 million KIA, at least that many wounded and throw their best men and resources into an idiotic attack in Kursk. I won't need anything more than popcorn because once the offensive gets rolling, the AFU will fold like a cheap tent.
Then tell me something Field Marshall Denis. How exactly a Russian General should have been sitting at Zelenskyy's desk smoking a big cigar and sipping cognac a long time ago. I await your "brilliant" military strategy.
As they say in Texas and as I expected, you are all hat and no cattle. I suppose Field Marshall Denis struggles to respond coherently when he is stuck in his mom's basement playing Call of Duty.
Budanov has openly showed his subservience to Jews. Have you seen what jews have been doing in Palestine? This is a real troglodyte war by people with a dominating reptilian brain. Both zionists and banderites have shown a total disregard for human life. How would you deal with this subhuman refuse?
Russians tried to prevent the madness. In comparison, jews and their spiritual twins the neo-Nazis revel in sadism.
Ukraine has been owned by jews for more than 30 years. At some time it even boasted jewish president and jewish prime minister, similar to the fascist jewish state. Neither of the two psychopathic cults - zionists and Ukrainian neonazis -will stop running their supremacist mass slaughters until they are physically destroyed. And don’t forget that the Nazification of Ukraine has been accomplished under the Russophobic and Slavophobic Jews in Ukraine and US State Dept.
The way this is worded it almost sounds like Russia knew they would not succeed but attacked anyway so that they could use it as the cause to which to rebuild the Russian armed forces. This usually means more government control and some elites get stinking rich.
I am told Russia has spies and informants throughout Ukraine so how did they get it so wrong as to attack 500K with 150K and think they would win?
At that point, before RU withdrew from Kiev they should have tossed down a few tactical nukes. It could have saved a million Ukrainian lives. I'll also add that this was the analogy used by USA to flatten two Japanese cities with nukes and the 'to save lives' reasoning is still used to this day as a positive.
There will be no grand offensives anymore in this drone infested SMO.
You must have been hibernating for the last three years as well. The Russian plan was to get the Ukrainians to a negotiating table and get a peace deal signed. They succeeded within the first month of the SMO. Ukraine representatives initialed the deal. In early April Boris Johnson went to Kyiv and talked The coke snorting clown Zelenskyy out of it. Russia even out of good faith pulled troops away from the outskirts of Kyiv. The goal all along has had three main components. Demilitarization, denazification and neutrality (no NATO). All of that was agreed to in the Istanbul Agreement. When Ukraine walked away from it, Russia reassessed, withdrew to easily defended lines and built up their military. Nothing unusual about that. The mistake made by Putin and the Russians was thinking Ukraine and the West would want peace. They won’t be fooled again.
While your hypothesis of the Russians lopping a few tactical nukes onto Ukraine might work, I would think a couple of monster mega ton yields on Washington DC would've also come in handy. It would save millions of lives in the long run...
There was nothing positive about burning alive hundreds of thousands of civilians of all ages. Though it was “positive” for certain Jacob Beser who participated in the bombings of both Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He then boasted about his exploits while giving talks at various jewish centers in the US. He was a jew by the way.
Most people with zero ability for strategic analysis believe this. It's highly likely that this will continue for several more years since the actual goal is to demilitarize the EU and all of NATO.
The problem with Ukrainian reportage is that it is all propaganda. Ukraine has an interest in talking up actual-feared Russian advances to suck in more western dosh and weaponry and ideally troops.
Tanking equities, which markets had sucked in ridiculous digital wealth, was the west's way of trying to drive funds pulled out (real money for a moment) into bonds, the usual safe haven, buying western debt and so bringing down interest rates which would have bailed out the UK in particular desperate for its own domestic savings to leave well paying cash savings for the property market- the engine of its economy. But US debt is in a bad place too and about to go to a worse place if China dumps it. European debt is dependent on US life support.
The trick did not work because those with an interest in equities not to mention international trade, had the power to prevent the shift and used it, so the strategy was pulled. Meh, just joking, Trump said as he slashed the tariffs with the same gay abandon he had hiked them.
The western hegemon- AKA the US- has far more to worry about than Ukraine which could all go Russian for all that matters anymore. Trump would do a mineral trade deal with Putin (in return for sanctions lifting across the board and a promise not to stoke further unrest in China's sphere of interest). It is impossible to believe that the Trump camp really thinks any independent Ukraine to emerge from it's ashes would honour any deal to hand over Ukraine's sole source of international value. It will keep trying to leverage it for whatever, over and over again, while its own mafiosi always has first dibs.The current gangster regime is not in a position to agree anything that could possibly be honoured- economically or militarily, which is why it is tagging onto the deal promises from the west that it will not be able to so easily dump. Western troops and more weapons etc will already have gone in and everything will have changed.
The US , meanwhile, is looking for a way to steal a march on this and somehow install a puppet regime that really will do its bidding and that Russia will swallow even as a whole new decade's worth of plans are rolled out for a new attack on Russia down the line. Russia knows it has to take all Ukraine if not militarily then through turning its government and hence its people, driving out the west entirely. This would be easy if only Trump would turn off the spigot paying Ukrainian pensions etc.
In this uneasy stand off one sudden major black swan event can change everything. All it is going to take is for Ukraine to overstep the mark, with the west pulling out of Ukraine on the back of that, consequent to Russia's agreement not to inflict the retaliation it could. Everyone is waiting for this Ukrainian mistake now.
The main reason Trump held back on most of his tariffs is related to the precipitous decline of all the major stock markets. Markets have recovered somewhat since Trump's 90-day delay but there is so much uncertainty in the air markets are expected to be highly volatile. That's why gold is at $3,215 US per oz.
You may be right ... but consider the alternative to what you wrote. Assume for the minute that he 'want's to break down the 'Clown World' economy (i.e. the over-financialized, big-money-dominated economy that dominates the US and the rest of the "West" and that "dominates' the Global South and emerging world. Big assumption I know but go with it for a minute). How would you go about doing that if that were your goal? Would very small incremental steps get you there? (Answer: Likely not -- those steps would be opposed before sufficient change could be enacted). However, is the converse true? (i.e. Would you need to change everything overnight in one giant leap? Answer: probably not because although you want the system to change -- and change fundamentally -- you can't have a total meltdown either). Therefore, what you might see happen is a series of 'bold, unprecedented moves' that take the 'old system' right to the brink of breakdown -- and then back off a tad to prevent total collapse -- followed by additional 'bold, unprecedented moves' later (along the same avenue of approach -- or adjacent ones -- to nudge the system toward the direction you want it to go). The point is to create enough instability to allow for change -- but not too much to cause collapse. This is what you might be seeing going on right now. No guarantees of course -- but you could squint and perhaps make-out that this kind of 'move -- instability -- temporary pause -- more instability etc' is what might be going on.
By all means, believe what you want to believe -- I am not trying to get you to buy-into any particular narrative. You pointed out something and in effect said 'see this claim about Trump can't be true' -- and I am merely pointing out that the 'evidence' you cited isn't sufficient to support your claim (or disprove the counter to that claim). Your claim that 'he's a fraud' may be true -- but the scientific method is not about making a claim and defending it, instead the actual scientific method is to make a claim and then try to debunk your own claim (by finding plausible evidence, logic, and argument to disprove or shed doubt on your own statement). You make a claim "he's fake and can't be trying to undermine the system' -- I am merely showing you a (at least somewhat credible) argument that he may, in fact, be doing exactly the opposite of your claim. Furthermore, showing that a credible argument opposite to your claim doesn't prove the counter-argument either --- it just shows that your original statement isn't definitively 'right'.
At the end of the day, people are free to hold any opinion they want (e.g. 'I claim all apples taste exactly like onions') -- but people making such statements are not really making a credible, defensible claims on the nature of reality.
I think that is a very plausible theory of what is going on: Trump is 'throwing down' against the Chinese and BRICS (either to send a message or to maintain or re-assert US dominance economically, politically, diplomatically, and militarily.
