Note: All comments calling for the destruction/elimination/genocide/etc. of any one people of the earth will be deleted, with other consequent actions.
You're free to debate openly, but do not call for the death or genocide of anyone, nor use demeaning racial epithets.
it is hard to avoid it, when so many on the "other" side are carrying out such things in real life. but you are correct. no reason to feed the mob mentality.
That’s why the evil leaders in Iran (who willfully murder their own people by the tens of thousands) need to be stopped. Oh wait you like those guys right?
I agree some moderation is called for. yes, people enraged by the actions of Israel/US may fling death wishes upon perpetrators, but it is not wise and certainly not prudent.
Too much of that and the site itself, now quite popular may start receiving unwanted attention.
That said, nothing to stop us from weaving certain scenarios that are less than kind or merciful to evil doers, right?
It seems, as we expected, the Iranians were well prepared and the US thought they could bluff and bullshit their way to a win. Trump obviously has little understanding of the Iranian mindset and little understanding of strategic matters altogether. If the Iranians choose they could cripple the world economy by destroying Gulf oil production and desalination. It's quite a hand, let's hope Trump doesn't think they are bluffing. I doubt they are.
"It seems, as we expected, the Iranians were well prepared," or that the US wasn't and couldn't be. It's a clownish administration playing the tough guy with Pete, Captain America; Bessent, the man who turns lead into gold; Rubio, the Viceroy of Venezuela; and so on, all led by Taligula.
It's flabbergasting that these guys were so stupid/ill-informed that they publicly broadcast how easy this would be for the US/Israel and they've (hopefully) been totally wrong.
Maybe they simply assumed that Iran would back down and that was their calculus. Simply moronic to undertake something that may well backfire.
Lots of evidence that they weren't ill-informed, that there were people in the administration, particularly the military, that told him it would be catastrophic. Sadly, ignoring the people you should listen to isn't new.
Macgregor had a chance to ask Caspar Weinberger, Sec/Defense under Reagan, about the bombing of the US barracks in Lebanon. Weinberger said Reagan didn't consult him before sending US troops there, he was convinced by Sec/State George Schultz that it was needed "to bring peace to Lebanon and Beirut." Weinberger told Reagan after it was a done deal, "You're not going to get that in that part of the world. All we're going to be are targets." And as we know, he turned out to be exactly right.
It certainly seems weird the US would go ahead with this whole Iran operation after all the warnings out there by so many people. How could Trump not k what wet now all did? surely people in the administration, the ones known as "advisors", read the same columns we all did, including this one. There were reports that Admiral cain specifically advised against this course, talking directly to Trump, meaning so did others.
So what gives?
May be Trump himself had no choice? perhaps the pressures brought on him to join Israel - even as his own military chiefs cautioned against it - were too strong to resist?
No matter how I look at this, even considering Trump motivated by a need to take atten off the wall-to-wall Epstein scandals, taking Bibi pressure into account and perhaps losing some of his own reasoning abilities, the simple calculus of risk/benefit should have given him a pause. Something doesn't add up - there either were more factors behind the scenes we are not aware of, or - as a last resort - I may have to go back to my Simulation hypothesis.
It’s only been two weeks and Iran is on the ropes. They only have limited weapons left but can execute on terrorist tactics for years. They are world experts on it.
If ordinary schlubs like us can work this out, how come the "best and brighest" in DC couldn't? Everyone here knows that the Iranians are the world's leading missile and drone specialists after the Russians and that they have the absolute power to close the Straits of Hormuz and destroy the global economy. How could the people in DC and Tel Aviv not predict what would happen? This question is baffling to me.
The US has the most powerful military in history. I guess they think just turning up for a fight is enough to cower their would be victims. They have failed to understand that Iran has prepared for this for decades precisely to thwart their strategies (if you can call destroying everything in sight a strategy).
It's hubris, believing their own mythology and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. The same way the decision-makers have been ignoring reality for decades.
Russia and China abstained but did not veto the resolution condemning Iran for striking the US bases in other countries.
There was a separate resolution introduced by Russia condemning the US and Israel for their aggression. But that one was of course vetoed (who could have guessed).
So now the official UN position is that Iran is to blame for what is happening.
If there is no shared anti-imperialist ideology, all that is left is greed.
And if greed is what guides you, you have already surrendered to the devil. The devil being the West in this case.
The interests of the capitalist class within each country always coincide much more with the interests of the globalist Western capitalist class than with the interests of the people of that country as a whole.
It's not that complicated.
It was always going to be absolutely trivial to split and subvert BRICS. Absolutely clown show indeed.
There is little doubt now that well managed hybrid socialist/capitalist economies outperform in terms of standards of living for the general population.
The extent of "socialism" can be measured by the % of GDP generated by government spending. These tables are worth a look...
It can also be argued that if the government ratio gets excessively high, that capital flight and a debt spiral will ensue. What the government money is spent on is also important. Social programs supporting infrastructure, food and housing will have a bigger multiplier effect than say, defense spending.
'Social programs supporting infrastructure, food and housing will have a bigger multiplier effect than say, defense spending.'
Only infra spending out of that list raises productivity and thus wealth (and helps pay the interest on rising gov debt).
And infra investing is exactly what western gov's are not doing, whether they're on the left or the right. They're strangling their economies with regulation (Schumpeter's prediction).
Europe not only cannot get AI off the ground because of it, new neighborhoods cannot be built and businesses cannot be connected to electricity grids as Europe saves the planet by deconstructing its physical economies. The investment that IS being done is preparing electric grids for even more renewable energy…Making them even more unstable, unreliable and the electricity even more expensive.
The UK, NL, DE etc are openly preparing their populations for large scale black outs while the Nordics, just 2, 3 years after connecting to the continental electric grid, are looking for a way out because of instability and higher prices.
European gov’s and the EU (our future Total State) hope they can kick the can as long as possible via low skill immigration. Which only increases the pressure on infra, housing, welfare etc.
But to Marxists all that is not a problem since they're after the collapse of the nation state in the first place. Social instability and violence are not only their go-to avenue, they’re their only avenue.
You are absolutely right and you were always right.
Putin or Xi are just capitalists, even the respective populations in China and Russia are in fact poor pathetic consumers who dream American dream. They do not want to fight consumer society, capitalism or the technological Matrix.
It is so disgusting how deep are Putin and Xi in Trump's anus.
Lots of solutions proposed by people who never passed or even studied Algebra I (two variables, one independent, one dependent). But they’re quick to propose answers for multivariate analysis based on “it’s not that complicated”.
People like True/False tests because they a 50% chance of passing. Multiple choice quiz — passing odds are smaller. I believe you were responding to Elena, who cannot see that the world goes beyond military resources and battles.
I'm stunned that you think reducing dollar dependence- the means of payment - is not part of the remit of a country's trading relationship 😮
Brics was formed to foster trade between the countries of the global south - because the global south has and produces the lion's share of the worlds resources - which are priced using currencies and exchanges that exclude the producers, favouring the traders. And a huge part of that is making trade in the currencies of the producers. That would mean reducing dollar dependence as a huge byproduct.
Stands to reason - countries that trade in dollars can easily be starved of the means of trade by the western world - factually this is to keep control of world trade in western hands. The western world does not want to lose financial control - hence sanctions.
Gobsmacked you don't see this 🫤🤔
There is not a single mention of military association implied or stated in the membership of Brics. In fact it is because of that that it has gained so many interested parties. No country wants to fight in another's wars.
One can not truly separate economics from politics. In fact, just a little over 100 years ago there was no separate study of economics. It was just called political economy. And I agree with others, the BRICS should either put up or shut up.
UN is a joke and has lost any significance since CIA murdered the General secretary Hammarsjold. They had the Wehrmacht soldier Waldheim and since then more or less weak puppets.
Most extraordinary concept! Rules based norms. This must be something similar to the proof of God's existence according to Saint Thomas, the non caused Cause.
Now a new Thomas gifts to the world the concept of the norm based norm.
In all fairness, I think it’s part of a long term strategy by Russia/China to reign in the GCC through a security framework away from the US and Israel. Sort of what China/Russia did in the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia a couple years ago. By not entirely embarrassing the GCC, they are laying the groundwork for capitalizing on the deep anger and frustration of the gulf states for being thrown under the bus, robbed, and betrayed by the US. China and Russia are keeping that door open for the GCC. They know everybody knows who’s to blame anyway!
"China and Russia are keeping that door open for the GCC."
When the US (and West) is chased out of West Asia, Iran and the GCC will
be rebuilt by Russia/China and the power dynamics will have shifted East, ipso facto. The Iranians are fighting for ALL OF US. I bow down. Hopefully the US/Israel crime syndicate doesn't throw a hissy fit and burn it all to the ground. Tick-Tock. Patience grasshopper...big wheels keep on turning.
Asymmetric warfare IS terrorism. And was everywhere from Algeria to Vietnam to the current day.
And it is hard as hell to defeat, but never wins. I've drunk a Martini and used an ATM in Hanoi. We could just sent Visa over there. Not troops. Those women working water buffalo arent people I wanna fuck with.
Jealous here Thomas. My wife and I moved to Miami after getting married (1978). We worked in restaurants and on a cruise ship. Sailed all the way to La Guaira, the port serving Caracas. I've had the best times of my life in Miami and Ft Lauderdale.
The Netflix drug movie, Griselda, captures a bit of the spirit of the time. <<link>>
YES! We were really dressed that badly then!! Gold chains and a man-clutch! I wasn't involved in the drug world but bodies dumped in canals and machine gun battles were a thing in late '70s Miami. Colombians...An exciting time to be young, in love and in wild Miami. Saturday Night Fever on the beach. We planned on starting a family and knew we couldn't afford private schools so we returned north. If you cared about education for your kids, you dodged public schools in Dade County.
Enjoy the sun, crazy traffic and the eye-candy-Latin-ladies. Powerful nostalgia enters the room-he wipes away a tear...No regrets.
The Iranians are so damn smart. why are so many dead? Why is their oil industry on fire. Why are they begging Trump to call off Israel? Inquiring minds want to know.
Source: The Trump administration has reportedly urged Israel [in a deal with Iran] to avoid further strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, including oil facilities and the power grid, amid the escalating conflict in March 2026. The request aims to prevent a significant surge in global oil prices and to avoid destroying infrastructure that could be vital for a future, post-regime Iran.
Iran has destroyed all of the US thaad long range radar systems and what it has left in terms of Patriot systems are rather poor. Not my view but that of MIT professor Ted Postol who is an expert of such systems.
South Africa is also simply a token (founding) member. No real economy any longer since the Bolshevik Apes were handed the wheel. The whole mandella worship thing went stale a decade ago and that was really all what gave South Africa's membership to bricks any legitimacy.
South Africa has its own issues and they are being handled in RSA. Thank heaven we haven't been co-opted to the same Israel worship and Zionist influence that westerners have.
Is there any among your leaders who actually aren't taking money from Zionists?
It’s a sad thing when comments like “Bolshevik Apes” appears unchallenged on this Substack. As the Israelis are now finding out, the people who are regarded as subhuman are in fact just as human as anyone else and can learn to take the foul-mouthed and complacent “masters of the universe” by rude surprise when they are reminded in a manner very much not to their liking of what other humans can achieve. Meanwhile those whose standard of morality is defined by their vainglorious abuse and utter lack of empathy can be left to wallow in their own shit.
To successfully push NATO back, Russia needs to win the peace in Ukraine after the hot phase of war ends. Then most of the former Soviet countries need to be neutral, not rabid Russophobic opponents.
It is a more challenging operation than what Iran faces, carrot and stick. Now the energy carrot has become a lot more significant in a negotiated outcome.
Why should Putin reject talking to Trump? If the sanctions are only partly lifted, then Russia can make tons of money. Money needed to import the needed goods for the war and the thriving civil economy, where the worker shortages are a real problem. And Putin did not give away a single Russian position!
Wasn't it you, to whom I wrote that at the long run (should the war progress) I see $200 (plus!) as realistic. But for the next future I expected a lot of "politics". The war will end soon - drop. This sentence was a lie - up. Oil reserves usage - drop. Oil reserves at dangerous level - up. Oil facility hit - up. Damage at oil facility is only symbolic - down. And one thing did not happen until now: the paper market, but here we could see more dramatic ups and downs. Of course, at the end of the road supply and demand will meet.
By the way, I see no massive connection between oil price and the telephone call. The call must have happened 9th or 10th of March, media reports started at the 10th of March. Here in Europe we look at Brent index, this reached its lowest point at the 9th (€76,80), so the telephone call could not be priced in. Since the 9th the price is going up, now we are close to €100. Of course WTI looks different, but your $30 is notwhere to be seen. The WTI found its bottom at around $75, down from its very, very short peak at $90 (opening at the 9th) and jumped back to some $80 and now we see $95 as daily top and 90 bottom. Please note, Brent numbers are in Euro, WTI in Dollar! And if you want to follow charts, Brent prices are for days, maybe hours, WTI is priced second per second. Question: Where is this big impact from this phone call?
Lenin said something about capitalists willing to sell the rope they are going to be hanged with. This is what Putins behavior reminds me of. Not long ago, they even sold nuclear fuel to the pindos.
Why calling Americans after Greek descended folks from around the Black Sea/Sea of Azov should be the perjorative for Russians slanging Americans I'm not entirely sure, needs some research.
Totally agree! 5 years ago I admired Putin. 3 years ago I was quite perplexed about him and his "red lines" and shit. Now I think the guy is a dimwit and a coward surrounded by equally dimwitted "advisors" and west-loving oligarchs (like that Dmitriev POS) who dream of only licking the US and European asses and keeping their palaces in French Riviera...
I'm always amazed at the number of people who think Russia must fight all wars. Iran and Russia have not signed a military pact, so Russia isn't expected to exoend it's own blood fighting the ZUS.
So any charging to the rescue is not going to happen.
Iran is fully capable of fighting its wars on its own in any case.
Russia makes deals that benefit Russia. No one else. Just like every other country. They aren't going to fight people just because others feel they should 🙄
All a country has to do is make a few anti-empire noises, murmur about an energy deal (while tying up that deal in endless fruitless negotiations) and Russia acts like they just found a new best friend.
"Our response is that we will not accept any negotiations as long as an entity called Israel exists.”
Wow. They just said what is usually unspoken. That tells me that they clearly see their position as unassailable and intend to drive the monster into the sea.
They have no other choice. They finally learned their lesson that "negotiations" and "cease fires" are just jew con games and this is a fight to the death.
Really. Except for the Sumy region, Russian forces seem to have fallen into a collective coma. Meanwhile, Storm Shadows strike Russia with impunity. How much of this is Russia going to take?
Declassified UK recently ran an article that talked about 22 US bases in the UK, however they're usually referred to and signed up as RAF (Royal Air Force) bases. Afaik they've mostly been around since the end of WW2 and the 1950's Cold War era. The article further remarks on ambiguity regarding ownership of individual bases, with, for example the USA laying claim to owning a number of buildings etc. Some of the readers here may well have heard recent mutterings about Starmer saying he wouldn't allow the Americans to use their bases for an illegal War etc. All muddy water stuff. Besides the 22 there are also, allegedly "Secret bases" somewheres. Whichever, were the Russians to emulate Mr Larijani's response to the hosting Gulf Statelets there's no shortage of targets over here.
Given that the UK military seems to be …uuumm, highly abbreviated we would then ask the question who or what actually occupied said bases, particularly the RAF sites.
Just what I was thinking - we don't have enough numbers to occupy that many bases - it would have to be Americans. Although in the future, perhaps Russians?
Just because you aren't hearing it in the MSM, doesn't mean nothing is happening. The Russians continue to advance, slowly, deliberately, chewing up the Ukie army. It's just that the Iranians have taken the headlines (partly because it is something new, and partly that the West is trying to direct attention elsewhere to hide the shame of losing out to Russia).
