Mobilization Mania Overtakes Ukraine
The topic of the week is Ukrainian mobilization: it’s virtually all that’s talked about, both within Ukrainian society and without.
Here’s a quick overview of just the signaling from the core of the Trump administration:
‼️🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump calls on Zelensky to lower the draft age in Ukraine to 18 , — FT
▪️The US President-elect intends to push Ukraine to lower the draft age in order to stabilize the front line in the country before direct negotiations with Russia.
▪️ "We will ask Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 in order to attract hundreds of thousands of new troops," Trump's future national security adviser Waltz also said today.
➖ "Now they are conscripting from 26 years old (actually from 25), not from 18. It seems to me that many do not understand that they can attract hundreds of thousands of new military personnel."
▪️In his opinion, lowering the mobilization age is necessary to stabilize the front line so that some kind of agreement can be reached.
RVvoenkor
FT reports on an interview with Trump’s chosen National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who says Trump’s admin will push Ukraine to lower its mobilization age to 18:
Some have argued Waltz is not speaking for Trump, but on his own behalf. But it sounds like he’s carrying the internal message forward, though we’ll have to wait and see.
Some have read these statements as Trump subtly and deviously setting Zelensky up, forcing pressure on him in order to retain leverage and control over him for when the time comes—I’m not so convinced just yet. The ultimate question on everyone’s mind remains whether Trump will regress into the expected war hawk model of endlessly arming Ukraine, but there’s strong chance that Trump is merely trying to retain leverage on both sides, without totally giving in or rebuking either. By having Zelensky mobilize, Trump can put the expired Ukrainian president into an even more precarious position while at the same time putting perceived pressure on Putin to negotiate under the implication that US will continue to strengthen Kiev’s hand.
One commentator notes:
Trump's team is reviewing its approach to ending the conflict in Ukraine, European officials who are discussing the issue with the future US administration told the Financial Times.
One official noted that Trump's team is "obsessed with strength and the desire to look strong," which is why "they are rethinking their approach to Ukraine," he said.
Jake Sullivan again came out with a new call to lower Ukrainian mobilization age to 18, implying it’s historically ridiculous that Ukraine refuses to mobilize the prime fighting age:
These words were echoed almost verbatim by former UK Defense Secretary Wallace, who said “in 1941, we mobilized women [too]” in urging Zelensky into a total people’s mobilization:
A couple ‘insider reports’ give insight into the true depths of Ukraine’s mobilization problems.
From Rezident UA:
Inside: The failure of mobilization in Ukraine — the hidden scale of the problem
A number of our sources are confident that the situation with mobilization in Ukraine is much worse than reported in official reports and the media. Hidden data and international estimates indicate a deep crisis in the draft system, but they indicate only visible cases.
In various regions of Ukraine, aggression against military personnel is growing, and a steady trend towards hatred of any military man has formed in society. The opinion is formed in the offices of the authorities that the methods of mobilization in Ukraine are becoming more and more controversial, causing discontent among not only in society, but also among the military. The mobilization plan in 2024 was implemented by 25%, which did not allow to close the losses of the aircraft by even half. A separate problem is the increase in the number of desertion and a decrease in morale among Ukrainian military personnel, due to the low liquidity mobilized.
Russian source:
Mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the population group from 18 to 25 years seems doomed to failure. There are about 500 thousand of them on the territory of the country, and at best 30-40 thousand people will be caught in a year. Of the 500 thousand, we still need to take into account who volunteered over the past 2 years.
But one of the recent issues with Ukrainian troop shortages in particular as explained by actual complaining AFU troops themselves was that Zelensky primarily continued to privilege using all newly mobilized men for the new ‘reserve brigades’ he was building for the purpose of creating big PR spectacles like the Kursk incursion or other such psyops. So while the actual real frontline brigades fighting for important strategic towns like Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, etc., were getting a tiny trickle of new men, a bulk of fresh meat went to the new “11th Corps” with the 150+ series brigades.
Here’s one recent breakdown from a Russian source:
Body structure of the AFU. Kiev began to build it before the summer counteroffensive in 2023. Then there were two groups- the 9th and 10th Corps. Each included 5 brigades, later beaten or destroyed in the Zaporozhye region. There was also a reserve corps with the 5th brigade, which was divided into different sections and this practice was banned after that.
The 9th Corps now consists of three brigades: the 33rd and 47th Separate Mechanized Infantry Brigades, as well as 3 separate mechanized infantry brigades. This is the so-called elite.
10th corps: 116th and 118th Separate Infantry Brigades, recently converted to 117th Separate Infantry Brigade. The 11th corps is the most numerous right now, with as many as 10 brigades. This is due to its reserve status, all withdrawn brigades were transferred to it and replenished, thus accumulating there.
The 12th Corps is a dark horse, and it is likely that some brigades from the 11th
and 30th Marine Corps will be transferred to it in the near future. Its changes: 50 brigade recently became 40 separate coastal defense, moved to it. Similarly, the 39th Coastal Defense Brigade was created and assigned, out of 124 Territorial Defense brigades.The 7th corps of the DSHV, which includes all airborne airmobile brigades. They are all smeared on the front, they have a huge turnover.
