Iran Ups Ante as Israel Chafes for Face-Saving Escalation

Israel reportedly continues to edge closer toward unilateral Iranian strikes despite all ostensible efforts by the US to pump the brakes on the clash which could spiral out of control.

Preparations for an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities are said to be nearing completion, with the final steps, including the transfer of munitions and operational planning, currently ongoing, according to Channel 12.

Both sides are holding their cards close to their chest, signaling at times contradictory information. For instance, Iran has long held that its fatwa against nuclear weapons prevents any possibility of their construction, yet new reports continue to hint the opposite. For instance, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization who has been linked to the Iranian nuclear program states in a recent interview:

“We reached the capability to build nuclear weapons 15-20 years ago.”

Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization:

– We have not yet received the orders to produce nuclear weapons. If they tell me to build it, I will do it.

– If Israel or the United States bomb our nuclear production sites, it won't affect our timetable to get a bomb.

– These days it is possible to create tactical nuclear weapons that do not fall under the category of WMDs, we can use them to destroy an Israeli military base for example.

PS: The above point implies that tactical nukes may not be included in Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's ban on WMDs.

Listen very carefully to what he says: not only that Iran can swiftly build nukes if ordered to do so, but that any strike by the West on its facilities would have no effect because Iran has dispersed them, as well as hidden critical segments deep underground.

Some may be skeptical of this, but would be interested in Rafael Grossi’s statements in the latest FT piece:

Worse, Iran’s nuclear capabilities could not be destroyed with a single surgical strike. “The most sensitive things are half a mile underground — I have been there many times,” he says. “To get there you take a spiral tunnel down, down, down.”

Charles Lister confirmed in a tweet several weeks ago that the US no longer even has the capability to take out Iran’s sites:

When both sides are in agreement on the same notion, it can hardly be called propaganda or misdirection; it clearly points to Fereydoon Abbasi’s statements from the earlier video being accurate.

One analyst states:

Grossi said: “I’ve been there multiple times. To reach it, one must go deep, then deeper, and deeper still. Iran’s nuclear program cannot be destroyed by an attack.”

He’s right. The world’s most powerful bunker-buster, the GBU-57, can only penetrate 66 meters, while even the latest nuclear bomb can only impact up to 500 meters underground.

Iran has placed its IR-9 centrifuges on shock-absorber systems, capable of withstanding 6.0 Richter scale earthquakes. These sites lie deep within mountains.

Israel does not have the GBU-57; only the US does, and only B-2 bombers can carry them — 2 bombs per jet. To destroy just one Iranian site at 800m depth, the US would need to drop at least 12 bombs precisely at one spot — requiring 6 bombers per site.

Iran is believed to have at least 5 such deep nuclear sites. To destroy them all, the US would need to deploy 30 B-2 bombers, but it only has 18 total. Meaning, at least 2 Iranian sites will survive.

Moreover, Iran has not built straight shafts. After every 50 meters, tunnels twist hundreds of meters sideways before going down again — making pinpoint strikes nearly impossible. Even if the first bomb hits, the remaining 11 could hit empty ground.

In short, Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure is now too deep, too complex, and too protected to be taken out militarily