The situation in Iran does seem to throw a light on Russian struggles in Ukraine.
Supposedly Russian attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure were supposed to badly damage Ukraines ability to carry on. There turns out to be 0 sign of that being the case.
We have 2 days of very large AFU drone attacks deep inside Russia. Somehow the Ukrainian airforce can put aircraft in the air and launch cruise missile attacks. The Ukrainians counter attack along the Zaporozhia front - perhaps fake, perhaps not, but Russian sources report a wall of drones assaulting them.
After 4 years of fighting Russia has really done nothing to impose anything other than monetary cost on the west. On the other hand, Russia itself has not suffered material damage except in loss of lives at the front.
In 11 days of the Iran war, Iran has suffered extensive material damage, but seems to be beginning to impose actual costs on the west. Perhaps not costs in lives, but economic, political and diplomatic costs beyond money. And money is no cost at all when USD can be borrowed into existence in whatever quantities that are needed.
Very well said. Yet, if you listen to Ritter, Martyanov, Johnson, etc, the Russians are diplomatic grossmeisters and their approach in the Ukraine is good. What is the plan exactly? Does anyone have an inkling? 250k dead Russians if not more, and double that are injured.
Why are the lights on in Kiev and other ukie cities? Why are western clowns, from celebs to politicians allowed to enter Kiev and tour it? Why are the railroads and bridges of many ukie cities and border areas still functional? And why are the Russians still talking to kushner and witkoff?
Interesting sentiment expressed in another comment section: isreal wont end in a cataclysm so much as the young people leave and the old folks simply die. Something’s the near future can be simpler than we imagine, although rarely…..
Hard to take your reply seriously when you use playground name calling and don't just identify what you mean. Try to write intelligently for those unfamiliar with your colloquial prattle.
One has to say; Bravo Iran! However there is a grave threat looming. The psychopaths will not go quietly into the night. They have nukes and they are crazy enough to use them.
The talk has always been about a zionist Plan B if they get thrown out of the Levant, that they would establish a new homeland in Argentina (Patgonia or Southern Argentina) - the Plan is called the Andinia Plan. Zioinists call it a conspiracy theory (which frankly gives it some credit to my mind).
Palestinian Pain Tolerance dwarfs anything their isreali “neighbors” could dream of. The fuggin live in ruble already, and once the parasites move out and fade away they can rebuild. Prolly without a TrumpHotelCasino on the beach, but perhaps that’s for the best….
- vessels inside the gulf, laden, and trying to get out
- vessels outside the gulf, full of economically critical containers, trying to get in, diverting to oman and Indian ocean ports for now
- new vessel bookings ARE ZERO. No new boats have set destination for inside the Gulf since the start of the blockade
- the Gulf economies are container economies. Air cargo is fine food fresh food and medicine, but the actual economies, including oil and gas, rely heavily on shipped material. In a matter of 2 or 3 weeks, production operations will start winding down.
These countries are not configured for seige warfare. The only thing they are basic in is hydrocarbons, everything else needs to be brought in.
If the Hormuz isnt opened very soon, we are going to face a global economic catastrophe. Again, its 20% of global oil, 20% of global LNG, a major share of Asian LPG, global aluminum, urea, sulfur, and so on.
Trump can rot in the dustbin of history. What a retarded war
And I wrote about his quagmire a couple of days ago.
Interesting that Iran sees it the same way. They will sting like a bee and dance like a butterfly (or more likely a donkey). But the Gorilla will soon be so agitated that he makes an mistake.
All Gulf bases destroyed, allies attacked with impunity, Straits blocked to unfriendly traffic, oil and gas prices skyrocketing, Iranians delivering terms. Looks like a mistake, sounds like a mistake. Perhaps I'm mistaken?
Maybe, however since 1973 every US administration has started strong until reminded that Israel plans to nuke multiple capitals across the globe should someone take them out. It has been to forestall this, first, that the dane-geld has been paid. Some degree of personal blackmail and cult or sect alignment is the backup, and raw corruption a fallback. Untangling the Gordian Knot would mean a very secret, very simultaneous and miraculously successful decapitation of each and every Israeli warhead... Tricky when your country is shit through with spies.
No, I'm referring to the Schrodinger's Nuclear Genie act that Israel has had going on, and is the worst-kept secret in geopolitics. Israel was within inches of losing the Yom Kippur war, showed its hand to the US, and asked Nixon if he wanted to watch nukes fly. Nixon blinked, and the massive airlift that followed has remained the policy of presidents ever since: keep the Israeli nukes in their silos and never acknowledge existence on the record because military support to a nuclear-armed non-signatory of the NPT is literally illegal by US law.
"Maybe, however since 1973 every US administration has started strong until reminded that Israel plans to nuke multiple capitals across the globe should someone take them out." You mean, like Washington DC, London, Brussels, etc. Why would Israel do such a kindness for us?
We would get so lucky as to include London. But Moscow and DC, sure. Intended point being to trigger a nuclear WW3 with assured response scenarios, OR to trigger such a global revulsion scenario that the only option left will be to literally destroy Israel and the Jewish people and assume ownership of the mantle of the "next holocaust".
The problem, of course, is that once the Sampson Option is exercised and decision-makers wake up to the minute afterwards, they no longer HAVE to respond as expected (incinerate the rest of the world and/or Israel) because the deterrent is consumed--they can just... not. There are other options, and revealing the Ba'alist architecture of worship and cult control points to less all-consuming responses; if the public understand the nature of the guilty parties, those can be judged and punished while avoiding "innocents" (air quotes because democratic mechanisms fuzz the line).
But, it's all the same flawed logic as ended up with the administration "surprised!" that Iran responded forcefully to the assassination of their leadership; or "surprised!" that Russia actually SMO-invaded Ukraine.
Once a decision exists that real war is inevitable--let alone actual, the singularity of control (deterrence) collapses and takes with it all architecture of uncertainty such that national pain is accepted. This is why bombing campaigns are ineffective beyond killing specific people or blowing up specific things that may have a material impact on the war effort. See: Britain, Germany, Vietnam, etc.
It's not hard to plan. It's hard to implement a plan. "No plan survives first contact" is a worthy maxim and quote for a reason.
Disabling Israel's nuclear deterrent is conceptually easy: track at all times half a dozen missile subs specifically designed to be untrackable, while ensuring you see every last possible movement of the maybe 300+ coffin-sized devices between the network of bases in Israel. Easy-peezy, but also ensure the Israelis don't catch on and try to trick you; it's not like their motto (as Totality451 reminds) centralizes deception in warfare....
This is why disabling a country's nuclear arsenal quickly amounts to "we nuke them first--alot".
The Brookings Institute policy paper from 2009 'Which path to Persia' explicitly details the strategy of using Israel as a proxy & pretext for US involvement in the Chapter titled 'Leaving it to Bibi'
Israel gets the blame (& retaliation), US gets an excuse, international opinion is manipulated.
Iran was last on the list of mid east countries to be invaded even before Iraq 2003, see Gen Wesley Clarks infamous interview - it just took a bit longer than 5 yrs.
they didn't cause anti-semitic to do so. Thanks to the HC. But then again: HC was forced down our throats by governments and media. Mostly people bought and paid for lacking common sense (Operation Mocking Bird, NGO's). And we were and are not allowed to challenge. They used guilt to control our minds. They never used guilt to control our minds regarding the 27 million Russians, or in general the other 54 million victims of WW2. I wonder how, I wonder why
Even the US doesn't know the truth, but what you read on this blog is the truth, simply because you read and believed it? Facts, man, facts. We don't know them, but Iran's military health still seems to be holding up, so doubting the figures is justified.
I came across this link via his X post that sbd shared with me. Also interesting post about US MO regarding the sunk Iranian ship, off the coast of Sri Lanka.
"JUST IN: A Sri Lankan court just handed 84 dead Iranian sailors back to Iran despite a US diplomatic cable ordering the opposite.
The Galle Chief Magistrate’s Court ruled today that the bodies of 84 identified crew members from the IRIS Dena, torpedoed by a US submarine 40 nautical miles off Sri Lanka’s coast on 4 March, be handed over to Iranian Embassy officials for repatriation. Thirty-two survivors were rescued by the Sri Lankan Navy. Eighty-seven were killed. Eighty-four have been identified, stored under refrigeration at Karapitiya Hospital, and are now legally released to Tehran.
Five days ago, a leaked US State Department cable told Sri Lanka to do the opposite.
The cable, dated 6 March and obtained by Reuters, was authored by US Charge d’Affaires Jayne Howell at the Embassy in Colombo. It explicitly urged Sri Lankan authorities not to repatriate the 32 Dena survivors or the 208 crew of the second Iranian vessel IRIS Bushehr, docked at Trincomalee. The stated goal: “minimize Iranian attempts to use the detainees for propaganda.” Howell briefed the Israeli ambassador to India and Sri Lanka that there were “no plans to repatriate the crew to Iran.” The Israeli envoy asked about “engagement with the crew to encourage defection.”
You think you've got a scoop? This affair has been known since last week. It caused a scandal because this Iranian ship was disarmed after participating in a meeting, a show at the invitation of India in which, it seems, the USA also participated.
The only thing that matters is who can hold out longer. Whether you can hold your breathe for 1 min or 5 min, all that matters is that you can hold it for longer than the guy you are trying to drown
I would argue its much bigger than that . Look at who's supplying weapons and logistics too . India and Turkey are playing both sides along with minor European and Asian countries . They won't pick a side until a winner emerges...
The only reason I can think of for it not having been done already is holding it as a further escalation option. Meaning that things are panicky enough in TelAviv…for now.
America lives in a bubble reality of its own making--one that is largely indifferent to (or supportive) of the wars of aggression and other crimes that the USA perpetuates in general.
However, when Karma comes home to roost and America's bubble reality is burst, it will be more spectacular than the Titanic and Hindenburg combined.
It will be very interesting to watch America get "shocked and awed."
The USA (or its puppet masters) own the media and can censor whoever they like . The control the finance and hedge funds , and are above the law . Reality can only return with accountability and that's going to hurt . Plenty of them have been building bunkers recently and that would indicate that they were planning the current shenanigans for some time.
Unlikely the USA will be shocked and awed via mass
Bombings or something. We sit between two massive oceans. More likely, our economy will collapse and our country will devolve into factional infighting .
>If the Hormuz isnt opened very soon, we are going to face a global economic catastrophe
Lets hope that will happen soon.
Lets hope the consumer society would collapse, but I think a thermonuclear war would be needed to achieve that goal. I am very pessimistic as Iran has no nuclear weapons. The elimination of Homo Sapiens, or even better, a reduction of Homo Sapiens to stone age level would give space to other species and save the planet Earth.
I guess it's too much to hope for that you'll be intellectually honest enough to admit that your plan to eliminate all humans or to have them all live a Stone Age lifestyle only applies to humans other than you.
Future Primitive is an unequivocal assertion of the superiority of the hunter-gatherer lifestyle.[3] Zerzan rejects the thesis that time and technology are neutral scientific realities, arguing instead that they are carefully constructed means of enslaving people.[4] He cites as examples the computer and the Internet, which he maintains have an atomizing effect on society, creating novel divisions of labour, demanding ever increasing efficiency and portions of leisure time.[4] Life prior to domestication and agriculture, Zerzan argues, was predominantly one of "leisure, intimacy with nature, sensual wisdom, sexual equality and health".[5] In the Paleolithic era, as The Wall Street Journal summarized Zerzan's thesis, "people roamed free, lived off the land and knew little or nothing of private property, government, money, war, even sexism. In the wild, the shackles of civilization weren't necessary, as people were instinctively munificent and kind, the primitivist argument goes.
Ecology? You're a nutcase, so run for president in the US next time, you'll be elected. Otherwise, retire to a cave, live in the Stone Age, and paint cave walls with your hands and your poop.
When you say "we" are going to face a global economic catastrophe, you mean the Western nations that have sucked Israel for so long we've lost our lips. Because China and Russia and those they supply with oil and LNG apparently will be fine. And in that case if the US navy tries to take out the ridiculously named Russian "shadow fleet" we now know the American ships will be sunk.
It boggles the mind. Trillions wasted on the military that instead could have made America top-ranked in healthcare, education, transportation, R&D, and innovations that actually fix real problems.
"Because China and Russia and those they supply with oil and LNG apparently will be fine."
Upvoted because you're right overall, but, alas, the situation will be hard on China albeit being much better for Russia.
If the war reduces Iran's oil exports that will hit China, Iran's biggest customer. Russia cannot increase production fast enough to make up for a big reduction in Iranian exports to China.
A secondary effect that would be even bigger is that if the world enters a general recession that will hurt China's business model of being "the world's workshop." When the world's economy nosedives, China's exports also fall, and that really hurts the Chinese economy.
Russia initially would be making windfall profits as the only major and reliable (the US is unreliable for huge customers like India and China...) oil and gas supplier not affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But when the world's economy takes a nosedive the demand for oil and gas drops. That's what really moved oil prices down before the Iran war: US and self-imposed sanctions shot so many big economies in the head that industries closed and demand for energy plummeted. That ended up affecting Russia too, since a decline in overall demand for energy reduces Russian export sales.
A plummeting world economy is also bad for other Russian exports, about 30% of which now are various manufactured goods. Overall, Russia prefers a healthier world economy.
And you're right about all those trillions wasted on killing people when they could have been invested into making a better America. That's one big factor in how many empires have died in the past, when their expenditures on military force and protecting an over-expanded empire started eating the heart out of their societies.
Ok makes sense. It seems as though China can pivot and switch track quite efficiently, and when the effects you list do transpire I’ll be they can make moves to absorb it. Other nations who are more bogged down in corrupt bureaucracy will have a tougher time. Energy Siberia comes on line. China move into a more lean economy configuration. Storm can be weathered. The nosedive was always gonna happen and anyone with the mental means knows this. Of course everyone wants a global economic environment they can profit from.
Its about self reliance . The cost of transport will eventually impact on where everything comes from . Local will become easier and cheaper as the cost rises . The disposable items will decline in favour of lasting quality . Everything we use has an energy cost and that will rule going forward . Energy intensive technology will wither when its costs and availability exceed its utility .
Well, I hear you and obviously you're right that energy costs play a big role in what people do. But they're not remotely the only costs, and how those energy costs affect an extremely interwoven and complex network of production and consumption networks is not always obvious.
Consider this, for an example: "The disposable items will decline in favour of lasting quality ."
That's not a conclusion that follows from an assumption of a rise of energy costs of transportation. Why is that? Because transportation is often the very lowest cost involved in the production of an item. Producing goods of higher quality isn't free, you know, and producing those higher quality goods often involves dramatically higher energy costs than production of disposable goods.
Do a thought experiment: what is the energy cost of producing a fine porcelain plate as compared to a disposable plastic picnic plate? What percentage of the cost of that porcelain plate is energy compared to other costs of production? What is the energy cost of washing that plate (hot water heating, electricity to run the dishwasher, etc.) which you don't have just throwing the plastic plate away?
What are the hidden costs if you decide not to recycle the plastic plate but buy a porcelain plate and wash it by hand to avoid running the dishwasher? Are you a serf whose time costs nothing? The energy cost of having competent, productive people doing manual labor is huge - it's an opportunity cost where not using their skills cascades down through an economy that's dumbed down with utterly stupid and wasteful processes.
So what is the energy cost of bringing that near-zero cost plastic plate from China where it is produced? Even given the near-zero cost of the disposable plate, the transportation cost is insignificant. Even if it cost ten times as much to move that ultra-large container ship from China to the US or to the EU it still would be insignificant. That's why disposable things like plastic plates are made in China but still are profitable to ship to the US and EU.
