Israel's Short-Lived Glory Celebrated by Kneejerk Polemicists, + Ukraine War Updates
Israel finally succeeded in killing the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah to almost orgiastic ecstasies in the West. Many are now celebrating that Israel has achieved an ‘extraordinary decapitation’ of Hezbollah’s entire leadership in sequence: first “eliminating” the low echelon footsoldiers via the pager attack, then higher ups with radios and Hollywood-like missile strikes, all the way up to a final decapitating attack on the top heads themselves.
This is meant to be an unprecedented show of precision and planning the likes of which the world has never seen before. Israel admitted the pager attack itself took 15 years to plan, setting up shell companies within shell companies, and even having those companies actually produce and ship real products for several years in order to first build up a reputation of authenticity for them, so they would be entrusted when the time came to distribute the lethal devices.
And what did they get for 15 years’ worth of work and planning? There isn’t a single shred of evidence I’m aware of that the attack took any real Hezbollah members out. All I saw were hospitals soaked in the blood of civilian casualties and collateral, and oceans of Hasbarah dreck claiming legions of Hezbollah were washed away by the Zionist’s supremacy.
Just note how similar today’s claims are to those from the 2006 Lebanon War—from wiki:
It was later reported that the Israel Air Force after midnight, 13 July, attacked and destroyed 59 stationary medium-range Fajr rocket launchers positioned throughout southern Lebanon. Operation Density allegedly only took 34 minutes to carry out but was the result of six years of intelligence gathering and planning. Between half and two-thirds of Hezbollah medium-range rocket capability was estimated by the IDF to have been wiped out. According to Israeli journalists Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff the operation was "Israel's most impressive military action" and a "devastating blow for Hezbollah". In the coming days IAF allegedly also attacked and destroyed a large proportion of Hezbollah's long range Zelzal-2 missiles.
"All the long-range rockets have been destroyed," chief of staff Halutz allegedly told the Israeli government, "We've won the war."
Read the bolded portions above, then compare to today’s shallow jubilations.
Now even figures like Dugin have heralded the supremacy of Israel’s actions as an exemplar or epitome of how nations should fight their enemies, with zero restraint and decisive authority.
"It is unpleasant to admit, but Israel's radical determination in the ruthless destruction of its enemies clearly contrasts with the behavior of not only these enemies, but also ourselves in relations with the Kyiv regime. Israel is playing ahead, and it is now clear that it provoked Hamas to attack, which did not bring any fruits to the Resistance at all, and Israel managed to destroy the leadership of the forces antagonistic to it in the Middle East and easily carry out a large-scale genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. Again - whoever is faster is right. Whoever acts more decisively and recklessly wins. But we are cautious and constantly wavering. By the way, Iran is the same. This is a road to nowhere. Gaza is gone. Hamas's leadership is gone. Now Hezbollah's leadership is gone. And Iranian President Raisi is gone. And his pager is gone. But Zelensky is here. And Kyiv stands as if nothing had happened. We either enter the game for real, or... I don't want to think about the second option. But in modern wars, timing, speed, dromocracy decide everything. The Zionists act quickly, ahead of the curve. Boldly. And they win. That's what we should do." - Alexander Dugin
“Whoever acts more decisively and recklessly wins.” What did Israel win, exactly? You don’t “win” by killing a figurehead. Would Russia “win” by killing Zelensky in a strike?
The problem is, such blandishments miss the greater nuances: Israel is able to do what it does against its neighbors thanks entirely to the system of Western hegemony which endows Israel with omnipotent-like powers of commerce and military alike.
For instance, many have exulted over Israel’s “remarkable” ability to infiltrate all its enemies’ organizations with spies, allowing them to pinpoint the locations of figures like Nasrallah or Ismail Haniyeh. But just like North Korea has been artificially starved via decades’ long sanctions and embargo regimes compared to the South, so does Israel have unquantifiably unfair economic advantages over all its neighbors which ultimately make it quite elementary to wield decisive sway and subversion over them. It’s no different to how US “won” the fraudulent Iraqi war by merely paying off a host of poor Iraqi generals with blood money; to them a cool million bucks is a lifetime treasure, while to the US state dept it’s pocket change.