If you want to take that line of reasoning even further, there are even more 'rabbit holes' you can go down. For example, there is (allegedly) 'non-public' data available to show that China has in fact been active in covert, 'non-kinetic' warfare against the US (e.g. perhaps in the form of overt election interference or perhaps official blackmail/corruption at very high levels of government, serious industrial espionage/sabotage etc). There are all kinds of 'theories' out there. I personally don't believe any of them -- nor, however, do I discount them entirely -- it is up to you how much you want to dig and how much you want to dismiss as 'unsupportable' or 'unlikely'. The point I am trying to make is that it may not be clear, in an era of Fifth Generation (Informational) Warfare, when you are 'in a war' between nation states --- the absence of 'kinetic' explosions does not necessarily mean you are 'at peace'. It's all pretty complicated, and the way a 'real Fifth Generation war' might be fought (non-kinetically) may not be obvious to most people in the warring nation states while it is underway. One indicator that you 'might be at war and not know it' is 'profound, but strange things' happening with obscure or ambiguous antecedents, precedents, or coherent rationales.
At the end, there are all kinds of questions to entertain -- is what we seeing the pathetic 'flailings' of a incompetent / fatally flawed narcassist-in-chief or Israeli-controlled 'stooge'? (Some on this site would say yes). Is it a well (or poorly) thought-through and well (or poorly) executed 'message' to China (and others) whose end goal is 'the same as before but incrementally better for the US'? Is the end goal a total re-orienting of the global economy decisively in favor of the US? Or even the undermining of the Chinese regime? All very unclear, but potentially all of these questions are on the table.
Whatever the truth is, and were unlikely to know that for quite a while, the US is obviously desperate. They have had a bad run of late, forced to flee Afghanistan. Forced to back down in Ukraine. Now they are trying a massive attack on China's economy while simultaneously ramping up the war machine aiming at Iran. Again this only indicates desperation and a tendency to gamble big without a guarantee of victory. If they succeed in either endeavour they may gain some time. If they lose either they are toast. I'd give their odds of success at <20%.
The answer to that batch of questions is still: "We don't know!" Even after 9 years, I still don't know if Trump is a genius 4D chess master or a narcissistic blowhard out of his depth. I guess we'll find out reasonably soon.
It should be abundantly obvious by now that Trump has no Master Plan and doesn't really consider the second-order effects of his moves, much less how others might react.
The stock and bond markets are the thermometer of the economy, and yes, Apple is the real economy even if it is in China. An exemption for Apple? But Apple is one of hundreds of companies... Apparently we are treating Taiwan differently, which is going to be a problem for China.
Trump's impulse when something is not paying off quickly enough is to attack in a different direction, to sow confusion and keep his opponents destabilized while he figures out from their reactions where the weakness truly lies.
He's been stumped in his Ukraine peace efforts, for a range of good reasons, and started blowing up Yemen and threating Iran. That's not going well, so the world gets tarrifs. That spooks people who were not prepared, so he pulls back. Meanwhile, the fires he's left burning continue to create new conditions he can come back to when desired.
It's as dangerous to label his actions as planned as it is to dismiss them as incompetent. Trump's intuition and energy served him well throughout his business life, and he views his opponents as treasonous corporate wreckers; I'd not be surprised if a crirical objective of all activity is to flush the 5th column out and expose the true positions of so-called allies.
He intended a major shift in investment into bonds. It did not happen and why is the subject of a whole other story. Trump was always going to play an adjustment game with the tariffs themselves to get what he wants geopolitically from various other parties. Don't be too seduced by media hysteria.
Trump just pulled off the biggest stock-market heist . He tanked it with the tariff threat and then boosted it back up with the "delay" . If you knew what was going to happen it was easy money . The Democrats aren't the only ones who are getting rich...
What's dangerous (and likely wrong) about your comment "the main reason" (attributing Trump's action to the stock market) is that there are many potential reasons why he did what he did (e.g. the stock market, the bond market, the interest rate swap market behind the bond market, the currency or derivative markets, the liquidity market behind the derivative markets, etc. or even negotiating strategies and geo-political reasons unrelated to any financial market, etc.). Attributing it to any one factor (without a lot of analysis, fact presentation, and argumentation) is really just pure speculation. There is a virtually unlimited number of opinions, substacks, YouTube channels etc all proclaiming that 'they know why' and 'here's the reason' (and by the way, it is 'so obvious') -- but the one thing you can be relatively sure of is that those 'prophets' are almost certainly 'wrong' or 'incomplete' at best. Best to be cautious and open minded to a variety of perspectives on very complex issues / moments of crises and change.
For what it's worth, if I had to attribute Trumps actions to a financial market reason, the very worst one I can think of is attributing it to the stock (equity) markets. If, on the other hand, what you are meaning to say is that he pulled back because of an increasing sense of 'panic' or 'disorder' or 'behind the scenes breakdown in the system' (and not the stock market per se), then I think you are on firmer ground (in which case it is the precision of your words -- i.e. not the stock market, but 'financial system' more broadly defined -- that is my main objection to what you write).
There's also the issue of hundreds if not thousands of tonnes of physical Gold being flown into the US to fulfill the promissary notes of "Paper Gold", and the oft repeated mention that there's more Paper Gold been sold than physical Gold exists. Also there's a flight by smaller investors to precious metals, in addition Gold, Silver too. Youtube is chock full of alarmist scare stories right now. I'm no financial whizz or economist, but did take a look at the on-line Royal Mint UK Shop, and it's apparent that smaller weight (more affordable) bullion bars and coins are now totally Sold Out, as folk seem busy buying stuff to stick under the proverbial Mattress.
The sad part is that (in the US and the West generally) the retail investors are not moving into gold (not compared to past retail moves into the metal or based on total amount of retail financial assets invested into gold versus stocks, bonds, or real estate). Internationally, there is very large central bank buying of gold -- and large retail gold purchasing going on in China, India, and the Middle East -- but rather little retail investor interest in the West and only limited 'institutional investor' (i.e. retirement funds, endowments, hedge fund) interest in the US / Europe (and what interest there is is almost totally in 'synthetic' gold (paper gold) not the actual physical metal). This is, quite possibly, a 'missed opportunity' on the part of Western retail and institutional investors (but who really knows).
As an aside, no one really knows why the physical inflows of gold have been occurring recently -- it may be do to the fear of tariffs (although that argument is not very strong), it may be due to new accounting changes related to the COMEX trading exchange (making gold a Tier 1 asset recently in the US which has legal and financial implications and requires the physical presence of gold for certain 'financial trades' to occur), or it can be due to the rumored decline of 'gold leasing' by central and money center banks (due to risk, governmental order, and or other rumored factors). No one really knows (and those who may know aren't talking) -- but the physical movement is unprecedented (except during COVID) and likely important.
At 79 years old and with all that has been tried to kill or imprison him I'm surprised he's still alive. I also think he's in a "Last King of Scotland" situation with some of those around him untrustable. Perhaps he'll go full Idi Amin?
>As a last note, Syrsky interestingly admits that the entire Kursk operation was meant to slow down a planned Russian offensive across the entire front:
Which is complete BS.
For months last year there were rumors of an upcoming Russian offensive in Sumy. But after the Kharkov fiasco, if it was ever planned, it appears to have been canceled.
How do we know? Because then the AFU just walked into Kursk and there was nobody there to stop them. Units had to be scrambled from all over Russia and other parts of the frontline.
Which meant that:
1) There was no force assembled for an offensive on Sumy in Kursk
2) There was no serious force in reserve ready to spring into action anywhere else either.
Last summer was also when Putin begged to be allowed to surrender with just the four regions and there were constant rumors of behind-the-scenes "negotiations".
This is also why Putin looked so grim when he finally made a public appearance after the invasion started (which was, of course, multiple days too late, and was not exactly a display of great wartime leadership; in typical Putinist fashion). He realized his dream of Russia being allowed to once again become a resource appendage to the dear partners in Berlin and Brussels, only without American nuclear missiles 450 km from Moscow, was betrayed once again.
But that did not stop him from trying once again with Trump in the last three months.
So why should we think there is a real offensive finally to come? There hasn't been one in three years and Putin has been distinctly disinterested in fighting the war seriously all that time.
The British and French are on a carousel to Kiev planning the occupation of the rest of the country. Has an Iskander visited them there to send a message? No. What does that mean? It means that most likely they will occupy the rest of the country and Moscow won't do anything to stop it.
The Kursk incursion was a complete success, in that it did exactly what it was intended to do, which was to shift the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence.
You are right about it being a success, you are a bit wrong about what it was intended to do.
What you list was the secondary objective, the primary one was to establish the precedent that NATO can invade official Russian territory, slaughter thousands and destroy everything, and the Kremlin will just take it without physically eliminating the threat (which in this case would have been half of Europe) the way it is supposed to do. Not even a token missile strike here and there the way the Iranians did against Israel.
