I do not believe China is sitting doing nothing. They have probably gamed this and see Iran winning the round by enduring against the 5 second attention spans of Zio maggots and their premature victory declarations. China has been stockpiling oil for a long time. The US has not.
They see Round 3, Round 4 etc in the future....each round, Iran gets more and more arms and support.
Iran and China, Russia do not play "quickies" like the Anglo Zio OnlyFans class. They see far ahead into the future, beyond successive US rent-a-presidents
And speaking of decapitation strikes, I am left wondering today what is happening in Iran. Besides decapitating their leadership and killing 108 little girls attending school, where is all the damage to Iran? All I hear from Western media is about how Iran is bombing the shit out of the little girl killers and the pedo empire, but almost nothing about the bombing of Iran. Wondering why that is - unless of course, the missiles aren't actually getting through - otherwise it seems to me that the US and israel would be shouting on the rooftops.
Anyone heard anything else? Perhaps the bombing of a wedding party? Or perhaps a pre-school nursery? Maybe a retiring nurse's leaving do. A hospital or two? I don't know - surely they have found some innocent soul to rip to pieces. They sure can't seem to find any military targets.
OTOH, I have heard sporadic reports of possible attacks on American ships. Is there anything to confirm that? If ships have not yet been attacked, why not?
4 ballistic missiles fired at American ACC Abrham Lincoln. ZOG sez all missed, which appears 2B the case. Meanwhile, 2 tankers hit and burning in the Hormuz Strait. Also some kibbutz in Izrahell got hammered, with 10+ colonists killed.
Iran says the missiles aimed at the Lincoln were successful (whatever that means).
My question is this, however: Where are the Russian and Chinese air defenses? Tehran seems to be subject to massive air strikes with israeli and American missiles seemingly hitting at will, and America claiming complete air superiority, according the zio sources - OTOH apparently Iran's Mig-29s are attacking American airbases across the region - how does 'air superiority' square with that?
Probably a lot of the Starlink terminals have been intercepted by the authorities, and their internet shut down, so it will be difficult to get imagery out to the waiting western media.
What the dunce actually said: "There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again'".
Well, the Ayatollah was 86 years old. It can be really tough to get people of that age to leave their homes. At the same time, why were several members of top Iranian leadership meeting together at a time when war was imminent? And how did Israeli spies know their location? Obviously, Mossad is really good at assassinations.
because they *don't get it*. Someone in Iran obviously does get it, and hence the mass underground military infrastructure that's keeping Iran in this, but it seems the higher ups were in many cases just not the kind of guys you need when you're up against such capable and vicious psychopaths as Iran finds itself. It's astounding after the Hezbollah decap and the earlier attacks on Iran.
Yes. Now the Deathmatch has started and one side did a KO. Iran waited like sitting ducks. They even gathered their teocratic leadership and possible IRGC commanders for Israel to wipe out. How about changing strategy in future Wars and always kill the leadership first? Something that has been haram to advocate regarding Ukraine…
Iran are either incompetent or cowards if they got trapped twice. US&Israel attacking first in the middle of negotiations and for the second time killing the leadership the first they do.
Their talk of biggest revenge is not credible. Thanks to Irans hesitation, Israel&US managed to destroy another dozen? precious launchers. What to do with 1000 missiles if you cant launch them?
Trumpf and Netanyahu will be hailed as heros and geniuses if they get away with this. Not a bright future for the World. No one will be safe from ”certain death”, negotiations or agreements are no guarantee.
And I dont like that Simplicius is insisting on that Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan wasnt bombed at all. Iran is getting destroyed.
If they do pull off a fierce and deadly counterattack now, I'll admit that striking preemptively wasn't an absolute necessity. If they now look for an off ramp I'll just say they were stupid not to attack first. Surely they can't let this assassination go unanswered.
Surely they can. they did it with Sulemani, they did it with their former President, they did it last time - they agreed to truce/ceasefire without crippling Israel when they had the possibility.
It was a rhetorical question. I know they could wimp out here. It would be a huge mistake and make giving Israel the first shot one of the dumbest things ever.. At least in the earlier war, the “12-day war” they had some justification for allowing the US to sucker punch them. No such excuse this time. The writing was on the wall.
It seems strange to me that Iran's leadership had their fated meeting above ground in daylight hours for the whole world to see so to speak.
(Shame on Putin for not having righteously adopted USA military practice for Russia's global advantage).
‘as such, this one’s for all the marbles’...
Political, and military stand-off moments are incredibly interesting, no matter how much anyone knows about the actual circumstances the world faces a decisive change that will affect all.
Thankfully, whether with this current situation or seemingly lesser ones, Simplicius makes complexity more graspable, or simpler for minds of all calibres..
Are we being led to the abyss or will some unthinkable, unknowable small miracle release the tension and the sheep be left to graze peacefully along the edge?
Hopefully not, the prospect of the world and true Jews, free of Zionism by a massive prolonged blitz of everything Zionist in occupied Palestine turned to bloody rubble, and a dozen or so Zionist Bankers incinerated in financial centres in the US, City of London and mainland Europe, would surely an uplifting reminder that humanity proper has at least a little fight left in them.
It's really too soon to tell. The last time air superiority alone scored a quick and decisive victory was during Desert Storm. I suppose we could also include the Six Day War but that one appeared to have caught the Egyptians and Syrians by complete surprise.
Larry Johnson gives a lot of solid arguing points on why this might be the start of a long, drawn out war.
Among them is the Iranian's higher pain threshold as evidenced by their tenacity during their decade long war with Iraq and their ability to weather crippling sanctions.
I know that (((our))) military is far more formidable and lethal than Iraq's but there's also a question of logistics and and the willingness to absorb casualties.
At this time, I'm unaware of any reports on US/IDF casualties but even if they were mounting, we'd have no way of knowing shit since there seems to be a media blackout just as there is suppression on footage or reports from inside Israel on the effects of Iranian strikes.
Mickey, that is such bullshit. What has a Baathist like Saddam got to do with the current situation in Iran. Many in Iraq were pleased to see Saddam gone. I think you'll find killing the Iranian spiritual leader will be an own goal for the US. 10 dead already in Karachi, Kashmir next. There are millions and millions out in the streets in Iran. This could easily ignite a religious fire that's difficult to extinguish. Perhaps you haven't been in Islamic countries much? Things can get out of hand pretty quickly.
What part of "An 86 year old man with no authority over the military" don't you understand? If Iran killed the Pope, would that mean they accomplished any sort of military objective in defeating Italy?
I keep asking where you source your information from. Still no reply it seems. I haven't even seen that in the MSM. Methinks he doth protest too much?"
You are right. I have NO credible sources than Israeli and US (which may be disinformation). But when Iran assured us ”through Khameneis son” that he was alive I instantly knew it was a lie. Iran has since declared that Khamenei left for the Virgins and that a new Commander for the IRGC is in place.
The alleged killed official is:
Ali Shamkhani
Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (often referred to as Defense Council Secretary)
Major General Mohammad Pakpour
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces
Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh
Minister of Defense
Unnamed intelligence chief
Head of Iranian Intelligence
This is of course from the wellknown Kagan ISW-site. Not always trusted as we all know.
Everyone is serious about being in shelters. Since the 1990s, Israel required hardened bunker like construction in the center of all new homes. Multi family and single family structures as well as Commercial.
Arab/Iranian construction methods still have problem with vendors cutting corners on concrete pours.
While you pick on martyanov, it's important to note that this whole ecosystem of alt-western bloggers and youtubbers is extremely wrong on every prediction out there and feeds on people naivete and wishful thinking.
Take all those scott ritters, will shryvers et al. and read their garbage, nothing came out of their predictions and "expert" commentary.
The sole skill of these self-proclaimed experts, for the most part, is to plagiarize the green dwarf by extracting paid subscriptions, donations, and monetizing themselves through social networks. Withdrawing these payments, the internet returns to its true purpose.
"whole ecosystem of alt-western bloggers and youtubers is extremely wrong on every prediction"
This has got to he the biggest sweeping statement I have ever heard? While it is true that most aren't useful for unpicking complex topics, it's best to avoid them, why waste your time? Even though I wouldn't waste my time on any mentioned (though Will Shriver I still read) I'm guessing they are right some of the time. Best to stick to non-Western pundits, the are less biased and often better informed. Though the likes of Big Serge, Simplicius or Alastair Crooke rarely disappoint.
Without a ground war Iran can't be defeated and there is no certainty that the West can win a ground war in Iran.
Without nuclear weapons an air campaign won't subdue Iran. The Americans probably aren't that mad, but the Israelis almost certainly are.
I don't see how the West can win a war where it trades aircraft, at c.$70-100m each with SAMs that cost $300k-1 million?
Plus with Chinese and Russian support (if present) Iran has an unlimited number of hypersonic missiles that we just can't stop, and SAMs. I can't see why the Russians and China wouldn't give Iran all the help they can?
If being realistic and taking in reality is being cynical and negative - so be it.
It says more about the people branding me ”cynical”.
Neither GM or I are here for pep-talks.
GM was right about a lot regarding the lethargic Kreml leadership and the development of the War in Ukraine. He is wrong about that nuke-War he has ”seen” and the Nuke War he is wishing.
I was right about Russia losing the War of Perception when they ceded the initiative to the Ukis letting them escalate the War right into the Homeland. I was right in that Russia missed their Window of opportunitys and that they should have capped the Uki leadership. I was right in that attrition goes both ways.
Irans clown leaderships only chance to shatter Israels perception of invincibility is to launch heavy stuff right into Tel-Avivs highrises. It is futile to ping Bahrain with one or two Shaheds. It is futile to ping on or two US small vessels. If Iran cant level Knesset, the Salination plants, The Dimona reactors they should stop fight.
Irans people will survive anyway in one form of autocracy or the other.
Better to take out five Israeli electric power plants; a few gas pipeline compressors and the main desalination plant. Maybe internet cables. This could cripple Israel.
Dude, they are already going through US and Israeli air defences on the first day, with weaponry that is ten to fifteen years old! Dubai was being hit by first generation drones, with zero AD response. What about those US military personnel that got fried up in the hotels they were hiding in ....... to avoid being hit. Less than two weeks ago I was reading where US military staff were bragging that Iranian ordnance would be ´cooked´ before they could cross the Persian gulf. Apparently not and I guess there is a complete absence of EW capability on the US side. What a joke.
It´s obvious that you are all pumped up with this but, sounded minded evaluation in this situation, especially Trump going nuclear with the temper, paints a much different picture than you.
Calm down and wait a bit. There will be plenty more blood spilled on all sides to come. I wasn't going to write anything and let you have your moment but, you already are looking spaced out in comparison to what is actually going on.
If you compare the first day of the 12-day War you can notice that Iran had no AD to defend Teheran and that their answers is unfocused and underwhelming. Could be that both sides is holding back trying to lure the other to expedite precious missiles. Whats going on is underwhelming compared to US 700 missiles/bombs sent into Iran and 500 from Israel (if I believe what Simplicius quoted).
Few are here for pep talks - I think you are wrong there. The points you continue to make about Russia's handling of the Ukraine operation all fail to consider the higher aims. Any strategy has its weaknesses that have to be mitigated as much as possible in order to accomplish the greater aims. To concentrate on those weaknesses without considering those overall aims is not good analysis, IMO. Russia has aims and objectives that it would be unlikely to accomplish if they were to have taken your advice. They knew full well the escalatory risks they were taking when they finalised their Ukraine/NATO/European strategy. A quick war was soon crossed out as a possibility early on as they solidified their objectives after being denied their proposals for a European security agreement and an initial attempt at a peace agreement with Ukraine that was sabotaged by the UK. They knew then that they would have to attack the root of the problem by long-term 'military-technical means'. which could well cost them an expansion of the operation into Russia territories. Do you really think they weren't aware of those risks in their planning? Have they made mistakes? Of course, they have. But they have adapted and are constantly improving.
They began to realise the West could not be trusted and that there would be no end to its attempts against the country. So they came up with a strategy that they believed would, in the long run, enable them to accomplish their ends (including likely unspoken ends) - de-nazification of Ukraine, a de-militarised Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine with no possibility of NATO membership and removal of all Ukrainian forces from the Donbass. Unspoken objectives were likely the opportunity to regain historic Russian lands (east and south Ukraine), the de-militarisation and dissolution of NATO, possibly the break-up of the EU and finally negotiating a European security agreement with individual European nations (which is what their initial objective was in proposing a pan-European security architecture).
To accomplish this they needed the most basic of requirements - time.
They needed time to finish rebuilding and substantially growing their military in anticipation of a possible European war, developing and producing new weaponry, reviving the old war industries, revising and updating tactical and operational methods and procedures to accommodate the demands of rapidly evolving modern warfare, developing and driving a massive import substitution programme to relieve the effects of illegal sanctions, re-orienting their markets eastward, and developing defensive strategies against a growing aggression from Europe and America.
A quick end to the war would make no sense in the face of the above mentioned needs to accomplish. To dismantle the EU and NATO and neutralise their ability to make war, they had to execute a war that would eventually endanger their existing stocks of weaponry, challenge the patience of their constituent populations, causing fractures and eventual economic destruction and their breakup - all without starting a larger pan-European war - thus, the war had to go on and on and on until Europe was exhausted and virtually defenseless; thus, they could not avoid the eventuality of intrusions into Russian territories nor direct attacks on NATO soil in order to prevent a premature war that might quickly escalate into a major war with the possible exchange of nukes.
In concert with the above disrobing of Europe and the West, the Russians, working with China saw the need of developing an alternative to the Western monetary and financial system as the US lost its hegemony over the world and a new multi-polar world was emerging. Thus was BRICS conceptualised and an alternative monetary and financial system devised capable of replacing the current systems. This too would take time.
A quick end to the Ukrainian operation would have put all this at risk as the fundamental Western infrastructure would have been left in place, and whilst Russia might have won the battle, they would have been forced to continue the underlying geopolitical war, constantly putting pressure on Russia, economically and militarily into the foreseeable future.
So they played the long game. And in my opinion, they, as well as the rest of the world outside the baby-killing zionist empire, made the right decisions and are on the way to an ultimate victory in spite of the relatively minor incursions into Russian territory.
But the long game isnt looking any good anymore. I have been working with ”Strategy” for many years and one big mistake is to assume a Strategy where there is only adaptation to forces you cant control.
The long range Flamingos are destroying assets in Russia, 2000km away.
And soon the confidence will be high enough by Trumpf&EU-minions to press Russia with more involvement. Russia seems to only object it - not making any moves to derail it.
I could be wrong but too many here are dreaming instead of thinking.
Lots of copium here. Wars are full of unpredictable consequences especially in the modern era, and the leadership of any country should seek to bring them to a close sooner rather than later. The SMO is longer than the Great Patriotic War and the Kremlin is still a long way off from destroying the AFU.
It appears the Kremlin just doesn't get it. The US and its imperialist allies in the West will never give up on their aim of destroying Russia no matter how it long it takes. Just as they would like to see the enslavement of China again.
You appear to have a high regard for your opinions, Mickey. Ofc you are pronouncing judgement on things that are still in flux. The biggest conflict in West Asia since WWII has just begun and you're already calling Iran's strategy futile. Perhaps from your throne in the heavens you see clearer than we mere mortals.
No offence Alphabet…I stick my head out. And you and others are free to chop it off. Been around for so long that I rather speak up rather than humming the gospel of others. I think you should read John Galtsky emminent commentary if you find mine as over the top.
“Irans people will survive anyway in one form of autocracy or the other.”
Honest. If they can’t fight they should get out of the politics business. If they’d give in to America’s demands 100 little girls would be playing in the park today. Would they have minded to have grown up in a west oriented regime? I suspect they wouldn’t have noticed. Either you do your best to destroy your enemy or roll over. There’s nothing worse than leadership without balls, no wonder Americans are confident, they might be evil but they’re bold.
Still, let’s see what happens. Though if the Iranians give up again I’ll probably take a more serious break from all this malarkey, I’m coming to the view I’m going to die surrounded by this decay. To everyone according to their Kharma.
Ah! So you own this form and Simply is your employee? The way you're saying it, like the green dwarf with his demands, I might think so but not believe it. Your opinion doesn't offend me, and when I post like this, it's because I find it better than crying out about the profound stupidity of the person I'm replying to. Should I buy a ticket to Disneyland?
