Chorus of 'Corruption' as Movement to Oust Zelensky Picks Up Steam
Major efforts are stepping up to put pressure on Zelensky in what’s beginning to look like a campaign to finally evict him from power:
Rumors are that the latest is being driven by billionaire former-sponsor Kolomoisky, who himself has just stated from his pre-trial detention that he believes Zelensky’s days are now numbered.
Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who is in a pre-trial detention center, said after interrogations by anti-corruption agencies Ukraine that the country’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, would “soon be finished” amid the corruption case of businessman and presidential associate Timur Mindich. This was reported by the Strana newspaper, citing sources.
It seems spurned billionaires always settle the score in the end.
Now even famed Ukrainian Nazi Korchinsky has openly stated that very powerful people are preparing a Maidan against Zelensky:
“Serious people are preparing a Maidan against Zelensky,” — the leader of Ukrainian Nazis.
This is happening because of the corruption scandal with the “Mindich case,” claims the leader of the Nazi-terrorists Korchinsky, who are part of the GUR structure.
“As for street protests, they are already being prepared, a Maidan is being prepared, street riots are being prepared, an attempt to undermine the front is being prepared. And serious people are already involved in this. In particular, mayors of some cities or former mayors of cities are involved. The same Trukhanov is involved,” he emphasized.
We had already speculated, when the NABU controversy first began, that this was an obvious ploy by the powers-that-be to create an instrument within the Ukrainian state by which they can remove an intransigent Zelensky when needed. Zelensky himself was obviously wise to this and tried to de-fang these “anti-corruption” authorities, which immediately spurred Maidan-like protests, forcing him to back down.
The only question, as usual, is what precisely do these hidden forces seek to gain by potentially booting Zelensky? It’s not like a successor could change the tide of the war against Russia. Some options include: perhaps they merely want to reset society’s ill-will by putting in a new figurehead to boost morale for the continuation of the war. Or perhaps they want to find someone more amenable to launching full blown mobilization of the 18+ cohort to really supercharge Ukraine’s war of attrition against Russia. There are many other possibilities as well.
Now, in the gradual erosion of the Western pro-Ukrainian bloc’s position in the war, even Rubio has admitted the US is running out of options in regard to further Russian sanctions:
The United States has almost completely exhausted its options for imposing new anti-Russian sanctions, US Secretary of State Rubio stated.
He noted that Washington has already taken measures against Russia’s largest oil companies and added: “I don’t know what else needs to be done.”
In the meantime, Russia continues its campaign of destroying what remains of Ukraine’s power grid. As of this writing another massive ballistic missile attack targeted Kiev’s thermal power plants.
Hell in Kyiv: “Iskanders” struck Kyiv’s CHP plants, power outages in the capital of Ukraine
Kiev last night: all of the capital’s Combined Heat and Power Plants and substations hit.
CHP-4, CHP-5, CHP-6, Bila Tserkva CHP. Capital substations were also hit.
Over 20 Kinzhal, Iskander and cruise missiles as well as more than 100 UAVs also arrived in Kiev.
It was reported the attack lasted hours:
Some videos gave an inkling of the ferocity of the attack:
Photos of spent Patriot booster stages were seen, but apparently the missiles did little against the hypersonic Kinzhal barrage. That’s not to mention given what we now know, there’s good chance the Patriots themselves were hit, or will be soon.
Marco Rubio himself had just somewhat astoundingly admitted in the same interview as the above clip that AD systems delivered to Ukraine are usually wiped out by Russian strikes within a week of being brought in:
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Let us turn to the battlefield where Ukraine’s collapse on the Zaporozhye front in particular is only accelerating.
Things have moved so fast that Gulyaipole is already nearing encirclement:
Ukrainian MP Marina Bezugla writes:
More top Ukrainian military accounts comment on the disastrously collapsing situation:
A Ukrainian officer writes:
This report from the official Ukrainian sector forces is interesting. It lists Russian casualties as “heavy”, with 58 KIAs in a single day over the entire vast front:
If you consider the fact that both sides—particularly from the official leadership accounts—inflate enemy losses, we can assume the 58 to probably realistically be 20-30, if not less. That amount of KIA for the second most active front of the entire war is not exactly what I’d call “heavy” casualties. Using that as a rubric, we can assume total Russian daily casualties really are in the 100-200 range that we’d long estimated. If the front with the fastest Russian advances is experiencing such few casualties, then what are less active fronts in Kupyansk, Seversk, Lyman, etc., experiencing?
Footage of Russia’s liberation of Danilovka:
ENG: “UNITS OF THE “VOSTOK” TROOP GROUP HAVE LIBERATED THE SETTLEMENT OF DANILOVKA❗️
🔸Guards of the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army of the “Vostok” troop group decisively, with a combination of fire and maneuver, drove the enemy out of the settlement of Danilovka in the Dnipropetrovsk region and advanced 3 km deep into the enemy’s defense.