There are uses for fossil fuels where hydrocarbon fuels are difficult to replace, but mass shipment across oceans isn't one of them. For that matter large volume transport on rails or even interstate trucking can adapt. Rail transport is highly amenable to electrification, as is scheduled interstate trucking. Fixed electric infrastructure is an ideal consumer for centralized, large scale electricity production using nuclear plants. Likewise, super-huge container ships are also an ideal use for marine nuclear plants. Fuel it once and it can keep going back and forth across the Pacific as much as you want for 50 years.
All that, of course, assumes that the nuclear power provided isn't designed and operated incompetently. Given the idiotcratic decrease in IQ seen in governments these days in the West you can't take that for granted.
Ah, one last thing... this isn't true either: "Local will become easier and cheaper as the cost rises." That's only true if your "local" production can be accomplished using only inputs that also are local. If you have to bring anything at all in to make what it is you want, then you still have transportation costs.
Local production using purely local inputs means a medieval level of technology. Actually, it's worse than that since even in medieval times there was extensive trade over great distances for inputs that could not be found locally. Heck, that even goes back to neolithic times, where fine flint and other materials would be traded great distances.
So no, unless you're happy living like a medieval serf carving your own wooden spoons using flint you've found in your back yard and have knapped to make your own knives, let's not be tempted by wishful thinking about higher energy costs resulting in some "everything is made locally with lasting quality" utopia.
The only energy that carries no cost to the individual is their own . Nuclear energy is probably the way forward , but it still requires large energy inputs mostly supplied by fossil fuels .Mining , refining and transport to name three . Ships can have nuclear power but would need refuelling every 12 to 18 months , and maintenance is still required and this is considerable when operating in a marine environment . Electrification of transport is likewise problematic - the resources required (copper especially) would need massive increases in production of the required metals and energy supply . We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources . You stated that a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources , but the plastic must be manufactured , molded and transported all of which require energy just to throw it away after one use. In the past we had local industry that would make the everyday items that we all use but with the rise in machinery manufacturing using cheap energy that capability is gone . In most countries manufacturing is almost gone (to China...) and the skill sets are too .
"The only energy that carries no cost to the individual is their own ."
That's only true if the individual's time and physical effort is valueless, hence my question if you're (using the generic "you" and not meaning only you specifically) a serf whose time costs nothing.
Time is the most precious resource any individual has, and there is a huge opportunity cost to wasting that time on activities of lesser value than those which the individual could be doing.
Should Beethoven have spent his time plowing a field to grow his own food instead of writing immortal music and paying a small part of what he earned doing that to buy his food? Heck no.
So, if for some reason Einstein had thought his own personal energy had no cost should he have become a potter to throw his own plates and mugs instead of paying a tiny part of what he earned by transforming physics to cover the energy cost of some industry doing that for him? Again, heck no.
"Nuclear energy is probably the way forward , but it still requires large energy inputs mostly supplied by fossil fuels .Mining , refining and transport to name three ."
I was pointing out that mass transportation is particularly amenable to using nuclear energy. If the cost of hydrocarbon fuels jumps to the equivalent of $500 per barrel of oil, then relatively static industries like nuclear fuel production will be less hurt than activities where hydrocarbons are essential, because they too are amenable to electrification. The mostly static infrastructure of mining, refining and transportation of nuclear fuel is very well suited to electrification and much of it, like rail transport, is already electrified in countries that do it well.
"We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources . You stated that a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources , but the plastic must be manufactured , molded and transported all of which require energy just to throw it away after one use."
Ah, as I gave in my example of a disposable plastic plate compared to a porcelain plate, the costs of creating non-disposable products are very high in energy. That's the main reason people use disposable products, because they are cheaper.
By the way, if you read my posting attentively you'll see at no point did I state "a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources." On the contrary, I stated a disposable plastic plate costs very little and "the transportation cost is insignificant."
What you wrote originally discussed only transportation costs. That's an error, to consider only transportation costs. I pointed out that producing non-disposable goods is not cost free, and they require lots of energy costs.
The question is not whether a plastic plate has no costs associated with it, the question is how those costs compare to creating a non-disposable product that replaces it. You went even further out on a limb claiming that higher energy costs would result not only in non-disposable products, but higher quality ones and made locally as well. That's taking two additional long strides out on a limb that has no demonstrable substance to it.
So let's take a closer look at the costs of making a porcelain plate. That requires mining, cleaning/preparation, and transportation of suitable clay, which is not conveniently found in every hobbit's shire. That takes energy. The production of porcelain is highly energy intensive given the kilns it requires, and that's not even counting all the energy cost of inputs like the glazes and coloring used. In a modern porcelain factory there are massive numbers of machines to generate and apply the designs, all of which require power, and you need a fair number of people as well, which are energy intensive. Porcelain is heavy and must be packaged properly to not break in transport. All that drives up yet more energy costs, like cutting down all the wood that goes into making cartons and other packing materials.
Plastic plates are cheap because their feedstock is oil, which is shipped in bulk in zillion gallon tankers that can transport it halfway around the planet for nearly free (that's the magic of bulk ocean transport economy of scale), and it can be transformed into polyethylene or whatever by being pumped through nearly totally automated facilities that can handle huge volume. The resulting pellets are light and are easily formed into plastic plates by molding machines that can stamp out zillions of them in high volume. They're very light to transport and require no finicky packaging.
Add just a tiny bit of effort and you can produce a polymer plate that isn't disposable but will serve you for decades and is almost impossible to break or chip, unlike the porcelain or higher quality "ceramic" plates that anybody with a cabinet full of mis-matched IKEA plates can tell you will chip and break with regularity.
"In the past we had local industry that would make the everyday items that we all use"
Really? You must live in some really exceptional hobbit shire that in the past had local industry, that without any external inputs could manufacture smart phones, computers, televisions, automobiles, microfiber fabrics, GoreTex or similar waterproof shoes and clothing, electricity, espresso makers, LED light bulbs, and all the other everyday items that we all use.
If you come back down to earth on this planet, the reality is that no, after medieval times not remotely has there ever been a past in which local industry made all the everyday items that we all used. Everything beyond medieval, serf-level subsistence depended on trade and deliveries of products and necessary inputs from non-local sources. As I pointed out in my prior essay, even in neolithic times key inputs like trade in high quality flint were non-local.
"but with the rise in machinery manufacturing using cheap energy that capability is gone"
In point of fact, much of the energy that goes into living above the level of a medieval serf is not cheap energy, and that's one reason why economy of scale using machinery manufacturing has risen, because such manufacturing uses energy far more efficiently than individual manual labor.
Forget that and you can starve millions of people, as the Chinese leadership did during the Great Leap Forward when somebody making the same "local" arguments you did convinced that leadership that China could produce the steel it needed by commanding everybody to make a backyard blast furnace to make steel locally.
It turns out that was a cretinously stupid idea that could only get traction by people who had a toxic mix of incredibly bad education, low IQ and near zero common sense. Backyard blast furnaces are orders of magnitude less energy efficient (as well as being less everything else efficient...) than giant, centralized blast furnaces. Trying to "leap forward" by making national levels of steel in home furnaces just causes such an extraordinary waste of resources, including energy, that it ends up starving people.
Can you operate a backyard furnace to make steel for some purposes? Sure. Japanese swordsmiths did exactly that for hundreds of years to make small, artisanal amounts of steel from ore to make swords. It's a huge amount of effort, staggeringly wasteful of energy and other resources, but it does result in a lump of iron shot through with carbon impurities that can subsequently be hand-refined into steel with a thousand or so hours of effort, again at huge energy costs. If the swordsmith gained enough skill through a long and energy-costly apprenticeship, he could make a sword that is unmatched through the ages for its composite structure.
But you can't make enough steel for even a small bridge doing that, and you can't even make enough steel for something "we all use," to apply your phrase. You can only make enough steel for a sword for somebody, a samurai, who keeps many other people in bondage living an enserfed lifestyle so he can be the one person among them who can have a sword made of such steel, wear a fine silk kimono, and so on.
The reason manufacturing has gone to China has nothing to do with the cost of energy. It has everything to do with Western populations becoming fat, stupid, lazy, incompetent, and socialist fools while the Chinese have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps by being industrious, diligent, studious, pragmatic people who reward enterprise and hard work.
One last thing... (almost forgot) about this: ""We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources ."
No, that's completely false. That assumes that people will be so idiotically incompetent that they will not take means to ensure ample energy for their rising use. Well, that may be the case in the low-IQ West, as the EU is demonstrating for us in real time, but it's certainly not the case in countries run by intelligent, competent leaders like Russia and China.
As has been well known by intelligent people since the 1940's, nuclear energy can provide more than enough energy to meet "rising use" for many centuries into the future. It just has to be applied competently. So sure, that may result in a Darwinian extinction of economies run by incompetent fools (as Germany is demonstrating in real time) but that's their problem.
Electrification provides a way forward into the future for many centuries if nuclear energy, done competently, is used to provide the electricity. It basically solves all transportation use problems except for large distance, large capacity air travel. If you don't waste hydrocarbons where they are not needed, saving them for air transport, there are enough hydrocarbon fuel resources for a few centuries of use for air transport. Beyond that you can use synthetic fuels manufactured using endless, low cost, nuclear energy.
I wonder if it has occurred to any republicans that the trillions spent on “defense” is really just spending money to provide jobs that aren’t created by private industry. It’s basically just communism.
30% of global fertilisers go through the strait with planting season around the corner so expect global food prices to rise this year which may cause massive instability in many of the poorer nations.
Yeah, ain't it funny how the people who pilloried Russia for shutting down Odessa and its grain exports are silent about the US shutting down fertilizer exports.
If you sink a few ships in the straits shallowest places , that will close the straits for months if not years . This would be high irony if they were USA warships.
We are talking here an equation with hundreds of variables. It is remarkable that Orange threw in the mass murder of the civilian population of Iran very openly, as the first instrument that came to mind for him. It says something about how his brain is wired; he is turning into the ultimate Neanderthal at the very front of our eyes. MAGA, together with the midterm elections and likely Republican majorities in Congress and Senate were all thrown into the bonfire. Those have never been the true considerations for the billion dollar election. What we see now and during the next ten months is what he really wanted.
The fact that Iran is able to scare the ships away from the Strait of Hormuz tells us that the constant bombing was unable to destroy their defenses. The Persian military guy in that video doesn’t really sound submissive at all. There is very visible pressure on Orange and he has a tendency to crack and turn. Israhell crying like a baby for his mammy for a pause and it is unlikely to happen on their order.
The aircraft carriers are staying 600 and more miles away, playing it safe. A single mistake with a food stop can hurt them badly. China was already negotiating concerning hypersonic ship killer missiles and nobody knows if they sent any. Since they share a short land border with Afghanistan they can actually bribe the Afghans to open a land route and carry supplies to the Iranian borders with trucks. US losses but mainly economic losses for half the planet will multiply and Orange will not be able or willing to pay for that. All the consequences we are looking at now were easy to calculate before the war already but there was an overwhelming need to get into this conflict and that was most certainly not American interests.
Putin is offering to safe keep Iran’s highly enriched Uranium but something tells me he is not going to get it.
Kazakhstan has a giant territory with very small population, a sizable Russian minority and around 3,000 miles of shared border with Russia. That is a very long border to defend if they get into any hostility there with Russia. So they are talking to Orange and Company this and that, searching for some sort of guarantee for the future. The US idea is to raise some sort of Asian NATO line on the Southern border of Russia to contain the Big Bad Russian Teddy Bear.
Absolutely agreed, geopolitically speaking the idea is absurd. It is just difficult to decide anymore when politicians are driven by genuine concern for their own people, looking at real or imaginary dangers or they are just searching for the next opportunity to purchase a golden toilet.
I think they have some "defense" agreement with the UK, and western interests are heavily invested in their oil sector. Even their capital Astana (named so quite recently for unclear reasons, some even calling it "Satana") was rebuilt by western interests. And their leaders are weak but corrupt. It's often completely overlooked in geopolitical analysis, but there is a lot going on
There is a rail way line from China to Turkey and then the EU countries. The Caspian Sea is crossed by ferries to Baku. The capacity is very good. If China wants to send goods to Iran, they can use this line, there are enough harbours on the Iranian side of the Caspian Sea.
The reason I was guessing on the direct, shortest route from China through Afghanistan was because China will likely opt for a covert operation, they will not want to allow for the count of every item they ship on a well observed open rail network through Kazakhstan. Afghanistan is a tribal land, they have a long history of doing this thing. Doing US operations they were well known to ship gasoline with trucks for the US Army from the Pakistan border. It is true the shipping was sometimes up to a thousand dollars per gallon to extreme remote areas but America was willing to print paper to pay that. It did not make too much difference as the paper mostly never showed in US circulation. China will be motivated to keep shipments secret, they will try to avoid sanctions as a punishment for the act but they will not want Iran to be subjugated.
Mohamed Ali devised the rope-a-dope strategy to defeat the unbeatable George Foreman and that is how I see Iran playing it.
Each blow US lands weakens it (US) and all Iran has to do is soak them up and survive.
As for Israhell, it is being demolished and its capacity to project force is being diminished so that local players (Hezbollah) can join in the game plan.
If Irans goal is to remove the entity Israhell from the region, then Israhell will respond in a manner befitting existential survival.
Much of the world appraises that the short term pain is worth the long term gain!
Trump a genocidal maniac with no consideration of ‘the other’. Genocide in the form of famine awaits many countries who will be gravely affected by the demolishment of the GCC and the loss of necessary oil based products for many countries and the Strait closure will lead to the starvation of many indentured servants and slaves in Qatar and other emirate countries. This feels like a continuation of the Covid debacle in a different form - depopulation at an exponential rate will be the result. All for greater Israel or Israel first a country of 7,000 people - what hubris and our Orange man succumbed to their demands putting the whole world at risk to feed his narcissistic needs.
Watching this insanity is very painful - this is real life not a video game or a reality show.
A Narcissistic, psychopath has no conscience- DJT operates on a totally different frequency than most - no guilt, no regret just focuses on satisfying his every whim- Ukraine, Syria, Greenland, Venezuela, Iran - let’s make a deal and con the world - Epstein is old news- distract, obfuscate, lie, murder - this madman is only interested in his place in history-he has attained infamy and no one, no one in our government will stop him but maybe, just maybe Iran will.
Trumpytoes may have no conscience, but he has a ego; and so he doesn't want the truth about his indiscretions to surface.
I suspect that the remnant of the US political system will bring him down very shortly, as his adventures in wonderland become increasingly disastrous for the whole world.
Remnant of the US political system has been on life support for some time so which part of the government- the ‘deep state, AIPAC, Zionist donors, imbedded Mossad agents, oligarchs will intervene. We are no longer the country we thought we were, we were captured over the past 80 years by Israel and the Zionist lobby- power is no longer in ‘our’ hands.
Their border with Afghanistan is almost 600 miles. And that with Pakistan is about the same. Pakistan would be a better choice as they have friendly relations. But Russia is the greatest possible source of supplies - food, weapons, energy.
Pakistan is a bit busy sometimes to become a US proxy in the area also. They are presently running a little hostility with India and Afghanistan as well. The Afghan route is the harder but the Afghans will do anything for some small arms and hard cash. It is a country where corruption is a fundamental way of existence.
Probably not because the Shkval has a very small range, like 7-15km depending on variant. Can Iranian sub get that close, doubtful, but who knows. Outfitting them on naval drones would probably be much more effective. Or they may have some kind of land based adaptation to shoot them from the shore just into the Strait itself. But hitting US ships farther away seems unlikely.
Iran could have explored the option of semi autonomous loitering type supercavitating torpedo drones, based on Russia's Poseidon types, but with smaller warheads. Who knows..
That seriously would be a game changer Don. Loitering good and deep off the Coast of Diego Garcia awaiting Naval assets rocking up for resupply. Might not even need to sink them, just damage the propellers or steering gear would present a massive headache.
