Humiliation: Israel Tucks Tail After Failing All Objectives in War against Victorious Iran

Yesterday, Iran retaliated for the US ‘strikes’ on its nuclear facilities, concluding the final act of the choreographed play we’ve been witnessing. It launched Operation Basharat al-Fath (بشارت الفتح), which reportedly means ‘Glad Tidings of Victory’, or ‘Good News of the Conquest’ if you ask Google, hitting the US Al Udaid base in Qatar.

Iran says it used the same amount of missiles against Al-Udeid as the amount of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Fordow (14)

The US claims everything was intercepted, and of course, again it was revealed that the entire act was ‘agreed upon’ between both sides.

Afterwards, Trump responded in a way indicating that he was fine with letting Iran blow off some steam in order to conclude the off-ramp for everyone involved:

Last time when I had written up the idea that the Fordow hit was done via secret back channel handshake some people were skeptical. But here is the ‘smoking gun’ video that proves precisely how this work is done behind the scenes—it pertains to the previous attacks during Trump’s first term, which were a retaliation for the hit on Soleimani, but is obviously more than relevant today. Watch very carefully:

Trump not only explains about how Iran called him to notify of the strikes, but his casual sympathy to the practice clearly implies its normalcy from both sides. In short, he understands how these dynamics work, and it’s more than plausible that the US itself utilized the same courtesy to notify Iran. The manner and speed with which the ‘peace’ has now been concluded further attests to the choreographed nature of this dance, as each participant performed their role efficiently.

As stated, the next big news is that our predictions were accurate in Israel seeking an immediate off-ramp to the conflict, as today a ‘triumphant’ peace was finally concluded.

The reasons were obvious, as the above article titles hint at: Israel was being attritioned, its economy ravaged, its largest seaport and airports shutdown, and some sources claim, its fuel and ammo stockpiles dwindling. Technical ‘superiority’ aside, Iran is a country of 90+ million (to Ted Cruz’s eternal chagrin), and Israel’s 9 million would be hard pressed to wage a war of attrition against it, with or without US’ help.

Iranian attacks were beginning to add up, devastating Israeli neighborhoods and turning citizenry against their government. This is one of the last recorded hits on Beersheba earlier:

Also, Iran had begun attritioning Israel’s heavy drones. Another batch of several Hermes heavy UCAVs (drones with combat capabilities, rather than surveillance) were shot down in the past two days:

As well as other types:

Though information is scarce on how many of the heavy UCAVs Israel has in total, Wiki lists one of their flagship models, the IAI Eitan (part of the Hermes model) as follows:

If the numbers are similar for the other models like Heron and Hermes, then Israel may only have a total of 30-45 or so heavy UCAVs—with upwards of 5-10 of them shot down in this brief conflict, not counting many other medium-sized ones. The fact that Israel appeared to primarily rely on UCAVS to strike Iranian military targets means the attrition of these vehicles would essentially neuter Israel’s offensive capabilities inside Iran. It would also potentially require risking real fighter aircraft to incur deeper into Iran and be shot down.

Thus, Israel was slowly losing its capability to deal damage, and more importantly, rapidly losing its capability to reflect damage from Iranian ballistic missiles. Thus, a quick claim of “victory” was in order to wrap things up before the humiliation got too palpable for the general populace.

But how far does the deception go, exactly? Trump’s team continues to vehemently contend that Iran’s facilities were “completely obliterated”—specifically making certain to not leave it to guesses, or ‘open ended’ in any way.

A very Presidential post.

But evidence is mounting that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were untouched, or were only set back by a few months at most. The 400kg of ‘enriched Uranium’ is likewise missing, with Iran now having no incentive to notify anyone of its whereabouts, lest it be criminally struck again.

In fact, a full-on US intelligence leak openly stated that the sites were not damaged at all, and that even the centrifuges at Fordow remain totally intact:

The White House even admitted the leaks were real classified information from the intel community, but that the assessments were simply “wrong”.

Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear program representative has stated that the program will not stop, and continues to be underway.

The more interesting aspect is Trump’s angle in this game. It turns out that he did perhaps manage to save his presidency, at least for now, and may have been acting in a subversive ‘patriot’ role to the extent that he did what he could to extract the US from the conflict via show strikes, while suddenly castigating Israel.

On top of that, he now claims to no longer seek regime change, albeit he appears to imply that he will not allow Iran to have a civilian nuclear program, again pointing to their copious oil reserves as he did last time:

Trump no longer wants a change of power in Iran because he does not want to see “chaos,” – CNN

➖"You know, the Iranians are very good traders, very good businessmen, and they have a lot of oil. They should be fine. They should be able to recover and do a good job. They will never have nuclear power, but other than that, they should do a great job," the US president said.

At the same time, he showed ‘mercy’ in not striking the Iranian nuclear reactors—though it could more realistically be characterized as ‘sanity’:

🇺🇸🔥🇮🇷 The US Army, when attacking the nuclear center in Iran's Isfahan, deliberately did not strike buildings with research reactors, - Bloomberg

▪️The agency reports this with reference to satellite images and four high-ranking sources in Vienna.