By keeping neighbors poor with the help of the predominantly predatory Western economic model—which includes the dollar reserve currency dominion, policies like Memorandum 200, etc.—Israel is easily able to leverage money onto artificially impoverished nations like Lebanon and even Iran in order to pay off the needed people to become turncoat agents. Israel is flush with endless billions of cash from the taxpayers of the world’s richest nations which is utilized to bribe the desperate and needy in these countries to provide intelligence—which is likely how the locations of Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., were obtained.
In short, it’s not a “miracle” of operational capabilities but rather Israel’s historic handicap against its neighbors which allows the achievement of whatever small victories are laid claim to.
Now they’re signaling intention to do a “limited invasion” of Lebanon:
For all Israel’s “remarkable” prowess, they’ve managed to quickly sweep under the rug the fact that after a year of combat, they have not even been able to take out Hamas, which is slowly repopulating into Gaza—but we’re meant to believe they have entirely destroyed Hezbollah in a mere day or two of active strikes?
The apotheosis of today’s outcries is seen in this RWA post, which does make some good points:
One thing that’s true is that the resistance sphere has been classically led by a stodgy old, inflexible gerontocracy. Figures like Nasrallah, or Iran’s Khamenei—who’s almost 90 years old—along with much of Russia’s MoD at the start of the war. Compare to Israel’s younger, cunning state department, general staff, etc.
That being said, as I reported last time, Iran continues to signal restraint. Some have criticized me of misreading Iran’s ironclad support for Hezbollah, yet here is Iran’s former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif himself openly stating Iran is letting Hezbollah fend for itself:
Granted, the above video is a few days before Nasrallah’s death, but it still goes toward underscoring the likely accuracy of my earlier reading and that Iran does not appear intent on giving Israel what it wants by escalating the conflict.
It should be noted however that several top IRGC figures were allegedly also killed along with Nasrallah:
Iranian Officials state that a Group of Officers and Commanders with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG), including Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, the Deputy Commander of Operations for the IRGC as well as the Acting Commander of Quds Force Operations in Syria and Lebanon; were all Killed in yesterday’s Israeli Strike on Hezbollah’s Central Command Bunker in Beirut.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to play against time—is this the real reason for the envisioned “short window” of the Lebanese operation?
🇮🇱 Moody's Downgrades Israel's Economic Rating Again Due to War with Hezbollah
The agency predicts that the already difficult economic situation in Israel will worsen due to ongoing fighting in Gaza and a new conflict on the Lebanese border. Israel's economic rating fell from A2 to Baa1 — the decision was made even before the IDF attacked Hezbollah HQ in Beirut.
❗️ Israel's rating has been downgraded for the 2nd time this year: in February, from A1 to A2 due to a reduction in the country's GDP by 20%. And by the end of next year, the costs that military conflicts will entail will amount to another 12% of GDP, according to Israeli officials. However, the Israeli Finance Ministry believes that the country is doing well financially.
One must recall that smaller anti-imperial insurgencies must always rely on hybrid warfare and the weapon of time against larger, more powerful foes. Has Israel “defeated” Hezbollah? Even if they did, what kind of feat would it be? Hezbollah is not a country, it’s a tiny paramilitary force living inside of a country in part hostile to it, which means many in Lebanon quite freely give intelligence to Israel—so what can you expect? Iran on the other hand is quite a long ways away from Israel, separated by several countries—so how much exactly do you expect Iran to do?
No, the resistance’s main weapon is the slow erosion of time. I do not see any victory in Israel’s actions thus far, but what I do see is major jumping to conclusions by people who take every Israeli claim at face value, including claims that they’ve “destroyed all Hezbollah’s rockets”, etc., without any proof other than a few grainy distant videos of civilian apartment buildings exploding.
