How Russia is Responding to New Ukrainian 'Drone Threat' to Cut Crimean Corridor
The following is a hefty ~4,400 word premium article on the current “drone scare” being manufactured by Ukraine to push the narrative that Crimea is being cut off. In it we explore what Ukraine has been achieving, with a detailed deep dive into how Russia has begun to counteract it, and why the hype will soon die out.
The first ~1,000 or so words are presented free to the public.
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Major commotion is currently centered around Ukraine’s campaign to purportedly “isolate Crimea” via long range drone strikes. This campaign is merely the latest in a recycled toolbag of Ukrainian info-warfare and psyop initiatives which spring up annually, usually in conjunction with Russian summer-time offensive campaigns for the purpose of controlling the narrative favorably for Ukraine.
The purpose is always to create a diversionary groundswell of “crisis dooming” which deflects from Ukraine’s own ongoing battlefield losses, which now mainly center on the collapsing Konstantinovka front, where Russian forces are set to capture their next large ‘Donbass fortress-town’.
That’s not to say Ukraine’s recent campaign has not had any effect at all, but simply rather that the effects are vastly exaggerated by the Western propaganda organs.
But first, to contextualize how it all developed, let us briefly delve into the reasons behind the changes which allowed Ukraine to leverage these long-range strikes in the way it’s currently doing.
The first and most important change which gave Ukraine a newfound advantage was the removal of Biden-era restrictions on the US providing targeting and authorizations for long-range strikes deep into Russia. The second, was the likewise apparent lifting of restrictions on Ukrainian Starlinks operating on Russian territory. Recall that in the beginning of the war, Elon Musk had famously said that Starlink would not be allowed to be used in an “offensive” manner. This was later swept under the rug when Ukraine desperately needed some new advantage to save its collapsing war effort—and so, Starlink was allowed to operate offensively, but was still restricted to Ukrainian territory only.
Now many reports claim that Starlink is used on Ukrainian FP-1/2 and other drones even outside Ukrainian territory.
Much of the current campaign against Crimea is also powered via Starlink. One of the newly emerging top drones for hitting Russian logistics along the ‘Crimean corridor’ is the US-made “Hornet”, which is variously seen with a Starlink panel on its back.
Here is a video of a Russian specialist disassembling the Hornet and commenting on the quality American construction of the drone, as compared to the usual ‘ad hoc’ drone designs slapped together in frontline workshops by volunteer engineering groups and such:
It brings us to the third and perhaps most important change of all: that Ukraine’s entire production “rear” has been relocated to various countries of the West, where Russia cannot touch the manufacturing lines.
The Hornet drone in question is manufactured in California by a company backed by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and there is an increasing number of “partnerships” between Ukraine and Western nations for drone and missile production constantly being announced.
The latest video out of Ukraine of a series of strikes utilizing this very Hornet drone along Russia’s southern corridor:
You can see the drones clearly have terminal AI guidance which allows them to hit targets even if jammed. How do we know they use Starlink? You’ll see soon in the next part.
That said, these Hornet drones are not infallible as this next Russian video shows:
You can see the first one badly misses and breaks apart, the second hits but does little real damage as the explosive power is just enough to blow open the truck’s canvas canopy, but not much else. This should put into context many of the “hits” seen from the Ukrainian side, as the actual damage done is questionable—depending on the target type.
Here is a photo of one of these Hornets with a big Starlink dish sitting on its back (top left photo), pointed up toward space:
Now the latest Ukrainian information campaign is hinged on strikes on the Russian Chongar bridge which connects Crimea to the mainland of Kherson oblast at 45.98784143985293, 34.55264088266542 geolocation:
But you can see for yourself, the drones do nothing but leave small potholes that are fixed in a day or less. Pontoon bridges were erected as temporary measures, which is almost an exact replay of the previous recycled campaign from 2023 and beyond, wherein Ukraine struck the bridge with Storm Shadows, likewise claiming Crimea had been “fully cut off”. The Storm Shadows did nothing whatsoever, and the now even weaker drones, which have smaller warheads, are doing even less. Their only advantage is that they’re able to be launched with much more frequency, given their cheaper cost, which could prove a nuisance.
The below satellite photo shows the bridge with minor scuff marks and a pontoon in the middle successfully facilitating the passage of trucks:
The pontoons were said to have been subsequently hit, but are easily replaceable as they are made of modular units that can be interchanged in and out.
The information campaign has gotten so desperate as to begin using videogame footage to try and elevate the hype which the strikes themselves are incapable of producing:
Even ex-presidential advisor Arestovich recently went on air to explain that the new Ukrainian strike campaign is completely overblown and will lead to nothing but disappointment:
He finishes by stating that Ukraine’s recent favorable momentum swing “won’t last long” because Russia will simply adapt to these attacks.
Countering
And this brings us to the next point, which is that Russia has already begun adapting and vastly limiting these Ukrainian strikes along the “rears” of the Crimean corridor and beyond.
So, how has Russia begun countering? With several concrete steps:
