Double-Decker Special: Hysteria Ignites as Trump Throws Ukraine on the Third Rail
Meltdown in the Atlanticist sphere ensues.
Part two of our double-decker brings us to the maelstrom sweeping through today between Trump, Putin, and Ukraine which has sent shock waves through NATO’s Magical-Thinking Wonderland.
It began with Trump’s announcement of having finally reached Putin on the phone, which was this time confirmed by the Kremlin:
But everyone appears to be misreading the above, sent into swoons of bliss or outrage over the now “certain” war-ending peace talks set to take place.
I beg to differ.
If you read between the lines above, you’ll note Ukraine barely covered a fraction of the talk, which included artificial intelligence and a host of other geopolitical issues. Likewise, Trump’s guarded remarks in press statements afterwards also left much to be desired, for instance describing the only Ukraine-related ‘achievement’ of the talks being Putin acknowledging that ‘he would like to end the killing’.
This is the clear definition of reaching: Trump’s team is trying to sell the phone chat as a much larger leap of progress than it really was. The added declaration that Putin intends to meet Trump in Saudi Arabia was empty garnish, as no urgent date was set, and they were bound to meet at some point in the future anyway. The same goes for the timed release of “political prisoner” Mark Fogel, which was meant to dress up the occasion, to add grist to the narrative that Trump is making some big ‘headway’ with Russia—nothing of the sort; this is desperate trickery to mask the major failure of Trump’s braggadocio about swiftly ending the war.
In short: the talk was the perfunctory, basic exchange of pleasantries and customary political gestures, nothing more. If you read the actual quotes and soundbites from various Russian officials, it is clear that Russia is no closer to any real negotiations, and is merely indulging the US its moment in the limelight of ostensibly ‘leading the peace charge’. In fact, I believe Trump even said he offered Putin a temporary ceasefire, which was quickly swept under the rug after Putin declined.
I say the above because I was quite taken aback by the online reactions, particularly from well-known geopolitical cognoscenti, who have flown into premature declarations that the war is now officially nigh over, and the final performative phase of negotiations will proceed from here on out. They even convincingly link the recent seeming slow-down on the front to this, painting a portrait of Putin ‘winding down’ the action as a ‘gesture of good will’. I see no evidence of such a thing, and in fact Russian forces currently appear to be gearing up to escalate again, after spending a couple weeks using long range strikes to soften up the new defense lines Ukrainian troops had retreated to. That’s not to mention the massive strikes on Kiev and other cities carried out last night.
If anything, Trump just walked back his plans of ending the war swiftly after announcing that no ‘peace plan’ would be presented at the upcoming Munich conference, but rather instead Hegseth and Kellogg would be sent to “listen to what European partners have to say” before the US presumes to finalize any kind of plan.
This is clearly a step back rather than forward, and the desperate meaningless Putin conversation was likely the patch-up job meant to give the appearance that Trump’s big brawny peace initiative was still proceeding.
In actuality, there’s virtually nothing to talk about. Not only has Putin clearly dictated that no legal document can be signed with an illegitimate president like Zelensky—which itself puts off any “negotiations” until Zelensky is long gone—but the truth is, it’s hard to imagine any legal document being signed with the West at all. Russia has long suffered the betrayals of not only the various Minsk agreements, but endless other reneged ones in the past, from the ‘not-an-inch-eastward’ NATO understanding to the various treaties US pulled out of, as in the ABM Treaty.
Putin and other Kremlin officials have hinted at this before, but signing any long term foundational agreements with the US is folly because only four years later, another deep state neocon president can steal the election be elected and immediately bin the agreement, if only to spite his previous rival. In such an uncertain political framework, in recent years known for its erratic and schizo-level politics, how can any foundational agreement in good faith be signed?
There remain many neocons still pushing for escalation against Russia which will certainly give Putin pause, vis-a-vis the point above. US congressman Joe Wilson from today:
That certainly doesn’t lend much confidence to a far-looking leader like Putin.
But there are now indications that perhaps Trump will not mind to eventually dump Ukraine entirely. His latest interview snippet evoked uproar as he outright admitted that Ukraine may end up entirely subsumed into Russia proper:
At the same time he again focused on the minerals, which began to quickly signal that Trump appears intent only on extracting recompense from Ukraine for the alleged hundreds of billions that the US gave them. The message seemed clear: Trump doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine as long as he gets his compensation.
