I just left a comment about Israel. We have several examples of the unstoppable force meets the immovable object shaping up. It’s very disconcerting. Been stressing me out to be honest.
I don't see how Trump survives this. He has played a very poor game. My guess is there will be a point soon where the Bab el Mandeb will be closed and the pressure will really ramp up. Plus the longer Iran shows it's a match for the US the more support they will get form China and Russia. Russia is reportedly sending a lot of gear via the Caspian.
Nevermind Trump or Iran for that matter. If this thing continues the whole world is going to pay a dreadful price (hence Cenks post). Mearshimer said some oil is getting out of SoH and most from the Red Sea. However if things escalate again we are all probably FUBAR. I think if it stops NOW the situation will be problematic but not societal collapse (every country at risk).
Couple variables out there though. I am curious about all these refineries that keep getting smoked.
Am also curious how Israel responds to this. IMHO this war has never been about nukes. It’s about keeping Iran from becoming a power center in the world. The tide is turning in the West against Israel. Their approval numbers are falling like bricks. America will not be able to keep fighting their wars much longer. This thing may be as existential to them as it is Iran.
Honestly it’s probably existential to the entire world in one way or another.
I have a sheet on them. I can’t post it though I don’t think. A couple are in Russia hit by Ukraine. Many others were in BRICS counties. There’s about 10-12 of them total.
There was one in Texas but not sure how badly it was hit. Would not be beyond the CIA or Mossad hitting one of their own to throw off the scent.
All drone strikes into Russia by "Ukraine" are all CIA/Pentagon/MI-6 operations. The thin illusion that Ukraine has been striking targets deep in Russia or commercial ships in various distal seas is farcical.
Where I live, one can buy a relatively inexpensive kit to add natural gas to switch over and thus save on save on gasoline usage. Don't know if these exist in USA, but if not, why not? Same goes for Europe, although natgas is less available there. Perhaps it's a "third world" thing and therefore disdained by the mighty?
Nothing, but it seems unnecessary. Considering the entire US military, national finance resources and intelligence complex are used as mercenaries on behalf of our corporations' interests already.
Fiat currency is collapsing. The various national debt levels are so large, there is no remote ability to ever pay them off. Digital currency is certain.
Of course, the national debts are owed to the bankers who created the money in order to finance the wars they created in order to say we owe them money. Some grand day in the imaginary future, people are going to figure this out.
I dunno, maybe the fact that 40% of American Billionaires are Jews while only 2% of the population is will finally slam "Mr. Average American" in the face.
Then what's to stop him from recognizing the other 60% haven't been ripping him off for 250 years?
The Oligarchy's Golden Billion Dream is real. They want to kill you.
ChinArb offers a way out. While he doesn't say "Capitalism", his "System B" is much like China's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics".
The corruption of America must be obvious to even the most ignorant. Or am I blind?
"Am also curious how Israel responds to this. IMHO this war has never been about nukes. It’s about keeping Iran from becoming a power center in the world. "
No. The Middle East war is a China play that's been in the works for 15 years or more, basically to smother Chinese access to commerce and energy trade through vulnerable choke points; namely, Hormuz and Malacca. Take out Venezuelan oil and pirate Russian tankers on the High Seas, and China is screwed.
I keep seeing this China argument popping up out there from people who see themselves as big geostrategic thinkers, most of whom aren't American themselves. A similar position is that Israel can't possibly be leading the US in this, because the US is the imperial power (and by extension, must have some deeper plan, likely with evil geniuses orchestrating it).
The US government is a hollowed-out entity, a completely corrupted enterprise in which money laundering to politicians is one of its primary functions. It is absolutely Israel's golem.
Yes, Trump has and has long had a thing about 'beating' China and stealing Iran's oil. But he's never been a serious thinker. Those who are serious have long realized, as others have pointed out, that there was no way that war with Iran would defeat China, and it was a shoe-in for economic calamity in the US. However, Israel's objectives of weakening its regional rivals and stealing more lebensraum did seem attainable, and Trump was more compromised and receptive and dumber than his predecessors, hence, war.
"The US government is a hollowed-out entity, a completely corrupted enterprise in which money laundering to politicians is one of its primary functions. It is absolutely Israel's golem."
This^^^
That's why we have dinosaur politicians like Joe and Don-the-con. Old men
who are easily manipulated. The banker-neocon-zionists have probably been "curating" Trump from the jump. Team Israel likely has some very nasty, high quality Polaroids and videos of Trump romancing the kids. AKA as leverage. The most embarrassing part of this creepy biz is that Trump would be deathly afraid that it would be shown to all that this rodeo clown "couldn't get it up". Yeah...that level of stupidity and lack of self awareness. Voting harder won't get it done. As one commenter has written...voting in America is like kids sending Christmas wish lists to Santa.
The "tell" to all of this is that we never hear from/about Lutherans, Catholics, Presbyterians and Vegans, et al. It's always and for ever about the Jews and Israel. For a miniscule part of the population, they sure get plenty of face time in our crumbling, effed up world. Nah...prolly just a coincidence.
Tiny Israel runs the world? Huh? Such unjustified confidence comes from looking (deliberately, in order to avoid blame and responsibility) in the wrong end of the telescope. 400,000,000 Europeans; 330,000,000 Americans. A giant GDP. Thousands of nuclear weapons. $500,000,000 radar systems scattered around… All controlled by a few thousand clever, articulate, creative people? The willing suspension of disbelief!
M. Albright, Lutnick (loot-nik), Antony Blinken, Wexner-Epstein, Miriam Adelson et al...at the top of the heap of US corruption were/are all Southern Baptists, right? RIGHT!?
How's the weather In Tel aviv today? Cloudy with a chance of incoming?
I curious why the BRI rail link between Iran and China is silent, when it was built in case the sea route was blocked. The Chinese defence minister warned 3rd parties against interfering with China-Iran trade, the US boarded a tanker that carries such trade, and silence.
Also, are there links for "News continues to pour out that UAE in particular has been hard hit, with its economy allegedly nearing the brink, which is why it’s now begging the US for a lifeline."
Of course it wasn't about nukes. if the war ends now, the dollar collapses because the precedent has been set. Oil for dollars will continue to decline because the Trump card has exposed the US weakness. This is the real rock in a hard place. You remove the blockade, you lose. You invade, the world loses.
I like the way you think, but I respectfully disagree with "we are all probably FUBAR".
Nope. Only the "we" who live in the US or in countries that are US stooges are FUBAR (fucked up beyond all repair). The "all repair" part of that acronym is key, as countries other than the US and US stooges will go through a period of pain as the world re-orients itself to Persian Gulf energy and other resources disappearing into a black hole, but then they'll pull themselves out of totally fucked up status by rebalancing their relationships away from dependency on Persian Gulf inputs.
Russia, where I live, has plenty of oil, gas, food, fertilizer, and endless resources. It doesn't need anything from the Persian Gulf and will actually gain windfall profits, at least in the short and middle term. Heck, possibly even in the long term as well.
Russia also shares a long border with China, a really excellent neighbor to have to make sure you have access to absolutely everything manufactured on the planet (it's pretty much all made in China these days, no matter how it's rebranded and sold as some other country's production...) and to make sure you have a customer with an endless appetite for your oil, gas, food, fertilizer and endless resources.
China will take a hit as a result of the Europeans becoming significantly more impoverished. If the US and Israel escalate their attacks on Iran into total apocalypse for the Persian Gulf, that will likely trigger not just recessions but full on depressions in Europe, and that will cut out a lot of demand for China's manufactured goods. But then more than ever low cost production will be essential to grab share in whatever demand is left.
The US is more intertwined with its stooges than many Americans realize. They need them not for the trade that ties them (especially with Europe) but also as suckers to keep buying financialized US debt. When US stooges, including Gulf monarchies, become too poor to do that, the chickens start coming home to roost with the US's overextended debt. Without all that money printing the mammoth sums that have to go into subsidies to make fracking look more economic than it really is will be hard to scare up, and energy prices in the US will definitely go up to painful levels.
It will be hard on developing nations too, especially those who depended on fertilizer, aluminum or other inputs from Gulf states. But they can always redirect to Russia as a supplier of all that.
Russia will not escape unscathed. The Western idea of Russia being just a gas pump is wildly wrong, as energy exports are not a majority of Russia's export earnings. Other resources, like fertilizer, metals, industrial plastics, food (lots of food - Russia is an agricultural export superpower - never thought many years ago I'd ever be writing that...), and manufactured goods like car parts, consumer appliances and such make up the majority of Russia's export earnings. A lot of those are exported into the Chinese market, so if China goes through a rough patch, Russia's export earnings in those areas will also decline.
But in terms of existential impacts, what the world's other countries cannot do without are food, fertilizer to grow food, energy, and resources to keep whatever industries they do have running. Russia is either the world's largest exporter or in the top three or five in all those brackets, so sure, it may have to tighten its belt a bit but it's not facing an existential crisis.
I concur, and from what I understand China & Russia have prepared quite a bit for hard times. Are you familiar with the Deagle Report? It was released circa 2012. It basically showed a mass die off of people by year 2025. 70% of Western Nations were wiped out. They would revise it a year or two later to reflect 50% reduction.
It caused a stir in some internet circles and has been for years. Deagle is apparently a legitimate military intel company that keeps datasets on every country (how many planes, ships, etc). It is used by militaries as a reference guide.
It spurred a lot of theories. Like *Are they psychic? *Do they know about some depopulation plan?
However I read a comment once from a person stating they were familiar with how the depopulation plan came about. He basically said the West is too weak and will not do well in hard times. Talking about severe outbreaks of famine, disease, civil war, etc. It made perfect sense to me and I assumed the guy was legit.
Countries like China and Russia actually had little die off. It was anywhere from a 10% loss and some even reflected a small gain.
If Trump manages to destroy Iran, one way or another he will gain popularity as the winner. All nations love winners. The level of violence and crime is irrelevant.
Said like a true zealot. So far the "destroy Iran" threat has proved hollow. Losers of course are quickly recycled. The "it was Trump's fault" narrative is gaining traction. I'll be surprised if Trump is still Emperor by Christmas. Sorry for the bad tidings.
I mean, could be an alternative, especially for the working man in the US?
But you might be right, a country that has a president that wears a Chinese hat with the letters USA on it, probably to remember of which country he is supposed to be the president of, is not anything close to an empire anymore,
It's a mega corrupt, criminal and retarded entity, posing as a country.
Why can't Israel nuke Iran? I mean they are already committing genocide and their state was not invaded by the UN as a result.
How far do we think Iran will take their position before a nuke is incoming? Everyone who thinks Iran has all the cards, well they lack one important card.
If Israel nukes Iran, the USA will have to get involved. It will most certainly lead to Iran working to get a bomb fast so that also helps Israel keep the USA on station blasting Iran. It can start with tactical nukes along the straight and if Iran does not surrender start nuking cities.
Nuke use will also re-establish fear of the Empire.
Nuclear weapons have been greatly overrated largely because they make perfect the propaganda foil of the ultimate bad thing we must not allow to happen (and therefore justify doing whatever we want to do).
Fallout is a problem, but as seen at Chernobyl, life can survive and thrive even after a major contamination event. Over 2,000 nuclear weapons have been tested above ground since 1944. Nuclear winter did not occur, the world is still here.
A nuclear strike on a city is nothing but genocide. There will be many survivors but the world will never forget.
A nuclear strike on Iran would not defeat the Iranian military, because most of their installations are deep underground beyond the penetration depth of even the largest nuclear weapons. It would at most kill a large minority of the people in a few of its largest cities.
Iran can retaliate by hitting Dimona, causing a nuclear contamination event, and ultimately, if they really wanted revenge, I think they have some miniature ICBM's that can reach Washington, DC. If they hit Calvert Cliff's nuclear plant with a conventional ICBM on a day when the wind is blowing in the right direction, it would engulf DC in a radioactive cloud.