As a last interesting note:
This might sound like nothing but this is one of the most extraordinary revealing things Israel has said. In the words of Israeli officials themselves Nasrallah literally died because he refused a side deal that abandoned the Palestinians. In effect this man labelled "terrorist" died because he refused to yield on what all UN resolutions and the immense majority of the international community have been calling for ceaselessly. Except he, unlike those others, had teeth. So, unlike what so many people are saying, the real reason for his death isn't because "Hezbollah are terrorists and they're bad" but so Israel can pursue its land grab and ethnic cleansing unimpeded. He was one of the only ones actually willing to make them face accountability for it and, in their own words, that's why he had to die.
Back in Ukraine, after the comedown of the General Assembly ‘high’, Western media has returned to gloomy forecasts of Zelensky’s outlook:
Biden and his entourage doubt Zelensky's "victory plan" and the correctness of the decision to invade the Kursk region, — Politico
▪️ “They privately question his decision to launch an offensive in Russia, which diverted troops from the front line in the Donetsk region, and express concern about the long-term trajectory of the conflict,” the publication writes, citing sources.
▪️The White House is "concerned about the long-term trajectory of the conflict," officials told the publication.
RVvoenkor
The above NYT piece in particular is elucidating, because it covers in more detail the chariness with which US is approaching the topic of long range strikes into Russia. In a new ‘previously unreported’ secret intelligence assessment, they write:
U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said.
In particular, the intelligence agencies highlight Russia’s ability to escalate the hybrid war into Europe in a way that apparently terrifies the US:
The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles — from stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.
U.S. officials say the G.R.U., Russia’s military intelligence agency, has been responsible for most of the acts of sabotage in Europe that have taken place thus far. If Mr. Putin decides to expand the shadowy campaign in response to the use of U.S. and European missiles deep inside Russia, U.S. officials believe the Russians will continue to do so covertly, rather than conduct overt attacks on U.S. and European facilities and bases, to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.
Here you finally see it fully bared and naked, what I’ve been reporting since the beginning: unlike the feckless shrilling from the pro-UA commentariat on Twitter and such, the US itself knows full well what Russia can bring to bear if red lines continue to be crossed.
The intel agencies’ report also confirms that NATO’s weapons stocks are dwindling precariously fast:
But in their assessment, U.S. intelligence agencies express doubt that, even if the Ukrainians were permitted to use the long-range missiles, they would have enough of them to alter the course of the conflict in a fundamental way.
At Mr. Biden’s direction, the U.S. military could provide more ATACMS to the Ukrainians. But officials say the U.S. military itself has a limited supply of the missiles and needs to keep a reserve for its own potential military needs.
This was corroborated by the recent Times report which I first covered in the new paid subscriber piece from two days ago:
Ukraine's Western allies have nearly exhausted their weapons stockpiles due to long-term deliveries to the Ukrainian Armed Forces , - The Times.
"I think most Western countries have donated most of the resources they have," said British Under-Secretary of State for Defence Luke Pollard.
The MoD “sharply reduced” transfers of military equipment to Kyiv in the middle of 2023 after concluding further donations of lethal aid would pose “unacceptable risks to the UK’s military readiness”.
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Now another visceral reminder of Ukraine’s teetering disaster has been furnished by the latest set of regime press articles.
The above’s opening sentence is:
If Ukraine and its Western backers are to win, they must first have the courage to admit that they are losing.
It tables the idea for Ukraine being forced into concessions via the NATO lure:
This would be controversial, because nato’s members are expected to support each other if one of them is attacked. In opening a debate about this Article 5 guarantee, Mr Biden could make clear that it would not cover Ukrainian territory Russia occupies today, as with East Germany when West Germany joined nato in 1955; and that Ukraine would not necessarily garrison foreign nato troops in peacetime, as with Norway in 1949.
Another new Economist piece reveals some interesting figures:
It states that according to Ukrainian officials, the current frontline disposition is 450,000 Ukrainian troops vs. 540,000 Russian ones, and that Russia has the following losses:
An American official says that 100,000 Russians have been killed and 430,000 injured since the start of the war.