However, there have been claims that after months of outrage from high-ranking military officials, Zelensky has finally caved and allowed the more liberal replenishment of active combat brigades, at least according to “scoop”-chasing Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov:
It’s not really a “win” as Tatarigami implies above—the situation was really a lose-lose zugzwang for Zelensky because staffing the regular brigades just barely forestalls the inevitable without allowing the possibility of any dark horse or ‘wild card’ attacks that could upset the balance and change the calculus. Zelensky’s ‘hedging’ of the war with these reserve brigades was a practical and smart choice as it gave him the potential to upset Russia’s applecart in some novel way. Without that, things merely return to the same inevitable attritional grind which is disastrous in calculated outlook for Ukraine.
Just throwing bodies—and increasingly less competent and motivated ones at that—at the line will not make much difference. Russian troops are increasingly seasoned, hardened, and veteran while Ukrainian ones are being replaced with ever-greener volkssturm.
Some now contend that Trump seeks to carve up the Western hemisphere—Greenland, Panama, Canada, et al—in a new Maga-Monroe Doctrine, then host a seminal Malta Conference-style sit down with Russia where spheres of influence will be hashed out, and that new ‘European security architecture’ sought-after by Putin would be codified.
Republicans in the US Congress have prepared a bill to purchase Greenland after Donald Trump takes office as president, Reuters writes.
The document was named the Make Greenland Great Again Act, and so far 10 congressmen are listed as its co-authors. If the bill is adopted, Trump will have the opportunity to begin negotiations with Denmark on the purchase of Greenland.
The problem still remains though that Trump simply cannot give up Ukraine entirely, while Putin cannot allow even a remotely threatening nationalist Ukrainian entity to exist and threaten Russia—whether it be NATO-aligned or not.
As such, it’s the ‘showdown of the century’ between immovable object and unstoppable force as neither Trump nor Putin can afford to lose face or be perceived as bending the knee. Each side represents the leadership position in the two emerging global poles—that’s right, China may be the economic driver of the Global South but Russia is the true spiritual leader in many ways. French philosopher Luc Ferry agrees:
As such, the winner of this multipolar face off stands to author the globe’s spiritual and ideological direction for the coming century; neither side can budge.
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A last few topical videos:
NATO head Mark Rutte grumbles Russia continues to produce more in three months than all of NATO in a year:
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Kharkov deputy says the Ukrainian army is simply running out and a true heart to heart needs to happen between Zelensky and the people:
"The army is running out. It's time for an adult conversation between the authorities and the population, otherwise the consequences will be critical," - Kharkiv deputy.
The President needs to conduct a detailed analysis and tell people that victory is impossible without help, - Kharkiv deputy Artem Revchuk. RVvoenkor
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And lastly, on the topic of losses, confirming why it is precisely that Ukraine is suffering such troop shortages and why mobilization remains the final hot-button topic, this Ukrainian soldier confirms that back in Rabotino, his entire battalion of nearly 600 men was wiped out in a mere five days:
Out of 600 AFU soldiers in Rabotino, 36 survived, testifies a Ukrainian soldier who was lucky to stay alive.
"We were taken to Rabotino with 600 men, and we were left with 36. They killed most of the battalion in 5 days. This is me telling you about my personal experience. I saw how 600 men were brought in. I was among them. There were 36 of us left"
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Even Simplicius is skewing the narrative to make it sound as if both sides share in a parity of urgency to settle this war. This is just not true. Russia (and China) gain the longer it goes on- in Russia's favour, natch, and to this end China will look after Russia. The object in the go-slow is to attrit western power not just militarily but economically as the old hegemon collapses into luridly self harming sanctions.
Meanwhile Russia continues to advance.
Zelenskiiy has already experienced what happens when you send new men to the fighting lines. They run away en masse. So not much real point in trying to talk up that solution. The reason Ukraine's western handlers are talking this 'solution' up, is because it throws the ball back in Zelenskiiy's court for the time being, postponing the hard talk when he will be told (if he is still around) that Ukraine is on its own. I do not mean on its own if it continues to fight when a deal is on the table for this all to stop. I mean radically abandoned to whatever solution Russia decides to execute through a new regime in a state that will have been returned fully to the Russian fold. This is where this war is going regardless of the blather. And it will end in a big summit of the big power blocs considering the issue of a globally reconciled new security architecture. Western europe does not feature at this high table unless an indulgence is granted for players to bring their pets who would howl at home else.
Western think tanks- where their group mind languishes- are already chewing on the direction in which the eastern european fringe states are likely to move- which is east. We could be looking at a new division of Germany. A new security architecture will at last concede to the real democratic will of these states and give the finger to the dying old EU hegemon.
It is so over for western europe's days in sun built on the dust of paper money during the uni- polar moment and not real resource wealth, that it is almost pointless to debate it. History ignores the verbal camouflage of the day, always has.
We have already learned from Gaza that our Western leaders are shockingly sadistic and psychotic. Now we can see they are stupid too.