This opens the door for a lot more of the same from many other vectors in the near future.
The Estonians don't pass that law the other day giving themselves the right to sink Russian ships (which they would only ever pass if they intended to also apply in practice) without having seen that absence of reaction in Kursk.
The "defying Trump" comments elicit massive LOLs. My latest report on the negotiations noted no progress on restoration of relations, which is a very big Russian priority and extremely important trust builder. "Normalization of Relations Faltering & Lavrov Answers a Teenager's Probing Question" https://karlof1.substack.com/p/normalization-of-relations-faltering
A weird "ceasefire" it is, one that is only respected by the Russians. I didn't hear the Great Dealmaker in Washington reprimand the Ukrainians about that.
Thank you for another comprehensive roundup of the situation.
That being said, the spring rains are nowhere close to being over :) It was snowing and/or raining over most of Ukraine yesterday. More like mid-May before the fields get fully dry.
Sounds like the Russians are finally getting smart and looking for more ways to utilize underground (and underwater?!) movement. This is the reality of modern maneuver warfare in the age of drones and total ISR. Speaking of which, why don't the Ukrainians ever make any such attempts? There don't seem to be any Ukrainian equivalents of the tunnel attacks.
"In 2024, the Zvezda (gunpowder) and Impuls (detonators) plants were shelled several times, including on December 31, 2024, when 13 ballistic missiles were fired at them," the publication writes.
Wait, what?!????!!!
Does this mean that there where 2 munition plants in Sumy (!!!) happily operating during the whole of 2022 & 2023????
They keep TRYING to find a replacement for BP but nothing really has replaced it for all those small but critical ordnance applications such as ignition material, first fire and expeller charges. Plus, relatively cheap and lasts for centuries with good storage conditions.
Igniters 'ignite' the 'propellent' (i.e. light it on fire (or conflagrate it)) in a fast but controlled burn in the artillery tube that accelerates the artillery shell out of the barrel and on towards its target downrange. Detonators cause the high explosive warhead in the shell to explosively detonate (on or near its target downrange). For those in the field, all of these terms have very specific meanings (i.e. 'ignite' is different than 'conflagrate' which is different than 'denonate' which is different than 'explode'), although in common parlance these terms are used inter-changeably. There are alternatives to black powder (but once you are set up for a specific system / weapon design / supply chain) you are limited in what you can substitute.
>Does this mean that there where 2 munition plants in Sumy (!!!) happily operating during the whole of 2022 & 2023????
Yes, that is exactly what it means.
And it is not even the most egregious such example.
And then I am called a troll for constantly reminding everyone that Putin is, if not truly a traitor in his heart, certainly acting like one when it comes to the Ukrainian issue.
There are no producers of TNT or guncotton in Ukraine, the latter being needed for grenades.
In the entire EU, TNT production is only carried out in Poland...the USA, for example, no longer produces TNT at all and gets its from South Korea.
In Russia, there are more than 40 TNT producers with a capacity of over 800 tons.
Incidentally, the shortage of TNT explains the EU's problems producing its own ammunition...even though Bayer mass-produces the raw material for TNT. As a waste product
Indeed. The phlegmatic Russian way of Warfare when it comes to decapitating strikes and defending against Ukrainian strikes could fill a whole book.
It dawned on Russia that the War will not be over in 2022 and by 2023 they should have eradicated all of the most important munition factories.
But to defend Russia we must understand the massive support from unified ”West” to supply Ukraine. No wonder Russia had to concentrate on taking out AD defense to not waste all of their missiles. And they scored good hits on Western storages as the Chmelnitsky brew-up of Challenger ammo showed. Killing foreign mercenaries seems to have been prioritized over other targets.
There have been 100-200 Gerans flying every day for months now.
And double digit Iskanders in a day quite often.
Plus, how many cruise missiles were wasted hitting low-voltage transformers without ever seriously shutting down the grid?
The ammo was definitely there to take out all the munitions factories, but they were not touched.
Also, remember how back in September Rheinmetal announced the first ammo factory on Ukrainian territory had been launched. Then Medvedev once again threatened it with destruction. And then? Crickets. Nobody has mentioned it again, which means it is likely running without any worry about missile strikes. Why???
This is also why I am quite confident in the prediction that NATO will put tens of thousands of troops everywhere that Russia does not occupy very soon and they will not be touched either.
I hope I am wrong, but past behavior is the best predictor of future actions, and past behavior here is anything but encouraging.
Geran are mostly used to soak up the AD. Gerans will never destroy a Rheinmetall factory. Iskander will but, as you say, why isnt it obliterated? Or is it? We dont know.
Me too. Any NATO troops other than US, Putin will batter flat by missile barrage right away, and he’ll be able to do it with impunity. The French and UK Generals will have explained that to Queer Slimer and Little Napoleon. The French and British armies are not manned, trained or equipped for a war against any serious enemy.
This idea that there is some "Russian way of warfare" by dithering and half-measures is just cope.
Operation Uranus, Bagration, August Storm, the Brusilov Offensive, or, for that matter, the invasion of Czechoslovakia, to name a few, all were carried in quick, determined and decisive fashion.
Maybe the Russians did not want to go all the way? This is a limited war. The Western Ukrainians see the Russians, even the fellow inhabitants of Eastern Ukraine, as second class humans. It might be, that the plants were inbetween civil housing, kindergardens and schools. We saw this a the start of the SMO, when the Ukrainians made a lot of defensive positions in schools and hospitals, because if the Russians shoot back, they hit Russians civilians. Before making any conclusions, we have to wait until there is more information available.
Sorry but this makes no sense. At all. The way to spare lives is to finish the war as quickly as possible. And letting your opponent continue to manufacture munitions in those plants for almost 3 years is hardly the best way to avoid increasing the overall number of deaths...
The Ukrainians have no good gun barrels! I do not see, how this minor production facilities could have substantially altered this war. And it might sound zynical, but the typical Russian soldier is in on a contract, the civilians are there, because it is their home.
Gun barrels? Drone munition are usually mortar or RPG warheads, and these factories have produced munition components for these simpler weapons for 3 years uninterrupted. Same for land mines.
As for the civilians - it is definitively not a good urban zoning practice - not now, not in the USSR times - to build housing close to a hazardous chemical plant. I think we can at least agree to this...
Yes, the Russian did not want go all the way. It is an SMO, not War. Probably because the situation for the civilians. Ukraine regime doesnt care - only the Russian side. Quite a handicap.
It's only me or Trump looks physically sick and tired ?
He's actually been losing weight lately. He looks better than he did in 2020. But that isn't necessarily a good thing - I have found that older people start losing a lot of weight before they pass.
biden 2.0
Bullshit. Don't be a lefty TDS dolt.
New video of Trump looking younger and lighter.
https://x.com/i/status/1905762914935746775
Two more weeks!
How many times do you need to ask that ignorant question?
How dare those pesky Russians!
Woohoo, Simplicius time.
Overall it seems the Russians have upped the pressure even more. Simplicius didn't mention the front west of Pokrovsk. After getting bogged down in January and standing their ground during multiple counter attacks the Russians seem to have the initiative again. Only a few kilometres to the largest lithium reserve on Europe. Earlier in the week they took another lithium mine north of Velyka Novosilka.
Totes!
what astonishes me about this war is the size of the material losses. Only in Kursk Ukraine-NATO has lost more than 900 armed vehicles, which raises the total amount of armed vehicles losses to 20+ thousand. Just think about it. A country like France or Germany are supposed to have no more than 3 thousand IFV each ! This confirms the Ukranian war has been a new collective Lebensraum assault on Russia which by the way is fading everyday. The very globalist sionist FT no longer mentions Ukraine AT ALL. Van der Liar is struggling to deal with Trump's tariff blitzkrieg and still needs to feed the Ukranian blackhole every single day. Of course, the British could try a new spectacular stun to bring Ukraine to the headlines, but it seems unlikely, with Trump visibly moving away from that pain in the ass and focusing on a hotter potato like Iran.
In my opinion the situation for the Kievan Junta is worse than we think. Aid is shrinking, attention is fading, the front is collapsing. Its uncomprehensible the AFU and the Kievan Junta are still standing.
<Its uncomprehensible the AFU and the Kievan Junta are still standing.>
Part of the explanation may be that the present leaders in Kiev, who aren't ethnic Ukrainians for the most part, don't give a damn about the Ukrainian nation and its future. They are willing to tolerate losses in lives, material and infrastructure which normal, caring leaders would not even think of tolerating.