🔸The liberation of the settlement was complicated by the presence of serious defensive structures on the southern outskirts of Danilovka, consisting of anti-tank obstacles (ditches, tetrahedrons), minefields, and fortified firing points. In addition, the settlement is protected from the north by the Yanchur river. However, none of this prevented the Warriors from Buryatia from decisively and boldly breaking the enemy’s resistance in the shortest possible time.
🔸Thus, the clearing of the western bank of the Yanchur river continues on all fronts, and the enemy is retreating with heavy losses towards Gaichur.
🔸In the battles for the settlement, the enemy from the 154th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost not only about a company of personnel but also a large amount of armored equipment - more than 12 units (self-propelled artillery, tanks, armored combat vehicles).
🔸As a result, more than 150 buildings were cleared of enemy presence.
Also, in terms of casualties, note above the official Russian report relays Ukraine’s casualties as a full company of men just in the battles for Danilovka alone. A company should be 100 men, but let’s just say for Ukraine it’s 50 due to their manpower shortage. This is 50 men lost for a single settlement versus the Ukrainian claim of 58 Russians lost in the entire front comprising dozens of settlements. I leave it to the reader to decide which side’s claims are the more reliable.
Just northeast of there, Russian forces made a breakthrough in Novopavlovka, penetrating deeper into the town and capturing a large swath of it:
In fact, some new reports claim that the breakthrough is much deeper and most of the town is already captured, so do not be surprised to see it fall by next update.
In Pokrovsk, the situation is that the city of Pokrovsk itself is virtually entirely captured, though not yet fully swept and secured, with Mirnograd now being penetrated from both the south and northeast:
The reason such seeming encirclements do not result in complete or instantaneous collapses in modern warfare—as they would in the past—is because with the advent of drones, the trapped garrison can still receive ample resupply via the larger Baba Yaga type drones, which can regularly drop ammunition, food, and water to the besieged troops. A French reporter recently visited the Ukrainian front and implied the majority of supplies were already being delivered by large drone there:
Of course, even this has its limits and will not allow them to hold too much longer.
A fascinating Russian write-up on the Pokrovsk situation which describes the new style of modern ‘shadow warfare’ taking place there—from veteran Russian frontline reporter Alexander Kharchenko:
Battle of Shadows
Ukrainian analysts on the maps have almost completely painted Pokrovsk red. But yesterday Zelensky stated that there are only 314 Russians inside the city. Let’s try to understand this paradox.
No, the Russian army has not been ground down by the Ukrainian defense. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are operating near Pokrovsk. You can see this if you get on a van-cabriolet and drive northwest from Selidovo. There are many vehicles. But if you look at Pokrovsk through a drone camera, you will hardly notice any soldiers. The fighting for the city is ongoing, but it is not engulfed in flames, and machine gun bursts are heard very rarely.
Both sides keep their main forces 10 km from the city. Drones control all approaches, and only the most desperate daredevils can get through this barrier alive. So it turns out that inside Pokrovsk only the shadows of the two armies, which stand on its outskirts, are fighting. Zelensky clearly underestimates the Russian forces, but you will no longer see an assault in the spirit of Bakhmut. There are fewer soldiers in the city than civilians. Three people can storm one street, and the most interesting thing is that they will be fighting against three similar enemy soldiers. And all this happens in front of a dozen grandmothers and grandfathers who did not want to leave the city.
When you imagine this picture, you will stop tormenting yourself with meaningless questions. War has changed and it no longer resembles a Hollywood action movie. This battle of shadows still needs to be described in literature. Meanwhile, we need to accept reality and study the vectors of its development.
Pokrovsk is 95% taken by the Russian army, but the complete encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Mirnograd has not happened.
Building both the outer and inner rings with a front movement speed of about 5 kilometers per month and kill zones of 15-20 kilometers is practically impossible.
The current discussion is about cutting off logistics, but for Mirnograd, logistics have been cut off for quite some time. However, the fact that the Russian Armed Forces are still holding in the breakthrough zone near Dobropillya, supplied by drones, shows that even in such a situation, it is not easy to dislodge the enemy. But, as I have already written, sitting in encirclement can make sense if there is some practical purpose. For example, gaining time to set up the next defensive line, preparing reserves in the rear, or at least having negotiations imminent.
However, the only reason Zelensky has not given the order to retreat is politics, and he himself admitted this. The President of Ukraine had a rather awkward meeting with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Hnatov, who vaguely mumbled that the Russians had indeed slipped into Pokrovsk, and decisions would be made by the military command. This sounded like a hint that the situation is under control and that the military, not politicians, are making the decisions.
But he said this immediately after Zelensky’s comment, who was sitting right opposite:
I think Russia, with this story about Pokrovsk, is trying to show success on the battlefield. Then they might try to revive the narrative that we will capture Donbass. [...] This is a factor that could influence the imposition or delay of sanctions.
This is how the President of Ukraine sees the situation; from his point of view, it is absolutely unacceptable to let the Russian Armed Forces capture Pokrovsk because it would be an argument for Trump to agree to Putin’s terms, and it could also delay sanctions. Therefore, he does not care about Hnatov’s opinion (if he even has one), who lies that decisions will be made by the military, not political leadership. Although this meeting in the presence of the press showed who and why makes the decisions.
