"Never interrupt your opponent when he is in the process of making a mistake. ". The Americans are throwing away their economic, military, diplomatic and financial power of their own volition.
Actually, jews are indoctrinated from infancy in genocidal urges.
See purim and this:
1 Samuel 15:3: "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass."
The mass murder of children and women in Gaza is just the practical following of jewdaic dictums. All 400 jewish federations of North America (and all Holo-museums) "stay with Israel" and support the genocide of "amaleks" of all ages. -- "Major Holocaust museums stand in solidarity with Israel, with many issuing statements supporting Israel's right to defend itself."
United Nations (including UNICEF) have described the Gaza Strip as a "graveyard for children" due to the unprecedented number of children killed during the ongoing Israeli military offensive..."
Mazel Tov to jews on their successful and highly profitable shoah business of "reparations"
It feels most focus is on Iran vs USA. Not much about Israel who continues killing people. I don’t hear or see much condemnation from most countries. It’s running a bit out of the spot light. To some extent I agree with you. If the Israel issue is not sufficiently addressed, there will be no peace in the middle east and it will remain the aircraft carrier of the USA
Then there will be no peace, maybe temporarily, but not on the longer term. Not sure why most countries don’t want to touch, maybe they are afraid they are the next Maduro, Orange man will impose tariffs, maybe they even are occupied countries, either via US bases or “Chevron” (big USA corporations).
Furthermore, if Turkey was “provoked”, Egypt finally had enough, Jordan rebelled and Iraq became (even more) restless….oh and Syria came to it’s senses…. Yeah no, israel would get stomped good and hard. Perhaps overdue.
Forcing the USA to abandon West Asia, which appears more likely every day (there is a substack article somewhere that outlines the US retreat to Hegseth's "Greater America region". Couldn't find it.
I found this one instead. It describes "system A" (e.g. the US) vs "system B" (e.g. china) and declares "B" the winner. Must read.
Did you read all of the 5 parts? Warwick Powell is one who kind of parallels what ChinArb is proposing. Powell applies thermodynamics to the use of energy in the economy. Especially the second law of entropy which can't be stopped.
I watched the video a couple of days back. Interesting point of view. I only read the first article sofar. Time is limited:-(
Had! to order super imperialsm by Hudson and John Darwin After Tamerlane (subscribed to Jeff Rich, Powel restacked one of his articles. It’s a small world 😀)
Notice how Iran said there will be no negotiations without a ceasefire in Lebanon.
But there were negotiations. Was there are a ceasefire in Lebanon? There wasn't. Hezbollah was abanonded, and the IDF was allowed to throw everything at it.
Which is already having consequences -- today we had pictures of IDF soliders posing at the Hezbollah memorial in the center of Bing Jbeil, i.e. the city has been taken, and the situation is not developing positively at all.
Then Trump announced a blockade, i.e. effectively declared war officially. Is anyone shooting at the American ships from the Iranian coast? No.
So has there indeed been a coup in Iran with the Delcys having taken over? Sure smells like it...
Taking a selfie in a pile of rubble in South Lebanon is the easy bit. Those soldiers will be constantly attacked. Some will die and many will have life changing injuries. Eventually they will leave as happened before. Having achieved nothing.
Hezbollah is winning. The World War Monitor has an excellent video on this but as I've admitted I question its goals.
When Iran sent its people to Pakistan, Trump had told them Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. Of course, they didn't expect it to last. But it's good PR to keep China, Russia and the global south on your side so you can "catapult the propaganda"
Why shoot at US Navy ships that are accomplishing nothing? A couple of ships attempted to go through the Strait. The IGRC said turn around in 30 minutes or we will destroy you. IIRC the countdown went to the 1 minute mark when the US Navy ran away.
>Why shoot at US Navy ships that are accomplishing nothing
Perhaps because one of those ships killed 168 little girls and no justice has been served for that? And If no justive is served for that, they will do it again, because why not? So you owe it to the next 168 little girls to make sure nobody dares try that again.
Ah, you're an "eye for an eye" guy. Full of revenge, not a quest for Justice.
Do you want the specific ship that launched those two tomahawks to be destroyed, or will any of them do? If the latter, then if your neighbor across the street from you murders your wife, are you going to go to the house next door (not across the street) and murder the husband?
Justice requires a trial. Maybe the commander of that vessel will be brought up on War Crimes. Maybe not.
For sure though, if Iran turns to revenge, it will fritter away the international public support that has so many who contribute here to rejoicing that the USA is losing.
Iran is winning. Some say it has already won. Postol among those. The USA is trying to provoke an action from Iran that will allow them to tell the world how evil Iran is. Just like Israel. Look at how long it took, decades, to expose it for the incarnate evil that it is.
>Do you want the specific ship that launched those two tomahawks to be destroyed, or will any of them do?
The Iranians know which ship did it, they specifically posted the names and portraits of the officers responsible. So yeah, sink it. And yeah, it is a major issue that it hasn't been done so far.
>If the latter, then if your neighbor across the street from you murders your wife, are you going to go to the house next door (not across the street) and murder the husband?
False analogy, it is not as if the other ships had nothing to do with the aggression on Iran and killed nobody.
>Justice requires a trial.
Which part of "Trump, Netanyahu and a bunch of Zionist billionaires are responsible for this, therefore they should all die" requites a trial?
"Which part of "Trump, Netanyahu and a bunch of Zionist billionaires are responsible for this, therefore they should all die" requires a trial?"
All of it. Every last second of it needs to be aired out in a Nuremberg format. Otherwise, it is just revenge.
Look up the synonyms for vengeance and revenge. Do you see "Justice" in there.
Look up "justice". Do you see what you are describing in there.
Viggo Mortensen, Clint Eastwood and Liam Neeson extract revenge, but the "revenge" that Seal Team 6 extracted on bin Laden makes me sick. They had him. He could have been brought to trial. But they murdered him.
That kind of stuff is what unfounded conspiracy theories are all about. It occurs to me that they had to murder him so he wouldn't reveal his interaction with the US "deep state". The evidence against him is circumstantial. He could have led us to more criminals
Just like when Lee Harvey Oswald was killed by Meyer Lansky lieutenant Jack Ruby (both from the Las Vegas Jewish Mob) and Ruby in turn was injected with a rare form of cancer to shut him up. And we still don't know who murdered JFK.
Do you know about the company that was suppose to have made the "device" that killed Charlie Kirk?
"Accurate Energetic Systems (AES) is a manufacturing plant located in McEwen, Tennessee, specializing in the production of explosives for military and commercial applications. The facility experienced a catastrophic explosion on October 10, 2025, resulting in 16 fatalities and several injuries."
Your "plan" just causes a feud that leads to nothing good. But then you watched too many Westerns as a little kid or something.
"Xi Jinping: "Spain has positioned itself on the right side of history, it is a very reasonable country. China stands with Spain. We will work together for world peace and oppose the law of the jungle.""
Look into ChinArb's stack and his 5 part series on the change in world order. The Thugs are going to be removed.
In Shia Islam, Jesus (Isa) is revered as a major prophet, the Messiah (Masih), and the "Word" and "Spirit" of Allah, born miraculously to Mary without a father. He is considered a sinless, human messenger of God who did not die on the cross but was raised to heaven, and he will return alongside Imam al-Mahdi to establish justice at the end of time.
First send DJT & Co. home with their tails between their legs, then confront Zion aka Occupied Palestine. Once the bully has been humiliated, the sidekick will think twice about what's likely coming next to whom.
The current price of oil due to the blockades might make Venezuela oil an attractive investment? And put a floor under the market for US gas fracking so that it can be profitable to keep poking more holes in the ground?Trump did explain it. When asked by the reporter who will control the straits he said; “maybe me and the ayatollah!” Production costs matter, the market matters. You don’t want to invest in a long term project and then have cheaper to produce hydrocarbons flood the market and undercut your financials. Globally we burn more every year. New discoveries need to be constantly happening, if they don’t our modern way of life evaporates and we go back 200 years. Which would be fine except for all the nuclear armed states and chaos that would ensue.
The suggestion that civilization would revert 200 years if we decided to actually live within our means and foster our resources is fear-mongering garbage propaganda promoted by energy companies.
Ted Postol discusses several theories in this long discussion with Krapivnik on climate change.
I especially appreciated the "climate change" portion where he explained that the earth travels through different parts of the galaxy which might have much more dust; also Earth's orbit does not remain the same but it moves closer and then further away from the Sun; add to is sunspots and clouds. He pretty much has no patience for those whining about climate change. He demolishes the models that predict global warming because of CO2 because none of them take into account clouds. Then he provides historical evidence of sea level change.
Interview with Krapivnik. The Truth of Climate Science. I love the opening ad from "Moscow Connect". I might have to ask if there's anywhere in Russia where we can snorkel. (LOL)
I recall a time in the 90’s when the Environmental Movement was hijacked and used as a social engineering device. It was noticeable and followed previous patterns (GrassRoot >>> AstroTurf conversion). As per the usual, indoctrination and emotional response coupled with Consensus Science (tm) were (and continue to be) used to guide the masses through the appropriate gates. Fear, panic, extremist behavior and the enforced willingness to accept increasingly draconian measures in the name of Climate Crisis.
It’s helpful to have clarity around the language. “Ok, do you mean Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change? Or are we talking about the billion year cycles that predate our species?” “Carbon or CO2?”.
Sometimes if one can be bothered, questions can be asked such as: Given that climate has historically changed quite drastically over time, are you suggesting that domesticated primates arrest this process and instate a never changing climate? If there are to be changes, what are acceptable parameters. Yes I know, it’s terribly challenging and threatening to her indoctrinated and arguably a waste of energy. But it is worth having some widgets handle to dismantle any panicky non-arguments you may encounter…..
Which reminds me of the instance of the English bricklayer who objected to the film as his daughter was shown it, he went to court and won the case against the film being spurious, inaccurate et al….
"A British school governor, Stewart Dimmock, sued Al Gore over his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth," alleging it was inaccurate and biased. The High Court judge ruled that while the film was "substantially founded upon scientific research and fact," it contained nine errors and was too one-sided for classroom use without additional guidance."
Reminds me of the Michael Moore sponsored movie by Jeff Gibbs. "planet of the humans". What a piece of crap that was.
I was wondering about Venezuela when Dmiti Orlov set me straight. Venezuela is only able to produce 1M BPD of heavy crude. My "on the back of a napkin" calculations suggest that the US will still be short of heavy, sour crude up to the 30%. Good enough to convince me that airline tickets are going up in price and many fewer flight, diesel will rise considerably and New England won't have enough heating oil in December.
US crude is light, sweet. It is mostly naphtha which is difficult to get rid of unless you can blend it with distillates from the Venezuelan oil.
This article from Steven Newbury is quite enlightening:
FWIW, Venezuela only pumps about 1M bpd. It is all heavy, sour crude. You have to have this stuff to make jet fuel. You can't make jet fuel out of the wells in the US. All Oil is not fungible. There are many different types. At its all-time high Venezuela was only putting out 3M bpd. Yes, the reason Trump took Venezuela was to gain access to that crude, but it's still stuck in the ground. Speculation is months to years to increase production.
Maybe they'll hire it out to the Chinese and be up and running in a week or two.
Anyone have any thoughts on Brian Berletic's & Richard Medhurst's argument that this is primarily an energy blockade against China? So the main objective is to prevent China from freely accessing the fossil fuel it needs without permission from (& commission to?) the US; the US accessing and utilising the oil itself is a secondary consideration.
The perspective that China is the ultimate enemy of the USA has been expounded on since Obama when he announced the "pivot to Asia".
Medhurst is compelling. There are other explanations of how this will all work. Crooke outlined that the US is being even more despicable in that the American Billionaires want to crash the world economies so that only the US remains a viable economy like it was at the end of WWII.
The absolutely most horrible suggestion was articulated by Krapivnik who summed up proposals by the WEF and other international forums. (Remember, "you will own nothing, and you will be happy"? How about the plan to feed you insects.)
Stan called it the "Golden Billion". The goal is to reduce the world's population to under 1B people. I keep posting this because people aren't considering it seriously. They do not understand the immorality and criminality of the "Epstein Class."
All the friction with China created over Taiwan was to achieve this goal.
Berletic shows the number of US military bases that surround China. The US remained in Afghanistan as long as it did because it is on China's border.
The claims of Uyghur Genocide in Xinjiang were because the NED financed the ETIM terrorists who indiscriminately were murdering civilians, government officials and engineers. China to action to kick the ETIM out and was successful.
There have been several attempts at "color revolutions" in the "stans". Imran Khan was removed from power in Pakistan and is still in prison. Bangladesh had a color revolution. It is near the Chinese oil pipeline that runs through Myanmar to avoid the strait of Malacca.
Even the Ukraine war was set up to defeat China. Yes the criminal neocons had plans to break up Russia and steal its resourced, but the ultimate prize here was to deny those resources to China. You may have heard rumors, which are now not being heard so often, that Biden and Trump wanted to become friends with, Russia, doing to get them to disavow China.
Soon it won't matter when the shortages hit, and oil is 150 a barrel regardless of what futures say they are. Then no amount of jawboning will ease the market.
‘AP confirmed that not a single US warship was in the Persian Gulf’
And there is an excellent reason for that, it is called geography. The US is reluctant to carry the war into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz as Iran is there to hit back from land. Therefore, they try to export the war far enough to the Southeast where Iran cannot be a party. In other words we are looking at two theaters of conflicts existing parallel, stopping or sinking boats, collecting tariffs but not fighting with each other. If Irannian boats are stopped and ripped off by the US Navy all Iran has to do is to increase the tariffs to the point where losses are replaced and add some for profit on top. Iran’s advantage is that it has to police the Strait at a narrow area only from land while the US has to spread out forces in an area many hundreds of miles wide.
It's more problematic than that. The US wants to interdict ships carrying Iranian oil from Iranian ports. These would be ships bound for India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore etc, and often owned by entities in the consuming nations - no matter what flag of convenience the ships are flying.