They are trying to destroy Christianity, the longtime Khazarian enemy.
If they want to do that they should start in England. Not chris since 1534 and proud of it. ;O)
Ethnic Ukrainians, for the most part, don't give a damn about Ukraine or itrs future.
Anyway, doesn't matter, as long as it works.
It's incomprehensible that the AFU still fights. They must know that they are dying to save Z and Blackrock investments.
“The head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sees a connection between the wars Ukraine and Israel are fighting.
At a festive banquet held at Kyiv's central synagogue, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, lit the second Hanukkah candle on the menorah alongside Vitali Klitschko, the Chief Rabbi, and the Israeli ambassador.
Before the ceremony, Budanov addressed the banquet participants with a formal speech. Among other remarks, he stated, "The flame of this candle will illuminate our future victory – both ours and that of the State of Israel."https://spzh.eu/en/
It's going to take more than a candle to save these genocidal maniacs.
Now if Putin could figure this out... Actually Israel is the biggest TERRORIST THREAT to the UNITED STATES. Look at 911 and Kennedy new assassination information.
"still needs to feed the Ukranian blackhole every single day"
Immediately brought to mind The Little Shop of Horrors and "Feed me, Seymour."
The only hope for Kiev is those 30'000 battle-hardened, gender diverse EU peacekeepers!
Looks like Trump is going to have to make a mineral deal with Putin soon.
I was thinking the same. perhaps a Novorossiya Reconstruction Fund.
Based in newly-liberated Odessa. And with a special welcome for Fatty Nuland.
Nice work, Simplicius.
really?
Here is a judeo-banderite’s devotional speech for his overlords:
“At a festive banquet held at Kyiv's central synagogue, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, lit the second Hanukkah candle on the menorah alongside Vitali Klitschko, the Chief Rabbi, and the Israeli ambassador.
Before the ceremony, Budanov addressed the banquet participants with a formal speech. Among other remarks, he stated, "The flame of this candle will illuminate our future victory – both ours and that of the State of Israel."
"We all need it," Budanov concluded.”
https://spzh.eu/en/
excellent - thank you for such Anna
Yes, really.
Are you trying to say you disagree? What part do you think wasn't nice work?
read my post regarding Simplicious's questionable logic and his "D.T. voodoo math".
"A story is spreading in Ukrainian channels that the Russian army is using micro-submarines to transfer infantry and ammunition to the bridgehead on the western bank of Oskol." - I doubt Oskol is deep enough for even mini submarines.
Maybe it's the air cavalry landing troops behind enemy lines at night.
No -" ... Magyar birds are hovering over the river day and night every day, but they don't see any signs of moving forces across the river"
Helicopters don't fly in the water
Of course not, but they watch over the water - but seen nothing.
Because they're looking down whereas helicopters are above them.
You completely lost the thread of conversation. It was about how Russians move their troops to the point where they seem to appear from "nowhere" - they can't do it on the surface, hence under the water, but Oskol is shallow.
Micro is pretty small....
Yeah, like in micro-chips, but in micro-submarines? Looks a bit swampy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskil#/media/File:Oskil_near_Kruhliakivka.jpg
Yep, but old technology. Twentieth Century Fox did it in 1966:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ZMor5UFyY
How many people in one, and aren't they're sonar detectible?
Not sonar detectible, maybe with a MRI scanner? They carry a crew of 4 men and a beautiful girl. They are small enough to navigate inside your blood vessels, where the crew can destroy a blood clot in your brain with lasers.
LOL - and go under the name Andromeda?
Her name was Proteus.
Oh my! I so remember watching this as a young girl. Thanks.
Maybe they're going two by two in an upside-down boat, like Jack Sparrow did in Pirates of the Carribean :P
(Yes, I know it's not physically possible)
Impossibles are always the best ideas!
lol, Bryan.
I think it's very do-able.
Here's a video from historian Mark Felton about a German mini-submarine attack on the captured Nijmegen Bridges in 1945.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBfZ8I66Ds8
Of course that was in a much larger and deeper river and it was an attack not a supply mission.
They used the "Biber" midget submarines
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biber_(submarine)
Displacement 5.7 tonnes
Length 8.9 m (29 ft)
Beam 1.6 m (5 ft 3 in)
Height 1.6 m (5 ft 3 in)
Propulsion 32 hp (24 kW) Otto petrol engine, 13 hp (9.7 kW) electric motor,
Speed
6.5 knots (12.0 km/h) surfaced
5.3 knots (9.8 km/h) submerged
They were made in about 6 weeks in 1944. The Russians have had plenty of time and have plenty of incentive to develop some sort of stealth transport for the inland waterways.
I love his videos about WW2!
The talk of using mini submarines is Ukrainian propaganda for western morons. It's really a shame the people reading this sub take it as a possibility.
The Oskol river is only 2. 5 to three meters deep, with a maximum depth of 10 meters in a very few places. Those depths are easily forded by Russian armor using standard Russian underwater snorkel / fording techniques. The practice also is called "deep wading" in the west and a typical Russian tank like a T-72 can handle rivers five meters (over sixteen feet) deep. Newer tanks can go deeper, as can some armored personnel carriers.
Russia is unusual in that each and every Russian tank crew practices underwater fording and has demonstrated their ability to rig up a snorkel and drive down into a river and cross it underwater and then come back up the other side. They have to demonstrate that to graduate from tank school. They don't need bridges for small rivers like the Oskol.
American forces no longer do underwater fording outside of actual war. They think it's too dangerous to practice in peacetime. The Russians don't. Instead, they have good gear (like emergency rebreathers built into inflatable life vests) the crew can use to get to safety if the tank gets stuck mid-river. They then recover the tank and refurb it. Guys who have done it say it's scary the first time but then you get used to it and it's no big deal.
I've talked to some of them. I've also talked to guys in Russian paratroop forces who have parachuted in a tank. Russia has light tanks and other armored vehicles that paratroop forces use. Unlike the US, where they drop such tanks separately from their crews and the crew then has to find the tank, get to it, and get it rigged up, Russian paratroopers fly into combat sitting inside their tanks.
They drop inside the tank so when it lands they're ready to roll right into combat. The guys that do that say it is definitely tense the first time but after you do it once they much prefer dropping in the tank ready to go. For starters, you don't have to worry about getting beat up by dropping into a tree as the tank around you protects you when you're landing.
Thanks. Very interesting information.
That was my very point - Oskol river is very shallow.
Russian paratroopers wearing wingsuits and invisibility cloaks?
I’m only half joking. Wingsuits can carry a paratrooper nearly 20 miles from a drop at 30,000 feet. More conventional High Altitude Low Opening methods might also work if chutes are opened at a thousand feet or so (which is not for the feint of heart). I may have missed hearing about the use of paratroops in the SMO, but the absence of their mention seems conspicuous. I’m fairly sure the Russians have inserted special operators this way, if for no other reason than to test methods.
Also, what if the Russian cyber nerds have a method of spoofing the video feeds of those Magyar drones?
Or, speaking of tunnels, do we know if Elon sold any Boring Machines to the Russians?
Obviously, we aren’t going to hear about these kinds of special methods and operations until the military history books are written sometime in the far future.
Angelina,
Perhaps they are using something invented by the drug cartels for importing their "product" . It appears that a few Columbians are fighting for Ukraine...
@Mark, wasn't it the Ukrainian press speculating that Russia transfers its troops in these "mini-submarines" through the Oskol River? How do Columbians fighting for Ukraine fit into the above scenario? If Russia uses these mini Flying Dutchmen, most likely, they'd be of Russian design/make:-)
The Russians are not above using a good idea , and would have researched what tech was working . The cartels have had to innovate their equipment to avoid detection and that is what the Russians would need . I was speculating that some of the Columbians who were captured may have had knowledge of these vessels . Just sayin...
Could be. Good ideas are floating around, no pun intended:-)
I thinks the Russkies stole Star Trek transporters/teleporters from Studio City, Cali.
Most likely:-)
I guess this is what happens to those who are the ones really dragging their feet on a peace deal with Russia.
Any truth in this: https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1909949965968748546?s=61
?
Zero. Russians crushed the invasion attempt in Belgorod Oblast altogether and secured the border.
The Ukrainians got stuck on the Russians first line of defence and are now falling back.