▪️The three reactors of the Isfahan center, including a miniature neutron reactor of Chinese manufacture in 1991, which runs on 900 grams of weapons-grade uranium, remained undamaged after the airstrikes.

▪️Their buildings, under IAEA safeguards supervision, survived, while most of the large industrial buildings around were destroyed.

RVvoenkor

The other important thing is, while the US boasts of triumph, in reality the off-ramp may have very well saved US future humiliation as well. The rare GBU-57 bunker busters used against Iranian sites were said by WSJ to number only 20 in total, which means the 14 dropped on Iran represented 70% of the entire US arsenal of this highly unique weapon.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-latest-news/card/the-u-s-used-its-biggest-bunker-busters-in-warfare-for-the-first-time-XVsQWL8DaaeXDTtIOG1B

If true, that means the US essentially lost its capability to even appreciably damage Iranian underground sites after this one attack—whether it was ‘fake’ or not. Sure, the US could slowly produce more, but if 20 represented the entire arsenal, we can only assume their production rate is glacial. That’s not to mention, next time Iran may not be so ‘agreeable’ in rolling out the welcome mat for that B-2A squadron.

Now, let’s cover some basic facts about the conflict:

1. Through the end of it, there remains not a single shred of proof that Israeli (or American, for that matter) planes ever significantly overflew Iran at any time. Claims of ‘total air superiority’ have no grounds, and up until the final day Israel continued relying on their heavy UCAVs to strike Iranian ground targets.

The most significant proof is that Israel very enthusiastically released footage of their strikes—so how come not a single clip from that footage showed strikes from fighter-bomber jets? Every clip was from a UCAV, which is telling.

Only one clip released yesterday showed what was claimed to be a jet at night flying over an Iranian city and conducting strikes, but upon research the city turned out to be Bander Abbas:

Is it any surprise that the only extant footage of a possible plane incursion is on a literal coastal city?

Secondly, the drop tanks from Israeli planes were recorded washing up on Iran’s northernmost Caspian shores:

What does that prove?

That Israeli strikes on Tehran are originating from the Caspian, disproving ‘total air superiority’ fraud.

2. The second big takeaway:

It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.

In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.

Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?

The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.

It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.

In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.

In short, the only thing Israel has proved to excel at is murdering civilians and assassinating people with drones while they sleep. Just check WaPo’s release of a Mossad recording wherein the operative threatens to kill an Iranian general’s “wife and children” if he does not comply; this is Israel’s core ethos.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/23/exclusive-israel-intelligence-iran-call-audio/

3. Iran’s victory will embolden resistance movements across the world. That is because for once, not only was Israel made to look truly vulnerable, but the US by its side looked spineless and ultimately weak with its obviously fake show strikes. The Houthis, China, and others were watching, and they were not impressed.

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Has the Republican party become the party of war (or was it always)? Check the splits.

From Reuters:

Trump’s approval rating dropped to 41%, his lowest this term, according to Reuters.

A large majority of Americans are also worried the conflict with Iran could spiral out of control following Trump’s recent order to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.

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Lastly, no one is foolish enough to believe this conflict is frozen for good. Of course, it may erupt again within months—or even much sooner—particularly now that establishment mouthpieces are articulating that Iran’s nuclear program has only been set back ‘by a few months’. This is clearly paving the ground for a convenient return to hostilities when Polish terrorist Mileikowski’s regime needs another fast distraction from its ongoing genocide of Palestinians.

But if it does erupt again, Iran has likely gained a measure of deterrence given that it has shown its ability to crush Israeli cities with impunity, and exposed US’ lack of will to defend its protectorate of Israel. Thus, next time Iran may be motivated to go even farther in wreaking havoc across Israel, particularly after it ‘tunes’ its rocket systems from the current conflict analysis.

We’ll have to see what long-lasting repercussions Israel may incur from its misadventure, particularly the destruction of many infrastructural facilities at its key Haifa port. Some contend the following:

Israel's dream of a transit corridor in the Mediterranean is shattered.

📍 Iranian rocket and drone attacks on Haifa have dealt an unprecedented blow to the vital infrastructure of the Israeli regime, effectively excluding this strategic port from international trade.

📍 The ambitious project of the Arab-Mediterranean Corridor (IMEC), which aimed to transform the port of Haifa into a transit hub between Asia, Europe, and Africa, has completely failed due to the attacks on Haifa's infrastructure by Iran.

📍 The US-backed project, involving countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India, has now become an unattainable dream on Netanyahu's desk.

By the way, as another nail in Israel’s phony ‘shadow war’, Iranian general of the Quds force Ismail Qaani, who was said to have been “killed” by Israeli strikes, miraculously reappeared in the victory celebrations today in Tehran:

How many more Israeli lies will be untangled in time?

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