If they didn't volunteer then the military industrial complex wouldn't have the man power to run around the world destabilizing. More importantly, without the reserve currency, there would be no way to fund the never ending wars. This failed war will be the nail in the coffin for the dollar. Once this is over, the dollar crashes.
It's important to know that a single aircraft carrier consumes 17,000 meals a day, requiring resupply several times a month. And for 24-hour flight operations, at least two tankers are needed.
How many ships/crews belong to a single task force? They all need food.
True. "In 2022, the U.S. Navy aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Abraham Lincoln experienced significant potable water contamination due to maintenance failures and aging infrastructure. The Nimitz was contaminated with JP-5 jet fuel, sickening 11 sailors, while the Lincoln suffered from E. coli bacteria contamination, both causing foul water odor and taste, leading to extensive flushing and repair efforts."
Nice bit of detail there Jurgen, 17k meals per day, plus as Victor mentions above the "Water". This imo lends a big chunk of credibility to a comment on MoA that there wasn't any Laundy fire on the Ford, it most likely got hit. Why else would the AC H.W. Bush choose to sail via the Cape of Good Hope when it could just hop across the Pond to the Straits of Gibraltar ? Because they're very worried it might just happen again. To paraphrase Wilde's observation in "The Importance of being Ernest" to lose one Carrier may be accidental, to lose two is absolutely Careless. No doubt they trust that there are enough friendly African allies to facilitate the necessary resupply. However, given the number of folk they've pi$$Ed off, that might be a moot point.
Then there is the matter of the RotW looking to make deals with Iran re: safe passage. At a certain point the USA will become “the one who is blockading” causing other nations to “make moves”. Hold most of the planet hostage and choking their energy supply is not a greta look and maybe its also the goal…
Over 10,000. One CV, 10 destroyers, a couple of subs, support ships, maybe a frigate and to get too close to Iran or the Houthi you better bring a couple of cruisers.
Simp thinks this is a pathetic strategy, that it shows how weak a country is to not line their ships up nice and tidy for the enemies missiles. This is called "stupid" to Simp who is a 4 Star Arm Chair General with a terminal case of TDS.
It's a useless and illegal strategy because many of the ships Trump believes he should pirate if they paid the toll are headed to our allies. Not that difficult to figure out.
And the majority of the ships that don't need to pay the toll are headed to ... China
As to the land basis. Daniel Davis (Deep Dive) and Col MacGregor discussed the Dardanelles Campaign, WW I. The greatest naval force at the time, the Royal Navy, was unable to get past the land-based Ottoman defences. Having said that, it WAS touch and go in the end, if you study the campaign.
The point is, as naval commanders know, ships are vulnerable to land if the land defences are strong.
That campaign was a feint, and a poorly executed one at that. Sending some colonial soldiers into hell never phased the Admiralty. Perfidious bastards.
You will find, when you check it up, that more British soldiers died than the fabled ANZACs. 34k British; 9k Australian; 3k NZ (approx figures)
Further, as an idea to open up a new front, initially, it was good. ie bogged down due to trenches. But, the thinking was let down by the fact that Russia did not take part in ground support. There were many other variables which this article does not take into account. However, the main point is, the Colonials were not the main attacking force and neither the main casualties: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallipoli_campaign
That may be true but it doesn't change the fact that the colonials were landed in a position with little land for staging and cliffs preventing any advance. You seem knowledgeable, just how many Europeans were in their number?
You are correct that there was not a proper beach to land. Also, like a lot of campaigns, it was not though through properly. Instead of going in with a full sea and land force, the navy was sent first and, when that failed, land forces followed.
Yes. Iran has spent four decades preparing for this show-down. It's almost as if Iranian policy makers were reading western think-tank reports and studying US land-air-sea strategy to counter it asymmetrically.
Any US warship that was in the Gulf would be in very deep trouble. It could be instantly destroyed at Iranian pleasure, and could not leave the Gulf without Iranian permission.
"US warship ... could be instantly destroyed at Iranian pleasure"
Well ... not quite. A NImitz-class carrier would be extremely difficult to "destroy". These ships are monsters, more than 330 metres long, and very heavily armoured. One of these beasts could certainly absorb a couple of direct hits from shore-to-ship missiles, though that might disable aircraft operations from the flight deck for several hours (the ships carry equipment and material to repair damage to the flight deck) and would cause casualties.
Forget the images of the Atlantic Conveyor being sunk in the Falklands war by just two hits of Exocet missiles. That ship was a commercial vessel, not a warship, with no armour and no defences.
Some Iranian missiles deliver 1-ton warheads. An even more important consideration is the terminal velocity. China is known to have developed large, powerful missiles specifically designed to sink US aircraft carriers, and I think we can trust the designers of those missiles to have done their sums.
Regardless of armour plate, it seems obvious that carriers are very vulnerable. The 1967 fire on USS Forrestal came close to destroying her altogether. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_USS_Forrestal_fire - and that was caused by the accidental firing of a single small rocket.
Hypersonic missiles will do massive damage if they hit from both the explosion and the kinetic impact . A inert penetrator hitting the deck in a vertical strike has the potential to go right through. Something like Russias Oreshnik would be probably fatal if it could be targeted accurately.
The same is true of Kinzhals and Zircons. The only question is whether Iran has caught up with Russia and China in the specific department of sinking carriers. I would not care to bet they haven’t, since attack by carriers has been predictable ever since 1979.
And striking down your enemy by hitting what he took to be his greatest strength is very Sun Tzu.
‘China is known to have developed large, powerful missiles specifically designed to sink US aircraft carriers, and I think we can trust the designers of those missiles to have done their sums.’
I did read they built lifesize replicas of the deck layout of carriers in the desert and kept practicing on them with missiles until they did get it right. Scary people :))
Chinese children learn Chinese alphabet - this alone improves their attentional control, discipline, and memory.
"In 2024, China's IP office received 1.8 million patent applications, which is over three times the number submitted to the United States."
"Approximately 93% of the 1,279 "super-mobile" inventors (those moving between the US and China) are estimated to be ethnic Chinese. Nearly 40% of foreign-born US inventors originating from China and India."
"Increasingly, top talent is returning to China, and researchers from China are making significant breakthroughs in AI and, in some cases, bypassing U.S. technology restrictions to create, for example, their own, faster chips."
It is either or. Either they are ‘Scary people’ or we allowed us to be immunized silly. When you go back to the first half of the 19th century, America, you see very high literary rates in the northeast and an extreme high flow of constant new inventions. We were the scary people.
I must admit that when I wrote my original comment I had no notion whatever that an aircraft carrier would be sent into the Gulf. I was thinking of frigates and destroyers, which have virtually no armour.
To send a carrier into the lion’s mouth would be politically impossible, never mind the tactical considerations. Once inside it could be hit scores of times by missiles with heavy warheads and high terminal velocities. It could even be hit by tube artillery. And it could be torpedoed. One lesson of WW2 was that no matter how heavily armoured a ship might be above the waterline, below the water it was usually unprotected.
Navigation would be affected, of course. But perhaps not very seriously. The strait is over 20 miles wide at its narrowest, and separate lanes are designated for incoming and outgoing ships. Each lane is 2 miles wide, with a 2-mile separation between them.
A Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is about 1,100 feet long and 250 feet wide. Even if it sank lengthwise across the channel, it could block only about a tenth of it. If, as is more likely, it retained its orientation while sinking, it would block only one fortieth of the channel. Its position could be marked by buoys and lights, and it would hardly obstruct the passage of even the largest tankers and container ships.
Although its situation at the bottom of the sea would definitely concentrate the minds of captains, owners, and governments.
In any case there would be no need to sink it in the Straits. It could be allowed into the Gulf proper, which would also reduce the risk of it turning around and escaping, as the two US destroyers did the other day.
I doubt anyone seriously considers sinking to be a good option. It’s messy, it’s toxic and the evidence of failure is beneath the waves. Wound the beast and it continues to suck resources.
How many drones would it take to takeout the flight deck or the elevators rendering the ship useless.
My understanding is the "laundry fire" on the Ford was because of a swarm of Iranian drones. It will not be repaired for at least a year and possibly 2.
Pretty much what's the difference, I'd call it "destroyed", although not "sunk"
Actually, the larger a ship the more a reasonable thickness of armour will weigh in aggregate. That’s why HMS “Hood”, the doomed forerunner of today’s aircraft carriers, was blown up within 5 minutes of entering combat against German warships. “Hood” was 860 feet long and 104 feet wide, and displaced less than half as much as the US carriers. Even so, it was impossible to give her enough armour to avoid destruction without sacrificing the speed that was supposed to be the battlecruiser’s greatest strength. Precisely because she was the world’s biggest warship at the time, her deck armour was only 3 inches thick. It is even possible (though unlikely) that she was destroyed as a result of explosions set off by an 8-inch shell from the German heavy cruiser “Prinz Eugen” - the very type of ship that battlecruisers had been invented to defeat!
The problem is much worse with the American carriers, which have a far larger area of hull to protect. Even with their nuclear power plants, the high speed that is required for their role limits the weight of armour that could be carried.
Drachinifel has a pretty comprehensive Youtube on how the Hood was sunk.
TLDR, her own speed + a turn killed her. The trough behind her bow wave + the heel of her turn allowed a Bismark shell to deflect off the water, UNDER her armor belt into a secondary armament magazine adjacent her rear main magazine, the detonation of the former blew up the latter.
Maybe. I have seen many other explanations. That is certainly ingenious.
But the fact remains that because “Hood” was so lightly armoured, even “Prinz Eugen”’s 8” shells could have penetrated.
At the Battle of the Falkland Islands in 1914, the very first time Fisher’s battlecruisers engaged in combat, “Invincible” came within a few feet of destruction. An 8” shell from one of Graf Spee’s armoured cruisers sliced right through her puny armour and was found nestled up against the wall of a main armament magazine. Had that shell penetrated, or even exploded where it came to rest, the battlecruiser concept would have been still-born. Destroyed by one of the very ships she was designed to defeat!
It might be worse in that the Amethyst had some Chinese help and was able to evacuate; I doubt they'll be Iranians willing to help. The US will have to perform another "heroic rescue mission."
Oh yes. As a boy I read the book “Escape of the Amethyst” by C. E. Lucas Phillips, and was impressed both by the difficulty of the ship’s position and by the fact that the officers and crew managed to escape in the end. If the Chinese had disposed of weapons anything like those that Iran has today, the Amethyst would have had to surrender.
Not really. There are a limited number of ships that pass through the strait at a time. With radar and satellites the Navy knows where every one is. They aren't fast. The Navy ships are. 200 miles is less than 6 hours at 30 knots. I'd say its a draw in that either side can interdict what they want to. How far they will actually go in doing this is the question....
FWIW: OPTM Show has some very interesting stuff, but it seems to verge on pro-Iranian propaganda like the "Silver Economy" and "World War Monitor". OTOH just because the MSM doesn't cover the story, doesn't mean it didn't happen.
EDIT: don't know where to put this so, here it is from No1:
"Hormuz blockade reality gap: CENTCOM vs. satellite data. CENTCOM claims zero breaches in first 24 hours. Maritime tracking firms Kpler and TankerTrackers identify multiple vessels that transited anyway, including a sanctioned VLCC supertanker entering Iran with AIS switched on. A US destroyer interdicted two tankers leaving Chabahar, but tanker "Quar" is crossing toward China. The gap between Pentagon claims and what satellite data shows is widening. Confidence: HIGH (5+ sources including CENTCOM, TankerTrackers, Reuters, Windward)"
The chief target of this naval blockade , besides Tehran, is China. I wonder if the US is stupid enough to try stop Chinese ships going to and from Iranian ports. If it does that will massively ramp up this conlflict.
You absolutely have a strong point there but something tells me if China decides to go for a first direct conflict with the US they will opt for the Taiwan area. I do not really know what is the full capacity of the Russian pipeline from Siberia but sooner or later the Russians will find a way to send enough oil there in case it is really needed. Is it possible they could load tankers in Vladivostok?
I wager the Chinese or Russians arranged some way for America to save face. The Iranians understand this, and probably they are a bit surprised that they actually pulled off such a clear win.
Keep this in mind: Erdogan is talking tough, that probably means Erdogan sees the danger receding.
Who's going to buy it (a 5 year stop of Iranian uranium enrichment as a "Trump win")except the most rabid MAGA?
I think speculation about the next few months up to the mid-terms have interesting theories, but few facts to back them up.
Trump was hired by the "Epstein Class" board of directors to achieve the objections they defined. They didn't tell him how to do it. (Miriam Adelson's $100M campaign donation I'm sure had a huge influence on the narcissist). I'm sure they discussed it with him. The "board" uses Netanyahu as a front to communicate their wishes. It isn't so much that Netanyahu is told what to say, but that he too has his "orders". Then Hegseth is an idiot. So...
Will the Billionaires even allow elections. We should all know by now that the vote is rigged. No matter who you vote for you get Jeffrey Epstein.
So a doomsday scenario that Krapivnik puts forward is here. The "board" wants to reduce Earth's population to under 1B. Sad to say that this outcome confirms what Trump is doing is in line with that goal.
It's a very short read of the transcript of the YouTube video. Take you maybe 3-5 minutes. But it certainly sheds a different light on events. The "Epstein Class" has been telling us for decades that this was their plan. Remember how "you will own nothing and you will be happy?" How about the plan to eat bugs?
I keep posting this article, it gets restacked, but no comments. Is it because people just don't want to face the reality that the "board" is that evil? Yet, they believe the "Epstein Class" actually eats babies.
The Russians played that role with respect to Syria, how did that story conclude in the end?
The signs are very ominous now.
Venezuela was finished when Trump announced a blockade, i.e. effectively officially declared war, parked the ships right in front of Caracas, and nobody was shooting at them.