>He claims Ukraine’s destruction of the Russian Toropets arsenal in September 2024 caused Russia to halve its shell usage
Which once again brings us to the question of how it is possible for a couple "drones" carrying 10-20 kg of explosive to destroy dozens of hardened ammunition storage hangars, separated 40-50 meters from each other?
Nobody has provided a satisfactory explanation to this day...
Look at the strike on the fiber optic plant in Saransk. Those were heavy drones and the one carrying a FAB-250 seems to have destroyed the engineering room, but the one that hit the tall building just burned the wall, didn't really penetrate much.
But the hardened shelters designed to withstand a low-yield tactical nuke strike all exploded at once?
How?
Well a Ukrainian general can claim anything, it's not like he is burdened by truth. If Russian artillery strikes were reduced by half it could be for many different variables, stockpiling for future use; shortage of Ukrainian targets; increased use of drones; or basically a change of strategy. A Ukrainian drone dropping a Russian 250kg fab bomb is ridiculous. Call the bomb something else as to gain glide capability the drone would need to acquire altitude and speed to give glide capability. So the drone dropped a gravity bomb or maybe you can claim a JDAM or JASSM Ukraine found a way to fire a western cruise missiles from a drone that would give a more credible argument.
>A Ukrainian drone dropping a Russian 250kg fab bomb is ridiculous
It's on video
Well a drone dropped something. If it's a Ukrainian video it's probably heavily edited; done with a green screen with the help of someone with much experience in special effect. Please link the video.
Maybe they are reserving ammo. Or running out of targets? But sounds fishy to me too.
Could be the right answer. Reserving ammo for the ”promised and dreaded” Summer-offensive…
As this information is from the Ukrainians, it can be true, but our experience tells us, there is a high chance that this is propaganda. Therefore I do not make any further conclusions.
Simplicius skipped that part of explanation…
Syrsky can of course tell us fairy-tales but why be so specific?
If ammunition is nearly halved?! from 40 000/day to 27 000 we are talking of 1,8 million of shells lost in Toropets… Ukraine claim they destroyed 30 000 tonnes of explosives. And they have claimed it was Grad-ammunition and S300,400 and Iskanders, not artillery. The explosions were clearly not artillery shells.
Still we dont have any good explanations of how that catastrophe was achieved. It wasnt Nukes, GM, but they must have used a lot of Palianytsias (their own cruiser/drone) and extensive help from West.
For the record. The Shelters did not explode at once.
There were multiple explosions, that is correct.
One of them was multikiloton in size, and another two were very large too.
Then there was further cooking off.
GM
you are on to something, here. But keep your cool and do not let your reasonable worries turn into paranoia that can be used, and is used in psychological warfare.
US did prop up Ukrainian army in all possible ways,
creating it, supplying it with weapons, organising command structure, and taking command structure into its own hands. It was a surprise in 2022.
Russia answered by mobilising army, economy, society and starting to fight a real war, US continued to add more and more potent weapons, HIMARS, ATACAMS, F 16,
but it was not enough, Ukraine kept losing on the battlefield
US had to use US weapons against Russian territory (Toropets?)
It was a red line, and Russia communicated it to US, (stop it or it is a real war...i.e. nuclear) US stopped.
US continues supplying weapons, that were decided by Biden, but had not made any new decisions,
War is a clash of wills, Putin demands a real peace agreement, not just a ceasefire, that can be turned into South Korean stalemate, or ignited again in future,
(no NATO, neutral status, withdrawing from 4 oblast, peace agreement)
that is from the point of Ukrainian leadership, US, and NATO a clear defeat, accepting that Ukraine will never again be used as a proxy against Russia,
There is nothing short of US or NATO entering the war openly that can change the trajectory of the lost war. As long as the war is raging, US, NATO, West cannot keep up, and Ukraine will keep losing.
US and NATO are not willing to openly enter the war. And not willing to accept defeat, either.
The weakest link now, is Ukrainian side, in the long run is the number of soldiers, in the short run, until summer, or autumn in its psychological resilience. That is why all Europeans are promising support, to keep Ukraine running the war.
On the Russian side potential weak spot is the price of oil and gas, support of the BRICS, i.e. India.
War is the answer, no one else can give us the answer .
Thank you
Why does India's support matter, Korkyrian?
Oil.
Excellent summary.
One addenda; the West favour the war continuing, and they might prefer it if to 'win' Russia is forced to take the western and pro-Western oblasts. And to face the inevitable 'Left behind' terror. Russia's ace card is that by then Odessa will be liberated to Russia forever, unless the West comes to its senses and drops this 'World Domination' idiocy 'game', and comes to a sensible deal that involves mutual security for all.
If Trump is dumb enough to attack Iran and oil goes to $400 Putin can buy Americans even for his war. Be funny to see former blackwaters who were paid 12-25K mo fighting in Russia.
My thoughts on Toropets was that it was hit at the perfect time as one or more storage bunkers could have had its doors open to receive more munitions. To me it was a stunning display of the ISR overmatch that NATO brings to the table, hitting within maybe a 15min window. Another example is baiting and destroying of RU AWAC assets to allow NATO to continue to use fighter jets close to the front line in shoot-n-scoot missile attacks.
I am starting to believe something else is going on the longer this goes on as these heavy drones are now hitting 2000+ kms inside Russia, showing that NATO ISR can map a plane through 2000km of Russian air defence. I would say its only a matter of time before they hit something important, but then again Russia loves to 'absorb' the punches don't they.
As for the nuke suggested use, I can't discount 100% as I am sure there are Fusion or Neutron bombs afoot that would give off little radiation if they were small and the western press would not report as the CIA would never give them the story. Or maybe a weapon not seen before (I mean is all that DARPA $ wasted?).
I do long for the days when I thought I knew what was going on in the world. With all the propaganda, AI fakery and people lying to your face or telling narcissists they live in a matrix, its tough to be 100% about anything anymore.
How dare Pootin broke the ceasefire ordered by Trump!
Popcorn has been purchased. Now I sit back and wait for the impending offensive. Would be nice if they used a couple of Oreshniks to start it all off with a bang.
Other than Ramstein AFB, Mi6 HQ, NATO HQ, and Diego Garcia it is hard to think of any targets worthy of an Oreshnik. But right now the combined west is self destructing, so it is better to pretend to care what DJT thinks.
You're going to need a lot more than popcorn, Haywood, because you'll be sitting much longer than you think. lol.
Doubt it. Unlike the Ukes, the Russians actually know how to mount an offensive and be successful at it.
Knowing and doing are two separate things.
This conflict should have been over by now with a Russian general sitting on Zelensky's desk smoking a big cigar and sipping cognac.
You must have been in hibernation for the past three years. Not one Russian has ever said that they would crush Ukraine in a short period of time. That was all West propaganda. "3 days to take Kyiv." Russian forces were small at the beginning. Likely in the 150,000 range. Ukraine conversely had over 500,000 in the AFU. After the Ukes wouldn't sign the Istanbul peace treaty, Russia wisely pulled back, set up defenses, mobilized and recruited to now where they have a significant advantage. In the meantime Ukraine has suffered a minimum of 1.2 million KIA, at least that many wounded and throw their best men and resources into an idiotic attack in Kursk. I won't need anything more than popcorn because once the offensive gets rolling, the AFU will fold like a cheap tent.
You tell me nothing new, General Jablome.
Then tell me something Field Marshall Denis. How exactly a Russian General should have been sitting at Zelenskyy's desk smoking a big cigar and sipping cognac a long time ago. I await your "brilliant" military strategy.
As they say in Texas and as I expected, you are all hat and no cattle. I suppose Field Marshall Denis struggles to respond coherently when he is stuck in his mom's basement playing Call of Duty.
It would be a waste of time since you lack the intellectual capacity to understand it anyway.
The Russian warfare is evolving into a Mad Max style troglodyte war. Look at those tanks !
Budanov has openly showed his subservience to Jews. Have you seen what jews have been doing in Palestine? This is a real troglodyte war by people with a dominating reptilian brain. Both zionists and banderites have shown a total disregard for human life. How would you deal with this subhuman refuse?
Russians tried to prevent the madness. In comparison, jews and their spiritual twins the neo-Nazis revel in sadism.
Ukraine has been owned by jews for more than 30 years. At some time it even boasted jewish president and jewish prime minister, similar to the fascist jewish state. Neither of the two psychopathic cults - zionists and Ukrainian neonazis -will stop running their supremacist mass slaughters until they are physically destroyed. And don’t forget that the Nazification of Ukraine has been accomplished under the Russophobic and Slavophobic Jews in Ukraine and US State Dept.