Further they state:
But 77% of Ukrainians say a friend or acquaintance has died in the war; 22% have lost a relative. Expectations of how long the war will last are increasing.
Hold on to these numbers above, because we’re going to plug them in with a set of other new revealing facts from the front.
A new bombshell Financial Times article has sent shockwaves even through pro-Ukrainian analyst circles:
The most stunning excerpt:
Along the front in Donetsk, four commanders, a deputy commander and nearly a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times that the new conscripts lack basic combat skills, motivation and often abandon their positions when they come under fire.
The commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation.
“When the new guys get to the position, a lot of them run away at the first shell explosion,” said a deputy commander in Ukraine’s 72nd mechanised brigade fighting near the eastern city of Vuhledar, a key bulwark that the Russians are attempting to flank.
We haven’t had such a jaw-dropping statement since the times of Ukrainian commanders revealing fresh troops last less than four hours on the Bakhmut front.
Remember this?
The FT article goes on:
Senior Ukrainian officials said a recent mobilisation drive had allowed Ukraine to draft about 30,000 soldiers a month since May, when a new conscription law came into force. That is on par with the number of troops Russia has been able to recruit by offering large bonuses and generous salaries.
But commanders on the ground and military analysts have warned that the newly drafted troops are not highly motivated, are psychologically and physically unprepared — and are being killed at an alarming rate as a result.
After difficult combat stints, many new conscripts go Awol, commanders said. Some return so shell-shocked and exhausted that they are checked into psychiatric wards.
Several bungled rotations in recent months have led to Russia making easier gains than expected towards Pokrovsk.
Seasoned troops are killed off “too quickly”, leaving nothing but 45 and 50 year olds, the commander states.
Another recent report stated that the UK no longer receives any Ukrainians to train simply because they appear to be running out. This FT article corroborates training woes:
New troops rarely practised with live rounds because of ammunition shortages, he added.
“Some of them don’t even know how to hold their rifles. They peel more potatoes than they shoot bullets,” he said, adding that he had bought paintball equipment to replace rifles and live rounds so that new recruits could get more practice without wasting precious ammunition.
The pro-UA echo chamber on Twitter was aghast with disbelief at the findings:
A new Military Watch Magazine article corroborated the losses:
Senior conscription officer in Ukraine’s Poltava Region Lieutenant Colonel Vitaly Berezhnyon on September 15, 2023 revealed that units had been taking extreme casualties, observing: “Out of 100 people who joined the units last fall, 10-20 remain, the rest are dead, wounded or disabled.”
This indicated a casualty rate of 80-90 percent in conscript units in the past year. Berezhnyon’s statement was far from isolated, with Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom and former foreign minister Vadim Pristaiko in April indicating catastrophic personnel losses. “It has been our policy from the start not to discuss our losses. When the war is over, we will acknowledge this. I think it will be a horrible number,” he observed at the time.
But in another new bombshell, ex-Rada MP and ex-Deputy Commander of an Aidar unit, Ihor Mosiychuk declared that the AFU has likely suffered over 500,000 casualties thus far, specifying this meant killed, MIA, and seriously wounded only—not counting lightly wounded; in short, this represents “irrecoverable losses”:
That means taking the usual 1:3 or 1:4 ratio in mind, Ukraine could have something like 1.5 to 2+ million total casualties if you count lightly wounded, which return to combat.
Now, taking the earlier Russian figure which said Russia has around 100k dead and 430k injured, let’s run some numbers. Statistics show up to 15-20% of “injured” would be maimed or irrecoverably injured, giving us a figure of about 50-80k, give or take, from that 430k total wounded. This means Russia may have ~100k dead plus or minus 20k, and another 40-80k irrecoverably maimed, with another ~350k lightly wounded, most of which can return to combat. That’s not to mention this number can represent a much smaller amount of people given that many are wounded numerous times and continue to return, thus running up the total injury list.