Notice how Iran is doing the exact same thing now.
Also, Vance said today that it was great success that they got "the guy who actually runs Iran now" physically at the table with him. So who is that guy? The new ayatollah wasn't there, was he? Does he even exist at this point, or he was killed/maimed and there was a coup by the Zarif faction, but they are keeping up appearances to placate the internal situation and make sure they are able to sell the country out without a revolution stopping them?
Yesterday, I listened to that Chinese professor at Glen Dissen's channel. He said that China was outsmarted by the USA, as the Chinese never thought of USA ships becoming pirate ships. So, he said, on short term USA is winner here as China would be forced to buy American LNG. So China would sacrifice Iran. Over Russia, we should not talk, Russia has sacrificed all its allies.
The USA is going to besiege Iran,m destroy all railway lines and bridges and all ports, and let the Iranian population slowly die. That is what the Chinese professor said, and that is the most logical considering how the Americans think.
"China has accumulated up to 1.4 billion barrels of oil in strategic reserves, invested 25 years in renewable energy, and purchased 80% of cheap Iranian oil: how Beijing has prepared for decades for the crisis that is now shaking the world."
Alyosha, I recently read elsewhere that China has scaled up the Liquifacation of Coal, thus enabling to be fractionally distilled as is Oil. This is by no means a new thing, been around over Century afaik, but to do this at a massive scale is a game changer.
China wouldn't buy American LNG if Russia could meet its needs. Russia has obligations to Hungary for instance. Funny that now that Orban has been removed through a top-level EU conspiracy (American Oligarchy puppets) Ukraine has opened the gas pipeline from Russia again.
Gee, a "regime change" in a member of NATO. How weird is that?
The "board" (the "epstein class" that gives politicians the objective, while allowing the executive to decide what actions to take) wants war with Russia. Orban was in the way.
But it seems that Magyar is not going to be much different from Orban regarding oil and gas purchases.
I think the main win that VdL got is that she will, probably successfully, push for changes in voting system on foreign policy. To qualified majority only.
That guy is a total EU puppy. As time goes on he will follow instructions to the letter, even send soldiers to Ukraine. He just needs some time to turn the ship. Two years down I can see a revolt against him similar to the 2006 event that opened the gate for the Orban takeover.
Now that the Chinese guy can’t go back and delete incorrect predictions he made in the past so that only correct predictions exist to confirm his prophetic abilities his predictive ability has degraded significantly. According to him a ground invasion of Iran was going to happen last weekend. That is an almost comical misread of the tactical challenges the US is facing in Iran, which make maintaining a ceasefire far more preferable.
Caspian ports are operating, it took one call from Putin to Netanyahu early on to stop Israeli efforts. Russia is resupplying bis this route and through Turkmenistan. The bridges on the rail route directly to China have been repaired. The new trade corridor via Pakistan is now operating. The land routes to Iran are in place.
Direct flights from Russia and China operate as normal.
At sea boats can sail in Iranian national waters through the Oman Gulf all the way to Pakistani waters. The US navy will be very reluctant to interfere with Chinese, Russian or Pakistani boats in these waters. China has already indicated it is 'considering' intervention if such a threat on it's boats is made. That threat will be enough to maintain safe passage, Trump may be mad but the US navy guys generally are not.
This is a very expensive nothing burger for PR purposes.
True. Add the Chinese guided missile cruiser that arrived a couple of days ago. Add that Iran keeps tankers in its territorial waters until they have passed the point where the US Navy's piddling force of 16 ships can do anything about it. Finally the oil pipeline through Myanmar means a much quicker turn-around and no US Marine interdiction in the Malacca Strait.
It baffles me how some people manage to get amplified to achieve guru status on different platforms.
Like the Zionist Melanie Phillips on X after Elon Musk retweeted some of her videos. She has nothing new or original to add to the debate. What do the Zionists have on Elon that they got him to promote her? Is she the replacement for an ailing Jordan Petersen, also a Zionist mouthpiece.
I’m surprised at what you wrote. I saw the video you mentioned with G Dissen twice and I’m surprised that you agree with Xueqin that the US is capable of putting boots on the ground and destroying Iran into a slow death (which has not done so far).
If you had been playing attention to how Iran was responding to the Israhellis and the US you would have noticed that Iran was very restrained in its responses. It targeted military or military-related targets. Even when the others targeted bridges and power plants. The Zionists were carpet bombing of course because that’s how they behave, by nature.
However, as soon as these hits started and Iran threatened to target power plants and infrastructure in the region and in the Zionist settlement, the US conceded a two week ceasefire and wanted negotiations.
Let’s see: The US lost all its bases in the Middle East, lost many aircraft including an E-3 AWACS, many Patriot, THAAD AD batteries and the bilion $ AN/TPY-2 radar and had a failed attempt to retrieve the “nuclear dust”.
And had to beg for negotiations because Hormuz is closed and controlled by Iran.
If you call this winning by the US, what can I say
- US is going to destroy all bridges and railway junctions
- US is going to destroy all ports
- US is going to besiege Iran and wait until the population or Iran is destroyed by hunger
that is what he said. I think that is what the USA/Israel is going to do. That is something they can do and they would really love to de. They do not need boots on the ground for that.
I suppose they shall destroy all power stations also.
He also noted that China made a terrible error by not realizing that USA can resort to piratery. He said that China shall accept US dominance on the planned meeting in May.
HE also said, that on the long run, the world population will turn against US. But I do not think that is possible. We see that so called American dream is still the most desired (imaginary) way of life for all nations. There must be some kind of erotic attraction between the plain Homo Sapiens and US ideology. Maybe that desire to "kill kill kill , bomb bomb bomb" that is some manifestation of death cult that made US so attractive.
The solid thing we know is that Iran has proven to be extremely lethal and their mountain fortresses are robust. Infinity resupply across a vast land borders. What we see now is plausibly explained as Iran maintaining its Baby Face image to the American Heel. Iranian s fight without ego, understand big dummy don needs to save face after that world-historical ass whooping
sorry but there is NO SOLID THING that you, or anybody else here, knows.
We all get our info from the internet. The internet is FULL OF BULLSHIT coming from all directions: you can believe whatever the hell you want to believe
That is why I find all these armchair strategists amusing... they believe anything and then present themselves as experts, start insulting people who disagree, and behave like teenagers
we don't know what Iran has or can do. We don't know what Damage israel has suffered. We don't know how many bullets, rockets, etc anybody has.
All we know is fucking nothing. so why act like we do?????
The IRGC doesn't need to negotiate. It's job is martial in nature and was given a free-hand during the 12 Day War to prosecute military actions as necessary. As far as I know, parliament hasn't rescinded the responsibility.
Simple- Israel intends to use the Americans to wreck or extract concessions from the stronger countries in the area now, while Israel can still count on unconditional unlimited US support.
The US blockade meme is little more than a distraction narrative to keep the media busy until the next strike force is in place to carry out the pentagram's next - doomed to failure - plan for a media 'victory'.
Where is this strike force suppose to attack? A lot of generals were fired because (reportedly) they refused to follow stupid orders. That does mean a lot of Evangelical Christians have moved up in rank.
But go to the MRFF site and see the campaign valiantly being pursued by Mikey Weinstein. There could be a "soldier revolt".
“we cannot have anyone - especially Iran - blockading the strategic Straits - so we will do it too” Is this rational policy or just soon to be reversed off the cuff decisions? I would really like to know what is the strategic aspect of any of this…. I will wait
The Chinese Rich Starry tanker was originally reported as having passed the Straits. It now appears to have turned back due to US blockade. The Chinese navy are sending escorts.
" 'The US and Israel may use peace talks to prepare for a ground operation against Iran. The Pentagon continues to build up a troop grouping in the region, - Russian Security Council
Currently, more than 50,000 American military personnel are already concentrated in the Middle East.'
But again: where would they land when US’s toughest ships are terrified of going within range of Iran’s missiles, which are swiftly being recouped as we speak?" I have no source of information beyond what I read on the news and no military experience, but just pointing out that a ground operation against Iran may not necessarily mean a ground operation within Iran. They could be planning to send folks into Gulf countries (or any country close enough that would let them) who would carry out operations *from* there.
Also, what would a mere 50k troops do in such a massive country? Especially since supply lines in such terrain against a foe with endless drones could not be guaranteed. Hopefully one of those 50k is a good writer so we can get "The Anabasis 2.0: A March Slightly Southeast."
Thank you for raising that very important point.... Larry Johnson loves to throw that figure around and it doesn't mean shit
There might be 5-8000 real fighters in the area, most of them still on ships.
May be a lot of Supersoldiers in the area, but they need to be very careful where they go and how they get there... resupply will be a interesting job, too.
They can come from Saudi Arabia/Azerbaijan direction. No ships. Straight into the oil rich region. Professor Robert Pape has war gamed this for 30 years. Well worth looking at his writings and videos.
And another item the US military fanboys are missing is that they won't just be facing Iranian military; every Iranian from teenagers to elderly will fight them.
The Jews can't do it even with millions of grunts.
WRT Russian tankers, it is my understanding that Wagner PMC forces are deployed on the ships. Any marine trying to repel from a helicopter won't make it to the deck alive.
"I can't imagine the USN boarding Russian, Chinese or even European and Japanese tankers."
I wish I could be so sure in my own skeptical and concerned consciousness. But the folks in D.C... I couldn't have imagined a lot of the stuff they've already done.
Well, if they use traditional WWII tactics (there are several articles around the web saying the US is stuck in WWII) the troops will mass, the Russian and Satellite ISR will provide targeting data. Swarms of drones and several multi-warhead missiles will kill them before they cross any border.
Russia was using 6's and 3's to advance in Ukraine. The traditional US military shock and awe is obsolete. FPV drones will find any group that's more than 6 and they will be immediately targeted.
If you don't know about the Millennium Challenge, the "blue" team was defeated by the "red" team in 48 hours. IOW "they knew" what the result of this attack on Iran was going to be. They just refused to believe it. The Israel Lobby told them it wasn't true.
I give fux bcs as the petro dollar goes down, fast or slowly, prices for commodities, ie real stuff, goes up. Eg food, everywhere. That's got my attention.
the petrodollar is dead, the saudis killed it a couple years back
the petrodollar is based on an agreement that the saudis would sell their oil only in dollars... that is HISTORY and has been for a couple years at LEAST
You obviously haven't seen the petro sales volumes for the gulf countries. What options do they have now their revenues have dried up? No good ones that's for sure.
‘The USS Lincoln was reportedly spotted now only 200-300km away from Iranian shores near Chabahar port in the Sea of Oman’
That is way to close to Iran. Don’t be surprised if every single toilet clogs up and the main laundry room goes up in fire as a result of electrical shortage.
It is rather difficult to guess what the US intentions are here. One thing is sure, the idea most likely came from Trump to send the boat there but at the very least he had to sign off on this. The Lincoln is one of the largest moving targets the US Navy can offer. The US intention can be to bait the Iranians to hunt for the Lincoln and if they get lucky hit them with nukes as an answer. The problem is that the exact Iranian missile capabilities are likely not fully known. The water temp at Oman is around 25C now, but it is still unlikely that the men on the Lincoln are interested to get into that water. Computer simulations state that 6 to 8 ballistic missiles have the potential to sink a major carrier. I am guessing a lot of nervous seaman on that large thing there right now. If two or three missiles hit the Lincoln becomes a stationery target and will be lost.
I am confident that the men on deck know approximately what the chances are to get hit there and they are greatly unhappy to be used like this. If the Lincoln gets hit with a few missiles Trump will immediately send in everything around and very possibly use nukes to suppress fire from land.
Everybody is talking about ‘red lines’ and in reality they don’t really know where exactly those are. Nuclear nations and their nukes and confrontations keep multiplying, increasing the probability of nuke use constantly. Nukes and the smart butts around the Manhattan Project should have been nipped in the bud at the early stage as it was clearly insanity what they were doing.
A provocation may lead to an immediate reaction of Iran. The sailors could be the sacrificial lambs and I think they are aware of that. As Kennewick Man says, it may lead to sabotaging the ship
Please recall that it was already established: You are the one who consumes magic mushrooms here. I have zero desire to watch a nuclear war as I fully understand the consequences. I am simply guessing the possible outcomes from the minds of unstable homicidal maniacs with a single goal in mind: Kill and destroy.
“Fanboy” is unnecessarily derogatory. I don’t believe anyone trying to imagine HOW Trump is going to snatch victory from humiliation would fail to consider nuclear weapons.
Kennewik Man is stuck in teenage mode: Oooh.. nuclear war is so kool.
All the serious players know better and understand that conventional weaponry will decide, and resorting to nukes will only be done if one is attacked with nukes first... which is why the sea-based deterrent decides. Nobody can say for sure where the enemy has his city-killers hidden, until it is too late.
>That is way to close to Iran. Don’t be surprised if every single toilet clogs up and the main laundry room goes up in fire as a result of electrical shortage.
Nobody is shooting at them.
Which is a very, very bad sign.
Why is nobody shooting at them? Ceasefire you say? But declaring a blockade is declaring war, because a blockade is an act of war. You start taking out the ships immediately once that is done.
Also, has there been any meaningful revenge for the events of February 28 and June 12? No. Just for the 168 schoolgirls at least one ship should have gone down with all the crew. But that hasn't happened. Worse, the IRGC people whose children those schoolgirls were are still there, why are they not launching missiles? It's precisely those units who were stationed around Minab.
There hasn't been a single prominent Israeli or US figure taken out either. Iran has the resources to get anyone anywhere, and if this was Khomeini, US politicians would be taking losses on US soil by now. It's fairly trivial to arrange. But nothing of the sort is happening.
There is the hypothesis that a silent coup did in fact happen. Less obvious so far than the Delcy Rodriguez one in Venezuela, but it would have to be less obvious because there would likely be an immediate revolutionary reaction to it, unlike in Venezuela. Iran is much more of a real country. And I see nothing in what is happening that contradicts that hypothesis, quite the opposite, it explains the situation best. Trump sure throws these phrases around about "new leadership" that he can work with, etc. Maybe it is not just random words...