The way this is worded it almost sounds like Russia knew they would not succeed but attacked anyway so that they could use it as the cause to which to rebuild the Russian armed forces. This usually means more government control and some elites get stinking rich.
I am told Russia has spies and informants throughout Ukraine so how did they get it so wrong as to attack 500K with 150K and think they would win?
At that point, before RU withdrew from Kiev they should have tossed down a few tactical nukes. It could have saved a million Ukrainian lives. I'll also add that this was the analogy used by USA to flatten two Japanese cities with nukes and the 'to save lives' reasoning is still used to this day as a positive.
There will be no grand offensives anymore in this drone infested SMO.
You must have been hibernating for the last three years as well. The Russian plan was to get the Ukrainians to a negotiating table and get a peace deal signed. They succeeded within the first month of the SMO. Ukraine representatives initialed the deal. In early April Boris Johnson went to Kyiv and talked The coke snorting clown Zelenskyy out of it. Russia even out of good faith pulled troops away from the outskirts of Kyiv. The goal all along has had three main components. Demilitarization, denazification and neutrality (no NATO). All of that was agreed to in the Istanbul Agreement. When Ukraine walked away from it, Russia reassessed, withdrew to easily defended lines and built up their military. Nothing unusual about that. The mistake made by Putin and the Russians was thinking Ukraine and the West would want peace. They won’t be fooled again.
While your hypothesis of the Russians lopping a few tactical nukes onto Ukraine might work, I would think a couple of monster mega ton yields on Washington DC would've also come in handy. It would save millions of lives in the long run...
There was nothing positive about burning alive hundreds of thousands of civilians of all ages. Though it was “positive” for certain Jacob Beser who participated in the bombings of both Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He then boasted about his exploits while giving talks at various jewish centers in the US. He was a jew by the way.
Surely while stroking a fluffy white cat
"Should have been over by now,"
Most people with zero ability for strategic analysis believe this. It's highly likely that this will continue for several more years since the actual goal is to demilitarize the EU and all of NATO.
The problem with Ukrainian reportage is that it is all propaganda. Ukraine has an interest in talking up actual-feared Russian advances to suck in more western dosh and weaponry and ideally troops.
Tanking equities, which markets had sucked in ridiculous digital wealth, was the west's way of trying to drive funds pulled out (real money for a moment) into bonds, the usual safe haven, buying western debt and so bringing down interest rates which would have bailed out the UK in particular desperate for its own domestic savings to leave well paying cash savings for the property market- the engine of its economy. But US debt is in a bad place too and about to go to a worse place if China dumps it. European debt is dependent on US life support.
The trick did not work because those with an interest in equities not to mention international trade, had the power to prevent the shift and used it, so the strategy was pulled. Meh, just joking, Trump said as he slashed the tariffs with the same gay abandon he had hiked them.
The western hegemon- AKA the US- has far more to worry about than Ukraine which could all go Russian for all that matters anymore. Trump would do a mineral trade deal with Putin (in return for sanctions lifting across the board and a promise not to stoke further unrest in China's sphere of interest). It is impossible to believe that the Trump camp really thinks any independent Ukraine to emerge from it's ashes would honour any deal to hand over Ukraine's sole source of international value. It will keep trying to leverage it for whatever, over and over again, while its own mafiosi always has first dibs.The current gangster regime is not in a position to agree anything that could possibly be honoured- economically or militarily, which is why it is tagging onto the deal promises from the west that it will not be able to so easily dump. Western troops and more weapons etc will already have gone in and everything will have changed.
The US , meanwhile, is looking for a way to steal a march on this and somehow install a puppet regime that really will do its bidding and that Russia will swallow even as a whole new decade's worth of plans are rolled out for a new attack on Russia down the line. Russia knows it has to take all Ukraine if not militarily then through turning its government and hence its people, driving out the west entirely. This would be easy if only Trump would turn off the spigot paying Ukrainian pensions etc.
In this uneasy stand off one sudden major black swan event can change everything. All it is going to take is for Ukraine to overstep the mark, with the west pulling out of Ukraine on the back of that, consequent to Russia's agreement not to inflict the retaliation it could. Everyone is waiting for this Ukrainian mistake now.
The main reason Trump held back on most of his tariffs is related to the precipitous decline of all the major stock markets. Markets have recovered somewhat since Trump's 90-day delay but there is so much uncertainty in the air markets are expected to be highly volatile. That's why gold is at $3,215 US per oz.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-04-09/worst-most-consequential-self-inflicted-wound-us-economic-policy-second
You may be right ... but consider the alternative to what you wrote. Assume for the minute that he 'want's to break down the 'Clown World' economy (i.e. the over-financialized, big-money-dominated economy that dominates the US and the rest of the "West" and that "dominates' the Global South and emerging world. Big assumption I know but go with it for a minute). How would you go about doing that if that were your goal? Would very small incremental steps get you there? (Answer: Likely not -- those steps would be opposed before sufficient change could be enacted). However, is the converse true? (i.e. Would you need to change everything overnight in one giant leap? Answer: probably not because although you want the system to change -- and change fundamentally -- you can't have a total meltdown either). Therefore, what you might see happen is a series of 'bold, unprecedented moves' that take the 'old system' right to the brink of breakdown -- and then back off a tad to prevent total collapse -- followed by additional 'bold, unprecedented moves' later (along the same avenue of approach -- or adjacent ones -- to nudge the system toward the direction you want it to go). The point is to create enough instability to allow for change -- but not too much to cause collapse. This is what you might be seeing going on right now. No guarantees of course -- but you could squint and perhaps make-out that this kind of 'move -- instability -- temporary pause -- more instability etc' is what might be going on.
By all means, believe what you want to believe -- I am not trying to get you to buy-into any particular narrative. You pointed out something and in effect said 'see this claim about Trump can't be true' -- and I am merely pointing out that the 'evidence' you cited isn't sufficient to support your claim (or disprove the counter to that claim). Your claim that 'he's a fraud' may be true -- but the scientific method is not about making a claim and defending it, instead the actual scientific method is to make a claim and then try to debunk your own claim (by finding plausible evidence, logic, and argument to disprove or shed doubt on your own statement). You make a claim "he's fake and can't be trying to undermine the system' -- I am merely showing you a (at least somewhat credible) argument that he may, in fact, be doing exactly the opposite of your claim. Furthermore, showing that a credible argument opposite to your claim doesn't prove the counter-argument either --- it just shows that your original statement isn't definitively 'right'.
At the end of the day, people are free to hold any opinion they want (e.g. 'I claim all apples taste exactly like onions') -- but people making such statements are not really making a credible, defensible claims on the nature of reality.
Ensign. Do you think he wants to reform it, or just make it work even more effectively for those at the top?
I thought it was a last ditch effort to damage the Chinese, and by extension, the BRICS+
They are sending another "message" to the world.
I think that is a very plausible theory of what is going on: Trump is 'throwing down' against the Chinese and BRICS (either to send a message or to maintain or re-assert US dominance economically, politically, diplomatically, and militarily.
If you want to take that line of reasoning even further, there are even more 'rabbit holes' you can go down. For example, there is (allegedly) 'non-public' data available to show that China has in fact been active in covert, 'non-kinetic' warfare against the US (e.g. perhaps in the form of overt election interference or perhaps official blackmail/corruption at very high levels of government, serious industrial espionage/sabotage etc). There are all kinds of 'theories' out there. I personally don't believe any of them -- nor, however, do I discount them entirely -- it is up to you how much you want to dig and how much you want to dismiss as 'unsupportable' or 'unlikely'. The point I am trying to make is that it may not be clear, in an era of Fifth Generation (Informational) Warfare, when you are 'in a war' between nation states --- the absence of 'kinetic' explosions does not necessarily mean you are 'at peace'. It's all pretty complicated, and the way a 'real Fifth Generation war' might be fought (non-kinetically) may not be obvious to most people in the warring nation states while it is underway. One indicator that you 'might be at war and not know it' is 'profound, but strange things' happening with obscure or ambiguous antecedents, precedents, or coherent rationales.
At the end, there are all kinds of questions to entertain -- is what we seeing the pathetic 'flailings' of a incompetent / fatally flawed narcassist-in-chief or Israeli-controlled 'stooge'? (Some on this site would say yes). Is it a well (or poorly) thought-through and well (or poorly) executed 'message' to China (and others) whose end goal is 'the same as before but incrementally better for the US'? Is the end goal a total re-orienting of the global economy decisively in favor of the US? Or even the undermining of the Chinese regime? All very unclear, but potentially all of these questions are on the table.