In short, a nuclear strike will not accomplish the goal of winning or ending the Iran War.
THE MURDER OF THE IRIS DENA – FIRST PUBLIC TESTIMONY BY THE SURVIVING CAPTAIN AND FIRST OFFICER
. In the customary laws of naval warfare, if the attacking captain can verify that the target crew is readying to abandon ship, and is not preparing counter-fire, it is unlawful for him to fire to kill. Futch also knew the Indian Navy had guaranteed that the Dena was not carrying anti-submarine torpedoes.
UKMTO reported that two small armed vessels approached a cargo ship and fired warning shots near the Somali coast, one day after Somalia announced a ban on Israeli-linked ships.
Generally speaking, I've found that whatever Trump says, expect the opposite. When he said he "expected to be bombing Iran", that made me breathe a sigh of relief that the ceasefire was going to be extended
The obvious mutual-blockade dropping should've been done, but wasn't done.
The question now is what breaks first. To date, we have not seen major economic data in the US since the start of the war. March numbers didn't tell much, no time for the effect to hit. Europe has already shown a jump in inflation, faster than i expected. Now we need the US.
Trump sees things we don't; his cabinet has real time access to economic numbers. And to me the evidence is very clear that a recession is on the way, and major inflation is absolutely certain.
The Gulf countries are making the mistake of the ages, a truly epic strategic blunder, by handing over their foreign policy to the US and letting them run wild with it.
Their ministers send out mixed messages. One says US and Israeli cooperation will double down. The next says "we dont need US bases anymore, we demonstrated we can defend ourselves, we just want to buy your stuff" (which is a clever way to acquiesce to iranian demands). One thing is for sure, if your strategy is to align with Trump then your desired outcome better be whatever is best for him. Else youre out of your mind
I agree. The official UAE line remains very much anti-mollah but the reality is that not having peace is an existential threat for the Emirates. If a solution cannot be found within the next 2-3 months, my (educated) guess is that foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving. And foreigners make up 90% of the population...
Regime change in Iran having failed, the UAE need to initiate some form of dialogue with the existing regime - as Saudi Arabia did last year.
There are plenty of intelligent people in the UAE government - which attracts many among the best and brightest (unlike, alas, what now seems to be the norm in the West). I hope they will reassess their foreign policy and start focusing on the upside potential of peace with Iran - even if their current priority is to rethink security arrangements based on the painful experience of the past couple of months.
A proper economic zone in the Gulf would be ~200mn ppl blessed with every conceivable resource. This to me is such an obvious end-state and a tragedy that it isn't being pursued. The Gulf states are very much a "empire of one" to the extent that even within their countries they favor one region over the other - Saudi favoring "Central" region, UAE favoring Abu Dhabi, etc.
regarding a "proper economic zone", i'd say, will not happen in 1000 years. remember, Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 due to lack of cooperation to gauge oil prices. Kuwait wanted to damage iraq economically by oil over production (while it would've been profitable for both sides to reach an economically beneficial solution for example). just few years back, GCC countries besieged Qatar (itself a member of GCC ) for about 4 years, due to dispute over its sponsored media coverage of the affairs of other gulf states. that doesn't even start to cover the deeply rooted hatred between the "arab" side of the gulf, and the "Persian" side all way back to early days of Islamic empire. if there is any kind of cooperation between arabs and Iranians, Iran will dominate the region due to its rich culture, ingenuity and history compared to the gulf. the Arab gulf would rather demolish the temple than to let that happen
Iran is a complicated and vast place. Im no fan or friend of the irgc and the mullahs but the country is so much more than that. There is some truth to the regime change argument. But only some. You're right about the rest of the gulf. They are politically still very immature, tribal, and lack vision that extends beyond their own borders
Iraq invaded Kuwait with tacit consent from the United States (and Donald Rumsfeld… Yes, that Donald Rumsfeld) who then double crossed them, because th US and Kuwait were cross-drilling under the Kuwait/Iraq border stealing oil… Very on-brand to be sure.
Nothing the U.S. has said about foreign policy for the last 80 years is true, all they do is lie 24/7.
Just like Ukraine was a victim, so too was Kuwait (and the fake babies in those fake stolen incubators) an Iraq WMD’s. The U.S. and their European doormats excel in lies, deceit, and stealing our money! Time to string these fuqs up like the Road to Meereen in Game of Thrones! STRING THEM ALL UP!
the gulf states have until summer to wrap up the situation (at the latest). if it's not resolved by then, the damage will be permanent. summer months is usually vacation season when expats travel back to their home countries anyway, so the current situation forced a lot to make it earlier and extended. so far, a lot of expats working remotely, using up their vacations ...etc trying to see how it plays out to avoid making a decision of moving entirely out of the region. also, a lot didnt have a chance to sell their properties ...etc. UAE is put on hold for the time being, it will take a lot of time to restore its reputation. it's currently sustained by media blockade, arresting people, and threatening to fire anyone (not rich enough) if they decided to take extended leave due to situation. they are really desperate to convey a message of "everything is normal, fantastic", which means, according to region tradition, it's collapsing faster than imagined.
They don’t have that long… When the heat in the Gulf states rise late spring, early summer, without power these countries become uninhabitable without air conditioning, which means power.
These posers are on notice, and short time. Good riddance to these degenerate fuqs!
"If a solution cannot be found within the next 2-3 months, my (educated) guess is that foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving."
Hell. If hostilities start up again, Iran can take out the electric grid with a few key strikes, making the Gulf States uninhabitable in the desert heat. There's no reason not to declare neutrality and force the US out of the Gulf. The Us isn't protecting anyone; quite the contrary.
"foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving." Some already damaged or destroyed. I believe this is already happening. UAE is not likely to recover to its former glory... Chip
They don't have a choice. Look at where they are geographically. The UAE will collapse as a result of this war especially if it continues in any meaningful, or even smoldering, fashion... Chip
UAE is a fairly advanced country. They built four nuclear power plants, one after the other. 5+ GW. And get this: the person who got the honor of bringing up the first one to criticality was a woman engineer. After something like that you no longer need a resume!
>The question now is what breaks first. To date, we have not seen major economic data in the US since the start of the war.
So far there has been close to zero real cost imposed on the US elites. Which is all that matters.
Trump is alive. Hegseth is alive. Vance is alive. Rubio is alive. Bibi alive (despite the rumors from early in the war), and all his genocidal cabinet members are unharmed too. No US general has been taken out either. And no member of the oligarchic business elites who really run things.
So Iran has completely failed to impose deterrence when it comes to threatening the physical security of the respective elites of the two countries. The US has total advantage here.
Then there is the copium of the "economy". But what people don't understand is that whenever there is a major economic crisis in the US, it is not the elites that are hurt, it is the common people. Invariably the crisis is used to engineer yet another upwards wealth redistribution. It was like that in 2008, it was like that with COVID. "Inflation" does not scare the US elites, they don't feel it in any way. And the US will be least affected anyway, the effects will be primarily on Europe and Asia.
Thus Iran isn't making the people who matter in the US hurt all that much, or at all, on the economic front either.
Finally, a lot of the Zionist billionaires people are fanatics who don't actually care primarily about money, if they did, they would not be spending so much on funding Israel. Those people will only stop what they are doing if they are physically eliminated.
But Iran has not done any of that so far, and it has had close to two months to get it organized. Or many years really, it should have had well laid in place plans for doing it long, long ago. It is not that hard -- Hezbollah is very good with ATGMs and drones, the southern US border hardly exists, you can smuggle anything. And not only through there -- shipping containers are not inspected one by one. So what are they waiting for?
One more thing to add -- if you want to really destabilize the internal situation in the US, you do that once again precisely by going after elites.
Imagine what happens if ATGMs and drones start flying from concealed positions in the forests in the hills above SV into the mansions on those hills and the likes of Larry Ellison living in Los Altos and Woodside get the same treatment the IDF has been dishing out to Resistance leaders in Lebanon, and the same thing also starts to happen in the equivalent areas around NYC and DC.
There are ways to arrange that that are not at all difficult for a competent state actor to pull off, and to not just arrange for a few demonstrative strikes, but to sustain it. US internal security is a complete joke.
So what happens once a few high-profile hits are scored and the attacks continue is that the US elites will totally freak out in a way that makes the post-9/11 period look tame, and living in the US will become a total nightmare of oppressive surveillance and security overreach, to such an extent that there may well finally be a real push back from the population.
Combine that with oil prices at $150-200 and we are getting somehwere. But just high oil prices alone won't do much.
1) to take out the Northern Fleet from point blank range
2) to enable large-scale conventional ground operations into northwestern Russia from Finland, by taking away Russia's option to just erase Finland from the map. What I have been warning for a long time
Russia cannot invade, it will be just as bad as in Ukraine, Finland is, you can be sure about that, being pumped with drones and ATGMs, and anything you can think of.
The only winning move here is to preemptively wipe it out and then move in with ground forces, before they have placed any nukes in there. And that has to happen now. There is no time to waste.
In Iran's own words, they could not compete militarily, and they pursued asymmetric responses. But they didn't go far enough, not nearly.
I agree that their inability to target or assassinate anyone (they lost their head of state ffs), nor inflict a high profile cost (sinking a vessel for example), nor create issues in the western hemisphere, all points to a net-loss position. Their whole strategy appears to rest on 1) We can keep the Hormuz closed and hope that hurts you more/faster than it hurts us and 2) We have a strong chin and can take your best shots and still stay alive, and their whole "strategic defeat" involves a recession on the world, which given enough time will result in even those sympathetic to them now turning against them
No one will blame Iran when everyone knows who started this thing for real.
To spin this thing around and blame the victim might work with retarded and illiterate US-people, the rest of the world will laugh about the lies and fabrications of reality the US uses because there is nothing else left.
Iran has the right to defend itself and every human with two brain cells that function in a humanitarian way will support Iran against the murderers, child f*ckers and corrupt, criminal scum that thinks of themself as exceptional.
You are sitting at a bar when a big, aggressive biker walks into the bar with a buddy. They walk up to a guy minding his own business at a table in the corner of the bar and the biker's buddy slaps the innocent guy in the face. The big biker then lands a punch right in the mouth before the innocent guy can even fight back.
The innocent guy proceeds to pull out a can of mace and spray it at the two guys attacking him. The mace quickly spreads around the confined space of the bar. Unfortunately for the rest of the patrons at the bar, the exits are blocked. Meanwhile the big guy has his buddy slip on some gas masks, and continue swinging at their victim, who keeps spraying them, while other patrons in the bar lie on ground writhing, trying to breathe.
Let's break this scenario down:
1. Are the biker and his buddy ultimately responsible for this? Yes.
2. Is the 'innocent guy' to blame for this fight? No.
3. Is the use of mace hurting the biker and his buddy? No.
4. Is it hurting other innocent bar patrons? Yes.
Let's give the innocent guy some leeway. In the first few minutes of the fracas he might have believed he could put down the biker and his buddy with the mace. But past that point it should be apparent that he is not achieving that and instead hurting innocent people.
At this point, if you were on the floor struggling to breathe, would you?
a) be shouting your support to the guy spraying the mace, knowing that this is achieving nothing of strategic value except suffocating you
b) yelling at him to stop, and starting to hope that the the biker and his buddy kick the macer's ass and stop him spraying mace?
I find it astonishing how little moral nuance some people are capable of. I would previously have thought that this level of cognitive impairment would preclude being able to read or write, but it appears I was wrong.
The analogy fails here though, because the way you are describing it the other people in the bar are not actively helping the aggressor, while in the case of Iran they are.
What do you mean they are helping the aggressor? Do you mean Iran (the original victim) is actively helping the biker and his buddy with their response?
Are you serious? But thanks for proving my point, one needs such a twisted mindset to blame the victim. And of course in your retarded story no one comes to the conclusion to help the innocent guy and take the attackers out with a collective go at them. Being fat and brutal is never securing a win. In my story, they're at least two other massive guys, one named China and the other Russia who won't let the innocent man fight alone. Do you think the aggressive biker won't shit his pants suddenly after realizing he miscalculated terribly?