"You start taking out the ships immediately once that is done."
It's amazing that all the generals and politicians who are currently tasked with defending Iran with all the most up to date information about everything available to them haven't grasped such simple truths obvious to a man at a keyboard thousands of miles away with only the internet as his source of information.
Right? Generals thinking in these terms somehow don't get it:
"A strategist will be successful if he correctly evaluates the nature of a war, which depends on different economic, social, geographic, administrative
and technical factors."
So many smarty pants here with so much to say, could monetize it.
Yeah, the fact that the other side are lying, conniving, frauds is precisely the point. Iran wins because the Western MSM can't cover up the fact that Israel and the US always lie.
Ritter was speculating that China put some pressure on Iran to go to Islamabad. "Everyone knew" what the outcome was going to be. But China (and Russia) are into appeasing Public Opinion.
You don't get labeled as the "good guy" if you don't live up to the standards you set for yourself.
Why you keep repeating this nonsense about Iran (and Russia) "act like they've surrendered, is just strange. "Why are you so gun-happy?"
Why do you miss the point about Judo?
Maybe watch a bit of Raymond Reddington and how he often appears to have "surrendered".
* Italy has torn up its defense treaty with Israel
* Turkey has met Israel in the East Med and turned them back
Assad was never well liked by his subjects. Assad turned down help when he needed it the most. Syria was neck deep in US sponsored terrorists.
Iranians are super patriotic. The division of military effort between the IGRC and the Iranian army created a force of over 2M men that will oppose any invasion. The Mossad agents throwout Iran have mostly been exposed. The traitors who participated in the false-flag murders have been identified and executed. China and Russia are providing real-time intelligence to Iran exposing other Mossad agent.
The "strategic situation" has changed enormously.
* everyone hates Israel
* the EU is about to kick the US bases out of Europe.
* NATO is about to implode
* Russia is accomplishing its objectives in Ukraine
* S. Korea has recognized the perfidy of the US and I predict will make overtures to the North to reconcile. China will be happy to trade with Korea. Japan, maybe not so much.
* China has the largest industrial base in the world.
* China has passed the US in PPP.
*The BRICS have a higher combined GDP than the G7
You need to go to ChinArb's stack and read his 5-part paper.
In the meantime, stop with the ridiculous statements demanding revenge and how Russia and China are losing. It makes you look naive and silly.
"I continue to maintain that Iran has taken far less damage than people think, and most of the damage they did take will likely be repaired within days, weeks, and months at the most for a few key things." I'm concerned about the human cost and the impact on infrastructure essential to life and survival (hospitals, doulas, medical doctors, nurses, epidemiologists, pharmaceuticals, water infrastructure, electric grid, maternity care, education infrastructure, homelessness resources, community or state safety net programs, security, legal and judicial infrastructure, etc.). I'm also very concerned about the impact on archaeology and historic sites. I know there are many religious sites across Iran, including sites sacred to the so-called Abrahamic faiths and to Zoroastrianism.
Imagine the tombs of the prophets of the Old Testament being destroyed by the golden Jesus in his millennial reign, or are we in the battle of Armageddon?
Looked at from the purely military standpoint, there is no question whatsoever that the US can blockade the strait of Hormuz. It would be a distant blockade, so it would require more forces, but in view of our air surveillance capability, quite doable. There is no way we would do a close blockade of the ports themselves. It could be done, but it would require committing to real fighting and a willingness to accept potential losses, which is not politically feasible. The problem is, what orders do the political authorities issue to the military? Who gets stopped and who doesn't, and who sorts out which category any particular ship falls into? If they refuse to stop, do we shoot? I doubt we would really want to sink a ship to enforce the blockade. So in the end, I imagine this will be mostly performative. They'll pick out some victim ship that no one cares about and either turn it back or capture it and claim that it's the battle of Midway all over again. In the meantime, accommodations will be reached via backchannel for the more significant people.
Well, naval blockade is an act of war as well and US is always counting that they would get away with their acts of war, whereas others would not resort to them.
USrael were sinking ships non stop, that is one of their PR points - "Iranian navy is gone".
And Trump just "truthed" about "the second Iranian Navy".
The Iranian Navy was never a "blue water" navy.
The 5 small submarines armed with supersonic torpedoes (yeah, I know, supersonic underwater -- hard to believe) will have no problem protecting the Iranian coast.
Iran could pack a tanker/ship with missiles and drones and wait until it is taken by a taskforce and then release its armaments when its close enough to overwhelm their defences . This tactic was used in WW2 with the "raiders" or if you want to go way back "the trojan horse" . If ships are getting sunk then submarine warfare comes into play and the global supply chain is gone .
There are only 16 USN ships in the area. They cannot cover enough territory to make a blockade effective. In addition the CSG has to stay in formation to protect the carrier.
Russians might have a say how Indonesians behave:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indonesia-Turns-to-Russia-for-Oil-as-Middle-East-Risks-Mount.html
Chinese are long term planners that are, obviously, aware of the issues with the Strait of Malacca:
https://www.chinacenter.net/2020/china-currehttps://www.google.com.hk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.chinacenter.net/2020/china_currents/19-3/a-relationship-on-a-pipeline-china-and-myanmar/&ved=2ahUKEwitubvNifGTAxUSDjQIHTxvIXwQFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2SMKGXLKEFHD7mE-C971HWnts/19-3/a-relationship-on-a-pipeline-china-and-myanmar/
"Trump claims ‘opening’ Strait of Hormuz as mediators push new US-Iran talks: What we know so far"
https://www.rt.com/news/638461-trump-iran-hormuz-peace-talks/
Maybe it was never closed properly. Imagine that. After all, "we cheat, we lie, we steal - City Upon a Hill" is an epitome of honesty.
Very basic. Killing, murdering; the losing logic of political Judaism
Killing, murdering, but winning in that way.
Nobody dares to really hit the USA.
"Never interrupt your opponent when he is in the process of making a mistake. ". The Americans are throwing away their economic, military, diplomatic and financial power of their own volition.
They keep making things worse for themselves.
Nobody NEEDS to really hit the USA.
This operation at scale appears to be a last ditch attempt to come out on top of the reset.
let the colossus on the feet of clay collapse on itself
13 US military bases completely destroyed? That's not a hit.
There are reports of sabotage in the CONUS. so far the MSM keeps saying they "dissidents" and dismisses them. But that Amazon warehouse burned down.
Maybe it wasn't IGRC resources. Maybe it was.
Actually, jews are indoctrinated from infancy in genocidal urges.
See purim and this:
1 Samuel 15:3: "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass."
The mass murder of children and women in Gaza is just the practical following of jewdaic dictums. All 400 jewish federations of North America (and all Holo-museums) "stay with Israel" and support the genocide of "amaleks" of all ages. -- "Major Holocaust museums stand in solidarity with Israel, with many issuing statements supporting Israel's right to defend itself."
United Nations (including UNICEF) have described the Gaza Strip as a "graveyard for children" due to the unprecedented number of children killed during the ongoing Israeli military offensive..."
Mazel Tov to jews on their successful and highly profitable shoah business of "reparations"
It feels most focus is on Iran vs USA. Not much about Israel who continues killing people. I don’t hear or see much condemnation from most countries. It’s running a bit out of the spot light. To some extent I agree with you. If the Israel issue is not sufficiently addressed, there will be no peace in the middle east and it will remain the aircraft carrier of the USA
the israel issue will not be addressed because nobody wants to touch it
Then there will be no peace, maybe temporarily, but not on the longer term. Not sure why most countries don’t want to touch, maybe they are afraid they are the next Maduro, Orange man will impose tariffs, maybe they even are occupied countries, either via US bases or “Chevron” (big USA corporations).
Postol does: It’s Over” – Israel Faces Total Collapse If This War Continues
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AizjSdHvjt8
Furthermore, if Turkey was “provoked”, Egypt finally had enough, Jordan rebelled and Iraq became (even more) restless….oh and Syria came to it’s senses…. Yeah no, israel would get stomped good and hard. Perhaps overdue.
Forcing the USA to abandon West Asia, which appears more likely every day (there is a substack article somewhere that outlines the US retreat to Hegseth's "Greater America region". Couldn't find it.
I found this one instead. It describes "system A" (e.g. the US) vs "system B" (e.g. china) and declares "B" the winner. Must read.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-193900123
Thank you, interesting read!
I found the article. Richard Medhurst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI
Did you read all of the 5 parts? Warwick Powell is one who kind of parallels what ChinArb is proposing. Powell applies thermodynamics to the use of energy in the economy. Especially the second law of entropy which can't be stopped.
I watched the video a couple of days back. Interesting point of view. I only read the first article sofar. Time is limited:-(
Had! to order super imperialsm by Hudson and John Darwin After Tamerlane (subscribed to Jeff Rich, Powel restacked one of his articles. It’s a small world 😀)
Notice how Iran said there will be no negotiations without a ceasefire in Lebanon.
But there were negotiations. Was there are a ceasefire in Lebanon? There wasn't. Hezbollah was abanonded, and the IDF was allowed to throw everything at it.
Which is already having consequences -- today we had pictures of IDF soliders posing at the Hezbollah memorial in the center of Bing Jbeil, i.e. the city has been taken, and the situation is not developing positively at all.
Then Trump announced a blockade, i.e. effectively declared war officially. Is anyone shooting at the American ships from the Iranian coast? No.
So has there indeed been a coup in Iran with the Delcys having taken over? Sure smells like it...
Iran did the same to Syria before, together with Russia.
Taking a selfie in a pile of rubble in South Lebanon is the easy bit. Those soldiers will be constantly attacked. Some will die and many will have life changing injuries. Eventually they will leave as happened before. Having achieved nothing.
Why do you always insist on Kinetic action?
Hezbollah is winning. The World War Monitor has an excellent video on this but as I've admitted I question its goals.
When Iran sent its people to Pakistan, Trump had told them Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. Of course, they didn't expect it to last. But it's good PR to keep China, Russia and the global south on your side so you can "catapult the propaganda"
Why shoot at US Navy ships that are accomplishing nothing? A couple of ships attempted to go through the Strait. The IGRC said turn around in 30 minutes or we will destroy you. IIRC the countdown went to the 1 minute mark when the US Navy ran away.
>Why do you always insist on Kinetic action?
Because it is the only thing that matters
>Why shoot at US Navy ships that are accomplishing nothing
Perhaps because one of those ships killed 168 little girls and no justice has been served for that? And If no justive is served for that, they will do it again, because why not? So you owe it to the next 168 little girls to make sure nobody dares try that again.
Ah, you're an "eye for an eye" guy. Full of revenge, not a quest for Justice.
Do you want the specific ship that launched those two tomahawks to be destroyed, or will any of them do? If the latter, then if your neighbor across the street from you murders your wife, are you going to go to the house next door (not across the street) and murder the husband?
Justice requires a trial. Maybe the commander of that vessel will be brought up on War Crimes. Maybe not.
For sure though, if Iran turns to revenge, it will fritter away the international public support that has so many who contribute here to rejoicing that the USA is losing.
Iran is winning. Some say it has already won. Postol among those. The USA is trying to provoke an action from Iran that will allow them to tell the world how evil Iran is. Just like Israel. Look at how long it took, decades, to expose it for the incarnate evil that it is.
>Do you want the specific ship that launched those two tomahawks to be destroyed, or will any of them do?
The Iranians know which ship did it, they specifically posted the names and portraits of the officers responsible. So yeah, sink it. And yeah, it is a major issue that it hasn't been done so far.
>If the latter, then if your neighbor across the street from you murders your wife, are you going to go to the house next door (not across the street) and murder the husband?
False analogy, it is not as if the other ships had nothing to do with the aggression on Iran and killed nobody.
>Justice requires a trial.
Which part of "Trump, Netanyahu and a bunch of Zionist billionaires are responsible for this, therefore they should all die" requites a trial?
"Which part of "Trump, Netanyahu and a bunch of Zionist billionaires are responsible for this, therefore they should all die" requires a trial?"
All of it. Every last second of it needs to be aired out in a Nuremberg format. Otherwise, it is just revenge.
Look up the synonyms for vengeance and revenge. Do you see "Justice" in there.
Look up "justice". Do you see what you are describing in there.
Viggo Mortensen, Clint Eastwood and Liam Neeson extract revenge, but the "revenge" that Seal Team 6 extracted on bin Laden makes me sick. They had him. He could have been brought to trial. But they murdered him.
That kind of stuff is what unfounded conspiracy theories are all about. It occurs to me that they had to murder him so he wouldn't reveal his interaction with the US "deep state". The evidence against him is circumstantial. He could have led us to more criminals
Just like when Lee Harvey Oswald was killed by Meyer Lansky lieutenant Jack Ruby (both from the Las Vegas Jewish Mob) and Ruby in turn was injected with a rare form of cancer to shut him up. And we still don't know who murdered JFK.
Do you know about the company that was suppose to have made the "device" that killed Charlie Kirk?
"Accurate Energetic Systems (AES) is a manufacturing plant located in McEwen, Tennessee, specializing in the production of explosives for military and commercial applications. The facility experienced a catastrophic explosion on October 10, 2025, resulting in 16 fatalities and several injuries."
Your "plan" just causes a feud that leads to nothing good. But then you watched too many Westerns as a little kid or something.
This is why Iran follows its own moral compass.
https://substack.com/@ambrusbela/note/c-243241065
"Xi Jinping: "Spain has positioned itself on the right side of history, it is a very reasonable country. China stands with Spain. We will work together for world peace and oppose the law of the jungle.""
Look into ChinArb's stack and his 5 part series on the change in world order. The Thugs are going to be removed.