I dont know the names and specs of any of this shit these guys claim are the next big things. Maybe they are, but I've been hearing of the next biggest thing ever for years.
As far as defeats. I blame naive neocons. An AK is a fine rifle but I prefer high explosives. Tons of em.
Or are they underwater missiles, ie not a propeller driven torpedo, an actual missile propelled by jet engines generating thrust, giving it very much longer range and speed than a typical torpedo.
As we have seen so much new military technology (new physic principles to quote VVP) within the last year this could be possible.
Does Iran have drone boats like what Ukraine has been using to harass Sevastopol and Novorossisyk? That technology would seem to be well suited for harassing Strait shipping.
Iran should demand only the heads of the entire trump, hegseth and netanyahu bloodlines on golden platters in exchange for a ceasefire. With apples in their mouths of course.
If their victory is as complete and comprehensive as seems to be the case, then Iran should demand that Donnie comes to Iran in person to sign the Instruments of Surrender.
Going ugly. And what could you expect when you twice negoiate with Iran and then suddenly strike their leadership for decapitation? I am surprised they didnt learn from what the Israelis did to Hamas and Hizbollah.
The ”fog of War” has never been greater than just now regarding the means we posses to monitor the effects of the ongoing fight. The few videos coming out and satellite photos are not enough to conclude who is most hurt and how the exchange will end. The censorship and disinformation is at very high level.
According to Trumpf 5000 strike missions has been completed inside Iran, thats is just 1/8 of the 40 000 made against Iraq prior to the ground invasion that lasted only 100 hour.
So we can be pretty sure that Iran is not obliterated but badly hurt. If they have anticipated massive air-strikes and learned from other wars they have dispersed their forces enough.
Iran has launched 2000-3000 drones and missiles and many of them at the same target. If they have had 10% success or 30% is not important because they only represent 200-600 hits on target equaling about maximum 100-200 tons of bombs. Its not deadly.
In Desert Storm US dropped 88 000 tons of bomb over Iraq which is the same amount Israel has given to the Gazan people. Thats destruction!
This War, like the good old SMO in Ukraine, is a War of perception. If people sitting on our money perceive the War they way they fear most things are going to get real ugly. If US&Israel are perceived as losers they will lose no matter what Orange Man is boasting.
If someone dare to expose what destruction, if any, Iran has caused in Israel the opinion may pressure Netanyaho to either cave in or nuke.
Trumpf has soon run out of arguments and will have to make something to look like the godsend Messiah he thinks he is. It could well be nukes.
US is too big to fail so they rather goes with a boom.
North Korea has no idea. Its never used nukes civilians. America nuked the Japs. And of course, the US wrote the history. I mean narriative. Thats the way it works. Nobody is itching to lose a city or two for the NORKS.
Iran kills an awful lot of women for being humanists, Frank. Not to mention the general treatment f women. Beating. Stoning. Disappearing. Sexually mutalating. Etc.
Trump is killing "dual use" Mullahs. nice guys for the camera, brutal military commanders in their spare time.
You are a liar and I don't know what you gain by doing so.
You obviously know nothing about Iran and of their political, social system.
So remember, talking BS-points that other people plant in your head has nothing to do with thinking, it's a pathetic attempt to appear like you have something to say.
No. But it is better than the neocon idea of building US style democracies in shit holes.
And in ny opinion will work despite the trope that it cant. WW-2 was won by bombing. Fire bombing and a tiny atom bomb.
The anti strategic bombing talking points were just 1950's. revisionist history. Even McAuthor signed on. Patton would have also if he hadn't been assassinated.
" ..., However, despite having the largest air force in the world by 1938, Soviet aeronautical design lagged behind Western advances, with a focus on heavy bombers suited for record-breaking flights rather than tactical combat aircraft ... "
Iran did learn, but not in the way a western mindset would understand.
Ali Khamenei knew exactly what might happen, but he refused to, as Bob Dylan once said "Go down under the ground, when somebody tells me that death's coming round."
He never tried to escape destruction, and wanted to die a martyr rather, as he said, than in his bed, or a hospital bed.
Whatever other delusions he may have entertained about the fake god "allah," nobody can deny that the Iranian people loved him with a passion.
Apparently he lived in rented accomodation, and refused to go underground, as he wanted to be exposed to all the same things normal everyday Iranians were exposed to.
In terms of strike density 600 hits on Israel is equivalent to c. 48 000 on Iran - The empire of chaos has a way to go yet; another 155 000 strikes and the preparation for ground forces should be complete.
Of course, such equivalences are meaningless really but do provide interesting perspectives.
Dont follow your math but perspectives are important indeed. US cant bomb Iran to submission even with nukes. One can say that area doesnt matter, it is the numbers of target. And with areas you can disperse you assets enough. 4 years of bombing Ukraine and now they are flying Flamingos deep into Russia. The latest attack against Bryansk was with british Storm Shadows and Kreml hasnt reacted at all…
What I mean is that Iran cant win over Israel if they cant destroy key infrastructures. All they can do like Ukraine is to survive and not lose.
Comment moderation in progress.
Note: All comments calling for the destruction/elimination/genocide/etc. of any one people of the earth will be deleted, with other consequent actions.
You're free to debate openly, but do not call for the death or genocide of anyone, nor use demeaning racial epithets.
Kill the Bibi!
Can't let the tail wag the dog. Trump should have canceled Bibi's life subscription when he made it clear he was dragging the US into a war with Iran.
"Bibi" has an adorable teddy bear ring to it.
Bibi the Butcher sounds more apt
Trumpty Dumpty got Epsteined and Mossad knows it. America is cooked
Jew Hitler works for me.
You're absolutely right, we need to be firm. And conversely, if we appeal to love among peoples, you give us a candy?
it is hard to avoid it, when so many on the "other" side are carrying out such things in real life. but you are correct. no reason to feed the mob mentality.
Let us pray for innocent victims of the evil empire's actions, everywhere.
Yeah, tell us later how well that empty gesture works.
That’s why the evil leaders in Iran (who willfully murder their own people by the tens of thousands) need to be stopped. Oh wait you like those guys right?
No. We don't think the war is a good idea. I think it looks more and more as if we are right.
Um, can we slang whole NATIONALITIES if we leave "race" out of it? Asking for a friend...
congrats, good move
I agree some moderation is called for. yes, people enraged by the actions of Israel/US may fling death wishes upon perpetrators, but it is not wise and certainly not prudent.
Too much of that and the site itself, now quite popular may start receiving unwanted attention.
That said, nothing to stop us from weaving certain scenarios that are less than kind or merciful to evil doers, right?
Thank you. The last thing this world needs is more hate.
Zion dons entire reason for being made president is this attack on Iran do his chabad tunnel rat Jew masters.
What are the gains so far for the American people?
So far... A much lower probability of Iran regime sending a nuclear explosive here or elsewhere.
Did you get that from Faux Snooze?
didn't chess come to Europe via Persia?
Mais oui.
Our term "checkmate" is from the Persian for "The king is dead."
Eff off Zio filth. Go back to instagram.
It seems, as we expected, the Iranians were well prepared and the US thought they could bluff and bullshit their way to a win. Trump obviously has little understanding of the Iranian mindset and little understanding of strategic matters altogether. If the Iranians choose they could cripple the world economy by destroying Gulf oil production and desalination. It's quite a hand, let's hope Trump doesn't think they are bluffing. I doubt they are.
"It seems, as we expected, the Iranians were well prepared," or that the US wasn't and couldn't be. It's a clownish administration playing the tough guy with Pete, Captain America; Bessent, the man who turns lead into gold; Rubio, the Viceroy of Venezuela; and so on, all led by Taligula.
It's flabbergasting that these guys were so stupid/ill-informed that they publicly broadcast how easy this would be for the US/Israel and they've (hopefully) been totally wrong.
Maybe they simply assumed that Iran would back down and that was their calculus. Simply moronic to undertake something that may well backfire.
Lots of evidence that they weren't ill-informed, that there were people in the administration, particularly the military, that told him it would be catastrophic. Sadly, ignoring the people you should listen to isn't new.
Macgregor had a chance to ask Caspar Weinberger, Sec/Defense under Reagan, about the bombing of the US barracks in Lebanon. Weinberger said Reagan didn't consult him before sending US troops there, he was convinced by Sec/State George Schultz that it was needed "to bring peace to Lebanon and Beirut." Weinberger told Reagan after it was a done deal, "You're not going to get that in that part of the world. All we're going to be are targets." And as we know, he turned out to be exactly right.
It certainly seems weird the US would go ahead with this whole Iran operation after all the warnings out there by so many people. How could Trump not k what wet now all did? surely people in the administration, the ones known as "advisors", read the same columns we all did, including this one. There were reports that Admiral cain specifically advised against this course, talking directly to Trump, meaning so did others.
So what gives?
May be Trump himself had no choice? perhaps the pressures brought on him to join Israel - even as his own military chiefs cautioned against it - were too strong to resist?
No matter how I look at this, even considering Trump motivated by a need to take atten off the wall-to-wall Epstein scandals, taking Bibi pressure into account and perhaps losing some of his own reasoning abilities, the simple calculus of risk/benefit should have given him a pause. Something doesn't add up - there either were more factors behind the scenes we are not aware of, or - as a last resort - I may have to go back to my Simulation hypothesis.
It’s only been two weeks and Iran is on the ropes. They only have limited weapons left but can execute on terrorist tactics for years. They are world experts on it.
If ordinary schlubs like us can work this out, how come the "best and brighest" in DC couldn't? Everyone here knows that the Iranians are the world's leading missile and drone specialists after the Russians and that they have the absolute power to close the Straits of Hormuz and destroy the global economy. How could the people in DC and Tel Aviv not predict what would happen? This question is baffling to me.
The US has the most powerful military in history. I guess they think just turning up for a fight is enough to cower their would be victims. They have failed to understand that Iran has prepared for this for decades precisely to thwart their strategies (if you can call destroying everything in sight a strategy).
It's hubris, believing their own mythology and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. The same way the decision-makers have been ignoring reality for decades.
Indeed. My sympathies for Putin also expired a few months back.
Worse, did you see what happened at the UNSC?
Russia and China abstained but did not veto the resolution condemning Iran for striking the US bases in other countries.
There was a separate resolution introduced by Russia condemning the US and Israel for their aggression. But that one was of course vetoed (who could have guessed).
So now the official UN position is that Iran is to blame for what is happening.
I want to puke...
How many times have we discussed this?
If there is no shared anti-imperialist ideology, all that is left is greed.
And if greed is what guides you, you have already surrendered to the devil. The devil being the West in this case.
The interests of the capitalist class within each country always coincide much more with the interests of the globalist Western capitalist class than with the interests of the people of that country as a whole.
It's not that complicated.
It was always going to be absolutely trivial to split and subvert BRICS. Absolutely clown show indeed.
You are correct Elana.
New boss, same as the old boss. Bigly sadly.
No populace wants Marxism, Marxist-Leninism, Socialism, Communism, Maoism und so weiter und so fort.
Only a small fraction of the workers feel attracted to it as it is anti nation, anti ethnicity, anti family, anti human nature basically.
Historically in every nation it’s just a vehicle for an ambitious bourgeois counter-elite which got all excited when they were poisoned in college.
And as soon as their takeover has succeeded, they hand themselves the same privileges the previous elite awarded itself.
It’s all bs.
Try a real religion.
Religion? Religion today is also part of the show.
There is little doubt now that well managed hybrid socialist/capitalist economies outperform in terms of standards of living for the general population.
The extent of "socialism" can be measured by the % of GDP generated by government spending. These tables are worth a look...
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-spending-to-gdp
It can also be argued that if the government ratio gets excessively high, that capital flight and a debt spiral will ensue. What the government money is spent on is also important. Social programs supporting infrastructure, food and housing will have a bigger multiplier effect than say, defense spending.
'Social programs supporting infrastructure, food and housing will have a bigger multiplier effect than say, defense spending.'
Only infra spending out of that list raises productivity and thus wealth (and helps pay the interest on rising gov debt).
And infra investing is exactly what western gov's are not doing, whether they're on the left or the right. They're strangling their economies with regulation (Schumpeter's prediction).
Europe not only cannot get AI off the ground because of it, new neighborhoods cannot be built and businesses cannot be connected to electricity grids as Europe saves the planet by deconstructing its physical economies. The investment that IS being done is preparing electric grids for even more renewable energy…Making them even more unstable, unreliable and the electricity even more expensive.
The UK, NL, DE etc are openly preparing their populations for large scale black outs while the Nordics, just 2, 3 years after connecting to the continental electric grid, are looking for a way out because of instability and higher prices.
European gov’s and the EU (our future Total State) hope they can kick the can as long as possible via low skill immigration. Which only increases the pressure on infra, housing, welfare etc.
But to Marxists all that is not a problem since they're after the collapse of the nation state in the first place. Social instability and violence are not only their go-to avenue, they’re their only avenue.
No thank you. Organised religion has been a disaster for humanity.
Are you discussing Stalinism or Maoism? Or both?
You are absolutely right and you were always right.
Putin or Xi are just capitalists, even the respective populations in China and Russia are in fact poor pathetic consumers who dream American dream. They do not want to fight consumer society, capitalism or the technological Matrix.
It is so disgusting how deep are Putin and Xi in Trump's anus.
No one wants what you want...
So everybody else is wrong...
Grow up.
>It is so disgusting how deep are Putin and Xi in Trump's anus.
With their soft tongues, not their hard dicks, let's make sure to clarify that.
And he hasn't washed it in a long time, but they are still happy.
ahahah
That is right.
But that is also what the most of Russians and Chines would do.
I do not understand how is that "American way of life" so popular, is that the only way that the elites around the world can imitate.
Simple solutions from the simple people.
BRICS isn't the military alliance you want it to be though, Elena.
BRICS is about creating a financial and economic alternative to the Western based Bretton Woods system.
If achieved, that goal will help the "jungle" and hurt the "garden" on a permanent and structural basis.
And Yes, India is completely unreliable, but we have got Turkiye who is equally dodgy.
Lots of solutions proposed by people who never passed or even studied Algebra I (two variables, one independent, one dependent). But they’re quick to propose answers for multivariate analysis based on “it’s not that complicated”.
J Huizinga Can you expand on your comment please mate?
People like True/False tests because they a 50% chance of passing. Multiple choice quiz — passing odds are smaller. I believe you were responding to Elena, who cannot see that the world goes beyond military resources and battles.
"BRICS isn't the military alliance you want it to be though, Elena.
BRICS is about creating a financial and economic alternative to the Western based Bretton Woods system."
BRICS hasn't done that, either.
Basically, BRICS is a glorified dorm room bull session.
Bric's is an economic grouping! Why on earth do you think it must be like ZNato? It's purely economic - there is no military wing in Bric's.
I'm surprised you don't know that.
I'm stunned that you think reducing dollar dependence- the means of payment - is not part of the remit of a country's trading relationship 😮
Brics was formed to foster trade between the countries of the global south - because the global south has and produces the lion's share of the worlds resources - which are priced using currencies and exchanges that exclude the producers, favouring the traders. And a huge part of that is making trade in the currencies of the producers. That would mean reducing dollar dependence as a huge byproduct.
Stands to reason - countries that trade in dollars can easily be starved of the means of trade by the western world - factually this is to keep control of world trade in western hands. The western world does not want to lose financial control - hence sanctions.
Gobsmacked you don't see this 🫤🤔
There is not a single mention of military association implied or stated in the membership of Brics. In fact it is because of that that it has gained so many interested parties. No country wants to fight in another's wars.
One can not truly separate economics from politics. In fact, just a little over 100 years ago there was no separate study of economics. It was just called political economy. And I agree with others, the BRICS should either put up or shut up.
UN is a joke and has lost any significance since CIA murdered the General secretary Hammarsjold. They had the Wehrmacht soldier Waldheim and since then more or less weak puppets.
