Ottoman Empire collapsed after the WW1 - precisely because taking the wrong side. Turkey now is not endangered by Russia, but by Israel. Russia-Turkey trade is booming, gas, oil, tourism. Close economic relations mean also diplomatic, and future military ones. Turkey is being pushed to Russia for a nuclear umbrella.
Israel tried false flag sending their missiles on Turkey in March and trying to blame Iran. Iran denied. Similar false flag on base in Cyprus, to engage the UK.
Read my post on Helmer's talk 29 Apr with Dialogue Works. Better yet, watch the show. It will require close attention because the nuance is very important to grasp.
Rubio and Vance are campaigning to succeed Trump.
Trump and his family oppose both
Rubio is staying away from Iran believing no settlement possible.
Vance is trying to embrace it and bring a settlement.
You'll have to back up that accusation. Or at least, define what you mean by "monarchist". I've never gotten any impression that Berletic supports any specific type of government. He is highly critical of the Thai government which is beholding to a King (Monarch) so, In general, your accusation is, to put it mildly, BS, meant to slander Berletic so that others will not pay attention to his outstanding analysis. [As an aside, Dmitri Orlov, has no clue what Berletic's position is but rather than weave it into his own catechism, is so enamored of himself that he, like you, talks BS about Berletic.)
Are you a supporter of American "sham Democracy". You certainly must understand by now that votes counted on machines manufactured by companies owned by Billionaires only mean that the Billionaires win.
Add to that the nearly 100% control of the US congress by AIPAC which becomes clear when one understands that 40% of American Billionaires are Jews vs only 2% of the population. Add the psychosis of "Jewish Supremacy" and Aaron Good's analysis becomes rock solid.
FWIW: I lean toward the way China elects officials:
"Beware of pretend "leftists" who say I'm "wrong" about Thailand...
These are superficial "leftists" who automatically oppose any "military" and "monarchy" - including those in Thailand - and will support anyone wearing "red" and shouting "people power" slogans, without ever looking into who is funding them or why.
It never occured to them that the US might create movements that misrepresent who they are and what they're doing - and require ACTUAL research to expose them."
You mistake Berletic’s praise for Thailand’s King for general support of monarchy. I can google my own name and monarchy and I get dozens and dozens of results. Berletic specifically praises the ChakriDynasty for keeping Thailand the one nation in Southeast Asia that was not conquered by Imperialists.
The two links you provide only recognize that the people of Thailand revere the King and that the King works for the benefit of the people.
There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that Berletic supports the establishment of a monarchy for any other nation. Krapivnik, OTOH, openly calls himself a monarchist.
There was a Sci-Fi book of decades ago where one of the characters explained that he was too busy to participate in governance of a complicated political system. He wanted it to be turned over to a benevolent Monarchy.
Were one to consider the Chinese government, it somewhat parallels a monarchy in that the government is run by professionals, not — as in the USA — by a bunch of ignorant crooks who are merely seeking to get wealthy at the expense of the population.
America is supposedly a Democracy, but it is dominated by criminals who are over represented from those associated with the Jewish Mob and AIPACs control of Congress.
I’d be happy to replace the Crooks who manipulate a recession every 4-7 years so they can steal the wealth created by labor.
A blind condemnation of monarchy without being specific as to why is not at all convincing.
I guess I need to point out that in my first response to you, I stated that Berletic was critical of the King. In my second, how he supported the King.
People express contradictory opinions depending on so many variables that one can take a sample of a single moment and prove the exact opposite.
In Bushehr nuclear power plant in North Iran, "there are about 72 tons of nuclear fuel in the reactor's active zone, and more than 200 tons of spent elements in the spent fuel pools. The destruction of the cooling systems will lead to a meltdown of the active zone and a massive release of radionuclides."
Just matter of waiting for wind from North, to cover Iran and Arab countries with radioactive dust. That will be moving East, covering India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Here entry from 23.03, when Bushehr was attacked by Israelis.
But the Empire is exhausted and desperate, let them bomb Russian oil installations and some military targets, the point is Iran is restoring its missiles and weapon production up to 60-70% and Russia is putting aside the same surplus stocks. The 80 billion EU sponsoring isn’t going to save Ukraine, from who are they going to buy weapons, South Korea, Japan, the EU has no war Industry it will take years to be at a level they can leverage and with the Iranian crisis, no oil, no gas, no fertilisers, no helium, no sulphur acid, no aluminium from what are they going to start a weapon war industry? Perhaps they can borrow from North Korea, China or even Russia they’re all much cheaper and much more effective than the US weapons that are desperately depleted.
The US isn’t crushing oil export Iran is even exporting more barrels than before the war, and all economic boycott is less than the US hoped because of the escape through corridors with Iranian proxies. The about 15 EU counties providing spare parts for the drones launched from the baltics and Finland, most if not all are provided or under licence of the US. The US is at war with Ukraine not Europe, they’re too poor and don’t have the productive capacity.
The real enemy is the unipolarity, not persé the EU and Russia and how much bombs there are falling on Russia, it doesn’t diminish or weaken this new world order. The Empire is weakened little by little, the Gulf states which will have difficulties to function the same as before the war, and according to all media it appears like Israel is untouched, free from any demolition, that’s why Milei opened a Zion parking in South Argentina for the coming of 300 thousand Israeli, the same for Cyprus, Greece and who knows Greenland?
Merz is a German and a Blackrock agent, he’s both a bit of Nazi nostalgia and a Zion mouthpiece(?)…I don’t see how Pakistan can be in trouble since it (re)opened 6 corridors with Iran, and besides Pakistan Iran has another 10 proxies to keep its commerce coming in and going out. One major thing we forget is that Iran is hardened through the decades of sanctions and boycotts, something we westerners are impossible to cope with. The US can sell its oil but at what price? More inflation and global economic recession? And how do you combine that with the extra taxes Trump put on all those countries in need of essential energy? Collapse? China will move on as silently and unstoppable as for the last 3 or 4 decades, they will re-invent themselves even if the market of electric engines and solar wind turbines slows down, to say it with the words of a Chinese ambassador, China didn’t need the US for 5000 years, so why should we need them now? You’re right the US sell their arms as fast as they can, especially to the Gulf States, and nobody got the instruction to use them they’re rusting under the Arabian sky, worse their F35 are delivered with essentials missing in their nose, because China is the only one delivering the needed rare earths!
Both Iran and Ukraine winning or losing the wars, they have undermined the image of the US hegemony and they will never recover from it, the erosion and downfall is not direct perhaps one or two decades are needed to see that they have become a minor in a multipolar world, and I see Europe struggling hair and tooth to become part of this new world, they miss absolutely the resilience of Iran and the US too has to learn the hard lessons.
No im not confused, Pakistan as well as Iran is getting used to shortages, boycotts and sanctions while the US is not used but extremely vulnerable to the least imbalance in their financial markets. Wars are going great for the warmongers, I doubt it when you got billions and you lose one that’s worse than someone having thousands and losing 1 thousand. Pakistan can profit from as well from Iranian as from Russian oil, it can be brought by the 500 trucks passing the borders everyday and it hasn’t travel the strait.
Irans oil isn’t blocked it follows the coastline along Pakistan and India, even this very day a Japanese supertanker left the Strait!
Another point to think about, why did Trump made a phone call to Putin today? Peculiar why to Putin, was it to declare his victory in Iran and in Ukraine? My ears are overworked hearing things like a paper tiger and the US strategic defeat, and these strong words come from US military, ex CIA and international strategists as well diplomats.
What use is it for Iran to have 70% of original amount of missiles if they dont USE them on their enemies? Iran has been semi-crushed, not beaten, but severly damaged and it will take decades to build up all again.
Israel is still there and doing their killing. US is not hurt. A few planes, radars is not equal to defeat.
Europe has definitely a War industry and no one bombs them…
Meanwhile Russia is bombed almost everyday. The War of attrition is very successful against Russia. Ukraine is in no way beaten.
I already posted Helmer's analysis here, but here it is again as a note, since it would be difficult to find otherwise. Iran stands ready to respond to Trump's/Israeli actions. One must examine the "whole picture".
I'm in no rush to see Russia or Iran respond to US provocations. They seem to be awaiting the results of the mid-terms. Trump is between a rock and a hard place and as such much more prone to continue the war. Iran will immediately respond, along with Hamas and Hezbollah. Iraqi militia may join in. You may see your wish fulfilled sooner than the rest of us might like.
Asiatic Global Order keeps announcing that the Arab governments are about to be "urged out of power" by the Tribes and Religious leadership. She makes sense, but I don't see any concrete results yet.
It isn't a "few radars", it is the complete destruction of 13 military bases that completely failed to protect the GCC nations. So far, only the UAE seems ready to double down on Trump's failure.
China was/is the ultimate target. The Jewish Supremacists who surround Trump are insane and will continue to push for a new attack.
India chose Israel/Trump over BRICS. They will be dealt with accordingly. The Indian Military is deeply embarrassed over the sinking of the Iranian frigate. Modi's control is slipping.
There are several possible outcomes that detail various retreats of the American Empire to Greater North America, the complete bifurcation of the world economies, the sacrifice of Europe to maintain US hegemony over "at least something".
Then there's the possibility that Trump's ultimate goal is the "Golden Billion" or reduction of Earth's population to under 1B people.
Thx for input. Have respect for Helmer, for you and others.
I understand that Iran, Russia and China with teocratic/autocratic government can wait out some leaders in the West. Be it Trump or Orban.
I just cant see that Russia or China or Iran benefits of waiting when they have enemies bombing or strangulating them.
No one will deal with India by the way. India has done nothing agressively and is just playing around like the Turks.
The ”complete destruction of 13 bases” is an overestimation. Satellite photos says that a few barracks is gone. Radars is destroyed but there is no defeat because US&Israel is continuing the War as they want.
War against Iran costed 1 billion a day taxpayers money, and the global costs economically for years to come and to restore will be trillions. Nah you don’t get it you never will, this war against Iran is an exclusive Zion war, no regime change, no uranium enrichment veto, no infrastructure demolition not even destroying the social fabric but the destruction of a civilisation. The survival of Israel depends on it, in essence the construction of the greater Israel, the third Temple and the coming of the Messiah. This is Israel’s goal and the US has a different one, stealing their oil and assets, the Gulf States under their wings till the last drop of oil and…Kushner and Witkoff realising their real estate wet dream, rebuilding all, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Irak,… do you get the greater picture?
There’s more much more, the west and the US in particular will never tolerate the establishment of a power that destroys their hegemony. Iran knows what it is up to, its annihilation of their society and the US also, the danger of losing their investment in the ME. So the war has to go on, but it ain’t no longer against Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan are involved from now on, the US the whole west and Israel have to go on with their war if not they’re finished.
They are not exhausted and desperate. Look at the young (and old) spenders in shopping moles. They want to spend and spend more and kill the planet ecologically as fast as they can. They still have jobs and enough to eat.
This degradation of humanity is a triumph of the west, and is deserved.
Capitalism is great but for who, how many fall out of this system, 90 or more %? And by the way China you should pay it a visit, it’s 25 years ahead of the US and 50 or 60 years of Europe. Why? because they are capitalists or because they hadn’t have a war the last 36 years? Talking about capitalism and what about the excesses, the Epstein, the poverty and lack of opportunityies for the many, China has brought welfare for 800 million and there’s food and housing and medicine for everyone. Really do you see Capitalism working for a population of 1.2 billion? Think about it and freedom of speech and expression, are they really free in a capitalist system like the US? They’re also censured and propaganda perhaps worse.
I have heard stories about their success, but here in Serbia there are Chinese companies. There are Chinese workers who are in position of slaves. I do not believe in their human capitalism. As Serbia is a fake/shit state, these Chinese companies even have their own police to control the workers.
I have 20 years experience as a contractor in the offshore in Rotterdam, due to the Schengen Agreement all contractors were slaves and controlled by many guards and police. The reality is to escape from slavery I had to leave Europe which I did 15 years ago, located the farthest you can think of. I wish Europe the best in their wars against Russia.
See today on Substack Glenn Diesen interviewing Einar Tangen, nothing to add only I wish I was Chinese. China isn’t the same old China from 4 decades ago, it’s a world where there’s no longer famine for 800 million people and who live prosperous and in welfare, they’re working hard to bring the whole population to the same level. Medicine and plenty of other facilities are free, no junks on the street, no outcasts go and visit China so that you can see for yourself, they’re 25 years advanced to the US and 60 to the EU. There’s a discipline, a hard way system with total control but it works for 1,5 billion people, in comparison 700 million in the EU and 320 in the US and their systems fail utterly. They’re not social they’re opportunistic antisocial. Go to China and see for yourself the same for Russia it’s no longer the Soviet Union from 30 years ago, ideal? No but better than before, perhaps I don’t know but there are farmers and American families immigrants into Russia, it makes me think what has Russia that the US can’t deliver, the US land of the free and of opportunities.
FWIW, I'd seen it repeated here a couple of times about Iran having to shut its oil wells if it couldn't export oil due to the US blockade. It was also repeated ad nausem on some twitter threads that I saw. I wondered about that, as it seemed like yet another coordinated troll attack to plant false narratives.
We know for a fact that Iran is still exporting oil - every single day.... the last time official western MSM acknowledged that, they'd reported that Iran had filled up 9 tankers in a single day. So far, the US ships haven't stopped any iranian oil tanker... has anyone seen reports of such? And yet this story was pushed so aggressively . Totally nonsensical yet we had trolls on here repeating that tripe with no self consciousness.
The other issue was that everything 'smelled' when the Gerry Poopy was reported to be back in service. I'd mentioned that the crew was already in the process of mutiny.. they'd barely been on shore for a week and now they're being press-ganged to be back on the sea in a ship that they're probably hating with every fibre of their beings. That is just simple logical deduction using a modicum of understanding about human nature. Official reports just outright lie about how long the ship has been out at sea... somehow the number seems to be stuck at 11 months.. then 10 months etc. Anyways, they couldn't keep up the pretense... forcing 4500 sailors back onto a stinking ship, would create a much more public debacle once a full scale mutiny starts. The navy brass is incompetent, but not totally stupid. They wouldn't have allowed that to happen, hence the ship is now gone.
By logical deduction - those other US ships, whether they are part of the carrier groups or supply ships going back and forth, are under tremendous pressure. The major naval base in Bahrain is kaput... gone... Shipping stuff out from Diego Garcia is not as simple as it seems, as that place is also in the middle of nowhere - supplies also have to be ferried a long way to get there in the first place. ... and then ferried again to the ships closer to the Gulf. No matter how you slice and dice it, the entire US military is under tremendous logistical stress.... heck, how many strateo refueling tankers have they lose by this time, and they aren't building anymore. So even getting back to the previous level of sorties levels would be impossible now, since US has lost access to all their gulf bases.
You get your information from the internet (your favorite source, of course), just like the rest of us; you only know what you read on the fucking internet... nothing more, nothing less.
That's not wrong, but Western mainstream media and press also get their information from social networks when they don't invent it.
It's true that on the internet, people proclaim themselves experts, journalists, etc., even cartographers, and I myself am Christopher Columbus discovering the Americas.
It’s all just information, signal noise and not much is verifiable from a frikkin armchair….that’s the reality of modern life and the “human condition”. Stop bickering like a dysfunctional knitting circle and build nice big dynamic models on your cognitive network.
So your logic says that if you get it off the internet, it's not factual. Wow. I could see your point if you relied on but one or two sources all the time, but when one goes to multiple sources and compares, he is able to make a more informed opinion, I would think. But to say that because he consults the internet to discover facts is naive is quite possibly a overt generalisation, wouldn't you think?
How am I supposed to debate someone like that cherry picks - even within a sentence? I pointed out that it was western MSM that had reported the loading of 9 iranian tankers in 1 day, about 10mil barrels if I remember correctly... and then you go on a rant that people get info off the internet and they're idiots. Seriously, what is wrong with you? *pity*
The point is that even western MSM can't keep its stories and lies straight... as they contradict each other within days. Of course, TACO does it within mins in a single rant. But it does point out that they're just spinning and spining all the time now, as they can't control the actual events on the ground.
In financial trading, there’s something called technical analysis. It’s not mumbo jumbo, as the basic strategy is understanding that big money players have a lot of very well-paid analysys doing research, and when they spot an opportunity, they would want to say, buy a particular stock, but if they buy too big of a tranche in 1 go, it would tip off the market and then they’ll have to start chasing the stock as it rose higher. So they parcel out their orders to different brokers, and build up their position over time. Technical analysis seeks to tease out that info and piggyback on their efforts.