Here’s another reason. Everyone is Amalek to them.
https://substack.com/@lijingjing/note/c-243739993
This is why Iran is doing the right thing.
https://substack.com/@globalgeopolitic/note/c-243834867
In Shia Islam, Jesus (Isa) is revered as a major prophet, the Messiah (Masih), and the "Word" and "Spirit" of Allah, born miraculously to Mary without a father. He is considered a sinless, human messenger of God who did not die on the cross but was raised to heaven, and he will return alongside Imam al-Mahdi to establish justice at the end of time.
FWIW: unless you use the /s, a large number of people won't get the sarcasm.
Your choice to continue to have to clarify your real meaning or not.
First send DJT & Co. home with their tails between their legs, then confront Zion aka Occupied Palestine. Once the bully has been humiliated, the sidekick will think twice about what's likely coming next to whom.
Like the maps
CONfidence Man Donald Trump fancies himself a marketing and PR genius.
But its based on the greater fool theory. "A sucker is born every minute in America" - P.T. Barnum & Bailey Circus.
Confidence tricks rely on diversion & triggering an emotional reaction about something while you're doing something completely different.
And they all eventually flop
The current price of oil due to the blockades might make Venezuela oil an attractive investment? And put a floor under the market for US gas fracking so that it can be profitable to keep poking more holes in the ground?Trump did explain it. When asked by the reporter who will control the straits he said; “maybe me and the ayatollah!” Production costs matter, the market matters. You don’t want to invest in a long term project and then have cheaper to produce hydrocarbons flood the market and undercut your financials. Globally we burn more every year. New discoveries need to be constantly happening, if they don’t our modern way of life evaporates and we go back 200 years. Which would be fine except for all the nuclear armed states and chaos that would ensue.
So DJT is now the reincarnation of Dick Cheney? That might be good for Halliburton, but not so good for the larger economy or the midterm elections.
with Trump offspring similarly engaged in politics. they surely like their multi-generational dynasties.
Baron was looking forward to a young life of hot tail.
Now he's looking into plastic surgery
eh...please explain?
no one associated with Trump can risk being seen in public (let alone get a date!)
LOL
Cheney was evil. Trump is a moron. Both get to the same place.
To be fair, Trump is also evil.
True, just he is stupider than Cheney.
The suggestion that civilization would revert 200 years if we decided to actually live within our means and foster our resources is fear-mongering garbage propaganda promoted by energy companies.
but those do have the leverage though.
By energy companies and the globull warming green weenie crowd... Chip
Ted Postol discusses several theories in this long discussion with Krapivnik on climate change.
I especially appreciated the "climate change" portion where he explained that the earth travels through different parts of the galaxy which might have much more dust; also Earth's orbit does not remain the same but it moves closer and then further away from the Sun; add to is sunspots and clouds. He pretty much has no patience for those whining about climate change. He demolishes the models that predict global warming because of CO2 because none of them take into account clouds. Then he provides historical evidence of sea level change.
Interview with Krapivnik. The Truth of Climate Science. I love the opening ad from "Moscow Connect". I might have to ask if there's anywhere in Russia where we can snorkel. (LOL)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HX3bNMIHtc
I thought it was this one, but I'll leave this here because Postol explains that Israel has lost. Nima on "Dialogue Works"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AizjSdHvjt8
Postol always backs up his stuff with facts.
I recall a time in the 90’s when the Environmental Movement was hijacked and used as a social engineering device. It was noticeable and followed previous patterns (GrassRoot >>> AstroTurf conversion). As per the usual, indoctrination and emotional response coupled with Consensus Science (tm) were (and continue to be) used to guide the masses through the appropriate gates. Fear, panic, extremist behavior and the enforced willingness to accept increasingly draconian measures in the name of Climate Crisis.
It’s helpful to have clarity around the language. “Ok, do you mean Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change? Or are we talking about the billion year cycles that predate our species?” “Carbon or CO2?”.
Sometimes if one can be bothered, questions can be asked such as: Given that climate has historically changed quite drastically over time, are you suggesting that domesticated primates arrest this process and instate a never changing climate? If there are to be changes, what are acceptable parameters. Yes I know, it’s terribly challenging and threatening to her indoctrinated and arguably a waste of energy. But it is worth having some widgets handle to dismantle any panicky non-arguments you may encounter…..
Yes, Al Gore and his inconvenient truth documentary. I do wish someone could research that and tell us how much BS it is.
Which reminds me of the instance of the English bricklayer who objected to the film as his daughter was shown it, he went to court and won the case against the film being spurious, inaccurate et al….
COOL! I had no idea.
"A British school governor, Stewart Dimmock, sued Al Gore over his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth," alleging it was inaccurate and biased. The High Court judge ruled that while the film was "substantially founded upon scientific research and fact," it contained nine errors and was too one-sided for classroom use without additional guidance."
Reminds me of the Michael Moore sponsored movie by Jeff Gibbs. "planet of the humans". What a piece of crap that was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Humans
copium express!
I was wondering about Venezuela when Dmiti Orlov set me straight. Venezuela is only able to produce 1M BPD of heavy crude. My "on the back of a napkin" calculations suggest that the US will still be short of heavy, sour crude up to the 30%. Good enough to convince me that airline tickets are going up in price and many fewer flight, diesel will rise considerably and New England won't have enough heating oil in December.
US crude is light, sweet. It is mostly naphtha which is difficult to get rid of unless you can blend it with distillates from the Venezuelan oil.
This article from Steven Newbury is quite enlightening:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190383417
be sure to read the comments, one of the best discussion on oil ever. Some argue that Newbury's predictions are too dire. Others agree.
I haven't read this one through, but the exec summary corresponds:
https://gyulatoth559216.substack.com/p/asias-naphtha-trap-from-feedstock
I second that….he does decent work.
FWIW, Venezuela only pumps about 1M bpd. It is all heavy, sour crude. You have to have this stuff to make jet fuel. You can't make jet fuel out of the wells in the US. All Oil is not fungible. There are many different types. At its all-time high Venezuela was only putting out 3M bpd. Yes, the reason Trump took Venezuela was to gain access to that crude, but it's still stuck in the ground. Speculation is months to years to increase production.
Maybe they'll hire it out to the Chinese and be up and running in a week or two.
A couple of articles.
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-naphtha-heart-attack-why-120
https://gyulatoth559216.substack.com/p/asias-naphtha-trap-from-feedstock
Anyone have any thoughts on Brian Berletic's & Richard Medhurst's argument that this is primarily an energy blockade against China? So the main objective is to prevent China from freely accessing the fossil fuel it needs without permission from (& commission to?) the US; the US accessing and utilising the oil itself is a secondary consideration.
The perspective that China is the ultimate enemy of the USA has been expounded on since Obama when he announced the "pivot to Asia".
Medhurst is compelling. There are other explanations of how this will all work. Crooke outlined that the US is being even more despicable in that the American Billionaires want to crash the world economies so that only the US remains a viable economy like it was at the end of WWII.
The absolutely most horrible suggestion was articulated by Krapivnik who summed up proposals by the WEF and other international forums. (Remember, "you will own nothing, and you will be happy"? How about the plan to feed you insects.)
Stan called it the "Golden Billion". The goal is to reduce the world's population to under 1B people. I keep posting this because people aren't considering it seriously. They do not understand the immorality and criminality of the "Epstein Class."
https://substack.com/home/post/p-193974188
All the friction with China created over Taiwan was to achieve this goal.
Berletic shows the number of US military bases that surround China. The US remained in Afghanistan as long as it did because it is on China's border.
The claims of Uyghur Genocide in Xinjiang were because the NED financed the ETIM terrorists who indiscriminately were murdering civilians, government officials and engineers. China to action to kick the ETIM out and was successful.
There have been several attempts at "color revolutions" in the "stans". Imran Khan was removed from power in Pakistan and is still in prison. Bangladesh had a color revolution. It is near the Chinese oil pipeline that runs through Myanmar to avoid the strait of Malacca.
Even the Ukraine war was set up to defeat China. Yes the criminal neocons had plans to break up Russia and steal its resourced, but the ultimate prize here was to deny those resources to China. You may have heard rumors, which are now not being heard so often, that Biden and Trump wanted to become friends with, Russia, doing to get them to disavow China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_foreign_policy_of_the_Obama_administration
Soon it won't matter when the shortages hit, and oil is 150 a barrel regardless of what futures say they are. Then no amount of jawboning will ease the market.
The price of really delivered is already up to 150 $/barrel.
Ironcally, the oil price is measured through futures, which of 99% will not be delivered, but "rolled" on new bets.
When virtual finally meets actual, the Unlovely Truth Band strikes up the chorus with renewed vigor!
We got a month, maybe two, before reserves are diminished and futures contracts shenanigans won't work.
‘AP confirmed that not a single US warship was in the Persian Gulf’
And there is an excellent reason for that, it is called geography. The US is reluctant to carry the war into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz as Iran is there to hit back from land. Therefore, they try to export the war far enough to the Southeast where Iran cannot be a party. In other words we are looking at two theaters of conflicts existing parallel, stopping or sinking boats, collecting tariffs but not fighting with each other. If Irannian boats are stopped and ripped off by the US Navy all Iran has to do is to increase the tariffs to the point where losses are replaced and add some for profit on top. Iran’s advantage is that it has to police the Strait at a narrow area only from land while the US has to spread out forces in an area many hundreds of miles wide.
It's more problematic than that. The US wants to interdict ships carrying Iranian oil from Iranian ports. These would be ships bound for India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore etc, and often owned by entities in the consuming nations - no matter what flag of convenience the ships are flying.
it's more problematic than THAT:
the US is conducting these operations about 5000 miles or more from home.
that is VERY expensive and unsustainable in the long run
which has never prevented the US military from wasting resources in the past, of course
"5000 miles or more from home."
I'm worried that our brave sailors won't get "shore leave" where they
can get a couple of cold brewskis and a piece of discounted ass...
There is no Pattaya nearby and the R&R days of the American War against Vietnam. Or...historic fun stop, Subic Bay, PH. Supply lines be a bitch.
Why are they brave? They volunteered for this shit.
Nicholas..
You're a bit literal minded...
/s (fixed it for you)
If they didn't volunteer then the military industrial complex wouldn't have the man power to run around the world destabilizing. More importantly, without the reserve currency, there would be no way to fund the never ending wars. This failed war will be the nail in the coffin for the dollar. Once this is over, the dollar crashes.
So let’s just run the entire nation in to the ground in pursuit of goals that benefit the very (terrible) few….
Absolutely!
All-RIGHT, Let’s GOOOoooooooooo!
Supplying ships...
It's important to know that a single aircraft carrier consumes 17,000 meals a day, requiring resupply several times a month. And for 24-hour flight operations, at least two tankers are needed.
How many ships/crews belong to a single task force? They all need food.
When this conflict extend to months possibly we will get again reports of clogged toilets and burnning laundries...
And fresh water.
True. "In 2022, the U.S. Navy aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Abraham Lincoln experienced significant potable water contamination due to maintenance failures and aging infrastructure. The Nimitz was contaminated with JP-5 jet fuel, sickening 11 sailors, while the Lincoln suffered from E. coli bacteria contamination, both causing foul water odor and taste, leading to extensive flushing and repair efforts."
See reply comment to Victor above... Chip
Carriers have reverse osmosis water plants to provide potable water for extended missions at sea... Chip
Apparently, the Lincoln and the Nimitz failed the muster.
Nice bit of detail there Jurgen, 17k meals per day, plus as Victor mentions above the "Water". This imo lends a big chunk of credibility to a comment on MoA that there wasn't any Laundy fire on the Ford, it most likely got hit. Why else would the AC H.W. Bush choose to sail via the Cape of Good Hope when it could just hop across the Pond to the Straits of Gibraltar ? Because they're very worried it might just happen again. To paraphrase Wilde's observation in "The Importance of being Ernest" to lose one Carrier may be accidental, to lose two is absolutely Careless. No doubt they trust that there are enough friendly African allies to facilitate the necessary resupply. However, given the number of folk they've pi$$Ed off, that might be a moot point.
"Wilde's observation in "The Importance of being Ernest"
Enjoy bonus points Simon for bringing Oscar Wilde into the conversation.
A character who came from the future...
Thanks for the Wilde. Maybe the funniest man since Sir John Falstaff
"...an army marches on its stomach"
Napoleon
Then there is the matter of the RotW looking to make deals with Iran re: safe passage. At a certain point the USA will become “the one who is blockading” causing other nations to “make moves”. Hold most of the planet hostage and choking their energy supply is not a greta look and maybe its also the goal…
Over 10,000. One CV, 10 destroyers, a couple of subs, support ships, maybe a frigate and to get too close to Iran or the Houthi you better bring a couple of cruisers.
"The US is reluctant to carry the war into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz as Iran is there to hit back from land."
Exactly.
when you know that your enemy is capable of striking you from the walls of his citadel, you don't parade your troops up and down under those walls.
Simp thinks this is a pathetic strategy, that it shows how weak a country is to not line their ships up nice and tidy for the enemies missiles. This is called "stupid" to Simp who is a 4 Star Arm Chair General with a terminal case of TDS.
Nailed it!
It's a useless and illegal strategy because many of the ships Trump believes he should pirate if they paid the toll are headed to our allies. Not that difficult to figure out.
And the majority of the ships that don't need to pay the toll are headed to ... China
As to the land basis. Daniel Davis (Deep Dive) and Col MacGregor discussed the Dardanelles Campaign, WW I. The greatest naval force at the time, the Royal Navy, was unable to get past the land-based Ottoman defences. Having said that, it WAS touch and go in the end, if you study the campaign.
The point is, as naval commanders know, ships are vulnerable to land if the land defences are strong.
There was a single alcoholic gambler behind that immense tragedy, Chruchill. Here is my book about it, free reading or .pdf download:
https://books.brightlearn.ai/The-Lions-Twilight-Churchill-and-the-Unraveling-of-b9cb226a8-En/index.html
Thanks. Bed-time reading.