Surprised that a different option wasn't presented. If I were one of the crowd when the thugs put on the gas masks, before I started being choked by the mace I'd have hit the bigger one with a chair before doing the same to the other, expecting other innocents like myself would join me in an attack to subdue the villains of the piece. Perhaps my expectations are too high, but someone has to take action in situations of this type, improbable though this one may be as an example.
You conveniently left out option c): the other patrons of the bar yelling at the bikers to GTFO. Gee, in such a carefully written analogy, how is it you missed the most obvious and correct answer?
Besides, your analogy is also flawed from the standpoint of who the "innocent" people are. These Gulf Monarchies that allow the US to build bases there from which to attack Iran, or that let "Israeli" jets overfly their airspace to attack Iran, are not analogous to "innocent" people. If anything they are the "bikers'" accomplices or employees of the biker gang of which the two guys in your scenario are members, and which owns the bar in question and/or has blackmail material on every single patron in the place.
Yelling is of course very effective in bar fights and most bullies will stop bullying a victim as soon as someone yells at them. If you went outside occasionally you would presumably know this.
I think the elites will hurt as the AI bubble is very energy dependent. Increased losses could bust the bubble. OpenAI shutdown Sora, their video generation service, an acknowledgement that this service was never going to be profitable, and possibly a preemptive move to rectify their increasing losses.
If the bubble does burst, expect an attempt to get a GFC type bailout, but this time, it might not work.
I think those sympathetic to them are behind them all the way - because they are next. You didn't mention Israel - I agree with you that they didn't do enough in the first round to destroy it, so hopefully when it kicks off again, they finish the job and leave it looking like Gaza. Also hoping they take out a couple of carriers. In short, I doubt they'll lose any friends.
I agree with your point about "elites" GM - and that goes for all those in the West.
All this violence, misery and so on and they remain in the clouds, eating the best food, flying on private jets, sending their children to the best schools and so on. They appear to be looking down from above without any consequences.
This will continue until they are hit and hit hard.
When I try tell people this they think I am on the side of the USA and Israel. But it is obvious that closing the strait of Hormuz does not hurt the US elites at all.
And people misunderstand how wealthy the US is - Johnny American may have to have 400 chicken nuggets for dinner instead of 500 and may have to walk to his next door neighbor's house for a barbecue instead of driving. He won't like it, but it's not causing any actual harm. Instead Iran is punishing the peasants of the poorest nations in the world for whom food inflation and economic contraction makes a concrete difference to whether or not they can feed themselves.
Iran can cause real harm in the region to the US and its allies by targeting fuel infrastructure and desalination plants, but it's not doing that. Why? Because it will be aware that US has actual nuclear weapons and Trump is just waiting for an excuse to use them. The Iran regime surviving that is wishful thinking, if the Imperial Japanese lacked the resolve to continue fighting after being nuked, I doubt Iran will continue fighting after a nuclear attack.
As I have been saying for a long time, Iran's only useful move here is to unveil ICBMs and thermonuclear warheads for them, by firing and detonating one close to the Florida coast, or perhaps even somewhere in the desert in Nevada.
Once they do that, the US will back off.
Until they do it, the US will keep attacking them.
Just as the saying goes, "Knowing the first, not knowing the second," the truth is that the trigger for Japan's decision to surrender was not the two U.S. atomic bombs (August 7 and 9), but rather an unconditional surrender (under U.S. protection) resulting from the decision of the Imperial Palace Conference on August 14, driven by a sense of crisis stemming from the Soviet Red Army's invasion of Manchuria, North Korea, Sakhalin, and the Northern Islands. The fact that the Japanese government refuses to disclose the minutes of the surrender conference is the cause that has allowed for the distortion of history by the United States.
At the rate we are going we're going to get real-world confirmation of how effective nuclear weapons are at generating surrender. Presumably someone in the US chain of command is aware of the fact that an air bombing campaign has never achieved this, which doesn't leave them with many options. Perhaps we should be thankful that they're first trying to suffocate the Iranian economy,
They've *been* suffocating the Iranian economy for decades, and on steroids since Trumpstein's first term. That's why the Iranians became self-sufficient (with some minor, mostly unsolicited, help from Russia and China) in their weapons manufacturing ability and certain sectors of their economy.
Regardless, as has been pointed out to you, the Japanese surrender had virtually nothing (if anything at all) to do with the atomic bombs, which themselves are equivalent to shorter versions of massive air bombing campaigns (see: firebombing of Tokyo or Dresden). And as you noted, air bombing campaigns alone do not evoke surrenders. If the US or Isntreal decide to use nukes on Iran, the Iranians won't surrender either. And it will invite some serious knock-on effects including retaliatory military attacks and probably a larger regional war. Maybe even global.
Iran has said they have some cards to play, the likes of which have not been seen yet.
Iran isn't punishing anyone. The bullies who took over the bar in your analogy are. The desalinization plants and oilfields being targeted by Iran (when they aren't being targeted by Israeli false flags) are moneymakers for the elites in the Gulf Monarchy and other Arab oil producing states. They are the ones punishing their own people by allowing the US to build bases there thus making their citizens indirect targets when the US uses their land and airspace (and people as employees) to conduct attacks on Iran. And when the bullies stop targeting Iranian infrastructure to hurt the ~90M innocent people in Iran, the Iranians will stop "spraying the mace."
As for more indirect offshoot effects on countries like Sri Lanka and Australia, maybe they too should re-evaluate their relationships with Uncle Scam and his biker buddy Isntreal.
Ah, just what the world needs, another dose of GM's Patented Universal Cure-All (TM), just assassinate everyone and foment civil war (and if that does not work nuke them).
"We'll drink a drink a drink
To Lily the Pink the Pink the Pink
The saviour of the human race
For she invented medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case."
The only problem is this is EXACTLY the same mindset as the people you claim should be eliminated, ergo.......... should you start with yourself?
They can't touch us here in the JUSA. But they have destroyed a half dozen or more US bases in the region. The JUSA was NOT expecting that. If Iran was losing as bad as you say, they would be at the negotiation table now. Fact is, they punched the bully in the nose and the bully is not sure what to do next... Chip
Or they smuggle a nuke into Baltimore stadium when the presidents and his staff is there to try and provoke a war between the US and Russia! Or they release canisters of airborne ebola at a convention center. Or they crash a plane into the Capitol and take out everyone but one guy who then becomes president and cleans house. Or they try to crash the stock market. Unfortunately for the bad guys the protagonists are unnaturally competent while for them Murphys law is very much real so the plot foils or fizzles. The moral of the story is that even if north Korea, Iran, china, Russia, and various terrorist groups seem weak, thats what makes them desperate enough to do a bolt out of the blue attack the US homeland thanks to some well characterized evil masterminds, so you should never let your guard down or cut defense spending
Do you really think his administration knows the country's economic situation? That they have the slightest competence or qualification for it? Don't confuse the people serving their lords with the reverse.
Yes, I do think they know. I know its really tempting to paint them as a bunch of incompetent fools, but they are not. Duplicituos, perfidious, vile, deceitful, arrogant, obnoxious - yes. But not incompetent.
The man who ran his casinos into the ground and declared bankruptcy too many times to count failed upwards all the way to the presidency, on nothing but pure BS. Says a lot about American voters by the way. And now he's about to run the country into the ground as he did with his businesses. At some point BS has to meet reality, and reality always wins. His last failed business is the USA. And here's the kicker: his delusional narcissistic mindset means he can't confront his own shortcomings, he has to keep doubling down on the BS to avoid his worst nightmare, that maybe he really is a failure. I hope that his doubling down is limited to his daily bluster and bloviations, and that the military does not give this man-child the keys to the nuclear codes.
The US just boarded a vessel that services the China-Iran route, despite the Chinese defence minister's warning not to interfere with trade. I would love to see China escort their ships, but they are quiet.
With their economy, manufacturing capacity, high tech stuff, $400 Billion defense budget (only second to the USA), 2 million strong military ("undergoing extensive modernization, focusing on enhancing its naval and air capabilities, as well as expanding its nuclear arsenal.) - I don't think I would consider China a "paper tiger". The last time they were occupied was by Japan 1939-1945. The last time there was a civil war was 1945-1949. I suspect that a lot has changed since then.
for sure they are on par-ish with the west technology/equipment wise, i don't dispute this.
but culturally speaking i just don't think they have what is needed; maybe i'm mistaking, maybe i'm racist but i just don't think pla can show vs the west/nato.
wars are won not only by equipment.
tho i hope this will remain an hypothetical discussion :)
le: thing is mainland will be hit with standoff weapons while the economy will be chocked by blockades; ultimately, like the japanese in ww2, they will need to try to break the blockade and that means loosing home advantage.
mass mobilization would be a catastrophe for them.
this is mostly ignored in this discussions but look at russia which is in a somewhat better situation but still has major economic problems due to not enough labour force.
i think this is one of the reasons china invests massive in automation and robots but tbh what i saw is mostly copying the west for now.
USIsreal's second act in their latest perfidious war of aggression is degenerating into farce. What else could it have been, led by a completely compromised POTUS with a preexisting personality disorder complicated by frontotemporal dementia? Still, the recent piracy of a fully loaded, China bound, Very Large Crude Carrier is yet another escalation. Despite the last minute 'ceasefire' extension, it is hard to see anything but escalation on the horizon.
Yes, of course they care. Xi has come out and expressed the damage being done to the global economy by having the strait closed. Further, Iran is integral to their plans for BRICS and the east-west economic corridor. So there is that... Chip
It is obvious USA cannot lob missiles non stop anymore, otherwise they would be doing it and not negotiate.
When you frame "the other" as murderous lunatics, then you do not negotiate with people like that, right? New Nazis, Hitler and whatnot. Cliche, repetitive American dehumanizing lingo.
that is long gone, smothered by islam through arabs and turks.
there isn't any kind of civilization there now, just primitive islamic tribes occupying some territory in the name of their retarded god and trying to impose this shit on their neighbors too.
Keep you're head in the sand as your complete ignorance about the country of Iran and the Persian people is being demonstrated in spades right now... Chip
Well you want to think so. They aren't executing women. Where on earth do you get your news from? Honestly the lies you idiots tell about Iran is insane. Your envy of other civilisations drives your rage.
It is fascinating and intriguing that someone like you is reading this. Please take a look at the video by Canadian lawyer Dimitri Lascaris, who covered the situation in Iran two weeks ago.
I can only surmise that you're ignorant as well as uneducated 🤔 if, as is entirely possible, you don't know the history of the Middle East (which is quite possible seeing westerners (Americans specifically) know little about other areas) conversation is likely to be difficult to sustain.
I'd say take a crash course in Iranian history, but I don't believe even that minimal effort can be sustained by you. Ignorance of a 7000 yr old civilisation is par for the course with idiots who wear their stupidity like a flag.
Iran is in fact a nation of scientists and engineers. Modern Europeans, on the other hand, are a collection of barely sentient ape creatures, which is why Iran is winning and Europeans are losing.
Iran will soon have a MAJOR problem to contend with. If they cannot sell their oil, they cannot empty their storage, and they will be forced to shut in production. THAT will lead to destruction of their oil fields. Coupled with the significant loss of revenue that bribes, er, pays the ruling guards, things could get very messy indeed. People think Trump has no cards to play, but this card is already in play.
Your feeling are “trumped” by oilfield mechanics. It’s the same everywhere, in every field. Shutting in conventional production leads to fields getting ruined.
IIran told what the next stepp would be, closing the red see, and also destroy all pipelines which lead to the red see, with that absolut 0% percent of oil from whol area will be exportet, means the remaining 30% of capacity of export there will be stopped then. about bombing the hell out of the US in the area we do not need to talk further, menas also attacking all US Shipps... so sure their export will be ruined, but also the whole thing for the whole world too...