Well, yes if truth be known and we all know that there is little 'happy horseshit' floating around these days. But to constantly go on about it to the almost total exclusion of the positives (and there are positives in my opinion) is not constructive - again, my opinion only. It is easy to identify and hammer on the negatives in any situation, but true analysis will explore both.
Iran's civilization is about to die of old age, dipshit. They're living in the past and can't figure out how to protect their top leadership from assassination by missile strike. And when they "fight back," they tell their enemies when, where, and what they're going to strike.
There's no "honor" in modern warfare, the dead don't win wars. The Iranians apparently didn't get the memo.
I don't think I ever said they weren't bombed at all. I said a deal was made for the B-2s to freely hit the sites, and a limited amount of time, such that the damage may have been questionable.
Ok. I get your point. Your eloquent words in numerous articles has made me an impression of "denial" that these attacks also heavily damaged Irans resources. This one from today "This only further confirms the fraud of last summer’s strikes because the B-2s were made to “knock the door down” in precisely this type of opening volley."
"Fraud" for me is something that is close to not ever happened.
I think US%Israel deliberately made a 12-day War just to test Iran and Irans answer.They then assessed the situation, damage done in Iran and damaged sustained by themselfes. They also tested how "dumb" they are believing in negotiations in one hour, the next being killed at home. This next round was done irrespectively of what the Oman negotiations had resulted in.
FWIW: it is fraud. It was purely theater that accomplished nothing. Ted Postel is a nuclear weapons expert from MIT with extensive knowledge of how the “bunker buster” would have reacted if it did work. HIs conclusion, “No Way!” Additionally, there is ISR showing Iran removing whatever was at Fordrow before the bombing.
Postel also says that with the enriched uranium it has now (which Iran was enriching to get Trump to back off on his threats) it would take only a couple of weeks in a room about the size of an apartment to produce weapons grade materials.
IIRC, the interview was with Diesen, but it may have been Judge Nap.
Fraud is fraud. No one said there weren't B2 bombers over Iran. No one said the bombs weren't dropped.
You keep saying the US is going to win. The US is only using Air Power. As Johnson just said in the Diesen interview out today, "Air Power alone has never won a war."
Even if Israel launches all of their nukes, Iran will still be there.
Look on the bright side. You're witnessing evolution in action: when predators kill off weak and incompetent prey, that clears the way for stronger and more competent prey to improve the prey species.
What you see in Iran today is the results of extraordinary incompetence by the leadership. That seems to be the result of a toxic mix of three ingredients that have combined to work against the interests of the revolution and the people and government of Iran.
The first ingredient is the counterproductive pride of the Persian people. There's a national streak in them of pride and arrogance, real hubris, that is all the stronger for being unearned. It is such a powerful national characteristic that it often leads them to terrible mistakes.
You see that hubris in their relationships with each other, always positioning. It comes out in their relationships with would-be allies, like the haughty rejection of closer military ties with Russia or economic ties with China. Just a few days ago Iranian authorities detained RT's correspondent/anchor Rick Sanchez in Iran and interrogated him for over two hours. What the fuck were they thinking doing that to an ally who had been very effectively communicating the depth of support among the Iranian population for their own government? They did the same thing on a far worse scale when they seized the US embassy and took American diplomats hostage in the opening days of their revolution: that totally undisciplined act of unearned hubris simply guaranteed a fifty year war with the US, not something they needed when they could have acted rationally after deposing the Shah.
But nope, there's that crazy hubris streak in the Persians that reminds me of the Poles, always eager to give rein to arrogance. Brothers, dial it back, please. It's not helping.
The second ingredient is allowing religion to destroy the technological basis of sovereignty, meaning the fatwah against the only weapons, nuclear weapons, which can prevent the annihilation of Iran by Israel, the United States, and the Sunnis. The Saudis have nuclear weapons, you know, and they pride themselves on being very observant Muslims. In fact, one possible end to Iran is a joint nuclear strike on Iran by both Israel and the Saudis acting together. There is that great a hatred for Iran by the Saudis. Whether the fatwah is being strictly observed or whether it has held back Iran to limiting itself to achieving rapid breakout capability for a limited number of nukes, it seems to have had a poisonous effect on Iran developing the nuclear weapons it needs to ensure its survival.
That's lethal damage in the modern arena of predator states versus prey. It is as if religious fundamentalism has ensured that Iran will be the defenseless hamster, fat with untapped oil revenues, dropped into a terrarium to feed the Israeli and American pythons.
No country in history that has seriously tried has taken 30 years to create nuclear weapons. Every country that has seriously tried has managed to do it in well under ten years, with the average time to breakout steadily reducing as nuclear know-how and technology have diffused into general science that's available to any third grader anywhere with a WiFi connection.
That tells us that there is a high probability Iran really did take seriously the religious fatwah by sclerotic leaders like Khamenei. That will have a terminal effect just as fatal as the religious fatwah against the printing of books other than the Koran had many centuries ago on Islamic countries, guaranteeing they would remain primitive prey in a world of technologically advancing predator states.
That brings me to the third element in the toxic triad, extreme incompetence. It's hard to tell what causes that incompetence. It could be a result of the first factor, arrogance, or it could simply be the result of terrible education, a lack of awareness of the basic technologies and capabilities that govern the modern world, but it certainly isn't genetic stupidity. Persians have always been very smart people, which is perhaps the root of their unearned arrogance. When you know you're smarter than everybody around you it's very easy to be lulled into unearned arrogance.
But extreme incompetence it is to have group meetings of your leadership when you know that two of the world's most technologically advanced intelligence and military powers have promised to kill your leadership. Likewise, failing to protect your leadership is a gross lapse in competence. I realize it is not easy when your regime is shot through with traitors (yet another indication of incompetence) to protect your leaders, nor is it easy to build bunkers deep enough to resist US bunker-busting bombs. But it can be done if you are competent.
It is also extreme incompetence for Iran to have taken "hours" to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases. Any competent leadership would have arranged alert forces to launch on warning or within a few minutes of the joint Israeli and US attack.
The bottom line is that the combination of arrogance, religious opposition to measures needed to ensure Iran's survival, and extreme incompetence all emanate from the leadership. If those leaders have been killed as Israel and the US claim, that could be an opportunity for more pragmatic and competent leaders to take their place. But one thing is for sure, as evolution has demonstrated with ruthless efficiency for a billion years, survival of the fittest leaves no room for the survival of the unfit.
It could be that among all of them Khamenei himself knew he had failed his country. It could be that he felt his role at the end was to be the martyr who would galvanize change in his country, that he himself resolved to clear the way for more effective leaders, and that is why he had the personal courage not to run and hide, but instead to take the blows of Satan onto himself.
As an American I am deeply saddened that my country has taken the path of lawlessness. The US was not in any imminent danger from Iran. What just happened was the launching of another illegal war by a President who doesn't give a shit about the Constitution or US law. That's been the pattern for hundreds of wars launched by US Presidents who have ignored the clear, black and white dictate of the Constitution that only Congress can start wars so nobody should be surprised that Trump, again, has started an illegal war.
But you can't say this attack came as any sort of surprise to the Iranians. Sad as it is to blame the victim, in this case it's clear Iran itself failed to take measures against the predator it knew was stalking it. Now we all know that if you fail to develop nuclear weapons, as North Korea did, you will never have true sovereignty and you may be erased from the world of nations.
The bright side is your comment! Far better analysis and conclusion than Simplicius article (he is ”good”-you are better).
Yes, I agree with it all John. I have long advocated that the teocratic rule of Iran was detrimentral to the nations interest. Nothing to add to your eloquent writing.
Regarding North Korea you are also right but I fear Trumpf, if he gets away with this adventure, will be so full of hubris himself, that he will try to tke out Fat Kim also. Why wait until they have really long range missiles…
I always wondered why all the “death to america, death to israel” rhetoric was necessary. It seemed so counterproductive and out of place in modern age. I don’t think the smarter, more competent people will take place. It is more likely the IRGC hardliners will take over and run the whole thing into the ground.
Yes, Death to America my make for good internal propaganda, maybe, but externally.... They may cease to believe you are serious, or worse they take them seriously and work to eliminate the threat.
I think it's a case of boomers are going to do what boomers are going to do, in terms of messaging. In the US, they write emails in all caps, in Iran "Death to America". Same difference.
I'm not too sad for the clerics (while not wanting to be on the same side as the Neo-Cons either). They're a bunch of fundamentalist who are basically preaching to the goat herder/f*** class of the country. The sort of people that need to claim God powers because they can't make a rational argument, should not be near power.
English comprehension is not your strong suit, apparently. Because I was saying exactly the same thing as you, but from the other viewpoint. Yes, jews view the rest of us as vermin.
The entire Congress you mention is controlled by AIPAC, so there is no safety in demanding that the US stick to the Constitution.
GW said it best - "It's just a g-d piece of paper."
Face it - the US is simply Israel's bitch, and it does what it is told.
But your spiel, repeated twice, about the pre eminence of the theory of evolution, is completely false.
If it were such a powerful survival mechanism, then we wouldn't have women running about today with rings in their noses, blue hair, and hell bent on destroying their babies.
Species are designed to co-exist in a divinely-ordained syncreticism; and they are all created perfectly for the niche they are designed to fill.
The problem with the world is not physical, ie a lack of sufficient adaptation to our environment - it's spiritual, and it's called "sin."
As for your point about Iran's foolishness for not developing nuclear weapons - nuclear weapons are associated with certain post facto problems; whereas an attritional war with the two great satans will assuredly result in the non nuclear destruction of both.
Even Aesop hinted at this when he wrote his fable about the tortoise and the hare.
Seeing the good having the bomb is doing Russia there certainly is a case for an advantage to not having it. You could conduct a conventional war against the US more freely and achieve a political victory without providing existential justification to the American leadership to launch against you. They can always retreat while saying “we’ll, if we really wanted to destroy them everybody knows we could”.
"If it were such a powerful survival mechanism, then we wouldn't have women running about today with rings in their noses, blue hair, and hell bent on destroying their babies."
Actually, that's a great example of evolution in action. What usually takes many millennia can happen in the blink of an evolutionary eye when really maladaptive behaviors emerge in a population.
Evolution doesn't work to ensure the maladapted survive, it works to ensure the maladapted over time are replaced by more adapted versions. That's exactly what's happening in the US and other pervert Western societies where populations that have higher proportions of women "hell bent on destroying their babies" are being out-birthed by populations where women have lots of babies and love them enough to help them grow into adulthood to have even more babies.
It's why Caucasians of European descent are headed into being a minority within the US and already are minorities in many urban areas, and it's also why the demographics of large swaths of Paris look more like Africa than France.
Regarding an attritional war with the two great satans, to win that attritional war Iran has to survive and I don't think it can do that without nuclear weapons to defend itself. Good examples of other oil-rich countries that couldn't pull off an attritional win against the US or the US plus Israel are Libya and Syria.
It doesn't look like any of the regional powers around Israel will be able to pull off an attritional win against Israel. They're either sell-outs or have even deeper competency problems than Iran.
On the other hand, Israel is supremely competent at being a regional satan. It's not going to go away until somebody like Ansar Allah gets nuclear weapons and then uses them against Israel. That easily could take another 50 or even 100 years.
Evolution is supposedly all about physical changes - nobody has ever spoken about it relating to intellectual ones - if it did, then Africans would have IQs somewhere above room temperature after all this time.
Remember - "mankind came out of Africa," so the process should be more marked there than anywhere else.
There isn't a shred of evidence for evolution anyway - it's a completely discredited notion - it could only ever have happened if an initial life form emerged that could evolve, and having examined how complex even so called primitive life forms are, then it is clear that they could only have been designed, and then animated - the likelihood of random changes producing such complexity is mathematically, zero.
Dr Steven Meyer goes into the details in his book Signature in the Cell, and expands upon it in his Return of the God Hypothesis.
But evolution has nothing to do with the decline in white populations; they are being outnumbered by design, ( jewish instigated - see the comments of Barbara Lerner Specter and Profesor Noel Ignatiev ) - and also encouraged not to have children, because they are obliged by the jewish feminist doctrine to abandon motherhood in exchange for working in an office throughout their fertile years.
Whatever you think about what Iran has to do to survive, wars are always decided in favour of the local population rather than an aggressor colonialist one, and already, the first 200 CIA and US troop bodies are being unloaded back home in the US from C130's.
And Trump told you there were only three dead.
Next he'll be telling you that evolution's true, too - and you will believe that as well.
Iranian hubris and arrogance led them to defeat and future slavery.,
This is much like what happened to Serbs who were also terribly arrogant, specially from 1988. and their "so called anti bureaucratic revolution", before defeated by USA in 1999. Now they are kissing American ass like everybody else in Eastern Europe.
“But you can't say this attack came as any sort of surprise to the Iranians. Sad as it is to blame the victim, in this case it's clear Iran itself failed to take measures against the predator it knew was stalking it. Now we all know that if you fail to develop nuclear weapons, as North Korea did, you will never have true sovereignty and you may be erased from the world of nations.”
Do you have even the slightest clue about conventionally-armed Iranian missiles? Do you honestly think Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6 can take down a hypersonic missile? And you talk of Iranian arrogance? At least you admit that they’re intelligent…
"Do you have even the slightest clue about conventionally-armed Iranian missiles?"
Of course I do. Thank you for taking the time to let us all know you don't.
You know, when I visited the Iranian military displays at the big international arms shows in Moscow over the last couple of years not once did I see you there. OK, I suppose that going in person to talk with the Iranians about their arms is not something you can afford to do, but the least you could do is try to read up on what they have available for weapons systems so you don't blather such incredibly stupid nonsense.
To take an example, let's look at the intensely stupid second question you asked: "Do you honestly think Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6 can take down a hypersonic missile?"
Why, exactly, is that an intensely stupid question? Easy. It's intensely stupid because Iran has a negligible number of hypersonic missiles, that is, the real deal hypersonic missiles and not simple ballistic missiles which some nitwits confuse with the real thing, so it really doesn't matter what the performance is of those air defense systems against hypersonics.
Ballistic missiles have been "hypersonic" in the sense of re-entering the atmosphere at several times the speed of sound since the 1950's. That's been going ever since the US used its harvest of Nazi rocket scientists from WWII to evolve ballistic missiles like the Redstone from V2 technology captured after WWII (interestingly enough, the US in the closing days of the war violated one of the very first treaties it had with the USSR by stealing a motherload of V2 technical documents and manufactured rocket parts from the USSR's assigned territory). Even relatively short range (hundred fifty miles or so) ballistic missiles fielded by the US in the 1950's shot up in high parabolic trajectories, climbing hundreds of miles up into space (even above the height of the International Space Station's current orbit) before re-entering to strike the Earth a mere hundred and fifty to two hundred fifty miles away. A big problem was the heating of the warhead on reentry, which was solved by a variety of means, mostly using ablative coatings.
But that's not what intelligent people mean by "hypersonic" missiles these days since such high arcs with all kinds of heat getting thrown off, like a meteor, on reentry can be seen from a thousand miles around and provide plenty of cues for interceptors. In productive conversation among intelligent people the word "hypersonic" in the context of missiles is used to mean those missiles that can fly at strong multiples of the speed of sound, typically seven to nine times the speed of sound, on low trajectories near the ground. That's what gives them an advantage because the low trajectory means you need close in radar or sensors to spot them, and then you have too little time to set up a good intercept solution, even if you have ultrafast short range interceptor missiles.
Flying at hypersonic speed in really thick air low down is difficult, so difficult that despite the US throwing billions of dollars at the problem it has yet to crack the code of how to do that. Russia has, of course. Iran is said to have done it, but that's one of those "believe it when you see it" claims, and even if it is true it clearly is true only for a relative handful of what must be hyper-expensive missiles. Building one of those that can carry a significant warhead, hundreds of kilograms, is even harder, so it's highly likely that Iran has not achieved that. Ah, and building one of those that can carry a significant warhead that will not disintegrate low down as it covers a significant distance and that will strike accurately is even more difficult.
That's always been Iran's problem with ballistic missiles. It has plenty of them but their accuracy sucks. That's no surprise as it is extremely difficult to get good accuracy with ballistic missiles. Even in the 1970's and early 1980's typical accuracies were only plus or minus about one hundred meters and many missiles fielded by the US were only plus or minus *four hundred meters*.