This all while Zelensky had to endure the humiliation of meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent apparently for the sole purpose of ironing out the ‘critical minerals’ reimbursement deal, where it was again hinted that the Munich meeting would consist of nothing more than the signing ceremony for the mineral wealth handover.
The Ukrainian 79th brigade reportedly reflected on the betrayal of soon having to fight and die for American-owned ‘rare earth’ mines, rather than their own Ukrainian land:
This was followed by SecDef Hegseth’s speech today at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, wherein Hegseth peremptorily outlined the US’ priorities:
No NATO, no 2014 borders, and very definitively: no US troops anywhere in Ukraine at any time, including as peace keepers after end of hostilities. Just to make sure, he even emphasized this again:
Oh, and the other big one: any European troops ever deployed to Ukraine will not be covered under Article 5. Does it sound to anyone else like Trump’s team is purposely ‘feeding’ the European lambs to the Russian wolf on a silver platter?
NATO apparatchiks were in tatters:
What has really highlighted the oddity of this forced peace narrative was several recent statements outlining just how strong the Russian armed forces are becoming. This flies completely in the face of logic meant to convince us that Putin needs this peace deal as much as Zelensky—the sole point of which narrative is merely to push the agenda that the West needs to extract equal ‘concessions’ from Russia, as if Russia and Ukraine are on equal footing.
The main statement came from Zelensky himself, who baffled observers with his claim that Russia is now expanding its armed forces by a massive 100,000 troops, an absolutely puzzling figure given his claims of untold Russian losses:
This was underlined by Lithuania’s defense minister:
Russia's military capabilities are three times greater than they were before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė has said.
"Russia's military capabilities are already three times greater than they were when the large-scale invasion of Ukraine began three years ago. And all of this has happened in the context of an active war," the minister said in an interview with the 15min.lt news website published on Monday.
Zelensky then went on to scare Europeans by claiming after Ukraine falls, Russia will easily occupy all of Europe, as the now-swelled Russian army has a “three to one” manpower advantage over the combined European armies:
Conclusion:
Ongoing events are all an onanistic smokescreen from the West to save face and pretend that Russian power has been curbed, and Putin brought to heel. Nothing has changed, the Russian army is growing stronger and will soon redouble its offensives on all fronts until Ukraine crumbles. The chances of any ‘peace’ deal are slim, and certainly not before Zelensky is removed from power which is not even close to happening yet, with ‘talks’ of possible elections planned for fall of 2025.
In fact, in spring-summer Russian offensives will only intensify and the AFU’s back will likely be broken for good.
As a last curiosity—such is the inane nature of it—here’s an Atlantic Council piece co-written by none other than Zbigniew Brzezinski’s son:
It’s such a trite boilerplate reduction of standard establishment talking points, it’s unworthy of real discussion. However, the one last thing of note it brings up is the following:
It tediously mentions the need for a ‘coalition of the resolute’ to send troops to Ukraine, all under the fraudulent assumption that Russia is angling for a ceasefire. Think about the logic: why in the world would Russia want a ceasefire that puts NATO troops literally on Russia’s border? The entire raison d’etre of the war was based on keeping NATO away—yet Russia is going to sign a ceasefire that permits a massive NATO coalition within tank firing distance of Russian villages?
The whole idea is absurd. It just further cements this simple fact: Putin is merely playing the gracious host, and indulging the West in its bold extravagances of peace ‘showmanship’. In reality, Russia would never brook such deals, and so the war will continue on to its most logical conclusions until Trump or the West cry uncle.
As stated, a major ballistic and cruise missile attack hit Kiev yesterday, wiping out several military enterprises as confirmed by one of them themselves:
The office of RigExpert, a company that produces antenna and cable analyzers for the military, was destroyed by the Russian nighttime missile attack.
The company itself reports this!
A huge drone production site was reportedly demolished:
The Russian army has liquidated one of the largest centers for the production of FPV drones in Kiev
▪️According to information received from Russian hackers from the Special Network Operations Service, the personal computers of the company's management were hacked and coordinates for the Iskander missile strike were provided.