Whatever the truth is, and were unlikely to know that for quite a while, the US is obviously desperate. They have had a bad run of late, forced to flee Afghanistan. Forced to back down in Ukraine. Now they are trying a massive attack on China's economy while simultaneously ramping up the war machine aiming at Iran. Again this only indicates desperation and a tendency to gamble big without a guarantee of victory. If they succeed in either endeavour they may gain some time. If they lose either they are toast. I'd give their odds of success at <20%.
Thanks for your many good comments today, Martin. Wide-ranging, intellectual, critical thinking much appreciated.
The Grayzone has a recording of aipac bosses mocking US government. Very educational. Their influence is not even covert.
The answer to that batch of questions is still: "We don't know!" Even after 9 years, I still don't know if Trump is a genius 4D chess master or a narcissistic blowhard out of his depth. I guess we'll find out reasonably soon.
zion don is the head clown and the front man for the jew grifters.
It should be abundantly obvious by now that Trump has no Master Plan and doesn't really consider the second-order effects of his moves, much less how others might react.
The stock and bond markets are the thermometer of the economy, and yes, Apple is the real economy even if it is in China. An exemption for Apple? But Apple is one of hundreds of companies... Apparently we are treating Taiwan differently, which is going to be a problem for China.
Trump's impulse when something is not paying off quickly enough is to attack in a different direction, to sow confusion and keep his opponents destabilized while he figures out from their reactions where the weakness truly lies.
He's been stumped in his Ukraine peace efforts, for a range of good reasons, and started blowing up Yemen and threating Iran. That's not going well, so the world gets tarrifs. That spooks people who were not prepared, so he pulls back. Meanwhile, the fires he's left burning continue to create new conditions he can come back to when desired.
It's as dangerous to label his actions as planned as it is to dismiss them as incompetent. Trump's intuition and energy served him well throughout his business life, and he views his opponents as treasonous corporate wreckers; I'd not be surprised if a crirical objective of all activity is to flush the 5th column out and expose the true positions of so-called allies.
He intended a major shift in investment into bonds. It did not happen and why is the subject of a whole other story. Trump was always going to play an adjustment game with the tariffs themselves to get what he wants geopolitically from various other parties. Don't be too seduced by media hysteria.
Seduced by media hysteria?
You missed my entire point, your omniscience. lol
Trump just pulled off the biggest stock-market heist . He tanked it with the tariff threat and then boosted it back up with the "delay" . If you knew what was going to happen it was easy money . The Democrats aren't the only ones who are getting rich...
I agree that he generated the much awaited crash on which no one hitherto wanted to gamble, and a vast profit -take took place!
What's dangerous (and likely wrong) about your comment "the main reason" (attributing Trump's action to the stock market) is that there are many potential reasons why he did what he did (e.g. the stock market, the bond market, the interest rate swap market behind the bond market, the currency or derivative markets, the liquidity market behind the derivative markets, etc. or even negotiating strategies and geo-political reasons unrelated to any financial market, etc.). Attributing it to any one factor (without a lot of analysis, fact presentation, and argumentation) is really just pure speculation. There is a virtually unlimited number of opinions, substacks, YouTube channels etc all proclaiming that 'they know why' and 'here's the reason' (and by the way, it is 'so obvious') -- but the one thing you can be relatively sure of is that those 'prophets' are almost certainly 'wrong' or 'incomplete' at best. Best to be cautious and open minded to a variety of perspectives on very complex issues / moments of crises and change.
For what it's worth, if I had to attribute Trumps actions to a financial market reason, the very worst one I can think of is attributing it to the stock (equity) markets. If, on the other hand, what you are meaning to say is that he pulled back because of an increasing sense of 'panic' or 'disorder' or 'behind the scenes breakdown in the system' (and not the stock market per se), then I think you are on firmer ground (in which case it is the precision of your words -- i.e. not the stock market, but 'financial system' more broadly defined -- that is my main objection to what you write).
There's also the issue of hundreds if not thousands of tonnes of physical Gold being flown into the US to fulfill the promissary notes of "Paper Gold", and the oft repeated mention that there's more Paper Gold been sold than physical Gold exists. Also there's a flight by smaller investors to precious metals, in addition Gold, Silver too. Youtube is chock full of alarmist scare stories right now. I'm no financial whizz or economist, but did take a look at the on-line Royal Mint UK Shop, and it's apparent that smaller weight (more affordable) bullion bars and coins are now totally Sold Out, as folk seem busy buying stuff to stick under the proverbial Mattress.
James Rickards reckons x2 or x3 gold by the end of 2025 !
The sad part is that (in the US and the West generally) the retail investors are not moving into gold (not compared to past retail moves into the metal or based on total amount of retail financial assets invested into gold versus stocks, bonds, or real estate). Internationally, there is very large central bank buying of gold -- and large retail gold purchasing going on in China, India, and the Middle East -- but rather little retail investor interest in the West and only limited 'institutional investor' (i.e. retirement funds, endowments, hedge fund) interest in the US / Europe (and what interest there is is almost totally in 'synthetic' gold (paper gold) not the actual physical metal). This is, quite possibly, a 'missed opportunity' on the part of Western retail and institutional investors (but who really knows).
As an aside, no one really knows why the physical inflows of gold have been occurring recently -- it may be do to the fear of tariffs (although that argument is not very strong), it may be due to new accounting changes related to the COMEX trading exchange (making gold a Tier 1 asset recently in the US which has legal and financial implications and requires the physical presence of gold for certain 'financial trades' to occur), or it can be due to the rumored decline of 'gold leasing' by central and money center banks (due to risk, governmental order, and or other rumored factors). No one really knows (and those who may know aren't talking) -- but the physical movement is unprecedented (except during COVID) and likely important.
James Rickards reckons x2 or x3 gold by the end of 2025 !
Yep. Journalists and economists lie. Gold ALWAYS speaks the truth.
Very informative. It's only me or Trump looks physically sick and tired ? Vance is the real thing for the US to change course.
At 79 years old and with all that has been tried to kill or imprison him I'm surprised he's still alive. I also think he's in a "Last King of Scotland" situation with some of those around him untrustable. Perhaps he'll go full Idi Amin?
>As a last note, Syrsky interestingly admits that the entire Kursk operation was meant to slow down a planned Russian offensive across the entire front:
Which is complete BS.
For months last year there were rumors of an upcoming Russian offensive in Sumy. But after the Kharkov fiasco, if it was ever planned, it appears to have been canceled.
How do we know? Because then the AFU just walked into Kursk and there was nobody there to stop them. Units had to be scrambled from all over Russia and other parts of the frontline.
Which meant that:
1) There was no force assembled for an offensive on Sumy in Kursk
2) There was no serious force in reserve ready to spring into action anywhere else either.
Last summer was also when Putin begged to be allowed to surrender with just the four regions and there were constant rumors of behind-the-scenes "negotiations".
This is also why Putin looked so grim when he finally made a public appearance after the invasion started (which was, of course, multiple days too late, and was not exactly a display of great wartime leadership; in typical Putinist fashion). He realized his dream of Russia being allowed to once again become a resource appendage to the dear partners in Berlin and Brussels, only without American nuclear missiles 450 km from Moscow, was betrayed once again.
But that did not stop him from trying once again with Trump in the last three months.
So why should we think there is a real offensive finally to come? There hasn't been one in three years and Putin has been distinctly disinterested in fighting the war seriously all that time.
The British and French are on a carousel to Kiev planning the occupation of the rest of the country. Has an Iskander visited them there to send a message? No. What does that mean? It means that most likely they will occupy the rest of the country and Moscow won't do anything to stop it.
"There was no serious force in reserve ready to spring into action anywhere else either."
Funny but I thought the Ukrainians were stopped at Korenovo after a week or so. Perhaps we follow different sources? What is yours?
Yes, they were stopped. But stopped by who?
And why were they allowed to get to Korenevo in the first place?
How many thousands of civilians were slaughtered because of that?
Victim shaming anyone?
I was surprised Simplicius served that Syrsky lie without debunking it. Instead we read that multiple ”offensives” are going on…LOL.
👎
The Kursk incursion was a complete success, in that it did exactly what it was intended to do, which was to shift the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence.
You are right about it being a success, you are a bit wrong about what it was intended to do.