In real life terms, we can also see what the big players are doing and if their values align with ours, we can also piggyback along. I’m telling you all this not to humble brag… or to prove anything… since your replies signal that you’re not here to try to learn anything but throw FUDGE around. China has been ramping up their fuel imports big time in the past year. High price, low price, they kept buying. It’s as if they knew something was going to happen. Hmmm… ok time to buy enough jerry cans and stabil (both for petrol and diesel) and woila, I seem to have enough fuel for my vehicles for the next year. Prices have already doubled for diesel in my neck of the woods…. so while people are yakking about the ‘high’ interest rates that they can get for their fixed deposits now, I’ve basically made more than 100% on actual fuel. That is if I sell, but likely to be burning up in my driving… but you get my point. Once the war restarted (I think of it as long pause from June ‘25), my wife actually harangued me after one of my supermarket trips… “why did you buy pasta, we still have pasta”. Why? Coz by the end of the year, the lack of fertilizers means that we’ll have famine in some places, and super high food prices in others. I get the same information as you from the internet, but you make your own calls.. I make mine. I’m pretty happy and comfortable with mine. Been doing that for 30 years now with a good track record. But I’m honestly still very humble and learning stuff everyday, you need that attitude, otherwise you get complacent and sloppy.
I don’t expect to change your mind .. again, just based on a gut feeling from your reply. Hence my long-winded explanation is to help those who are searching for useful datapoints or analysis… hopefully I provided a bit of value-added to them. Free. No charge, as I learn from others all the time. What you do with that info is up to you.
It's very important for all of us to realize that we are nobodies. All the "information" we have is filtered multiple times through editors who decide what gets posted on the internet. The entire media space is a "for profit" enterprise. The content is secondary to the need to earn a living - generate revenues.
I dont think that means there is nothing we can know. It just means you have to try to harvest from a broad range of sources, be skeptical and read between the lines.
As for the Ford, it's been at sea for 11 months and I think this was it's first real deployment after completion of sea trials for the first carrier of it's class. A normal deployment is 6 months and much of its tour has included significant flight ops. Sending that carrier home is long over due. I hate to think about what the reenlistment rates for the crew and airwing are going to be.
Plan A for getting Iran to do what we want failed. Blockade is at best plan B. A ground invasion is not in the cards. So it becomes a test of inflicting and absorbing economic pain. Perhaps there will be more bombing. If so it will be aimed at the rail and road network - focusing on bridges since otherwise road and rails are easy to fix.
Irans strategy rests on inducing a serious global economic recession leading to a significant financial crisis and upset in the Bond market.
In the meantime, lets not imagine that people in Iran are not suffering. Irans ability to endure will rest more on it's ability to organize it's basic economy to ensure equitable and efficient rationing and mobilizing labor for repair and reconstruction. This means low level civil administration and organization and a minimum of corruption. This sort of effort does not seem to have been something Iran was good at before the war. Can a leopard change it's spots.
For the US it means containing the economic costs at home and ensuring that a stronger USD does not intersect with weakening Asian economies to create a fiscal and Bond crisis. The SWAP lines are part of that effort.
For the US, the real pain and damage to the Bond market may yet be a few months out. For Iran the pain has already begun.
US has the white figures, and chooses the strategy, Iran responds.
War is ongoing, and as you say:
Plan A for getting Iran to do what we want failed. A ground invasion is not in the cards. A blockade is at best plan B.
So it becomes a test of inflicting and absorbing economic pain.
Perhaps there will be more bombing. If so it will be aimed at the rail and road network - focusing on bridges since otherwise road and rails are easy to fix.
The blockade is an off ramp. It is the beginning of exiting the war.
It is a porous blockade, as tight or as porous, like a half full glass, as needed to let enough oil out to allow Asian economies survival. A large part part of it is Iranian oil.
Trump and his people are not stupid, they understand that crushing the world economy will not make them win the elections, any elections, neither the midterm, nor the 2028.
Netanyahu/Zionist lobby is in a squeeze here,
If Ahmad Vahidi, Mojtaba Hamenei survive the war, it would mean they are out of reach of combined Israeli and US (Mossad, CIA, NSA...) intelligence and military power.
It means the team needed to assemble the nuclear bomb can be also be kept out of US /Israeli reach.
So, the real plan is to pretend blockade, pretend negotiations, but relentlessly seek Ahmad Vahidi and Mojtaba Hamenei, and the top secret nuclear assembly team in order to kill them. And this throws a somewhat different light on Isfahan rescue operation,
Isn't it easier to do a search and kill operation, than to search, find and extract hundreds of heavy leaded uranium containers .
Unless you are paddling around in a dingy in the Straits of Hormuz you really need to rely on the Internet for the marine traffic stats. It's called digitisation BTW. Saves a lot of hours and seas sick tablets. And even then you will need to acquire some very expensive steel piercing surveillance equipment. I suggest an Internet subscription to Kpler or AI may help you, though that too is using the Internet.
Add this little gem from ZH article today discussing the JUSA's new super duper hypersonic missile system...
"...justifies the move by saying Iran has moved its launchers out of range of the Precision Strike Missile, a weapon that can hit targets at more than 300 miles."
OH! But why do we need "standoff" Precision Strike Missiles??? I thought we commanded the skies over the entire (huge) country of Iran? No???
Everything you hear from Trump and Hegseth's pie holes are fucking lies... Chip
Besides the 'fact' (excuse me, himmelhund - yes, I got this off the internet), that it is still in the development stage, the missile itself costs at least $15 million and one Dark Eagle battery costs around $2.7 billion. The US needs to stick to producing graphics where its true expertise lies.
This comment section is emblematic of public discussion these days.
There's the lunatic who sees escalation and nuclear war as the solution to everything.
There's the one who mostly spits drivel and has no points to make.
There's the obligatory Jew hater who despises any other topic.
Occasionally, there's someone with an interesting point, who more often than not gets ignored.
While I appreciate the host's efforts and the chance to ruminate over the occasional useful idea, the public forum is hopelessly contaminated. Even the entertainment value is gone. Little things hitting each other is no longer attractive.
The real takeaway is that the world's destiny is becoming ever more clear, more unavoidable.
I didn’t read it as a criticism but as a fair warning, it is difficult to be an expert in the politics of a nation on the other side of the earth, especially a nation as screwed up as the USA. Don’t risk hard earned credibility unnecessarily.
I don't view Simplicius as an expert in anything, but instead a highly intelligent, person capable of excellent and reasoned commentary. He has every right to comment on anything he wishes, just as we all do. I understand why some here might not like this particular analysis, but why fall into that same mental trap he spoke about today - you can win and win and win, but if you fail to please once, you are a loser and have stepped out of your area of "expertise".
It's a weird phenomenon here that many trolls whine about the perceived lack of analysis, or bias one way or another, and yet they stay to whine again another day.
Normal people move on to something more to their liking, but these losers, such as Frantic Masturbation, just sling barbs and cry.
My only criticism is that he is falling into the advocacy trap, rather than analysis. We all have our biases and pretending otherwise is a lie, and any post will have some balance of advocacy vs analysis. I preferred when it was heavy on analysis and light on advocacy. Lately its not.
No, I was making a point, not just about Simplicius but any commentor. And what is your problem? I mentioned Simp is intelligent and and reasoned. He's not? I mentioned it's wrong to have too high expectations of someone - sometimes they don'y meet everyone's standards. Is that wrong? Biased? Fanboyish? I have criticised him on many occasions, but do I whine about him falling from his pedestal? I honestly don't understand people like you - ready to pounce on someone because they have not lived up to your standards - if you believe that, the door is located on your browser's tab and marked with an 'x'.
I've read down to here and you have said a lot, but so far haven't even engaged with a single point Simplicius makes in his post. Ofc his delivery is biased (it's a very emotive subject) but his points are all valid IMHO. Which of his points would you contest?
It's more about how tiresome and drawn out Trumpology devoted content has grown to be, all around the internet really. Especially compared to Simplicius' day in day out chronicles on the Ukraine War and its developments, which I always find to be high level
An issue driving global economic collapse, tiresome? It is all about Trump because he has made it so. But Trump fans hate this because their Great One is being portrayed as a dimwit clown. it certainly plays well to Iranian morale. Is that your problem with it?
The status of the war effort and the politics of the war effort are entirely different things. Most Americans believe that the war is going swimmingly, that all Iranian ships have been sunk, that Iran has no more missiles, that there have been only 13 US casualties to date, and that Iran is begging for an end to the fighting. Because the fat orange retard tells them this, and the Fox News Anchor and former Captain in the National Guard who is now Secretary of WAR! reassures them that we have the most lethal army ever in the history of the world.
It's not a lull, the strategic situation is shifting.
The Kremlin bet it all on making a deal, so there were no strategic moves made to prepare for a military solution to the problem.
But of course there can be no other solution but a military one, i.e. the Kremlin does not intend to solve the problem, but to surrender.
Thus the lack of mobilization and the drastically lowered intensity of deep strikes in the Ukrainian rear. Not that there is much left to hit that isn't placed off limits by political dictate from the Kremlin, everything that matters inside Ukraine has a veto on strikes on it, and everything else that matters is outside Ukraine.
Meanwhile the other side is busy mobilizing for a military solution.
This translates into Russian advances slowing and Ukraine making incresingly many successful counter attacks.
A situation very reminiscent of the one from mid-2022.
The fact that we have potentially at hand a direct conflict between two nuclear superpowers, it is wise to avoid that conflict as long as possible. The risk of a nuclear exchange between these two far exceeds the risk to the Russian state of a few attacks on Russian infrastructure that in the whole of things do not cause material damage to the state. I understand that it tests one's patience with such a strategy but this is a line drawn that must be observed or we put the entire world at risk.
Whilst I personally would love to see Russia take out CIA headquarters at Langley, the public outcry in America at such an attack might well force its government to turn to nukes immediately, knowing that they would really have no other alternative against a strong military like Russia's. Is that really true? I don't know. Neither do you. And neither does the rest of the world.
Would you truly then take that risk if you were Putin? Or would you exercise a slow death-by-a-thousand-cuts on an over-extended empire that is already teetering on the brink of economic and military collapse? Russia is really not materially affected by a few potshots at its huge fossil fuel industry. It is more concerned with the monetary policies of its central bank, which is keeping interest rates too high, thus materially suppressing economic expansion. If anyone is to be given credit for weakening Russia, it has to be shady, powerful people operating out of Basel, Switzerland.
>a few attacks on Russian infrastructure that in the whole of things do not cause material damage to the state
So we are to take it that rivers of burning oil running down the streets of Tuapse and setting residential buildings on fire, toxic fumes engulfing multiple cities, and dozens of civilians killed and maimed daily, not to mention the six-digit KIAs at the front line does not constitute "material damage" in your view?
Today a drone crashed in Kazakhstan 20 km south of Orsk.
Which could have entered in principle from Saratov into Kazakhstan, then flown 700 km to Orsk to avoid Russian AD along the way. But I doubt that.
For three reasons:
1) These are not some new drones, it's the same An-196 as always. If they had the range to get beyond the Urals, they would have long ago.
2) Notice how there have never been strikes on Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk. It's not that there is nothing to strike there, quite the opposite. Murmansk, on the other hand, which is even further, was attacked multiple times back in 2024. Then that stopped. Because the drones were coming from Finland, Finland was warned, then they halted the attacks. But if they always had the range to attack Chelyabinsk, they would have been spamming Olenya with drones from Ukraine non-stop, given that Olenya was the main base used to launch Tu-95 bombers for most of 2024 and 2025. Also, there were never any drone attack alerts over Karelia. So the drones that did get to Murmansk were 100% from Finland, and nothing flew further than the northern edges of Vologda
3) This night there was a curious pattern. The drone alerts followed the expected sequence -- Volgograd, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Samara, Tatarstan, Orenburg, then Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen. But then there was a pause of 2-3 hours and suddenly the alarms rang again for Orenburg, and then, for the first time ever, Kurgan.
So what appears to have happened, and likely on Saturday too, is that they tried to time the launch of the drones from Kazakhstan with the arrival of the ones from Ukraine west of the Urals, so that it appeared as if it was the same drones.
Then the timing was messed up for the second launch towards Kurgan.
Needless to say, these are catastrophic developments -- the main Russian ICBM bases are along the Kazakh border. Because that was the deepest most untouchable rear in Soviet times. But now it no longer is. The implications are obvious.
You know us men can form our own opinion just by reviewing the facts themselves, without having to listen to what Christoforou or Berletic came out with by a similar analytic process to our own?
Cuba is increasingly moving from a hopeless situation toward a desperate endgame and collapse. The communist party is still intact there but barely functional. What if they decide to play a Castro 2.0 Reloaded and become a Russian proxy overnight? Naturally, logistics would be the critical issue just like it was during Castro 1.0: How could Russia move there all the necessary hardware? Maybe they will opt to park two titanium framed nuclear subs around Cuba to ensure peace and love for all?
You most likely are right. However, they are a bunch of very desperate commies there at the end of the rope. I would hate to think what will happen to the present leadership in case of a major populist uprising there. That would be like 1956 Budapest, ‘The Stalingrad of Communism’.
You might like to read https://substack.com/@chinarbitrageur/p-193907805 (5th in 5 articles). It points out that the negotiations between the US and Iran are irrelevant, because neither side can admit what is developing. There are similarities with the Ukraine situation, that this is not a war that can be solved by negotiations, only the slow acceptance of what is happening. The idea that the war has gone on too long, that escalation to nuclear weapons will force Europe to the negotiating table is simplistic. This war will take 20 years for NATO to admit it is incapable of achieving it's aims in Ukraine/Russia and to accept Eastern Ukraine is Russian.
nah, it's a lull, mainly due to efficient drone saturation of the battlefield by the AFU defenders. Certainly situation is different from the onset of the Kharkhov counteroffensive of 2022, seen that Russia has enough manpower to plug all possible frontline gaps now, contrary to how it was 3.5 years ago
I already gave a pair of ideas on what that will be.
A similar technological deadlock in favour of the defender, the machine gun in trenches, was overcome by stormtroopers tactics and bracketing fire and echelon creeping artillery barrages. Same thing eventually will happen here
It’s so infuriating to listen to Trump smugly asserting that every single Iranian ship has been sunk, every one of their aircraft has been destroyed, and “83%” of their ballistic missiles are gone.
Of course, Trump is not told the truth in these matters, as it only agitates him. So he likely believes what he is saying.
There is an old saying that history repeats itself, first as tragedy and then again as farce. We are well into the farcical stage.
And you forgot Africa too ! There is a new allout offensivr including more than 10k terrorist in Mali. Sadly, I mean sadly for you, this was twarted thanks to... the Russian corps in Mali. And why is Iran still a thing? Russian help. When you hypocritically and methodically blame it all on Russia, you intentionaly forget Russia is sending help ships to Cuba and is fighting WW III practically alone. Where is China? You could say a word about Xi... But your target is Putin. However, you are right about something. Russia has lost its nuclear deterrence capability and its difficult to see how the country can bring back some kind of respect for its Sarmats. Yesterday King Charles III, your sovereign, openly called in the US congress for a joint war against Russia. But this joint war is already happening. He meant US boots on the ground. Putins transformation of Russia is at its final stage. Whats coming is a much more "assertive" Russia, as the Rands papers put it. The biggest mistake Russia could make is to fight its minion neighbours while ignore their handlers. It would be like fighting Findland, Rumania, Hungary and Italy but forgetting about Berlin in WW II.
of course Simplicius should also cover the tactical side of these Sahel conflicts, giving us the dressdown of toyota technicals and land rovers tactics during sandstorms and the like.
Given that the territory given up in 2022 because of Putin's stupidity/treason/incompetence has still not been recovered in 2026, yeah, a resounding success it was indeed
Russia is likely well aware that this proxy war will not be the last that Europe and the USA will launch, and means to conserve resources as much as possible.
Maybe a retreat into the interior to draw the invaders in, and lengthen their supply lines before counterattacking could be a war winning strategy? I wonder if there is a precedent for that approach?
He’s doing ok ..but missing that USA v Iran is not going well , but USA v rest of the world quite well . People have no idea how much oil and gas we have , it dwarfs the Middle East . E.g. XOM has 20% of worlds Helium .
Plus if things get ugly ..I would not want to be Mexico or Canada or Brazil . Add those in and USA controls the world’s fossil fuels .
Russia should help China with fossil fuels . Russia is a peer competitor to USA but not with the entire Western hemisphere
Russia should help Brazil and Mexico obtain nuclear weapons, which would dramatically change the geopolitical landscape in the western hemisphere. The West keeps threatening to help Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan get nuclear weapons if Iran gets nuclear weapons. I understand that Russia does not benefit from nuclear proliferation, but the way to deter Poland or South Korea from getting nuclear weapons is to threaten to give Brazil and Mexico nuclear weapons once these western satrapies obtain them.
Bull shit. The only oil we have by and large is heavy crude from fracking. That's expensive to extract and refine. In other words, high prices at the pump without subsidies, from an already broke and bankrupt government. The USSA MIC is already floundering because their weapons don't work as well as the competitions and are way over priced. Karma is a bitch, and it's coming.
I am sad that he is not covering the one thing I want to know about, which is Ukraine. All I hear about is the current Russian mass casualties and eventual defeat
There is no actual lull in the Ukraine war, just a Ukraine led propaganda explosion as it seeks to get the 90 billion sewn up (and some). It hasn't yet. I would bet it won't as Russia lands a sucker punch at the most inconvenient moment.