A good example of what it takes to improve accuracy was the evolution in US ballistic missiles from the Pershing I to Pershing II. Pershing 1 was fielded in the 60's and had a range of about 250 to 450 miles. It's accuracy was about half a mile, pretty shitty accuracy for anything without a nuclear warhead. Pershing II came out in the 1980's with a range of about 1100 miles with accuracy of about 40 meters (half a football field) but that dramatic increase in accuracy required an extraordinarily complex and expensive terminal guidance radar setup, where a radar in the missile compared the terrain it scanned to a stored set of terrain elevation maps to make adjustments. Doing that required huge infrastructure to precisely map terrain elevation from orbit using billion dollar satellites as well as extraordinary logistics to feed such data down to tactical Pershing II units in Europe. That technology also sucks in relatively flat terrain, since there are fewer distinct features to match to.
Iran does have a lot of ballistic missiles, but they're all relatively simple ballistic missiles without such terminal guidance razzle dazzle. It's clear from their performance in the 12 day war that their accuracy is about what you'd expect from the level of technology they've fielded: anywhere from 100 meter CEP to 500 meter CEP. It took the US phenomenal effort and hundreds of billions in 2026 dollars to achieve such accuracy back in the day, as well as shooting off hundreds if not thousands of test shots, so that the Iranians have achieved such accuracy while spending far less than the US both in money and test shots is certainly impressive. But it's still shit accuracy for conventional explosive warheads if you're aiming at specific buildings where missing by a football field, or even half a football field, is not going to destroy the building.
The US didn't care about such things because they were in the business of fielding tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in the 1 kiloton to 400 kiloton range on those missiles, so missing by half a football field was not a big deal when the target was an airfield or a troop concentration or a city. But Iran is striking with conventional warheads.
That's why *most* of the reports of strikes by Iran are weirdly off target, like hitting highways, hitting some building within a facility like an airport or port that's spread over a few square kilometers, but only much more rarely a hit on some significant building.
And Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6, aren't all that good even at hitting the relatively simple ballistic missiles Iran launches. They do get their fair share of intercepts but, given what total shit the oversold Patriot is, they often miss, like in the famous video making the rounds where a Patriot fires three times and still misses an incoming missile.
But those air defense systems are much better at knocking down cruise missiles and relatively slower drones, and that's what Iran has the most of.
So, to sum up, Iran doesn't have enough hypersonics for those to make a difference. They might not have enough hypersonics to even be noticed. So your comment about knocking down the hypersonics was just idiotic.
But to continue summing up, Iran does have very many ballistic missiles, although those all suffer from having relatively poor accuracy. Fire enough of them, hundreds of them, and yes, you should get some damage at, say, a US base that's targeted. But you have to fire very, very many and not just a dozen here or a dozen there as Iran has announced they've fired.
Finally, US and Israeli air defense systems are reasonably effective against cruise missiles and bigger drones. Iran may be able to fire enough of those to deplete available interceptor missiles required for those US and Israeli air defense systems, and then, possibly, Iran could continue firing cruise missiles and bigger drones to hit high value targets more precisely (Iran's cruise missiles and bigger drones have better accuracy than Iran's ballistic missiles).
But all that is a really tough row to hoe when under fierce attack by the US and Israel. That's why nukes are such a game changer. Drop two or three of those on Tel Aviv, say, 400 kilotons each, and you don't give a shit that the ballistic missile delivering them is only accurate give or take a football field.
It's also worth pre-positioning a nuke in a target city. Had Iran pre-positioned just five or ten 400 kiloton nukes, one each per major US city, that certainly would have deterred the US from attacking Iran.
there are nations who win, and are ready to accept all the rules of evolution to be able to win,
like British, Americans, Sunnis
and there are nations who are only accepting the win if it can be achieved according to their own rules
Irish, Shia
This is a of course a simple, black and white division, a dichotomy, positioning nations just on one axis, and most nations are somewhere else, in multidimensional space, but Shia i.e. Iranians are a clear example of a culture ready to accept sacrifice if needed to achieve victory on their own terms
Changing your strategy to accommodate what your enemies are doing is not the first choice in these cultures.
To British, Americans, it may seem like arrogance, i.e. defiant refusal to submit to reality
Why don't you obey the rules of real world? Why don't you do the obvious? Why don't you submit to reality?
What you call reality is not what Iranians, Afghans perceive as ultimate authority.
According to reality US should have won the war in Afghanistan,
Iran is defeated as it was unable or unwilling to obtain the Bomb.
From the moment they decided not to have the Bomb they were defeated.
We are also witnessing the terrible weakness of China and Russia.
Russia is occupied with its own war but China, that is the next on the US list did almost nothing.
Simply speaking. the global elites converge to capitalism, deeply subservient to Anglo Saxon/ Jewish elites. Not only the global elites but most of wage slaves around the world. It is a strong dream, an attractive dream. Nothing can wake the young consumers, Israel can kill 100 or 10000 or 1000000 children it does not matter anything for the EU/USA consumers.
One thing that might wake them up is ten-dollar gasoline. The "young consumers" of the US are not the problem; they know they're screwed. This war is on the boomers. Again.
The number of posts decrying Iran as some evil nation that does unspeakable evil, while being totally evil is horrifying. When not a single of those boomers has any actual idea about what's going on and how they've been propagandized nonstop since birth.
The warmongering boomers' most damaging trait is their complete lack of critical thinking.
I don't know that China and Russia are weak - they certainly are not.
But the US is like a rabid dog that cannot restrain itself - if China and Russia take up the sword, world destruction is imminent. They are being circumspect and showing restraint for the good of mankind.
I see your point, but I don't think appeasement of the Epstein class is for the good of mankind. They need to be confronted and put down as fast as possible. All delay just makes nuclear confrontation more, rather than less, likely.
"They need to be confronted and put down as fast as possible."
Well, that contradicts your following sentence: "All delay just makes nuclear confrontation more, rather than less, likely."
That's because confronting the "Epstein class" (I think an overuse of Epstein, but what the heck I'll go along if we understand that means the pervert / corrupt US deep state...) and putting it down can only be done via nuclear confrontation. So doing that not only makes nuclear confrontation more likely, it guarantees it will happen immediately.
I share your frustration but I cannot say for sure what the solution to that is which I can be more or less sure avoids massive nuclear escalation. I suspect one possible approach if you are willing to roll the dice with your nation's population is to call the US's bluff in their game of chicken.
The US thinks it can destroy Russia's Nordstream pipeline because Russia won't go nuclear to avoid destroying its own people in the inevitable mutual assured destruction. OK, fine. Two can play that game.
Suppose Russian submarines launched cruise missiles equipped with large but conventional explosive warheads at critical US infrastructure, like refineries and oil and LNG terminals? The US depends on a small handful of refineries to supply gasoline and diesel fuel. Exploding a few LNG tankers in port would annihilate the terminals.
What's the US going to do? Go nuclear? If they do Russia vaporizes US cities.
None of the above will happen, but hey, the US has set the precedent.
"Nuclear confrontation" was possibly the wrong word. I meant "nuclear exchange," to be clear, because I think calling the bluff is exactly what needs to happen. A year or two ago the bluff could have been called, perhaps, with only slight risk or harm - sinking ships off coast of Odessa, perhaps, or bombing a supply line from the west in Poland or even in Ukraine. Taking out Zelensky, taking out the parade of clowns visiting him in Ukraine... stuff like that. What it takes now to quell the disease I don't know. Rabies is highly contagious and always fatal.
You could be right about that, that calling the bluff earlier would have been better. The Russian leadership is open about their regret they did not do that sooner. Putin, for example, famously commented it was a mistake to wait from 2014 to 2022 before giving up on diplomacy and undertaking the defense of ethnic Russians through 'military-technical' means.
Now that we have France babbling about increasing its nuclear arsenal and handing out nukes to other Europeans (they mean, of course, Germany), the stakes are much higher and calling their bluff is much riskier.
But it could be done. I'd send a Russian tanker full of oil to Cuba to run the US blockade, letting Trump know in advance that nuclear weapons will be used to defend against any attack on that tanker. Move missile cruisers into position around the US flotilla blockading Cuba so the US knows Russia is not bluffing.
But the only way to call the US's bluff is direct military action/conflict with the US and that has very high likelihood of going nuclear even if the initial kinetic contact is non-nuclear. That's not something any leader with a strong grasp on reality discounts as a possible, even likely, outcome.
So it's not genius but cheap hindsight to say Russia was wrong not to call the US's bluff years ago. At the time that was an extremely rational decision based on very solid experience of 80 years to believe the Americans and their stooges had not lost contact with reality. At the time nobody could say that that the US response to Russia's action in February 2022 would be to place the entire US/stooge train on the rails that lead to nuclear war. That degree of irrationality had never before been seen from the US.
So what we are really talking about now is how do you deal with a nuclear armed state, the US, that has severe psychological problems, at the level of complete breaks with reality. Nothing in the US's history has prepared the country to handle the decline and fall of its empire. On the contrary, the past 70 years of the US's experience as a nation have put into power multiple generations of people committed to fakery over reality.
If they didn't have thousands of nuclear weapons you'd deal with them the way you would a rabid dog: put the miserable thing down. But the thousands of nuclear weapons they have put you in peril if you try that.
Nonsense. That the leadership in Russia and China love their own countries is precisely why they don't want to do anything stupid to destroy those countries. The problem with elites loving themselves more than their countries and their people is a western problem.
If the jews are permitted to destroy Iran and install their puppet prince Pavlavi, the Shah's son, as king, Russia and China will have done more to destroy their own countries than sinking a US warship would ever have done.
The best way to stop a bully is to punch him in the face. If you allow him to continue to bully, the bullying will never stop and will get even worse. That's why we are where we are today; no one did anything as the jews ran roughshod over everything, with their golem, the US, as their "muscle."
The leadership in Russia has pushed many soldiers to die while participating in false negotiations. Putin is just an instrument of Jewish and Russian oligarchs. Simmilar to Trump.
Russia is awfully pathetic in its cowardice.
Chinese and Russian people are spiritually obedient to the western gods of massive consumption.
Ha, ha. You talk big for somebody who won't ever get near a front line where you'll face Russians.
Just a friendly tip, by the way: say that stuff in some resort where Russians are within earshot and the next thing you know you'll be looking online for dental implants you can afford.
But you don't do that sort of thing, do you? You just mouth off on social media where you know the mathematics of the IQ bell curve guarantee there will be at least some people dumb enough to believe you.
Historical and psychological realities. The Iranians have a history going back 7000 years and a deep love for and commitment to their nation and their land. That is powerful psychologically and emotionally.
Israel was invented 78 years ago in a state of paranoid fear, rage and violence and has a commitment only to attacking other countries and taking their land. That is disempowering psychologically and emotionally.
Decades of sanctions has made Iran more self sufficient and independent.,
Israel is self sufficient in nothing but ego, hate, greed and violence.
Iran can survive without the world. Israel cannot survive without the world, and the world does not need Israel.
Yes, some people, ignorant ones believe negative things about Iran but most do not.
Most people on the planet loathe, detest and hate fizzrael and support the Palestinians, including most Americans and a majority of young american Jews.
Israel's genocide has revealed the Fifth Column invasion and interference in American politics, media and Government by Ziojewraelis and Americans will get increasingly angry about that as they suffer even more because of the wars demanded by the Israeli terrorist State.
South Africa was stronger, bigger and more independent than Israel could ever be and still its economy was crippled by boycotts and sanctions. Boycotts will grow against Israel as a pariah rogue state and sanctions are beginning and will increase. When Israelis are despised around the world, cannot travel, cannot sell anything, cannot buy anything the economy will implode. Already many Israelis are going back to where they came from and leaving behind the raging religious lunatics who could not run a toilet let alone a State.
Ok. Yes Persian people and the other 39 indegous population in Iran will survive but I am not sure about the nation. The couldnt defend themselves when they needed. They chickened out in June 2025.
Israel has become a pariah thanks to their behaviour against the Palestinians and others. But who will protest or boycott? Its a crime in almost all western world nations. And now they bragg about their influence in US and other parts of the world.
I have always said that we dont need teocratic states. Iran was one and Israel is another.
The Iranians did not chicken out in 2025. They were accurate, selective and bashed the Israelis bigtime so the Israelis begged the US to intervene to stop it. Not this time.
None of our business if a state is theocratic. Only our business if they are a threat to others which Israel is.
Absolutely spot on. This isn't a response to Mikey but in general people who bring up the theocracy part are conveniently at best or malignantly at worse forgetting* that Israel is fundamentally a theocratic state, it's a "Jewish State" in its own word ffs! What exactly is a Jewish State without Judaism?
That is cope. The Iranians fought the anglo-american-zionists to a standstill. Both sides needed time to rest and reload. They did. And now they are fighting again. The anglo-american-zionists will not stop until the mullahs are gone and a puppet regime is in power in Tehran. The Iranians, Russians, and Chinese either need to put up or shut up.
The people 'need' what they choose to need. If the people of any country want a theocracy, who are you to say otherwise? Besides, you totally misunderstand Iran's political/religious relationship. Consider the name - Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Islamic and it is a republic. The have a political leadership elected by the people. And they have Islamic leadership charged with making certain that the republic and its leadership remains Islamic and follows Islamic principles and behaviour. The government of Iran makes its own decisions based on the people's interests. The Islamic leadership makes certain those decisions are made in accordance with Islamic law. I see nothing undemocratic about that.
Name the 39. Persians are the majority then toss in some Kurds, Tats, Gilaks and some early Christians like the Assyrians and Mandaeans and some Turks.
My answer to the comment was with the background wht will happen when Leadership fails and you no longer can scare people to submission.
Iran is indeed home to a diverse array of indigenous ethnic groups, primarily consisting of Iranic, Turkic, and Semitic peoples who have inhabited the region for millennia. Persians form of course the largest group, while others are concentrated in specific border or peripheral regions.
Be my guest, eat this list:
Ethnic Group
Approx. % of Population
Primary Regions/Provinces
Persians (Fars)
51-61%
Central and eastern Iran: Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, Razavi Khorasan, Yazd, Kerman, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Markazi, Qom, Semnan, southern Golestan, northern Sistan and Baluchestan.
Azerbaijanis (Azeris)
16-24%
Northwest: East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan; also parts of Hamadan, Qazvin, Markazi, Kurdistan, Gilan, Tehran.
Kurds
7-10%
West and northwest: Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Ilam, West Azerbaijan; scattered in North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan.
Lurs
2-6%
West: Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Hamadan, Markazi, Ilam, Isfahan, Fars, Bushehr, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad; seminomadic in western mountains.
Baloch (Baluch)
2%
Southeast: Sistan and Baluchestan; minorities in Kerman, Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan, Hormozgan, Mazandaran, Golestan.
Arabs
2-3%
Southwest: Khuzestan; smaller communities in Qom, Razavi Khorasan, Fars.
Turkmen
1-2%
Northeast: Golestan, North Khorasan; largest city Gonbad-e Kavus.
Gilaks
~4%
North: Gilan; some in western Mazandaran (Ramsar, Tonekabon), Golestan (Bandar-e Gaz, Kordkuy).
Mazanderanis
~4%
North: Mazandaran; populations in eastern Tehran (Firuzkuh, Damavand, Shemiranat), Semnan (Shahmirzad), Golestan.
Qashqai
~1% (part of Turkic groups)
South: Fars (around Shiraz), Khuzestan, southern Isfahan; nomadic herders.
Bakhtiari
~1% (related to Lurs)
Southwest: Zagros Mountains west of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan; seminomadic.
Talysh
<1%
North: Gilan (Hashtpar, Rezvanshahr, Fuman, Masuleh), parts of Astara, Ardabil.
Khorasani Turks
<1% (part of Turkic groups)
Northeast: North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, Golestan.
Semnanis
<1%
East: Semnan province.
Larestanis (Achoms)
<1%
South: Fars (Lar, Lamerd), Bushehr, Hormozgan, Kerman.
Tats
<1%
Northwest: South Qazvin (Takestan county), near Alborz Mountains.
Khalaj
<1%
Central: Markazi (Arak), Qom.