US has never recognized UN as a factor.
It's the global police. Enforcing all countries civil rights. And rules based norms. Ask the rapidly disappearing neocons.
You can't honestly think the UN is the global police?
Sorry John. I should have labeled it satire. I'm a 'Realist' regarding IR. And close follower of Mearsheimer.
And Thucydides.
Currently reading him and Thomas Carlyle's 'The French Revolution' when not slumming on substack.
I think I understand you better now mate. 😉
Most extraordinary concept! Rules based norms. This must be something similar to the proof of God's existence according to Saint Thomas, the non caused Cause.
Now a new Thomas gifts to the world the concept of the norm based norm.
I hear that Fond of Lying and Callous are playing the same blame game for the EU...it's all Iran's fault.
Spain has closed its embassy in Tel Aviv apparently.
No. Retired the ambassador. A charge d'affaires is in place.
Thank you Luis. I appreciate the correction.
It is never Golden Billion's fault.
Oi vey 🙈
In all fairness, I think it’s part of a long term strategy by Russia/China to reign in the GCC through a security framework away from the US and Israel. Sort of what China/Russia did in the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia a couple years ago. By not entirely embarrassing the GCC, they are laying the groundwork for capitalizing on the deep anger and frustration of the gulf states for being thrown under the bus, robbed, and betrayed by the US. China and Russia are keeping that door open for the GCC. They know everybody knows who’s to blame anyway!
"China and Russia are keeping that door open for the GCC."
When the US (and West) is chased out of West Asia, Iran and the GCC will
be rebuilt by Russia/China and the power dynamics will have shifted East, ipso facto. The Iranians are fighting for ALL OF US. I bow down. Hopefully the US/Israel crime syndicate doesn't throw a hissy fit and burn it all to the ground. Tick-Tock. Patience grasshopper...big wheels keep on turning.
Iran is a terrorist nation. Everyone agrees. Even the UN.
No, everyone does not agree. This is something evident. Try to use your brain.
of course not everyone agrees . But they are.
Asymmetric warfare IS terrorism. And was everywhere from Algeria to Vietnam to the current day.
And it is hard as hell to defeat, but never wins. I've drunk a Martini and used an ATM in Hanoi. We could just sent Visa over there. Not troops. Those women working water buffalo arent people I wanna fuck with.
"Asymmetric warfare IS terrorism."
And no one has practised it longer or harder than the West.
"Asymmetric warfare IS terrorism."
Sez you.
“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.
I call sexually mutilating girls terrorism..You know, cutting off their clitoris.
And killing women for showing their face. Or whatever the IRG terrorists dont like.
And damn near everything else the dream of doing to women.
The ugly homos.
Thomas, how's the weather in Tel Aviv today? Weather reports suggest cloudy with a chance of incoming. Duck and cover mate...
Im in Miami watching the World Baseball Classic. It's great.
Jealous here Thomas. My wife and I moved to Miami after getting married (1978). We worked in restaurants and on a cruise ship. Sailed all the way to La Guaira, the port serving Caracas. I've had the best times of my life in Miami and Ft Lauderdale.
The Netflix drug movie, Griselda, captures a bit of the spirit of the time. <<link>>
YES! We were really dressed that badly then!! Gold chains and a man-clutch! I wasn't involved in the drug world but bodies dumped in canals and machine gun battles were a thing in late '70s Miami. Colombians...An exciting time to be young, in love and in wild Miami. Saturday Night Fever on the beach. We planned on starting a family and knew we couldn't afford private schools so we returned north. If you cared about education for your kids, you dodged public schools in Dade County.
Enjoy the sun, crazy traffic and the eye-candy-Latin-ladies. Powerful nostalgia enters the room-he wipes away a tear...No regrets.
https://youtu.be/wcF0A-Gy-Ng?si=IayvwfiXuva5PXMA
The US and Israel are the biggest terrorist states on earth. Go back to the MAGA fantasy world you came from.
Spewing USSA talking points just shows how ignorant that you are. Stop embarrassing yourself.
Look. Anyone that hates all jews is crazy.
Anyone who loves all jews is crazy.
Two jews, three opinions.
UN is complicit with US and Israel - expect no support from this morally bankrupt organization - the rot is deep and everywhere -
The UN position is irrelevant. It's the UN, who cares.
What has pissed me off was the EU putting sanctions on Iran for fighting back when attacked. The sheer bloody hypocrisy!
The Iranians are so damn smart. why are so many dead? Why is their oil industry on fire. Why are they begging Trump to call off Israel? Inquiring minds want to know.
Source: The Trump administration has reportedly urged Israel [in a deal with Iran] to avoid further strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, including oil facilities and the power grid, amid the escalating conflict in March 2026. The request aims to prevent a significant surge in global oil prices and to avoid destroying infrastructure that could be vital for a future, post-regime Iran.
Trump is already working on the next regime.
Please stop with the moral fagging.
I bet you will not get paid the 38 shekels the hasbara manager promised you.
Because they're fighting a superpower and it's rabid little sidekick Tom.
A bit like Vietnam.
You can't fight the USA without taking a beating, but you can beat them by fighting back.
What about this don't you understand?
You don't honestly sound like an inquiring mind. You sound like some who believes Trump and Hegseth's nonsense.
And some inquiring minds might like to know just what source are you quoting?
Sounds like another Trumpist fantasy to me, but leave out the "[in a deal with Iran]" and it becomes a more plausible sign of US desperation.
Iran has destroyed all of the US thaad long range radar systems and what it has left in terms of Patriot systems are rather poor. Not my view but that of MIT professor Ted Postol who is an expert of such systems.
Good grief. Are you really this stupid? A moron has better researching skills than you have. Dipshit zionist.
If your research skills are so great, why are all your conclusions idiotic?
>Trump is already working on the next regime.
No, he's just starting to panic about the US economy.
Dream on.
South Africa is also simply a token (founding) member. No real economy any longer since the Bolshevik Apes were handed the wheel. The whole mandella worship thing went stale a decade ago and that was really all what gave South Africa's membership to bricks any legitimacy.
Good place to park a few warships though. Look at the map.
South Africa has its own issues and they are being handled in RSA. Thank heaven we haven't been co-opted to the same Israel worship and Zionist influence that westerners have.
Is there any among your leaders who actually aren't taking money from Zionists?
It’s a sad thing when comments like “Bolshevik Apes” appears unchallenged on this Substack. As the Israelis are now finding out, the people who are regarded as subhuman are in fact just as human as anyone else and can learn to take the foul-mouthed and complacent “masters of the universe” by rude surprise when they are reminded in a manner very much not to their liking of what other humans can achieve. Meanwhile those whose standard of morality is defined by their vainglorious abuse and utter lack of empathy can be left to wallow in their own shit.
They took a first world country and promptly broke its electrical grid. And drinking water utilities.
The thieving tribalists
Who are these Bolshevik apes?
I would guess there are now many Russians saying that the Iranian way is the right way. And asking themselves things about Putin….
The 2 conflicts are not directly comparable.
To successfully push NATO back, Russia needs to win the peace in Ukraine after the hot phase of war ends. Then most of the former Soviet countries need to be neutral, not rabid Russophobic opponents.
It is a more challenging operation than what Iran faces, carrot and stick. Now the energy carrot has become a lot more significant in a negotiated outcome.
Brilliant analysis.
Why should Putin reject talking to Trump? If the sanctions are only partly lifted, then Russia can make tons of money. Money needed to import the needed goods for the war and the thriving civil economy, where the worker shortages are a real problem. And Putin did not give away a single Russian position!
Wasn't it you, to whom I wrote that at the long run (should the war progress) I see $200 (plus!) as realistic. But for the next future I expected a lot of "politics". The war will end soon - drop. This sentence was a lie - up. Oil reserves usage - drop. Oil reserves at dangerous level - up. Oil facility hit - up. Damage at oil facility is only symbolic - down. And one thing did not happen until now: the paper market, but here we could see more dramatic ups and downs. Of course, at the end of the road supply and demand will meet.
By the way, I see no massive connection between oil price and the telephone call. The call must have happened 9th or 10th of March, media reports started at the 10th of March. Here in Europe we look at Brent index, this reached its lowest point at the 9th (€76,80), so the telephone call could not be priced in. Since the 9th the price is going up, now we are close to €100. Of course WTI looks different, but your $30 is notwhere to be seen. The WTI found its bottom at around $75, down from its very, very short peak at $90 (opening at the 9th) and jumped back to some $80 and now we see $95 as daily top and 90 bottom. Please note, Brent numbers are in Euro, WTI in Dollar! And if you want to follow charts, Brent prices are for days, maybe hours, WTI is priced second per second. Question: Where is this big impact from this phone call?
Most Americans don't really give a shit over any of it. Except their sports page.
Lenin said something about capitalists willing to sell the rope they are going to be hanged with. This is what Putins behavior reminds me of. Not long ago, they even sold nuclear fuel to the pindos.
AFAIK they are still supplying despite US self-imposed restrictions.
Hey, I learned a new slur today: "Pindos". Пиндос. Who knew...
Added to gaijin, gweilo, Palagi & all the others, thanks!
Isn't Motherfucker enough. I just call them fucks or fat fucks.
@Thomas Wallace
Nah, variety is the spice of life, we need lots of pejoratives, ask any Navy guy- And some of us aren't fat.
Big noses, hairy ghosts, white boys, Greeks!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_slurs
Why calling Americans after Greek descended folks from around the Black Sea/Sea of Azov should be the perjorative for Russians slanging Americans I'm not entirely sure, needs some research.
Huh. Means "hick from the sticks" originally?
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%81
Yes. And then they will steal it back.
Or simply nuke them if they look like they could use it.
Except for Israel.
Totally agree! 5 years ago I admired Putin. 3 years ago I was quite perplexed about him and his "red lines" and shit. Now I think the guy is a dimwit and a coward surrounded by equally dimwitted "advisors" and west-loving oligarchs (like that Dmitriev POS) who dream of only licking the US and European asses and keeping their palaces in French Riviera...
I'm always amazed at the number of people who think Russia must fight all wars. Iran and Russia have not signed a military pact, so Russia isn't expected to exoend it's own blood fighting the ZUS.
So any charging to the rescue is not going to happen.
Iran is fully capable of fighting its wars on its own in any case.
Russia makes deals that benefit Russia. No one else. Just like every other country. They aren't going to fight people just because others feel they should 🙄
You are totally right about Russia.
But since Iran decided to attack he Gulf states, they can't defeat the entire west and all sunni's
All a country has to do is make a few anti-empire noises, murmur about an energy deal (while tying up that deal in endless fruitless negotiations) and Russia acts like they just found a new best friend.
I hope that Putin does retire after his current term expires. He had a great run. Now Russia needs someone younger and more aggressive.
Russia is better than it has ever been. Much better.
People can buy a fucking orange. Food. Etc.
Unlike he USSR. That couldnt even make blue jeans some immigrants jew did in 1850 California.
The USSR was a super power.
?
Got me!
It was luck. I was about to drop off asleep. 😂
"Our response is that we will not accept any negotiations as long as an entity called Israel exists.”
Wow. They just said what is usually unspoken. That tells me that they clearly see their position as unassailable and intend to drive the monster into the sea.
Let it be so.
I read ”until the Zionist entity retreats and completely collapses…”
They have no other choice. They finally learned their lesson that "negotiations" and "cease fires" are just jew con games and this is a fight to the death.
Nah, the mullahs FAFO
Nah, the US and the jews FAFO.
If what RT writes is true about the UK's role in the Briansk civilian massacre, then it is time for Russia to learn from Iran's handling of the US-Israel unprovoked full scale aggression - https://www.rt.com/russia/634491-russia-aware-uk-role-bryansk-strike/
Really. Except for the Sumy region, Russian forces seem to have fallen into a collective coma. Meanwhile, Storm Shadows strike Russia with impunity. How much of this is Russia going to take?
Declassified UK recently ran an article that talked about 22 US bases in the UK, however they're usually referred to and signed up as RAF (Royal Air Force) bases. Afaik they've mostly been around since the end of WW2 and the 1950's Cold War era. The article further remarks on ambiguity regarding ownership of individual bases, with, for example the USA laying claim to owning a number of buildings etc. Some of the readers here may well have heard recent mutterings about Starmer saying he wouldn't allow the Americans to use their bases for an illegal War etc. All muddy water stuff. Besides the 22 there are also, allegedly "Secret bases" somewheres. Whichever, were the Russians to emulate Mr Larijani's response to the hosting Gulf Statelets there's no shortage of targets over here.
Given that the UK military seems to be …uuumm, highly abbreviated we would then ask the question who or what actually occupied said bases, particularly the RAF sites.
Just what I was thinking - we don't have enough numbers to occupy that many bases - it would have to be Americans. Although in the future, perhaps Russians?
This again?
You are completely full of crap and deliberately ignorant, to boot.
Just because you aren't hearing it in the MSM, doesn't mean nothing is happening. The Russians continue to advance, slowly, deliberately, chewing up the Ukie army. It's just that the Iranians have taken the headlines (partly because it is something new, and partly that the West is trying to direct attention elsewhere to hide the shame of losing out to Russia).
Here in the 'free' Yoo Kay, RT is banned.
Of course there are several ways round, the simplest being to use a VPN.
PACO - Putin always chickens out ?
The situation in Iran does seem to throw a light on Russian struggles in Ukraine.
Supposedly Russian attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure were supposed to badly damage Ukraines ability to carry on. There turns out to be 0 sign of that being the case.
We have 2 days of very large AFU drone attacks deep inside Russia. Somehow the Ukrainian airforce can put aircraft in the air and launch cruise missile attacks. The Ukrainians counter attack along the Zaporozhia front - perhaps fake, perhaps not, but Russian sources report a wall of drones assaulting them.
After 4 years of fighting Russia has really done nothing to impose anything other than monetary cost on the west. On the other hand, Russia itself has not suffered material damage except in loss of lives at the front.
In 11 days of the Iran war, Iran has suffered extensive material damage, but seems to be beginning to impose actual costs on the west. Perhaps not costs in lives, but economic, political and diplomatic costs beyond money. And money is no cost at all when USD can be borrowed into existence in whatever quantities that are needed.
Very well said. Yet, if you listen to Ritter, Martyanov, Johnson, etc, the Russians are diplomatic grossmeisters and their approach in the Ukraine is good. What is the plan exactly? Does anyone have an inkling? 250k dead Russians if not more, and double that are injured.
Why are the lights on in Kiev and other ukie cities? Why are western clowns, from celebs to politicians allowed to enter Kiev and tour it? Why are the railroads and bridges of many ukie cities and border areas still functional? And why are the Russians still talking to kushner and witkoff?
Let's drive it into hell.
Interesting sentiment expressed in another comment section: isreal wont end in a cataclysm so much as the young people leave and the old folks simply die. Something’s the near future can be simpler than we imagine, although rarely…..
I don't think that's what they said. I think it's a deliberate mistranslation.
Pass the copium bro
Sorry, I'm out. I was just going to ask you for some.
Boom
It had a good beat...was easy to dance to. I give it a 100.
https://youtu.be/qZkAzeNvHbw?si=4-KvgnTLRqKG5re6
Third :(
Your third, seconded...
Is that in the rules?
Simplicius probably expects us to be serious here. 😎
We are. Serious about first place.
It's hard to be serious when we have clowns like Drumpf, kegbreath, Narco, and Dumkopf in the room.
Hard to take your reply seriously when you use playground name calling and don't just identify what you mean. Try to write intelligently for those unfamiliar with your colloquial prattle.
No one cares that you don't understand, nut sack.
I will always be the eleventeenth commenter!!
One has to say; Bravo Iran! However there is a grave threat looming. The psychopaths will not go quietly into the night. They have nukes and they are crazy enough to use them.