As for Iran, people attack an adversary for lack of authority to comment, when they have no other answer to the critique. WHADDA YOU KNOW!!!! Your Hegseth moment!
So we'll take this post of yours as a 'yes' to it all.
Hello Frantic. You can post what you want but, that is a pretty uniformed remark. Simplicius is right on the money and well within the realm of not only what a large variety of opinion in the occident are grudgingly reporting ............ but from people in energy, economic and commentariat circles of the southwest asia region acknowledge. Your comment is laughable to me.
Hey, “you are uninformed and laughable but I wish you well” is a good way to step down from an ugly online conversation. Much more civilized than the “hail of expletives and throwing of middle fingers” option.
as far as I'm concerned Simplicius has completely destroyed his credibility since he is obviously incapable of objectivity, or even interested in being objective
That's too charitable. He's trying to build his base by cherry-picking and spinning news reports to pander to Anti-Trump fanatics. I'm considering cancelling my subscription.
You're a liar and walking offense to decency. I do not now nor have I ever endorsed the idea of female pastors, and the clip you linked to is the first video I've ever seen of this woman.
Simplicius is using the current lull in the Ukraine War to gain credibility as an American political commentator.
There is no lull, no Sundays or holidays in war. Simplicius is following the trend, has increased his number of articles, and has lost, even regarding the Ukrainian conflict, his analytical skills, becoming a public narrator of statements from various parties, stories—including fanciful and fantastical ones—from the media and the press. I can understand him; one day for analysis is short. I also understand that he has chosen the volume of articles over quality, but I won't say anything about that, and that's the only criticism I can level at him.
Whoa! my little limerick triggered a pandemonium of replies! Testifies to the effectiveness of verse over prose: take that, Samuel Richardson!
Now there were too many replies to read them all, but I will restate the following: the "war" on Iran is a non-event, and what Trump says he will do and won't do is of no practical interest! Least of all to a man of Simplicius' talent and knowledge of the Ukraine War, which is the subject upon which his pen should meet the paper, so to speak.
Simplicius isn’t valuable because of the specific topic he covers. Plenty of people focus on Ukraine and still produce noise. What sets him apart is how he thinks, not just what he thinks. He breaks down incentives, constraints, and operational realities instead of parroting narratives.
If that analytical framework holds, it transfers. War analysis and geopolitics aren’t separate domains; they run on the same machinery of power, incentives, logistics, and information control. Judging him by topic boundaries misses the point.
If you think he’s wrong on Iran, then challenge his analysis. ‘Stay in your lane’ isn’t an argument, it’s gatekeeping.
I don't give two hoots about this Iranian "conflict" and I get submerged by geopolitical analyses on it as if it's the eventful happening that is not, each time I access the Internet.
I see Simplicius squandering his time and energies on it report after report and I say, I implore "no more please!"
1) "Trump" isn't deciding anything; he's running a playbook given to him. Project 2025 is such a blueprint. There's an agenda and the US government, no matter who is "elected", will advance it.
2) The US isn't "settling" for some kind of copium "forever blockade". A blockade of Iran is exactly what the US wants, for it's a distant blockade on China. The US hasn't even been quiet about tying this war and its effects to China. Boomer media slop has been calling China "Iran's Sugar Daddy". These freaks tie all the usual suspects together into their daily Two Minutes Hate.
Simplicius overanalyzes. The US is HQ of a consortium, taking over from the British before them. Corporate goons will raze the world before they allow other countries to rise and supplant their empire.
US+allied foreign policy is welded together to sabotage all rivals, take over critical logistical chokepoints, and prevent the loss of imperial dominance.
Once you understand this, you will understand just about every ridiculous chapter, and see the charades and smoke & mirrors for what they are. Our politicians are pathological liars, swindlers, and cheap soldiers, point men, and coat holders for the corporate mafia and banking syndicate. Note the Treasury Secretary talking like a damn US General with warships under his command? He licks his vampiric fangs like Netanyahu about destroying Iran.
Yes, the game is obvious -- Europe is the next kamikaze lined up to be thrown into the fire.
It just has to be made impossible to eliminate quickly first. Ukraine fulfilled that condition by default -- it is a part of Russia, the only thing that could have eliminated it as a proxy was the elimination of its elites, but Russian elites don't touch other elites because then there is risk of retaliatory strikes and we can't risk Russian oligarchs' skins even a tiny bit. But Europe is not part of Russia. So the way to make it impossible to eliminate is to give it nuclear weapons. Thus all the chatter about that recently.
And the Kremlin is sleeping through it just as it slept through the establishment of Ukraine as a kamikaze proxy.
The Kremlin most certainly wasn't sleeping through anything, they spent the last decade bringing their mothballed weapons factories on-line, and developing and testing new weapons like the Oreshnik, none of which happened overnight as a result of a big shock.
The Russians just never expected the Ukraine to be so suicidal, and Western backing for a lost cause to be so fervent.
The Kremlin's miscalculation appears to have been the level of Wall street and the US Oligarchs greed, and willingness to sacrifice every last gullible and suicidal Ukrainian.
Developing weapons you do not intend to use is meaningless
Meanwhile the Ukraine problem could have been solved with almost zero bloodshed and now fancy weapons used back in 2014, but Putin made a deal to buy the oligarchs afew more years of comfort instead
You seem absolutely Clueless as the character of Putin and his reasoning.
In 2014 Russia was not ready to go to war, and had not fully sanction proffed their economy and wasn't prepared to build mass weaponry.
Putin Knew the day would come when his country would need the weapons, and he was fully ready for that day on the 24th Feb 2022, except in terms of manpower, he believed that a show of sudden force against Ukraine would change their minds, and it almost did, as they were ready to sign a Peace Treaty in April 2022, until Borris Johnson told the Ukrainians not to, this leading the gullible Ukies up the war path.
Didn't need to be, there wasn't going to be a war.
>and had not fully sanction proffed their economy and wasn't prepared to build mass weaponry.
Which was whose fault? Who had been in power for only 15 years already? And Ukraine was not suddenly flipped in 2013-14, there had already been the Orange revolution in 2004-05. So either Putin sat on his hands and watched, or he didn't even notice. Either offense is completely disqualifying him as a leader. And yet here he still is, another 12 years later.
Putin warned the US and NATO repeatedly, starting at the turn of the millenium, directly to their faces... that expanding into Ukraine was going to get them in trouble
I would say that europe is in more trouble than russia today.
You can blow up russia's industry here and there.. russia will not run out of energy
If it has to keep its oil and gas for itself, its main source of income will be affected, but it will STILL have enough energy
Europe will have to buy its energy from the US and other faraway sources at high prices
Yes, it is impossible to reason someone out of a position which is not reasonable in the first place. These comment forums always devolve into debates about his little fantasy land where extreme violence is the solution to everything, including my blocked toilet. It gets a little tedious rather fast.
Weapons you intend not to use happens regularly. Sometimes technology surpasses them before use, and they are discarded. Sometimes they are developed specifically to keep the barbarians out, like nukes, and sometimes they’re built to be “demonstrated” in an attempt to prevent further issues like Russian hypersonics.
The barbarians are bombing Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk right as we speak, so just keeping the stuff for demonstration purposes hasn't done anything to deter anyone.
The first mandatory step for any such thing would be to round up all the oligarchs and the several hundred thousands liberal traitors supporting them, shoot them in some forests and bury them in unmarked mass graves.
He makes a good point: we are in the very old class battle between the rich and the poor. The rich being maybe a couple of millions today, the poor the rest. They have no saying in their future, none, zero. Thus getting rid of the elite, the root cause of all our problems, may change something before humanity falls of the cliff
Nothing about the SMO makes any sense except through an old school Marxist analysis.
Which is why the alt-media completely fails in covering the SMO -- nearly all of the alt-media is anti-communist, so the fact that Russia is a caste society in which a small elite makes the decisions and the rest of the population has to suffer what it must is something the alt-media is completely blind to.
I guess that all depends on your definition of "rich," doesn't it?
I personally am not rich.. I have a nice place to live (rented) very comfortable - in a boring european state (Not country) capital city.
I have a car and a fat motorcycle. I no longer skydive but I scuba dive and work out regularly. I have access to saunas, swimming pools, etc.
I work a part-time job for some tax-free income but that finances my occasional vacations and will prepare me for my return to the continental US in the near future when the shit hits the fan here in europe.
My point is - by YOUR standards or mine, I am not "rich," I simply have enough and a bit extra.. I live within my means and am not extravagant or wasteful, and I try to be a responsible citizen and respect my neighbors.
I am totally average middle class here, and I am INCREDIBLY RICH by comparison to most of the people in asia, africa, south america, etc.
so it's all in your definition of "RICH," ain't it.
you should maybe be more careful with your use of the term.
There are hundreds of millions of "rich" people in the west, compared to the global north and south. And those people DO have something to say, if they weren't too lazy to get involved and would get off their asses to vote once in a while
it fell for the "superstate" bullshit, all the members have surrendered their sovereignty to Ursula von Auschwitz and today they stand blankly there and stare as they are being walled into their electronic prison
I see the relationship as being like a Master and a dog. The dog goes nuts when the postman comes, the dog is spoiling for a fight, but it wants Master to drive away the postman. not to fight the postman itself.
Ahaha, no. Russia doesn't touch Ukraine's political elites just because it doesn't make sense.
Firstly, the puppeteers are not in Ukraine. They must be targeted in Europe and the United States.
Secondly, the elites will simply be replaced by new ones, with a tougher stance and with less desire to negotiate. (you have the example of Iran in front of your eyes)
Thirdly, it will simply be the glorification of Zelensky and the strengthening of unity around the flag. Why does Russia need a more united Ukraine against it?
That is a good video dk. Forcing EU/NATO into a conflict with Russia was the original Trump plan. There is little surprise there. The US will sell arms, oil and gas at inflated prices, that was also anticipated after the destruction of Nord Stream (2022). Around 70% of EU/NATO arms come from the USA. I could actually write a detailed, week by week choreography of coming events with all the gory details but I understand I am supposed to ‘upgrade to paid here’ to secure my future. Trump would probably tell me to go the art of the deal way and switch my black Chevy 1952 truck with the .50 caliber on the roof for a pink convertible Cadillac to be more acceptable. I says ‘NO! Trumpy, Im nobody’s honey! Sorry. Then – says Trumpy – comes the merciless GangStalking bot assigned to do one thing only: Degrade you for your disobedience. Big deal I says, I can always open a page to compete and take this whole game to a different level.
"Forcing EU/NATO into a conflict with Russia was the original Trump plan"
God I never realized what an idiot you are.
The CIA and MI6 have been working in Ukraine since the cold war, you fuckhead
the plan to build up Ukraine and point it at Russia was hatched 60 fucking years ago.
England has had the strategic goal of breaking up russia for a couple hundred years.
Trump was a fucking baby in diapers when the Ukraine gambit was first conceived and it took NATO 20 fucking years of expansion to reach russia's borders while trump was building fucking hotels and casinos
Trump is so beaten that nothing has ever flown, or looks likely to flow into Missouri, Kansas, and the likes. Or even just around the US coasts.
Meanwhile the US has caused an ecological disaster with its strikes now in Perm, 1500km deep inside Russia, not only in Tuapse, and it struck even deeper the last week -- Tobolsk, Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, etc.
And what did the victims' government do in response? Putin had a call with Trump lasting an hour and a half. No destruction of the US bases and logistics in Europe, no strikes on Trump himself, no destruction of the CIA and Pentagon facilities inside the US responsible for the attacks on Russia, nothing. Only the "Spirit of Anchorage".
The Iranians did a little bit better, but in the end no meaningful cost has been imposed on the people that matter by that them either.
Tovariska, GM you sound depressed again, in wartime everyone is forced to take some beating.
How about Israel? They are in ruins no amount of air defense is helping them, they are taking a major beating in Lebanon. The flat footed Israeli soldiers can't handle the Hezbollah bandits, who are fighting back without the whole NATO behind them. How about the American "golden fleet" they got humbled by the Iranians, without NATO helping them. You have to have an iron nerves for to survive the storm, by betting on scaling your capacities to outlast your adversaries. With all your worrying crying you just causing yourself lots of gray hairs needlessly. Just leave this for the big boys !
Putin is deeply submissive to Trump. On a psychological scale that is so clear. Is it possible that the so called "Russian elite" has nobody else to put in Kremlin?
It is now clear, the Russian population does not understand the situation they are in. They all want to be part of the west, at least imaginary, at least emotionally.
They do not care for Russia, as Russia was defeated in 1991. when USSR fell. Young Russians just want to travel and consume, unlike the Ukrainians, they do not want to sacrifice themselves.
I understand the point of many people here. They dream about Russia as the only actor that could stop the Evil Empire. But Russia is part of the evil show. In the end, how many countries broke their ties with Israel due to the genocide? I think, only Nicaragua did that.
So, this world is a bucket of shit.
A logical end of Homo Sapiens rule on this planet.
nationalize oligarchs, establish a sovereign fund, like a Norwegian one, put all profits from oil, gas, etc. into fund that will benefit all Russian citizens
Majority of citizens will accept, military will accept,
It would greatly help establishing a real power of the people government
It might help with Ukraine war
Ukrainians who join will become stakeholders... in something real...
3000 containers = less than 1 cargo ship. Considerably less
US blockade, sanctions, possible attack, whatever = no consequences. Everyone just stands around, Trump gets to keep playing in his sandbox
Why do you think he is able to continuously make these absurd proclamations? Because there are no consequences. Yes prices are up. Way up. Inflation will come back. GOP will get hammered in November. DO YOU THINK HE CARES?
Hormuz is gonna be closed throughout 2026 at this rate. Asia, the Gulf, and Europe will be economic wastelands in 2027. The US will be a mega exporter like 1946. Trump keeps winning because the US keeps dealing aces and kings while we keep getting twos and sevens.
There's no skill in it. The iranians should have "touched" something in the US, a port, a base, something, instead of wasting efforts hitting Dubai
The US lacks many things, but passivity is not one. They are the ultimate Just Do Things place, consequences be dawned. But those consequences need to be imposed, they dont just happen. This is where the Stern Statement crowds get it comprehensively wrong.
The US folded almost instantly when china did the RE restrictions. Pushback works but you gotta take some risk. My analysis of russian decision making is "whatever barely satisfies all factions" rather than any single cohesive argument
Containerized Shahed/Geran drones and submarine launched hypersonics should have been torching billionaire mansions in the US since 2023 the latest. It was the best way to stop the escalation before nothing less than strategic nuclear strikes suffices to reslove it (which is where we are now)
>So far I have disagreed with him about nuclear weapons being the only appropriate action
Note that me and you started having these conversations some time in 2025,. maybe late 2024.
Not in 2022.
So there might be this mistaken impression in many that I have always been a lunatic who wants to nuke the whole world.
Nothing of the sort -- I am pointing out that by some point in early 2024 the latest Putin allowed Russian deterrence to be so completely destroyed that nothing short of nuclear strikes, and strategic, not just tactical ones too, will suffice to restore it and make the West back off.
1) Had Ukraine been taken, largely bloodlessly, back in 2014, there would be no war at all. But it wasn't, because of Russian oligarch interests.
2) Had it been defeated quickly in 2022, there would be no strikes inside Russia. But it wasn't, again because of Russian oligarch interests.
3) Had a cost been imposed on the Ukrainian ruling elite immediately after the first terror strikes into the L/DNR, not even across the official border (but it was an absolute must ones cross-border terror began), a cost measured in key individuals being physically taken out in punishment for each such transgression, they would have realized that being a Western kamikaze proxy is a losing game and the whole scheme would have fallen apart. But that wasn't done, because of Russian oligarch interests. And some orders from Tel Aviv. With the two things being closely connected.
4) Had conventional strikes on the Western oligarchy begun in response to Western weapons starting to hit Russian civilians and infrastructure, the Western oligarchy maybe would have backed off. But that wasn't done either, because, again, Russian oligarch interests.
And the more you erode deterrence, the more drastic measures you have to take to restore it. Eventually we surpassed the point beyond which anything short of strategic nuclear strikes will have a meaningful effect.
You will understand it eventually. Or rather, accept it -- we have had many exchanges in which I have outlined the reasons why and I know you understand it, you just haven't yet fully dealt with the emotional aspect of it.
Tactical nukes -- military targets, some infrastructure, etc.
Strategic nukes -- wiping out cities.
That is the distinction.
You generally need bigger nukes to wipe out cities, but there is plenty of overlap.
The problem is that the suicide pact nature of the NATO alliance makes it so that token symbolic conventional strikes will only generate a much bigger war because they will now trigger the involvement of all of Europe. Tactical nuclear ones on factories likely will have a similar effect. So the first strike on any given counrty should be also the one that ends its whole existence permanently, so that there is nobody left to demand retaliation and so that everyone else gets the message to back off or else in the most unmistakable terms.