What you list was the secondary objective, the primary one was to establish the precedent that NATO can invade official Russian territory, slaughter thousands and destroy everything, and the Kremlin will just take it without physically eliminating the threat (which in this case would have been half of Europe) the way it is supposed to do. Not even a token missile strike here and there the way the Iranians did against Israel.
This opens the door for a lot more of the same from many other vectors in the near future.
The Estonians don't pass that law the other day giving themselves the right to sink Russian ships (which they would only ever pass if they intended to also apply in practice) without having seen that absence of reaction in Kursk.
Estonia doesn't need a law to do that, jsut as NATO needs no precedent. They will do what they want to do, as law is meaningless.
Enforcement is the only thing that matters.
The "defying Trump" comments elicit massive LOLs. My latest report on the negotiations noted no progress on restoration of relations, which is a very big Russian priority and extremely important trust builder. "Normalization of Relations Faltering & Lavrov Answers a Teenager's Probing Question" https://karlof1.substack.com/p/normalization-of-relations-faltering
Nice work, Karl.
It's only me or Trump looks physically sick and tired ?
>It's only me or Trump looks physically sick and tired ?<
Or like an old, embittered man?
It's you. He's lost 30 pounds and is in great shape. Watch him walk up to the press center. Sharp. Don't let your TDS cloud your facts.
New video of Trump looking younger and lighter:
https://x.com/i/status/1905762914935746775
NCSWIC, or something!
The "ceasefire" ends in less than 2 weeks. After that, Ukraine can probably kiss the rest of their energy infrastructure goodbye.
I'd say the Russian will keep their powder dry hedging against a US attack on Iran.
Russia and China will supply Iran but Russia's primary concern is the nazis on it's border.
A weird "ceasefire" it is, one that is only respected by the Russians. I didn't hear the Great Dealmaker in Washington reprimand the Ukrainians about that.
That's why I think Russia is going to hit hard after the "ceasefire" ends.
Thank you for another comprehensive roundup of the situation.
That being said, the spring rains are nowhere close to being over :) It was snowing and/or raining over most of Ukraine yesterday. More like mid-May before the fields get fully dry.
Sounds like the Russians are finally getting smart and looking for more ways to utilize underground (and underwater?!) movement. This is the reality of modern maneuver warfare in the age of drones and total ISR. Speaking of which, why don't the Ukrainians ever make any such attempts? There don't seem to be any Ukrainian equivalents of the tunnel attacks.
"In 2024, the Zvezda (gunpowder) and Impuls (detonators) plants were shelled several times, including on December 31, 2024, when 13 ballistic missiles were fired at them," the publication writes.
Wait, what?!????!!!
Does this mean that there where 2 munition plants in Sumy (!!!) happily operating during the whole of 2022 & 2023????
It's because gunpowder is only used in fireworks nowadays.
That plant made a lot more than black powder. Also, black powder is still used in igniter charges for nearly all larger artillery shells.
Thank you Billy Masterson, good to learn something new. Some things don't change, good reliable BP.
@Remsomm
They keep TRYING to find a replacement for BP but nothing really has replaced it for all those small but critical ordnance applications such as ignition material, first fire and expeller charges. Plus, relatively cheap and lasts for centuries with good storage conditions.
And detonators are used in what?
Igniters 'ignite' the 'propellent' (i.e. light it on fire (or conflagrate it)) in a fast but controlled burn in the artillery tube that accelerates the artillery shell out of the barrel and on towards its target downrange. Detonators cause the high explosive warhead in the shell to explosively detonate (on or near its target downrange). For those in the field, all of these terms have very specific meanings (i.e. 'ignite' is different than 'conflagrate' which is different than 'denonate' which is different than 'explode'), although in common parlance these terms are used inter-changeably. There are alternatives to black powder (but once you are set up for a specific system / weapon design / supply chain) you are limited in what you can substitute.
Come back Guy Fawkes, all is forgiven. ;O)
>Does this mean that there where 2 munition plants in Sumy (!!!) happily operating during the whole of 2022 & 2023????
Yes, that is exactly what it means.
And it is not even the most egregious such example.
And then I am called a troll for constantly reminding everyone that Putin is, if not truly a traitor in his heart, certainly acting like one when it comes to the Ukrainian issue.
There are no producers of TNT or guncotton in Ukraine, the latter being needed for grenades.
In the entire EU, TNT production is only carried out in Poland...the USA, for example, no longer produces TNT at all and gets its from South Korea.
In Russia, there are more than 40 TNT producers with a capacity of over 800 tons.
Incidentally, the shortage of TNT explains the EU's problems producing its own ammunition...even though Bayer mass-produces the raw material for TNT. As a waste product
Indeed. The phlegmatic Russian way of Warfare when it comes to decapitating strikes and defending against Ukrainian strikes could fill a whole book.
It dawned on Russia that the War will not be over in 2022 and by 2023 they should have eradicated all of the most important munition factories.
But to defend Russia we must understand the massive support from unified ”West” to supply Ukraine. No wonder Russia had to concentrate on taking out AD defense to not waste all of their missiles. And they scored good hits on Western storages as the Chmelnitsky brew-up of Challenger ammo showed. Killing foreign mercenaries seems to have been prioritized over other targets.
Please.
There have been 100-200 Gerans flying every day for months now.
And double digit Iskanders in a day quite often.
Plus, how many cruise missiles were wasted hitting low-voltage transformers without ever seriously shutting down the grid?
The ammo was definitely there to take out all the munitions factories, but they were not touched.
Also, remember how back in September Rheinmetal announced the first ammo factory on Ukrainian territory had been launched. Then Medvedev once again threatened it with destruction. And then? Crickets. Nobody has mentioned it again, which means it is likely running without any worry about missile strikes. Why???
This is also why I am quite confident in the prediction that NATO will put tens of thousands of troops everywhere that Russia does not occupy very soon and they will not be touched either.
I hope I am wrong, but past behavior is the best predictor of future actions, and past behavior here is anything but encouraging.
Geran are mostly used to soak up the AD. Gerans will never destroy a Rheinmetall factory. Iskander will but, as you say, why isnt it obliterated? Or is it? We dont know.
Seriously doubt the West will put tens of thousands of troops in Ukraine.
Me too. Any NATO troops other than US, Putin will batter flat by missile barrage right away, and he’ll be able to do it with impunity. The French and UK Generals will have explained that to Queer Slimer and Little Napoleon. The French and British armies are not manned, trained or equipped for a war against any serious enemy.
This idea that there is some "Russian way of warfare" by dithering and half-measures is just cope.
Operation Uranus, Bagration, August Storm, the Brusilov Offensive, or, for that matter, the invasion of Czechoslovakia, to name a few, all were carried in quick, determined and decisive fashion.
Exactly.
I wouldn't be surprised that at some point in the future we learn that those factories were owned by some Kremlin-friendly oligarch...
You need to compare what was attacked, with what wasn't, for your complaint to have significance.
Maybe the Russians did not want to go all the way? This is a limited war. The Western Ukrainians see the Russians, even the fellow inhabitants of Eastern Ukraine, as second class humans. It might be, that the plants were inbetween civil housing, kindergardens and schools. We saw this a the start of the SMO, when the Ukrainians made a lot of defensive positions in schools and hospitals, because if the Russians shoot back, they hit Russians civilians. Before making any conclusions, we have to wait until there is more information available.
Sorry but this makes no sense. At all. The way to spare lives is to finish the war as quickly as possible. And letting your opponent continue to manufacture munitions in those plants for almost 3 years is hardly the best way to avoid increasing the overall number of deaths...
The Ukrainians have no good gun barrels! I do not see, how this minor production facilities could have substantially altered this war. And it might sound zynical, but the typical Russian soldier is in on a contract, the civilians are there, because it is their home.
Gun barrels? Drone munition are usually mortar or RPG warheads, and these factories have produced munition components for these simpler weapons for 3 years uninterrupted. Same for land mines.
As for the civilians - it is definitively not a good urban zoning practice - not now, not in the USSR times - to build housing close to a hazardous chemical plant. I think we can at least agree to this...
In the C20th the Germans practiced schrecklichkeit, it didn't work.
Yes, the Russian did not want go all the way. It is an SMO, not War. Probably because the situation for the civilians. Ukraine regime doesnt care - only the Russian side. Quite a handicap.
Sounds like cope. Do you thinkt he Nazis had any qualms about civil housing, schools and the like?
Would it have mattered?