Smaller indigenous or long-established groups like Brahuis (Sistan region) and isolated Dravidian-speaking communities (southeast Sistan) are also present but represent less than 1% combined.
Groups such as Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Circassians, Jews, and Mandaeans are historical minorities with ancient ties to the region but are often considered distinct due to their non-Iranic origins; they are concentrated in urban areas like Tehran, Isfahan, and Khuzestan.
Many groups, especially nomadic ones like Qashqai and Bakhtiari, maintain traditional lifestyles alongside settled communities.
Eva Vlaadingerbroek was speaking somewhere recently; she pointed out that if you were the majority, but are now only 49%, you will be outvoted, ( eg by incoming Somalis / Indians ) so as she said "How will that work out for you?"
At least a theocracy is based on certain moral principles; which of course neither Israel nor the US have.
The only one guiding the jew is the one which goes "Even the best of the Gentiles must be killed, as even the best of snakes must be killed."
I choose (for Iran) an autocratic military rule over the teocratic clowns. If and when they are mature enough we can elaborate over ”democratic” rule whatever that is nowadays…
West has lost all morale principles but I do not wish for some muslim sharia.
I dont miss Khamenei att all. But it is wrongful for US/Israel to kill whatever foreign leaders they want.
jews have never been able to create a civilization: their supremacist hubris and indoctrinated hatred of "others" have consumed their energies. They always cling to other peoples' cultural achievements. Even their traditions are a motley collection of other peoples' rituals, dresses, headdresses, songs, languages, and so forth. Whatever is truly "theirs" -- like kol nidre and mishnah niddah 44b:9 -- is abhorrent to any decent person.
So how do you explain the Coptic Christians and where did they vanish?
The PLO was established when?
"Israel was invented 78 years ago in a state of paranoid fear, rage and violence and has a commitment only to attacking other countries and taking their land. "
Maybe a raging religious lunatic is the captain of the Gerald Ford, then.
But note - all the jews, whether young or old, in Israel, support the genocides; and so if those in the US don't seem to - don't believe them.
They are simply chameleons trying to blend in with the majority - take any one of them back to its native land and you will soon find out the truth about them.
Magical thinking. They own the governments of almost the entire world. They will stop surviving when, and only when, the world rises up and crushes the life out of them.
We are almost at sync but with two points as an extension. "They own the governments", indeed that's exactly what I meant when I said externalities. It's a plastic state, it has no organic life of its own. Second, we tend to overlook the fact that governments aren't the people anymore. Governments all around themselves have become parasitic. But yes, agree w/ your assertion. Sooner or later we, the people will have to snatch back our right of sovereignty.
You’re using words that don’t mean anything, though: “plastic,” no “organic” life of its own, your criticisms of the governments. Israel is a big tick that has attached itself to the largest sow on the farm. It’s the way ticks thrive. And Israel is thriving and will continue to thrive until eradicated, but this won’t happen “organically.” It will happen, if it ever does, because the world decides that it should be destroyed once and for all and takes specific action to rid of us the plague it embodies. There’s nothing inevitable about that at all, except that all living things, even grotesque parasites, eventually perish.
Logic says he would not have been in his compound for weeks. I think he is safely alive along with anyone else important and the Iranians are playing the game with the idiot Ameraelis.
Or he was a brave and noble man who refused to run and hide and believed his death would unite Iranians in strength, faith, trust and determination.
Whatever the answer it is win-win for Iran and lose-lose for the Ameraelis.
It has been reported (quoting shitrael spokescum) Khamenie was attending a meeting with high ranking Iranians at the time, the shitraelis discovered that and decided to attack earlier than planned to take advantage.
As this comes from the genocidal entity scepticism is required.
Yes, it would fit more with who he appeared to be. Like the Palestinians the Iranians stand as a testament to courage and integrity in the face of the most terrible odds.
I saw something about that but on Twitter. Not sure if it's real or not. On Twitter some are saying - just hit the Wailing Wall. Nobody there right now. Israel has no boundaries / respect. So respond in kind... but maybe that comes later after China-Taiwan starts, then US is preoccupied. Israel less US help...
Simplicius. Thank you for the great summary. What are your thoughts on why Iran has been targeting Dubai so much today? We have heard news about numerous strikes on Bahrain but very little it seems on Israel? Course Israel may have a media blackout imposed.
To be honest it may seem like a lot but it was a few random drones here and there which easily get through since Dubai appears to have no defenses. For Iran it would be a minor trifle to send a few drones out of hundreds/thousands sent elsewhere. Some have even suggested it could be certain Iranian military units/commanders acting independently, but the most plausible reason so far is the one I gave in the article: that Iran may be trying to disrupt the region's economic hotspots to bring economic pain and force pressure on US to de-escalate.
thanks Simplicius. I liked the video alot. I'm sad too today. Such a good man. The US excels in killing children and an 86 year old man. Victory. Satan truly rules and I'm getting scared for the first time about my quiet life in rural Nova Scotia. I'm going to make the long drive to town tomorrow to fill up my gas tank and buy my old horses some extra provisions. Wish I had more money. I can't even get my barn door open now because of the snow last week. But that's nothing compared to what Gaza has become. God bless Gaza. And Khamenei And his daughter and family. Iran takes such hits. I think when Vladimir Soloviev the first, said the anti-Christ will be brought down by the Israelis.....what his clairvoyant prophetic vision saw was the true descendants of the original Hebrews - the Palestinians and the entire Levant/Iranian Resistance - not those thugs from Romania and Poland
Most of the attacks have been on Gulf states and not Israel proper. The attacks are being successful. That swank hotel destroyed on Palm Island for example. Will the "citizens" of the Gulf states watch their nation get mauled and then not take out the failed leadership? The many videos of the Bahraini's cheering the successful missile attacks suggest they are not happy with the status quo.
Iran carefully laid out what would happen if attacked by the US. They said the attack would be a US attack even if it was with Israeli planes. Consider, as a for instance, that Israel doesn't have the tankers. (As an aside, what the hell are all the tanker missions out of St. Croix all about? 4-8/day)
The point being made was Iran declared "open season" on all US allies. So far, they've only used "old missiles". The "new ones" aren't suppose to be deployed for another 24-48 hours. (Is this all BS?)
An attack solely on Tel Aviv would not have made it clear that Iran views this as a war with the USA.
The results of the 12 day war seem to argue differently.
Your position reminds me of GM and his attacks on Putin for not pursuing the SMO with more urgency. His impatience fails to see the bigger picture.
I guess it is possible he's right (and so you too might be right).
But, I'd rather believe the pundits who explain that "slow and steady wins the race." As I already explained, I have my hopes that Trump's defeat here will lead to some serious reimagining of what the USA is.
Nima was being interviewed by Pascal and they were discussing that the ultimate target of the neocons is China. They pointed out that Mearscheimer predicted US actions in Ukraine would lead to a tighter bond between Russia and China, and that Iran has become part of that group.
I guess we'll see if mankind's greed is more powerful than his hope for cooperation. I guess I'm just a dreamer.
I find your causality strange. If Israel lost the 12 day war so badly, why did they just start another one?
They didnt. They started the last war and ended it when they wanted it to end - why did iran agree so easily to a ceasefire? - and now started up again but with their pet gorilla in the ring with them.
That's one way of looking at it I guess. I prefer the idea that Iran isn't overrun with a bunch of religious zealots that just want to kill everyone and bring about the end of the world.
You see them as a bunch of losers to be taken advantage of.
Well, in Africa, France was kicked out of the Sahel, and the US was just recently "removed". It does seem that there is a lot to consider when making an evaluation.
Yep. The ukie leadership should have been wiped out years ago. Sad that an attempt was made on Putin's life but none have been made against zelenski, Trump or Biden by either the Russians or Iranians.
So all you are able to express is "you're wrong!" and i probably know more of the Russian mindset than most of the self-proclaimed Russia whisperers here.
Those guys are just trolling. They would have you believe they know everything. Their omniscience worshipped. Ofc they know very little by their comments. If they do know much it means they are on someone's payroll and not to be trusted anyway. So they either make shit up (probably) or are the lowest of humans destined for hell.
Main gig, cognitive warfare is one of the primary domains of war. No military or intelligence operation would be without extensive troll farms and bot armies.
Oh course not but they are not going to hide casualty numbers for the simple fact that the media would get ahold of it from a family member or something and it would be international news for the next 3 years and they would impeach Trump again for the tenth time. Better to just say what the numbers are, which they did immediately, the families were not even notified yet and they had those numbers out.
I would think that the US tagging along to assassinate a religious leader would cause widespread localized retaliation events. Maybe I'm wrong, but shouldn't this act upset even the Sunni Muslims in the region?
Khamenei's martyrdom will ensure that this gets ugly . Iran not using its ballistic missile stocks makes no sense when it's in an existential struggle . I suspect they are waiting for the USA and Israel to have their assets concentrated where they can be severely damaged . The missile launches would have already allowed the Iranians to gain knowledge of where defences are located thanks to the Chinese . The Israelis didn't realise their vulnerabilities until late in the 12 day war . We will have a clearer picture in a few days .
Possible scenario: as air defences get depleted the assets will have to be concentrated to stay under the "defence umbrella" . They will have to stay in range for strikes so this is theoretically possible .
Ok, see your point. I think the Israeli/US forces are enough dispersed and they have too many bases.
Irans only chance is to deliver a deadly blow to Israel by ruining the Desalination plants and soread som dust from Dimona reactor. To hurt US they will have ti sink a US Carrier - nothing else matters.
anther jew holiday about genocide.
Terrorism ? The Jew and USA is the real terrorist.
Sending explosive pavers - king david hotel. Etc
Another poor brain-washed juice apologist and tax slave for his masters in $lumville.
I do not believe China is sitting doing nothing. They have probably gamed this and see Iran winning the round by enduring against the 5 second attention spans of Zio maggots and their premature victory declarations. China has been stockpiling oil for a long time. The US has not.
They see Round 3, Round 4 etc in the future....each round, Iran gets more and more arms and support.
Iran and China, Russia do not play "quickies" like the Anglo Zio OnlyFans class. They see far ahead into the future, beyond successive US rent-a-presidents
If we compare initial stages of this attack and 12 days war attack, then Iran is doing much better.
Decapitations did not work (duh), better prepared for cyber attacks, haven't seen any FPV drone attacks from within and so forth.
And it is much bigger attack now than before, supposedly on par with Iraqi shock and awe.
I guess Rus and China helped somehow.
How long before someone takes out Trump, Netenyahoo or any of the neocon goons?
First?
Victor is planning a decapitation strike on your HQ.
He doesn't suffer pre empters gladly.
LOL. Of course I do. Congrats, Sam!
Hey Victor. Have you watched Alistair Crooke on the Cradle podcast?
It is a great antidote to all the bullshit being posted.
https://youtu.be/_LDUPhJ8isc?si=PvouphKyD70MRVK3
Boom, boom Tel-Aviv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZkAzeNvHbw&list=WL&index=61
And speaking of decapitation strikes, I am left wondering today what is happening in Iran. Besides decapitating their leadership and killing 108 little girls attending school, where is all the damage to Iran? All I hear from Western media is about how Iran is bombing the shit out of the little girl killers and the pedo empire, but almost nothing about the bombing of Iran. Wondering why that is - unless of course, the missiles aren't actually getting through - otherwise it seems to me that the US and israel would be shouting on the rooftops.
Anyone heard anything else? Perhaps the bombing of a wedding party? Or perhaps a pre-school nursery? Maybe a retiring nurse's leaving do. A hospital or two? I don't know - surely they have found some innocent soul to rip to pieces. They sure can't seem to find any military targets.
OTOH, I have heard sporadic reports of possible attacks on American ships. Is there anything to confirm that? If ships have not yet been attacked, why not?
4 ballistic missiles fired at American ACC Abrham Lincoln. ZOG sez all missed, which appears 2B the case. Meanwhile, 2 tankers hit and burning in the Hormuz Strait. Also some kibbutz in Izrahell got hammered, with 10+ colonists killed.
Iran says the missiles aimed at the Lincoln were successful (whatever that means).
My question is this, however: Where are the Russian and Chinese air defenses? Tehran seems to be subject to massive air strikes with israeli and American missiles seemingly hitting at will, and America claiming complete air superiority, according the zio sources - OTOH apparently Iran's Mig-29s are attacking American airbases across the region - how does 'air superiority' square with that?
*sigh* The fog of war.....
Multiple F15s downed in Kuwait. US embassy on fire.
I suppose it's called "the fog of war."
Probably a lot of the Starlink terminals have been intercepted by the authorities, and their internet shut down, so it will be difficult to get imagery out to the waiting western media.
If there's fog, that's good for the Russians; they'll launch a Mad Max-style offensive.
Our government-controlled propaganda media machine will not put out the truth as long as the money changers are in control.
This sums up my thoughts.
https://i.imgur.com/eb6ozFV.jpeg
Looks like the Iranian leadership will be a strong contender for the Darwin prize this year.
Well, like Bush junior mentioned, fool me once...
What the dunce actually said: "There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again'".
:))
I have it here somewhere... too late now, I'll find it tomorrow.
Well, the Ayatollah was 86 years old. It can be really tough to get people of that age to leave their homes. At the same time, why were several members of top Iranian leadership meeting together at a time when war was imminent? And how did Israeli spies know their location? Obviously, Mossad is really good at assassinations.
because they *don't get it*. Someone in Iran obviously does get it, and hence the mass underground military infrastructure that's keeping Iran in this, but it seems the higher ups were in many cases just not the kind of guys you need when you're up against such capable and vicious psychopaths as Iran finds itself. It's astounding after the Hezbollah decap and the earlier attacks on Iran.
This sums up my thoughts.
https://i.imgur.com/eb6ozFV.jpeg
Yes. Now the Deathmatch has started and one side did a KO. Iran waited like sitting ducks. They even gathered their teocratic leadership and possible IRGC commanders for Israel to wipe out. How about changing strategy in future Wars and always kill the leadership first? Something that has been haram to advocate regarding Ukraine…
Iran are either incompetent or cowards if they got trapped twice. US&Israel attacking first in the middle of negotiations and for the second time killing the leadership the first they do.
Their talk of biggest revenge is not credible. Thanks to Irans hesitation, Israel&US managed to destroy another dozen? precious launchers. What to do with 1000 missiles if you cant launch them?
Trumpf and Netanyahu will be hailed as heros and geniuses if they get away with this. Not a bright future for the World. No one will be safe from ”certain death”, negotiations or agreements are no guarantee.
And I dont like that Simplicius is insisting on that Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan wasnt bombed at all. Iran is getting destroyed.
If they do pull off a fierce and deadly counterattack now, I'll admit that striking preemptively wasn't an absolute necessity. If they now look for an off ramp I'll just say they were stupid not to attack first. Surely they can't let this assassination go unanswered.
The media said Trump bad and Iran good, so is it a surprise?
hey, epstenian, close your whining museums already...
Of all of the intellectually-challenged comments here, yours definitely takes the prize. Go back to your duelling banjos…
Surely they can. they did it with Sulemani, they did it with their former President, they did it last time - they agreed to truce/ceasefire without crippling Israel when they had the possibility.
It was a rhetorical question. I know they could wimp out here. It would be a huge mistake and make giving Israel the first shot one of the dumbest things ever.. At least in the earlier war, the “12-day war” they had some justification for allowing the US to sucker punch them. No such excuse this time. The writing was on the wall.
It seems strange to me that Iran's leadership had their fated meeting above ground in daylight hours for the whole world to see so to speak.
(Shame on Putin for not having righteously adopted USA military practice for Russia's global advantage).
‘as such, this one’s for all the marbles’...
Political, and military stand-off moments are incredibly interesting, no matter how much anyone knows about the actual circumstances the world faces a decisive change that will affect all.
Thankfully, whether with this current situation or seemingly lesser ones, Simplicius makes complexity more graspable, or simpler for minds of all calibres..
Are we being led to the abyss or will some unthinkable, unknowable small miracle release the tension and the sheep be left to graze peacefully along the edge?
Hopefully not, the prospect of the world and true Jews, free of Zionism by a massive prolonged blitz of everything Zionist in occupied Palestine turned to bloody rubble, and a dozen or so Zionist Bankers incinerated in financial centres in the US, City of London and mainland Europe, would surely an uplifting reminder that humanity proper has at least a little fight left in them.