Do I like that idea? In general, no, though there are some countries in Europe where even the general population has in fact fully earned such a treatment. Still, it's a monstrous thing to do. But this is cold hard geostrategy and game theory, and that is what the situation dictates.
Elena, this was a subject before. Putin actually pacified and trained the Russian oligarchic class close to two decades ago. Some moved to israhell, others moved to jail and others again moved to the UK buying $100 million apartments there. Those who remained toe the party line: NO Politics, Yes business. It goes back to Putin’s old invitation to a general meeting with the oligarchic class close to two decades ago. When they arrived on the edge of Moscow at an orientation point they were led to an old dacha, Stalin’s old home on the edge of Moscow where he died in 1953 (he was poisoned by Lavrentiy Beria). Every one of them did get the message. I as a specialist in Soviet/Russian history can assure you about that.
I am recognizing the fact that the war is mismanaged to a degree, Regardless; Russian nuclear deterrent is intact, improving and functional. The US/zionist macho dream of walking over Russia is simply not realistic.
I am in no way an "expert" on internal Russian policy or Mr. Putin's personality, but it appears clear to me that he is an intelligent and cultured man (as is Mr. Lavrov) and as such cannot but know that at this stage of the game there is no possibility of Russia ever joining the "West", if by West we mean North America and primarily northwestern Europe. My own guess (and I emphasize "guess") is that from what he and Mr. Lavrov have seen first-hand of the state of the "West" and its leadership at present, they would neither wish to join it nor import its "brand" into Russia.
I'll concede to your greater familiarity with the societies under discussion, but perhaps things have changed in the past 14 years? Hard for me to imagine the Russians would like to join "The Club" as it's presently constituted. but that might be a simple case of projection on my part.
No meaningful cost has been imposed on the people who matter.
1) The Dow is where it was at the beginning of the war, i.e. their stock market portfolios are OK
2) Not that those matter as much as people think, what matters is real ownership of the economy, and what invariably happens during drastic economic crises in the last several decades is upwards redistribution of that control
3) No member of the Western ruling elites has been taken out physically
4) No infrastructure of importance has been taken out in the West. Or even really in Israel -- the IRGC was much more serious about its strikes on Israel during the 12-Day War than in March 2026, something that somehow nobody wants to pay serious attention to.
5) No US ships have been sunk
6) Losses in aircraft are a lot lower than even Desert Storm.
Am in general agreement with everything you're saying. The real iranian "danger zone" is within its borders and maybe within the gulf itself, but thats it. And a global recession was more or less a done deal weeks ago, so DC may be thinking "if we are going to pay the price anyway, may as well go all the way"
It helps to have thugs like Hegseth and Bassent as lieutenants, too. And you know, I say this as a natural opponent of the theocrats... but I digress
USA is being belatedly forced to admit that the losses due to the bombing of us airbases in the gulf states are much higher than previously acknowledged (13 casualties all on the first day is still the official number)
“Dozens” of aircraft are now acknowledged to have been destroyed on the ground, along with substantial losses of reconnaissance assets, and destruction of the bases themselves, forcing military personnel to relocate to local hotels, where they are quite vulnerable to assassination attempts.
They classified casualties at the start of the war, someone mentioned 900 dead and 5000 injuries how true who knows ….no one does because the usa is 100% pure bullshit led
The school was supposed to have been evacuated, that was the official plan. Their blood is on Iranians who didn't clear out the building. Context matters.
and you have no idea what has been taken out in israel... not even your favorite internet sources know that
essentially, this is an adventure and an experiement in teaching iran a lesson - that the uranians will not be allowed to dictate world economics because of their proximity to the Persian Gulf.
If they want to withhold their own oil from the market, that is their legal right, but they don't have a legal right to interfere with shipping.
A - there are no part of the IMO treaty (as the USA is not either)
B - Iran has the right to defend itself against a war of aggression (the biggest war crime according to the established Nürnberg right.
C- The straight of Hormuz is Irans national water and economic zone of interest. That gives them every right according to international law to handle their national interests there as they see fit.
When you choose to go to war you must be prepared for all contingencies- not the US - only concern is the Nov election per MSM- then King Chuck comes to visit and is allowed to address Congress about our engaging in WWIII with Russia and gets a standing ovation- we are lost when those who purportedly represent us sell out to another version of Bibi with their endorsement- another non- American suggesting we engage in further war/s for what - billionaire King Chuck could rescue his country with his personal wealth but he wants us to do it. NATO must be preserved so we can go to war with what and why? Pea shooters, slingshot, water pistols - our missiles are in short supply but talk is cheap and dangerous. Deluded old men with dreams of glory - war is different in 2026- no one in Europe has a large enough and capable enough standing military to engage in these fantasies. Where is an adult in this deluded mess?
The 3rd rate shit show that is the US of Asses, continues its journey down the S bend of history much to the amusement of the rest of the world. Sad for the Zionist parasite , it will have to find a new host.
Could be tricky as not a lot of born again cretins in the rest of the world to believe the current expat Polish population of the Disneyland version of “Israel” have some connection to their dumbed down happy clapper version of a religion.
Although Modi and India might be an option based his visit to Nobbyyahoo, the day before the Zionist twosome attacked Iran. He just might be dumb enough, based on that alone.
Don't know if it's been mentioned here before, but the origin if the word "cretin" comes from the French comment with respect to someone of subnormal intelligence "Il et un bon chrétien" or something to that effect, that being the only non-offensive description of him that could be given. It seems to be the bon mot for the "born-again" crew, particularly the Zionist wing such as Hegseth and Huckabee.
Iran is definitely in control here. And is anyone even paying attention to Trump anymore . However , while the USA is suffering a bit of pain at the pump we are doing quite well v the rest of the world . As the price of oil increases, the US frackers are champing at the bit to get …fracking again . Also who knew XOM has 20% of the world’s Helium. So while Iran has embarrassed the US , economically we are doing OK . Note the explosion in stock prices .
Now when we talk about our national debt …that is a different story as is our “ reserve currency “ . Why the heck we are in Iran is beyond me but the Israel Lobby is surely to blame .
Not mentioned here but increasingly by John Mearshimer is the increase threat of deployment of nuclear weapons . How will Israel react if Trump licks his wounds and leaves . Axios is reporting he thinks Israel did him wrong. How will Israel react ? They have nukes . Also there are reports that Russian advisors are getting impatient . Mearshimer mentions a name but I forget .
Simplicus would know . He told Mearshimer he is telling Putin to deliver a nuke and “ correct “ Europe’s thinking about aiding Ukraine .
Mearsheimer has to find something to talk about because he senses that people have figured out that he already said everything he has to say about 5 months ago
He has nothing new or even interesting to talk about... it's over, John... take your retirement and get the fuck out
last question: whoa,whoa,whoa, and what about Is-real* ??? Maybe Trump could invite Netanyahoo* to WH, for extended vacation and new training in how to build the new baalroom*?
It may be the best thing for him to do is pack it in. If you haven’t had a chance to read it yet, yesterday I published a piece examining an important point that many Blockade Hawks have downplayed: Gulf allies are only 12–34 days behind Iran on storage pressure. If Tehran decides to wait it out, we could see much broader production shut-ins across the region — not just in Iran.
The article looks at the practical reality of the Strait of Hormuz as a shared chokepoint and what that means for both sides.
"yesterday I published a piece examining an important point that many Blockade Hawks have downplayed: Gulf allies are only 12–34 days behind Iran on storage pressure. If Tehran decides to wait it out, we could see much broader production shut-ins across the region — not just in Iran."
Even if we accept that as true, why should Trump care? He personally will not suffer, and that is the only thing he cares about.
For that matter, the Americans are perfectly happy to smash everything up, if that is the price of not losing any part of their hegemony.
A clusterfuck of epic proportions. While we can calculate the damage done by the price of oil I think the political fallout might be the biggest salvo of all. And I don’t just mean for Trump and his Admin. The prestige of the United States has taken an incalculable toll. And everybody knows.
I like the vision you paint. Not the outcome but the inevitability of it.
One correction in my opinion.
Turkey will not ally with Russia, its an archenemy.
It will maneuver around as it has done since WW1.
Ottoman Empire collapsed after the WW1 - precisely because taking the wrong side. Turkey now is not endangered by Russia, but by Israel. Russia-Turkey trade is booming, gas, oil, tourism. Close economic relations mean also diplomatic, and future military ones. Turkey is being pushed to Russia for a nuclear umbrella.
Israel tried false flag sending their missiles on Turkey in March and trying to blame Iran. Iran denied. Similar false flag on base in Cyprus, to engage the UK.
"Vance is too weak to oppose."
the VP does not OPPOSE THE PRESIDENT, nitwit
No? Executive branch (VP) working together with legislative branch removing the president in line with the 25th amendment?
Isn't that opposing the president?
Your deeply adolescent personality is on full exhibition today. Lay off the schnapps, eh?
Adolescent? Or senile demented, rather? Who knows ..
I've never seen so many posts by someone that says absolutely nothing.
Read my post on Helmer's talk 29 Apr with Dialogue Works. Better yet, watch the show. It will require close attention because the nuance is very important to grasp.
Rubio and Vance are campaigning to succeed Trump.
Trump and his family oppose both
Rubio is staying away from Iran believing no settlement possible.
Vance is trying to embrace it and bring a settlement.
Other than the use of Nukes, you are channeling Brian Berletic. Just in case others didn't grasp that point.
I don't read any of Berletic. He is a monarchist. But I know him and I despise him for long
You'll have to back up that accusation. Or at least, define what you mean by "monarchist". I've never gotten any impression that Berletic supports any specific type of government. He is highly critical of the Thai government which is beholding to a King (Monarch) so, In general, your accusation is, to put it mildly, BS, meant to slander Berletic so that others will not pay attention to his outstanding analysis. [As an aside, Dmitri Orlov, has no clue what Berletic's position is but rather than weave it into his own catechism, is so enamored of himself that he, like you, talks BS about Berletic.)
Are you a supporter of American "sham Democracy". You certainly must understand by now that votes counted on machines manufactured by companies owned by Billionaires only mean that the Billionaires win.
Add to that the nearly 100% control of the US congress by AIPAC which becomes clear when one understands that 40% of American Billionaires are Jews vs only 2% of the population. Add the psychosis of "Jewish Supremacy" and Aaron Good's analysis becomes rock solid.
FWIW: I lean toward the way China elects officials:
https://www.noemamag.com/what-the-west-misunderstands-about-power-in-china/
Brian describes himself as a monarchist.
Just google "Brian Berletic monarchist"
"The New Atlas extends its condolences to the Thai people over the passing of Queen Sirikit, 93. She was the queen of Thailand's late King Rama 9."
https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1982297244096504140
"On the Thai King's Birthday: Western Lies vs. Reality"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVBeaT5xm3o
"Beware of pretend "leftists" who say I'm "wrong" about Thailand...
These are superficial "leftists" who automatically oppose any "military" and "monarchy" - including those in Thailand - and will support anyone wearing "red" and shouting "people power" slogans, without ever looking into who is funding them or why.
It never occured to them that the US might create movements that misrepresent who they are and what they're doing - and require ACTUAL research to expose them."
https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1939915903958937886
You mistake Berletic’s praise for Thailand’s King for general support of monarchy. I can google my own name and monarchy and I get dozens and dozens of results. Berletic specifically praises the ChakriDynasty for keeping Thailand the one nation in Southeast Asia that was not conquered by Imperialists.
The two links you provide only recognize that the people of Thailand revere the King and that the King works for the benefit of the people.
There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that Berletic supports the establishment of a monarchy for any other nation. Krapivnik, OTOH, openly calls himself a monarchist.
There was a Sci-Fi book of decades ago where one of the characters explained that he was too busy to participate in governance of a complicated political system. He wanted it to be turned over to a benevolent Monarchy.
Were one to consider the Chinese government, it somewhat parallels a monarchy in that the government is run by professionals, not — as in the USA — by a bunch of ignorant crooks who are merely seeking to get wealthy at the expense of the population.
America is supposedly a Democracy, but it is dominated by criminals who are over represented from those associated with the Jewish Mob and AIPACs control of Congress.
I’d be happy to replace the Crooks who manipulate a recession every 4-7 years so they can steal the wealth created by labor.
A blind condemnation of monarchy without being specific as to why is not at all convincing.
I guess I need to point out that in my first response to you, I stated that Berletic was critical of the King. In my second, how he supported the King.
People express contradictory opinions depending on so many variables that one can take a sample of a single moment and prove the exact opposite.
In Bushehr nuclear power plant in North Iran, "there are about 72 tons of nuclear fuel in the reactor's active zone, and more than 200 tons of spent elements in the spent fuel pools. The destruction of the cooling systems will lead to a meltdown of the active zone and a massive release of radionuclides."
Just matter of waiting for wind from North, to cover Iran and Arab countries with radioactive dust. That will be moving East, covering India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Here entry from 23.03, when Bushehr was attacked by Israelis.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/159576
But the Empire is exhausted and desperate, let them bomb Russian oil installations and some military targets, the point is Iran is restoring its missiles and weapon production up to 60-70% and Russia is putting aside the same surplus stocks. The 80 billion EU sponsoring isn’t going to save Ukraine, from who are they going to buy weapons, South Korea, Japan, the EU has no war Industry it will take years to be at a level they can leverage and with the Iranian crisis, no oil, no gas, no fertilisers, no helium, no sulphur acid, no aluminium from what are they going to start a weapon war industry? Perhaps they can borrow from North Korea, China or even Russia they’re all much cheaper and much more effective than the US weapons that are desperately depleted.
The US isn’t crushing oil export Iran is even exporting more barrels than before the war, and all economic boycott is less than the US hoped because of the escape through corridors with Iranian proxies. The about 15 EU counties providing spare parts for the drones launched from the baltics and Finland, most if not all are provided or under licence of the US. The US is at war with Ukraine not Europe, they’re too poor and don’t have the productive capacity.
The real enemy is the unipolarity, not persé the EU and Russia and how much bombs there are falling on Russia, it doesn’t diminish or weaken this new world order. The Empire is weakened little by little, the Gulf states which will have difficulties to function the same as before the war, and according to all media it appears like Israel is untouched, free from any demolition, that’s why Milei opened a Zion parking in South Argentina for the coming of 300 thousand Israeli, the same for Cyprus, Greece and who knows Greenland?
Merz is a German and a Blackrock agent, he’s both a bit of Nazi nostalgia and a Zion mouthpiece(?)…I don’t see how Pakistan can be in trouble since it (re)opened 6 corridors with Iran, and besides Pakistan Iran has another 10 proxies to keep its commerce coming in and going out. One major thing we forget is that Iran is hardened through the decades of sanctions and boycotts, something we westerners are impossible to cope with. The US can sell its oil but at what price? More inflation and global economic recession? And how do you combine that with the extra taxes Trump put on all those countries in need of essential energy? Collapse? China will move on as silently and unstoppable as for the last 3 or 4 decades, they will re-invent themselves even if the market of electric engines and solar wind turbines slows down, to say it with the words of a Chinese ambassador, China didn’t need the US for 5000 years, so why should we need them now? You’re right the US sell their arms as fast as they can, especially to the Gulf States, and nobody got the instruction to use them they’re rusting under the Arabian sky, worse their F35 are delivered with essentials missing in their nose, because China is the only one delivering the needed rare earths!
Both Iran and Ukraine winning or losing the wars, they have undermined the image of the US hegemony and they will never recover from it, the erosion and downfall is not direct perhaps one or two decades are needed to see that they have become a minor in a multipolar world, and I see Europe struggling hair and tooth to become part of this new world, they miss absolutely the resilience of Iran and the US too has to learn the hard lessons.
No im not confused, Pakistan as well as Iran is getting used to shortages, boycotts and sanctions while the US is not used but extremely vulnerable to the least imbalance in their financial markets. Wars are going great for the warmongers, I doubt it when you got billions and you lose one that’s worse than someone having thousands and losing 1 thousand. Pakistan can profit from as well from Iranian as from Russian oil, it can be brought by the 500 trucks passing the borders everyday and it hasn’t travel the strait.
Irans oil isn’t blocked it follows the coastline along Pakistan and India, even this very day a Japanese supertanker left the Strait!
Another point to think about, why did Trump made a phone call to Putin today? Peculiar why to Putin, was it to declare his victory in Iran and in Ukraine? My ears are overworked hearing things like a paper tiger and the US strategic defeat, and these strong words come from US military, ex CIA and international strategists as well diplomats.
You dont get it, eeh?
What use is it for Iran to have 70% of original amount of missiles if they dont USE them on their enemies? Iran has been semi-crushed, not beaten, but severly damaged and it will take decades to build up all again.
Israel is still there and doing their killing. US is not hurt. A few planes, radars is not equal to defeat.
Europe has definitely a War industry and no one bombs them…
Meanwhile Russia is bombed almost everyday. The War of attrition is very successful against Russia. Ukraine is in no way beaten.
Mikey, Helmer disagrees with you.