Interesting stuff you have there. Thanks for providing the link. Bookmarked for more thorough reading later.
Thank you for the generous share of your scholarship.
That campaign was a feint, and a poorly executed one at that. Sending some colonial soldiers into hell never phased the Admiralty. Perfidious bastards.
You will find, when you check it up, that more British soldiers died than the fabled ANZACs. 34k British; 9k Australian; 3k NZ (approx figures)
Further, as an idea to open up a new front, initially, it was good. ie bogged down due to trenches. But, the thinking was let down by the fact that Russia did not take part in ground support. There were many other variables which this article does not take into account. However, the main point is, the Colonials were not the main attacking force and neither the main casualties: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallipoli_campaign
That may be true but it doesn't change the fact that the colonials were landed in a position with little land for staging and cliffs preventing any advance. You seem knowledgeable, just how many Europeans were in their number?
According to wiki, 345k British, Irish, Indians; 79k French; 50k Australians; 15k NZ. If you want a good write up, try this article: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/blood-in-the-water-blood-on-the-beach
You are correct that there was not a proper beach to land. Also, like a lot of campaigns, it was not though through properly. Instead of going in with a full sea and land force, the navy was sent first and, when that failed, land forces followed.
Meanwhile, of course, Turkey was now ready.......
I missed that episode.
Yes. Iran has spent four decades preparing for this show-down. It's almost as if Iranian policy makers were reading western think-tank reports and studying US land-air-sea strategy to counter it asymmetrically.
Who knew?
Any US warship that was in the Gulf would be in very deep trouble. It could be instantly destroyed at Iranian pleasure, and could not leave the Gulf without Iranian permission.
It would be like the "escape of the Amethyst" https://www.naval-history.net/WXLG-Amethyst1949.htm
What a horror story!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amethyst_incident
"US warship ... could be instantly destroyed at Iranian pleasure"
Well ... not quite. A NImitz-class carrier would be extremely difficult to "destroy". These ships are monsters, more than 330 metres long, and very heavily armoured. One of these beasts could certainly absorb a couple of direct hits from shore-to-ship missiles, though that might disable aircraft operations from the flight deck for several hours (the ships carry equipment and material to repair damage to the flight deck) and would cause casualties.
Forget the images of the Atlantic Conveyor being sunk in the Falklands war by just two hits of Exocet missiles. That ship was a commercial vessel, not a warship, with no armour and no defences.
Some Iranian missiles deliver 1-ton warheads. An even more important consideration is the terminal velocity. China is known to have developed large, powerful missiles specifically designed to sink US aircraft carriers, and I think we can trust the designers of those missiles to have done their sums.
Regardless of armour plate, it seems obvious that carriers are very vulnerable. The 1967 fire on USS Forrestal came close to destroying her altogether. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_USS_Forrestal_fire - and that was caused by the accidental firing of a single small rocket.
The recent fire on USS “Gerald R. Ford” is acknowledged to have caused serious damage and taken 30 hours to put out. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/uss-ford-fire-iran-venezuela.html That, too, was supposedly caused by accident, although the ship had come under Iranian fire.
Tom,
Hypersonic missiles will do massive damage if they hit from both the explosion and the kinetic impact . A inert penetrator hitting the deck in a vertical strike has the potential to go right through. Something like Russias Oreshnik would be probably fatal if it could be targeted accurately.
The same is true of Kinzhals and Zircons. The only question is whether Iran has caught up with Russia and China in the specific department of sinking carriers. I would not care to bet they haven’t, since attack by carriers has been predictable ever since 1979.
And striking down your enemy by hitting what he took to be his greatest strength is very Sun Tzu.
The density of material and human resources on a carrier are simply overwhelming.
Tom,
The Gerald Ford incident suggests its already been hit . The behavior of the rest of the fleet also backs up that scenario .
‘China is known to have developed large, powerful missiles specifically designed to sink US aircraft carriers, and I think we can trust the designers of those missiles to have done their sums.’
I did read they built lifesize replicas of the deck layout of carriers in the desert and kept practicing on them with missiles until they did get it right. Scary people :))
Chinese children learn Chinese alphabet - this alone improves their attentional control, discipline, and memory.
"In 2024, China's IP office received 1.8 million patent applications, which is over three times the number submitted to the United States."
"Approximately 93% of the 1,279 "super-mobile" inventors (those moving between the US and China) are estimated to be ethnic Chinese. Nearly 40% of foreign-born US inventors originating from China and India."
"Increasingly, top talent is returning to China, and researchers from China are making significant breakthroughs in AI and, in some cases, bypassing U.S. technology restrictions to create, for example, their own, faster chips."
It is either or. Either they are ‘Scary people’ or we allowed us to be immunized silly. When you go back to the first half of the 19th century, America, you see very high literary rates in the northeast and an extreme high flow of constant new inventions. We were the scary people.
No more scary than those who built the aircraft carriers!
Whilst sinking a carrier is the headline option, destroying the catapults turns it into a very expensive and overmanned freighter.
A lifesize deck replica is the ideal thing for training warhead aiming on.
Just nock the conning tower OFF….
Adequate and elegant economy of effort.
How fuggin hard can it be?! Just cause expenditure and then employ the Coup de Grace!!
HMS “Sheffield” was also sunk, by an Exocet whose warhead failed to detonate. Most modern warships are protected lightly or not at all.
I must admit that when I wrote my original comment I had no notion whatever that an aircraft carrier would be sent into the Gulf. I was thinking of frigates and destroyers, which have virtually no armour.
To send a carrier into the lion’s mouth would be politically impossible, never mind the tactical considerations. Once inside it could be hit scores of times by missiles with heavy warheads and high terminal velocities. It could even be hit by tube artillery. And it could be torpedoed. One lesson of WW2 was that no matter how heavily armoured a ship might be above the waterline, below the water it was usually unprotected.
BUT, and it is a big BUT, it would be foolish to sink a carrier in the strait. Navigation would be seriously affected for a considerable time... Chip
Navigation would be affected, of course. But perhaps not very seriously. The strait is over 20 miles wide at its narrowest, and separate lanes are designated for incoming and outgoing ships. Each lane is 2 miles wide, with a 2-mile separation between them.
A Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is about 1,100 feet long and 250 feet wide. Even if it sank lengthwise across the channel, it could block only about a tenth of it. If, as is more likely, it retained its orientation while sinking, it would block only one fortieth of the channel. Its position could be marked by buoys and lights, and it would hardly obstruct the passage of even the largest tankers and container ships.
Although its situation at the bottom of the sea would definitely concentrate the minds of captains, owners, and governments.
In any case there would be no need to sink it in the Straits. It could be allowed into the Gulf proper, which would also reduce the risk of it turning around and escaping, as the two US destroyers did the other day.
I doubt anyone seriously considers sinking to be a good option. It’s messy, it’s toxic and the evidence of failure is beneath the waves. Wound the beast and it continues to suck resources.
How many drones would it take to takeout the flight deck or the elevators rendering the ship useless.
My understanding is the "laundry fire" on the Ford was because of a swarm of Iranian drones. It will not be repaired for at least a year and possibly 2.
Pretty much what's the difference, I'd call it "destroyed", although not "sunk"
Actually, the larger a ship the more a reasonable thickness of armour will weigh in aggregate. That’s why HMS “Hood”, the doomed forerunner of today’s aircraft carriers, was blown up within 5 minutes of entering combat against German warships. “Hood” was 860 feet long and 104 feet wide, and displaced less than half as much as the US carriers. Even so, it was impossible to give her enough armour to avoid destruction without sacrificing the speed that was supposed to be the battlecruiser’s greatest strength. Precisely because she was the world’s biggest warship at the time, her deck armour was only 3 inches thick. It is even possible (though unlikely) that she was destroyed as a result of explosions set off by an 8-inch shell from the German heavy cruiser “Prinz Eugen” - the very type of ship that battlecruisers had been invented to defeat!
The problem is much worse with the American carriers, which have a far larger area of hull to protect. Even with their nuclear power plants, the high speed that is required for their role limits the weight of armour that could be carried.
Drachinifel has a pretty comprehensive Youtube on how the Hood was sunk.
TLDR, her own speed + a turn killed her. The trough behind her bow wave + the heel of her turn allowed a Bismark shell to deflect off the water, UNDER her armor belt into a secondary armament magazine adjacent her rear main magazine, the detonation of the former blew up the latter.
Maybe. I have seen many other explanations. That is certainly ingenious.
But the fact remains that because “Hood” was so lightly armoured, even “Prinz Eugen”’s 8” shells could have penetrated.
At the Battle of the Falkland Islands in 1914, the very first time Fisher’s battlecruisers engaged in combat, “Invincible” came within a few feet of destruction. An 8” shell from one of Graf Spee’s armoured cruisers sliced right through her puny armour and was found nestled up against the wall of a main armament magazine. Had that shell penetrated, or even exploded where it came to rest, the battlecruiser concept would have been still-born. Destroyed by one of the very ships she was designed to defeat!
It might be worse in that the Amethyst had some Chinese help and was able to evacuate; I doubt they'll be Iranians willing to help. The US will have to perform another "heroic rescue mission."
If Orange sent 2 C-130s for a single pilot(???? it just sounds surrealistic) how far is he willing to go for the USS Lincoln?
FWIW: many pundits explain that the rescue mission was a cover for an attempt to take or do "something" with the uranium at Isfahan.
Johnson is all over the place tell us more and more details.
Oh yes. As a boy I read the book “Escape of the Amethyst” by C. E. Lucas Phillips, and was impressed both by the difficulty of the ship’s position and by the fact that the officers and crew managed to escape in the end. If the Chinese had disposed of weapons anything like those that Iran has today, the Amethyst would have had to surrender.
Maybe this time the mission would end with a pile of busted warships rather than aircraft.
Main thing is to keep the military industrial complex busy.
the art of using an atlas.
:)))
Not really. There are a limited number of ships that pass through the strait at a time. With radar and satellites the Navy knows where every one is. They aren't fast. The Navy ships are. 200 miles is less than 6 hours at 30 knots. I'd say its a draw in that either side can interdict what they want to. How far they will actually go in doing this is the question....
The only ships that get through the strait have IGRC permission. So, I'm not sure what you mean when you say "either side".
I'm unsure of this channel but this video says, the US Navy's 16 ships are useless.
Iran just did something Huge to OPEN the U.S BLOCKADE…IRGC shocks the world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIhgVn1d2Bs
FWIW: OPTM Show has some very interesting stuff, but it seems to verge on pro-Iranian propaganda like the "Silver Economy" and "World War Monitor". OTOH just because the MSM doesn't cover the story, doesn't mean it didn't happen.
EDIT: don't know where to put this so, here it is from No1:
"Hormuz blockade reality gap: CENTCOM vs. satellite data. CENTCOM claims zero breaches in first 24 hours. Maritime tracking firms Kpler and TankerTrackers identify multiple vessels that transited anyway, including a sanctioned VLCC supertanker entering Iran with AIS switched on. A US destroyer interdicted two tankers leaving Chabahar, but tanker "Quar" is crossing toward China. The gap between Pentagon claims and what satellite data shows is widening. Confidence: HIGH (5+ sources including CENTCOM, TankerTrackers, Reuters, Windward)"
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-15
The chief target of this naval blockade , besides Tehran, is China. I wonder if the US is stupid enough to try stop Chinese ships going to and from Iranian ports. If it does that will massively ramp up this conlflict.
You absolutely have a strong point there but something tells me if China decides to go for a first direct conflict with the US they will opt for the Taiwan area. I do not really know what is the full capacity of the Russian pipeline from Siberia but sooner or later the Russians will find a way to send enough oil there in case it is really needed. Is it possible they could load tankers in Vladivostok?
Wow, how did manage to feed the army, navy and air force for four years from the Atlantic to the Pacific. 🙄
I wager the Chinese or Russians arranged some way for America to save face. The Iranians understand this, and probably they are a bit surprised that they actually pulled off such a clear win.
Keep this in mind: Erdogan is talking tough, that probably means Erdogan sees the danger receding.
Haha, good point about Erdogan.
Donald may sell a five or twenty year stop of uran enrichment as a win.
Who's going to buy it (a 5 year stop of Iranian uranium enrichment as a "Trump win")except the most rabid MAGA?
I think speculation about the next few months up to the mid-terms have interesting theories, but few facts to back them up.
Trump was hired by the "Epstein Class" board of directors to achieve the objections they defined. They didn't tell him how to do it. (Miriam Adelson's $100M campaign donation I'm sure had a huge influence on the narcissist). I'm sure they discussed it with him. The "board" uses Netanyahu as a front to communicate their wishes. It isn't so much that Netanyahu is told what to say, but that he too has his "orders". Then Hegseth is an idiot. So...
Will the Billionaires even allow elections. We should all know by now that the vote is rigged. No matter who you vote for you get Jeffrey Epstein.
So a doomsday scenario that Krapivnik puts forward is here. The "board" wants to reduce Earth's population to under 1B. Sad to say that this outcome confirms what Trump is doing is in line with that goal.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-193974188
It's a very short read of the transcript of the YouTube video. Take you maybe 3-5 minutes. But it certainly sheds a different light on events. The "Epstein Class" has been telling us for decades that this was their plan. Remember how "you will own nothing and you will be happy?" How about the plan to eat bugs?
I keep posting this article, it gets restacked, but no comments. Is it because people just don't want to face the reality that the "board" is that evil? Yet, they believe the "Epstein Class" actually eats babies.
IMHO Turkey is a key player in the Middle East which is deliberately being ignored because nobody wants to talk about it.
The Russians played that role with respect to Syria, how did that story conclude in the end?
The signs are very ominous now.
Venezuela was finished when Trump announced a blockade, i.e. effectively officially declared war, parked the ships right in front of Caracas, and nobody was shooting at them.
Notice how Iran is doing the exact same thing now.