Taking Mosiychuk’s numbers at face value, we can hypothetically calculate:
Out of the 500k Ukrainian “dead and seriously wounded”, the purely dead would probably represent about 320k while the irrecoverably wounded the additional 180k and the “lightly wounded” about another ~750k. This satisfies the rough ratio of hard wounded being 15-20% of total light wounded, and both types of wounded being roughly 3 to 4 times higher than pure KIA, since in this case ~320k KIA is 1/3 of the 900k+ wounded represented above.
So, using this rubric we can give one potential estimate of current casualties as:
Russia: ~100k KIA, 50-60k irrecoverable wounded, 300k light wounded, for total casualties of 450k. This is in line with big claims that Russia has “500k casualties”, although they are spun to make you think that’s all KIA.
Ukraine: 320k KIA, 180k irrecoverable wounded, ~750k light wounded, for total casualties of 1.2 to 1.3 million.
Recall the earlier figure I asked you to note:
But 77% of Ukrainians say a friend or acquaintance has died in the war; 22% have lost a relative. Expectations of how long the war will last are increasing.
I asked AI to compute this into a calculation which can give a rough estimate of how many total casualties this could imply given a country of roughly 30 million people.
Using Dunbar’s number and other calculus, the AI reached an estimate that the above figures for a country of 30m would represent about 1.32 million total casualties:
For Ukraine, the situation is a bit more severe than the pure numbers would dictate for the reason that huge amounts of servicemen both go AWOL as well as flee from the manpower pool by simply refusing to get called up, which massively affects total fieldable men in the pool.
But let’s quickly run one last analysis.
Simplifying the above Russian casualty figures to 100k dead, 50k irrecoverable, 300k light wounded, we get 450k casualties divided by the 31 months of this war: 14,500 sanitary losses per month.
But most of them return, as they are “lightly wounded”, however they still represent temporary need for replacement off the line. Thus, Russia’s recruitment of 30k men a month, which I believe had possibly recently dipped to 20k, leaves a little room for building up of reserves.
Also, there was one rumor that some of Russia’s claimed recruitment figures were a little fudged in the following way: they can claim 30,000 volunteers per month, however a portion of that was potentially some kind of contract signed with the MOD by volunteer fighters who were already participating in the war—thus not actually adding any new real frontline troops—rather than brand new men walking into a recruitment office somewhere in Moscow.
In short, these tight margins along with some fudging could be explanation for why Russia too habitually suffers from some manpower issues while having much less losses than Ukraine.
The numbers above break down into something like: 480 total casualties per day on the Russian side, with 95 of them KIA, an additional 45 irrecoverable wounded, and an additional 250+ lightly wounded.
This roughly checks out, given that Prigozhin had long ago said in Bakhmut alone, somewhere between 20-50 Wagners died, KIA, per day, depending on the day.
—
A new NYT article gives a little more info:
At a location near the front where injured soldiers are treated, the steady influx of the wounded last weekend testified to the intensity of the fight. In just 24 hours, small crews of medics treated more than 70 soldiers."
So, in a single small section of the front, Ukraine had 70 wounded in a single day, many of them heavily as the article goes on to describe. Multiply that by dozens of other sections of the front and it’s likely Ukraine is getting upwards of 1000 total casualties or more per day, with potentially 200-300 of them being dead, if not more. Though I believe that number ticks up greatly during more intense operations or offensives.
The above new FT article replays the same old tune for the Ukrainian side:
While declining to provide casualty numbers, he described his unit as in shambles, with wounded soldiers sent to hospitals and psychiatric wards, while the fit ones have been redeployed to different units.
On the front, the latest update from a Ukrainian officer of the 68th brigade on the Pokrovsk situation:
Here a captured servicemen from the 151st Brigade of Ukraine in the Pokrovsk direction gives exact losses, which correspond to 95% losses:
The autotranslation is spotty but in effect he states that from this brigade’s first battalion, out of 600 people only 9 remained alive, and from the second battalion of 600-800 people, only 47 remained.
He says around ~70 people were left alive from a brigade of ~1400, which is 5%.