I already posted Helmer's analysis here, but here it is again as a note, since it would be difficult to find otherwise. Iran stands ready to respond to Trump's/Israeli actions. One must examine the "whole picture".
I'm in no rush to see Russia or Iran respond to US provocations. They seem to be awaiting the results of the mid-terms. Trump is between a rock and a hard place and as such much more prone to continue the war. Iran will immediately respond, along with Hamas and Hezbollah. Iraqi militia may join in. You may see your wish fulfilled sooner than the rest of us might like.
Asiatic Global Order keeps announcing that the Arab governments are about to be "urged out of power" by the Tribes and Religious leadership. She makes sense, but I don't see any concrete results yet.
It isn't a "few radars", it is the complete destruction of 13 military bases that completely failed to protect the GCC nations. So far, only the UAE seems ready to double down on Trump's failure.
China was/is the ultimate target. The Jewish Supremacists who surround Trump are insane and will continue to push for a new attack.
India chose Israel/Trump over BRICS. They will be dealt with accordingly. The Indian Military is deeply embarrassed over the sinking of the Iranian frigate. Modi's control is slipping.
There are several possible outcomes that detail various retreats of the American Empire to Greater North America, the complete bifurcation of the world economies, the sacrifice of Europe to maintain US hegemony over "at least something".
Then there's the possibility that Trump's ultimate goal is the "Golden Billion" or reduction of Earth's population to under 1B people.
https://substack.com/@fijirefugee/note/c-251523958
Thx for input. Have respect for Helmer, for you and others.
I understand that Iran, Russia and China with teocratic/autocratic government can wait out some leaders in the West. Be it Trump or Orban.
I just cant see that Russia or China or Iran benefits of waiting when they have enemies bombing or strangulating them.
No one will deal with India by the way. India has done nothing agressively and is just playing around like the Turks.
The ”complete destruction of 13 bases” is an overestimation. Satellite photos says that a few barracks is gone. Radars is destroyed but there is no defeat because US&Israel is continuing the War as they want.
The old saying comes to mind,
"Never Interfere With an Enemy While He’s in the Process of Destroying Himself"
Helmer's point about the Russian Oligarchy, especially Kirill Dmitriev, needs strong consideration.
It is true but then you need to know who is destroying himself.
People staying out: Xi, Modi, Erdogan, Lula, Salman and Kim (there is more of them)
People destroying themselves: Whole of Europe, Trump, Putin and the
”hero” Zelensky.
People benefitting whatever happens: Netanyahu
War against Iran costed 1 billion a day taxpayers money, and the global costs economically for years to come and to restore will be trillions. Nah you don’t get it you never will, this war against Iran is an exclusive Zion war, no regime change, no uranium enrichment veto, no infrastructure demolition not even destroying the social fabric but the destruction of a civilisation. The survival of Israel depends on it, in essence the construction of the greater Israel, the third Temple and the coming of the Messiah. This is Israel’s goal and the US has a different one, stealing their oil and assets, the Gulf States under their wings till the last drop of oil and…Kushner and Witkoff realising their real estate wet dream, rebuilding all, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Irak,… do you get the greater picture?
There’s more much more, the west and the US in particular will never tolerate the establishment of a power that destroys their hegemony. Iran knows what it is up to, its annihilation of their society and the US also, the danger of losing their investment in the ME. So the war has to go on, but it ain’t no longer against Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan are involved from now on, the US the whole west and Israel have to go on with their war if not they’re finished.
Ok, Guido. If you read my comments you will understand that we agree on above.
"What use is it for Iran to have 70% of original amount of missiles if they dont USE them on their enemies?"
I am sure that they know better than all of us what to use and when.
Decades to rebuild Iran? Chinese literally build things over night. Iran is nation of engineers and scientists, what are you talking about.
Ukrainian constitution says "preserve Ukrainian gene pool". They have been fucked for a while now.
They are not exhausted and desperate. Look at the young (and old) spenders in shopping moles. They want to spend and spend more and kill the planet ecologically as fast as they can. They still have jobs and enough to eat.
This degradation of humanity is a triumph of the west, and is deserved.
Everybody likes capitalism today.
Capitalism is great but for who, how many fall out of this system, 90 or more %? And by the way China you should pay it a visit, it’s 25 years ahead of the US and 50 or 60 years of Europe. Why? because they are capitalists or because they hadn’t have a war the last 36 years? Talking about capitalism and what about the excesses, the Epstein, the poverty and lack of opportunityies for the many, China has brought welfare for 800 million and there’s food and housing and medicine for everyone. Really do you see Capitalism working for a population of 1.2 billion? Think about it and freedom of speech and expression, are they really free in a capitalist system like the US? They’re also censured and propaganda perhaps worse.
I have heard stories about their success, but here in Serbia there are Chinese companies. There are Chinese workers who are in position of slaves. I do not believe in their human capitalism. As Serbia is a fake/shit state, these Chinese companies even have their own police to control the workers.
This bellow is not a lie.
https://chinalaborwatch.org/unseen-workers-conditions-of-foreign-workers-in-serbia/
I have 20 years experience as a contractor in the offshore in Rotterdam, due to the Schengen Agreement all contractors were slaves and controlled by many guards and police. The reality is to escape from slavery I had to leave Europe which I did 15 years ago, located the farthest you can think of. I wish Europe the best in their wars against Russia.
You were a Chinese contractor in Rotterdam?
See today on Substack Glenn Diesen interviewing Einar Tangen, nothing to add only I wish I was Chinese. China isn’t the same old China from 4 decades ago, it’s a world where there’s no longer famine for 800 million people and who live prosperous and in welfare, they’re working hard to bring the whole population to the same level. Medicine and plenty of other facilities are free, no junks on the street, no outcasts go and visit China so that you can see for yourself, they’re 25 years advanced to the US and 60 to the EU. There’s a discipline, a hard way system with total control but it works for 1,5 billion people, in comparison 700 million in the EU and 320 in the US and their systems fail utterly. They’re not social they’re opportunistic antisocial. Go to China and see for yourself the same for Russia it’s no longer the Soviet Union from 30 years ago, ideal? No but better than before, perhaps I don’t know but there are farmers and American families immigrants into Russia, it makes me think what has Russia that the US can’t deliver, the US land of the free and of opportunities.
>NOW it appears that Kazakhstan is ALSO allowing its air space to be used by "Ukraine"
They are launched from Kazakhstan in fact
BTW, drone alerts were issued for Perm and Sverdlovsk again in the last two hours
Thats why I ended my paid subscription. I will renew if Simplicius goes back to his origins. But what do I know?
?
FWIW, I'd seen it repeated here a couple of times about Iran having to shut its oil wells if it couldn't export oil due to the US blockade. It was also repeated ad nausem on some twitter threads that I saw. I wondered about that, as it seemed like yet another coordinated troll attack to plant false narratives.
We know for a fact that Iran is still exporting oil - every single day.... the last time official western MSM acknowledged that, they'd reported that Iran had filled up 9 tankers in a single day. So far, the US ships haven't stopped any iranian oil tanker... has anyone seen reports of such? And yet this story was pushed so aggressively . Totally nonsensical yet we had trolls on here repeating that tripe with no self consciousness.
The other issue was that everything 'smelled' when the Gerry Poopy was reported to be back in service. I'd mentioned that the crew was already in the process of mutiny.. they'd barely been on shore for a week and now they're being press-ganged to be back on the sea in a ship that they're probably hating with every fibre of their beings. That is just simple logical deduction using a modicum of understanding about human nature. Official reports just outright lie about how long the ship has been out at sea... somehow the number seems to be stuck at 11 months.. then 10 months etc. Anyways, they couldn't keep up the pretense... forcing 4500 sailors back onto a stinking ship, would create a much more public debacle once a full scale mutiny starts. The navy brass is incompetent, but not totally stupid. They wouldn't have allowed that to happen, hence the ship is now gone.
By logical deduction - those other US ships, whether they are part of the carrier groups or supply ships going back and forth, are under tremendous pressure. The major naval base in Bahrain is kaput... gone... Shipping stuff out from Diego Garcia is not as simple as it seems, as that place is also in the middle of nowhere - supplies also have to be ferried a long way to get there in the first place. ... and then ferried again to the ships closer to the Gulf. No matter how you slice and dice it, the entire US military is under tremendous logistical stress.... heck, how many strateo refueling tankers have they lose by this time, and they aren't building anymore. So even getting back to the previous level of sorties levels would be impossible now, since US has lost access to all their gulf bases.
"We know for a fact."
No, you don't know shit
You get your info from the internet (your favorite sources, of course) just like the rest of us
you know only what you read on the fucking internet... no more, no less.
but you are apparently unable to recognize that fact, so you think you know "the truth."
that is very naive, little friend. Very naive of you
You get your information from the internet (your favorite source, of course), just like the rest of us; you only know what you read on the fucking internet... nothing more, nothing less.
That's not wrong, but Western mainstream media and press also get their information from social networks when they don't invent it.
It's true that on the internet, people proclaim themselves experts, journalists, etc., even cartographers, and I myself am Christopher Columbus discovering the Americas.
It’s all just information, signal noise and not much is verifiable from a frikkin armchair….that’s the reality of modern life and the “human condition”. Stop bickering like a dysfunctional knitting circle and build nice big dynamic models on your cognitive network.
Would you like me to knit a hat with "cognitive" written on it?
Knit 5 and sell them on etsy
So your logic says that if you get it off the internet, it's not factual. Wow. I could see your point if you relied on but one or two sources all the time, but when one goes to multiple sources and compares, he is able to make a more informed opinion, I would think. But to say that because he consults the internet to discover facts is naive is quite possibly a overt generalisation, wouldn't you think?
The only facts we know are the Gospel truth as preached by Hegseth (and maybe what we can glean from the Dead Sea Scrolls)
Comedy Gold
How am I supposed to debate someone like that cherry picks - even within a sentence? I pointed out that it was western MSM that had reported the loading of 9 iranian tankers in 1 day, about 10mil barrels if I remember correctly... and then you go on a rant that people get info off the internet and they're idiots. Seriously, what is wrong with you? *pity*
The point is that even western MSM can't keep its stories and lies straight... as they contradict each other within days. Of course, TACO does it within mins in a single rant. But it does point out that they're just spinning and spining all the time now, as they can't control the actual events on the ground.
In financial trading, there’s something called technical analysis. It’s not mumbo jumbo, as the basic strategy is understanding that big money players have a lot of very well-paid analysys doing research, and when they spot an opportunity, they would want to say, buy a particular stock, but if they buy too big of a tranche in 1 go, it would tip off the market and then they’ll have to start chasing the stock as it rose higher. So they parcel out their orders to different brokers, and build up their position over time. Technical analysis seeks to tease out that info and piggyback on their efforts.
In real life terms, we can also see what the big players are doing and if their values align with ours, we can also piggyback along. I’m telling you all this not to humble brag… or to prove anything… since your replies signal that you’re not here to try to learn anything but throw FUDGE around. China has been ramping up their fuel imports big time in the past year. High price, low price, they kept buying. It’s as if they knew something was going to happen. Hmmm… ok time to buy enough jerry cans and stabil (both for petrol and diesel) and woila, I seem to have enough fuel for my vehicles for the next year. Prices have already doubled for diesel in my neck of the woods…. so while people are yakking about the ‘high’ interest rates that they can get for their fixed deposits now, I’ve basically made more than 100% on actual fuel. That is if I sell, but likely to be burning up in my driving… but you get my point. Once the war restarted (I think of it as long pause from June ‘25), my wife actually harangued me after one of my supermarket trips… “why did you buy pasta, we still have pasta”. Why? Coz by the end of the year, the lack of fertilizers means that we’ll have famine in some places, and super high food prices in others. I get the same information as you from the internet, but you make your own calls.. I make mine. I’m pretty happy and comfortable with mine. Been doing that for 30 years now with a good track record. But I’m honestly still very humble and learning stuff everyday, you need that attitude, otherwise you get complacent and sloppy.
I don’t expect to change your mind .. again, just based on a gut feeling from your reply. Hence my long-winded explanation is to help those who are searching for useful datapoints or analysis… hopefully I provided a bit of value-added to them. Free. No charge, as I learn from others all the time. What you do with that info is up to you.
It's very important for all of us to realize that we are nobodies. All the "information" we have is filtered multiple times through editors who decide what gets posted on the internet. The entire media space is a "for profit" enterprise. The content is secondary to the need to earn a living - generate revenues.
I dont think that means there is nothing we can know. It just means you have to try to harvest from a broad range of sources, be skeptical and read between the lines.
As for the Ford, it's been at sea for 11 months and I think this was it's first real deployment after completion of sea trials for the first carrier of it's class. A normal deployment is 6 months and much of its tour has included significant flight ops. Sending that carrier home is long over due. I hate to think about what the reenlistment rates for the crew and airwing are going to be.
Plan A for getting Iran to do what we want failed. Blockade is at best plan B. A ground invasion is not in the cards. So it becomes a test of inflicting and absorbing economic pain. Perhaps there will be more bombing. If so it will be aimed at the rail and road network - focusing on bridges since otherwise road and rails are easy to fix.
Irans strategy rests on inducing a serious global economic recession leading to a significant financial crisis and upset in the Bond market.
In the meantime, lets not imagine that people in Iran are not suffering. Irans ability to endure will rest more on it's ability to organize it's basic economy to ensure equitable and efficient rationing and mobilizing labor for repair and reconstruction. This means low level civil administration and organization and a minimum of corruption. This sort of effort does not seem to have been something Iran was good at before the war. Can a leopard change it's spots.
For the US it means containing the economic costs at home and ensuring that a stronger USD does not intersect with weakening Asian economies to create a fiscal and Bond crisis. The SWAP lines are part of that effort.
For the US, the real pain and damage to the Bond market may yet be a few months out. For Iran the pain has already begun.
Danf,
US has the white figures, and chooses the strategy, Iran responds.
War is ongoing, and as you say:
Plan A for getting Iran to do what we want failed. A ground invasion is not in the cards. A blockade is at best plan B.
So it becomes a test of inflicting and absorbing economic pain.
Perhaps there will be more bombing. If so it will be aimed at the rail and road network - focusing on bridges since otherwise road and rails are easy to fix.
The blockade is an off ramp. It is the beginning of exiting the war.
It is a porous blockade, as tight or as porous, like a half full glass, as needed to let enough oil out to allow Asian economies survival. A large part part of it is Iranian oil.
Trump and his people are not stupid, they understand that crushing the world economy will not make them win the elections, any elections, neither the midterm, nor the 2028.
Netanyahu/Zionist lobby is in a squeeze here,
If Ahmad Vahidi, Mojtaba Hamenei survive the war, it would mean they are out of reach of combined Israeli and US (Mossad, CIA, NSA...) intelligence and military power.
It means the team needed to assemble the nuclear bomb can be also be kept out of US /Israeli reach.
So, the real plan is to pretend blockade, pretend negotiations, but relentlessly seek Ahmad Vahidi and Mojtaba Hamenei, and the top secret nuclear assembly team in order to kill them. And this throws a somewhat different light on Isfahan rescue operation,
Isn't it easier to do a search and kill operation, than to search, find and extract hundreds of heavy leaded uranium containers .
Unless you are paddling around in a dingy in the Straits of Hormuz you really need to rely on the Internet for the marine traffic stats. It's called digitisation BTW. Saves a lot of hours and seas sick tablets. And even then you will need to acquire some very expensive steel piercing surveillance equipment. I suggest an Internet subscription to Kpler or AI may help you, though that too is using the Internet.
Add this little gem from ZH article today discussing the JUSA's new super duper hypersonic missile system...
"...justifies the move by saying Iran has moved its launchers out of range of the Precision Strike Missile, a weapon that can hit targets at more than 300 miles."
OH! But why do we need "standoff" Precision Strike Missiles??? I thought we commanded the skies over the entire (huge) country of Iran? No???
Everything you hear from Trump and Hegseth's pie holes are fucking lies... Chip
Those who listen to Taco are just as alienated as he is.
You must be referring to Dark Eagle. LOL
Besides the 'fact' (excuse me, himmelhund - yes, I got this off the internet), that it is still in the development stage, the missile itself costs at least $15 million and one Dark Eagle battery costs around $2.7 billion. The US needs to stick to producing graphics where its true expertise lies.
Yes Sir. And I think I read there are 8 missiles total, albeit not tested... Chip
untested missiles. I'l wager Iran is shaking in their boots.
This comment section is emblematic of public discussion these days.
There's the lunatic who sees escalation and nuclear war as the solution to everything.
There's the one who mostly spits drivel and has no points to make.
There's the obligatory Jew hater who despises any other topic.
Occasionally, there's someone with an interesting point, who more often than not gets ignored.
While I appreciate the host's efforts and the chance to ruminate over the occasional useful idea, the public forum is hopelessly contaminated. Even the entertainment value is gone. Little things hitting each other is no longer attractive.
The real takeaway is that the world's destiny is becoming ever more clear, more unavoidable.