I think the Zionist settlers Achilles heel is Dimona. That will affect them too if hit. But then again, do they give a fuck?
They have the Andinia Plan to fall back on.....
We'll know the shit is about to hit the fan when the zionist cabinet all purchases tickets for a tour of the Andes.
The Argies really need to work harder on ridding themselves of their Milei (kowski).
That makes me laugh. Why the Andes, in particular?
The talk has always been about a zionist Plan B if they get thrown out of the Levant, that they would establish a new homeland in Argentina (Patgonia or Southern Argentina) - the Plan is called the Andinia Plan. Zioinists call it a conspiracy theory (which frankly gives it some credit to my mind).
Yikes! I'm Jewish and am going to be vacationing in southern Argentina. I hope no one thinks I'm involved in implementing Zionist plan B.
But the trip's my Mexican wife's plan. It's all her idea, believe me!
LOL
Because there are no more Incas, it is a land to be colonized?
Iran seriously takes into account the potential impact on Palestinians. So, a little complicated all around.
Palestinian Pain Tolerance dwarfs anything their isreali “neighbors” could dream of. The fuggin live in ruble already, and once the parasites move out and fade away they can rebuild. Prolly without a TrumpHotelCasino on the beach, but perhaps that’s for the best….
BINGO. Pop a few hypersonics into Dimona and Voila: Iran has an improvised Dirty Bomb! Finally Iran has a nuclear retaliation capability.
I think Iran might already have nuclear weapons now
…have not met Andinia…..
If anyone nukes Iran it's open season and gloves off everywhere on the ziofilth, wherever they may be.
D’you think Iran has song lullabies all the time?
Iran had said earlier that they would destroy Dimona if Isnotreal used nukes. I'm sure nobody really wants to die in Armageddon except a few nutjobs.
Ok then tough guys: make like a Nike ad and Just DO IT!
I was once given a T-shirt with the print "just do it... tomorrow"
You mean those (((psychopaths))).
The oiler running aground was from 2024. Fyi
Also, the Strait issue is being oversimplified
You have the following:
- vessels inside the gulf, laden, and trying to get out
- vessels outside the gulf, full of economically critical containers, trying to get in, diverting to oman and Indian ocean ports for now
- new vessel bookings ARE ZERO. No new boats have set destination for inside the Gulf since the start of the blockade
- the Gulf economies are container economies. Air cargo is fine food fresh food and medicine, but the actual economies, including oil and gas, rely heavily on shipped material. In a matter of 2 or 3 weeks, production operations will start winding down.
These countries are not configured for seige warfare. The only thing they are basic in is hydrocarbons, everything else needs to be brought in.
If the Hormuz isnt opened very soon, we are going to face a global economic catastrophe. Again, its 20% of global oil, 20% of global LNG, a major share of Asian LPG, global aluminum, urea, sulfur, and so on.
Trump can rot in the dustbin of history. What a retarded war
Retarded was the name…
And is it not fitting that US was ”dragged” into this by the Israelis (according to Rubio) and now Trump got all the blame?
What if World had reacted to Israel long ago?
I'm certain that the administration was too happy to go along as opposed to being dragged into the mess.
Trump hate messy things.
And I wrote about his quagmire a couple of days ago.
Interesting that Iran sees it the same way. They will sting like a bee and dance like a butterfly (or more likely a donkey). But the Gorilla will soon be so agitated that he makes an mistake.
Soon? The mistake was made on the 28th or last year when this decision was made.
He hasnt made any deadly mistake yet, like invading with ground troops or launching nukes.
All Gulf bases destroyed, allies attacked with impunity, Straits blocked to unfriendly traffic, oil and gas prices skyrocketing, Iranians delivering terms. Looks like a mistake, sounds like a mistake. Perhaps I'm mistaken?
We know now from the EPSTEIN FILES that Trump is DEEP STATE.
Maybe, however since 1973 every US administration has started strong until reminded that Israel plans to nuke multiple capitals across the globe should someone take them out. It has been to forestall this, first, that the dane-geld has been paid. Some degree of personal blackmail and cult or sect alignment is the backup, and raw corruption a fallback. Untangling the Gordian Knot would mean a very secret, very simultaneous and miraculously successful decapitation of each and every Israeli warhead... Tricky when your country is shit through with spies.
JC, unsure if you’re referring to the war of powers act in 1973 which made us “go to war at will,” but if so, or not, here’s a piece about the act and how every conflict post WWII is unconstitutional: https://unorthodoxy.substack.com/p/stop-calling-it-the-iran-war-start
No, I'm referring to the Schrodinger's Nuclear Genie act that Israel has had going on, and is the worst-kept secret in geopolitics. Israel was within inches of losing the Yom Kippur war, showed its hand to the US, and asked Nixon if he wanted to watch nukes fly. Nixon blinked, and the massive airlift that followed has remained the policy of presidents ever since: keep the Israeli nukes in their silos and never acknowledge existence on the record because military support to a nuclear-armed non-signatory of the NPT is literally illegal by US law.
"Maybe, however since 1973 every US administration has started strong until reminded that Israel plans to nuke multiple capitals across the globe should someone take them out." You mean, like Washington DC, London, Brussels, etc. Why would Israel do such a kindness for us?
We would get so lucky as to include London. But Moscow and DC, sure. Intended point being to trigger a nuclear WW3 with assured response scenarios, OR to trigger such a global revulsion scenario that the only option left will be to literally destroy Israel and the Jewish people and assume ownership of the mantle of the "next holocaust".
The problem, of course, is that once the Sampson Option is exercised and decision-makers wake up to the minute afterwards, they no longer HAVE to respond as expected (incinerate the rest of the world and/or Israel) because the deterrent is consumed--they can just... not. There are other options, and revealing the Ba'alist architecture of worship and cult control points to less all-consuming responses; if the public understand the nature of the guilty parties, those can be judged and punished while avoiding "innocents" (air quotes because democratic mechanisms fuzz the line).
But, it's all the same flawed logic as ended up with the administration "surprised!" that Iran responded forcefully to the assassination of their leadership; or "surprised!" that Russia actually SMO-invaded Ukraine.
Once a decision exists that real war is inevitable--let alone actual, the singularity of control (deterrence) collapses and takes with it all architecture of uncertainty such that national pain is accepted. This is why bombing campaigns are ineffective beyond killing specific people or blowing up specific things that may have a material impact on the war effort. See: Britain, Germany, Vietnam, etc.
"By way of deception, shalt thou make war."
Cheaper to leak the fantasy, and hope the threat stands, than to actually do it, which they didn't, they can't, and therefore, won't.
Samson is bald, fat, and impotent.
https://archive.org/details/8d-0de-2/page/n2/mode/1up
Since everyone has known this for so long, surely Russia, China, U.S. have some sort of plan in that circumstance.
It would be foolishness not to.
It's not hard to plan. It's hard to implement a plan. "No plan survives first contact" is a worthy maxim and quote for a reason.
Disabling Israel's nuclear deterrent is conceptually easy: track at all times half a dozen missile subs specifically designed to be untrackable, while ensuring you see every last possible movement of the maybe 300+ coffin-sized devices between the network of bases in Israel. Easy-peezy, but also ensure the Israelis don't catch on and try to trick you; it's not like their motto (as Totality451 reminds) centralizes deception in warfare....
This is why disabling a country's nuclear arsenal quickly amounts to "we nuke them first--alot".
The Brookings Institute policy paper from 2009 'Which path to Persia' explicitly details the strategy of using Israel as a proxy & pretext for US involvement in the Chapter titled 'Leaving it to Bibi'
Israel gets the blame (& retaliation), US gets an excuse, international opinion is manipulated.
Iran was last on the list of mid east countries to be invaded even before Iraq 2003, see Gen Wesley Clarks infamous interview - it just took a bit longer than 5 yrs.
It did - and we slaughtered them for it.
they didn't cause anti-semitic to do so. Thanks to the HC. But then again: HC was forced down our throats by governments and media. Mostly people bought and paid for lacking common sense (Operation Mocking Bird, NGO's). And we were and are not allowed to challenge. They used guilt to control our minds. They never used guilt to control our minds regarding the 27 million Russians, or in general the other 54 million victims of WW2. I wonder how, I wonder why
Yesterday you told me 'bout the blue, blue sky...
Sometimes the hole needs to dug deep enough so that the occupant stays in it…..
You have to say mentally disabled these days
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co
Thank you for linking this great review.
Everyone who follows Simplicius should read this article.
Wow, that was an amazing analysis.
Awesome thanks for sharing this
looks like someone tried to test there insurance provider in the most cinematic way possible. So far the best strike I have seen so far in this war.
https://war-tracker.com#/share/82859
He talks nonsense about the figures on Iran. Another one who reads mainstream media or frequents a bad fortune teller.
Sure, just ignore that.
Even the US doesn't know the truth, but what you read on this blog is the truth, simply because you read and believed it? Facts, man, facts. We don't know them, but Iran's military health still seems to be holding up, so doubting the figures is justified.
I am sharing the links so people can triangulate and get better info from different angles.
Yes, it is more or less informed speculations, but in order to improve the speculations we need info from various angles.
lmao
I came across this link via his X post that sbd shared with me. Also interesting post about US MO regarding the sunk Iranian ship, off the coast of Sri Lanka.
"JUST IN: A Sri Lankan court just handed 84 dead Iranian sailors back to Iran despite a US diplomatic cable ordering the opposite.
The Galle Chief Magistrate’s Court ruled today that the bodies of 84 identified crew members from the IRIS Dena, torpedoed by a US submarine 40 nautical miles off Sri Lanka’s coast on 4 March, be handed over to Iranian Embassy officials for repatriation. Thirty-two survivors were rescued by the Sri Lankan Navy. Eighty-seven were killed. Eighty-four have been identified, stored under refrigeration at Karapitiya Hospital, and are now legally released to Tehran.
Five days ago, a leaked US State Department cable told Sri Lanka to do the opposite.
The cable, dated 6 March and obtained by Reuters, was authored by US Charge d’Affaires Jayne Howell at the Embassy in Colombo. It explicitly urged Sri Lankan authorities not to repatriate the 32 Dena survivors or the 208 crew of the second Iranian vessel IRIS Bushehr, docked at Trincomalee. The stated goal: “minimize Iranian attempts to use the detainees for propaganda.” Howell briefed the Israeli ambassador to India and Sri Lanka that there were “no plans to repatriate the crew to Iran.” The Israeli envoy asked about “engagement with the crew to encourage defection.”
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2031615219215056975
You think you've got a scoop? This affair has been known since last week. It caused a scandal because this Iranian ship was disarmed after participating in a meeting, a show at the invitation of India in which, it seems, the USA also participated.
Jesus, it is not about measuring genitals. lmao
Yes, it has been sunk for a while now, but I haven't seen any info about US pressuring Sri Lanka like this.
But what countries are configured for siege warfare?
North Korea, definitely. Russia, substantially. China only partially because although it has huge appetites it also has multiple suppliers.
Within the USA, I would say only the Amish have their food, fuel and transport supplies guaranteed.
The only thing that matters is who can hold out longer. Whether you can hold your breathe for 1 min or 5 min, all that matters is that you can hold it for longer than the guy you are trying to drown
That implies a mutual struggle to the death, this isn't.
There's an asymmetry here between the besieger and the besieged.
The lion runs after the gazelle for a meal, the gazelle runs away from the lion for its life.
More like a fight between cobra (USA+Israel+EU+Ukraine) vs Mongoose (Russia+Iran+China+N.Korea)
Stevo,
I would argue its much bigger than that . Look at who's supplying weapons and logistics too . India and Turkey are playing both sides along with minor European and Asian countries . They won't pick a side until a winner emerges...
Good point well made Jack.
Khazarael has the knife at its throat.
Iran needs to attack its water supply.
Give them a safe passage down south and back to the Gulf of Aqaba they crossed 3500 years ago - where they can be slaughtered completely.
They have conspired against "Amalek" for millennia - let Amalek now take its revenge.
The real deciders are the banking dynasties/ major war profiteers.
Humanity must find ways to identify deciders and make them pay for their crimes
The IDF drew first blood.
Desalination plants are fair game.
I believe there are 4-5, and in the tit4tat tally, Iran is due to take one out.
Proceed…..
Far better to make the jews thirst for water than to have the continuous destruction of the environment with spilled and / or burning oil.
Iran only depends on desalination for 2% of its water - Khazarael, in excess of 90%.
It needs to be done ASAP.
The only reason I can think of for it not having been done already is holding it as a further escalation option. Meaning that things are panicky enough in TelAviv…for now.
America lives in a bubble reality of its own making--one that is largely indifferent to (or supportive) of the wars of aggression and other crimes that the USA perpetuates in general.
However, when Karma comes home to roost and America's bubble reality is burst, it will be more spectacular than the Titanic and Hindenburg combined.
It will be very interesting to watch America get "shocked and awed."
It's all a HW myth they live in.
Tom Cruise can never be defeated - as long as he rules over a celluloid world.
Interesting is one way to phrase it. Here is another:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_t4hnl-PSc
Retka,
The USA (or its puppet masters) own the media and can censor whoever they like . The control the finance and hedge funds , and are above the law . Reality can only return with accountability and that's going to hurt . Plenty of them have been building bunkers recently and that would indicate that they were planning the current shenanigans for some time.
Unlikely the USA will be shocked and awed via mass
Bombings or something. We sit between two massive oceans. More likely, our economy will collapse and our country will devolve into factional infighting .
second
>If the Hormuz isnt opened very soon, we are going to face a global economic catastrophe
Lets hope that will happen soon.
Lets hope the consumer society would collapse, but I think a thermonuclear war would be needed to achieve that goal. I am very pessimistic as Iran has no nuclear weapons. The elimination of Homo Sapiens, or even better, a reduction of Homo Sapiens to stone age level would give space to other species and save the planet Earth.
You are a psychopath
No. I am just ecologically aware. The human race cannot survive with this level of technology. On the level of Stone age it can.
I guess it's too much to hope for that you'll be intellectually honest enough to admit that your plan to eliminate all humans or to have them all live a Stone Age lifestyle only applies to humans other than you.
It applies also to me. It would be hard for this generation, most of us would die, but some would survive in a different world.
Please look at this anarcho-primitivist source.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Primitive_and_Other_Essays
Future Primitive is an unequivocal assertion of the superiority of the hunter-gatherer lifestyle.[3] Zerzan rejects the thesis that time and technology are neutral scientific realities, arguing instead that they are carefully constructed means of enslaving people.[4] He cites as examples the computer and the Internet, which he maintains have an atomizing effect on society, creating novel divisions of labour, demanding ever increasing efficiency and portions of leisure time.[4] Life prior to domestication and agriculture, Zerzan argues, was predominantly one of "leisure, intimacy with nature, sensual wisdom, sexual equality and health".[5] In the Paleolithic era, as The Wall Street Journal summarized Zerzan's thesis, "people roamed free, lived off the land and knew little or nothing of private property, government, money, war, even sexism. In the wild, the shackles of civilization weren't necessary, as people were instinctively munificent and kind, the primitivist argument goes.
It is worthwhile to study what the Satanists say about humanity, ecology etc.
You could try being a feral cat. There is a woods out behind the house where my colony and I live.
Ecology? You're a nutcase, so run for president in the US next time, you'll be elected. Otherwise, retire to a cave, live in the Stone Age, and paint cave walls with your hands and your poop.
When you say "we" are going to face a global economic catastrophe, you mean the Western nations that have sucked Israel for so long we've lost our lips. Because China and Russia and those they supply with oil and LNG apparently will be fine. And in that case if the US navy tries to take out the ridiculously named Russian "shadow fleet" we now know the American ships will be sunk.
It boggles the mind. Trillions wasted on the military that instead could have made America top-ranked in healthcare, education, transportation, R&D, and innovations that actually fix real problems.