Also, Vance said today that it was great success that they got "the guy who actually runs Iran now" physically at the table with him. So who is that guy? The new ayatollah wasn't there, was he? Does he even exist at this point, or he was killed/maimed and there was a coup by the Zarif faction, but they are keeping up appearances to placate the internal situation and make sure they are able to sell the country out without a revolution stopping them?
"We cheat, we lie, we steal" said something. Go figure.
Yesterday, I listened to that Chinese professor at Glen Dissen's channel. He said that China was outsmarted by the USA, as the Chinese never thought of USA ships becoming pirate ships. So, he said, on short term USA is winner here as China would be forced to buy American LNG. So China would sacrifice Iran. Over Russia, we should not talk, Russia has sacrificed all its allies.
The USA is going to besiege Iran,m destroy all railway lines and bridges and all ports, and let the Iranian population slowly die. That is what the Chinese professor said, and that is the most logical considering how the Americans think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_DHMUdOVdo
The USA was just ruthless enough to win. Everything else we read here is just a propaganda.
Why would China buy American LNG when it can buy Russian? Russia has enough LNG.
Dude is not professor, he refers to himself as professor.
Destroy all the rail lines in a country size of Europe? those rail lines that were destroyed so far were fixed already, within couple of days.
How did USA win? lmao
You listen to "professor", but everything else is propaganda? lmao
He said that Russia cannot supply enough to China.
So what if he said that?
China is 85% self-sufficient anyway.
But I see you could fit into his new religion. Master said something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HB7zqP9QNo
LOL, poor Brian...
"China has accumulated up to 1.4 billion barrels of oil in strategic reserves, invested 25 years in renewable energy, and purchased 80% of cheap Iranian oil: how Beijing has prepared for decades for the crisis that is now shaking the world."
https://en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br/china-has-accumulated-up-to-14-billion-barrels-of-oil-in-strategic-reserves-invested-25-years-in-renewable-energy-and-purchased-80-of-cheap-mhbb01/
Turns out long-term planning works. Who knew? Successive UK governments certainly do not find even a few months’ foresight ambitious.
Alyosha, I recently read elsewhere that China has scaled up the Liquifacation of Coal, thus enabling to be fractionally distilled as is Oil. This is by no means a new thing, been around over Century afaik, but to do this at a massive scale is a game changer.
China wouldn't buy American LNG if Russia could meet its needs. Russia has obligations to Hungary for instance. Funny that now that Orban has been removed through a top-level EU conspiracy (American Oligarchy puppets) Ukraine has opened the gas pipeline from Russia again.
Gee, a "regime change" in a member of NATO. How weird is that?
The "board" (the "epstein class" that gives politicians the objective, while allowing the executive to decide what actions to take) wants war with Russia. Orban was in the way.
But it seems that Magyar is not going to be much different from Orban regarding oil and gas purchases.
I think the main win that VdL got is that she will, probably successfully, push for changes in voting system on foreign policy. To qualified majority only.
Here we go:
"🇪🇺 Ursula wants to quickly ensure the EU can wage wars and keep sanctions up now, as Orbán is out.
She suggests removing unanimity voting on foreign policy and moving it to “qualified majority voting.”
In that case, wars, sanctions, and all kinds of foreign policy questions can be decided by 15 out of 27 countries.
A small union of countries can’t block, e.g., wars then."
https://t.me/myLordBebo/113798
"When is the qualified majority reached?
A qualified majority is reached if two conditions are simultaneously met:
- at least 55% of member states vote in favour (15 out of 27)
- those member states represent at least 65% of the total EU population
This procedure is also known as the 'double-majority rule'"
https://t.me/myLordBebo/113799
That guy is a total EU puppy. As time goes on he will follow instructions to the letter, even send soldiers to Ukraine. He just needs some time to turn the ship. Two years down I can see a revolt against him similar to the 2006 event that opened the gate for the Orban takeover.
Russia could also have "issues" repairing Druzha infrastructure, damaged by Ukraine. ;)
Actually, I believe the damage to that pipeline was in Ukraine. It is suppose to be reopened by the end of April.
No1 (IIRC) said Russian exports of gas to Europe are up by 22%
Well, perhaps it just a transportation question. Russia announced to day 16April it has gas for sale.
Why would China but American LNG when it can buy Russian?
Russia supplies pipeline gas, but its LNG capacity is limited, that’s why China buys globally.
True, should have said gas in general. If China can get enough of pipeline gas then there is no need for LNG, which is more expensive anyway.
Now that the Chinese guy can’t go back and delete incorrect predictions he made in the past so that only correct predictions exist to confirm his prophetic abilities his predictive ability has degraded significantly. According to him a ground invasion of Iran was going to happen last weekend. That is an almost comical misread of the tactical challenges the US is facing in Iran, which make maintaining a ceasefire far more preferable.
He needs "prophetic abilities" for his new religion.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredictiveHistory/comments/1rud8vs/jiang_says_hes_starting_a_religion_would_you_join/
Cotra is impressed, might convert.
There is a lot of 'cope' on this thread.
Caspian ports are operating, it took one call from Putin to Netanyahu early on to stop Israeli efforts. Russia is resupplying bis this route and through Turkmenistan. The bridges on the rail route directly to China have been repaired. The new trade corridor via Pakistan is now operating. The land routes to Iran are in place.
Direct flights from Russia and China operate as normal.
At sea boats can sail in Iranian national waters through the Oman Gulf all the way to Pakistani waters. The US navy will be very reluctant to interfere with Chinese, Russian or Pakistani boats in these waters. China has already indicated it is 'considering' intervention if such a threat on it's boats is made. That threat will be enough to maintain safe passage, Trump may be mad but the US navy guys generally are not.
This is a very expensive nothing burger for PR purposes.
the ME/East Asian part of the Belt and Road Initiative/BRI's network coming to fruition.
You are breaking the hearts of "GM" and "Contra"
Teflon Cotra does not care. He is invincible.
True. Add the Chinese guided missile cruiser that arrived a couple of days ago. Add that Iran keeps tankers in its territorial waters until they have passed the point where the US Navy's piddling force of 16 ships can do anything about it. Finally the oil pipeline through Myanmar means a much quicker turn-around and no US Marine interdiction in the Malacca Strait.
If I was redundant sorry. ;-)
The Curious Case of Professor Jiang: How the Internet Manufactured a Geopolitical Oracle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTcL8-_uWcY
This one is even better.
Debunking the Fake Historian Taking Over the Internet: Professor Jiang's Predictive History
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSiS-8Msn1I
He's a "covert propagandist" who came from nowhere and spouts gibberish that sounds good to gullible minds.
It baffles me how some people manage to get amplified to achieve guru status on different platforms.
Like the Zionist Melanie Phillips on X after Elon Musk retweeted some of her videos. She has nothing new or original to add to the debate. What do the Zionists have on Elon that they got him to promote her? Is she the replacement for an ailing Jordan Petersen, also a Zionist mouthpiece.
Perhaps the Zionists have "nothing" on Musk but Musk sees profit.
I’m surprised at what you wrote. I saw the video you mentioned with G Dissen twice and I’m surprised that you agree with Xueqin that the US is capable of putting boots on the ground and destroying Iran into a slow death (which has not done so far).
If you had been playing attention to how Iran was responding to the Israhellis and the US you would have noticed that Iran was very restrained in its responses. It targeted military or military-related targets. Even when the others targeted bridges and power plants. The Zionists were carpet bombing of course because that’s how they behave, by nature.
However, as soon as these hits started and Iran threatened to target power plants and infrastructure in the region and in the Zionist settlement, the US conceded a two week ceasefire and wanted negotiations.
Let’s see: The US lost all its bases in the Middle East, lost many aircraft including an E-3 AWACS, many Patriot, THAAD AD batteries and the bilion $ AN/TPY-2 radar and had a failed attempt to retrieve the “nuclear dust”.
And had to beg for negotiations because Hormuz is closed and controlled by Iran.
If you call this winning by the US, what can I say
What the Professor basically said was:
- US is going to destroy all bridges and railway junctions
- US is going to destroy all ports
- US is going to besiege Iran and wait until the population or Iran is destroyed by hunger
that is what he said. I think that is what the USA/Israel is going to do. That is something they can do and they would really love to de. They do not need boots on the ground for that.
I suppose they shall destroy all power stations also.
He also noted that China made a terrible error by not realizing that USA can resort to piratery. He said that China shall accept US dominance on the planned meeting in May.
HE also said, that on the long run, the world population will turn against US. But I do not think that is possible. We see that so called American dream is still the most desired (imaginary) way of life for all nations. There must be some kind of erotic attraction between the plain Homo Sapiens and US ideology. Maybe that desire to "kill kill kill , bomb bomb bomb" that is some manifestation of death cult that made US so attractive.
The solid thing we know is that Iran has proven to be extremely lethal and their mountain fortresses are robust. Infinity resupply across a vast land borders. What we see now is plausibly explained as Iran maintaining its Baby Face image to the American Heel. Iranian s fight without ego, understand big dummy don needs to save face after that world-historical ass whooping
sorry but there is NO SOLID THING that you, or anybody else here, knows.
We all get our info from the internet. The internet is FULL OF BULLSHIT coming from all directions: you can believe whatever the hell you want to believe
That is why I find all these armchair strategists amusing... they believe anything and then present themselves as experts, start insulting people who disagree, and behave like teenagers
we don't know what Iran has or can do. We don't know what Damage israel has suffered. We don't know how many bullets, rockets, etc anybody has.
All we know is fucking nothing. so why act like we do?????
I wonder why you are here then, if no analysis can be done....why not go read a sports gambling blog?
Iran has more than 80 ayatollahs. The ayatollahs don't actually involve themselves in running the nation's day-to-day affairs.
The IRGC has complete control over the military and until the war ends will maintain such.
The IRGC wasn't at that table
Well, then THAT table is short-term meaningless.
The IRGC doesn't need to negotiate. It's job is martial in nature and was given a free-hand during the 12 Day War to prosecute military actions as necessary. As far as I know, parliament hasn't rescinded the responsibility.
Or, he believes Israel's threats that Türkiye is "Next!"
Here's one of those World War Monitor videos that you can 'maybe' trust:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbjStcAaq1w
I appreciate the confrontation between Türkiye and Israel ships and the attack on Israel gas fields in the Eastern Med.
I have to wonder what they are thinking…poking at Turkey?!
Simple- Israel intends to use the Americans to wreck or extract concessions from the stronger countries in the area now, while Israel can still count on unconditional unlimited US support.
The fatted calf begins to tire
The Golem is staggering
It wont be long now
My problem is I have a optimistic bias sometimes
The US blockade meme is little more than a distraction narrative to keep the media busy until the next strike force is in place to carry out the pentagram's next - doomed to failure - plan for a media 'victory'.
Where is this strike force suppose to attack? A lot of generals were fired because (reportedly) they refused to follow stupid orders. That does mean a lot of Evangelical Christians have moved up in rank.
But go to the MRFF site and see the campaign valiantly being pursued by Mikey Weinstein. There could be a "soldier revolt".
You might need a VPN to read RT, but Russia is taking the possibility seriously: https://www.rt.com/news/638447-us-israel-iran-pentagon/
“we cannot have anyone - especially Iran - blockading the strategic Straits - so we will do it too” Is this rational policy or just soon to be reversed off the cuff decisions? I would really like to know what is the strategic aspect of any of this…. I will wait
Rational strategy. Cutting off oil supplies to China. Remember Iran did not block it.
"Rational," good one 😅
The Chinese Rich Starry tanker was originally reported as having passed the Straits. It now appears to have turned back due to US blockade. The Chinese navy are sending escorts.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30968
" 'The US and Israel may use peace talks to prepare for a ground operation against Iran. The Pentagon continues to build up a troop grouping in the region, - Russian Security Council
Currently, more than 50,000 American military personnel are already concentrated in the Middle East.'
But again: where would they land when US’s toughest ships are terrified of going within range of Iran’s missiles, which are swiftly being recouped as we speak?" I have no source of information beyond what I read on the news and no military experience, but just pointing out that a ground operation against Iran may not necessarily mean a ground operation within Iran. They could be planning to send folks into Gulf countries (or any country close enough that would let them) who would carry out operations *from* there.
Any fixed ground target is likely to get hammered - the US bases are empty.
Also, what would a mere 50k troops do in such a massive country? Especially since supply lines in such terrain against a foe with endless drones could not be guaranteed. Hopefully one of those 50k is a good writer so we can get "The Anabasis 2.0: A March Slightly Southeast."
50K military personnel doesn't mean 50k fighters.
Thank you for raising that very important point.... Larry Johnson loves to throw that figure around and it doesn't mean shit
There might be 5-8000 real fighters in the area, most of them still on ships.
May be a lot of Supersoldiers in the area, but they need to be very careful where they go and how they get there... resupply will be a interesting job, too.
You have put more reasoned thought into this than anyone at the pentagon
They can come from Saudi Arabia/Azerbaijan direction. No ships. Straight into the oil rich region. Professor Robert Pape has war gamed this for 30 years. Well worth looking at his writings and videos.
The obvious path usually turns out to be the actual path. This would be from Saudi Arabia into Kuwait, as in 1991, but this time continuing into Iran.
There is a huge mountain range between Azer and Iran. How could a ground force traverse that undetected? Answer; they can't and won't.
And Saudi and Iran don't share a border.
You need to consult a map.
I can't see how 50,000 troops can conquer Iran.
I can't see how the US can do a Desert Storm 2.0 under Iranian missile attack.
I can't imagine the USN boarding Russian, Chinese or even European and Japanese tankers.
The logistics of an invasion through Azerbaijan make that a non starter.
Agree with all points.
And another item the US military fanboys are missing is that they won't just be facing Iranian military; every Iranian from teenagers to elderly will fight them.
The Jews can't do it even with millions of grunts.
WRT Russian tankers, it is my understanding that Wagner PMC forces are deployed on the ships. Any marine trying to repel from a helicopter won't make it to the deck alive.