"Occasionally, there's someone with an interesting point, who more often than not gets ignored."
Or gets deleted, by the author. (Not very happy about that fact at all.)
So true, and why on earth would anyone hate jews. Beats me
Simplicius is using the current lull in the Ukraine War to gain credibility as an American politics commentator.
I say if you wanna be wise
don't stray too much outside of your expertise
wow - I think Simplicius is awesome. The best. You must be disappointed Trump didn't kill all the Iranians.
I am a far greater fan of Simplicius than you'll ever be
I didn’t read it as a criticism but as a fair warning, it is difficult to be an expert in the politics of a nation on the other side of the earth, especially a nation as screwed up as the USA. Don’t risk hard earned credibility unnecessarily.
I don't view Simplicius as an expert in anything, but instead a highly intelligent, person capable of excellent and reasoned commentary. He has every right to comment on anything he wishes, just as we all do. I understand why some here might not like this particular analysis, but why fall into that same mental trap he spoke about today - you can win and win and win, but if you fail to please once, you are a loser and have stepped out of your area of "expertise".
It's a weird phenomenon here that many trolls whine about the perceived lack of analysis, or bias one way or another, and yet they stay to whine again another day.
Normal people move on to something more to their liking, but these losers, such as Frantic Masturbation, just sling barbs and cry.
and what are you doing?
Complaining about the people who criticize Simpicius' shoddy tactics
And yet your whole life is scrolling through comments and bitching. Take your own advice and read your piece and move on.
Tsk, grrarbage, I follow and comment on Simplicius' substack since before you were born
My only criticism is that he is falling into the advocacy trap, rather than analysis. We all have our biases and pretending otherwise is a lie, and any post will have some balance of advocacy vs analysis. I preferred when it was heavy on analysis and light on advocacy. Lately its not.
In today's world with the likes of Trump and Bibi running about, I suggest it is extremely difficult to maintain unbiased analysis.
he doesn't pretend any more
Ditto
you just said nothing in an entire paragraph, except that you are a fanboy.
I USED to be a fan of Simplicius myself, but he has lost my respect when he cast all objectivity to the winds.
I cannot respect anybody whose prejudices are so obvious
No, I was making a point, not just about Simplicius but any commentor. And what is your problem? I mentioned Simp is intelligent and and reasoned. He's not? I mentioned it's wrong to have too high expectations of someone - sometimes they don'y meet everyone's standards. Is that wrong? Biased? Fanboyish? I have criticised him on many occasions, but do I whine about him falling from his pedestal? I honestly don't understand people like you - ready to pounce on someone because they have not lived up to your standards - if you believe that, the door is located on your browser's tab and marked with an 'x'.
Well you never deserved any respect, and do not utter but demented babble.
I've read down to here and you have said a lot, but so far haven't even engaged with a single point Simplicius makes in his post. Ofc his delivery is biased (it's a very emotive subject) but his points are all valid IMHO. Which of his points would you contest?
It's more about how tiresome and drawn out Trumpology devoted content has grown to be, all around the internet really. Especially compared to Simplicius' day in day out chronicles on the Ukraine War and its developments, which I always find to be high level
An issue driving global economic collapse, tiresome? It is all about Trump because he has made it so. But Trump fans hate this because their Great One is being portrayed as a dimwit clown. it certainly plays well to Iranian morale. Is that your problem with it?
"global economic collapse" is ALL in the eye of the beholder
in case you haven't noticed, EVERYTHING on the internet is about disaster and terror.
learn to read with a grain of salt in mind
Have you tried "Events in Ukraine", more fine grained and detailed about Ukraine.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/
Or Bandera Lobby.
https://banderalobby.substack.com/
But they are not so much SITREPy.
oh fuck
more substacks
some real info and data would be nice for a change
<<<<< it is difficult to be an expert in the politics of a nation on the other side of the earth, especially a nation as screwed up as the USA.<<<<
Uhh....it doesn't take a lot of expertise to look at results of the recent actions in the Gulf and Strait.
The status of the war effort and the politics of the war effort are entirely different things. Most Americans believe that the war is going swimmingly, that all Iranian ships have been sunk, that Iran has no more missiles, that there have been only 13 US casualties to date, and that Iran is begging for an end to the fighting. Because the fat orange retard tells them this, and the Fox News Anchor and former Captain in the National Guard who is now Secretary of WAR! reassures them that we have the most lethal army ever in the history of the world.
Scott,
the frontline does not lie.
Proof of "superior fan-worship" ?Perhaps facial tattoos, minor amputations, recorded flagellation? We lessers await your proof...
true dat.
Simp
WTF are you talking about? Best to move on. lol
Why not ask Simpli to take both of you in his diaper instead of pulling your hair?
yeah, you like what Simplicius is saying... you want to have 10 thousand of his babies
that does not make Simplicius correct, or objective. It simply means he shares your opinions and prejudices.
It's not a lull, the strategic situation is shifting.
The Kremlin bet it all on making a deal, so there were no strategic moves made to prepare for a military solution to the problem.
But of course there can be no other solution but a military one, i.e. the Kremlin does not intend to solve the problem, but to surrender.
Thus the lack of mobilization and the drastically lowered intensity of deep strikes in the Ukrainian rear. Not that there is much left to hit that isn't placed off limits by political dictate from the Kremlin, everything that matters inside Ukraine has a veto on strikes on it, and everything else that matters is outside Ukraine.
Meanwhile the other side is busy mobilizing for a military solution.
This translates into Russian advances slowing and Ukraine making incresingly many successful counter attacks.
A situation very reminiscent of the one from mid-2022.
What would you have done differently if you were in Vladimir Vladimirovic's shoes, woman?
The fact that we have potentially at hand a direct conflict between two nuclear superpowers, it is wise to avoid that conflict as long as possible. The risk of a nuclear exchange between these two far exceeds the risk to the Russian state of a few attacks on Russian infrastructure that in the whole of things do not cause material damage to the state. I understand that it tests one's patience with such a strategy but this is a line drawn that must be observed or we put the entire world at risk.
Whilst I personally would love to see Russia take out CIA headquarters at Langley, the public outcry in America at such an attack might well force its government to turn to nukes immediately, knowing that they would really have no other alternative against a strong military like Russia's. Is that really true? I don't know. Neither do you. And neither does the rest of the world.
Would you truly then take that risk if you were Putin? Or would you exercise a slow death-by-a-thousand-cuts on an over-extended empire that is already teetering on the brink of economic and military collapse? Russia is really not materially affected by a few potshots at its huge fossil fuel industry. It is more concerned with the monetary policies of its central bank, which is keeping interest rates too high, thus materially suppressing economic expansion. If anyone is to be given credit for weakening Russia, it has to be shady, powerful people operating out of Basel, Switzerland.
Indeed. The Ukraine game is much, much bigger than the Ukraine kinetic SMO.
>a few attacks on Russian infrastructure that in the whole of things do not cause material damage to the state
So we are to take it that rivers of burning oil running down the streets of Tuapse and setting residential buildings on fire, toxic fumes engulfing multiple cities, and dozens of civilians killed and maimed daily, not to mention the six-digit KIAs at the front line does not constitute "material damage" in your view?
OK, so the US will keep on doing what it's doing, unless and until stopped.
Quite likely *from* Kazakhstan, not over.
Today a drone crashed in Kazakhstan 20 km south of Orsk.
Which could have entered in principle from Saratov into Kazakhstan, then flown 700 km to Orsk to avoid Russian AD along the way. But I doubt that.
For three reasons:
1) These are not some new drones, it's the same An-196 as always. If they had the range to get beyond the Urals, they would have long ago.
2) Notice how there have never been strikes on Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk. It's not that there is nothing to strike there, quite the opposite. Murmansk, on the other hand, which is even further, was attacked multiple times back in 2024. Then that stopped. Because the drones were coming from Finland, Finland was warned, then they halted the attacks. But if they always had the range to attack Chelyabinsk, they would have been spamming Olenya with drones from Ukraine non-stop, given that Olenya was the main base used to launch Tu-95 bombers for most of 2024 and 2025. Also, there were never any drone attack alerts over Karelia. So the drones that did get to Murmansk were 100% from Finland, and nothing flew further than the northern edges of Vologda
3) This night there was a curious pattern. The drone alerts followed the expected sequence -- Volgograd, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Samara, Tatarstan, Orenburg, then Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen. But then there was a pause of 2-3 hours and suddenly the alarms rang again for Orenburg, and then, for the first time ever, Kurgan.
So what appears to have happened, and likely on Saturday too, is that they tried to time the launch of the drones from Kazakhstan with the arrival of the ones from Ukraine west of the Urals, so that it appeared as if it was the same drones.
Then the timing was messed up for the second launch towards Kurgan.
Needless to say, these are catastrophic developments -- the main Russian ICBM bases are along the Kazakh border. Because that was the deepest most untouchable rear in Soviet times. But now it no longer is. The implications are obvious.
And yet the Kremlin is sitting on its hands...
You know us men can form our own opinion just by reviewing the facts themselves, without having to listen to what Christoforou or Berletic came out with by a similar analytic process to our own?
An odd reply from some one who started out the discussion challenging Simplicius for commenting in field where he lacks authority.
Have you read https://substack.com/@chinarbitrageur/p-193907805 ? Last part of 5 part series on Iran.
Hopium
Some good concepts - Don't judge WW3 by WW2 metrics. In WW2, defeat a country's army, the country surrenders. Post WW2 - the country keeps fighting.
Cuba is increasingly moving from a hopeless situation toward a desperate endgame and collapse. The communist party is still intact there but barely functional. What if they decide to play a Castro 2.0 Reloaded and become a Russian proxy overnight? Naturally, logistics would be the critical issue just like it was during Castro 1.0: How could Russia move there all the necessary hardware? Maybe they will opt to park two titanium framed nuclear subs around Cuba to ensure peace and love for all?
You most likely are right. However, they are a bunch of very desperate commies there at the end of the rope. I would hate to think what will happen to the present leadership in case of a major populist uprising there. That would be like 1956 Budapest, ‘The Stalingrad of Communism’.
Russia is in fact militantly anti-revolutionary.
The only people Putin has cracked down on are hardcore patriots and communists.
Liberals in Russia and Nazis in Ukraine he has not touched at all.
You might like to read https://substack.com/@chinarbitrageur/p-193907805 (5th in 5 articles). It points out that the negotiations between the US and Iran are irrelevant, because neither side can admit what is developing. There are similarities with the Ukraine situation, that this is not a war that can be solved by negotiations, only the slow acceptance of what is happening. The idea that the war has gone on too long, that escalation to nuclear weapons will force Europe to the negotiating table is simplistic. This war will take 20 years for NATO to admit it is incapable of achieving it's aims in Ukraine/Russia and to accept Eastern Ukraine is Russian.
There is no deal Iran can make that will satisfy Israel.
nah, it's a lull, mainly due to efficient drone saturation of the battlefield by the AFU defenders. Certainly situation is different from the onset of the Kharkhov counteroffensive of 2022, seen that Russia has enough manpower to plug all possible frontline gaps now, contrary to how it was 3.5 years ago
>it's a lull, mainly due to efficient drone saturation of the battlefield by the AFU defenders.
Which is going to be prevented how? Under current rules of engagement, that is the new strategic reality.
>Russia has enough manpower to plug all possible frontline gaps now
But Russia is supposed to be winning the war, not to play defense, isn't it?
they'll come up with something eventually
Mosaic tactics where they slowly infiltrate the gray zone in the rare occasions they are not watched.
If I had to wager how are we going to break the tactical/technological deadlock imposed by drones, I'd bet on tunnelling.
>they'll come up with something eventually
What will that be, on what time scale and how is to going to stop the strikes deep inside Russia?
Kurgan, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk have joined the ever expanding geography this week.
Strelkov used to mockingly talk about the red lines moving all the way to Vladivostok, but that is literally what we are watching happening right now.
I already gave a pair of ideas on what that will be.
A similar technological deadlock in favour of the defender, the machine gun in trenches, was overcome by stormtroopers tactics and bracketing fire and echelon creeping artillery barrages. Same thing eventually will happen here
It’s so infuriating to listen to Trump smugly asserting that every single Iranian ship has been sunk, every one of their aircraft has been destroyed, and “83%” of their ballistic missiles are gone.
Of course, Trump is not told the truth in these matters, as it only agitates him. So he likely believes what he is saying.
There is an old saying that history repeats itself, first as tragedy and then again as farce. We are well into the farcical stage.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!!!
anybody who listens to what Trump says to the media is a nitwit and deserves to be misled
And you forgot Africa too ! There is a new allout offensivr including more than 10k terrorist in Mali. Sadly, I mean sadly for you, this was twarted thanks to... the Russian corps in Mali. And why is Iran still a thing? Russian help. When you hypocritically and methodically blame it all on Russia, you intentionaly forget Russia is sending help ships to Cuba and is fighting WW III practically alone. Where is China? You could say a word about Xi... But your target is Putin. However, you are right about something. Russia has lost its nuclear deterrence capability and its difficult to see how the country can bring back some kind of respect for its Sarmats. Yesterday King Charles III, your sovereign, openly called in the US congress for a joint war against Russia. But this joint war is already happening. He meant US boots on the ground. Putins transformation of Russia is at its final stage. Whats coming is a much more "assertive" Russia, as the Rands papers put it. The biggest mistake Russia could make is to fight its minion neighbours while ignore their handlers. It would be like fighting Findland, Rumania, Hungary and Italy but forgetting about Berlin in WW II.
"RUSSIA HAS LOST ITS NUCLEAR DETERRENCE CAPABILITY"
you actually wrote that
dont agree?
of course Simplicius should also cover the tactical side of these Sahel conflicts, giving us the dressdown of toyota technicals and land rovers tactics during sandstorms and the like.
Much more interesting than Trumpology indeed
Ah yes.. mid 2022... a resounding success for the Ukraine, just prior to their amazing incursion into russian territory....
You are really Budanov, right?
Given that the territory given up in 2022 because of Putin's stupidity/treason/incompetence has still not been recovered in 2026, yeah, a resounding success it was indeed
the territory given up in 2022 was lightly occupied and there was no way russia could hold onto it.
nice try, repeating Ukraine's propaganda about it's mighty recovery of that territory... while it has meanwhile lost about 90% of the Donbass for good
Why was it "lightly occupied"?
Could it be because Putin ignored six months of everyone screaming about the need for immediate mobilization?
he is right the whole Kupiansk-Oskil river front mess of 3 years and counting stems from that failure
Both were resounding successes, because they shifted the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence.
It wasn't narrative, it was the reality.
Russia is likely well aware that this proxy war will not be the last that Europe and the USA will launch, and means to conserve resources as much as possible.
Maybe a retreat into the interior to draw the invaders in, and lengthen their supply lines before counterattacking could be a war winning strategy? I wonder if there is a precedent for that approach?
You make an accusation without providing any reason. What's your problem?
I have made no accusation, don't jump to conclusions
You just accused Simp of being incompetent to comment on American politics. I would call that an accusation. Wouldn't you?
Look, now I see you are the one who managed to comment first under this post.
You achieved that by typing a mere question mark, while I came second with a fully fledged, thought out and proper comment.
I resent you for this, I don't want to deal with you.
I have no problem with that. You're pissed off because you made an unsubstantiated accusation and don't want to talk about it. I get it.
I made no accusation to Simplicius.
The only accusation I can throw around here, is that you achieved first posting by essentially fraudulent means
He’s doing ok ..but missing that USA v Iran is not going well , but USA v rest of the world quite well . People have no idea how much oil and gas we have , it dwarfs the Middle East . E.g. XOM has 20% of worlds Helium .
Plus if things get ugly ..I would not want to be Mexico or Canada or Brazil . Add those in and USA controls the world’s fossil fuels .
Russia should help China with fossil fuels . Russia is a peer competitor to USA but not with the entire Western hemisphere
Russia should help Brazil and Mexico obtain nuclear weapons, which would dramatically change the geopolitical landscape in the western hemisphere. The West keeps threatening to help Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan get nuclear weapons if Iran gets nuclear weapons. I understand that Russia does not benefit from nuclear proliferation, but the way to deter Poland or South Korea from getting nuclear weapons is to threaten to give Brazil and Mexico nuclear weapons once these western satrapies obtain them.
"Russia should help Brazil and Mexico obtain nuclear weapons"
loony tunes
why should anyone not have nuclear weapons when that illegal genocidal jew state has them?
Bull shit. The only oil we have by and large is heavy crude from fracking. That's expensive to extract and refine. In other words, high prices at the pump without subsidies, from an already broke and bankrupt government. The USSA MIC is already floundering because their weapons don't work as well as the competitions and are way over priced. Karma is a bitch, and it's coming.
USA MIC doesn’t build weapons to fight with, they build weapons to get rich from.
I am sad that he is not covering the one thing I want to know about, which is Ukraine. All I hear about is the current Russian mass casualties and eventual defeat
Worse than that, the occasional Ukraine themed entry in this blog is being hidden behind a paywall
I paid still am sad
There isn't much happening in Ukraine now the front has spread wider. At the moment Iran is a far bigger strategic issue for Russia.