"Because China and Russia and those they supply with oil and LNG apparently will be fine."
Upvoted because you're right overall, but, alas, the situation will be hard on China albeit being much better for Russia.
If the war reduces Iran's oil exports that will hit China, Iran's biggest customer. Russia cannot increase production fast enough to make up for a big reduction in Iranian exports to China.
A secondary effect that would be even bigger is that if the world enters a general recession that will hurt China's business model of being "the world's workshop." When the world's economy nosedives, China's exports also fall, and that really hurts the Chinese economy.
Russia initially would be making windfall profits as the only major and reliable (the US is unreliable for huge customers like India and China...) oil and gas supplier not affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But when the world's economy takes a nosedive the demand for oil and gas drops. That's what really moved oil prices down before the Iran war: US and self-imposed sanctions shot so many big economies in the head that industries closed and demand for energy plummeted. That ended up affecting Russia too, since a decline in overall demand for energy reduces Russian export sales.
A plummeting world economy is also bad for other Russian exports, about 30% of which now are various manufactured goods. Overall, Russia prefers a healthier world economy.
And you're right about all those trillions wasted on killing people when they could have been invested into making a better America. That's one big factor in how many empires have died in the past, when their expenditures on military force and protecting an over-expanded empire started eating the heart out of their societies.
Ok makes sense. It seems as though China can pivot and switch track quite efficiently, and when the effects you list do transpire I’ll be they can make moves to absorb it. Other nations who are more bogged down in corrupt bureaucracy will have a tougher time. Energy Siberia comes on line. China move into a more lean economy configuration. Storm can be weathered. The nosedive was always gonna happen and anyone with the mental means knows this. Of course everyone wants a global economic environment they can profit from.
John,
Its about self reliance . The cost of transport will eventually impact on where everything comes from . Local will become easier and cheaper as the cost rises . The disposable items will decline in favour of lasting quality . Everything we use has an energy cost and that will rule going forward . Energy intensive technology will wither when its costs and availability exceed its utility .
Well, I hear you and obviously you're right that energy costs play a big role in what people do. But they're not remotely the only costs, and how those energy costs affect an extremely interwoven and complex network of production and consumption networks is not always obvious.
Consider this, for an example: "The disposable items will decline in favour of lasting quality ."
That's not a conclusion that follows from an assumption of a rise of energy costs of transportation. Why is that? Because transportation is often the very lowest cost involved in the production of an item. Producing goods of higher quality isn't free, you know, and producing those higher quality goods often involves dramatically higher energy costs than production of disposable goods.
Do a thought experiment: what is the energy cost of producing a fine porcelain plate as compared to a disposable plastic picnic plate? What percentage of the cost of that porcelain plate is energy compared to other costs of production? What is the energy cost of washing that plate (hot water heating, electricity to run the dishwasher, etc.) which you don't have just throwing the plastic plate away?
What are the hidden costs if you decide not to recycle the plastic plate but buy a porcelain plate and wash it by hand to avoid running the dishwasher? Are you a serf whose time costs nothing? The energy cost of having competent, productive people doing manual labor is huge - it's an opportunity cost where not using their skills cascades down through an economy that's dumbed down with utterly stupid and wasteful processes.
So what is the energy cost of bringing that near-zero cost plastic plate from China where it is produced? Even given the near-zero cost of the disposable plate, the transportation cost is insignificant. Even if it cost ten times as much to move that ultra-large container ship from China to the US or to the EU it still would be insignificant. That's why disposable things like plastic plates are made in China but still are profitable to ship to the US and EU.
There are uses for fossil fuels where hydrocarbon fuels are difficult to replace, but mass shipment across oceans isn't one of them. For that matter large volume transport on rails or even interstate trucking can adapt. Rail transport is highly amenable to electrification, as is scheduled interstate trucking. Fixed electric infrastructure is an ideal consumer for centralized, large scale electricity production using nuclear plants. Likewise, super-huge container ships are also an ideal use for marine nuclear plants. Fuel it once and it can keep going back and forth across the Pacific as much as you want for 50 years.
All that, of course, assumes that the nuclear power provided isn't designed and operated incompetently. Given the idiotcratic decrease in IQ seen in governments these days in the West you can't take that for granted.
Ah, one last thing... this isn't true either: "Local will become easier and cheaper as the cost rises." That's only true if your "local" production can be accomplished using only inputs that also are local. If you have to bring anything at all in to make what it is you want, then you still have transportation costs.
Local production using purely local inputs means a medieval level of technology. Actually, it's worse than that since even in medieval times there was extensive trade over great distances for inputs that could not be found locally. Heck, that even goes back to neolithic times, where fine flint and other materials would be traded great distances.
So no, unless you're happy living like a medieval serf carving your own wooden spoons using flint you've found in your back yard and have knapped to make your own knives, let's not be tempted by wishful thinking about higher energy costs resulting in some "everything is made locally with lasting quality" utopia.
John,
The only energy that carries no cost to the individual is their own . Nuclear energy is probably the way forward , but it still requires large energy inputs mostly supplied by fossil fuels .Mining , refining and transport to name three . Ships can have nuclear power but would need refuelling every 12 to 18 months , and maintenance is still required and this is considerable when operating in a marine environment . Electrification of transport is likewise problematic - the resources required (copper especially) would need massive increases in production of the required metals and energy supply . We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources . You stated that a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources , but the plastic must be manufactured , molded and transported all of which require energy just to throw it away after one use. In the past we had local industry that would make the everyday items that we all use but with the rise in machinery manufacturing using cheap energy that capability is gone . In most countries manufacturing is almost gone (to China...) and the skill sets are too .
"The only energy that carries no cost to the individual is their own ."
That's only true if the individual's time and physical effort is valueless, hence my question if you're (using the generic "you" and not meaning only you specifically) a serf whose time costs nothing.
Time is the most precious resource any individual has, and there is a huge opportunity cost to wasting that time on activities of lesser value than those which the individual could be doing.
Should Beethoven have spent his time plowing a field to grow his own food instead of writing immortal music and paying a small part of what he earned doing that to buy his food? Heck no.
So, if for some reason Einstein had thought his own personal energy had no cost should he have become a potter to throw his own plates and mugs instead of paying a tiny part of what he earned by transforming physics to cover the energy cost of some industry doing that for him? Again, heck no.
"Nuclear energy is probably the way forward , but it still requires large energy inputs mostly supplied by fossil fuels .Mining , refining and transport to name three ."
I was pointing out that mass transportation is particularly amenable to using nuclear energy. If the cost of hydrocarbon fuels jumps to the equivalent of $500 per barrel of oil, then relatively static industries like nuclear fuel production will be less hurt than activities where hydrocarbons are essential, because they too are amenable to electrification. The mostly static infrastructure of mining, refining and transportation of nuclear fuel is very well suited to electrification and much of it, like rail transport, is already electrified in countries that do it well.
"We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources . You stated that a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources , but the plastic must be manufactured , molded and transported all of which require energy just to throw it away after one use."
Ah, as I gave in my example of a disposable plastic plate compared to a porcelain plate, the costs of creating non-disposable products are very high in energy. That's the main reason people use disposable products, because they are cheaper.
By the way, if you read my posting attentively you'll see at no point did I state "a plastic plate requires little in the way of resources." On the contrary, I stated a disposable plastic plate costs very little and "the transportation cost is insignificant."
What you wrote originally discussed only transportation costs. That's an error, to consider only transportation costs. I pointed out that producing non-disposable goods is not cost free, and they require lots of energy costs.
The question is not whether a plastic plate has no costs associated with it, the question is how those costs compare to creating a non-disposable product that replaces it. You went even further out on a limb claiming that higher energy costs would result not only in non-disposable products, but higher quality ones and made locally as well. That's taking two additional long strides out on a limb that has no demonstrable substance to it.
So let's take a closer look at the costs of making a porcelain plate. That requires mining, cleaning/preparation, and transportation of suitable clay, which is not conveniently found in every hobbit's shire. That takes energy. The production of porcelain is highly energy intensive given the kilns it requires, and that's not even counting all the energy cost of inputs like the glazes and coloring used. In a modern porcelain factory there are massive numbers of machines to generate and apply the designs, all of which require power, and you need a fair number of people as well, which are energy intensive. Porcelain is heavy and must be packaged properly to not break in transport. All that drives up yet more energy costs, like cutting down all the wood that goes into making cartons and other packing materials.
Plastic plates are cheap because their feedstock is oil, which is shipped in bulk in zillion gallon tankers that can transport it halfway around the planet for nearly free (that's the magic of bulk ocean transport economy of scale), and it can be transformed into polyethylene or whatever by being pumped through nearly totally automated facilities that can handle huge volume. The resulting pellets are light and are easily formed into plastic plates by molding machines that can stamp out zillions of them in high volume. They're very light to transport and require no finicky packaging.
Add just a tiny bit of effort and you can produce a polymer plate that isn't disposable but will serve you for decades and is almost impossible to break or chip, unlike the porcelain or higher quality "ceramic" plates that anybody with a cabinet full of mis-matched IKEA plates can tell you will chip and break with regularity.
"In the past we had local industry that would make the everyday items that we all use"
Really? You must live in some really exceptional hobbit shire that in the past had local industry, that without any external inputs could manufacture smart phones, computers, televisions, automobiles, microfiber fabrics, GoreTex or similar waterproof shoes and clothing, electricity, espresso makers, LED light bulbs, and all the other everyday items that we all use.
If you come back down to earth on this planet, the reality is that no, after medieval times not remotely has there ever been a past in which local industry made all the everyday items that we all used. Everything beyond medieval, serf-level subsistence depended on trade and deliveries of products and necessary inputs from non-local sources. As I pointed out in my prior essay, even in neolithic times key inputs like trade in high quality flint were non-local.
"but with the rise in machinery manufacturing using cheap energy that capability is gone"
In point of fact, much of the energy that goes into living above the level of a medieval serf is not cheap energy, and that's one reason why economy of scale using machinery manufacturing has risen, because such manufacturing uses energy far more efficiently than individual manual labor.
Forget that and you can starve millions of people, as the Chinese leadership did during the Great Leap Forward when somebody making the same "local" arguments you did convinced that leadership that China could produce the steel it needed by commanding everybody to make a backyard blast furnace to make steel locally.
It turns out that was a cretinously stupid idea that could only get traction by people who had a toxic mix of incredibly bad education, low IQ and near zero common sense. Backyard blast furnaces are orders of magnitude less energy efficient (as well as being less everything else efficient...) than giant, centralized blast furnaces. Trying to "leap forward" by making national levels of steel in home furnaces just causes such an extraordinary waste of resources, including energy, that it ends up starving people.
Can you operate a backyard furnace to make steel for some purposes? Sure. Japanese swordsmiths did exactly that for hundreds of years to make small, artisanal amounts of steel from ore to make swords. It's a huge amount of effort, staggeringly wasteful of energy and other resources, but it does result in a lump of iron shot through with carbon impurities that can subsequently be hand-refined into steel with a thousand or so hours of effort, again at huge energy costs. If the swordsmith gained enough skill through a long and energy-costly apprenticeship, he could make a sword that is unmatched through the ages for its composite structure.
But you can't make enough steel for even a small bridge doing that, and you can't even make enough steel for something "we all use," to apply your phrase. You can only make enough steel for a sword for somebody, a samurai, who keeps many other people in bondage living an enserfed lifestyle so he can be the one person among them who can have a sword made of such steel, wear a fine silk kimono, and so on.
The reason manufacturing has gone to China has nothing to do with the cost of energy. It has everything to do with Western populations becoming fat, stupid, lazy, incompetent, and socialist fools while the Chinese have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps by being industrious, diligent, studious, pragmatic people who reward enterprise and hard work.
One last thing... (almost forgot) about this: ""We live in a throw away society because we have ATM copious energy supply , but this cannot last as rising use meets declining resources ."
No, that's completely false. That assumes that people will be so idiotically incompetent that they will not take means to ensure ample energy for their rising use. Well, that may be the case in the low-IQ West, as the EU is demonstrating for us in real time, but it's certainly not the case in countries run by intelligent, competent leaders like Russia and China.
As has been well known by intelligent people since the 1940's, nuclear energy can provide more than enough energy to meet "rising use" for many centuries into the future. It just has to be applied competently. So sure, that may result in a Darwinian extinction of economies run by incompetent fools (as Germany is demonstrating in real time) but that's their problem.
Electrification provides a way forward into the future for many centuries if nuclear energy, done competently, is used to provide the electricity. It basically solves all transportation use problems except for large distance, large capacity air travel. If you don't waste hydrocarbons where they are not needed, saving them for air transport, there are enough hydrocarbon fuel resources for a few centuries of use for air transport. Beyond that you can use synthetic fuels manufactured using endless, low cost, nuclear energy.
I wonder if it has occurred to any republicans that the trillions spent on “defense” is really just spending money to provide jobs that aren’t created by private industry. It’s basically just communism.
30% of global fertilisers go through the strait with planting season around the corner so expect global food prices to rise this year which may cause massive instability in many of the poorer nations.
Yeah, ain't it funny how the people who pilloried Russia for shutting down Odessa and its grain exports are silent about the US shutting down fertilizer exports.
'tis a mystery.
In addition, what is stopping Iran from targeting more vessels inside the Gulf, other than future leverage?
Bash,
If you sink a few ships in the straits shallowest places , that will close the straits for months if not years . This would be high irony if they were USA warships.
brooo the world is literally going to explode if drumpf doesnt stop the war!!!!
Great subject!
We are talking here an equation with hundreds of variables. It is remarkable that Orange threw in the mass murder of the civilian population of Iran very openly, as the first instrument that came to mind for him. It says something about how his brain is wired; he is turning into the ultimate Neanderthal at the very front of our eyes. MAGA, together with the midterm elections and likely Republican majorities in Congress and Senate were all thrown into the bonfire. Those have never been the true considerations for the billion dollar election. What we see now and during the next ten months is what he really wanted.
The fact that Iran is able to scare the ships away from the Strait of Hormuz tells us that the constant bombing was unable to destroy their defenses. The Persian military guy in that video doesn’t really sound submissive at all. There is very visible pressure on Orange and he has a tendency to crack and turn. Israhell crying like a baby for his mammy for a pause and it is unlikely to happen on their order.
The aircraft carriers are staying 600 and more miles away, playing it safe. A single mistake with a food stop can hurt them badly. China was already negotiating concerning hypersonic ship killer missiles and nobody knows if they sent any. Since they share a short land border with Afghanistan they can actually bribe the Afghans to open a land route and carry supplies to the Iranian borders with trucks. US losses but mainly economic losses for half the planet will multiply and Orange will not be able or willing to pay for that. All the consequences we are looking at now were easy to calculate before the war already but there was an overwhelming need to get into this conflict and that was most certainly not American interests.
Putin is offering to safe keep Iran’s highly enriched Uranium but something tells me he is not going to get it.
Why wouldn't China use the BRI funded rail through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan? Afghanistan is very mountainous with poorly kept roads.
The US has the capacity to place pressure on Kazakhstan.
Could you please provide some details? The US doesn't appear to be a major trade partner
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/kaz
While Russia and China are first and second, and share a large border.
Kazakhstan has a giant territory with very small population, a sizable Russian minority and around 3,000 miles of shared border with Russia. That is a very long border to defend if they get into any hostility there with Russia. So they are talking to Orange and Company this and that, searching for some sort of guarantee for the future. The US idea is to raise some sort of Asian NATO line on the Southern border of Russia to contain the Big Bad Russian Teddy Bear.
An Asian landlocked NATO between Russia and China? Not a very bright idea.
Absolutely agreed, geopolitically speaking the idea is absurd. It is just difficult to decide anymore when politicians are driven by genuine concern for their own people, looking at real or imaginary dangers or they are just searching for the next opportunity to purchase a golden toilet.