But now, staying in Mirnograd threatens the destruction of two strong brigades. We do not doubt that they can organize an orderly exit from the city and will have this opportunity for a long time, but by staying in the city, they suffer losses. Not only direct losses but also because there is no way to evacuate the wounded. Supplies can be delivered by drones, but they do not yet transport people. And the later the retreat, the greater the losses will be, unless the Ukrainian Armed Forces can unblock Mirnograd from the north. There is such a chance, but it is, to put it mildly, not one hundred percent.
Does Zelensky understand that he can now buy some time at the cost of extra losses and already scarce infantry, but in the longer term lose much more? Most likely, he does not. And Pokrovsk may become the place where Ukraine lost the war.
Military analytics
Further north, Russian forces have closed in on Seversk to the point where the city is reaching its final brink before full penetration:
In the far north, Kupyansk saw a major Ukrainian counterattack with the purpose of relieving pressure on the city. This initially chewed off a piece of the Russian flank at the spot circled in yellow below, but it did not prevent Russian forces from advancing throughout the last southernmost portions of the city and capturing most of the remains there:
A note on this ‘counteroffensive’:
Yes, reserves (AFU) were brought into battle, including those that were located several months ago in the border territories of Chernigov and Sumy regions. The “counteroffensive” on the Kupiansk front began three days ago but has not brought significant success. Currently, the Russian Armed Forces units continue to face enemy counterattacks while simultaneously occupying more and more territory within the city itself.
The hasty counteroffensive on two fronts is a typical tactic of “containing betrayal” in Ukrainian society – the result is not important here, but the image, like “we are doing at least something,” despite the collapsing directions. At the same time, the position of enemy units in Kostyantynovka continues to be unstable – day by day, Russian assault troops advance forward, and directed urban battles similar to those in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk are already visible on the horizon. However, the enemy command sends reserves to the main “betrayal” directions precisely because they are more popular in the media than Kostyantynovka.
Meanwhile, the work continues...
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Some last items:
The devastating power of Russian glide-bombs continues to be demonstrated. Here the Fab-3000 makes it clear how untenable it is for Ukrainian troops to hold static city positions for long:
Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources state Russia is on track to manufacture a mind-numbing 120,000 glide-bombs in the coming year:
This equates to 10,000 a month, or 333 per day—which is simply staggering.
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Ukrainian manpower woes continue:
Recently, a top Ukrainian figure—former leader of the Kiev branch of Azov—stated that in a newly formed brigade, there were already 3,000 ‘SZCh’ before the brigade was even formed:
SZCh is самовільне залишення частини” (self-willed leaving of the unit), or in other words, AWOL. Given that a Ukrainian brigade likely only has 3,000 - 3,500 people tops, this figure would represent virtually the entire brigade.
That said, many or most SZCh end up being forcibly brought back—though their morale after that point would likely be ‘questionable’, to say the least.
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Russia has launched a new quiet mobilization that many have not heard of. This time it is a mobilization of reservists but only for the purpose of acting as anti-air troops on the Russian territory, to defend against UAVs targeting energy infrastructure:
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Lastly, on the topic of mobilization some may recall that I had opined several weeks ago that the reason Russia’s recruitment payouts had dropped was not because it was “running out of money”, as the pro-UA crowd crowed, but rather that Russia was likely exceeding its recruitment numbers and no longer needed to pay such exorbitant amounts. Well, what do you know—I was right, and here it’s even confirmed by the ‘venerable’ pro-Ukrainian analyst Michael Kofman
German think-tanker Janis Kluge writes:
My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are “recruitment overachievers” who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets.
Of course, it’s still couched in the specious framing that these ‘overachievers’ are secondarily lowering the bonuses to “fix their budgets” in order to inject at least some negative aspect or angle to the clearly “inconvenient” datapoint. It has nothing to do with “fixing their budgets”: they merely surpassed their recruitment goals and no longer needed to pay extra—simple as that, without the fat.
We leave off with the latest Charlie Hebdo cover:
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In all the talk about the ´Green Goblin´ and the corruption, I have not heard a word about peace. This too I agree with what Simplicius has suggested; it is all about how to continue the war, not stop it. Juxtaposed to photos of the warmth between Epstein and dancing Donald, what a world we are living in now. I just don´t have the energy to concoct a proper stream of expletives in response to the situation I view everyday. ............ and the band plays on.
Thank you for your efforts Simplicius. I hope you find solace now and then through you long trudge through it all.
Sitreps at Marat Khairullen's substack provide excellent detail of the terrain Russians must navigate with their offensive. The multiple rivers in the Guyaipole region are an excellent example. The tactical maps are superb, This links to the 14 November sitrep, https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-november-14th
There're rumors Zelensky won't return from his upcoming trip to Greece. An unmentioned reason for replacing Zelensky is to order a defensive withdrawal to save what remains of the Ukie military, although that's not very likely since the Nazis will likely take over.