It's really too soon to tell. The last time air superiority alone scored a quick and decisive victory was during Desert Storm. I suppose we could also include the Six Day War but that one appeared to have caught the Egyptians and Syrians by complete surprise.
Larry Johnson gives a lot of solid arguing points on why this might be the start of a long, drawn out war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HV-NUKmVIs&t=1253s
Among them is the Iranian's higher pain threshold as evidenced by their tenacity during their decade long war with Iraq and their ability to weather crippling sanctions.
I know that (((our))) military is far more formidable and lethal than Iraq's but there's also a question of logistics and and the willingness to absorb casualties.
At this time, I'm unaware of any reports on US/IDF casualties but even if they were mounting, we'd have no way of knowing shit since there seems to be a media blackout just as there is suppression on footage or reports from inside Israel on the effects of Iranian strikes.
Good clip. Thanks. Nima's podcast is one of the best.
Last time they didnt kill Saddam.
This new strategy of wiping out entire leadership is giving an edge that is hard to counter.
"giving an edge that is hard to counter"
Mickey, that is such bullshit. What has a Baathist like Saddam got to do with the current situation in Iran. Many in Iraq were pleased to see Saddam gone. I think you'll find killing the Iranian spiritual leader will be an own goal for the US. 10 dead already in Karachi, Kashmir next. There are millions and millions out in the streets in Iran. This could easily ignite a religious fire that's difficult to extinguish. Perhaps you haven't been in Islamic countries much? Things can get out of hand pretty quickly.
Maybe so, but Trump has opened the door to head regime change for everybody.
Everybody.
Perhaps a shory, penis clad piano player in Eastern Europe should be concerned?
Everybody!
You really aren't the sharpest tool in the shed.
What part of "An 86 year old man with no authority over the military" don't you understand? If Iran killed the Pope, would that mean they accomplished any sort of military objective in defeating Italy?
Entire High Command eliminated.
Vatican is not Italy - it is its own entity.
Last time I checked, Italy was not governed by a theocracy, but I am not the sharpest tool in the shed either.
"Entire High Command eliminated."
I keep asking where you source your information from. Still no reply it seems. I haven't even seen that in the MSM. Methinks he doth protest too much?"
I am always honest, Alphabet…
You are right. I have NO credible sources than Israeli and US (which may be disinformation). But when Iran assured us ”through Khameneis son” that he was alive I instantly knew it was a lie. Iran has since declared that Khamenei left for the Virgins and that a new Commander for the IRGC is in place.
The alleged killed official is:
Ali Shamkhani
Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (often referred to as Defense Council Secretary)
Major General Mohammad Pakpour
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces
Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh
Minister of Defense
Unnamed intelligence chief
Head of Iranian Intelligence
This is of course from the wellknown Kagan ISW-site. Not always trusted as we all know.
I am not alone…
Big Serge: https://x.com/witte_sergei/status/2028509765186498915?s=20
So, how are they still fighting back?
You dont need to have a high command to fight back but as you see the Iranian attacks are random and un-coordinated and without any strategic value.
Your responses are like having a cheese grater rubbing against the brain. Absolute noise.
Everyone is serious about being in shelters. Since the 1990s, Israel required hardened bunker like construction in the center of all new homes. Multi family and single family structures as well as Commercial.
Arab/Iranian construction methods still have problem with vendors cutting corners on concrete pours.
The Brits were crowing too, when they sunk the General Belgrano - and then came "The Sheffield Incident."
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
I want to be able to read my book by the light of a burning Khazarael.
larry johnson is an idiot. right there next to andrei martyanov
Like to broadcast your ignorance, much?
You're looking in the mirror... Chip
While you pick on martyanov, it's important to note that this whole ecosystem of alt-western bloggers and youtubbers is extremely wrong on every prediction out there and feeds on people naivete and wishful thinking.
Take all those scott ritters, will shryvers et al. and read their garbage, nothing came out of their predictions and "expert" commentary.
The sole skill of these self-proclaimed experts, for the most part, is to plagiarize the green dwarf by extracting paid subscriptions, donations, and monetizing themselves through social networks. Withdrawing these payments, the internet returns to its true purpose.
oh, i would definitely include scott ritter, douglas mcgreggor and many others into the same category.
Yeah, I think Brian Berletic, Mark Sloboda, Rybar en Paul Craig Robberts are more realistic in their analysis.
Almost all others seem to just voice their wishful thinking and turned out to be extremely inaccurate.
Notice that Brian is posting only when needed and doesn't go around producing tons of posts and videos just to hear himself talk.
The X - Youtube ecosystem of geopolitical chatter is disgusting atm.
"whole ecosystem of alt-western bloggers and youtubers is extremely wrong on every prediction"
This has got to he the biggest sweeping statement I have ever heard? While it is true that most aren't useful for unpicking complex topics, it's best to avoid them, why waste your time? Even though I wouldn't waste my time on any mentioned (though Will Shriver I still read) I'm guessing they are right some of the time. Best to stick to non-Western pundits, the are less biased and often better informed. Though the likes of Big Serge, Simplicius or Alastair Crooke rarely disappoint.
Without a ground war Iran can't be defeated and there is no certainty that the West can win a ground war in Iran.
Without nuclear weapons an air campaign won't subdue Iran. The Americans probably aren't that mad, but the Israelis almost certainly are.
I don't see how the West can win a war where it trades aircraft, at c.$70-100m each with SAMs that cost $300k-1 million?
Plus with Chinese and Russian support (if present) Iran has an unlimited number of hypersonic missiles that we just can't stop, and SAMs. I can't see why the Russians and China wouldn't give Iran all the help they can?
Mikey, you are beginning to sound like GM more every day - are you in competition now to see who can be the most cynical and negative? 😉
What I wish to happen is not always what happens…
If being realistic and taking in reality is being cynical and negative - so be it.
It says more about the people branding me ”cynical”.
Neither GM or I are here for pep-talks.
GM was right about a lot regarding the lethargic Kreml leadership and the development of the War in Ukraine. He is wrong about that nuke-War he has ”seen” and the Nuke War he is wishing.
I was right about Russia losing the War of Perception when they ceded the initiative to the Ukis letting them escalate the War right into the Homeland. I was right in that Russia missed their Window of opportunitys and that they should have capped the Uki leadership. I was right in that attrition goes both ways.
Irans clown leaderships only chance to shatter Israels perception of invincibility is to launch heavy stuff right into Tel-Avivs highrises. It is futile to ping Bahrain with one or two Shaheds. It is futile to ping on or two US small vessels. If Iran cant level Knesset, the Salination plants, The Dimona reactors they should stop fight.
Irans people will survive anyway in one form of autocracy or the other.
Better to take out five Israeli electric power plants; a few gas pipeline compressors and the main desalination plant. Maybe internet cables. This could cripple Israel.
Agree. If it is possible. Have we learnt something from Ukraine? It takes thousands of drones and missile to cripple that sort of infra-structures.
Desalination is key.
Israel is a small place. A focused attack could take out 3-5 key power plants and crash much of the grid.
Dude, they are already going through US and Israeli air defences on the first day, with weaponry that is ten to fifteen years old! Dubai was being hit by first generation drones, with zero AD response. What about those US military personnel that got fried up in the hotels they were hiding in ....... to avoid being hit. Less than two weeks ago I was reading where US military staff were bragging that Iranian ordnance would be ´cooked´ before they could cross the Persian gulf. Apparently not and I guess there is a complete absence of EW capability on the US side. What a joke.
It´s obvious that you are all pumped up with this but, sounded minded evaluation in this situation, especially Trump going nuclear with the temper, paints a much different picture than you.
Calm down and wait a bit. There will be plenty more blood spilled on all sides to come. I wasn't going to write anything and let you have your moment but, you already are looking spaced out in comparison to what is actually going on.
Try peace man.
Thx, John. I dont need a moment - I need Peace.
If you compare the first day of the 12-day War you can notice that Iran had no AD to defend Teheran and that their answers is unfocused and underwhelming. Could be that both sides is holding back trying to lure the other to expedite precious missiles. Whats going on is underwhelming compared to US 700 missiles/bombs sent into Iran and 500 from Israel (if I believe what Simplicius quoted).
Few are here for pep talks - I think you are wrong there. The points you continue to make about Russia's handling of the Ukraine operation all fail to consider the higher aims. Any strategy has its weaknesses that have to be mitigated as much as possible in order to accomplish the greater aims. To concentrate on those weaknesses without considering those overall aims is not good analysis, IMO. Russia has aims and objectives that it would be unlikely to accomplish if they were to have taken your advice. They knew full well the escalatory risks they were taking when they finalised their Ukraine/NATO/European strategy. A quick war was soon crossed out as a possibility early on as they solidified their objectives after being denied their proposals for a European security agreement and an initial attempt at a peace agreement with Ukraine that was sabotaged by the UK. They knew then that they would have to attack the root of the problem by long-term 'military-technical means'. which could well cost them an expansion of the operation into Russia territories. Do you really think they weren't aware of those risks in their planning? Have they made mistakes? Of course, they have. But they have adapted and are constantly improving.
They began to realise the West could not be trusted and that there would be no end to its attempts against the country. So they came up with a strategy that they believed would, in the long run, enable them to accomplish their ends (including likely unspoken ends) - de-nazification of Ukraine, a de-militarised Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine with no possibility of NATO membership and removal of all Ukrainian forces from the Donbass. Unspoken objectives were likely the opportunity to regain historic Russian lands (east and south Ukraine), the de-militarisation and dissolution of NATO, possibly the break-up of the EU and finally negotiating a European security agreement with individual European nations (which is what their initial objective was in proposing a pan-European security architecture).
To accomplish this they needed the most basic of requirements - time.
They needed time to finish rebuilding and substantially growing their military in anticipation of a possible European war, developing and producing new weaponry, reviving the old war industries, revising and updating tactical and operational methods and procedures to accommodate the demands of rapidly evolving modern warfare, developing and driving a massive import substitution programme to relieve the effects of illegal sanctions, re-orienting their markets eastward, and developing defensive strategies against a growing aggression from Europe and America.
A quick end to the war would make no sense in the face of the above mentioned needs to accomplish. To dismantle the EU and NATO and neutralise their ability to make war, they had to execute a war that would eventually endanger their existing stocks of weaponry, challenge the patience of their constituent populations, causing fractures and eventual economic destruction and their breakup - all without starting a larger pan-European war - thus, the war had to go on and on and on until Europe was exhausted and virtually defenseless; thus, they could not avoid the eventuality of intrusions into Russian territories nor direct attacks on NATO soil in order to prevent a premature war that might quickly escalate into a major war with the possible exchange of nukes.
In concert with the above disrobing of Europe and the West, the Russians, working with China saw the need of developing an alternative to the Western monetary and financial system as the US lost its hegemony over the world and a new multi-polar world was emerging. Thus was BRICS conceptualised and an alternative monetary and financial system devised capable of replacing the current systems. This too would take time.
A quick end to the Ukrainian operation would have put all this at risk as the fundamental Western infrastructure would have been left in place, and whilst Russia might have won the battle, they would have been forced to continue the underlying geopolitical war, constantly putting pressure on Russia, economically and militarily into the foreseeable future.
So they played the long game. And in my opinion, they, as well as the rest of the world outside the baby-killing zionist empire, made the right decisions and are on the way to an ultimate victory in spite of the relatively minor incursions into Russian territory.
I buy your argumentation and time will tell…
But the long game isnt looking any good anymore. I have been working with ”Strategy” for many years and one big mistake is to assume a Strategy where there is only adaptation to forces you cant control.
The long range Flamingos are destroying assets in Russia, 2000km away.
And soon the confidence will be high enough by Trumpf&EU-minions to press Russia with more involvement. Russia seems to only object it - not making any moves to derail it.
I could be wrong but too many here are dreaming instead of thinking.
Lots of copium here. Wars are full of unpredictable consequences especially in the modern era, and the leadership of any country should seek to bring them to a close sooner rather than later. The SMO is longer than the Great Patriotic War and the Kremlin is still a long way off from destroying the AFU.
It appears the Kremlin just doesn't get it. The US and its imperialist allies in the West will never give up on their aim of destroying Russia no matter how it long it takes. Just as they would like to see the enslavement of China again.
Excellent synopsis!!
You appear to have a high regard for your opinions, Mickey. Ofc you are pronouncing judgement on things that are still in flux. The biggest conflict in West Asia since WWII has just begun and you're already calling Iran's strategy futile. Perhaps from your throne in the heavens you see clearer than we mere mortals.
No offence Alphabet…I stick my head out. And you and others are free to chop it off. Been around for so long that I rather speak up rather than humming the gospel of others. I think you should read John Galtsky emminent commentary if you find mine as over the top.
“Irans people will survive anyway in one form of autocracy or the other.”
Honest. If they can’t fight they should get out of the politics business. If they’d give in to America’s demands 100 little girls would be playing in the park today. Would they have minded to have grown up in a west oriented regime? I suspect they wouldn’t have noticed. Either you do your best to destroy your enemy or roll over. There’s nothing worse than leadership without balls, no wonder Americans are confident, they might be evil but they’re bold.
Still, let’s see what happens. Though if the Iranians give up again I’ll probably take a more serious break from all this malarkey, I’m coming to the view I’m going to die surrounded by this decay. To everyone according to their Kharma.
They not bold, they're bullies.
If the typically much poorer, much smaller opponent fights back, then the big tough Americans find a reason to go home.
Agree. Peaceful living is much better than antagonism.
However, if someone has a wish to kill you whatsoever its better to kill first.
Don't tell me you also worked in a fortune-telling attraction at Disneyland? How's Green Midget doing? And Snow White?
Discussing off-topics, you can do on other Substack.
Presenting an opinion is offending you. Dont read then - buy a ticket.
Ah! So you own this form and Simply is your employee? The way you're saying it, like the green dwarf with his demands, I might think so but not believe it. Your opinion doesn't offend me, and when I post like this, it's because I find it better than crying out about the profound stupidity of the person I'm replying to. Should I buy a ticket to Disneyland?
You prefer happy horseshit?
Well, yes if truth be known and we all know that there is little 'happy horseshit' floating around these days. But to constantly go on about it to the almost total exclusion of the positives (and there are positives in my opinion) is not constructive - again, my opinion only. It is easy to identify and hammer on the negatives in any situation, but true analysis will explore both.
I am a realist. You obviously prefer happy horseshit.
For FF things look only bleak. A realistic person has the ability to see things from different perspectives, but it doesn't work for the cat.
'nomen est omen'
If things were different, i would react differently.
Looks like your "favorite Kurds" are going to be used again against Iran this time and they learned absolutely nothing in all these years:-)
Yup. They keep coming back for more.
Because THE IRANIANS ARE RETARDED.
How old is your civilization? (if you belong to any)
Iran's civilization is about to die of old age, dipshit. They're living in the past and can't figure out how to protect their top leadership from assassination by missile strike. And when they "fight back," they tell their enemies when, where, and what they're going to strike.
There's no "honor" in modern warfare, the dead don't win wars. The Iranians apparently didn't get the memo.
They're retarded, just like you.
ah, you are a Ukrainian jew...
And you are a retarded jew.
why the hysterics? something is wrong in your life?
I don't think I ever said they weren't bombed at all. I said a deal was made for the B-2s to freely hit the sites, and a limited amount of time, such that the damage may have been questionable.
Ok. I get your point. Your eloquent words in numerous articles has made me an impression of "denial" that these attacks also heavily damaged Irans resources. This one from today "This only further confirms the fraud of last summer’s strikes because the B-2s were made to “knock the door down” in precisely this type of opening volley."
"Fraud" for me is something that is close to not ever happened.
I think US%Israel deliberately made a 12-day War just to test Iran and Irans answer.They then assessed the situation, damage done in Iran and damaged sustained by themselfes. They also tested how "dumb" they are believing in negotiations in one hour, the next being killed at home. This next round was done irrespectively of what the Oman negotiations had resulted in.
FWIW: it is fraud. It was purely theater that accomplished nothing. Ted Postel is a nuclear weapons expert from MIT with extensive knowledge of how the “bunker buster” would have reacted if it did work. HIs conclusion, “No Way!” Additionally, there is ISR showing Iran removing whatever was at Fordrow before the bombing.
