"Largest Ever" Russian Ballistic Attack Cripples Ukrainian Energy Grid

Last night Russia struck Ukraine with what is being called the largest ballistic missile attack of the entire nearly-four-year-long war. Ukraine’s main energy authority reported literally every one of their thermal power plants was down in the country amid widespread blackouts:

https://kyivindependent.com/all-ukraines-state-owned-thermal-power-plants-stop-working-after-russias-largest-ever-attack/

Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik:

The official energy authority Tsentroenergo writes:

The type of panicked teeth-gnashing has never been seen before—here from Ukrainian foreign minister Sybiha:

Strikes have been carried out on substations of two nuclear power plants. Kyiv urgently demands to convene the IAEA Council, - Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls for Europe’s help 🤷‍♂️

▪️Kyiv, using propaganda accusations, tries to stop the strikes on its faltering energy sector. Now Zelensky’s side is shouting about the threat to nuclear safety for Europe:

➖During today’s attacks, the targets were again substations that supply the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants. Russia is endangering Europe’s nuclear safety, - complains Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Sybiga.

Kiev was without power as electric trams exploded due to the power surges:

Below is the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant in the Kharkov region:

Zmievskaya TPP after night strikes. According to official statements, the station is stopped until further notice.

The situation appeared apocalyptic, although there were some dissenting opinions.

Here Russian quasi-analyst FighterBomber chimes in with a little of both honey and vinegar:

New records in the sockets of the Ukrainians.

It’s hard to say exactly how it really is there. 600 volts in sockets all over Ukraine or whining that has nothing to do with reality, which serves the purpose of urgent fundraising for generators and the hope that we will stop supporting the energy sector of the Ukrainians.

According to Ukrainian subscribers, there is electricity almost everywhere. With interruptions, but it is there.

It is clear that we do not want to hit the nuclear power plants. It is clear that after finishing with the thermal and hydro power plants, something will have to be done with the nuclear power plants and power lines from Europe.

But, damn, a thousand drones and a dozen missiles a day can solve this issue.

As I understand it, Ukraine is currently in the worst state during the entire special military operation.

It has never been worse.

If we keep them in this state for a couple of months, it will be great.

There is a lot of argument now over what Russia’s plan is, precisely, and how it squares with what was perceived as past Russian restraint when it came to strikes on Ukraine’s grid.

Russian analyst Rybar had just roused discussions with a recent analysis claiming that Russia is destroying everything but the key 750kV electric lines. However, the latest strikes have been confirmed to have hit even precisely those:

RussiansWithAttitude had what is likely the most correct take on Russia’s planning surrounding this:

imo the purpose of the energy grid strikes isn’t to take out the grid, but to 1) create problems, tension and lots of busywork for the ukrainian rear, 2) bring the grid to the edge, to a point where a single strike package targeting 750 kVs and NPPs could take it out for real, 3) as a consequence of 2), be ready to escalate at a moment’s notice once a “third party” comes into play. i think people severely underestimate how much russian planning goes into preparing for the eventual open NATO/EU entry into the war. it’s also a demonstration for the latter to disincentivize that. “look at how much stuff in europe we could be blowing up every single night and there’s nothing you could do against it, so stay the fuck out”

This is absolutely a good point, as well:

Many people who want a total power grid collapse in Ukraine likely have not thought it entirely through. It would mean millions of elderly, sick, and otherwise helpless people suffering and going on the brink—a situation that would be seized upon with glee by the Western press machine and turned into a second Holodomor such that even Russia’s allies would balk at their continued support.

That being said, what we can conclude is that the situation is certainly different, and in general far worse than it has been in the past, particularly now that Ukraine’s air defenses are attritioned and Russian strike capabilities are more advanced and numerous than ever.

Here Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat explains that Russia is using more ballistics than ever before:

However, we must also consider the very real possibility that Russia is merely bringing Ukraine to such an energy brink for the sake of deterring Ukraine’s own further strikes on Russia’s energy sector, which have been painful in conjunction with the various ongoing Western sanctions instruments, albeit not anywhere near existential as claimed.

For Russia and Putin a kind of war ‘status quo’, where Russia can continue to maintain economic health, is the ideal scenario, and Russia would much rather have no strikes on its own energy centers in exchange for walking back the same on Ukraine. This is because Putin knows the AFU is already collapsing even without the focus on Ukraine’s energy grid, so taking out the grid is not a particular prerequisite for victory.

After all, as stated earlier, what could Russia’s goal really be in the total collapse of the Ukrainian energy grid? It would do little good to have a new Holodomor campaign be launched by the West’s global information machine. But this is merely to play devil’s advocate and muse on the possibilities; it could very well be wrong, and Russia may actually seek to bring down the grid once and for all, though I remain somewhat skeptical of the long-term moral efficacy of this.

Let us ask the audience:

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