"I can't imagine the USN boarding Russian, Chinese or even European and Japanese tankers."
I wish I could be so sure in my own skeptical and concerned consciousness. But the folks in D.C... I couldn't have imagined a lot of the stuff they've already done.
I passed on American info. Should've consulted a map. My bad.
Where they will face a mass casualty event, before eventually having to retreat.
Well, if they use traditional WWII tactics (there are several articles around the web saying the US is stuck in WWII) the troops will mass, the Russian and Satellite ISR will provide targeting data. Swarms of drones and several multi-warhead missiles will kill them before they cross any border.
Russia was using 6's and 3's to advance in Ukraine. The traditional US military shock and awe is obsolete. FPV drones will find any group that's more than 6 and they will be immediately targeted.
So has Wilkerson.
If you don't know about the Millennium Challenge, the "blue" team was defeated by the "red" team in 48 hours. IOW "they knew" what the result of this attack on Iran was going to be. They just refused to believe it. The Israel Lobby told them it wasn't true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Azerbaijan.
That's part of what the Zangezur corridor is all about.
The Kurds were asked to join, but they declined.
This is actually quite clever in a weird way. The ceasefire means Iran can’t shoot at the ships getting closer to Iran by the day.
When the Americans and Israelis feel everything is in place … boom!
The Iranians have never had more leverage or backing than they do now. Clever, indeed.
Iran will prepare for that situation too. I don’t think they are just sitting and drinking tea.
Indeed. And Empire casualties will rise to a point where they can no longer be hidden.
No matter what Trump does... The Israeli-American attack on Iran has accelerated an irreversible process. In the Strait of Hormuz, the death knell of the petrodollar is being sounded: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-israeli-american-attack-on-iran
bla bla bla
you need to find another subject to harp about
nobody gives a fuck about the petrodollar any more
certainly not the arabs
I give fux bcs as the petro dollar goes down, fast or slowly, prices for commodities, ie real stuff, goes up. Eg food, everywhere. That's got my attention.
the petrodollar is dead, the saudis killed it a couple years back
the petrodollar is based on an agreement that the saudis would sell their oil only in dollars... that is HISTORY and has been for a couple years at LEAST
Yes, ok. Seems it's also become shorthand for countries opting out of paying in USD. What's the best verbiage?
You obviously haven't seen the petro sales volumes for the gulf countries. What options do they have now their revenues have dried up? No good ones that's for sure.
‘The USS Lincoln was reportedly spotted now only 200-300km away from Iranian shores near Chabahar port in the Sea of Oman’
That is way to close to Iran. Don’t be surprised if every single toilet clogs up and the main laundry room goes up in fire as a result of electrical shortage.
It is rather difficult to guess what the US intentions are here. One thing is sure, the idea most likely came from Trump to send the boat there but at the very least he had to sign off on this. The Lincoln is one of the largest moving targets the US Navy can offer. The US intention can be to bait the Iranians to hunt for the Lincoln and if they get lucky hit them with nukes as an answer. The problem is that the exact Iranian missile capabilities are likely not fully known. The water temp at Oman is around 25C now, but it is still unlikely that the men on the Lincoln are interested to get into that water. Computer simulations state that 6 to 8 ballistic missiles have the potential to sink a major carrier. I am guessing a lot of nervous seaman on that large thing there right now. If two or three missiles hit the Lincoln becomes a stationery target and will be lost.
As the armistice is still working, possibly the US Navy dared to come closer. Even trying to provoke something during negotiations.
I am confident that the men on deck know approximately what the chances are to get hit there and they are greatly unhappy to be used like this. If the Lincoln gets hit with a few missiles Trump will immediately send in everything around and very possibly use nukes to suppress fire from land.
Nuke fanboy
Your Mamma.
Postol says "no nukes" from the US.
Everybody is talking about ‘red lines’ and in reality they don’t really know where exactly those are. Nuclear nations and their nukes and confrontations keep multiplying, increasing the probability of nuke use constantly. Nukes and the smart butts around the Manhattan Project should have been nipped in the bud at the early stage as it was clearly insanity what they were doing.
A provocation may lead to an immediate reaction of Iran. The sailors could be the sacrificial lambs and I think they are aware of that. As Kennewick Man says, it may lead to sabotaging the ship
keep fantasizing
you are one of the biggest fanboys for Nuclear Armageddon
just can't wait for nuclear war
Please recall that it was already established: You are the one who consumes magic mushrooms here. I have zero desire to watch a nuclear war as I fully understand the consequences. I am simply guessing the possible outcomes from the minds of unstable homicidal maniacs with a single goal in mind: Kill and destroy.
bullshit, you are just hoping for nukes to fly so you can say, "I told you so."
fucking sick
Retarded gangstalker.
He has nothing of interest to add. Just pushing ppls buttons for fun, or some LOLs on the troll farm. They are obviously having trouble keeping staff.
fuck off... you kiddies all fantasize about nuclear war.
it's been gamed out... nobody wins a nuclear exchange.. some lose worse than others...it's a dead deal and all the nuclear powers know this
Whaaaaaa, I want my mommie... Chip
but she doesn't want you, pussy
and I can't say I blame her, you whining little PoS
CHIP
“Fanboy” is unnecessarily derogatory. I don’t believe anyone trying to imagine HOW Trump is going to snatch victory from humiliation would fail to consider nuclear weapons.
‘“Fanboy” is unnecessarily derogatory.’
He is ugly and his Mammy is dressing him funny.
it was appropriate.
Kennewik Man is stuck in teenage mode: Oooh.. nuclear war is so kool.
All the serious players know better and understand that conventional weaponry will decide, and resorting to nukes will only be done if one is attacked with nukes first... which is why the sea-based deterrent decides. Nobody can say for sure where the enemy has his city-killers hidden, until it is too late.
Nobody wins a nuke exchange. Nobody
>That is way to close to Iran. Don’t be surprised if every single toilet clogs up and the main laundry room goes up in fire as a result of electrical shortage.
Nobody is shooting at them.
Which is a very, very bad sign.
Why is nobody shooting at them? Ceasefire you say? But declaring a blockade is declaring war, because a blockade is an act of war. You start taking out the ships immediately once that is done.
Also, has there been any meaningful revenge for the events of February 28 and June 12? No. Just for the 168 schoolgirls at least one ship should have gone down with all the crew. But that hasn't happened. Worse, the IRGC people whose children those schoolgirls were are still there, why are they not launching missiles? It's precisely those units who were stationed around Minab.
There hasn't been a single prominent Israeli or US figure taken out either. Iran has the resources to get anyone anywhere, and if this was Khomeini, US politicians would be taking losses on US soil by now. It's fairly trivial to arrange. But nothing of the sort is happening.
There is the hypothesis that a silent coup did in fact happen. Less obvious so far than the Delcy Rodriguez one in Venezuela, but it would have to be less obvious because there would likely be an immediate revolutionary reaction to it, unlike in Venezuela. Iran is much more of a real country. And I see nothing in what is happening that contradicts that hypothesis, quite the opposite, it explains the situation best. Trump sure throws these phrases around about "new leadership" that he can work with, etc. Maybe it is not just random words...
Most probably that is true.
"You start taking out the ships immediately once that is done."
It's amazing that all the generals and politicians who are currently tasked with defending Iran with all the most up to date information about everything available to them haven't grasped such simple truths obvious to a man at a keyboard thousands of miles away with only the internet as his source of information.
Right? Generals thinking in these terms somehow don't get it:
"A strategist will be successful if he correctly evaluates the nature of a war, which depends on different economic, social, geographic, administrative
and technical factors."
So many smarty pants here with so much to say, could monetize it.
I think my sarcasm went over your head.
Lmao, likewise.
Indeed, touche!
Like I keep telling people, if you don't identify your post as sarcasm with a /s, you end up wasting everyone's time having to defend yourself.
It just isn't that hard to include the /s
Sorry, too accustomed to commenting on British blogs.
Iran is abiding by the cease fire.
You need to ask yourself why you don't believe in Judo.
There's nothing to be gained by violating the cease-fire.
Waiting is working "just fine".
But the other side is not, i.e. Iran is behaving as if it has surrendered
Yeah, the fact that the other side are lying, conniving, frauds is precisely the point. Iran wins because the Western MSM can't cover up the fact that Israel and the US always lie.
Ritter was speculating that China put some pressure on Iran to go to Islamabad. "Everyone knew" what the outcome was going to be. But China (and Russia) are into appeasing Public Opinion.
You don't get labeled as the "good guy" if you don't live up to the standards you set for yourself.
Why you keep repeating this nonsense about Iran (and Russia) "act like they've surrendered, is just strange. "Why are you so gun-happy?"
Why do you miss the point about Judo?
Maybe watch a bit of Raymond Reddington and how he often appears to have "surrendered".
* Italy has torn up its defense treaty with Israel
* Turkey has met Israel in the East Med and turned them back
* there's a psychological battle over Cypress.
* Hezbollah are slaughtering the IDF.
>Ritter was speculating that China put some pressure on Iran to go to Islamabad.
China is playing the same role with respect to Iran that Russia did with respect to Syria a decade ago. Which does not bode well for Iran...
>Why do you miss the point about Judo?
We've been hearing about judo and judo masters for two decades now. How has the strategic situation changed in that time?
China/Iran is nothing like Russia/Syria.
Assad was never well liked by his subjects. Assad turned down help when he needed it the most. Syria was neck deep in US sponsored terrorists.
Iranians are super patriotic. The division of military effort between the IGRC and the Iranian army created a force of over 2M men that will oppose any invasion. The Mossad agents throwout Iran have mostly been exposed. The traitors who participated in the false-flag murders have been identified and executed. China and Russia are providing real-time intelligence to Iran exposing other Mossad agent.
The "strategic situation" has changed enormously.
* everyone hates Israel
* the EU is about to kick the US bases out of Europe.
* NATO is about to implode
* Russia is accomplishing its objectives in Ukraine
* S. Korea has recognized the perfidy of the US and I predict will make overtures to the North to reconcile. China will be happy to trade with Korea. Japan, maybe not so much.
* China has the largest industrial base in the world.
* China has passed the US in PPP.
*The BRICS have a higher combined GDP than the G7
You need to go to ChinArb's stack and read his 5-part paper.
In the meantime, stop with the ridiculous statements demanding revenge and how Russia and China are losing. It makes you look naive and silly.
IOW Grow Up
"I continue to maintain that Iran has taken far less damage than people think, and most of the damage they did take will likely be repaired within days, weeks, and months at the most for a few key things." I'm concerned about the human cost and the impact on infrastructure essential to life and survival (hospitals, doulas, medical doctors, nurses, epidemiologists, pharmaceuticals, water infrastructure, electric grid, maternity care, education infrastructure, homelessness resources, community or state safety net programs, security, legal and judicial infrastructure, etc.). I'm also very concerned about the impact on archaeology and historic sites. I know there are many religious sites across Iran, including sites sacred to the so-called Abrahamic faiths and to Zoroastrianism.
Imagine the tombs of the prophets of the Old Testament being destroyed by the golden Jesus in his millennial reign, or are we in the battle of Armageddon?
Alistair Crooke said the Iranians anticipated such attacks and cleared possible target sites from personnel and valuabes.
Looked at from the purely military standpoint, there is no question whatsoever that the US can blockade the strait of Hormuz. It would be a distant blockade, so it would require more forces, but in view of our air surveillance capability, quite doable. There is no way we would do a close blockade of the ports themselves. It could be done, but it would require committing to real fighting and a willingness to accept potential losses, which is not politically feasible. The problem is, what orders do the political authorities issue to the military? Who gets stopped and who doesn't, and who sorts out which category any particular ship falls into? If they refuse to stop, do we shoot? I doubt we would really want to sink a ship to enforce the blockade. So in the end, I imagine this will be mostly performative. They'll pick out some victim ship that no one cares about and either turn it back or capture it and claim that it's the battle of Midway all over again. In the meantime, accommodations will be reached via backchannel for the more significant people.
it is not NECESSARY to sink a ship to "enforce the blockade"
ship captains will surrender their vessels / permit boarding before they will allow their vessels to be sunk
sinking ships is a last resort and an act of piracy / war with potentially fatal consequences
what the fuck is wrong with you people??? Always fantasizing about extreme outcomes... no concept of a middle ground
Well, naval blockade is an act of war as well and US is always counting that they would get away with their acts of war, whereas others would not resort to them.
USrael were sinking ships non stop, that is one of their PR points - "Iranian navy is gone".
those were NAVAL vessels, not civilian ships
there is a HUGE FUCKING DIFFERENCE
Muh, muh
Himmlerhound sounds upset. His pet Zios are losing.
Yeh, attacking naval vessels in an unprovoked war of aggression ain't act of war.
Go figure.
Cranky, cranky
of course it's an act of war
only an idiot like you would think otherwise
fuck you and fuck zios
Muh, muh
And Trump just "truthed" about "the second Iranian Navy".
The Iranian Navy was never a "blue water" navy.
The 5 small submarines armed with supersonic torpedoes (yeah, I know, supersonic underwater -- hard to believe) will have no problem protecting the Iranian coast.
Aircraft carriers are Obsolete.
"Aircraft carriers are Obsolete."
and yet, there they are.... and until very recently, running combat missions as well.
It's all great to say they're obsolete, but when they're bombing your shit you better still get under cover
Lots of stuff that is obsolete will still be useful under certain conditions.
Northwoodsman,
Iran could pack a tanker/ship with missiles and drones and wait until it is taken by a taskforce and then release its armaments when its close enough to overwhelm their defences . This tactic was used in WW2 with the "raiders" or if you want to go way back "the trojan horse" . If ships are getting sunk then submarine warfare comes into play and the global supply chain is gone .
There are only 16 USN ships in the area. They cannot cover enough territory to make a blockade effective. In addition the CSG has to stay in formation to protect the carrier.