Postel also says that with the enriched uranium it has now (which Iran was enriching to get Trump to back off on his threats) it would take only a couple of weeks in a room about the size of an apartment to produce weapons grade materials.
IIRC, the interview was with Diesen, but it may have been Judge Nap.
The attack may have been ”negotiated” but was very real. It destroyed a lot.
If they now have 10 ton of enriched uranium and can fix it to weapongrade in a couple of weeks - why wait, Fatwah or not?
Oh, yes, they died in between…
Fraud is fraud. No one said there weren't B2 bombers over Iran. No one said the bombs weren't dropped.
You keep saying the US is going to win. The US is only using Air Power. As Johnson just said in the Diesen interview out today, "Air Power alone has never won a war."
Even if Israel launches all of their nukes, Iran will still be there.
Maybe listen to Johnson:
https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/larry-johnson-the-us-will-exhaust
You never offer up a source so one is forced to believe you're just making stuff up.
Dont make up stuff: ” You keep saying the US is going to win. ”
What I say is that Iran is doing dumb things. Big difference.
I comment on the sources presented by Simplicius.
Look on the bright side. You're witnessing evolution in action: when predators kill off weak and incompetent prey, that clears the way for stronger and more competent prey to improve the prey species.
What you see in Iran today is the results of extraordinary incompetence by the leadership. That seems to be the result of a toxic mix of three ingredients that have combined to work against the interests of the revolution and the people and government of Iran.
The first ingredient is the counterproductive pride of the Persian people. There's a national streak in them of pride and arrogance, real hubris, that is all the stronger for being unearned. It is such a powerful national characteristic that it often leads them to terrible mistakes.
You see that hubris in their relationships with each other, always positioning. It comes out in their relationships with would-be allies, like the haughty rejection of closer military ties with Russia or economic ties with China. Just a few days ago Iranian authorities detained RT's correspondent/anchor Rick Sanchez in Iran and interrogated him for over two hours. What the fuck were they thinking doing that to an ally who had been very effectively communicating the depth of support among the Iranian population for their own government? They did the same thing on a far worse scale when they seized the US embassy and took American diplomats hostage in the opening days of their revolution: that totally undisciplined act of unearned hubris simply guaranteed a fifty year war with the US, not something they needed when they could have acted rationally after deposing the Shah.
But nope, there's that crazy hubris streak in the Persians that reminds me of the Poles, always eager to give rein to arrogance. Brothers, dial it back, please. It's not helping.
The second ingredient is allowing religion to destroy the technological basis of sovereignty, meaning the fatwah against the only weapons, nuclear weapons, which can prevent the annihilation of Iran by Israel, the United States, and the Sunnis. The Saudis have nuclear weapons, you know, and they pride themselves on being very observant Muslims. In fact, one possible end to Iran is a joint nuclear strike on Iran by both Israel and the Saudis acting together. There is that great a hatred for Iran by the Saudis. Whether the fatwah is being strictly observed or whether it has held back Iran to limiting itself to achieving rapid breakout capability for a limited number of nukes, it seems to have had a poisonous effect on Iran developing the nuclear weapons it needs to ensure its survival.
That's lethal damage in the modern arena of predator states versus prey. It is as if religious fundamentalism has ensured that Iran will be the defenseless hamster, fat with untapped oil revenues, dropped into a terrarium to feed the Israeli and American pythons.
No country in history that has seriously tried has taken 30 years to create nuclear weapons. Every country that has seriously tried has managed to do it in well under ten years, with the average time to breakout steadily reducing as nuclear know-how and technology have diffused into general science that's available to any third grader anywhere with a WiFi connection.
That tells us that there is a high probability Iran really did take seriously the religious fatwah by sclerotic leaders like Khamenei. That will have a terminal effect just as fatal as the religious fatwah against the printing of books other than the Koran had many centuries ago on Islamic countries, guaranteeing they would remain primitive prey in a world of technologically advancing predator states.
That brings me to the third element in the toxic triad, extreme incompetence. It's hard to tell what causes that incompetence. It could be a result of the first factor, arrogance, or it could simply be the result of terrible education, a lack of awareness of the basic technologies and capabilities that govern the modern world, but it certainly isn't genetic stupidity. Persians have always been very smart people, which is perhaps the root of their unearned arrogance. When you know you're smarter than everybody around you it's very easy to be lulled into unearned arrogance.
But extreme incompetence it is to have group meetings of your leadership when you know that two of the world's most technologically advanced intelligence and military powers have promised to kill your leadership. Likewise, failing to protect your leadership is a gross lapse in competence. I realize it is not easy when your regime is shot through with traitors (yet another indication of incompetence) to protect your leaders, nor is it easy to build bunkers deep enough to resist US bunker-busting bombs. But it can be done if you are competent.
It is also extreme incompetence for Iran to have taken "hours" to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases. Any competent leadership would have arranged alert forces to launch on warning or within a few minutes of the joint Israeli and US attack.
The bottom line is that the combination of arrogance, religious opposition to measures needed to ensure Iran's survival, and extreme incompetence all emanate from the leadership. If those leaders have been killed as Israel and the US claim, that could be an opportunity for more pragmatic and competent leaders to take their place. But one thing is for sure, as evolution has demonstrated with ruthless efficiency for a billion years, survival of the fittest leaves no room for the survival of the unfit.
It could be that among all of them Khamenei himself knew he had failed his country. It could be that he felt his role at the end was to be the martyr who would galvanize change in his country, that he himself resolved to clear the way for more effective leaders, and that is why he had the personal courage not to run and hide, but instead to take the blows of Satan onto himself.
As an American I am deeply saddened that my country has taken the path of lawlessness. The US was not in any imminent danger from Iran. What just happened was the launching of another illegal war by a President who doesn't give a shit about the Constitution or US law. That's been the pattern for hundreds of wars launched by US Presidents who have ignored the clear, black and white dictate of the Constitution that only Congress can start wars so nobody should be surprised that Trump, again, has started an illegal war.
But you can't say this attack came as any sort of surprise to the Iranians. Sad as it is to blame the victim, in this case it's clear Iran itself failed to take measures against the predator it knew was stalking it. Now we all know that if you fail to develop nuclear weapons, as North Korea did, you will never have true sovereignty and you may be erased from the world of nations.
The bright side is your comment! Far better analysis and conclusion than Simplicius article (he is ”good”-you are better).
Yes, I agree with it all John. I have long advocated that the teocratic rule of Iran was detrimentral to the nations interest. Nothing to add to your eloquent writing.
Regarding North Korea you are also right but I fear Trumpf, if he gets away with this adventure, will be so full of hubris himself, that he will try to tke out Fat Kim also. Why wait until they have really long range missiles…
I always wondered why all the “death to america, death to israel” rhetoric was necessary. It seemed so counterproductive and out of place in modern age. I don’t think the smarter, more competent people will take place. It is more likely the IRGC hardliners will take over and run the whole thing into the ground.
Yes, Death to America my make for good internal propaganda, maybe, but externally.... They may cease to believe you are serious, or worse they take them seriously and work to eliminate the threat.
I think it's a case of boomers are going to do what boomers are going to do, in terms of messaging. In the US, they write emails in all caps, in Iran "Death to America". Same difference.
I'm not too sad for the clerics (while not wanting to be on the same side as the Neo-Cons either). They're a bunch of fundamentalist who are basically preaching to the goat herder/f*** class of the country. The sort of people that need to claim God powers because they can't make a rational argument, should not be near power.
You mean like the Jews in Israel and dual US Israeli citizens who view you as subhuman?
vermin are only ever presented in lower case, examples:
jew
americans
see, today you learned something about jews, americans and etymology,
so go get a nice cookie, a glass of milk and give mummy her laptop back
English comprehension is not your strong suit, apparently. Because I was saying exactly the same thing as you, but from the other viewpoint. Yes, jews view the rest of us as vermin.
Then you have no idea what it actually means in Iran.
The entire Congress you mention is controlled by AIPAC, so there is no safety in demanding that the US stick to the Constitution.
GW said it best - "It's just a g-d piece of paper."
Face it - the US is simply Israel's bitch, and it does what it is told.
But your spiel, repeated twice, about the pre eminence of the theory of evolution, is completely false.
If it were such a powerful survival mechanism, then we wouldn't have women running about today with rings in their noses, blue hair, and hell bent on destroying their babies.
Species are designed to co-exist in a divinely-ordained syncreticism; and they are all created perfectly for the niche they are designed to fill.
The problem with the world is not physical, ie a lack of sufficient adaptation to our environment - it's spiritual, and it's called "sin."
As for your point about Iran's foolishness for not developing nuclear weapons - nuclear weapons are associated with certain post facto problems; whereas an attritional war with the two great satans will assuredly result in the non nuclear destruction of both.
Even Aesop hinted at this when he wrote his fable about the tortoise and the hare.
Seeing the good having the bomb is doing Russia there certainly is a case for an advantage to not having it. You could conduct a conventional war against the US more freely and achieve a political victory without providing existential justification to the American leadership to launch against you. They can always retreat while saying “we’ll, if we really wanted to destroy them everybody knows we could”.
"If it were such a powerful survival mechanism, then we wouldn't have women running about today with rings in their noses, blue hair, and hell bent on destroying their babies."
Actually, that's a great example of evolution in action. What usually takes many millennia can happen in the blink of an evolutionary eye when really maladaptive behaviors emerge in a population.
Evolution doesn't work to ensure the maladapted survive, it works to ensure the maladapted over time are replaced by more adapted versions. That's exactly what's happening in the US and other pervert Western societies where populations that have higher proportions of women "hell bent on destroying their babies" are being out-birthed by populations where women have lots of babies and love them enough to help them grow into adulthood to have even more babies.
It's why Caucasians of European descent are headed into being a minority within the US and already are minorities in many urban areas, and it's also why the demographics of large swaths of Paris look more like Africa than France.
Regarding an attritional war with the two great satans, to win that attritional war Iran has to survive and I don't think it can do that without nuclear weapons to defend itself. Good examples of other oil-rich countries that couldn't pull off an attritional win against the US or the US plus Israel are Libya and Syria.
It doesn't look like any of the regional powers around Israel will be able to pull off an attritional win against Israel. They're either sell-outs or have even deeper competency problems than Iran.
On the other hand, Israel is supremely competent at being a regional satan. It's not going to go away until somebody like Ansar Allah gets nuclear weapons and then uses them against Israel. That easily could take another 50 or even 100 years.
Evolution is supposedly all about physical changes - nobody has ever spoken about it relating to intellectual ones - if it did, then Africans would have IQs somewhere above room temperature after all this time.
Remember - "mankind came out of Africa," so the process should be more marked there than anywhere else.
There isn't a shred of evidence for evolution anyway - it's a completely discredited notion - it could only ever have happened if an initial life form emerged that could evolve, and having examined how complex even so called primitive life forms are, then it is clear that they could only have been designed, and then animated - the likelihood of random changes producing such complexity is mathematically, zero.
Dr Steven Meyer goes into the details in his book Signature in the Cell, and expands upon it in his Return of the God Hypothesis.
But evolution has nothing to do with the decline in white populations; they are being outnumbered by design, ( jewish instigated - see the comments of Barbara Lerner Specter and Profesor Noel Ignatiev ) - and also encouraged not to have children, because they are obliged by the jewish feminist doctrine to abandon motherhood in exchange for working in an office throughout their fertile years.
Whatever you think about what Iran has to do to survive, wars are always decided in favour of the local population rather than an aggressor colonialist one, and already, the first 200 CIA and US troop bodies are being unloaded back home in the US from C130's.
And Trump told you there were only three dead.
Next he'll be telling you that evolution's true, too - and you will believe that as well.
"There isn't a shred of evidence for evolution anyway - it's a completely discredited notion "
OK, Tim, thanks for letting us know where you stand on that.
All we need now is your defence of the indefensible, and we're done.
This is the right analyses of the situation.
Iranian hubris and arrogance led them to defeat and future slavery.,
This is much like what happened to Serbs who were also terribly arrogant, specially from 1988. and their "so called anti bureaucratic revolution", before defeated by USA in 1999. Now they are kissing American ass like everybody else in Eastern Europe.
is Yiddish your family's native language, cotra?
No, but it could be Putin's family native language.
Great, well-thought-out piece. Thank you.
LOL, as I started to read your deep comment I thought of the Poles...and was going to add that...but you already hit the nut on the head.
Beautifully written American bullshit;
“But you can't say this attack came as any sort of surprise to the Iranians. Sad as it is to blame the victim, in this case it's clear Iran itself failed to take measures against the predator it knew was stalking it. Now we all know that if you fail to develop nuclear weapons, as North Korea did, you will never have true sovereignty and you may be erased from the world of nations.”
Do you have even the slightest clue about conventionally-armed Iranian missiles? Do you honestly think Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6 can take down a hypersonic missile? And you talk of Iranian arrogance? At least you admit that they’re intelligent…
"Do you have even the slightest clue about conventionally-armed Iranian missiles?"
Of course I do. Thank you for taking the time to let us all know you don't.
You know, when I visited the Iranian military displays at the big international arms shows in Moscow over the last couple of years not once did I see you there. OK, I suppose that going in person to talk with the Iranians about their arms is not something you can afford to do, but the least you could do is try to read up on what they have available for weapons systems so you don't blather such incredibly stupid nonsense.
To take an example, let's look at the intensely stupid second question you asked: "Do you honestly think Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6 can take down a hypersonic missile?"
Why, exactly, is that an intensely stupid question? Easy. It's intensely stupid because Iran has a negligible number of hypersonic missiles, that is, the real deal hypersonic missiles and not simple ballistic missiles which some nitwits confuse with the real thing, so it really doesn't matter what the performance is of those air defense systems against hypersonics.
Ballistic missiles have been "hypersonic" in the sense of re-entering the atmosphere at several times the speed of sound since the 1950's. That's been going ever since the US used its harvest of Nazi rocket scientists from WWII to evolve ballistic missiles like the Redstone from V2 technology captured after WWII (interestingly enough, the US in the closing days of the war violated one of the very first treaties it had with the USSR by stealing a motherload of V2 technical documents and manufactured rocket parts from the USSR's assigned territory). Even relatively short range (hundred fifty miles or so) ballistic missiles fielded by the US in the 1950's shot up in high parabolic trajectories, climbing hundreds of miles up into space (even above the height of the International Space Station's current orbit) before re-entering to strike the Earth a mere hundred and fifty to two hundred fifty miles away. A big problem was the heating of the warhead on reentry, which was solved by a variety of means, mostly using ablative coatings.
But that's not what intelligent people mean by "hypersonic" missiles these days since such high arcs with all kinds of heat getting thrown off, like a meteor, on reentry can be seen from a thousand miles around and provide plenty of cues for interceptors. In productive conversation among intelligent people the word "hypersonic" in the context of missiles is used to mean those missiles that can fly at strong multiples of the speed of sound, typically seven to nine times the speed of sound, on low trajectories near the ground. That's what gives them an advantage because the low trajectory means you need close in radar or sensors to spot them, and then you have too little time to set up a good intercept solution, even if you have ultrafast short range interceptor missiles.
Flying at hypersonic speed in really thick air low down is difficult, so difficult that despite the US throwing billions of dollars at the problem it has yet to crack the code of how to do that. Russia has, of course. Iran is said to have done it, but that's one of those "believe it when you see it" claims, and even if it is true it clearly is true only for a relative handful of what must be hyper-expensive missiles. Building one of those that can carry a significant warhead, hundreds of kilograms, is even harder, so it's highly likely that Iran has not achieved that. Ah, and building one of those that can carry a significant warhead that will not disintegrate low down as it covers a significant distance and that will strike accurately is even more difficult.
That's always been Iran's problem with ballistic missiles. It has plenty of them but their accuracy sucks. That's no surprise as it is extremely difficult to get good accuracy with ballistic missiles. Even in the 1970's and early 1980's typical accuracies were only plus or minus about one hundred meters and many missiles fielded by the US were only plus or minus *four hundred meters*.