Help me understand.
There is no actual lull in the Ukraine war, just a Ukraine led propaganda explosion as it seeks to get the 90 billion sewn up (and some). It hasn't yet. I would bet it won't as Russia lands a sucker punch at the most inconvenient moment.
As for Iran, people attack an adversary for lack of authority to comment, when they have no other answer to the critique. WHADDA YOU KNOW!!!! Your Hegseth moment!
So we'll take this post of yours as a 'yes' to it all.
I dont care about ASS-ISTAN IRAN. I want to know about Russia
Hello Frantic. You can post what you want but, that is a pretty uniformed remark. Simplicius is right on the money and well within the realm of not only what a large variety of opinion in the occident are grudgingly reporting ............ but from people in energy, economic and commentariat circles of the southwest asia region acknowledge. Your comment is laughable to me.
However, I wish you well.
"you are uninformed and laughable... but I wish you well."
bullshit
I don't wish you well if you defend the jew.
One can disagree but, you don´t need to wish harm or negativity on others if you do. I hope you have a good day. :)
Hey, “you are uninformed and laughable but I wish you well” is a good way to step down from an ugly online conversation. Much more civilized than the “hail of expletives and throwing of middle fingers” option.
There's some sock puppetry doing the rounds today, John.
as far as I'm concerned Simplicius has completely destroyed his credibility since he is obviously incapable of objectivity, or even interested in being objective
Yes,
he is being rude to Mr Trump.
That's too charitable. He's trying to build his base by cherry-picking and spinning news reports to pander to Anti-Trump fanatics. I'm considering cancelling my subscription.
here comes the shabos goy jew sycophant "scott lively"
here is what lively follows: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3qB7UpIijhE
don't let the door hit you when you leave...
You're a liar and walking offense to decency. I do not now nor have I ever endorsed the idea of female pastors, and the clip you linked to is the first video I've ever seen of this woman.
I thought you were leaving.
You believe the same Jew supremacy evangelical nonsense.
Give Simplicius another chance! Go back in the archive and read again some of his old pieces
Simplicius is using the current lull in the Ukraine War to gain credibility as an American political commentator.
There is no lull, no Sundays or holidays in war. Simplicius is following the trend, has increased his number of articles, and has lost, even regarding the Ukrainian conflict, his analytical skills, becoming a public narrator of statements from various parties, stories—including fanciful and fantastical ones—from the media and the press. I can understand him; one day for analysis is short. I also understand that he has chosen the volume of articles over quality, but I won't say anything about that, and that's the only criticism I can level at him.
A balanced opinion
Whoa! my little limerick triggered a pandemonium of replies! Testifies to the effectiveness of verse over prose: take that, Samuel Richardson!
Now there were too many replies to read them all, but I will restate the following: the "war" on Iran is a non-event, and what Trump says he will do and won't do is of no practical interest! Least of all to a man of Simplicius' talent and knowledge of the Ukraine War, which is the subject upon which his pen should meet the paper, so to speak.
Simplicius isn’t valuable because of the specific topic he covers. Plenty of people focus on Ukraine and still produce noise. What sets him apart is how he thinks, not just what he thinks. He breaks down incentives, constraints, and operational realities instead of parroting narratives.
If that analytical framework holds, it transfers. War analysis and geopolitics aren’t separate domains; they run on the same machinery of power, incentives, logistics, and information control. Judging him by topic boundaries misses the point.
If you think he’s wrong on Iran, then challenge his analysis. ‘Stay in your lane’ isn’t an argument, it’s gatekeeping.
I don't give two hoots about this Iranian "conflict" and I get submerged by geopolitical analyses on it as if it's the eventful happening that is not, each time I access the Internet.
I see Simplicius squandering his time and energies on it report after report and I say, I implore "no more please!"
His round-up of various sources, and analysis is the best of any other available.
Not sure why you'd warn him off such a valuable effort.
Don't read it if you don't like it.
He truly is unmatched in that department
1) "Trump" isn't deciding anything; he's running a playbook given to him. Project 2025 is such a blueprint. There's an agenda and the US government, no matter who is "elected", will advance it.
2) The US isn't "settling" for some kind of copium "forever blockade". A blockade of Iran is exactly what the US wants, for it's a distant blockade on China. The US hasn't even been quiet about tying this war and its effects to China. Boomer media slop has been calling China "Iran's Sugar Daddy". These freaks tie all the usual suspects together into their daily Two Minutes Hate.
Simplicius overanalyzes. The US is HQ of a consortium, taking over from the British before them. Corporate goons will raze the world before they allow other countries to rise and supplant their empire.
US+allied foreign policy is welded together to sabotage all rivals, take over critical logistical chokepoints, and prevent the loss of imperial dominance.
Once you understand this, you will understand just about every ridiculous chapter, and see the charades and smoke & mirrors for what they are. Our politicians are pathological liars, swindlers, and cheap soldiers, point men, and coat holders for the corporate mafia and banking syndicate. Note the Treasury Secretary talking like a damn US General with warships under his command? He licks his vampiric fangs like Netanyahu about destroying Iran.
The rhetoric is embarrassing to be honest, these articles have destroyed Simps cred and the TDS, his own mind.
Great interview on YouTube between Brian Berletic & Glenn Diesen laying out the larger chessboard in play. Well worth a watch:
https://youtu.be/Ef0sHx33C-g?si=QltouNwRf9zDR9cT
Yes, the game is obvious -- Europe is the next kamikaze lined up to be thrown into the fire.
It just has to be made impossible to eliminate quickly first. Ukraine fulfilled that condition by default -- it is a part of Russia, the only thing that could have eliminated it as a proxy was the elimination of its elites, but Russian elites don't touch other elites because then there is risk of retaliatory strikes and we can't risk Russian oligarchs' skins even a tiny bit. But Europe is not part of Russia. So the way to make it impossible to eliminate is to give it nuclear weapons. Thus all the chatter about that recently.
And the Kremlin is sleeping through it just as it slept through the establishment of Ukraine as a kamikaze proxy.
The Kremlin most certainly wasn't sleeping through anything, they spent the last decade bringing their mothballed weapons factories on-line, and developing and testing new weapons like the Oreshnik, none of which happened overnight as a result of a big shock.
The Russians just never expected the Ukraine to be so suicidal, and Western backing for a lost cause to be so fervent.
The Kremlin's miscalculation appears to have been the level of Wall street and the US Oligarchs greed, and willingness to sacrifice every last gullible and suicidal Ukrainian.
Developing weapons you do not intend to use is meaningless
Meanwhile the Ukraine problem could have been solved with almost zero bloodshed and now fancy weapons used back in 2014, but Putin made a deal to buy the oligarchs afew more years of comfort instead
You seem absolutely Clueless as the character of Putin and his reasoning.
In 2014 Russia was not ready to go to war, and had not fully sanction proffed their economy and wasn't prepared to build mass weaponry.
Putin Knew the day would come when his country would need the weapons, and he was fully ready for that day on the 24th Feb 2022, except in terms of manpower, he believed that a show of sudden force against Ukraine would change their minds, and it almost did, as they were ready to sign a Peace Treaty in April 2022, until Borris Johnson told the Ukrainians not to, this leading the gullible Ukies up the war path.
>In 2014 Russia was not ready to go to war,
Didn't need to be, there wasn't going to be a war.
>and had not fully sanction proffed their economy and wasn't prepared to build mass weaponry.
Which was whose fault? Who had been in power for only 15 years already? And Ukraine was not suddenly flipped in 2013-14, there had already been the Orange revolution in 2004-05. So either Putin sat on his hands and watched, or he didn't even notice. Either offense is completely disqualifying him as a leader. And yet here he still is, another 12 years later.
You sure had done it better against all NATO.
Putin warned the US and NATO repeatedly, starting at the turn of the millenium, directly to their faces... that expanding into Ukraine was going to get them in trouble
I would say that europe is in more trouble than russia today.
You can blow up russia's industry here and there.. russia will not run out of energy
If it has to keep its oil and gas for itself, its main source of income will be affected, but it will STILL have enough energy
Europe will have to buy its energy from the US and other faraway sources at high prices
Waste of time debating the troll.
Yes, it is impossible to reason someone out of a position which is not reasonable in the first place. These comment forums always devolve into debates about his little fantasy land where extreme violence is the solution to everything, including my blocked toilet. It gets a little tedious rather fast.
You're not debating Shithead, you're Bullshitting, which means that you're obviously an American Halfwit.
Weapons you intend not to use happens regularly. Sometimes technology surpasses them before use, and they are discarded. Sometimes they are developed specifically to keep the barbarians out, like nukes, and sometimes they’re built to be “demonstrated” in an attempt to prevent further issues like Russian hypersonics.
The barbarians are bombing Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk right as we speak, so just keeping the stuff for demonstration purposes hasn't done anything to deter anyone.
Ignorant Fuck, the US and Ukraine provoked and started this war despite you and your government's Fucking Bullshit disinformation rhetoric!!!
Money laundering is not a lost cause, especially when you're working with the greatest money launderer of all time.
PS! The Kremlin also spent the last decade sanction proofing their economy, in preparation for Western and Ukrainian Idiocy.
And yet it didn't sanction proof it.
The first mandatory step for any such thing would be to round up all the oligarchs and the several hundred thousands liberal traitors supporting them, shoot them in some forests and bury them in unmarked mass graves.
Did you see anything of the sort happening?
unmarked mass graves... What kind of psychopath are you?
He makes a good point: we are in the very old class battle between the rich and the poor. The rich being maybe a couple of millions today, the poor the rest. They have no saying in their future, none, zero. Thus getting rid of the elite, the root cause of all our problems, may change something before humanity falls of the cliff
Nothing about the SMO makes any sense except through an old school Marxist analysis.
Which is why the alt-media completely fails in covering the SMO -- nearly all of the alt-media is anti-communist, so the fact that Russia is a caste society in which a small elite makes the decisions and the rest of the population has to suffer what it must is something the alt-media is completely blind to.
the "rich" being a few millions of people????
I guess that all depends on your definition of "rich," doesn't it?
I personally am not rich.. I have a nice place to live (rented) very comfortable - in a boring european state (Not country) capital city.
I have a car and a fat motorcycle. I no longer skydive but I scuba dive and work out regularly. I have access to saunas, swimming pools, etc.
I work a part-time job for some tax-free income but that finances my occasional vacations and will prepare me for my return to the continental US in the near future when the shit hits the fan here in europe.
My point is - by YOUR standards or mine, I am not "rich," I simply have enough and a bit extra.. I live within my means and am not extravagant or wasteful, and I try to be a responsible citizen and respect my neighbors.
I am totally average middle class here, and I am INCREDIBLY RICH by comparison to most of the people in asia, africa, south america, etc.
so it's all in your definition of "RICH," ain't it.
you should maybe be more careful with your use of the term.
There are hundreds of millions of "rich" people in the west, compared to the global north and south. And those people DO have something to say, if they weren't too lazy to get involved and would get off their asses to vote once in a while
What do people who are responsible for the deaths of millions (and in Russia's case we are talking 10-15 million people) deserve according to you?
It was fully conscious too, not an unfortunate mistake. There are famous quotes from a number of prominent figures on the subject.
Russia is now responsible for the deaths of 10-15 million people?
Seriously?
please elaborate
a stupid psycopath...is there any other kind?
It didn't???
What utter Fucking Bullshit!!!
Western sanctions, all 21 packages have had little to No effect on Russia.
In fact you Shit Head, they've had a more negative effect on the EU and US!!!
Europe was kamikazed in 2022. :P
europe just plain sucks
it fell for the "superstate" bullshit, all the members have surrendered their sovereignty to Ursula von Auschwitz and today they stand blankly there and stare as they are being walled into their electronic prison
what a bunch of sheep
Like their over lords across the Atlantic told them to do.
All European leaders are US-approved and or educated directly there.
Without that you won't rise to power in western Europe.
think what you want
america does not control europe - it can't
America? You mean the USA, an criminal, genocidal, corrupt, child fu*king Epstein-class ruled entity. The USA are not America!
America is a great, beautiful continent with many great nature and wonderful people - except the USA.
then they need to expel every jew.
Euro leaders are all YGL graduates. Not directly controlled by the US, but by the same master vampires.
See also https://escapekey.substack.com/p/epstein , and other articles in that series, for who and how is coordinating the political class.
I see the relationship as being like a Master and a dog. The dog goes nuts when the postman comes, the dog is spoiling for a fight, but it wants Master to drive away the postman. not to fight the postman itself.
"Kremlin is sleeping through it"
of course... the Kremlin is full of sycophantic yes-men and you are the sole strategic genius brilliant enough to figure all this out
my hat is off to your immense powers of deduction
Ahaha, no. Russia doesn't touch Ukraine's political elites just because it doesn't make sense.
Firstly, the puppeteers are not in Ukraine. They must be targeted in Europe and the United States.
Secondly, the elites will simply be replaced by new ones, with a tougher stance and with less desire to negotiate. (you have the example of Iran in front of your eyes)
Thirdly, it will simply be the glorification of Zelensky and the strengthening of unity around the flag. Why does Russia need a more united Ukraine against it?
>the puppeteers are not in Ukraine. They must be targeted in Europe and the United States.
OK, target them
every jew is an enemy agent.
Yes
That is a good video dk. Forcing EU/NATO into a conflict with Russia was the original Trump plan. There is little surprise there. The US will sell arms, oil and gas at inflated prices, that was also anticipated after the destruction of Nord Stream (2022). Around 70% of EU/NATO arms come from the USA. I could actually write a detailed, week by week choreography of coming events with all the gory details but I understand I am supposed to ‘upgrade to paid here’ to secure my future. Trump would probably tell me to go the art of the deal way and switch my black Chevy 1952 truck with the .50 caliber on the roof for a pink convertible Cadillac to be more acceptable. I says ‘NO! Trumpy, Im nobody’s honey! Sorry. Then – says Trumpy – comes the merciless GangStalking bot assigned to do one thing only: Degrade you for your disobedience. Big deal I says, I can always open a page to compete and take this whole game to a different level.
"Forcing EU/NATO into a conflict with Russia was the original Trump plan"
God I never realized what an idiot you are.
The CIA and MI6 have been working in Ukraine since the cold war, you fuckhead
the plan to build up Ukraine and point it at Russia was hatched 60 fucking years ago.
England has had the strategic goal of breaking up russia for a couple hundred years.
Trump was a fucking baby in diapers when the Ukraine gambit was first conceived and it took NATO 20 fucking years of expansion to reach russia's borders while trump was building fucking hotels and casinos
You are much stupider than I ever fucking thought
Jeez
Dog boy is off his meds today.
zion don has no plan other than to serve his jew masters...
Yes it's one of the best with Diesen.
Brian Berletic is a paid jew shill and a race mixing sex tourist.
Berletic is a paid Jew shill and a race mixing sex tourist.
Trump is so beaten that nothing has ever flown, or looks likely to flow into Missouri, Kansas, and the likes. Or even just around the US coasts.
Meanwhile the US has caused an ecological disaster with its strikes now in Perm, 1500km deep inside Russia, not only in Tuapse, and it struck even deeper the last week -- Tobolsk, Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, etc.
And what did the victims' government do in response? Putin had a call with Trump lasting an hour and a half. No destruction of the US bases and logistics in Europe, no strikes on Trump himself, no destruction of the CIA and Pentagon facilities inside the US responsible for the attacks on Russia, nothing. Only the "Spirit of Anchorage".
The Iranians did a little bit better, but in the end no meaningful cost has been imposed on the people that matter by that them either.
So yeah, Trump is totally beaten.
Couldn’t possibly be anywhere near as beaten as Putin though. As you have pointed out once or twice , he is the gold standard in being beaten
Sarcasm?
You obviously aren’t familiar with “GM” and his pathological obsession and hatred of Putin. Its a long running joke here. So yes sarcasm
"GM" sounds like fun. Will watch his future antics with interest.
Tovariska, GM you sound depressed again, in wartime everyone is forced to take some beating.
How about Israel? They are in ruins no amount of air defense is helping them, they are taking a major beating in Lebanon. The flat footed Israeli soldiers can't handle the Hezbollah bandits, who are fighting back without the whole NATO behind them. How about the American "golden fleet" they got humbled by the Iranians, without NATO helping them. You have to have an iron nerves for to survive the storm, by betting on scaling your capacities to outlast your adversaries. With all your worrying crying you just causing yourself lots of gray hairs needlessly. Just leave this for the big boys !
Well stated Sandor, Hungarians mostly get it right. I am sorry for the recent changes there.
Putin is deeply submissive to Trump. On a psychological scale that is so clear. Is it possible that the so called "Russian elite" has nobody else to put in Kremlin?
It is now clear, the Russian population does not understand the situation they are in. They all want to be part of the west, at least imaginary, at least emotionally.