The power that will open the straights, deliver that oil, and the enormous profits that it represents, out of Iran and to the markets, is the distributed mind called "Global Capitalism".
That power is much greater than Donald Trump, The White House and the US Navy.
The Spice must flow, and it will flow. If the Washington / Tel Aviv axis could have installed a Tehran regime to their liking then it would have been much better for them, but they couldn't.
The Spice will flow regardless and a reasonable spice tax / levy / tariff will go to Tehran and therefore a certain $ % will go on to the fedayeen.
Yah, that guy is off his rocker... Iran has been loading a lot of ships from Kharg all day, every day. Western MSM actually made a note of that.. and then quickly buried that as it was too embarassing for Trump.
what about the damage to other gulf countries like kuwait, iraq, and bahrain which cannot export their oil and have no way to store it? iraq already shut down production after 1st week of war. it's the same game for everyone involved. after the war ends, who do you think will redevelop these oil fields? US/EU companies or Chinese and Russian companies , giving them even more leverage in the region? trump war on iran was a dump stupid idea no matter which way you look at it.
You repeat what "everyone" has known since Hormuz was closed.
The consequences to the rest of the world are just now beginning to be felt.
Iran don't care.
[Edit: let’s say Iran has other priorities. It isn’t as if they want the world to starve. Iran finds itself between a rock and a hard place. I choose to support Iran. I regret the suffering that many will feel around the world. I don’t have a solution.]
I care, but if the result is the removal of the End-State (parasitic) Capitalists from control of the world, it seems like a price I'm willing to pay. Of course, being an American, I have no idea what that cost might be. I only know I'm tired of being told how the rest of the world wants to kill me when ICE is deployed across the continent. ICE represents the present danger. The Lion vs the chipmunk. (a strained metaphor?)
is the same method british empire used, gunboat diplomacy.
institute a blockade and play the factions against each other until the economic hardship and internal strife break the enemy.
iranians are very arrogant and brought this shit unto them.
they could have pursued the nuke in secret but they are too arrogant for that and in their stupidity they really thought they can blackmail the whole world with that strait.
0 knowledge of history, 0 understanding of world economy.
just a bunch of deluded goat fuckers and their death cult.
Maybe the national Svengalis want the folliwing... US munitions situation to become a sheer crisis, Iran to effectively autonomously rearm, more salvoa back and forth, and then the US with backs to the wall from ammo shortages sets off nukes to even things out? Wouldn't put it past them
Current JCS Chairman, General Dan Caine, reportedly (according to Larry C. Johnson, CIA, ret) was asked by Trump for the nuclear codes on April 3rd and General Caine refused.
Maybe the JCS Chairman has a copy of the DJT's pdf file? The rest of Johnson's story is that after throwing a tantrum, DJT was escorted out of the situation room so the adults could formulate a plan to rescue the downed F-15 crew.
"While I still do not have any independent confirmation that there was a tussle between Trump and Caine over the potential use of nuclear weapons in Iran, General Caine reportedly is increasingly pushing back on Trump’s desire to expand the war in hopes of securing a cheap, easy victory."
That sounds much more believable but Larry Johnson isn't someone I would put much trust in personally. My guess is the nuclear codes story was a scare tactic dutifully ignored by the Iranians.
True, they must share something. All useful sources but hardly reliable in a crisis. LJ lost me when he was berating his sister for disbelieving 9/11 was an Al Qaeda job. Obviously running cover. How could any impartial analyst believe that!
I believe Trump asked Caine about the USE of nuke, NOT for codes. And I think Caine frowned of the use of nukes. That is more likely what happened. Trump has the codes already as the National Command Authority. But there is a chain of events that has to happen to make those codes useful... Chip
This 'war' could still be mostly as per a plan by the US to force oil & gas buyers to buy from the US to support their economy & dollar than about actually defeating Iran.
Don't have enough of that either. And we are STILL building plants here in South Texas, including hundreds of miles of pipeline that are not yet in the ground, for LNG production. The ports and trains for the later are still under construction, moving like crazy, but still will not be online for several years... Chip
Whatever this "war" was intended, they have failed worst than miserably. Look at all the destruction that Iran has left against the US military and Israel in its wake.
We would need to produce like 2-3x more than we normally do to make up the shortfall. We can maybe get up to 6 mbpd of crude, we're currently around 4-5. The Gulf was seeing volumes of 10+. We can't make it up, and even if we could in some peter pan world, the entire planet doesn't have enough VLCC/LCCs to actually transport it anywhere.
The US produces about 13-14 mbpd. The US consumes about 20 mbpd. There is no way the US can provide oil to others without starving themselves. We make up our shortfalls from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and the ME... Chip
Actually, not quite correct. We produce primarily light 'sweet' oil, which we then export out to overseas refineries. We import a lot of heavier 'sour' oil, which we refine and then utilize or ship back out. Also very dependent on the state you're in. I'm not an expert on this at all, mostly a very basic surface level understanding, but the overall picture is pretty complicated. The apples to apples comparison can somewhat be made with overall oil shortfalls because of the Hormuz blockades, but within US production volumes we can't really compare how much we consume vs produce like that.
It is quite correct in the aggregate (as you hinted) and I've been studying this for decades including through and for the military. Of course there are always nuances to everything as you point out but the aggregate numbers are correct. You can look up the stats yourself. If I were you, I wouldn't trust me either LOL... Chip
Allow me to update the numbers in which US production has increased greatly in the last two years. Keep in mind that the production number for the US also include natural gas liquids which ups the production numbers significantly. But in the aggregate the US produces about 20 mbpd and consumes 20 mbpd. Yes we export some and import some and the waters get muddied further depending on raw crude or refined products but the aggregate is still correct. Point being the JUSA is NOT going to become the world's gas station as Trump the clown suggests. It's just not possible unless they want to squeeze out domestic consumption and plan on $10/gallon gas and $15/gallon diesel here in the JUSA... Chip
I just left a comment about Israel. We have several examples of the unstoppable force meets the immovable object shaping up. It’s very disconcerting. Been stressing me out to be honest.
the war is over and your beloved child rapists are mostly in the ground where they belong along with the sewage.
the us will bomb any leadership irgcc choose until they fold while blockading them.
it's khamenover =))))
👎
Vade always sides with the aggressor.
Gimmicks!
Too much Trump-talk here and elsewhere. Making the clown politicians and their stupid pronouncements the center of discussions.
I don't see how Trump survives this. He has played a very poor game. My guess is there will be a point soon where the Bab el Mandeb will be closed and the pressure will really ramp up. Plus the longer Iran shows it's a match for the US the more support they will get form China and Russia. Russia is reportedly sending a lot of gear via the Caspian.
Nevermind Trump or Iran for that matter. If this thing continues the whole world is going to pay a dreadful price (hence Cenks post). Mearshimer said some oil is getting out of SoH and most from the Red Sea. However if things escalate again we are all probably FUBAR. I think if it stops NOW the situation will be problematic but not societal collapse (every country at risk).
Couple variables out there though. I am curious about all these refineries that keep getting smoked.
Am also curious how Israel responds to this. IMHO this war has never been about nukes. It’s about keeping Iran from becoming a power center in the world. The tide is turning in the West against Israel. Their approval numbers are falling like bricks. America will not be able to keep fighting their wars much longer. This thing may be as existential to them as it is Iran.
Honestly it’s probably existential to the entire world in one way or another.
"I am curious about all these refineries that keep getting smoked."
Yes, seems like a very random worldwide oil refinery bad week. Cui bono?
I have a sheet on them. I can’t post it though I don’t think. A couple are in Russia hit by Ukraine. Many others were in BRICS counties. There’s about 10-12 of them total.
There was one in Texas but not sure how badly it was hit. Would not be beyond the CIA or Mossad hitting one of their own to throw off the scent.
Mexico, Australia, India
All drone strikes into Russia by "Ukraine" are all CIA/Pentagon/MI-6 operations. The thin illusion that Ukraine has been striking targets deep in Russia or commercial ships in various distal seas is farcical.
in practical terms: automakers, investing in converting existing models into EVs. financially the LPG guys.
Where I live, one can buy a relatively inexpensive kit to add natural gas to switch over and thus save on save on gasoline usage. Don't know if these exist in USA, but if not, why not? Same goes for Europe, although natgas is less available there. Perhaps it's a "third world" thing and therefore disdained by the mighty?
I've seen these, but almost never in the US.
In the US, gasoline is relatively cheap and plentiful.
Good bye Diesel. Hello China and the new EV market capture. <<link>>
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/soaring-diesel-costs-mean-electric?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
I wondered what would stop an oil company from hiring some Ukrainians to drone the competition?
Nothing, but it seems unnecessary. Considering the entire US military, national finance resources and intelligence complex are used as mercenaries on behalf of our corporations' interests already.
Perhaps the world could keep the wheel's of industry turning by burning the world's entire supply of Politicians and Bankers
This is exactly intended. It saves the efforts to force people globally into controlled digital money slavery. The Cathrine Austin Fitts approach.
Fiat currency is collapsing. The various national debt levels are so large, there is no remote ability to ever pay them off. Digital currency is certain.
Of course, the national debts are owed to the bankers who created the money in order to finance the wars they created in order to say we owe them money. Some grand day in the imaginary future, people are going to figure this out.
"Israel"? What's that?
I dunno, maybe the fact that 40% of American Billionaires are Jews while only 2% of the population is will finally slam "Mr. Average American" in the face.
Then what's to stop him from recognizing the other 60% haven't been ripping him off for 250 years?
The Oligarchy's Golden Billion Dream is real. They want to kill you.
ChinArb offers a way out. While he doesn't say "Capitalism", his "System B" is much like China's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics".
The corruption of America must be obvious to even the most ignorant. Or am I blind?
No you're not blind. You're just not chained up in Plato's Cave.
"Am also curious how Israel responds to this. IMHO this war has never been about nukes. It’s about keeping Iran from becoming a power center in the world. "
No. The Middle East war is a China play that's been in the works for 15 years or more, basically to smother Chinese access to commerce and energy trade through vulnerable choke points; namely, Hormuz and Malacca. Take out Venezuelan oil and pirate Russian tankers on the High Seas, and China is screwed.
In what mind can a 'China is screwed' come up?
China is 4 times the population of the USA and the worlds most powerful production & science place.
How on earth can the USA even think about to go against a country like this?
Are the US-people really that retarded already that they're unable to see that this is a one way road into self destruction?
On top of that China keeps building, trust and physical value.
The USA bring nothing to the table but destruction, murder, war crimes and utter stupidity.
To whom do you think the world will turn when shit hits the pan?
The only nation who is screwed here is the USA, it's not even a state anymore, it's a corrupt, criminal entity like their so called Jewish buddy.
Russia said China can buy from them as much as China needs to replace the short fall.
Btw, Russia supplies to China is via pipelines. You need to read wider and not just Foxnews.
I keep seeing this China argument popping up out there from people who see themselves as big geostrategic thinkers, most of whom aren't American themselves. A similar position is that Israel can't possibly be leading the US in this, because the US is the imperial power (and by extension, must have some deeper plan, likely with evil geniuses orchestrating it).
The US government is a hollowed-out entity, a completely corrupted enterprise in which money laundering to politicians is one of its primary functions. It is absolutely Israel's golem.
Yes, Trump has and has long had a thing about 'beating' China and stealing Iran's oil. But he's never been a serious thinker. Those who are serious have long realized, as others have pointed out, that there was no way that war with Iran would defeat China, and it was a shoe-in for economic calamity in the US. However, Israel's objectives of weakening its regional rivals and stealing more lebensraum did seem attainable, and Trump was more compromised and receptive and dumber than his predecessors, hence, war.
I think you speak much truth CPS.
"The US government is a hollowed-out entity, a completely corrupted enterprise in which money laundering to politicians is one of its primary functions. It is absolutely Israel's golem."