A good example of what it takes to improve accuracy was the evolution in US ballistic missiles from the Pershing I to Pershing II. Pershing 1 was fielded in the 60's and had a range of about 250 to 450 miles. It's accuracy was about half a mile, pretty shitty accuracy for anything without a nuclear warhead. Pershing II came out in the 1980's with a range of about 1100 miles with accuracy of about 40 meters (half a football field) but that dramatic increase in accuracy required an extraordinarily complex and expensive terminal guidance radar setup, where a radar in the missile compared the terrain it scanned to a stored set of terrain elevation maps to make adjustments. Doing that required huge infrastructure to precisely map terrain elevation from orbit using billion dollar satellites as well as extraordinary logistics to feed such data down to tactical Pershing II units in Europe. That technology also sucks in relatively flat terrain, since there are fewer distinct features to match to.
Iran does have a lot of ballistic missiles, but they're all relatively simple ballistic missiles without such terminal guidance razzle dazzle. It's clear from their performance in the 12 day war that their accuracy is about what you'd expect from the level of technology they've fielded: anywhere from 100 meter CEP to 500 meter CEP. It took the US phenomenal effort and hundreds of billions in 2026 dollars to achieve such accuracy back in the day, as well as shooting off hundreds if not thousands of test shots, so that the Iranians have achieved such accuracy while spending far less than the US both in money and test shots is certainly impressive. But it's still shit accuracy for conventional explosive warheads if you're aiming at specific buildings where missing by a football field, or even half a football field, is not going to destroy the building.
The US didn't care about such things because they were in the business of fielding tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in the 1 kiloton to 400 kiloton range on those missiles, so missing by half a football field was not a big deal when the target was an airfield or a troop concentration or a city. But Iran is striking with conventional warheads.
That's why *most* of the reports of strikes by Iran are weirdly off target, like hitting highways, hitting some building within a facility like an airport or port that's spread over a few square kilometers, but only much more rarely a hit on some significant building.
And Iron Dome, Patriot, THAAD or even the SM-6, aren't all that good even at hitting the relatively simple ballistic missiles Iran launches. They do get their fair share of intercepts but, given what total shit the oversold Patriot is, they often miss, like in the famous video making the rounds where a Patriot fires three times and still misses an incoming missile.
But those air defense systems are much better at knocking down cruise missiles and relatively slower drones, and that's what Iran has the most of.
So, to sum up, Iran doesn't have enough hypersonics for those to make a difference. They might not have enough hypersonics to even be noticed. So your comment about knocking down the hypersonics was just idiotic.
But to continue summing up, Iran does have very many ballistic missiles, although those all suffer from having relatively poor accuracy. Fire enough of them, hundreds of them, and yes, you should get some damage at, say, a US base that's targeted. But you have to fire very, very many and not just a dozen here or a dozen there as Iran has announced they've fired.
Finally, US and Israeli air defense systems are reasonably effective against cruise missiles and bigger drones. Iran may be able to fire enough of those to deplete available interceptor missiles required for those US and Israeli air defense systems, and then, possibly, Iran could continue firing cruise missiles and bigger drones to hit high value targets more precisely (Iran's cruise missiles and bigger drones have better accuracy than Iran's ballistic missiles).
But all that is a really tough row to hoe when under fierce attack by the US and Israel. That's why nukes are such a game changer. Drop two or three of those on Tel Aviv, say, 400 kilotons each, and you don't give a shit that the ballistic missile delivering them is only accurate give or take a football field.
It's also worth pre-positioning a nuke in a target city. Had Iran pre-positioned just five or ten 400 kiloton nukes, one each per major US city, that certainly would have deterred the US from attacking Iran.
Well, John
there are nations who win, and are ready to accept all the rules of evolution to be able to win,
like British, Americans, Sunnis
and there are nations who are only accepting the win if it can be achieved according to their own rules
Irish, Shia
This is a of course a simple, black and white division, a dichotomy, positioning nations just on one axis, and most nations are somewhere else, in multidimensional space, but Shia i.e. Iranians are a clear example of a culture ready to accept sacrifice if needed to achieve victory on their own terms
Changing your strategy to accommodate what your enemies are doing is not the first choice in these cultures.
To British, Americans, it may seem like arrogance, i.e. defiant refusal to submit to reality
Why don't you obey the rules of real world? Why don't you do the obvious? Why don't you submit to reality?
What you call reality is not what Iranians, Afghans perceive as ultimate authority.
According to reality US should have won the war in Afghanistan,
Where do you get your "one side did a KO" information from? Is the war over already?
My fault. They delivered a Knock-out but Iran is up on 8.
Next round we will see but the dithering with a few Shaheds is underwhelming.
You dont punish arabs in Bahrain when the enemy is in Tel-Aviv.
Again, where do you get your information from?
Same as you I presume. I base my conclusion of what is seen and what is NOT seen (but expected based on my predictions or expectations).
Iran has a narrow window to show Isreal their wrath and deliver some respect. I doubt.
Is there something rotten in the State of Denmark?
Iran is defeated as it was unable or unwilling to obtain the Bomb.
From the moment they decided not to have the Bomb they were defeated.
We are also witnessing the terrible weakness of China and Russia.
Russia is occupied with its own war but China, that is the next on the US list did almost nothing.
Simply speaking. the global elites converge to capitalism, deeply subservient to Anglo Saxon/ Jewish elites. Not only the global elites but most of wage slaves around the world. It is a strong dream, an attractive dream. Nothing can wake the young consumers, Israel can kill 100 or 10000 or 1000000 children it does not matter anything for the EU/USA consumers.
A very clear observation, Co(n)tra!
One thing that might wake them up is ten-dollar gasoline. The "young consumers" of the US are not the problem; they know they're screwed. This war is on the boomers. Again.
100%
The number of posts decrying Iran as some evil nation that does unspeakable evil, while being totally evil is horrifying. When not a single of those boomers has any actual idea about what's going on and how they've been propagandized nonstop since birth.
The warmongering boomers' most damaging trait is their complete lack of critical thinking.
I don't know that China and Russia are weak - they certainly are not.
But the US is like a rabid dog that cannot restrain itself - if China and Russia take up the sword, world destruction is imminent. They are being circumspect and showing restraint for the good of mankind.
I see your point, but I don't think appeasement of the Epstein class is for the good of mankind. They need to be confronted and put down as fast as possible. All delay just makes nuclear confrontation more, rather than less, likely.
"They need to be confronted and put down as fast as possible."
Well, that contradicts your following sentence: "All delay just makes nuclear confrontation more, rather than less, likely."
That's because confronting the "Epstein class" (I think an overuse of Epstein, but what the heck I'll go along if we understand that means the pervert / corrupt US deep state...) and putting it down can only be done via nuclear confrontation. So doing that not only makes nuclear confrontation more likely, it guarantees it will happen immediately.
I share your frustration but I cannot say for sure what the solution to that is which I can be more or less sure avoids massive nuclear escalation. I suspect one possible approach if you are willing to roll the dice with your nation's population is to call the US's bluff in their game of chicken.
The US thinks it can destroy Russia's Nordstream pipeline because Russia won't go nuclear to avoid destroying its own people in the inevitable mutual assured destruction. OK, fine. Two can play that game.
Suppose Russian submarines launched cruise missiles equipped with large but conventional explosive warheads at critical US infrastructure, like refineries and oil and LNG terminals? The US depends on a small handful of refineries to supply gasoline and diesel fuel. Exploding a few LNG tankers in port would annihilate the terminals.
What's the US going to do? Go nuclear? If they do Russia vaporizes US cities.
None of the above will happen, but hey, the US has set the precedent.
"Nuclear confrontation" was possibly the wrong word. I meant "nuclear exchange," to be clear, because I think calling the bluff is exactly what needs to happen. A year or two ago the bluff could have been called, perhaps, with only slight risk or harm - sinking ships off coast of Odessa, perhaps, or bombing a supply line from the west in Poland or even in Ukraine. Taking out Zelensky, taking out the parade of clowns visiting him in Ukraine... stuff like that. What it takes now to quell the disease I don't know. Rabies is highly contagious and always fatal.
You could be right about that, that calling the bluff earlier would have been better. The Russian leadership is open about their regret they did not do that sooner. Putin, for example, famously commented it was a mistake to wait from 2014 to 2022 before giving up on diplomacy and undertaking the defense of ethnic Russians through 'military-technical' means.
Now that we have France babbling about increasing its nuclear arsenal and handing out nukes to other Europeans (they mean, of course, Germany), the stakes are much higher and calling their bluff is much riskier.
But it could be done. I'd send a Russian tanker full of oil to Cuba to run the US blockade, letting Trump know in advance that nuclear weapons will be used to defend against any attack on that tanker. Move missile cruisers into position around the US flotilla blockading Cuba so the US knows Russia is not bluffing.
But the only way to call the US's bluff is direct military action/conflict with the US and that has very high likelihood of going nuclear even if the initial kinetic contact is non-nuclear. That's not something any leader with a strong grasp on reality discounts as a possible, even likely, outcome.
So it's not genius but cheap hindsight to say Russia was wrong not to call the US's bluff years ago. At the time that was an extremely rational decision based on very solid experience of 80 years to believe the Americans and their stooges had not lost contact with reality. At the time nobody could say that that the US response to Russia's action in February 2022 would be to place the entire US/stooge train on the rails that lead to nuclear war. That degree of irrationality had never before been seen from the US.
So what we are really talking about now is how do you deal with a nuclear armed state, the US, that has severe psychological problems, at the level of complete breaks with reality. Nothing in the US's history has prepared the country to handle the decline and fall of its empire. On the contrary, the past 70 years of the US's experience as a nation have put into power multiple generations of people committed to fakery over reality.
If they didn't have thousands of nuclear weapons you'd deal with them the way you would a rabid dog: put the miserable thing down. But the thousands of nuclear weapons they have put you in peril if you try that.
Many world consumers are even as pathological as Epstein.
There are many wannabe Epsteins.
Russia and China should sink a US warship and dare the US to retaliate. See how tough they are and how long they want to live.
Russia and China are led by the pr capitalist elites. They adore and love th USA more then their own countries.
Nonsense. That the leadership in Russia and China love their own countries is precisely why they don't want to do anything stupid to destroy those countries. The problem with elites loving themselves more than their countries and their people is a western problem.
If the jews are permitted to destroy Iran and install their puppet prince Pavlavi, the Shah's son, as king, Russia and China will have done more to destroy their own countries than sinking a US warship would ever have done.
The best way to stop a bully is to punch him in the face. If you allow him to continue to bully, the bullying will never stop and will get even worse. That's why we are where we are today; no one did anything as the jews ran roughshod over everything, with their golem, the US, as their "muscle."
"Russia and China will have done more to destroy their own countries"
Ah, no, that would have absolutely zero effect on both Russia and China.
The leadership in Russia has pushed many soldiers to die while participating in false negotiations. Putin is just an instrument of Jewish and Russian oligarchs. Simmilar to Trump.
Russia is awfully pathetic in its cowardice.
Chinese and Russian people are spiritually obedient to the western gods of massive consumption.
"Russia is awfully pathetic in its cowardice."
Ha, ha. You talk big for somebody who won't ever get near a front line where you'll face Russians.
Just a friendly tip, by the way: say that stuff in some resort where Russians are within earshot and the next thing you know you'll be looking online for dental implants you can afford.
But you don't do that sort of thing, do you? You just mouth off on social media where you know the mathematics of the IQ bell curve guarantee there will be at least some people dumb enough to believe you.
A good place to start.
Maybe there's a new clique coming into power in Iran and they just used Israel to help them shuffle things up?
Iran needs atom bombs ASAP
This sums up my thoughts.
https://i.imgur.com/eb6ozFV.jpeg
We will see if the IRGC go through with it announcement. If not then de escalation and Israel will make a case for a dismember of Iran later
Israel won't exist in a couple of years but Iran will and it will remain united.
Based on what?
Historical and psychological realities. The Iranians have a history going back 7000 years and a deep love for and commitment to their nation and their land. That is powerful psychologically and emotionally.
Israel was invented 78 years ago in a state of paranoid fear, rage and violence and has a commitment only to attacking other countries and taking their land. That is disempowering psychologically and emotionally.
Decades of sanctions has made Iran more self sufficient and independent.,
Israel is self sufficient in nothing but ego, hate, greed and violence.
Iran can survive without the world. Israel cannot survive without the world, and the world does not need Israel.
Yes, some people, ignorant ones believe negative things about Iran but most do not.
Most people on the planet loathe, detest and hate fizzrael and support the Palestinians, including most Americans and a majority of young american Jews.
Israel's genocide has revealed the Fifth Column invasion and interference in American politics, media and Government by Ziojewraelis and Americans will get increasingly angry about that as they suffer even more because of the wars demanded by the Israeli terrorist State.
South Africa was stronger, bigger and more independent than Israel could ever be and still its economy was crippled by boycotts and sanctions. Boycotts will grow against Israel as a pariah rogue state and sanctions are beginning and will increase. When Israelis are despised around the world, cannot travel, cannot sell anything, cannot buy anything the economy will implode. Already many Israelis are going back to where they came from and leaving behind the raging religious lunatics who could not run a toilet let alone a State.
Iranians are a people . Jews are a religion. No comparison.
Judaism was invented in what is now Iraq around 3,000 years ago. Hindus believe their religion is a million years old. Who cares?
But you have to do apples with apples, religion with religion and peoples with peoples.
Ok. Yes Persian people and the other 39 indegous population in Iran will survive but I am not sure about the nation. The couldnt defend themselves when they needed. They chickened out in June 2025.
Israel has become a pariah thanks to their behaviour against the Palestinians and others. But who will protest or boycott? Its a crime in almost all western world nations. And now they bragg about their influence in US and other parts of the world.
I have always said that we dont need teocratic states. Iran was one and Israel is another.
Mate, after 7000 years they are all Persians.
The Iranians did not chicken out in 2025. They were accurate, selective and bashed the Israelis bigtime so the Israelis begged the US to intervene to stop it. Not this time.
None of our business if a state is theocratic. Only our business if they are a threat to others which Israel is.
Absolutely spot on. This isn't a response to Mikey but in general people who bring up the theocracy part are conveniently at best or malignantly at worse forgetting* that Israel is fundamentally a theocratic state, it's a "Jewish State" in its own word ffs! What exactly is a Jewish State without Judaism?
That is cope. The Iranians fought the anglo-american-zionists to a standstill. Both sides needed time to rest and reload. They did. And now they are fighting again. The anglo-american-zionists will not stop until the mullahs are gone and a puppet regime is in power in Tehran. The Iranians, Russians, and Chinese either need to put up or shut up.
No, they're not all Persians. Not even close.
Arabic people constitute about 2% of Iran’s population. Persians make up about 61%.
Other ethnicities include Azerbaijanis (~16%), Kurds (~10%), Lurs (~6%), Baluchis (~2%), and Turkmens (~2%).
The people 'need' what they choose to need. If the people of any country want a theocracy, who are you to say otherwise? Besides, you totally misunderstand Iran's political/religious relationship. Consider the name - Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Islamic and it is a republic. The have a political leadership elected by the people. And they have Islamic leadership charged with making certain that the republic and its leadership remains Islamic and follows Islamic principles and behaviour. The government of Iran makes its own decisions based on the people's interests. The Islamic leadership makes certain those decisions are made in accordance with Islamic law. I see nothing undemocratic about that.
Name the 39. Persians are the majority then toss in some Kurds, Tats, Gilaks and some early Christians like the Assyrians and Mandaeans and some Turks.
Never heard of ”Ignorance is a bliss”?
My answer to the comment was with the background wht will happen when Leadership fails and you no longer can scare people to submission.
Iran is indeed home to a diverse array of indigenous ethnic groups, primarily consisting of Iranic, Turkic, and Semitic peoples who have inhabited the region for millennia. Persians form of course the largest group, while others are concentrated in specific border or peripheral regions.
Be my guest, eat this list:
Ethnic Group
Approx. % of Population
Primary Regions/Provinces
Persians (Fars)
51-61%
Central and eastern Iran: Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, Razavi Khorasan, Yazd, Kerman, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Markazi, Qom, Semnan, southern Golestan, northern Sistan and Baluchestan.
Azerbaijanis (Azeris)
16-24%
Northwest: East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan; also parts of Hamadan, Qazvin, Markazi, Kurdistan, Gilan, Tehran.
Kurds
7-10%
West and northwest: Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Ilam, West Azerbaijan; scattered in North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan.