Give Kahzak leaders enough money. We can buy their votes in the UN, maybe even some loyalty, money is no object for US since we "print on demand".
However, their retirement plan might not be very desirable.
I think they have some "defense" agreement with the UK, and western interests are heavily invested in their oil sector. Even their capital Astana (named so quite recently for unclear reasons, some even calling it "Satana") was rebuilt by western interests. And their leaders are weak but corrupt. It's often completely overlooked in geopolitical analysis, but there is a lot going on
There is a rail way line from China to Turkey and then the EU countries. The Caspian Sea is crossed by ferries to Baku. The capacity is very good. If China wants to send goods to Iran, they can use this line, there are enough harbours on the Iranian side of the Caspian Sea.
The reason I was guessing on the direct, shortest route from China through Afghanistan was because China will likely opt for a covert operation, they will not want to allow for the count of every item they ship on a well observed open rail network through Kazakhstan. Afghanistan is a tribal land, they have a long history of doing this thing. Doing US operations they were well known to ship gasoline with trucks for the US Army from the Pakistan border. It is true the shipping was sometimes up to a thousand dollars per gallon to extreme remote areas but America was willing to print paper to pay that. It did not make too much difference as the paper mostly never showed in US circulation. China will be motivated to keep shipments secret, they will try to avoid sanctions as a punishment for the act but they will not want Iran to be subjugated.
@Robert
Kazakhstan was postured as a US vassal for the past several years, even suggested as the next "Ukraine". Now? Who knows.
It is so complicated that Iran is winning and no one has seen it. But those with secret x-ray vision.
Under the circumstances for Iran simple survival is a major victory.
Iran is looking for a crushing victory - and they will get it.
They will reduce Khazarael to rubble on the Gaza model, and throw the US out of the Middle East.
Their victory is one which has rewritten world history.
This is not about survival.
Their demands are maximalist - compensation being amongst them.
Mohamed Ali devised the rope-a-dope strategy to defeat the unbeatable George Foreman and that is how I see Iran playing it.
Each blow US lands weakens it (US) and all Iran has to do is soak them up and survive.
As for Israhell, it is being demolished and its capacity to project force is being diminished so that local players (Hezbollah) can join in the game plan.
If Irans goal is to remove the entity Israhell from the region, then Israhell will respond in a manner befitting existential survival.
Much of the world appraises that the short term pain is worth the long term gain!
Patience. Censorship runs deep with this one.
Have you considered removing your red, white and blue glasses for a better view?
Sometimes surviving is winning.
They seem to be more than surviving. I would say they are looking like winners already and it's only just started.
I hope you're right mate.
Trump a genocidal maniac with no consideration of ‘the other’. Genocide in the form of famine awaits many countries who will be gravely affected by the demolishment of the GCC and the loss of necessary oil based products for many countries and the Strait closure will lead to the starvation of many indentured servants and slaves in Qatar and other emirate countries. This feels like a continuation of the Covid debacle in a different form - depopulation at an exponential rate will be the result. All for greater Israel or Israel first a country of 7,000 people - what hubris and our Orange man succumbed to their demands putting the whole world at risk to feed his narcissistic needs.
Watching this insanity is very painful - this is real life not a video game or a reality show.
Trump prefers to have the whole world starve than that his "indiscretions" with children be revealed.
I noticed that struggle around the E-Files also….
A Narcissistic, psychopath has no conscience- DJT operates on a totally different frequency than most - no guilt, no regret just focuses on satisfying his every whim- Ukraine, Syria, Greenland, Venezuela, Iran - let’s make a deal and con the world - Epstein is old news- distract, obfuscate, lie, murder - this madman is only interested in his place in history-he has attained infamy and no one, no one in our government will stop him but maybe, just maybe Iran will.
Trumpytoes may have no conscience, but he has a ego; and so he doesn't want the truth about his indiscretions to surface.
I suspect that the remnant of the US political system will bring him down very shortly, as his adventures in wonderland become increasingly disastrous for the whole world.
Remnant of the US political system has been on life support for some time so which part of the government- the ‘deep state, AIPAC, Zionist donors, imbedded Mossad agents, oligarchs will intervene. We are no longer the country we thought we were, we were captured over the past 80 years by Israel and the Zionist lobby- power is no longer in ‘our’ hands.
PS Narcissistic psychopaths have no shame or guilt or any ‘normal’ human responses.
The US needs root and branch destruction and rebuilding.
No single Congressperson can be allowed to reinfest the body politic.
The only ones I can think of who could form the basis for a completely new form of government are Massie, Taylor Green, and Rho Khanna.
Their border with Afghanistan is almost 600 miles. And that with Pakistan is about the same. Pakistan would be a better choice as they have friendly relations. But Russia is the greatest possible source of supplies - food, weapons, energy.
Pakistan is a bit busy sometimes to become a US proxy in the area also. They are presently running a little hostility with India and Afghanistan as well. The Afghan route is the harder but the Afghans will do anything for some small arms and hard cash. It is a country where corruption is a fundamental way of existence.
Pak ISI = CIA proxy
Do not insult the neanderthal!
He is insulting himself…
i dont think there ever were mines, it was only a report from cnn i think.
Maybe trump is playing 7d chess buy f-ing up so badly everyone hates the deep state and israel so much it falls apart on its own! ;)
The threat of mines is enough to panic the insurance companies at the moment. So for Iran that's effective and allows for future escalation.
decisions by the insurance companies count for more than anything anyone in the UN might come up with. once a banker, always a banker.
I've seen a photo of one of their small boats with 4 WW2-type mines loaded on board.
If they do have cavitating torpedoes, does that change your previous analysis of them not being able to hit US assets in the Arabian Sea?
Probably not because the Shkval has a very small range, like 7-15km depending on variant. Can Iranian sub get that close, doubtful, but who knows. Outfitting them on naval drones would probably be much more effective. Or they may have some kind of land based adaptation to shoot them from the shore just into the Strait itself. But hitting US ships farther away seems unlikely.
Shkval is a very secretive thing, I would not be trusting the official specs.
Seems like all their offensive weapons are so secretive, no one has seen them.
Excluding the over rated missiles and drones.
Is it possible that Russia gave them Shkval technology?
Iran could have explored the option of semi autonomous loitering type supercavitating torpedo drones, based on Russia's Poseidon types, but with smaller warheads. Who knows..
That seriously would be a game changer Don. Loitering good and deep off the Coast of Diego Garcia awaiting Naval assets rocking up for resupply. Might not even need to sink them, just damage the propellers or steering gear would present a massive headache.
They have Kryptonite bombs also.
Everyone knows.
Well Tom, given you have an 0-2 record against farmers armed with AK47s and RPGs, do they even need them?
Ha. Who the hell knows John.
I dont know the names and specs of any of this shit these guys claim are the next big things. Maybe they are, but I've been hearing of the next biggest thing ever for years.
As far as defeats. I blame naive neocons. An AK is a fine rifle but I prefer high explosives. Tons of em.
Or are they underwater missiles, ie not a propeller driven torpedo, an actual missile propelled by jet engines generating thrust, giving it very much longer range and speed than a typical torpedo.
As we have seen so much new military technology (new physic principles to quote VVP) within the last year this could be possible.
Does Iran have drone boats like what Ukraine has been using to harass Sevastopol and Novorossisyk? That technology would seem to be well suited for harassing Strait shipping.
“appears to have went” ???
Your LLM is on the blink. Better call the bloke at the the repair shop with soldering iron.
Grammar Nazism is obnoxious.
It could be argued that LLMs make less grammar mistakes than peeps, right?
I'm ok with any vaguely intelligent comment.
Walker is bright. most commenters on here arent.
Congratulations! You are in the majority.
So are you.
At least you have a sense of humor.
Nazism, eh? So you have a pathological fear of proofreading? Sounds awful, I’m so sorry.
Haha, pathological fear of proofreading. lmao
Peeps make mistakes. Sure you made at least a mistake or two in your life. Haven't you?
Look at me using "peeps". Silly me.
It's grammar democracy, actually.
Grammar NSDAP
Grammar is sufficient.
Or just read what you wrote, and correct the grammar.
"bloke"!! You Brits slay me :)
Ah, except I’m not a Brit. “Bloke” is just a common word used in the UK, Australia and New Zealand.
Kia ora
Iran should demand only the heads of the entire trump, hegseth and netanyahu bloodlines on golden platters in exchange for a ceasefire. With apples in their mouths of course.
And bayonets in their anuses.
Legendary 🏆
Definitely.
sources?
https://x.com/SanchezRic8776/status/2031979607809785872?s=20
Trump already has the head of supreme leader and the foot of supreme leader junior. Leader junior cant even appear in public.
Ever.
But if your Homoerotic fantasy is comforting, masturbate to it.
Muh trump..
You missed your appointment yesterday. Try again, you will feel much better after getting professional help.
If their victory is as complete and comprehensive as seems to be the case, then Iran should demand that Donnie comes to Iran in person to sign the Instruments of Surrender.
Pomegranates in their mouths, don't SETTLE. And must include J. D. Vance & Lindsey Graham.
Going ugly. And what could you expect when you twice negoiate with Iran and then suddenly strike their leadership for decapitation? I am surprised they didnt learn from what the Israelis did to Hamas and Hizbollah.
The ”fog of War” has never been greater than just now regarding the means we posses to monitor the effects of the ongoing fight. The few videos coming out and satellite photos are not enough to conclude who is most hurt and how the exchange will end. The censorship and disinformation is at very high level.
According to Trumpf 5000 strike missions has been completed inside Iran, thats is just 1/8 of the 40 000 made against Iraq prior to the ground invasion that lasted only 100 hour.
So we can be pretty sure that Iran is not obliterated but badly hurt. If they have anticipated massive air-strikes and learned from other wars they have dispersed their forces enough.
Iran has launched 2000-3000 drones and missiles and many of them at the same target. If they have had 10% success or 30% is not important because they only represent 200-600 hits on target equaling about maximum 100-200 tons of bombs. Its not deadly.
In Desert Storm US dropped 88 000 tons of bomb over Iraq which is the same amount Israel has given to the Gazan people. Thats destruction!
This War, like the good old SMO in Ukraine, is a War of perception. If people sitting on our money perceive the War they way they fear most things are going to get real ugly. If US&Israel are perceived as losers they will lose no matter what Orange Man is boasting.
If someone dare to expose what destruction, if any, Iran has caused in Israel the opinion may pressure Netanyaho to either cave in or nuke.
Trumpf has soon run out of arguments and will have to make something to look like the godsend Messiah he thinks he is. It could well be nukes.
US is too big to fail so they rather goes with a boom.
Iran is exhausted.
America isn't
Israel isn't
Both are busily killing Iranians.
Iran is hurt, but not beaten to death.
What's your definition of exhausted?
Stating it as a fact without saying exactly what you mean sounds very Trumpian.
Iran is not after humans but after what counts, military or dual use installations and economic important facilities.
Killing people is a very sick western thing.
What doesn't seem to have been factored is that NK is itching to join the fray, and mass Iranian civilian casualties will give the 'righteous' cause.
And NK will bring their deliverable nukes to the party.
When you're rooting for North Korea and still think you're the good guys 🤣
North Korea has no idea. Its never used nukes civilians. America nuked the Japs. And of course, the US wrote the history. I mean narriative. Thats the way it works. Nobody is itching to lose a city or two for the NORKS.
Thomas is one sick puppy.
Iran kills an awful lot of women for being humanists, Frank. Not to mention the general treatment f women. Beating. Stoning. Disappearing. Sexually mutalating. Etc.
Trump is killing "dual use" Mullahs. nice guys for the camera, brutal military commanders in their spare time.
You are a liar and I don't know what you gain by doing so.
You obviously know nothing about Iran and of their political, social system.
So remember, talking BS-points that other people plant in your head has nothing to do with thinking, it's a pathetic attempt to appear like you have something to say.
I dont like Iran. Period. You do.
Everyone talks their shit. You don't know anything about trump other than Democrat talking points. But you try hard. I'll give you that.
Is that the objective then? Is that the plan? To kill Iranians.
Pretty sure that's not a war winning strategy Clauswitz.
No. But it is better than the neocon idea of building US style democracies in shit holes.
And in ny opinion will work despite the trope that it cant. WW-2 was won by bombing. Fire bombing and a tiny atom bomb.
The anti strategic bombing talking points were just 1950's. revisionist history. Even McAuthor signed on. Patton would have also if he hadn't been assassinated.
WW2 wasn't won by bombing.
Thats the narriative. Fire bombing didn't wreck Germany and Japan?
Remember, Trump doesn't care about regime change. Just wrecking Iran. And eliminating the Mullahs.
WW2 was won on the ground, and by the SU.
Messerschmidt production increased towards the end of the war, as it was all moved underground.
Iran never built above ground, so the jewish axis of evil cannot defeat Iran.
Rusia didn't have planes. Ford built em at Willow Run.
Russia took ground with lives. We firebombed Germany and Japan. Let Stalin rape his way through Berlin. Then BBQ'ed the Japs
All with aircraft
Am I wrong? And yes. War is brutal. Always. With everyone. No prisoners, just wrecked humanity.
War itself is a crime.
Virtue signaling is pathetic.
Russia had a whole host of planes - they had spent the previous three Five Year Plans constructing them.
You can only take ground with lives - aerial bombardment is ferocious, but it doesn't cause collapse or surrender.
That has to occur on the ground.
So yes, you are wrong.
Prof Mearsheimer has a long monologue about this very issue starting at 16.00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e9NhLfPNKU
" ..., However, despite having the largest air force in the world by 1938, Soviet aeronautical design lagged behind Western advances, with a focus on heavy bombers suited for record-breaking flights rather than tactical combat aircraft ... "
You'll learn, Tommy.
Perhaps Iwo Jima never happened?
what?
("so they goes"...?).
Iran did learn, but not in the way a western mindset would understand.
Ali Khamenei knew exactly what might happen, but he refused to, as Bob Dylan once said "Go down under the ground, when somebody tells me that death's coming round."
He never tried to escape destruction, and wanted to die a martyr rather, as he said, than in his bed, or a hospital bed.
Yes. That bearded theocrat had more men in his body than Netanyahu who flew to Berlin to seek cover during the first bombings…
Whatever other delusions he may have entertained about the fake god "allah," nobody can deny that the Iranian people loved him with a passion.
Apparently he lived in rented accomodation, and refused to go underground, as he wanted to be exposed to all the same things normal everyday Iranians were exposed to.
If they loved him so much, then why were so many iranians dancing in the streets and burning pictures of him when he died?
Try a different TV channel.
One run by a different intelligence agency.
He preferred to die for his country rather than make Americans die for theirs. Wish there were more martyrs like him.
Area of Israel = 8 000 sq. miles
Area of Iraq = 166 000 sq. miles
Area of Iran = 636 000 sq. miles
In terms of strike density 600 hits on Israel is equivalent to c. 48 000 on Iran - The empire of chaos has a way to go yet; another 155 000 strikes and the preparation for ground forces should be complete.
Of course, such equivalences are meaningless really but do provide interesting perspectives.
Dont follow your math but perspectives are important indeed. US cant bomb Iran to submission even with nukes. One can say that area doesnt matter, it is the numbers of target. And with areas you can disperse you assets enough. 4 years of bombing Ukraine and now they are flying Flamingos deep into Russia. The latest attack against Bryansk was with british Storm Shadows and Kreml hasnt reacted at all…
What I mean is that Iran cant win over Israel if they cant destroy key infrastructures. All they can do like Ukraine is to survive and not lose.
No, I don't follow it either! 29 000 should read 48 000. Edited. Thanks.
TheUS can turn their sand into glass. It can skip a few square kilometers.
Russia and China would be happy to see them waste all nukes into Iran.