This^^^
That's why we have dinosaur politicians like Joe and Don-the-con. Old men
who are easily manipulated. The banker-neocon-zionists have probably been "curating" Trump from the jump. Team Israel likely has some very nasty, high quality Polaroids and videos of Trump romancing the kids. AKA as leverage. The most embarrassing part of this creepy biz is that Trump would be deathly afraid that it would be shown to all that this rodeo clown "couldn't get it up". Yeah...that level of stupidity and lack of self awareness. Voting harder won't get it done. As one commenter has written...voting in America is like kids sending Christmas wish lists to Santa.
The "tell" to all of this is that we never hear from/about Lutherans, Catholics, Presbyterians and Vegans, et al. It's always and for ever about the Jews and Israel. For a miniscule part of the population, they sure get plenty of face time in our crumbling, effed up world. Nah...prolly just a coincidence.
Tiny Israel runs the world? Huh? Such unjustified confidence comes from looking (deliberately, in order to avoid blame and responsibility) in the wrong end of the telescope. 400,000,000 Europeans; 330,000,000 Americans. A giant GDP. Thousands of nuclear weapons. $500,000,000 radar systems scattered around… All controlled by a few thousand clever, articulate, creative people? The willing suspension of disbelief!
Seems by clever you mean inclined to cheating, by articulate you mean manipulative, and by creative you mean scheming. No?
You're joking, right? Yeah, Greenspan, Kissinger, Vicky "cookies" Nuland,
M. Albright, Lutnick (loot-nik), Antony Blinken, Wexner-Epstein, Miriam Adelson et al...at the top of the heap of US corruption were/are all Southern Baptists, right? RIGHT!?
How's the weather In Tel aviv today? Cloudy with a chance of incoming?
Look over THERE! A squirrel!
The answer to the Trump/Epstein riddle is the daughter. Even the few publicly available pictures are startling what a creepy pedo he was/is.
I curious why the BRI rail link between Iran and China is silent, when it was built in case the sea route was blocked. The Chinese defence minister warned 3rd parties against interfering with China-Iran trade, the US boarded a tanker that carries such trade, and silence.
Also, are there links for "News continues to pour out that UAE in particular has been hard hit, with its economy allegedly nearing the brink, which is why it’s now begging the US for a lifeline."
China will be silently repaying the JUSA for this act... Chip
China is already defeated from the moment it was unable to react to US provocations. The USA is already stealing Chinese oil without any response.
Troll alert!
This isn't a board game. China, like Russia and Iran, play the "long game".
All three will be around when the USA is just a piss-hole in the snow.
We are living in interesting times, frightening as it is though.. (from Johannesburg)
Of course it wasn't about nukes. if the war ends now, the dollar collapses because the precedent has been set. Oil for dollars will continue to decline because the Trump card has exposed the US weakness. This is the real rock in a hard place. You remove the blockade, you lose. You invade, the world loses.
I like the way you think, but I respectfully disagree with "we are all probably FUBAR".
Nope. Only the "we" who live in the US or in countries that are US stooges are FUBAR (fucked up beyond all repair). The "all repair" part of that acronym is key, as countries other than the US and US stooges will go through a period of pain as the world re-orients itself to Persian Gulf energy and other resources disappearing into a black hole, but then they'll pull themselves out of totally fucked up status by rebalancing their relationships away from dependency on Persian Gulf inputs.
Russia, where I live, has plenty of oil, gas, food, fertilizer, and endless resources. It doesn't need anything from the Persian Gulf and will actually gain windfall profits, at least in the short and middle term. Heck, possibly even in the long term as well.
Russia also shares a long border with China, a really excellent neighbor to have to make sure you have access to absolutely everything manufactured on the planet (it's pretty much all made in China these days, no matter how it's rebranded and sold as some other country's production...) and to make sure you have a customer with an endless appetite for your oil, gas, food, fertilizer and endless resources.
China will take a hit as a result of the Europeans becoming significantly more impoverished. If the US and Israel escalate their attacks on Iran into total apocalypse for the Persian Gulf, that will likely trigger not just recessions but full on depressions in Europe, and that will cut out a lot of demand for China's manufactured goods. But then more than ever low cost production will be essential to grab share in whatever demand is left.
The US is more intertwined with its stooges than many Americans realize. They need them not for the trade that ties them (especially with Europe) but also as suckers to keep buying financialized US debt. When US stooges, including Gulf monarchies, become too poor to do that, the chickens start coming home to roost with the US's overextended debt. Without all that money printing the mammoth sums that have to go into subsidies to make fracking look more economic than it really is will be hard to scare up, and energy prices in the US will definitely go up to painful levels.
It will be hard on developing nations too, especially those who depended on fertilizer, aluminum or other inputs from Gulf states. But they can always redirect to Russia as a supplier of all that.
Russia will not escape unscathed. The Western idea of Russia being just a gas pump is wildly wrong, as energy exports are not a majority of Russia's export earnings. Other resources, like fertilizer, metals, industrial plastics, food (lots of food - Russia is an agricultural export superpower - never thought many years ago I'd ever be writing that...), and manufactured goods like car parts, consumer appliances and such make up the majority of Russia's export earnings. A lot of those are exported into the Chinese market, so if China goes through a rough patch, Russia's export earnings in those areas will also decline.
But in terms of existential impacts, what the world's other countries cannot do without are food, fertilizer to grow food, energy, and resources to keep whatever industries they do have running. Russia is either the world's largest exporter or in the top three or five in all those brackets, so sure, it may have to tighten its belt a bit but it's not facing an existential crisis.
I concur, and from what I understand China & Russia have prepared quite a bit for hard times. Are you familiar with the Deagle Report? It was released circa 2012. It basically showed a mass die off of people by year 2025. 70% of Western Nations were wiped out. They would revise it a year or two later to reflect 50% reduction.
It caused a stir in some internet circles and has been for years. Deagle is apparently a legitimate military intel company that keeps datasets on every country (how many planes, ships, etc). It is used by militaries as a reference guide.
It spurred a lot of theories. Like *Are they psychic? *Do they know about some depopulation plan?
However I read a comment once from a person stating they were familiar with how the depopulation plan came about. He basically said the West is too weak and will not do well in hard times. Talking about severe outbreaks of famine, disease, civil war, etc. It made perfect sense to me and I assumed the guy was legit.
Countries like China and Russia actually had little die off. It was anywhere from a 10% loss and some even reflected a small gain.
If Trump manages to destroy Iran, one way or another he will gain popularity as the winner. All nations love winners. The level of violence and crime is irrelevant.
Said like a true zealot. So far the "destroy Iran" threat has proved hollow. Losers of course are quickly recycled. The "it was Trump's fault" narrative is gaining traction. I'll be surprised if Trump is still Emperor by Christmas. Sorry for the bad tidings.
Even if destroying Iran blows up the World economy?
Don't think so Cotra.
For the fanatics in Washington and Israel that is a secondary question.
Yes,but the fanatics in Washington are not a majority.
Granted you're correct about Israel.
The majority in Washington would rather do that then accept defeat.
A defeat of the Empire is something unthinkable.
How about learning to think, in that case?
I mean, could be an alternative, especially for the working man in the US?
But you might be right, a country that has a president that wears a Chinese hat with the letters USA on it, probably to remember of which country he is supposed to be the president of, is not anything close to an empire anymore,
It's a mega corrupt, criminal and retarded entity, posing as a country.
He can't destroy Iran, a country of 93 million people with a huge geographical expanse... Chip
Of course it can. Thy can starve the population. They can even kill Iranian population. Anglo Saxons and Jew know no limits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOhfU9sCmYA
Iran tanker containing 2 mil barrels of Chinese oil was seized. China or Iran can do nothing.
Why can't Israel nuke Iran? I mean they are already committing genocide and their state was not invaded by the UN as a result.
How far do we think Iran will take their position before a nuke is incoming? Everyone who thinks Iran has all the cards, well they lack one important card.
If Israel nukes Iran, the USA will have to get involved. It will most certainly lead to Iran working to get a bomb fast so that also helps Israel keep the USA on station blasting Iran. It can start with tactical nukes along the straight and if Iran does not surrender start nuking cities.
Nuke use will also re-establish fear of the Empire.
You last sentence is very important. If only for that the choice of using the Bomb would be very attractive for the Empire.
Nuclear weapons have been greatly overrated largely because they make perfect the propaganda foil of the ultimate bad thing we must not allow to happen (and therefore justify doing whatever we want to do).
Fallout is a problem, but as seen at Chernobyl, life can survive and thrive even after a major contamination event. Over 2,000 nuclear weapons have been tested above ground since 1944. Nuclear winter did not occur, the world is still here.
A nuclear strike on a city is nothing but genocide. There will be many survivors but the world will never forget.
A nuclear strike on Iran would not defeat the Iranian military, because most of their installations are deep underground beyond the penetration depth of even the largest nuclear weapons. It would at most kill a large minority of the people in a few of its largest cities.
Iran can retaliate by hitting Dimona, causing a nuclear contamination event, and ultimately, if they really wanted revenge, I think they have some miniature ICBM's that can reach Washington, DC. If they hit Calvert Cliff's nuclear plant with a conventional ICBM on a day when the wind is blowing in the right direction, it would engulf DC in a radioactive cloud.
In short, a nuclear strike will not accomplish the goal of winning or ending the Iran War.
I can tell you this; I’ll never be back.
Nah.. Bush won the Iraq war and lost in 92.
Domestic concerns, like inflation and high energy prices are higher concerns for voters.
You can read here what the West really likes and how they do it.
https://johnhelmer.net/the-murder-of-the-iris-dena-first-public-testimony-by-the-surviving-captain-and-first-officer/
THE MURDER OF THE IRIS DENA – FIRST PUBLIC TESTIMONY BY THE SURVIVING CAPTAIN AND FIRST OFFICER
. In the customary laws of naval warfare, if the attacking captain can verify that the target crew is readying to abandon ship, and is not preparing counter-fire, it is unlawful for him to fire to kill. Futch also knew the Indian Navy had guaranteed that the Dena was not carrying anti-submarine torpedoes.
To know how and if he can get out of it you need to be patient, wait until he is imprisoned after being deposed, losing the mid-term.
Who new 5D chess was really tiddlywinks.
What else should one expect of a serial insolvent.
You hit the nail on the head first this
Somalia has announced a ban on all Israeli ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
https://war-tracker.com/share/511716?w=24h&media=1&video=1&referrer=mk_b011234d2101465d913624456f7ba6e3
then the very next day.
UKMTO reported that two small armed vessels approached a cargo ship and fired warning shots near the Somali coast, one day after Somalia announced a ban on Israeli-linked ships.
https://war-tracker.com/share/513549?w=24h&media=1&video=1&referrer=mk_f5dd16fd37bb4537a0d426fceb4ff2a5
Generally speaking, I've found that whatever Trump says, expect the opposite. When he said he "expected to be bombing Iran", that made me breathe a sigh of relief that the ceasefire was going to be extended
The obvious mutual-blockade dropping should've been done, but wasn't done.
The question now is what breaks first. To date, we have not seen major economic data in the US since the start of the war. March numbers didn't tell much, no time for the effect to hit. Europe has already shown a jump in inflation, faster than i expected. Now we need the US.
Trump sees things we don't; his cabinet has real time access to economic numbers. And to me the evidence is very clear that a recession is on the way, and major inflation is absolutely certain.
The Gulf countries are making the mistake of the ages, a truly epic strategic blunder, by handing over their foreign policy to the US and letting them run wild with it.
It seems the UAE may be the only one 100% on board with the US plan. I guess that's why they have been hit so hard.