Lurs
2-6%
West: Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Hamadan, Markazi, Ilam, Isfahan, Fars, Bushehr, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad; seminomadic in western mountains.
Baloch (Baluch)
2%
Southeast: Sistan and Baluchestan; minorities in Kerman, Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan, Hormozgan, Mazandaran, Golestan.
Arabs
2-3%
Southwest: Khuzestan; smaller communities in Qom, Razavi Khorasan, Fars.
Turkmen
1-2%
Northeast: Golestan, North Khorasan; largest city Gonbad-e Kavus.
Gilaks
~4%
North: Gilan; some in western Mazandaran (Ramsar, Tonekabon), Golestan (Bandar-e Gaz, Kordkuy).
Mazanderanis
~4%
North: Mazandaran; populations in eastern Tehran (Firuzkuh, Damavand, Shemiranat), Semnan (Shahmirzad), Golestan.
Qashqai
~1% (part of Turkic groups)
South: Fars (around Shiraz), Khuzestan, southern Isfahan; nomadic herders.
Bakhtiari
~1% (related to Lurs)
Southwest: Zagros Mountains west of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan; seminomadic.
Talysh
<1%
North: Gilan (Hashtpar, Rezvanshahr, Fuman, Masuleh), parts of Astara, Ardabil.
Khorasani Turks
<1% (part of Turkic groups)
Northeast: North Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, Golestan.
Semnanis
<1%
East: Semnan province.
Larestanis (Achoms)
<1%
South: Fars (Lar, Lamerd), Bushehr, Hormozgan, Kerman.
Tats
<1%
Northwest: South Qazvin (Takestan county), near Alborz Mountains.
Khalaj
<1%
Central: Markazi (Arak), Qom.
Smaller indigenous or long-established groups like Brahuis (Sistan region) and isolated Dravidian-speaking communities (southeast Sistan) are also present but represent less than 1% combined.
Groups such as Armenians, Assyrians, Georgians, Circassians, Jews, and Mandaeans are historical minorities with ancient ties to the region but are often considered distinct due to their non-Iranic origins; they are concentrated in urban areas like Tehran, Isfahan, and Khuzestan.
Many groups, especially nomadic ones like Qashqai and Bakhtiari, maintain traditional lifestyles alongside settled communities.
So you prefer a democratic state.
Eva Vlaadingerbroek was speaking somewhere recently; she pointed out that if you were the majority, but are now only 49%, you will be outvoted, ( eg by incoming Somalis / Indians ) so as she said "How will that work out for you?"
At least a theocracy is based on certain moral principles; which of course neither Israel nor the US have.
The only one guiding the jew is the one which goes "Even the best of the Gentiles must be killed, as even the best of snakes must be killed."
Israel delenda est.
I think you have missed a couple of comments…
I choose (for Iran) an autocratic military rule over the teocratic clowns. If and when they are mature enough we can elaborate over ”democratic” rule whatever that is nowadays…
West has lost all morale principles but I do not wish for some muslim sharia.
I dont miss Khamenei att all. But it is wrongful for US/Israel to kill whatever foreign leaders they want.
jews have never been able to create a civilization: their supremacist hubris and indoctrinated hatred of "others" have consumed their energies. They always cling to other peoples' cultural achievements. Even their traditions are a motley collection of other peoples' rituals, dresses, headdresses, songs, languages, and so forth. Whatever is truly "theirs" -- like kol nidre and mishnah niddah 44b:9 -- is abhorrent to any decent person.
Do you mean Ottoman Turk Land or British land?
So how do you explain the Coptic Christians and where did they vanish?
The PLO was established when?
"Israel was invented 78 years ago in a state of paranoid fear, rage and violence and has a commitment only to attacking other countries and taking their land. "
Maybe a raging religious lunatic is the captain of the Gerald Ford, then.
But note - all the jews, whether young or old, in Israel, support the genocides; and so if those in the US don't seem to - don't believe them.
They are simply chameleons trying to blend in with the majority - take any one of them back to its native land and you will soon find out the truth about them.
So yes - "all jews are like that."
“Israel” is a propped up “country“, it cannot really survive without externalities. It will eventually run out of those.
”Propped up” or the best sucking?
that too.
Magical thinking. They own the governments of almost the entire world. They will stop surviving when, and only when, the world rises up and crushes the life out of them.
We are almost at sync but with two points as an extension. "They own the governments", indeed that's exactly what I meant when I said externalities. It's a plastic state, it has no organic life of its own. Second, we tend to overlook the fact that governments aren't the people anymore. Governments all around themselves have become parasitic. But yes, agree w/ your assertion. Sooner or later we, the people will have to snatch back our right of sovereignty.
You’re using words that don’t mean anything, though: “plastic,” no “organic” life of its own, your criticisms of the governments. Israel is a big tick that has attached itself to the largest sow on the farm. It’s the way ticks thrive. And Israel is thriving and will continue to thrive until eradicated, but this won’t happen “organically.” It will happen, if it ever does, because the world decides that it should be destroyed once and for all and takes specific action to rid of us the plague it embodies. There’s nothing inevitable about that at all, except that all living things, even grotesque parasites, eventually perish.
Logic says he would not have been in his compound for weeks. I think he is safely alive along with anyone else important and the Iranians are playing the game with the idiot Ameraelis.
Or he was a brave and noble man who refused to run and hide and believed his death would unite Iranians in strength, faith, trust and determination.
Whatever the answer it is win-win for Iran and lose-lose for the Ameraelis.
You think he is safe even when Iran has admitted he is dead?
the first casualty of war.... (etc; Hiram Johnson).
Too many more "win-wins" like this for Iran and there will be no Iran.
Iran is a huge country with very young, mostly male population
It has been reported (quoting shitrael spokescum) Khamenie was attending a meeting with high ranking Iranians at the time, the shitraelis discovered that and decided to attack earlier than planned to take advantage.
As this comes from the genocidal entity scepticism is required.
I believe it was the latter: "a brave and noble man who refused to run and hide". RIP.
Yes, it would fit more with who he appeared to be. Like the Palestinians the Iranians stand as a testament to courage and integrity in the face of the most terrible odds.
Said it before elsewhere, Iran should just target their water desal plants. Just hit one for show. A lesser one. No water = no israel.
They already did that according to TG channel intel slava
I saw something about that but on Twitter. Not sure if it's real or not. On Twitter some are saying - just hit the Wailing Wall. Nobody there right now. Israel has no boundaries / respect. So respond in kind... but maybe that comes later after China-Taiwan starts, then US is preoccupied. Israel less US help...
They did
good post. Thoughtful and well reasoned.
This will be resolved sooner rather than later...
Simplicius. Thank you for the great summary. What are your thoughts on why Iran has been targeting Dubai so much today? We have heard news about numerous strikes on Bahrain but very little it seems on Israel? Course Israel may have a media blackout imposed.
Also why did Netanyahu flee to Germany ?
To be honest it may seem like a lot but it was a few random drones here and there which easily get through since Dubai appears to have no defenses. For Iran it would be a minor trifle to send a few drones out of hundreds/thousands sent elsewhere. Some have even suggested it could be certain Iranian military units/commanders acting independently, but the most plausible reason so far is the one I gave in the article: that Iran may be trying to disrupt the region's economic hotspots to bring economic pain and force pressure on US to de-escalate.
There is a video of a burnt out building reported by Iran to be a CIA station.
And a couple of hours ago UAE reported 137 missile had been launched to date. I forget the drone count.
Dubai: Trump and co investments targetted, CIA HQ, and other military scum using hotel rooms as war rooms.
Ali Larijani - Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. Not a religious background
Bagdhad Bob 2.0
thanks Simplicius. I liked the video alot. I'm sad too today. Such a good man. The US excels in killing children and an 86 year old man. Victory. Satan truly rules and I'm getting scared for the first time about my quiet life in rural Nova Scotia. I'm going to make the long drive to town tomorrow to fill up my gas tank and buy my old horses some extra provisions. Wish I had more money. I can't even get my barn door open now because of the snow last week. But that's nothing compared to what Gaza has become. God bless Gaza. And Khamenei And his daughter and family. Iran takes such hits. I think when Vladimir Soloviev the first, said the anti-Christ will be brought down by the Israelis.....what his clairvoyant prophetic vision saw was the true descendants of the original Hebrews - the Palestinians and the entire Levant/Iranian Resistance - not those thugs from Romania and Poland
Such a good man? Please do tell who is your dealer and what are you taking?
Operation Jewffery Epstein is not going well.
yeah so I hear - I hope they got Net
Let me get this straight
US/Israel off the head of state of Iran. Levels his residence, murders his family with him
You still leave the possibility open like this is "managed" and there are off ramps and god knows what
Iran promises "dEvaSTatION BRO" and #nope. 0 US casualties so far, and I don't expect that to change much.
Why is it that if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a goddamn duck, you call it a gorilla?
This conflict is a capabilities argument. Who will run out first - AD missiles or Iranian TELs.
US Gulf allies got thrown to the wolves. Turns out when push comes to shove, Israel gets what it wants, every time
So your argument is that Iran's actions are to further propel the "Greater Israel Project" forward?
Interesting.
I think Bash means that Irans ”inactions” are enabling the Zionist project to expanding.
Most of the attacks have been on Gulf states and not Israel proper. The attacks are being successful. That swank hotel destroyed on Palm Island for example. Will the "citizens" of the Gulf states watch their nation get mauled and then not take out the failed leadership? The many videos of the Bahraini's cheering the successful missile attacks suggest they are not happy with the status quo.
And why is that? The only answer needed was an attack against Tel-Aviv.
A few missiles into Bahrain will not hurt US&Israel.
Iran carefully laid out what would happen if attacked by the US. They said the attack would be a US attack even if it was with Israeli planes. Consider, as a for instance, that Israel doesn't have the tankers. (As an aside, what the hell are all the tanker missions out of St. Croix all about? 4-8/day)
The point being made was Iran declared "open season" on all US allies. So far, they've only used "old missiles". The "new ones" aren't suppose to be deployed for another 24-48 hours. (Is this all BS?)
An attack solely on Tel Aviv would not have made it clear that Iran views this as a war with the USA.
Is this a War with USA really?
Or is it a War with the outspoken enemy Israel that onlu uses US Forces?
If they need 48 hours to prepare their own attack they are idiots.
Correct. Those IRGC thugs may look like gorillas, talk like a gorilla but they die like ducks in a pond.
Reading other comments here with ”wishful thinking” of Irans grandeur makes me pessimistic over mankind.
They just don't have the capability.
The results of the 12 day war seem to argue differently.
Your position reminds me of GM and his attacks on Putin for not pursuing the SMO with more urgency. His impatience fails to see the bigger picture.
I guess it is possible he's right (and so you too might be right).
But, I'd rather believe the pundits who explain that "slow and steady wins the race." As I already explained, I have my hopes that Trump's defeat here will lead to some serious reimagining of what the USA is.
Nima was being interviewed by Pascal and they were discussing that the ultimate target of the neocons is China. They pointed out that Mearscheimer predicted US actions in Ukraine would lead to a tighter bond between Russia and China, and that Iran has become part of that group.
I guess we'll see if mankind's greed is more powerful than his hope for cooperation. I guess I'm just a dreamer.
I find your causality strange. If Israel lost the 12 day war so badly, why did they just start another one?
They didnt. They started the last war and ended it when they wanted it to end - why did iran agree so easily to a ceasefire? - and now started up again but with their pet gorilla in the ring with them.
That's one way of looking at it I guess. I prefer the idea that Iran isn't overrun with a bunch of religious zealots that just want to kill everyone and bring about the end of the world.
You see them as a bunch of losers to be taken advantage of.
I didnt say that, but, this is the world we live in at the moment. Logically they should have gone for the bomb to even the scales
They should try not acting like losers to be taken advantage of.
Israel learnt they cannot attack Iran without massive support from the US. It stopped bombing raids that Israel historically carried out.
It worked.
It is ok to dream about another future than the one staring at you.
Just now we risk a situation where Trumpf and Netanyahu will acclaim a status of Heroes and unleash even more War and killing.
Hell. What about Cuba? Jordania? Why not start all over in Africa again?
Well, in Africa, France was kicked out of the Sahel, and the US was just recently "removed". It does seem that there is a lot to consider when making an evaluation.
"Always look on the bright side of life."
Pleased to dream along with you!
The Americans are proactive, decisive and aggressive.
Russia should learn from their example. Contrastnthe four year parade of fuckups that constitutes the "SMO".
100%
Yep. The ukie leadership should have been wiped out years ago. Sad that an attempt was made on Putin's life but none have been made against zelenski, Trump or Biden by either the Russians or Iranians.
The Russians have a weak leader. And seemingly compromised too.
Do you have to show your blatant stupidity? You don't know jack about the Russian mindset and calling the SMO a fuckup just shows how little you know.
So all you are able to express is "you're wrong!" and i probably know more of the Russian mindset than most of the self-proclaimed Russia whisperers here.
I'm also not afraid to call a fuckup a fuckup.
No matter how fucked up your reasoning might be in declaring it a fuckup....
"This conflict is a capabilities argument. Who will run out first - AD missiles or Iranian TELs."
True. It seems Iran is targeting logistics mostly - supply ships, ammo depots, what have you.
Lets see.
Slaughtering kids and innocents, including Khamenei's grandkid, seems to be for Purim?
Those guys are just trolling. They would have you believe they know everything. Their omniscience worshipped. Ofc they know very little by their comments. If they do know much it means they are on someone's payroll and not to be trusted anyway. So they either make shit up (probably) or are the lowest of humans destined for hell.
Side gig you say? For pocket money :D
Main gig, cognitive warfare is one of the primary domains of war. No military or intelligence operation would be without extensive troll farms and bot armies.
I have to remind myself of this every time I read their comments which I do increasingly less and less
0 admitted US casualties.
You don't seriously think they would announce it?
They just did.
Well, do you believe the Ukrainian casualty numbers Zelensky put out?
Oh course not but they are not going to hide casualty numbers for the simple fact that the media would get ahold of it from a family member or something and it would be international news for the next 3 years and they would impeach Trump again for the tenth time. Better to just say what the numbers are, which they did immediately, the families were not even notified yet and they had those numbers out.
Sometimes Killing the Main eaders brings the end of war. Sometime it continues. Depending on how the succession are planned and acutal take place.
Incompetence succession will be folded even faster.
I would think that the US tagging along to assassinate a religious leader would cause widespread localized retaliation events. Maybe I'm wrong, but shouldn't this act upset even the Sunni Muslims in the region?
Sunnis are next.
"next"????
Somehow, I don't think you've been paying attention.
So you think the Sunni Arab fake nations will be spared the coming years?
Israel has used the Sunni/Shia hostility since the 70ties.
Retard Erdogan is butthurt Iranians are targeting US bases in GCC countries. lmao
Oh, no. Not at all.
I'm just questioning "next"
Iraq is Sunni.
The Islamic terrorist groups are all Sunni, and most paid by the CIA.
Khamenei's martyrdom will ensure that this gets ugly . Iran not using its ballistic missile stocks makes no sense when it's in an existential struggle . I suspect they are waiting for the USA and Israel to have their assets concentrated where they can be severely damaged . The missile launches would have already allowed the Iranians to gain knowledge of where defences are located thanks to the Chinese . The Israelis didn't realise their vulnerabilities until late in the 12 day war . We will have a clearer picture in a few days .
Concentrated on all the 40 bases around Iran?
No. Tel Aviv. The US doesn't give a rat's ass about what is not Israel.
Yeh, soldiers in those bases are just a disposable trigger for emotional diplomacy.
"Some of you anti-war MAGA will die, but I am willing to accept that risk"
W🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: U.S Senator Lindsey Graham:
If we lose anybody in this operation, they will die a noble death because they will have sacrificed their lives to make us safer here at home.
https://t.me/keeptalking1/26695
Mikey,
Possible scenario: as air defences get depleted the assets will have to be concentrated to stay under the "defence umbrella" . They will have to stay in range for strikes so this is theoretically possible .
Ok, see your point. I think the Israeli/US forces are enough dispersed and they have too many bases.
Irans only chance is to deliver a deadly blow to Israel by ruining the Desalination plants and soread som dust from Dimona reactor. To hurt US they will have ti sink a US Carrier - nothing else matters.