We’ll save the more detailed battlefield updates for next time, so for now just a few last items:
Notorious neocon Francis Fukuyama says Ukraine should begin committing terror attacks against Russia in order to make Russian citizens “feel the war” more:
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy reportedly told Voice of America that Washington may greenlight Ukrainian deep strikes in winter, with some sources claiming Biden told Zelensky “after the election” they will give him the greenlight.
Meanwhile, Soros proudly hosted Lammy at a soiree in his own private penthouse:
It’s clear to see the direct pipeline of influence from Soros-BlackRock’s involvement in Ukrainian land and reconstruction deals, toward pushing for the continuation of the war to make sure Russia doesn’t take their treasure.
—
Here’s just one recent offensive success, showing Russia still utilizing armored columns effectively in capturing new territory just north of Ugledar and south of Kurakhove, with POWs seen taken at the end:
28.09.24 Novomikhaylovka - Katerinovka Active military operations in the Novomikhaylovka area. Attack of the Russian Armed Forces by motorized rifle units consisting of two assault groups. Assault on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions on the Vodyanoye-Katerinovka line. The Russian Armed Forces advanced 2 km westward and took up new positions south of Katerinovka. Geolocation: 47.858762 37.342112 in post below
—
Lastly:
Belousov held another closed-door meeting with top legendary Russian correspondents to address all issues on the frontline, allowing the correspondents to deliver word directly from frontline soldiers to the MOD about the most pressing concerns, deficiencies, etc. which need to be addressed.
The Minister of Defense held a meeting with military correspondents covering the SVO
Military bloggers were also present at the meeting with Belousov.
The meeting participants discussed a number of issues and problems related to the situation in various parts of the front.
Video and details after today's meeting with the Minister of Defense from A. Sladkov:
- high openness, 90% of data cannot be disclosed;
- more positive things than problematic moments;
- the minister is well informed, knows many details, the names of commanders and officers, and has a detailed understanding of the situation;
- questions about the problems of reporters' work in the SVO have disappeared;
- on all the questions we asked at previous meetings, a report on the results of the inspections and investigations is being prepared, the minister asked to give him feedback on the inspections
- through us to the military environment and back to the minister;
- requested specific data on the punishments of those who, when communicating with reporters, do not hide shortcomings and data on egregious cases. “Otherwise, the meeting was very interesting, informative and necessary!”
RVvoenkor
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"And what did they get for 15 years’ worth of work and planning?"
Killed their entire tech sector I would say. Who in their right mind would buy any electronic device made in Israel now, or from anyone with any connection to the place?
We know it is easy peasy for the west to beat up poor people in places condemned by it to levels of poverty and constant disruption, just so these mini stages can function as theatres for this sort of display- to showcase western 'might' and, metaphorically speaking, seize back allies from the 'other side'.
Israel can win the battle and lose the war, which it will do as it continues to bleed out people and with them, its entire economy. Meanwhile what has Israel- meaning the western hegemon- achieved with this latest stunt beyond headline (forgive the pun) propaganda?
It has ensured the outbreak of really nasty counter strikes in the various parts of the hegemon as its real purpose, to turn coats within the surging BRICs bloc, falls on its face. This conflict is not over. Nothing has been won in cutting off a head except a head on a pole. All eyes that matter are not focussed on these gruesome pieces of theatre that western captive audiences can cheer, but on what is going on on the economic stage. Because as the dollar loses its fighting force, the west will no longer be able to buy its way through the thicket of physical conflict.
This is where the clever heads are currently engaged, while the west plays its last card and goes down with a bang, blowing everything up- because it has no way, directly, of fighting off the reality that an alliance of those powers who hold the real bottom line wealth, the scarce resources that underpin the ability to go on making the weapons and churning out the fuel for any future fight, are awakening to this power and taking steps to bring it into being on the only stage that really counts, the place where wars are really won or lost.
It is no co-incidence that despite lurid headline attacks on Russia, Russia is winning, we could say has already won, where it really counts- on the ground in the resource rich territory of eastern Ukraine.