Their ministers send out mixed messages. One says US and Israeli cooperation will double down. The next says "we dont need US bases anymore, we demonstrated we can defend ourselves, we just want to buy your stuff" (which is a clever way to acquiesce to iranian demands). One thing is for sure, if your strategy is to align with Trump then your desired outcome better be whatever is best for him. Else youre out of your mind
Totally. The status quo of Feb seems like an age ago. Things will really change and tough decisions are required in US allies capitals.
I agree. The official UAE line remains very much anti-mollah but the reality is that not having peace is an existential threat for the Emirates. If a solution cannot be found within the next 2-3 months, my (educated) guess is that foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving. And foreigners make up 90% of the population...
Regime change in Iran having failed, the UAE need to initiate some form of dialogue with the existing regime - as Saudi Arabia did last year.
There are plenty of intelligent people in the UAE government - which attracts many among the best and brightest (unlike, alas, what now seems to be the norm in the West). I hope they will reassess their foreign policy and start focusing on the upside potential of peace with Iran - even if their current priority is to rethink security arrangements based on the painful experience of the past couple of months.
A proper economic zone in the Gulf would be ~200mn ppl blessed with every conceivable resource. This to me is such an obvious end-state and a tragedy that it isn't being pursued. The Gulf states are very much a "empire of one" to the extent that even within their countries they favor one region over the other - Saudi favoring "Central" region, UAE favoring Abu Dhabi, etc.
regarding a "proper economic zone", i'd say, will not happen in 1000 years. remember, Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 due to lack of cooperation to gauge oil prices. Kuwait wanted to damage iraq economically by oil over production (while it would've been profitable for both sides to reach an economically beneficial solution for example). just few years back, GCC countries besieged Qatar (itself a member of GCC ) for about 4 years, due to dispute over its sponsored media coverage of the affairs of other gulf states. that doesn't even start to cover the deeply rooted hatred between the "arab" side of the gulf, and the "Persian" side all way back to early days of Islamic empire. if there is any kind of cooperation between arabs and Iranians, Iran will dominate the region due to its rich culture, ingenuity and history compared to the gulf. the Arab gulf would rather demolish the temple than to let that happen
Iran is a complicated and vast place. Im no fan or friend of the irgc and the mullahs but the country is so much more than that. There is some truth to the regime change argument. But only some. You're right about the rest of the gulf. They are politically still very immature, tribal, and lack vision that extends beyond their own borders
Iraq invaded Kuwait with tacit consent from the United States (and Donald Rumsfeld… Yes, that Donald Rumsfeld) who then double crossed them, because th US and Kuwait were cross-drilling under the Kuwait/Iraq border stealing oil… Very on-brand to be sure.
Nothing the U.S. has said about foreign policy for the last 80 years is true, all they do is lie 24/7.
Just like Ukraine was a victim, so too was Kuwait (and the fake babies in those fake stolen incubators) an Iraq WMD’s. The U.S. and their European doormats excel in lies, deceit, and stealing our money! Time to string these fuqs up like the Road to Meereen in Game of Thrones! STRING THEM ALL UP!
the gulf states have until summer to wrap up the situation (at the latest). if it's not resolved by then, the damage will be permanent. summer months is usually vacation season when expats travel back to their home countries anyway, so the current situation forced a lot to make it earlier and extended. so far, a lot of expats working remotely, using up their vacations ...etc trying to see how it plays out to avoid making a decision of moving entirely out of the region. also, a lot didnt have a chance to sell their properties ...etc. UAE is put on hold for the time being, it will take a lot of time to restore its reputation. it's currently sustained by media blockade, arresting people, and threatening to fire anyone (not rich enough) if they decided to take extended leave due to situation. they are really desperate to convey a message of "everything is normal, fantastic", which means, according to region tradition, it's collapsing faster than imagined.
They don’t have that long… When the heat in the Gulf states rise late spring, early summer, without power these countries become uninhabitable without air conditioning, which means power.
These posers are on notice, and short time. Good riddance to these degenerate fuqs!
"If a solution cannot be found within the next 2-3 months, my (educated) guess is that foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving."
Hell. If hostilities start up again, Iran can take out the electric grid with a few key strikes, making the Gulf States uninhabitable in the desert heat. There's no reason not to declare neutrality and force the US out of the Gulf. The Us isn't protecting anyone; quite the contrary.
They are all hostage, as we see with Iraq and their choice of PM. We are dealing with a mafioso protection racket.
"foreign companies will start to reassess their plans with many scaling down or leaving." Some already damaged or destroyed. I believe this is already happening. UAE is not likely to recover to its former glory... Chip
UAE back to Oman, Kuwait back to greater Iran.
They don't have a choice. Look at where they are geographically. The UAE will collapse as a result of this war especially if it continues in any meaningful, or even smoldering, fashion... Chip
UAE is a fairly advanced country. They built four nuclear power plants, one after the other. 5+ GW. And get this: the person who got the honor of bringing up the first one to criticality was a woman engineer. After something like that you no longer need a resume!
There are no Gulf countries. They are western colonies, with no agency. It is absurd to suggest they have foreign policies.
I don't share the triumphalist gloating at all.
>The question now is what breaks first. To date, we have not seen major economic data in the US since the start of the war.
So far there has been close to zero real cost imposed on the US elites. Which is all that matters.
Trump is alive. Hegseth is alive. Vance is alive. Rubio is alive. Bibi alive (despite the rumors from early in the war), and all his genocidal cabinet members are unharmed too. No US general has been taken out either. And no member of the oligarchic business elites who really run things.
So Iran has completely failed to impose deterrence when it comes to threatening the physical security of the respective elites of the two countries. The US has total advantage here.
Then there is the copium of the "economy". But what people don't understand is that whenever there is a major economic crisis in the US, it is not the elites that are hurt, it is the common people. Invariably the crisis is used to engineer yet another upwards wealth redistribution. It was like that in 2008, it was like that with COVID. "Inflation" does not scare the US elites, they don't feel it in any way. And the US will be least affected anyway, the effects will be primarily on Europe and Asia.
Thus Iran isn't making the people who matter in the US hurt all that much, or at all, on the economic front either.
Finally, a lot of the Zionist billionaires people are fanatics who don't actually care primarily about money, if they did, they would not be spending so much on funding Israel. Those people will only stop what they are doing if they are physically eliminated.
But Iran has not done any of that so far, and it has had close to two months to get it organized. Or many years really, it should have had well laid in place plans for doing it long, long ago. It is not that hard -- Hezbollah is very good with ATGMs and drones, the southern US border hardly exists, you can smuggle anything. And not only through there -- shipping containers are not inspected one by one. So what are they waiting for?
One more thing to add -- if you want to really destabilize the internal situation in the US, you do that once again precisely by going after elites.
Imagine what happens if ATGMs and drones start flying from concealed positions in the forests in the hills above SV into the mansions on those hills and the likes of Larry Ellison living in Los Altos and Woodside get the same treatment the IDF has been dishing out to Resistance leaders in Lebanon, and the same thing also starts to happen in the equivalent areas around NYC and DC.
There are ways to arrange that that are not at all difficult for a competent state actor to pull off, and to not just arrange for a few demonstrative strikes, but to sustain it. US internal security is a complete joke.
So what happens once a few high-profile hits are scored and the attacks continue is that the US elites will totally freak out in a way that makes the post-9/11 period look tame, and living in the US will become a total nightmare of oppressive surveillance and security overreach, to such an extent that there may well finally be a real push back from the population.
Combine that with oil prices at $150-200 and we are getting somehwere. But just high oil prices alone won't do much.
It absolutely must not be allowed.
It is done for two reasons:
1) to take out the Northern Fleet from point blank range
2) to enable large-scale conventional ground operations into northwestern Russia from Finland, by taking away Russia's option to just erase Finland from the map. What I have been warning for a long time
Russia cannot invade, it will be just as bad as in Ukraine, Finland is, you can be sure about that, being pumped with drones and ATGMs, and anything you can think of.
The only winning move here is to preemptively wipe it out and then move in with ground forces, before they have placed any nukes in there. And that has to happen now. There is no time to waste.
In Iran's own words, they could not compete militarily, and they pursued asymmetric responses. But they didn't go far enough, not nearly.
I agree that their inability to target or assassinate anyone (they lost their head of state ffs), nor inflict a high profile cost (sinking a vessel for example), nor create issues in the western hemisphere, all points to a net-loss position. Their whole strategy appears to rest on 1) We can keep the Hormuz closed and hope that hurts you more/faster than it hurts us and 2) We have a strong chin and can take your best shots and still stay alive, and their whole "strategic defeat" involves a recession on the world, which given enough time will result in even those sympathetic to them now turning against them
No one will blame Iran when everyone knows who started this thing for real.
To spin this thing around and blame the victim might work with retarded and illiterate US-people, the rest of the world will laugh about the lies and fabrications of reality the US uses because there is nothing else left.
Iran has the right to defend itself and every human with two brain cells that function in a humanitarian way will support Iran against the murderers, child f*ckers and corrupt, criminal scum that thinks of themself as exceptional.
That is literally what happened in 1988, with UN resolution 598 - the "poison chalice"
You might not believe this, but it is actually possible to comment without insults. You should try it sometime.
Oh with pleasure - just since when has stating facts become insults?
And who is feeling insulted?
Well put, Frank.
Let me paint a scenario for you.
You are sitting at a bar when a big, aggressive biker walks into the bar with a buddy. They walk up to a guy minding his own business at a table in the corner of the bar and the biker's buddy slaps the innocent guy in the face. The big biker then lands a punch right in the mouth before the innocent guy can even fight back.
The innocent guy proceeds to pull out a can of mace and spray it at the two guys attacking him. The mace quickly spreads around the confined space of the bar. Unfortunately for the rest of the patrons at the bar, the exits are blocked. Meanwhile the big guy has his buddy slip on some gas masks, and continue swinging at their victim, who keeps spraying them, while other patrons in the bar lie on ground writhing, trying to breathe.
Let's break this scenario down:
1. Are the biker and his buddy ultimately responsible for this? Yes.
2. Is the 'innocent guy' to blame for this fight? No.
3. Is the use of mace hurting the biker and his buddy? No.
4. Is it hurting other innocent bar patrons? Yes.
Let's give the innocent guy some leeway. In the first few minutes of the fracas he might have believed he could put down the biker and his buddy with the mace. But past that point it should be apparent that he is not achieving that and instead hurting innocent people.
At this point, if you were on the floor struggling to breathe, would you?
a) be shouting your support to the guy spraying the mace, knowing that this is achieving nothing of strategic value except suffocating you
b) yelling at him to stop, and starting to hope that the the biker and his buddy kick the macer's ass and stop him spraying mace?
I find it astonishing how little moral nuance some people are capable of. I would previously have thought that this level of cognitive impairment would preclude being able to read or write, but it appears I was wrong.
The analogy fails here though, because the way you are describing it the other people in the bar are not actively helping the aggressor, while in the case of Iran they are.
What do you mean they are helping the aggressor? Do you mean Iran (the original victim) is actively helping the biker and his buddy with their response?
Are you serious? But thanks for proving my point, one needs such a twisted mindset to blame the victim. And of course in your retarded story no one comes to the conclusion to help the innocent guy and take the attackers out with a collective go at them. Being fat and brutal is never securing a win. In my story, they're at least two other massive guys, one named China and the other Russia who won't let the innocent man fight alone. Do you think the aggressive biker won't shit his pants suddenly after realizing he miscalculated terribly?
Did you even read what I said? Lol. I am not blaming the victim.
A victim can pivot into a role of a perpetrator, and doing so does not absolve the original perpetrator.
You are genuinely, profoundly, retarded.
Surprised that a different option wasn't presented. If I were one of the crowd when the thugs put on the gas masks, before I started being choked by the mace I'd have hit the bigger one with a chair before doing the same to the other, expecting other innocents like myself would join me in an attack to subdue the villains of the piece. Perhaps my expectations are too high, but someone has to take action in situations of this type, improbable though this one may be as an example.
I've seen enough bar fights and mob situations to know that Good Samaritans are few and far between.