They do not care for Russia, as Russia was defeated in 1991. when USSR fell. Young Russians just want to travel and consume, unlike the Ukrainians, they do not want to sacrifice themselves.
I understand the point of many people here. They dream about Russia as the only actor that could stop the Evil Empire. But Russia is part of the evil show. In the end, how many countries broke their ties with Israel due to the genocide? I think, only Nicaragua did that.
So, this world is a bucket of shit.
A logical end of Homo Sapiens rule on this planet.
Young Ukrainians want to travel and consume as well, just nobody asks them what they think or like or want.
GM
there is one way to victory for Putin
nationalize oligarchs, establish a sovereign fund, like a Norwegian one, put all profits from oil, gas, etc. into fund that will benefit all Russian citizens
Majority of citizens will accept, military will accept,
It would greatly help establishing a real power of the people government
It might help with Ukraine war
Ukrainians who join will become stakeholders... in something real...
On the money for once, but he absolutely cannot be as beaten as Putin in your little echo chamber(with pics)
you make it seem so much less serious than most commentators that are saying famine famine famine. I hope Trump gets out of there before May.
evidently people haven't figure out that, besides all the bullshit emanating from the white house and Tel Aviv,
EVERYTHING ELSE ON THE INTERNET IS BULLSHIT, as well!
"my favorite websites" - all bullshit
"my favorite internet pundits" - all bullshit
if they offer it to you as "facts" and "information," it's got a high bullshit probability
if they offer it to you as "my opinion," then you can consider taking it at face value - as an OPINION
doesn't make it "correct" or "right," but at least they are being honest
yeah - and in the past two weeks everything offered to me on youtube is AI slop. Its depressing
exactly.
there was a time when you could actually get some info from the internet... at least enough to make you think
Those days are long gone
because of the jew...
3000 containers = less than 1 cargo ship. Considerably less
US blockade, sanctions, possible attack, whatever = no consequences. Everyone just stands around, Trump gets to keep playing in his sandbox
Why do you think he is able to continuously make these absurd proclamations? Because there are no consequences. Yes prices are up. Way up. Inflation will come back. GOP will get hammered in November. DO YOU THINK HE CARES?
Hormuz is gonna be closed throughout 2026 at this rate. Asia, the Gulf, and Europe will be economic wastelands in 2027. The US will be a mega exporter like 1946. Trump keeps winning because the US keeps dealing aces and kings while we keep getting twos and sevens.
There's no skill in it. The iranians should have "touched" something in the US, a port, a base, something, instead of wasting efforts hitting Dubai
The US lacks many things, but passivity is not one. They are the ultimate Just Do Things place, consequences be dawned. But those consequences need to be imposed, they dont just happen. This is where the Stern Statement crowds get it comprehensively wrong.
The US folded almost instantly when china did the RE restrictions. Pushback works but you gotta take some risk. My analysis of russian decision making is "whatever barely satisfies all factions" rather than any single cohesive argument
Yeah right. If promoting trannies in the military and kissing Zionist arse etc is considered doing
Containerized Shahed/Geran drones and submarine launched hypersonics should have been torching billionaire mansions in the US since 2023 the latest. It was the best way to stop the escalation before nothing less than strategic nuclear strikes suffices to reslove it (which is where we are now)
I am confident top strategists played this scenario out in their minds a thousand times there. For some reason they just refuse to cross the Rubicon.
>So far I have disagreed with him about nuclear weapons being the only appropriate action
Note that me and you started having these conversations some time in 2025,. maybe late 2024.
Not in 2022.
So there might be this mistaken impression in many that I have always been a lunatic who wants to nuke the whole world.
Nothing of the sort -- I am pointing out that by some point in early 2024 the latest Putin allowed Russian deterrence to be so completely destroyed that nothing short of nuclear strikes, and strategic, not just tactical ones too, will suffice to restore it and make the West back off.
1) Had Ukraine been taken, largely bloodlessly, back in 2014, there would be no war at all. But it wasn't, because of Russian oligarch interests.
2) Had it been defeated quickly in 2022, there would be no strikes inside Russia. But it wasn't, again because of Russian oligarch interests.
3) Had a cost been imposed on the Ukrainian ruling elite immediately after the first terror strikes into the L/DNR, not even across the official border (but it was an absolute must ones cross-border terror began), a cost measured in key individuals being physically taken out in punishment for each such transgression, they would have realized that being a Western kamikaze proxy is a losing game and the whole scheme would have fallen apart. But that wasn't done, because of Russian oligarch interests. And some orders from Tel Aviv. With the two things being closely connected.
4) Had conventional strikes on the Western oligarchy begun in response to Western weapons starting to hit Russian civilians and infrastructure, the Western oligarchy maybe would have backed off. But that wasn't done either, because, again, Russian oligarch interests.
And the more you erode deterrence, the more drastic measures you have to take to restore it. Eventually we surpassed the point beyond which anything short of strategic nuclear strikes will have a meaningful effect.
You will understand it eventually. Or rather, accept it -- we have had many exchanges in which I have outlined the reasons why and I know you understand it, you just haven't yet fully dealt with the emotional aspect of it.
Tactical nukes -- military targets, some infrastructure, etc.
Strategic nukes -- wiping out cities.
That is the distinction.
You generally need bigger nukes to wipe out cities, but there is plenty of overlap.
The problem is that the suicide pact nature of the NATO alliance makes it so that token symbolic conventional strikes will only generate a much bigger war because they will now trigger the involvement of all of Europe. Tactical nuclear ones on factories likely will have a similar effect. So the first strike on any given counrty should be also the one that ends its whole existence permanently, so that there is nobody left to demand retaliation and so that everyone else gets the message to back off or else in the most unmistakable terms.
Do I like that idea? In general, no, though there are some countries in Europe where even the general population has in fact fully earned such a treatment. Still, it's a monstrous thing to do. But this is cold hard geostrategy and game theory, and that is what the situation dictates.
Elena, this was a subject before. Putin actually pacified and trained the Russian oligarchic class close to two decades ago. Some moved to israhell, others moved to jail and others again moved to the UK buying $100 million apartments there. Those who remained toe the party line: NO Politics, Yes business. It goes back to Putin’s old invitation to a general meeting with the oligarchic class close to two decades ago. When they arrived on the edge of Moscow at an orientation point they were led to an old dacha, Stalin’s old home on the edge of Moscow where he died in 1953 (he was poisoned by Lavrentiy Beria). Every one of them did get the message. I as a specialist in Soviet/Russian history can assure you about that.
I am recognizing the fact that the war is mismanaged to a degree, Regardless; Russian nuclear deterrent is intact, improving and functional. The US/zionist macho dream of walking over Russia is simply not realistic.
Trump’s Golden Dome exposed as false sense of security
https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/trumps-golden-dome-exposed-as-false-sense-of-security/
Because the Russian leadership does not want to fight the West but to be allowed to join it.
I am in no way an "expert" on internal Russian policy or Mr. Putin's personality, but it appears clear to me that he is an intelligent and cultured man (as is Mr. Lavrov) and as such cannot but know that at this stage of the game there is no possibility of Russia ever joining the "West", if by West we mean North America and primarily northwestern Europe. My own guess (and I emphasize "guess") is that from what he and Mr. Lavrov have seen first-hand of the state of the "West" and its leadership at present, they would neither wish to join it nor import its "brand" into Russia.
I have spent enough time in Russia and Ukraine to think otherwise. When I lived in Ukraine (2004-2012), it was the fashion to denigrate the West.
The moment membership in The Club was dangled out, all was forgotten, all was forgiven, pick me pick me pick me!
I'll concede to your greater familiarity with the societies under discussion, but perhaps things have changed in the past 14 years? Hard for me to imagine the Russians would like to join "The Club" as it's presently constituted. but that might be a simple case of projection on my part.
No meaningful cost has been imposed on the people who matter.
1) The Dow is where it was at the beginning of the war, i.e. their stock market portfolios are OK
2) Not that those matter as much as people think, what matters is real ownership of the economy, and what invariably happens during drastic economic crises in the last several decades is upwards redistribution of that control
3) No member of the Western ruling elites has been taken out physically
4) No infrastructure of importance has been taken out in the West. Or even really in Israel -- the IRGC was much more serious about its strikes on Israel during the 12-Day War than in March 2026, something that somehow nobody wants to pay serious attention to.
5) No US ships have been sunk
6) Losses in aircraft are a lot lower than even Desert Storm.
So what is there not to like?
Am in general agreement with everything you're saying. The real iranian "danger zone" is within its borders and maybe within the gulf itself, but thats it. And a global recession was more or less a done deal weeks ago, so DC may be thinking "if we are going to pay the price anyway, may as well go all the way"
It helps to have thugs like Hegseth and Bassent as lieutenants, too. And you know, I say this as a natural opponent of the theocrats... but I digress
USA is being belatedly forced to admit that the losses due to the bombing of us airbases in the gulf states are much higher than previously acknowledged (13 casualties all on the first day is still the official number)
“Dozens” of aircraft are now acknowledged to have been destroyed on the ground, along with substantial losses of reconnaissance assets, and destruction of the bases themselves, forcing military personnel to relocate to local hotels, where they are quite vulnerable to assassination attempts.
Not a meaningful cost to the people who matter
They classified casualties at the start of the war, someone mentioned 900 dead and 5000 injuries how true who knows ….no one does because the usa is 100% pure bullshit led
Zero members of the Western elites killed.
That is what matters
900, 5000, whatever, it's just numbers that don't matter
and so are you
so what????
dozens of aircraft
Big Fucking Deal
iran has had a massive pasting administered
the difference in damages is pretty lopsided
170 school girls is lopsided.
car bombs need to start happening at every jew embassy around the world....
The school was supposed to have been evacuated, that was the official plan. Their blood is on Iranians who didn't clear out the building. Context matters.
10 dollar gasoline, for starters
I am talking about Europe, here
and you have no idea what has been taken out in israel... not even your favorite internet sources know that
essentially, this is an adventure and an experiement in teaching iran a lesson - that the uranians will not be allowed to dictate world economics because of their proximity to the Persian Gulf.
If they want to withhold their own oil from the market, that is their legal right, but they don't have a legal right to interfere with shipping.
How does 10 dollar gasoline hurt Larry Fink in a way that will make him rethink his actions?
it doesn't
do you have a point????
Does he have a point? You’re new here are t you? Stick around, you’ll soon catch up with the fun.
THE JEW IS THE PROBLEM - that is the point.
They have every right o interfere with shipping.
A - there are no part of the IMO treaty (as the USA is not either)
B - Iran has the right to defend itself against a war of aggression (the biggest war crime according to the established Nürnberg right.
C- The straight of Hormuz is Irans national water and economic zone of interest. That gives them every right according to international law to handle their national interests there as they see fit.
Right has nothing to do with it.
The United States and Israel have no right to attack Iran.
They do not care, as they have power on their side.
why does the jew have any right to take land in Lebanon (or anywhere)?
why is the USA not attacking the jew state for this ?
why should any white person suffer in any way for the jew??
You have all the insight of a nutrition breakdown on a Big Mac carton. As if the ingredients are what it’s all about.
When you choose to go to war you must be prepared for all contingencies- not the US - only concern is the Nov election per MSM- then King Chuck comes to visit and is allowed to address Congress about our engaging in WWIII with Russia and gets a standing ovation- we are lost when those who purportedly represent us sell out to another version of Bibi with their endorsement- another non- American suggesting we engage in further war/s for what - billionaire King Chuck could rescue his country with his personal wealth but he wants us to do it. NATO must be preserved so we can go to war with what and why? Pea shooters, slingshot, water pistols - our missiles are in short supply but talk is cheap and dangerous. Deluded old men with dreams of glory - war is different in 2026- no one in Europe has a large enough and capable enough standing military to engage in these fantasies. Where is an adult in this deluded mess?
"The US will be a mega exporter like 1946."
OF WHAT??? That is as delusional as anything out of Trump's pie hole ever... Chip
‘OF WHAT???’
Pizza store and coffee shop licenses.
The 3rd rate shit show that is the US of Asses, continues its journey down the S bend of history much to the amusement of the rest of the world. Sad for the Zionist parasite , it will have to find a new host.
Could be tricky as not a lot of born again cretins in the rest of the world to believe the current expat Polish population of the Disneyland version of “Israel” have some connection to their dumbed down happy clapper version of a religion.
Although Modi and India might be an option based his visit to Nobbyyahoo, the day before the Zionist twosome attacked Iran. He just might be dumb enough, based on that alone.
Don't know if it's been mentioned here before, but the origin if the word "cretin" comes from the French comment with respect to someone of subnormal intelligence "Il et un bon chrétien" or something to that effect, that being the only non-offensive description of him that could be given. It seems to be the bon mot for the "born-again" crew, particularly the Zionist wing such as Hegseth and Huckabee.
"... if we are to trust latest MSM reports"
With decades of experience, I can give confident advice on this. Bet ... heavily ... on distrust.
Agree. Something is wrong if you try to find truth in MSM.
Trump: “I think Ukraine, militarily, they’re defeated. They had 159 ships. Every ship is underwater. Every one of their planes has been shot down.”
He completely mixed up the Ukraine and the Iran war, the guy's brain is cooked.
Mr. NACHO...“Not A Chane Hormuz Opens”.
so he misspoke and you try to make some kind of hay out of it
BFD
If he can't read 10 inch letters on a teleprompter without getting 'misspoken' he's brain cooked as much as Biden was.
Sorry but expectations at the 'ruler of the free world' are a tad higher than for Karen from Oklahoma.
wait - why are you defending zion don?
Iran is definitely in control here. And is anyone even paying attention to Trump anymore . However , while the USA is suffering a bit of pain at the pump we are doing quite well v the rest of the world . As the price of oil increases, the US frackers are champing at the bit to get …fracking again . Also who knew XOM has 20% of the world’s Helium. So while Iran has embarrassed the US , economically we are doing OK . Note the explosion in stock prices .
Now when we talk about our national debt …that is a different story as is our “ reserve currency “ . Why the heck we are in Iran is beyond me but the Israel Lobby is surely to blame .
Not mentioned here but increasingly by John Mearshimer is the increase threat of deployment of nuclear weapons . How will Israel react if Trump licks his wounds and leaves . Axios is reporting he thinks Israel did him wrong. How will Israel react ? They have nukes . Also there are reports that Russian advisors are getting impatient . Mearshimer mentions a name but I forget .
Simplicus would know . He told Mearshimer he is telling Putin to deliver a nuke and “ correct “ Europe’s thinking about aiding Ukraine .
May you live in interesting times .
Mearsheimer has to find something to talk about because he senses that people have figured out that he already said everything he has to say about 5 months ago
He has nothing new or even interesting to talk about... it's over, John... take your retirement and get the fuck out
You mean Sergey Karaganov. https://www.rt.com/news/639064-eu-has-gone-mad/
this one is also very good summary, including a WITNESS of the ongoing tragedy in Lebanon:
https://rumble.com/v796a0s-not-a-chance-hormuz-opens-nacho-trump-is-now-trapped-in-iran-and-he-knows-i.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp_a
last question: whoa,whoa,whoa, and what about Is-real* ??? Maybe Trump could invite Netanyahoo* to WH, for extended vacation and new training in how to build the new baalroom*?
* intentional typos
The blockade is a legacy imperial instrument meeting a routing problem.
If goods, energy, payments, and legitimacy can reroute through alternative infrastructure, coercion becomes expensive theater.
The question is no longer “can you apply pressure?”
It is “can the target route around you?”
and its an act of war
It may be the best thing for him to do is pack it in. If you haven’t had a chance to read it yet, yesterday I published a piece examining an important point that many Blockade Hawks have downplayed: Gulf allies are only 12–34 days behind Iran on storage pressure. If Tehran decides to wait it out, we could see much broader production shut-ins across the region — not just in Iran.
The article looks at the practical reality of the Strait of Hormuz as a shared chokepoint and what that means for both sides.
https://voicet.substack.com/p/blockade-hawks-overlooked-this-gulf
good, you summarized your important "article" in one paragraph... now I do not feel any need to actually read it.
not that I did, anyway, but at least I know what it is about
Glad I could help you out.
"yesterday I published a piece examining an important point that many Blockade Hawks have downplayed: Gulf allies are only 12–34 days behind Iran on storage pressure. If Tehran decides to wait it out, we could see much broader production shut-ins across the region — not just in Iran."
Even if we accept that as true, why should Trump care? He personally will not suffer, and that is the only thing he cares about.
For that matter, the Americans are perfectly happy to smash everything up, if that is the price of not losing any part of their hegemony.
Yes, there is a mindset to look after our own interest. As for Trump, the behavior is strange. Personally, I would have preferred Ron Paul https://voicet.substack.com/p/alex-jones-and-robert-barnes-sound
A clusterfuck of epic proportions. While we can calculate the damage done by the price of oil I think the political fallout might be the biggest salvo of all. And I don’t just mean for Trump and his Admin. The prestige of the United States has taken an incalculable toll. And everybody knows.