▪️As a result of the strike, a secret enterprise of the Stream Techno company, which was engaged in the mass production and supply of light unmanned aerial vehicles for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was liquidated.
A report from Masno, who lives in Ukraine:
Having spoken to a witness from the morning attack on Kiev. I am very convinced that Russia is using new missiles and or drones literally flying at or below tree top height. The witness saw the flying object passing his window and maneuvering...strange thing, no drone sound. So I really don't know what it is.
In the past few days, major gas terminals and other power grid hubs were hit in Chernigov, Poltava, Sumy, and elsewhere, with videos showing walls of flames lighting up the night skies at the facilities.
In Chernihiv region, after night rocket attacks, the Gnedintsevo gas processing plant is burning brightly and powerfully. There are no videos or photos.
The Russian army struck the largest gas processing plant in Ukraine in the Chernihiv region
▪️According to the NASA satellite map of fires, the missile strike hit the Gnedintsevsky gas processing plant somewhere between 03:00 and 04:00 in the morning.
▪️Earlier, during the night shelling, our troops struck the Yarovka gas field and the Yablonovsky gas processing department.
Another major hit a few days ago which left Kramatorsk entirely without power:
A comprehensive strike on Kramatorsk's energy infrastructure: complete power outage at key supply nodes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
On the night of February 7, 2025, Russian troops continued to strike the enemy's energy infrastructure. After the successful destruction of the 330 kV Mayskaya substation , additional energy system facilities in the region were subjected to strikes, which led to a complete destabilization of the energy supply in Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka .
As a result of the attack , both 110 kV power lines were damaged , providing power to industrial zones, military facilities and logistics centers. Kramatorsk was completely de-energized , which led to the shutdown of a number of production facilities and destabilization of the operation of critically important facilities. A direct hit was recorded in the Energomashspetsstal area, causing the destruction of power transformers and an emergency shutdown of distribution devices .
Technical consequences of defeats:
• 110 kV power lines were disabled , which disrupted the supply of tactical units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, supply depots and repair bases.
• Power transformers of the TDTN-40000/110 type were damaged , which led to the failure of power supply systems and the shutdown of the industrial zone.
• The operation of the 110 kV switchgear distribution devices has been disrupted , which eliminates the possibility of quickly switching loads and promptly restoring power supply.
The disabling of the region's energy infrastructure reduces the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to maintain combat capability, complicates logistics, and disrupts the operation of military facilities. The expected time for restoration of energy supply remains uncertain , making the situation in this sector even more unstable.
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Russian Ruble has soared today, as well as virtually all Russian stocks, after the Trump-Putin phone chat:
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Some have asked for recent battlefield footage, to which I’ll oblige.
Here is the full descriptor of Ukraine’s large-scale Kursk offensive that began last week:
Full chronology of yesterday's AFU attack on Cherkassy Konopelka Ulanok.
00:00 The 1st wave of the enemy's rolling towards Ulanok, February 6, 2025, time 10.08, the beginning of the AFU rolling.
02:24 2nd wave of rolling, the same direction, time 10.40.
03:54 - the enemy equipment starts to burn.
04:25 The 3rd wave of rolling up, the same direction, going the same way to Ulanok, time 11.59.
05:15 The 4th wave of rolling up, it's hard to call it a wave, it was a jump of the enemy SDF group on 2 Stryker APCs, the group split up. The 1st group went deep into Cherkassy Konopelka, the 2nd group began to try to entrench there. Footage of the landing under the Russian Army's strikes and the AFU's attempts to push the armored vehicles to the rear with the help of other equipment can be seen.
And another:
Ukrainians published a video of an attempt to attack Cherkassk Konopelka.
A fragment of the recent offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, filmed by an enemy drone.
Once again, it is worth noting the good engineering support of the attack - ahead of the advancing columns were engineering vehicles and tanks with mine trawls. But the key factor in the offensive was the heavy mechanized bridge , freely installed by the enemy across the Smerditsa River near the Kolmakov farm.
Judging by the subsequent footage, during the attack it was through this bridge that the enemy transferred infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles, which were sent to land infantry in the plantings near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka .
The following footage is not particularly interesting, as it shows the advance of enemy armor under fire from Russian FPV drones and artillery, the subsequent landing of infantry and the loss of several vehicles, which has already partially overlapped with the published videos from Russian drones.
Military Informant
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Yuri Podolyaka updates on the Pokrovsk direction, where Russian forces had been static for the past week and Ukraine reportedly launching a big counterattack which captured part of Pishchane. However, now Russian movement is stepping up again it seems, with some advances made today. But good info nonetheless:
Yuri Podolyaka echoes from the Pokrovskyi direction. There has been no movement there for a week now, the front has stood still. According to information from the field, the enemy is stepping up artillery strikes, has been hitting the entire front line non-stop for several days and is not saving shells.
The 414th Battalion of UAV systems “Ptahi Magyar” with drones on fiber optics arrived at the direction. Arrived UAV battalion “Predators”, detachment “Gostri Kartuzy” (our recently there minus their commander) and company “Skulls”. There has never been such a concentration of UAV units of the AFU before, and Madyar is thrown only on the most important - he is roaming from Volchansk, to Kursk region, Kherson, and now Pokrovsk. The buildup of artillery brigades has been noticed: the 15th, 55th and 107th.
The grouping for a possible AFU counter-offensive at Pokrovsk is assembled between Gadezhdenka to Chunishinoye: the 5th Heavy Mechanized Brigade with two battalions of Leopards, the 59th Assault Brigade, 32nd, 42nd Mechanized Brigades. Two brigades NSU - 2nd and 3rd “Spartan”, considered elite. In the near future, a huge counter-battle could break out here.
In general, the common interpretation was these short-lived localized attacks merely represent the AFU desperately wanting to put points on the scoreboard in light of all the big Trump team meetings and upcoming Munich conference. But don’t worry, Zelensky remains confident:
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Zelensky finally launched his initiative to ‘entice’ 18+ year olds to the front:
It even came with a new commercial (AI voice dub):
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This final headline steals the show today by frankly capturing current geopolitical realities:
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"At the same time he again focused on the minerals, which began to quickly signal that Trump appears intent only on extracting recompense from Ukraine for the alleged hundreds of billions that the US gave them. The message seemed clear: Trump doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine as long as he gets his compensation."
I have a somewhat different interpretation of what happened during the phone call. In general, I think you're right in that Trump may have had an initial offer from him rejected by Putin. But the fact that he treats Putin like an equal in the public statement, instead of, say, Canadian "governor" Justin Trudeau, is an indicator, I think of how he intends to conduct the inevitable negotiations with Russia. And the fact that he's hammering the "common sense" bit strikes me as him seeing how it things look from the Russian side, such as them not wanting to deal with an illegitimate Zelensky. I suspect there will be stronger calls for election in Ukraine in the future. I think Trump, far from trying to redress a diplomatic setback, is actually seeing this as a step forward. If he did see it as a setback, I think the language would be far more aggressive against Russia.
I highlight the statement above because I am seeing it as further evidence that what the Trump team wants is an off ramp instead of a peace headlined by American muscle. By highlighting the need for Ukraine to pay up on the massive American investment in light of the clear inability of Ukraine to do so, he' creating an excuse to leave Ukraine in the lurch and say that there is nothing in it for the US to keep being Ukraine's keeper.
Of course the war is not going to just stop, the objectives of the SMO have not been met.
The big news is that the US is leaving the scene, and that speeds up the time for the fat lady to sing. Russia knows it, Zelensky knows it, and Europe knows it.
Not only is Trump going to dump this on Europe, but he's cut the head off of the USAID beast, which is really the death knell.
Putin is a patient and pragmatic man. He doesn't trust the US or the West, but this is nothing but good news for Russia. It will take a long time to finish denatzifying and demilitarizing Ukraine. Trump has now said no NATO, ever. The EU will keep being stupid and outrageous, but they won't do anything, they'll be busy trying to keep their citizens from hanging them for ruining their economies and liberties.
Americans do not care about the war. They care about all our money being wasted by lying grifters, and we want the US out of meddling, bribing, and coercing, especially to the corrupt dictator in Ukraine.