How would you like semi-subsistent villagers in Malawi to intervene? Because the are the ones who are going to starve when the price of maize goes up.
You conveniently left out option c): the other patrons of the bar yelling at the bikers to GTFO. Gee, in such a carefully written analogy, how is it you missed the most obvious and correct answer?
Besides, your analogy is also flawed from the standpoint of who the "innocent" people are. These Gulf Monarchies that allow the US to build bases there from which to attack Iran, or that let "Israeli" jets overfly their airspace to attack Iran, are not analogous to "innocent" people. If anything they are the "bikers'" accomplices or employees of the biker gang of which the two guys in your scenario are members, and which owns the bar in question and/or has blackmail material on every single patron in the place.
Yelling is of course very effective in bar fights and most bullies will stop bullying a victim as soon as someone yells at them. If you went outside occasionally you would presumably know this.
"Blame victim" is the name of the game on this comments section.
I think the elites will hurt as the AI bubble is very energy dependent. Increased losses could bust the bubble. OpenAI shutdown Sora, their video generation service, an acknowledgement that this service was never going to be profitable, and possibly a preemptive move to rectify their increasing losses.
If the bubble does burst, expect an attempt to get a GFC type bailout, but this time, it might not work.
I think those sympathetic to them are behind them all the way - because they are next. You didn't mention Israel - I agree with you that they didn't do enough in the first round to destroy it, so hopefully when it kicks off again, they finish the job and leave it looking like Gaza. Also hoping they take out a couple of carriers. In short, I doubt they'll lose any friends.
I agree with your point about "elites" GM - and that goes for all those in the West.
All this violence, misery and so on and they remain in the clouds, eating the best food, flying on private jets, sending their children to the best schools and so on. They appear to be looking down from above without any consequences.
This will continue until they are hit and hit hard.
When I try tell people this they think I am on the side of the USA and Israel. But it is obvious that closing the strait of Hormuz does not hurt the US elites at all.
And people misunderstand how wealthy the US is - Johnny American may have to have 400 chicken nuggets for dinner instead of 500 and may have to walk to his next door neighbor's house for a barbecue instead of driving. He won't like it, but it's not causing any actual harm. Instead Iran is punishing the peasants of the poorest nations in the world for whom food inflation and economic contraction makes a concrete difference to whether or not they can feed themselves.
Iran can cause real harm in the region to the US and its allies by targeting fuel infrastructure and desalination plants, but it's not doing that. Why? Because it will be aware that US has actual nuclear weapons and Trump is just waiting for an excuse to use them. The Iran regime surviving that is wishful thinking, if the Imperial Japanese lacked the resolve to continue fighting after being nuked, I doubt Iran will continue fighting after a nuclear attack.
The Japanese lacked the resolve to continue fighting BEFORE being nuked. The bombs changed nothing.
As I have been saying for a long time, Iran's only useful move here is to unveil ICBMs and thermonuclear warheads for them, by firing and detonating one close to the Florida coast, or perhaps even somewhere in the desert in Nevada.
Once they do that, the US will back off.
Until they do it, the US will keep attacking them.
Just as the saying goes, "Knowing the first, not knowing the second," the truth is that the trigger for Japan's decision to surrender was not the two U.S. atomic bombs (August 7 and 9), but rather an unconditional surrender (under U.S. protection) resulting from the decision of the Imperial Palace Conference on August 14, driven by a sense of crisis stemming from the Soviet Red Army's invasion of Manchuria, North Korea, Sakhalin, and the Northern Islands. The fact that the Japanese government refuses to disclose the minutes of the surrender conference is the cause that has allowed for the distortion of history by the United States.
At the rate we are going we're going to get real-world confirmation of how effective nuclear weapons are at generating surrender. Presumably someone in the US chain of command is aware of the fact that an air bombing campaign has never achieved this, which doesn't leave them with many options. Perhaps we should be thankful that they're first trying to suffocate the Iranian economy,
They've *been* suffocating the Iranian economy for decades, and on steroids since Trumpstein's first term. That's why the Iranians became self-sufficient (with some minor, mostly unsolicited, help from Russia and China) in their weapons manufacturing ability and certain sectors of their economy.
Regardless, as has been pointed out to you, the Japanese surrender had virtually nothing (if anything at all) to do with the atomic bombs, which themselves are equivalent to shorter versions of massive air bombing campaigns (see: firebombing of Tokyo or Dresden). And as you noted, air bombing campaigns alone do not evoke surrenders. If the US or Isntreal decide to use nukes on Iran, the Iranians won't surrender either. And it will invite some serious knock-on effects including retaliatory military attacks and probably a larger regional war. Maybe even global.
Iran has said they have some cards to play, the likes of which have not been seen yet.
Iran isn't punishing anyone. The bullies who took over the bar in your analogy are. The desalinization plants and oilfields being targeted by Iran (when they aren't being targeted by Israeli false flags) are moneymakers for the elites in the Gulf Monarchy and other Arab oil producing states. They are the ones punishing their own people by allowing the US to build bases there thus making their citizens indirect targets when the US uses their land and airspace (and people as employees) to conduct attacks on Iran. And when the bullies stop targeting Iranian infrastructure to hurt the ~90M innocent people in Iran, the Iranians will stop "spraying the mace."
As for more indirect offshoot effects on countries like Sri Lanka and Australia, maybe they too should re-evaluate their relationships with Uncle Scam and his biker buddy Isntreal.
Ah, just what the world needs, another dose of GM's Patented Universal Cure-All (TM), just assassinate everyone and foment civil war (and if that does not work nuke them).
"We'll drink a drink a drink
To Lily the Pink the Pink the Pink
The saviour of the human race
For she invented medicinal compound
Most efficacious in every case."
The only problem is this is EXACTLY the same mindset as the people you claim should be eliminated, ergo.......... should you start with yourself?
They can't touch us here in the JUSA. But they have destroyed a half dozen or more US bases in the region. The JUSA was NOT expecting that. If Iran was losing as bad as you say, they would be at the negotiation table now. Fact is, they punched the bully in the nose and the bully is not sure what to do next... Chip
Or they smuggle a nuke into Baltimore stadium when the presidents and his staff is there to try and provoke a war between the US and Russia! Or they release canisters of airborne ebola at a convention center. Or they crash a plane into the Capitol and take out everyone but one guy who then becomes president and cleans house. Or they try to crash the stock market. Unfortunately for the bad guys the protagonists are unnaturally competent while for them Murphys law is very much real so the plot foils or fizzles. The moral of the story is that even if north Korea, Iran, china, Russia, and various terrorist groups seem weak, thats what makes them desperate enough to do a bolt out of the blue attack the US homeland thanks to some well characterized evil masterminds, so you should never let your guard down or cut defense spending
Do you really think his administration knows the country's economic situation? That they have the slightest competence or qualification for it? Don't confuse the people serving their lords with the reverse.
Yes, I do think they know. I know its really tempting to paint them as a bunch of incompetent fools, but they are not. Duplicituos, perfidious, vile, deceitful, arrogant, obnoxious - yes. But not incompetent.
Yes, they ARE incompetent... Chip
I spent over 30 years in the US military and federal government, ask me how I know of this incompetence... Chip
Incompetent people do not score so many strategic wins within such a short time span by chance
"Trump sees things we don't..." I seriously doubt it... Chip
The man who ran his casinos into the ground and declared bankruptcy too many times to count failed upwards all the way to the presidency, on nothing but pure BS. Says a lot about American voters by the way. And now he's about to run the country into the ground as he did with his businesses. At some point BS has to meet reality, and reality always wins. His last failed business is the USA. And here's the kicker: his delusional narcissistic mindset means he can't confront his own shortcomings, he has to keep doubling down on the BS to avoid his worst nightmare, that maybe he really is a failure. I hope that his doubling down is limited to his daily bluster and bloviations, and that the military does not give this man-child the keys to the nuclear codes.
That's a good point.
I think we should think more about the Palantir Manifesto than Trumps tantrums.
The Skynet is coming…
Checkmate Iran…
Perhaps, it hard to see any good moves for the US. If the Chinese send escorts for their tankers it's game over for the blockade.
They already have 8 Ships in the area .. tells you all you need
The US just boarded a vessel that services the China-Iran route, despite the Chinese defence minister's warning not to interfere with trade. I would love to see China escort their ships, but they are quiet.
=)))))))))))))))
>Chinese send escorts for their tankers
only wars chinese won were civil wars.
every outsider that wanted to occupy them did lol, they'll fold like a wet napkin in 2 weeks like they always did.
they're nothing but a paper tiger, a nomenklatura that force 1 billion ppl to labour for the west.
Did you forget to take your meds?
do you think childish insults can replace arguments?
With their economy, manufacturing capacity, high tech stuff, $400 Billion defense budget (only second to the USA), 2 million strong military ("undergoing extensive modernization, focusing on enhancing its naval and air capabilities, as well as expanding its nuclear arsenal.) - I don't think I would consider China a "paper tiger". The last time they were occupied was by Japan 1939-1945. The last time there was a civil war was 1945-1949. I suspect that a lot has changed since then.
for sure they are on par-ish with the west technology/equipment wise, i don't dispute this.
but culturally speaking i just don't think they have what is needed; maybe i'm mistaking, maybe i'm racist but i just don't think pla can show vs the west/nato.
wars are won not only by equipment.
tho i hope this will remain an hypothetical discussion :)
I don't think they have the capacity to take the fight to the west, but I think they would do well defending mainland China from attack.
yup, that's my impression too.
hope to god won't find out :)
le: thing is mainland will be hit with standoff weapons while the economy will be chocked by blockades; ultimately, like the japanese in ww2, they will need to try to break the blockade and that means loosing home advantage.
also they have a massive demographic problem.
mass mobilization would be a catastrophe for them.
this is mostly ignored in this discussions but look at russia which is in a somewhat better situation but still has major economic problems due to not enough labour force.
i think this is one of the reasons china invests massive in automation and robots but tbh what i saw is mostly copying the west for now.
A verdade está com Irã
Uma dúvida: alguém ver a viabilidade do
Irã anexar o Iraque? Seria isso possível e assim o império persa retornar.
É possível, também Kuwait
Com certeza kuwait iria junto. Tá na hora dos persas voltarem a sua grandeza!
USIsreal's second act in their latest perfidious war of aggression is degenerating into farce. What else could it have been, led by a completely compromised POTUS with a preexisting personality disorder complicated by frontotemporal dementia? Still, the recent piracy of a fully loaded, China bound, Very Large Crude Carrier is yet another escalation. Despite the last minute 'ceasefire' extension, it is hard to see anything but escalation on the horizon.
If China doesn't act, the Chinese defence minister will look toothless. The US has called his bluff.
Do you really think the Chinese care?
Yes, of course they care. Xi has come out and expressed the damage being done to the global economy by having the strait closed. Further, Iran is integral to their plans for BRICS and the east-west economic corridor. So there is that... Chip
I meant they don't care if they look toothless. War isn't their gig. They put their wealth onto development, not bombs and blockades.
China is already acting. Chinese Navy ships are already sailing towards the conflict zone - and that is just what we can see on the surface.
It is obvious USA cannot lob missiles non stop anymore, otherwise they would be doing it and not negotiate.
When you frame "the other" as murderous lunatics, then you do not negotiate with people like that, right? New Nazis, Hitler and whatnot. Cliche, repetitive American dehumanizing lingo.
Precisely what has been done to Russia/Putin for the past decade plus... Chip
To every "evildoer".
Various "Axes of Evil" and other cartoonish crap, because of low literacy levels
https://x.com/pawelwargan/status/2046618290504474749
The Golden Golem's Domino Doctrine just bumped up against an Ancient Civilization too proud and strong to fall.
Peace is the Prize of the Wise,
Victory the Vice of the Vain.
>Ancient Civilization
that is long gone, smothered by islam through arabs and turks.
there isn't any kind of civilization there now, just primitive islamic tribes occupying some territory in the name of their retarded god and trying to impose this shit on their neighbors too.
Keep you're head in the sand as your complete ignorance about the country of Iran and the Persian people is being demonstrated in spades right now... Chip
they are executing 8 women for their opinions as we speak, go live there if they are so great =)))
What a retarded comment. ESAD.
so iran doesn't do that, is all western propaganda?
Well you want to think so. They aren't executing women. Where on earth do you get your news from? Honestly the lies you idiots tell about Iran is insane. Your envy of other civilisations drives your rage.
>envy of other civilisations
the what now?
is anything in iran that someone beside a barefoot goat herder could envy?
what is there to envy?
religious police? paramilitary religious forces? almost 3 digits inflation? lack of water?
don't fool yourself, iran is much more like any of the stans than it's persian heritage.
It is fascinating and intriguing that someone like you is reading this. Please take a look at the video by Canadian lawyer Dimitri Lascaris, who covered the situation in Iran two weeks ago.
I can only surmise that you're ignorant as well as uneducated 🤔 if, as is entirely possible, you don't know the history of the Middle East (which is quite possible seeing westerners (Americans specifically) know little about other areas) conversation is likely to be difficult to sustain.
I'd say take a crash course in Iranian history, but I don't believe even that minimal effort can be sustained by you. Ignorance of a 7000 yr old civilisation is par for the course with idiots who wear their stupidity like a flag.
Iran is in fact a nation of scientists and engineers. Modern Europeans, on the other hand, are a collection of barely sentient ape creatures, which is why Iran is winning and Europeans are losing.
"You can win Jesse, you can win!!"....1984.
Simp's "Garden of Knowledge" is always good for a laugh ;)
Iran will soon have a MAJOR problem to contend with. If they cannot sell their oil, they cannot empty their storage, and they will be forced to shut in production. THAT will lead to destruction of their oil fields. Coupled with the significant loss of revenue that bribes, er, pays the ruling guards, things could get very messy indeed. People think Trump has no cards to play, but this card is already in play.
I think we have seen that Iranians are not as transactional as Trump expected them to be. Inadvertent projection, I would say. ;)
So far US is boarding civilian vessels without any escort or armed green men on their decks. Perfect job for courageous marines.
Leaving aside that total blockade is probably impossible, especially for US that far away from home.
Iran has survived a long US backed war with Iraq and 47 years of sanctions. The resilience of the Iranian people through hard times cannot be doubted.
sanctions, not blockade.
Plus an 8 year war with Iraq as a JUSA supported proxy... Chip
Cheryl referred to that - "Iran has survived a long US backed war with Iraq."
" but this card is already in play" Only it the Dotard's pickled mind, and in those of his deluded fanboys.
Your feeling are “trumped” by oilfield mechanics. It’s the same everywhere, in every field. Shutting in conventional production leads to fields getting ruined.
IIran told what the next stepp would be, closing the red see, and also destroy all pipelines which lead to the red see, with that absolut 0% percent of oil from whol area will be exportet, means the remaining 30% of capacity of export there will be stopped then. about bombing the hell out of the US in the area we do not need to talk further, menas also attacking all US Shipps... so sure their export will be ruined, but also the whole thing for the whole world too...
The power that will open the straights, deliver that oil, and the enormous profits that it represents, out of Iran and to the markets, is the distributed mind called "Global Capitalism".
That power is much greater than Donald Trump, The White House and the US Navy.
The Spice must flow, and it will flow. If the Washington / Tel Aviv axis could have installed a Tehran regime to their liking then it would have been much better for them, but they couldn't.
The Spice will flow regardless and a reasonable spice tax / levy / tariff will go to Tehran and therefore a certain $ % will go on to the fedayeen.
Exactly, the only question remaining: Is Trump Emperor Corrino or the Fat Barron?
DJT is 'The Beast Rabban', not nearly smart as the fat Barron. The Emperor is Netanyahu.
I think you're onto something.
Surely Netanyahu is a Tleilaxu ghola.
The Bene Gesserit
Keep fantasizing and soothing yourself to a delirious comatose sleep!
"THAT will lead to destruction of their oil fields."
Shutdowns are coordinated procedures. In no way shape or form does it lead to the destruction of oil fields.
Yah, that guy is off his rocker... Iran has been loading a lot of ships from Kharg all day, every day. Western MSM actually made a note of that.. and then quickly buried that as it was too embarassing for Trump.
Looks like it is straight from Bessent's mouth
https://t.me/vicktop55/43757
;)
what about the damage to other gulf countries like kuwait, iraq, and bahrain which cannot export their oil and have no way to store it? iraq already shut down production after 1st week of war. it's the same game for everyone involved. after the war ends, who do you think will redevelop these oil fields? US/EU companies or Chinese and Russian companies , giving them even more leverage in the region? trump war on iran was a dump stupid idea no matter which way you look at it.
So?
You repeat what "everyone" has known since Hormuz was closed.
The consequences to the rest of the world are just now beginning to be felt.
Iran don't care.
[Edit: let’s say Iran has other priorities. It isn’t as if they want the world to starve. Iran finds itself between a rock and a hard place. I choose to support Iran. I regret the suffering that many will feel around the world. I don’t have a solution.]
I care, but if the result is the removal of the End-State (parasitic) Capitalists from control of the world, it seems like a price I'm willing to pay. Of course, being an American, I have no idea what that cost might be. I only know I'm tired of being told how the rest of the world wants to kill me when ICE is deployed across the continent. ICE represents the present danger. The Lion vs the chipmunk. (a strained metaphor?)
Yes. Iran is in fact defeated in that way, Trump is not so stupid at all.
EU must embrace for millions of refugees.
nope.
maybe those with superior education.
the rest can go to their allies, russ/turkey/etc.
They all dream about EU. They want social benefits they want blond hair women just like the other migrants from Asia and Africa.
they can dream until are blue in the face.
also i doubt iran's infrastructure will be destroyed.
the blockade will continue along with decapitation strikes until a amenable faction will get in power.
i call it baynesian bombing.
The US is capable to harm Iran just buy continuing the blockade.
The US consumers wont be harmed so much in that way.
All other actors are incapable or weak.
yup.
is the same method british empire used, gunboat diplomacy.
institute a blockade and play the factions against each other until the economic hardship and internal strife break the enemy.
iranians are very arrogant and brought this shit unto them.
they could have pursued the nuke in secret but they are too arrogant for that and in their stupidity they really thought they can blackmail the whole world with that strait.
0 knowledge of history, 0 understanding of world economy.
just a bunch of deluded goat fuckers and their death cult.
good riddance.
Didn't most Iranian refugees go to the USA when the Shah fell?
If the Iranians are sending oil to China, Japan, South Korea and may be even India, I don't think a US blockade is realistic.
Maybe the national Svengalis want the folliwing... US munitions situation to become a sheer crisis, Iran to effectively autonomously rearm, more salvoa back and forth, and then the US with backs to the wall from ammo shortages sets off nukes to even things out? Wouldn't put it past them
Current JCS Chairman, General Dan Caine, reportedly (according to Larry C. Johnson, CIA, ret) was asked by Trump for the nuclear codes on April 3rd and General Caine refused.
Sound highly unlikely. Gen Caine is still there.
Maybe the JCS Chairman has a copy of the DJT's pdf file? The rest of Johnson's story is that after throwing a tantrum, DJT was escorted out of the situation room so the adults could formulate a plan to rescue the downed F-15 crew.
Sounds plausible
"While I still do not have any independent confirmation that there was a tussle between Trump and Caine over the potential use of nuclear weapons in Iran, General Caine reportedly is increasingly pushing back on Trump’s desire to expand the war in hopes of securing a cheap, easy victory."
From his blog.
https://sonar21.com/trump-does-taco-tuesday-but-still-sabotages-exit-ramp-jcpoa-2/
That sounds much more believable but Larry Johnson isn't someone I would put much trust in personally. My guess is the nuclear codes story was a scare tactic dutifully ignored by the Iranians.
At least LJ has some confirmation bias. Always looking for the biggest numbers. The same with Douglas Mc Gregor and Scott Ritter.
True, they must share something. All useful sources but hardly reliable in a crisis. LJ lost me when he was berating his sister for disbelieving 9/11 was an Al Qaeda job. Obviously running cover. How could any impartial analyst believe that!
Yeah, isn't it funny how our "most reliable" sources all seem to have once been Fox contributors?
"Something is happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me, I got to beware
Its time we stop, children
what's that sound
everybody look what's goin' down"
I miss that music.
I believe Trump asked Caine about the USE of nuke, NOT for codes. And I think Caine frowned of the use of nukes. That is more likely what happened. Trump has the codes already as the National Command Authority. But there is a chain of events that has to happen to make those codes useful... Chip
A plausible development also that it is possible for the Chinese to get involved in convoys for Iranian destined ships.
That would make things very interesting.
Personally, I don’t think this is over. It will start again.
Chinese ships escorting oil tankers bound for Japan and South Korea through an American blockade would be.....something.
Ignore the proverbial monkey. At this point, the Twitter belches seem to be almost exclusively in the service of market manipulation.
What are the organ grinders saying/doing?
Iran does not have to attack US boats to break its siege. It can act asymmetrically, and it will, and then pass the baton back to the US.
This 'war' could still be mostly as per a plan by the US to force oil & gas buyers to buy from the US to support their economy & dollar than about actually defeating Iran.
The USA doesn’t have enough to sell, besides, it will put upward pressure on the price of oil&gas that will also affect their own population
LPG :-(
Don't have enough of that either. And we are STILL building plants here in South Texas, including hundreds of miles of pipeline that are not yet in the ground, for LNG production. The ports and trains for the later are still under construction, moving like crazy, but still will not be online for several years... Chip
Whatever this "war" was intended, they have failed worst than miserably. Look at all the destruction that Iran has left against the US military and Israel in its wake.
We would need to produce like 2-3x more than we normally do to make up the shortfall. We can maybe get up to 6 mbpd of crude, we're currently around 4-5. The Gulf was seeing volumes of 10+. We can't make it up, and even if we could in some peter pan world, the entire planet doesn't have enough VLCC/LCCs to actually transport it anywhere.
The US produces about 13-14 mbpd. The US consumes about 20 mbpd. There is no way the US can provide oil to others without starving themselves. We make up our shortfalls from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and the ME... Chip
Actually, not quite correct. We produce primarily light 'sweet' oil, which we then export out to overseas refineries. We import a lot of heavier 'sour' oil, which we refine and then utilize or ship back out. Also very dependent on the state you're in. I'm not an expert on this at all, mostly a very basic surface level understanding, but the overall picture is pretty complicated. The apples to apples comparison can somewhat be made with overall oil shortfalls because of the Hormuz blockades, but within US production volumes we can't really compare how much we consume vs produce like that.
It is quite correct in the aggregate (as you hinted) and I've been studying this for decades including through and for the military. Of course there are always nuances to everything as you point out but the aggregate numbers are correct. You can look up the stats yourself. If I were you, I wouldn't trust me either LOL... Chip
Allow me to update the numbers in which US production has increased greatly in the last two years. Keep in mind that the production number for the US also include natural gas liquids which ups the production numbers significantly. But in the aggregate the US produces about 20 mbpd and consumes 20 mbpd. Yes we export some and import some and the waters get muddied further depending on raw crude or refined products but the aggregate is still correct. Point being the JUSA is NOT going to become the world's gas station as Trump the clown suggests. It's just not possible unless they want to squeeze out domestic consumption and plan on $10/gallon gas and $15/gallon diesel here in the JUSA... Chip
Most Western (OECD) nations are using less and less commoditized energy internally thanks to decades of deindustrialisation.
This includes oil and gas and grid electricity.
This is despite record amounts of immigration into OECD nations over the past 15 years or more.
The US is probably looking for buyers for all its oil and gas.
Dream on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcKnq50F0pE